Title: Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities Series ID: RECPROUSM156N Source: Piger, Jeremy Max, Chauvet, Marcelle Release: U.S. Recession Probabilities Seasonal Adjustment: Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly Units: Percent Date Range: 1967-06-01 to 2017-05-01 Last Updated: 2017-08-07 11:51 AM CDT Notes: Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. (http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ier.pdf) For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see: Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, “A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49. (http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/research/published-papers/chauvet-and-piger_2008_jour.pdf) For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3 at http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/us_recession_probs.htm. DATE VALUE 1967-06-01 0.94 1967-07-01 0.52 1967-08-01 0.06 1967-09-01 0.46 1967-10-01 0.02 1967-11-01 0.00 1967-12-01 0.02 1968-01-01 2.14 1968-02-01 0.12 1968-03-01 0.02 1968-04-01 0.04 1968-05-01 0.04 1968-06-01 0.04 1968-07-01 0.04 1968-08-01 0.06 1968-09-01 0.06 1968-10-01 0.00 1968-11-01 0.00 1968-12-01 0.04 1969-01-01 0.06 1969-02-01 0.02 1969-03-01 0.04 1969-04-01 0.16 1969-05-01 0.04 1969-06-01 0.00 1969-07-01 0.24 1969-08-01 0.50 1969-09-01 3.36 1969-10-01 6.72 1969-11-01 35.22 1969-12-01 39.04 1970-01-01 48.86 1970-02-01 37.14 1970-03-01 36.62 1970-04-01 38.96 1970-05-01 37.96 1970-06-01 35.68 1970-07-01 35.76 1970-08-01 50.22 1970-09-01 70.14 1970-10-01 83.72 1970-11-01 36.58 1970-12-01 0.02 1971-01-01 0.26 1971-02-01 1.24 1971-03-01 0.56 1971-04-01 0.10 1971-05-01 0.02 1971-06-01 0.16 1971-07-01 0.48 1971-08-01 0.36 1971-09-01 0.00 1971-10-01 0.04 1971-11-01 0.02 1971-12-01 0.00 1972-01-01 0.00 1972-02-01 0.04 1972-03-01 0.04 1972-04-01 0.02 1972-05-01 0.02 1972-06-01 0.04 1972-07-01 0.20 1972-08-01 0.00 1972-09-01 0.00 1972-10-01 0.00 1972-11-01 0.00 1972-12-01 0.00 1973-01-01 0.02 1973-02-01 0.00 1973-03-01 0.42 1973-04-01 0.48 1973-05-01 0.06 1973-06-01 0.10 1973-07-01 0.10 1973-08-01 0.20 1973-09-01 0.00 1973-10-01 0.02 1973-11-01 0.58 1973-12-01 17.26 1974-01-01 20.40 1974-02-01 17.30 1974-03-01 15.88 1974-04-01 16.00 1974-05-01 15.62 1974-06-01 26.78 1974-07-01 39.80 1974-08-01 73.08 1974-09-01 77.14 1974-10-01 90.66 1974-11-01 100.00 1974-12-01 100.00 1975-01-01 99.56 1975-02-01 99.44 1975-03-01 92.52 1975-04-01 18.22 1975-05-01 3.24 1975-06-01 0.72 1975-07-01 0.12 1975-08-01 0.04 1975-09-01 0.04 1975-10-01 0.12 1975-11-01 0.06 1975-12-01 0.00 1976-01-01 0.00 1976-02-01 0.00 1976-03-01 0.18 1976-04-01 