Title: Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities Series ID: RECPROUSM156N Source: Piger, Jeremy Max, Chauvet, Marcelle Release: U.S. Recession Probabilities Seasonal Adjustment: Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly Units: Percent Date Range: 1967-06-01 to 2018-02-01 Last Updated: 2018-05-01 12:01 PM CDT Notes: Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. (http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ier.pdf) For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see: Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, “A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49. (http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/research/published-papers/chauvet-and-piger_2008_jour.pdf) For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3 at http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/us_recession_probs.htm. DATE VALUE 1967-06-01 1.02 1967-07-01 0.52 1967-08-01 0.02 1967-09-01 0.42 1967-10-01 0.06 1967-11-01 0.00 1967-12-01 0.00 1968-01-01 2.60 1968-02-01 0.14 1968-03-01 0.06 1968-04-01 0.02 1968-05-01 0.00 1968-06-01 0.00 1968-07-01 0.00 1968-08-01 0.08 1968-09-01 0.02 1968-10-01 0.00 1968-11-01 0.00 1968-12-01 0.04 1969-01-01 0.04 1969-02-01 0.04 1969-03-01 0.00 1969-04-01 0.22 1969-05-01 0.06 1969-06-01 0.02 1969-07-01 0.10 1969-08-01 0.36 1969-09-01 3.18 1969-10-01 6.00 1969-11-01 33.58 1969-12-01 37.64 1970-01-01 49.82 1970-02-01 36.50 1970-03-01 36.76 1970-04-01 38.84 1970-05-01 37.48 1970-06-01 36.00 1970-07-01 35.90 1970-08-01 50.64 1970-09-01 70.28 1970-10-01 83.42 1970-11-01 36.94 1970-12-01 0.02 1971-01-01 0.12 1971-02-01 0.82 1971-03-01 0.36 1971-04-01 0.08 1971-05-01 0.08 1971-06-01 0.22 1971-07-01 0.64 1971-08-01 0.32 1971-09-01 0.02 1971-10-01 0.02 1971-11-01 0.00 1971-12-01 0.00 1972-01-01 0.00 1972-02-01 0.04 1972-03-01 0.00 1972-04-01 0.02 1972-05-01 0.06 1972-06-01 0.02 1972-07-01 0.26 1972-08-01 0.00 1972-09-01 0.00 1972-10-01 0.00 1972-11-01 0.00 1972-12-01 0.00 1973-01-01 0.00 1973-02-01 0.00 1973-03-01 0.26 1973-04-01 0.42 1973-05-01 0.10 1973-06-01 0.08 1973-07-01 0.06 1973-08-01 0.22 1973-09-01 0.02 1973-10-01 0.02 1973-11-01 0.50 1973-12-01 15.48 1974-01-01 18.56 1974-02-01 16.12 1974-03-01 14.58 1974-04-01 14.60 1974-05-01 14.20 1974-06-01 24.68 1974-07-01 38.34 1974-08-01 71.76 1974-09-01 76.68 1974-10-01 91.60 1974-11-01 100.00 1974-12-01 100.00 1975-01-01 99.76 1975-02-01 99.70 1975-03-01 93.84 1975-04-01 19.06 1975-05-01 3.02 1975-06-01 0.68 1975-07-01 0.12 1975-08-01 0.06 1975-09-01 0.06 1975-10-01 0.08 1975-11-01 0.04 1975-12-01 0.00 1976-01-01 0.00 1976-02-01 0.02 1976-03-01 0.08 1976-04-01 0.02 1976-05-01 0.10 1976-06-01 0.02 