https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/rssLatest posts from FRED Blogen{845860A1-88E4-48C2-9C90-18F4CF200FAF}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/10/early-signs-of-ai-driven-productivity-growth-in-information-sectorSince the advent of GenAI, productivity in the information sector has grown much faster than usual and much faster than the overall economy.Thu, 22 Oct 2026 08:00:00 -0500{2BFFD5CF-1D0D-4C72-995C-BBD1950D7BD8}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/10/which-businesses-are-using-ai-technologyMore than half of all businesses paid for an artificial intelligence (AI) product or service. Adoption rates jumped after ChatGPT's public launch in late 2022 and have risen steadily since.Mon, 19 Oct 2026 08:00:00 -0500{A5A7097D-2B9D-41A2-A2FB-77922B1169AB}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/10/Is-the-Treasury-convenience-yield-reboundingThe spread between AAA corporate bonds and Treasuries has widened since October 2025, suggesting a partial recovery in the Treasury convenience yield.Thu, 15 Oct 2026 08:00:00 -0500{8E252031-86F0-4F95-9BE7-3FB86EC5B8CE}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/10/assets-across-pension-typesAssets backing defined contribution pensions have grown far more than assets backing defined benefit pensions. But the former are also far more volatile.Thu, 08 Oct 2026 08:00:00 -0500{0E148F6C-36FF-4CC9-99F9-78D79F2739DB}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/10/connect-your-ai-assistant-to-FREDFRED's new MCP connector directs your AI assistant to the data you needSun, 04 Oct 2026 08:35:00 -0500{D1D69BA9-561C-4AE5-8DFF-3F2C9DE299D8}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/10/real-gdp-by-state-second-quarter-2026Bureau of Economic Analysis real GDP data for all US states for the second quarter of 2026Thu, 01 Oct 2026 09:14:00 -0500{217F44E2-2B93-44A5-AC31-4CA25C0F1AC8}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/09/what-is-the-treasury-general-accountAs with any household or business, even the federal government needs an account to handle its bills and income. This account, provided by the Federal Reserve, is called the Treasury general account. Mon, 28 Sep 2026 08:00:00 -0500{A4D42F2A-9BB7-4CBF-A6CD-04A7C25089F1}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/09/estimating-the-risk-of-recession-in-the-usA new dataset in FRED provides the monthly probability the US economy is in recession. The latest data, for August 2026, show that probability was 0.08%. The data FRED has added...Thu, 24 Sep 2026 08:00:00 -0500{22BFEF58-C138-4E85-BC55-362D51E89E55}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/09/fomc-summary-of-economic-projections-september-2026In a previous FRED Blog post, we discussed the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released by the FOMC this past June. In this blog post, we again use ALFRED to compare the latest set of...Mon, 21 Sep 2026 08:00:00 -0500{6CEF2C17-273B-40A7-B17E-FB9696B6F579}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/09/using-options-prices-to-measure-financial-riskThe Kansas City Fed uses options prices to measure how financial markets perceive the balance of risks for future short-term interest rates: a.k.a., the KC Policy Rate Skew. The data...Thu, 17 Sep 2026 08:00:00 -0500{D79E8E06-8FE1-4E7E-AB00-E756E55F2A61}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/09/measuring-money-with-m2The Fed’s monetary aggregates measure the amount of money in the economy. One such measure is M2, which includes liquid assets such as checking accounts but excludes non-liquid assets...Mon, 14 Sep 2026 08:00:00 -0500{B5041922-2507-4CE2-9D59-B0B3B887D6FD}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/09/a-new-calculation-for-subprime-credit-riskThe New York Fed’s consumer credit dataset is now calculated with a different methodology—one that includes 33 million more borrowers than before. The Consumer Credit Panel With a data...Thu, 10 Sep 2026 08:00:00 -0500{CC0F6E4C-6B3F-42B3-937B-FD3673F6432E}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/09/measures-of-consumer-sentimentMeasures of household financial well-being don’t always align with consumer sentiment. You can feel relatively secure about your finances while still being pessimistic about the overall...Thu, 03 Sep 2026 08:00:00 -0500{C52646C3-CE27-4B5C-8150-C4752C7313CB}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/08/is-this-a-good-time-to-rentThe most recent measure of the cost of owning a home (vs. renting a home) remains near historical peaks, suggesting renting today is a relatively better financial choice for housing. To...Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:00:00 -0500{72A46A50-AE64-4C82-B741-10271355BCF3}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/08/does-generative-ai-save-time-at-workMore workers are using generative AI tools, using them more often, and saving more time because of them, according to new survey data in FRED. The survey Economists Alexander Bick, Adam...Thu, 27 Aug 2026 08:00:00 -0500{23C82417-929A-4A97-A20F-B0A1ECC052F6}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/08/state-and-metro-employment-second-quarter-2026National employment growth in the second quarter of 2026 accelerated slightly to 0.3% compared with one year ago. However, this aggregate figure conceals wide variation in job growth across U.S...Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:00:00 -0500{2A7E9FA3-7657-4655-8116-3D6A55B0E4D9}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/08/is-ai-reducing-employment-for-software-codersEmployment of software coders has decelerated sharply since 2022. Recent research suggests this job-specific shock isn’t caused by a slowing industry but likely from the emergence of AI...Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:00:00 -0500{F2B28FD3-E46F-41D0-9DE5-0F9D9489E1E3}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/08/state-minimum-wages-and-cost-of-livingThe federal minimum wage is the lowest hourly rate employers are required to pay workers. It’s been $7.25 per hour for a while now. State minimum wages are a different story: Many are...Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:00:00 -0500{CCA11DE5-8F2F-46D7-9DC4-AE4E63615464}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/08/what-is-the-texas-ratioThe name In the 1980s, Texas had a banking crisis whose causes included shocks in oil prices and real estate investments. In response, Gerard Cassidy of the Royal Bank of Canada developed the Texas...Thu, 13 Aug 2026 08:00:00 -0500{400006E0-DE20-4787-B5F4-958F586A8071}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/08/can-small-business-owners-access-the-credit-they-needSmall businesses with lower credit risk tend to receive all the financing they seek more often than businesses with higher credit risk, which may be newer, smaller, and more in need of...Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:00:00 -0500{B89C6A8E-2549-44C9-90F8-BCB2274291F2}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/08/what-securities-do-fdic-insured-banks-holdThe quarterly banking profile of FDIC-insured institutions provides an overview of their aggregate financial condition, including data on bank earnings, loan and deposit activity, and asset quality...Thu, 06 Aug 2026 08:00:00 -0500{1825E508-CD0C-4207-8BFF-80CCC30B77F0}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/08/how-does-seasonal-weather-affect-construction-employmentThe FRED Blog has discussed why employment in retail and postal services peak around the Christmas holidays. Today we tap into a 2018 research piece from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago to...Mon, 03 Aug 2026 08:00:00 -0500{CA27DD58-D734-4E28-A086-6AEDD038128F}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/07/the-oldest-us-data-series-in-fredFRED has not only current data series but also historic data series, some of which are very old. As we’ve mentioned on this blog, the oldest series in FRED is population data for the United Kingdom...Thu, 30 Jul 2026 08:00:00 -0500{FFF7D27F-12D3-4D25-A432-49D67A1B375C}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/07/productivity-growth-as-seen-in-1996The recent AI boom has renewed debate about how official statistics capture changes in productivity growth and how any lags or limitations might impact monetary policy. For example, in the 1990s...Mon, 27 Jul 2026 08:00:00 -0500{11939DE6-D218-49FC-88C3-3220DF761BC2}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/07/the-link-between-crude-oil-prices-and-airfaresCrude oil is used to produce jet fuel. Changes in crude oil prices, like the ones since March 2026, can affect jet fuel prices, which may or may not affect airfares. Crude oil, jet fuel...Thu, 23 Jul 2026 08:00:00 -0500{545BC8B2-0F63-4DBB-BEDF-ABCDD7E2185D}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/07/unemployment-and-marriage-statusThe unemployment rate includes only those who are actively seeking a job, and seeking a job involves different