0.02 1976-05-01 0.02 1976-06-01 0.04 1976-07-01 0.04 1976-08-01 0.00 1976-09-01 0.04 1976-10-01 0.20 1976-11-01 0.00 1976-12-01 0.00 1977-01-01 0.36 1977-02-01 0.02 1977-03-01 0.00 1977-04-01 0.00 1977-05-01 0.02 1977-06-01 0.02 1977-07-01 0.04 1977-08-01 0.04 1977-09-01 0.04 1977-10-01 0.04 1977-11-01 0.14 1977-12-01 0.94 1978-01-01 10.56 1978-02-01 0.10 1978-03-01 0.00 1978-04-01 0.00 1978-05-01 0.16 1978-06-01 0.08 1978-07-01 0.22 1978-08-01 0.10 1978-09-01 0.14 1978-10-01 0.08 1978-11-01 0.06 1978-12-01 0.18 1979-01-01 1.84 1979-02-01 0.74 1979-03-01 0.86 1979-04-01 15.28 1979-05-01 1.48 1979-06-01 1.60 1979-07-01 2.46 1979-08-01 2.86 1979-09-01 2.12 1979-10-01 1.98 1979-11-01 2.94 1979-12-01 4.20 1980-01-01 6.54 1980-02-01 33.04 1980-03-01 83.42 1980-04-01 99.76 1980-05-01 99.72 1980-06-01 88.14 1980-07-01 30.02 1980-08-01 0.48 1980-09-01 0.06 1980-10-01 0.02 1980-11-01 0.08 1980-12-01 0.94 1981-01-01 2.64 1981-02-01 2.74 1981-03-01 1.62 1981-04-01 1.78 1981-05-01 1.52 1981-06-01 1.68 1981-07-01 3.66 1981-08-01 35.38 1981-09-01 75.46 1981-10-01 89.28 1981-11-01 93.66 1981-12-01 93.90 1982-01-01 91.00 1982-02-01 12.94 1982-03-01 62.22 1982-04-01 71.94 1982-05-01 73.66 1982-06-01 75.66 1982-07-01 76.30 1982-08-01 75.06 1982-09-01 71.40 1982-10-01 68.38 1982-11-01 42.66 1982-12-01 20.80 1983-01-01 0.68 1983-02-01 2.12 1983-03-01 0.10 1983-04-01 0.04 1983-05-01 0.00 1983-06-01 0.00 1983-07-01 0.00 1983-08-01 0.08 1983-09-01 0.00 1983-10-01 0.02 1983-11-01 0.02 1983-12-01 0.00 1984-01-01 0.00 1984-02-01 0.00 1984-03-01 0.00 1984-04-01 0.00 1984-05-01 0.00 1984-06-01 0.00 1984-07-01 0.00 1984-08-01 0.08 1984-09-01 0.06 1984-10-01 0.06 1984-11-01 0.04 1984-12-01 0.10 1985-01-01 0.14 1985-02-01 0.02 1985-03-01 0.04 1985-04-01 0.20 1985-05-01 0.08 1985-06-01 0.16 1985-07-01 0.28 1985-08-01 0.00 1985-09-01 0.00 1985-10-01 0.20 1985-11-01 0.00 1985-12-01 0.00 1986-01-01 0.14 1986-02-01 0.82 1986-03-01 0.68 1986-04-01 0.14 1986-05-01 0.28 1986-06-01 0.22 1986-07-01 0.02 1986-08-01 0.08 1986-09-01 0.02 1986-10-01 0.06 1986-11-01 0.08 1986-12-01 0.04 1987-01-01 0.64 1987-02-01 0.04 1987-03-01 0.02 1987-04-01 0.00 1987-05-01 0.06 1987-06-01 0.08 1987-07-01 0.02 1987-08-01 0.02 1987-09-01 0.00 1987-10-01 0.00 1987-11-01 0.04 1987-12-01 0.00 1988-01-01 0.10 1988-02-01 0.00 1988-03-01 0.00 1988-04-01 0.02 1988-05-01 0.04 1988-06-01 0.02 1988-07-01 0.06 1988-08-01 0.08 1988-09-01 0.10 1988-10-01 0.04 1988-11-01 0.04 1988-12-01 0.02 1989-01-01 0.12 1989-02-01 0.66 1989-03-01 0.40 1989-04-01 0.78 1989-05-01 1.52 1989-06-01 1.02 1989-07-01 1.28 1989-08-01 0.12 1989-09-01 0.20 1989-10-01 0.18 1989-11-01 0.08 1989-12-01 0.10 