1976-07-01 0.02 1976-08-01 0.00 1976-09-01 0.12 1976-10-01 0.20 1976-11-01 0.00 1976-12-01 0.02 1977-01-01 0.26 1977-02-01 0.02 1977-03-01 0.02 1977-04-01 0.00 1977-05-01 0.02 1977-06-01 0.00 1977-07-01 0.12 1977-08-01 0.12 1977-09-01 0.02 1977-10-01 0.04 1977-11-01 0.06 1977-12-01 0.62 1978-01-01 10.12 1978-02-01 0.08 1978-03-01 0.00 1978-04-01 0.00 1978-05-01 0.40 1978-06-01 0.14 1978-07-01 0.20 1978-08-01 0.06 1978-09-01 0.14 1978-10-01 0.00 1978-11-01 0.00 1978-12-01 0.32 1979-01-01 1.80 1979-02-01 0.46 1979-03-01 0.66 1979-04-01 15.96 1979-05-01 0.94 1979-06-01 1.08 1979-07-01 1.66 1979-08-01 2.12 1979-09-01 1.44 1979-10-01 1.36 1979-11-01 1.90 1979-12-01 2.96 1980-01-01 5.56 1980-02-01 33.54 1980-03-01 82.42 1980-04-01 99.70 1980-05-01 99.80 1980-06-01 88.00 1980-07-01 30.96 1980-08-01 0.40 1980-09-01 0.04 1980-10-01 0.02 1980-11-01 0.04 1980-12-01 0.60 1981-01-01 1.82 1981-02-01 1.94 1981-03-01 1.00 1981-04-01 1.02 1981-05-01 0.88 1981-06-01 1.14 1981-07-01 3.18 1981-08-01 36.84 1981-09-01 76.64 1981-10-01 90.38 1981-11-01 94.56 1981-12-01 94.62 1982-01-01 91.74 1982-02-01 13.60 1982-03-01 63.54 1982-04-01 73.88 1982-05-01 75.30 1982-06-01 77.70 1982-07-01 78.16 1982-08-01 77.18 1982-09-01 73.60 1982-10-01 70.60 1982-11-01 42.06 1982-12-01 19.78 1983-01-01 0.46 1983-02-01 1.68 1983-03-01 0.12 1983-04-01 0.02 1983-05-01 0.02 1983-06-01 0.00 1983-07-01 0.00 1983-08-01 0.08 1983-09-01 0.00 1983-10-01 0.00 1983-11-01 0.04 1983-12-01 0.00 1984-01-01 0.02 1984-02-01 0.04 1984-03-01 0.06 1984-04-01 0.02 1984-05-01 0.00 1984-06-01 0.02 1984-07-01 0.12 1984-08-01 0.10 1984-09-01 0.04 1984-10-01 0.04 1984-11-01 0.00 1984-12-01 0.08 1985-01-01 0.12 1985-02-01 0.06 1985-03-01 0.00 1985-04-01 0.10 1985-05-01 0.08 1985-06-01 0.34 1985-07-01 0.38 1985-08-01 0.00 1985-09-01 0.04 1985-10-01 0.24 1985-11-01 0.08 1985-12-01 0.00 1986-01-01 0.10 1986-02-01 0.90 1986-03-01 0.52 1986-04-01 0.04 1986-05-01 0.18 1986-06-01 0.18 1986-07-01 0.02 1986-08-01 0.06 1986-09-01 0.02 1986-10-01 0.08 1986-11-01 0.08 1986-12-01 0.10 1987-01-01 0.62 1987-02-01 0.02 1987-03-01 0.08 1987-04-01 0.00 1987-05-01 0.00 1987-06-01 0.02 1987-07-01 0.00 1987-08-01 0.00 1987-09-01 0.02 1987-10-01 0.02 1987-11-01 0.04 1987-12-01 0.02 1988-01-01 0.16 1988-02-01 0.02 1988-03-01 0.04 1988-04-01 0.08 1988-05-01 0.16 1988-06-01 0.00 1988-07-01 0.02 1988-08-01 0.06 1988-09-01 0.04 1988-10-01 0.02 1988-11-01 0.00 1988-12-01 0.02 1989-01-01 0.08 1989-02-01 0.52 1989-03-01 0.38 1989-04-01 0.56 1989-05-01 1.26 1989-06-01 0.94 1989-07-01 1.14 1989-08-01 0.20 1989-09-01 0.28 1989-10-01 0.20 1989-11-01 0.06 1989-12-01 0.08 1990-01-01 0.20 1990-02-01 0.04 1990-03-01 0.26 1990-04-01 0.90 1990-05-01 