incentives for married couples versus single heads of household...Mon, 20 Jul 2026 08:00:00 -0500{EA15E79C-6723-42FE-983F-F01A1B1E7A50}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/07/us-manufacturing-employment-is-down-but-each-state-has-its-own-storyFrom last May to this May, manufacturing employment decreased by 0.4%. This number may seem small, but it’s a nationwide figure that can hide considerable variation across US states. So, in the FRED...Thu, 16 Jul 2026 08:00:00 -0500{A6D95C15-2515-4E29-B3EB-36D3951D1D9A}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/07/real-gdp-growth-by-state-first-quarter-2026On June 25, 2026, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released real GDP data for all US states for the first quarter of 2026. The FRED map above shows the annualized growth rates from the previous...Mon, 13 Jul 2026 08:00:00 -0500{4CA6E65F-BE7E-46E5-BABB-9DB3DC160CCC}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/07/primary-deficits-a-short-historyPrimary vs total deficit The US federal government maintains a deficit. That is, it borrows during periods when it collects less in taxes than it spends. There are two main measures of deficits. Our...Thu, 09 Jul 2026 08:00:00 -0500{F6610180-CEFE-4852-8696-BD7804529361}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/07/what-us-assets-are-held-overseasThe FRED Blog recently discussed who holds Treasury securities in the US and abroad. Today, we answer a related question: How do Treasury securities fit into the overall portfolio of US financial...Mon, 06 Jul 2026 08:00:00 -0500{C696DE72-16C7-48BC-8613-FD8CD0D2C9E3}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/07/durable-goods-inflation-and-effective-tariffsWhen tariffs were relatively stable, prices for durable goods such as appliances, electronics, and furniture were declining by as much as 3% year-over-year. But in 2025, the effective...Thu, 02 Jul 2026 08:00:00 -0500{7074B96B-997F-40F2-BE18-529725259729}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/06/ai-investment-and-semiconductor-pricesAlthough data center construction and semiconductor purchases are both related to the AI boom, changes in their prices may be occurring at different stages of the investment process...Mon, 29 Jun 2026 08:00:00 -0500{CF3AEBB0-0D88-4679-A503-99BEF126CFA4}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/06/are-americans-optimistic-about-their-financesExpectations about personal finance conditions are at the heart of consumer confidence‚ and that confidence impacts spending, saving, and overall economic activity. The Bankrate Consumer...Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:00:00 -0500{AB2CAE9F-7848-42E9-949E-E6F6886476A0}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/06/fomc-summary-of-economic-projections-june-2026Every quarter, FOMC meeting participants submit their projections of the most likely outcomes for key economic indicators. The committee releases the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) containing...Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:00:00 -0500{9620AAB2-CEED-4DEE-9E2D-1E438DEB3A04}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/06/hows-the-economic-well-being-of-u-s-householdsSince 2013, the Federal Reserve Board has conducted the SHED—the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking. It measures the economic well-being of U.S. households and identifies potential...Thu, 18 Jun 2026 08:00:00 -0500{EC33309E-9D9F-40A4-B4C8-9F68EC515EC2}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/06/who-holds-us-treasury-securities-overseasThe majority of Treasury securities are held by the American public and institutions, including the Federal Reserve. FRED recently added data from the Treasury International Capital (TIC) system. As...Mon, 15 Jun 2026 08:00:00 -0500{63A2EA8F-8701-41C8-ABC6-F8884B35134C}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/06/what-can-alfred-do-for-youMost economic time series reflect what we know today. That is, they provide the most current, most accurate versions of the data. But what if we want to look back at what we thought was...Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:00 -0500{CC4F167C-5978-4BF0-96E8-3B1629E89D94}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/06/understanding-the-various-us-debt-to-gdp-ratiosHeadlines earlier this year reported that federal US debt exceeded the size of the US economy. Another way to put that: The US debt-to-GDP ratio is over 100%. Opinions and economic analysis vary...Mon, 08 Jun 2026 08:00:00 -0500{DB7C1306-CDC5-4049-8A17-253107B716D0}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/06/why-exclude-food-and-energy-from-inflation-measuresThe Federal Reserve has a dual mandate from Congress: stable prices and full employment. For the first objective, what prices should the Fed keep stable? There are many to choose from. Although...Thu, 04 Jun 2026 08:00:00 -0500{38AC7CE4-654C-4E0F-9EC1-BA6AB61C51FE}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/06/three-different-measures-of-labor-costsLabor is used in production, and measuring the costs of that labor is important for business decisionmaking. There are several ways to measure these costs, and it’s important to know...Mon, 01 Jun 2026 08:00:00 -0500{87864B26-2D85-456D-A59A-595D5C62A28F}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/05/state-and-metro-employment-first-quarter-2026U.S. employment growth in the first quarter of 2026 accelerated slightly to 0.2% relative to one year ago. However, the national average masks significant variation in job growth across the 50...Thu, 28 May 2026 08:00:00 -0500{190D07A8-75A2-4A37-8222-F65020272390}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/05/how-are-benchmark-borrowing-costs-measuredThe market value of US Treasury securities is considered a benchmark for setting other borrowing costs, such as mortgages. It’s considered a benchmark because the US government has not...Thu, 21 May 2026 08:00:00 -0500{156B9447-AC65-4442-BDAC-AC4D898CCFAB}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/05/rising-capital-expenditures-and-declining-cash-holdings-during-the-ai-boomFirms have intensified their research and development during the AI boom. They’ve reduced their cash holdings, too, likely to pay for R&D. In this post, we use FRED data to explore these...Mon, 18 May 2026 08:00:00 -0500{014D5663-2EAB-4777-ABD9-A4656BD42499}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/05/bankrate-and-freddie-mac-mortgage-rate-dataData providers may use the same labels for their data even if their methods of collecting the data differ. FRED can help you compare and understand these differences. Our FRED graph above displays...Thu, 14 May 2026 08:00:00 -0500{366A30F9-3734-44AE-B289-B457AF2F3F8E}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/05/the-peculiar-recent-behavior-of-unemploymentOur FRED graph above shows that unemployment is almost always doing one of two things: (1) declining slowly during expansions or (2) rising rapidly during recessions. Friedman (1964, 1993) compared...Mon, 11 May 2026 08:00:00 -0500{4F8B4379-899F-45C6-BC11-B6AD7ED469A8}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/05/velocity-of-money-the-invisible-pulse-of-the-economyThe velocity of money is how fast money travels from one entity to another to purchase goods and services in a given period. Since 2008, velocity in India has been closing the gap with...Thu, 07 May 2026 08:00:00 -0500{CAB818C1-815D-4D9F-B9A2-516D464E18DF}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/05/economic-policy-uncertainty-and-aggregate-economic-activity-in-indiaHow does economic uncertainty affect the economy? It can shape the decisions of households and firms. When the policy environment becomes less predictable, households and firms may adjust their spending and investment. This post looks at India's situation.Mon, 04 May 2026 08:00:00 -0500{F7E44CBA-E7E0-4929-97A7-C72DBFDAB095}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/04/how-markets-have-responded-to-military-action-against-iranAnalyze market responses to 2026 military action against Iran, tracking how Brent and WTI crude oil prices diverged as Persian Gulf shipping disruptions impacted European markets more than U.S. markets.Thu, 30 Apr 2026 08:00:00 -0500{8CB14DCE-A82A-4C7B-BBC5-FE265E8129D0}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/04/whats-happening-with-interest-rates-on-bank-accountsLearn why 1-year CD rates have been higher than 5-year CD rates since late 2022, plus how interest rates differ across checking, savings, and certificate of deposit accounts.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 08:00:00 -0500{654E77E7-0F0A-49AD-BD07-87EEE49CA04D}https://fred.stlouisfed.org/blog/2026/04/from-net-oil-importer-to-net-oil-exporterSee how technological advances and rising exports of refined petroleum transformed the US from a net oil importer to a net exporter around 2020, and what this means when global oil prices rise.Thu, 23 Apr 2026 08:00:00 -0500