1990-01-01 0.24 1990-02-01 0.04 1990-03-01 0.18 1990-04-01 1.22 1990-05-01 1.28 1990-06-01 2.18 1990-07-01 6.46 1990-08-01 11.72 1990-09-01 26.42 1990-10-01 50.36 1990-11-01 55.16 1990-12-01 53.38 1991-01-01 50.74 1991-02-01 43.86 1991-03-01 27.66 1991-04-01 4.16 1991-05-01 0.58 1991-06-01 0.30 1991-07-01 0.34 1991-08-01 0.30 1991-09-01 0.24 1991-10-01 0.42 1991-11-01 0.70 1991-12-01 0.72 1992-01-01 0.20 1992-02-01 0.08 1992-03-01 0.08 1992-04-01 0.06 1992-05-01 0.16 1992-06-01 0.14 1992-07-01 0.08 1992-08-01 0.36 1992-09-01 0.10 1992-10-01 0.02 1992-11-01 0.08 1992-12-01 0.04 1993-01-01 0.02 1993-02-01 0.12 1993-03-01 0.48 1993-04-01 0.10 1993-05-01 0.22 1993-06-01 0.04 1993-07-01 0.04 1993-08-01 0.16 1993-09-01 0.02 1993-10-01 0.02 1993-11-01 0.00 1993-12-01 0.02 1994-01-01 0.04 1994-02-01 0.08 1994-03-01 0.00 1994-04-01 0.08 1994-05-01 0.02 1994-06-01 0.00 1994-07-01 0.04 1994-08-01 0.02 1994-09-01 0.00 1994-10-01 0.00 1994-11-01 0.00 1994-12-01 0.00 1995-01-01 0.06 1995-02-01 0.28 1995-03-01 0.18 1995-04-01 0.28 1995-05-01 0.10 1995-06-01 0.06 1995-07-01 0.20 1995-08-01 0.04 1995-09-01 0.04 1995-10-01 0.16 1995-11-01 0.06 1995-12-01 0.12 1996-01-01 0.46 1996-02-01 0.00 1996-03-01 0.08 1996-04-01 0.06 1996-05-01 0.00 1996-06-01 0.04 1996-07-01 0.10 1996-08-01 0.06 1996-09-01 0.04 1996-10-01 0.02 1996-11-01 0.02 1996-12-01 0.04 1997-01-01 0.04 1997-02-01 0.00 1997-03-01 0.00 1997-04-01 0.06 1997-05-01 0.02 1997-06-01 0.00 1997-07-01 0.00 1997-08-01 0.02 1997-09-01 0.00 1997-10-01 0.02 1997-11-01 0.00 1997-12-01 0.04 1998-01-01 0.02 1998-02-01 0.00 1998-03-01 0.00 1998-04-01 0.02 1998-05-01 0.02 1998-06-01 0.94 1998-07-01 0.62 1998-08-01 0.02 1998-09-01 0.10 1998-10-01 0.02 1998-11-01 0.06 1998-12-01 0.00 1999-01-01 0.00 1999-02-01 0.00 1999-03-01 0.06 1999-04-01 0.00 1999-05-01 0.02 1999-06-01 0.10 1999-07-01 0.06 1999-08-01 0.04 1999-09-01 0.08 1999-10-01 0.00 1999-11-01 0.00 1999-12-01 0.02 2000-01-01 0.16 2000-02-01 0.16 2000-03-01 0.06 2000-04-01 0.06 2000-05-01 0.28 2000-06-01 0.56 2000-07-01 0.66 2000-08-01 1.04 2000-09-01 1.24 2000-10-01 3.68 2000-11-01 5.42 2000-12-01 8.68 2001-01-01 16.00 2001-02-01 18.56 2001-03-01 21.98 2001-04-01 25.32 2001-05-01 25.50 2001-06-01 25.44 2001-07-01 23.98 2001-08-01 21.80 2001-09-01 20.88 2001-10-01 15.54 2001-11-01 11.90 2001-12-01 5.00 2002-01-01 2.28 2002-02-01 1.24 2002-03-01 0.54 2002-04-01 0.32 2002-05-01 0.28 2002-06-01 0.30 2002-07-01 0.80 2002-08-01 0.58 2002-09-01 0.54 2002-10-01 0.46 2002-11-01 0.44 2002-12-01 0.76 2003-01-01 0.34 2003-02-01 0.64 2003-03-01 0.58 2003-04-01 0.52 2003-05-01 0.18 2003-06-01 0.08 2003-07-01 0.02 2003-08-01 0.12 2003-09-01 