1.10 1990-06-01 1.94 1990-07-01 6.30 1990-08-01 13.54 1990-09-01 30.64 1990-10-01 55.86 1990-11-01 61.02 1990-12-01 58.84 1991-01-01 56.46 1991-02-01 49.46 1991-03-01 32.92 1991-04-01 4.42 1991-05-01 0.42 1991-06-01 0.26 1991-07-01 0.24 1991-08-01 0.32 1991-09-01 0.20 1991-10-01 0.56 1991-11-01 0.60 1991-12-01 0.74 1992-01-01 0.40 1992-02-01 0.14 1992-03-01 0.02 1992-04-01 0.00 1992-05-01 0.06 1992-06-01 0.06 1992-07-01 0.02 1992-08-01 0.40 1992-09-01 0.00 1992-10-01 0.02 1992-11-01 0.04 1992-12-01 0.00 1993-01-01 0.00 1993-02-01 0.12 1993-03-01 0.66 1993-04-01 0.06 1993-05-01 0.12 1993-06-01 0.10 1993-07-01 0.08 1993-08-01 0.10 1993-09-01 0.02 1993-10-01 0.02 1993-11-01 0.02 1993-12-01 0.02 1994-01-01 0.00 1994-02-01 0.00 1994-03-01 0.00 1994-04-01 0.00 1994-05-01 0.00 1994-06-01 0.02 1994-07-01 0.14 1994-08-01 0.02 1994-09-01 0.02 1994-10-01 0.00 1994-11-01 0.02 1994-12-01 0.04 1995-01-01 0.14 1995-02-01 0.18 1995-03-01 0.22 1995-04-01 0.20 1995-05-01 0.06 1995-06-01 0.08 1995-07-01 0.18 1995-08-01 0.04 1995-09-01 0.04 1995-10-01 0.06 1995-11-01 0.04 1995-12-01 0.12 1996-01-01 0.44 1996-02-01 0.02 1996-03-01 0.06 1996-04-01 0.00 1996-05-01 0.00 1996-06-01 0.00 1996-07-01 0.10 1996-08-01 0.00 1996-09-01 0.02 1996-10-01 0.02 1996-11-01 0.00 1996-12-01 0.02 1997-01-01 0.00 1997-02-01 0.00 1997-03-01 0.04 1997-04-01 0.02 1997-05-01 0.00 1997-06-01 0.02 1997-07-01 0.00 1997-08-01 0.00 1997-09-01 0.00 1997-10-01 0.00 1997-11-01 0.00 1997-12-01 0.06 1998-01-01 0.00 1998-02-01 0.02 1998-03-01 0.06 1998-04-01 0.00 1998-05-01 0.02 1998-06-01 0.76 1998-07-01 0.46 1998-08-01 0.00 1998-09-01 0.10 1998-10-01 0.00 1998-11-01 0.02 1998-12-01 0.02 1999-01-01 0.04 1999-02-01 0.02 1999-03-01 0.10 1999-04-01 0.06 1999-05-01 0.02 1999-06-01 0.02 1999-07-01 0.02 1999-08-01 0.04 1999-09-01 0.08 1999-10-01 0.02 1999-11-01 0.00 1999-12-01 0.02 2000-01-01 0.04 2000-02-01 0.06 2000-03-01 0.02 2000-04-01 0.00 2000-05-01 0.38 2000-06-01 0.62 2000-07-01 0.68 2000-08-01 0.96 2000-09-01 1.18 2000-10-01 3.56 2000-11-01 4.86 2000-12-01 8.18 2001-01-01 15.70 2001-02-01 18.80 2001-03-01 22.76 2001-04-01 27.04 2001-05-01 27.02 2001-06-01 27.22 2001-07-01 26.00 2001-08-01 23.26 2001-09-01 22.96 2001-10-01 16.88 2001-11-01 12.78 2001-12-01 5.40 2002-01-01 1.78 2002-02-01 1.22 2002-03-01 0.48 2002-04-01 0.26 2002-05-01 0.30 2002-06-01 0.20 2002-07-01 0.66 2002-08-01 0.30 2002-09-01 0.22 2002-10-01 0.26 2002-11-01 0.22 2002-12-01 0.78 2003-01-01 0.20 2003-02-01 0.42 2003-03-01 0.60 2003-04-01 0.72 2003-05-01 0.12 2003-06-01 0.12 2003-07-01 0.04 2003-08-01 0.22 2003-09-01 0.06 2003-10-01 0.08 2003-11-01 0.00 2003-12-01 0.14 2004-01-01 0.04 2004-02-01 0.06 2004-03-01 0.02 