Title: Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions: 12 month Outlook for the US Economy in Federal Reserve District 7: Chicago Series ID: CFSBCOUTLOOK Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Release: Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions Seasonal Adjustment: Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly Units: Index Date Range: 2013-01-01 to 2021-03-01 Last Updated: 2021-04-12 9:04 AM CDT Notes: What is the Survey of Business Conditions? Business contacts in the Seventh Federal Reserve District are asked to rate how various business indicators changed from a month ago along a seven-point scale ranging from "large increase" to "large decrease." A series of diffusion indexes summarizing the distribution of responses is then calculated. How are the indexes constructed? Respondents' answers on the seven-point scale are assigned a numeric value ranging from +3 to –3. Each diffusion index is calculated as the difference between the number of respondents with answers above their respective average responses and the number of respondents with answers below their respective average responses, divided by the total number of respondents. The index is then multiplied by 100 so that it ranges from +100 to −100 and will be +100 if every respondent provides an above-average answer and –100 if every respondent provides a below average answer. Respondents with no prior history of responses are excluded from the calculation. What do the numbers mean? Respondents' respective average answers to a question can be interpreted as representing their historical trends, or long-run averages. Thus, zero index values indicate that, on balance, activity, hiring, capital spending, and cost pressures are growing at their trend rates or that outlooks are neutral. Positive index values indicate above-average growth (or optimistic outlooks) on balance, and negative values indicate below-average growth (or pessimistic outlooks) on balance. Beginning with the May 12, 2020, release, the CFSBC moved to a monthly release schedule. This release, with data for April 2020, now contains estimated monthly historical values for the CFSBC indexes, as will all future releases. For additional information on how the survey and indexes changed, see the CFSBC FAQs available here (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfsbc/index). DATE VALUE 2013-01-01 2.222222328186035000 2013-02-01 18.890014648437500000 2013-03-01 31.958314895629883000 2013-04-01 23.881893157958984000 2013-05-01 22.057580947875977000 2013-06-01 17.551496505737305000 2013-07-01 -0.332405537366867070 2013-08-01 5.129009723663330000 2013-09-01 12.768362045288086000 2013-10-01 1.418272018432617200 2013-11-01 15.310084342956543000 2013-12-01 28.889959335327150000 2014-01-01 22.241935729980470000 2014-02-01 24.079214096069336000 2014-03-01 30.393556594848633000 2014-04-01 42.033504486083984000 2014-05-01 30.310108184814453000 2014-06-01 19.825834274291992000 2014-07-01 33.681221008300780000 2014-08-01 37.937534332275390000 2014-09-01 39.069461822509766000 2014-10-01 41.909362792968750000 2014-11-01 55.416118621826170000 2014-12-01 58.796619415283200000 2015-01-01 38.641960144042970000 2015-02-01 33.109874725341800000 2015-03-01 29.528371810913086000 2015-04-01 20.706617355346680000 2015-05-01 36.405719757080080000 2015-06-01 50.314796447753906000 2015-07-01 43.680824279785156000 2015-08-01 33.112037658691406000 2015-09-01 22.640230178833008000 2015-10-01 14.634063720703125000 2015-11-01 26.495384216308594000 2015-12-01 29.030828475952150000 2016-01-01 8.979963302612305000 2016-02-01 18.341230392456055000 2016-03-01 21.887151718139650000 2016-04-01 7.785526752471924000 2016-05-01 -1.831399798393249500 2016-06-01 0.032356005162000656 2016-07-01 16.254142761230470000 2016-08-01 22.008201599121094000 2016-09-01 18.892772674560547000 2016-10-01 12.828838348388672000 2016-11-01 28.710260391235350000 2016-12-01 43.907829284667970000 2017-01-01 45.035251617431640000 2017-02-01 46.897975921630860000 2017-03-01 45.817256927490234000 2017-04-01 33.004131317138670000 2017-05-01 39.141666412353516000 2017-06-01 40.790374755859375000 2017-07-01 32.368679046630860000 2017-08-01 35.204509735107420000 2017-09-01 44.915420532226560000 2017-10-01 53.166118621826170000 2017-11-01 66.639434814453120000 2017-12-01 73.368240356445310000 2018-01-01 60.375083923339844000 2018-02-01 44.202980041503906000 2018-03-01 33.768848419189450000 2018-04-01 40.618190765380860000 2018-05-01 25.689811706542970000 2018-06-01 15.785063743591309000 2018-07-01 31.096076965332030000 2018-08-01 33.824405670166016000 2018-09-01 19.526668548583984000 2018-10-01 21.164562225341797000 2018-11-01 5.650215148925781000 2018-12-01 -8.498037338256836000 2019-01-01 -1.912058353424072300 2019-02-01 11.224490165710450000 2019-03-01 17.594552993774414000 2019-04-01 2.737729072570801000 2019-05-01 8.348281860351562000 2019-06-01 15.572341918945312000 2019-07-01 1.507926344871521000 2019-08-01 -5.248642921447754000 2019-09-01 -4.343385696411133000 2019-10-01 4.577676296234131000 2019-11-01 27.385356903076172000 2019-12-01 40.134605407714844000 2020-01-01 32.167541503906250000 2020-02-01 -25.332462310791016000 2020-03-01 -55.088924407958984000 2020-04-01 -6.953642368316650000 2020-05-01 24.590164184570312000 2020-06-01 35.353534698486330000 2020-07-01 44.147159576416016000 2020-08-01 38.907852172851560000 2020-09-01 26.132404327392578000 2020-10-01 17.142858505249023000 2020-11-01 34.375000000000000000 2020-12-01 55.932201385498050000 2021-01-01 44.545455932617190000 2021-02-01 63.103450775146484000 2021-03-01 60.215053558349610000