0.02 2003-10-01 0.00 2003-11-01 0.02 2003-12-01 0.14 2004-01-01 0.14 2004-02-01 0.06 2004-03-01 0.04 2004-04-01 0.06 2004-05-01 0.12 2004-06-01 0.86 2004-07-01 0.14 2004-08-01 0.06 2004-09-01 0.06 2004-10-01 0.06 2004-11-01 0.04 2004-12-01 0.00 2005-01-01 0.06 2005-02-01 0.06 2005-03-01 0.26 2005-04-01 0.08 2005-05-01 0.08 2005-06-01 0.08 2005-07-01 0.44 2005-08-01 1.80 2005-09-01 10.68 2005-10-01 0.28 2005-11-01 0.00 2005-12-01 0.04 2006-01-01 0.04 2006-02-01 0.04 2006-03-01 0.12 2006-04-01 0.20 2006-05-01 0.22 2006-06-01 0.14 2006-07-01 0.16 2006-08-01 0.14 2006-09-01 0.24 2006-10-01 0.16 2006-11-01 0.06 2006-12-01 0.02 2007-01-01 0.26 2007-02-01 0.06 2007-03-01 0.12 2007-04-01 0.10 2007-05-01 0.22 2007-06-01 0.38 2007-07-01 0.38 2007-08-01 0.42 2007-09-01 0.64 2007-10-01 1.84 2007-11-01 2.90 2007-12-01 8.52 2008-01-01 19.76 2008-02-01 39.86 2008-03-01 53.66 2008-04-01 64.70 2008-05-01 71.88 2008-06-01 78.32 2008-07-01 92.38 2008-08-01 99.38 2008-09-01 99.96 2008-10-01 89.56 2008-11-01 99.84 2008-12-01 100.00 2009-01-01 99.98 2009-02-01 99.78 2009-03-01 99.90 2009-04-01 98.28 2009-05-01 91.02 2009-06-01 61.84 2009-07-01 3.12 2009-08-01 0.74 2009-09-01 0.42 2009-10-01 0.28 2009-11-01 0.08 2009-12-01 0.10 2010-01-01 0.00 2010-02-01 0.06 2010-03-01 0.02 2010-04-01 0.02 2010-05-01 0.00 2010-06-01 0.26 2010-07-01 0.14 2010-08-01 0.04 2010-09-01 0.04 2010-10-01 0.04 2010-11-01 0.06 2010-12-01 0.06 2011-01-01 0.10 2011-02-01 0.38 2011-03-01 0.10 2011-04-01 0.38 2011-05-01 0.22 2011-06-01 0.02 2011-07-01 0.06 2011-08-01 0.02 2011-09-01 0.12 2011-10-01 0.00 2011-11-01 0.08 2011-12-01 0.02 2012-01-01 0.00 2012-02-01 0.04 2012-03-01 0.24 2012-04-01 0.08 2012-05-01 0.04 2012-06-01 0.10 2012-07-01 0.08 2012-08-01 0.32 2012-09-01 0.06 2012-10-01 0.04 2012-11-01 0.02 2012-12-01 0.04 2013-01-01 2.58 2013-02-01 0.36 2013-03-01 0.30 2013-04-01 0.22 2013-05-01 0.08 2013-06-01 0.14 2013-07-01 0.46 2013-08-01 0.06 2013-09-01 0.02 2013-10-01 0.02 2013-11-01 0.06 2013-12-01 0.20 2014-01-01 0.30 2014-02-01 0.06 2014-03-01 0.00 2014-04-01 0.04 2014-05-01 0.10 2014-06-01 0.10 2014-07-01 0.14 2014-08-01 0.10 2014-09-01 0.08 2014-10-01 0.04 2014-11-01 0.00 2014-12-01 0.28 2015-01-01 0.76 2015-02-01 0.70 2015-03-01 0.64 2015-04-01 0.42 2015-05-01 0.48 2015-06-01 0.50 2015-07-01 0.28 2015-08-01 0.32 2015-09-01 0.38 2015-10-01 0.52 2015-11-01 0.58 2015-12-01 0.56 2016-01-01 0.28 2016-02-01 0.30 2016-03-01 0.24 2016-04-01 0.16 2016-05-01 0.30 2016-06-01 0.16 2016-07-01 0.18 2016-08-01 0.12 2016-09-01 0.20 2016-10-01 0.20 2016-11-01 0.14 2016-12-01 0.04 2017-01-01 0.28 2017-02-01 0.16 2017-03-01 0.28 2017-04-01 0.18 2017-05-01 0.44