2004-04-01 0.10 2004-05-01 0.04 2004-06-01 0.82 2004-07-01 0.08 2004-08-01 0.02 2004-09-01 0.00 2004-10-01 0.00 2004-11-01 0.00 2004-12-01 0.00 2005-01-01 0.10 2005-02-01 0.02 2005-03-01 0.12 2005-04-01 0.02 2005-05-01 0.02 2005-06-01 0.04 2005-07-01 0.66 2005-08-01 1.94 2005-09-01 11.16 2005-10-01 0.08 2005-11-01 0.02 2005-12-01 0.02 2006-01-01 0.06 2006-02-01 0.04 2006-03-01 0.04 2006-04-01 0.06 2006-05-01 0.12 2006-06-01 0.10 2006-07-01 0.16 2006-08-01 0.10 2006-09-01 0.20 2006-10-01 0.16 2006-11-01 0.06 2006-12-01 0.04 2007-01-01 0.24 2007-02-01 0.04 2007-03-01 0.06 2007-04-01 0.04 2007-05-01 0.10 2007-06-01 0.24 2007-07-01 0.36 2007-08-01 0.24 2007-09-01 0.30 2007-10-01 1.78 2007-11-01 2.52 2007-12-01 7.68 2008-01-01 19.64 2008-02-01 42.42 2008-03-01 57.10 2008-04-01 70.18 2008-05-01 78.24 2008-06-01 84.20 2008-07-01 94.86 2008-08-01 99.72 2008-09-01 100.00 2008-10-01 89.66 2008-11-01 99.82 2008-12-01 100.00 2009-01-01 100.00 2009-02-01 99.90 2009-03-01 99.94 2009-04-01 98.02 2009-05-01 89.46 2009-06-01 57.58 2009-07-01 2.88 2009-08-01 0.62 2009-09-01 0.42 2009-10-01 0.36 2009-11-01 0.12 2009-12-01 0.08 2010-01-01 0.02 2010-02-01 0.06 2010-03-01 0.00 2010-04-01 0.00 2010-05-01 0.02 2010-06-01 0.36 2010-07-01 0.18 2010-08-01 0.10 2010-09-01 0.12 2010-10-01 0.04 2010-11-01 0.02 2010-12-01 0.00 2011-01-01 0.02 2011-02-01 0.22 2011-03-01 0.00 2011-04-01 0.24 2011-05-01 0.14 2011-06-01 0.02 2011-07-01 0.02 2011-08-01 0.00 2011-09-01 0.08 2011-10-01 0.00 2011-11-01 0.08 2011-12-01 0.04 2012-01-01 0.00 2012-02-01 0.04 2012-03-01 0.38 2012-04-01 0.16 2012-05-01 0.12 2012-06-01 0.16 2012-07-01 0.14 2012-08-01 0.22 2012-09-01 0.20 2012-10-01 0.16 2012-11-01 0.08 2012-12-01 0.12 2013-01-01 2.98 2013-02-01 0.30 2013-03-01 0.24 2013-04-01 0.12 2013-05-01 0.10 2013-06-01 0.16 2013-07-01 0.28 2013-08-01 0.02 2013-09-01 0.00 2013-10-01 0.10 2013-11-01 0.14 2013-12-01 0.24 2014-01-01 0.26 2014-02-01 0.04 2014-03-01 0.04 2014-04-01 0.10 2014-05-01 0.10 2014-06-01 0.10 2014-07-01 0.06 2014-08-01 0.04 2014-09-01 0.04 2014-10-01 0.10 2014-11-01 0.06 2014-12-01 0.32 2015-01-01 0.84 2015-02-01 0.84 2015-03-01 0.80 2015-04-01 0.56 2015-05-01 0.66 2015-06-01 0.44 2015-07-01 0.32 2015-08-01 0.46 2015-09-01 0.50 2015-10-01 0.62 2015-11-01 0.68 2015-12-01 0.54 2016-01-01 0.38 2016-02-01 0.72 2016-03-01 0.38 2016-04-01 0.24 2016-05-01 0.24 2016-06-01 0.12 2016-07-01 0.10 2016-08-01 0.18 2016-09-01 0.10 2016-10-01 0.18 2016-11-01 0.14 2016-12-01 0.02 2017-01-01 0.24 2017-02-01 0.12 2017-03-01 0.04 2017-04-01 0.02 2017-05-01 0.08 2017-06-01 0.10 2017-07-01 0.08 2017-08-01 0.20 2017-09-01 0.10 2017-10-01 0.00 2017-11-01 0.00 2017-12-01 0.06 2018-01-01 0.24 2018-02-01 0.10