Title: Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities Series ID: RECPROUSM156N Source: Chauvet, Marcelle, Piger, Jeremy Max Release: U.S. Recession Probabilities Seasonal Adjustment: Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly Units: Percent Date Range: 1967-06-01 to 2021-01-01 Last Updated: 2021-03-01 7:02 AM CST Notes: Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see: Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods (https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f2ed/8fac87c0c82c3d85ca64ee9846658d8810fb.pdf?_ga=2.168797348.404457612.1561570817-1723670870.1561570817)," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49. For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3 (http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/us_recession_probs.htm). DATE VALUE 1967-06-01 0.98 1967-07-01 0.48 1967-08-01 0.06 1967-09-01 0.42 1967-10-01 0.02 1967-11-01 0.00 1967-12-01 0.04 1968-01-01 1.86 1968-02-01 0.20 1968-03-01 0.12 1968-04-01 0.06 1968-05-01 0.00 1968-06-01 0.02 1968-07-01 0.00 1968-08-01 0.08 1968-09-01 0.00 1968-10-01 0.04 1968-11-01 0.00 1968-12-01 0.02 1969-01-01 0.10 1969-02-01 0.02 1969-03-01 0.02 1969-04-01 0.16 1969-05-01 0.08 1969-06-01 0.02 1969-07-01 0.14 1969-08-01 0.48 1969-09-01 4.88 1969-10-01 8.08 1969-11-01 40.48 1969-12-01 45.20 1970-01-01 55.94 1970-02-01 46.56 1970-03-01 47.34 1970-04-01 51.46 1970-05-01 49.04 1970-06-01 46.80 1970-07-01 47.66 1970-08-01 66.72 1970-09-01 81.40 1970-10-01 87.54 1970-11-01 35.88 1970-12-01 0.06 1971-01-01 0.08 1971-02-01 1.46 1971-03-01 0.50 1971-04-01 0.08 1971-05-01 0.02 1971-06-01 0.18 1971-07-01 0.56 1971-08-01 0.32 1971-09-01 0.00 1971-10-01 0.00 1971-11-01 0.00 1971-12-01 0.00 1972-01-01 0.00 1972-02-01 0.04 1972-03-01 0.02 1972-04-01 0.00 1972-05-01 0.04 1972-06-01 0.00 1972-07-01 0.22 1972-08-01 0.00 1972-09-01 0.00 1972-10-01 0.00 1972-11-01 0.00 1972-12-01 0.00 1973-01-01 0.02 1973-02-01 0.00 1973-03-01 0.36 1973-04-01 0.36 1973-05-01 0.18 1973-06-01 0.06 1973-07-01 0.02 1973-08-01 0.12 1973-09-01 0.00 1973-10-01 0.00 1973-11-01 1.04 1973-12-01 39.08 1974-01-01 45.12 1974-02-01 39.72 1974-03-01 36.66 1974-04-01 36.08 1974-05-01 34.30 1974-06-01 47.98 1974-07-01 60.24 1974-08-01 83.92 1974-09-01 88.00 1974-10-01 95.68 1974-11-01 100.00 1974-12-01 100.00 1975-01-01 99.88 1975-02-01 99.82 1975-03-01 93.94 1975-04-01 25.52 1975-05-01 2.96 1975-06-01 0.70 1975-07-01 0.08 1975-08-01 0.00 1975-09-01 0.06 1975-10-01 0.00 1975-11-01 0.02 1975-12-01 0.00 1976-01-01 0.00 1976-02-01 0.02 1976-03-01 0.10 1976-04-01 0.00 1976-05-01 0.06 1976-06-01 0.06 1976-07-01 0.00 1976-08-01 0.00 1976-09-01 0.02 1976-10-01 0.14 1976-11-01 0.00 1976-12-01 0.00 1977-01-01 0.32 1977-02-01 0.02 1977-03-01 0.00 1977-04-01 0.02 1977-05-01 0.02 1977-06-01 0.00 1977-07-01 0.04 1977-08-01 0.06 1977-09-01 0.02 1977-10-01 0.02 1977-11-01 0.06 1977-12-01 0.92 1978-01-01 11.86 1978-02-01 0.04 1978-03-01 0.00 1978-04-01 0.00 1978-05-01 0.28 1978-06-01 0.00 1978-07-01 0.20 1978-08-01 0.02 1978-09-01 0.02 1978-10-01 0.00 1978-11-01 0.00 1978-12-01 0.20 1979-01-01 1.98 1979-02-01 0.86 1979-03-01 1.28 1979-04-01 29.90 1979-05-01 1.56 1979-06-01 1.76 1979-07-01 3.00 1979-08-01 3.48 1979-09-01 2.60 1979-10-01 2.34 1979-11-01 3.26 1979-12-01 5.24 1980-01-01 10.10 1980-02-01 47.64 1980-03-01 89.06 1980-04-01 99.70 1980-05-01 99.80 1980-06-01 88.62 1980-07-01 36.70 1980-08-01 0.40 1980-09-01 0.00 1980-10-01 0.00 1980-11-01 0.02 1980-12-01 0.98 1981-01-01 3.18 1981-02-01 3.04 1981-03-01 2.06 1981-04-01 2.12 1981-05-01 1.76 1981-06-01 1.76 1981-07-01 4.44 1981-08-01 49.90 1981-09-01 86.46 1981-10-01 95.10 1981-11-01 97.18 1981-12-01 97.16 1982-01-01 94.50 1982-02-01 16.54 1982-03-01 72.76 1982-04-01 82.56 1982-05-01 85.34 1982-06-01 88.98 1982-07-01 88.92 1982-08-01 88.16 1982-09-01 85.86 1982-10-01 82.98 1982-11-01 51.08 1982-12-01 19.00 1983-01-01 0.80 1983-02-01 2.00 1983-03-01 0.12 1983-04-01 0.02 1983-05-01 0.00 1983-06-01 0.00 1983-07-01 0.00 1983-08-01 0.28 1983-09-01 0.00 1983-10-01 0.02 1983-11-01 0.04 1983-12-01 0.00 1984-01-01 0.00 1984-02-01 0.04 1984-03-01 0.06 1984-04-01 0.00 1984-05-01 0.02 1984-06-01 0.00 1984-07-01 0.08 1984-08-01 0.08 1984-09-01 0.08 1984-10-01 0.14 1984-11-01 0.06 1984-12-01 0.10 1985-01-01 0.12 1985-02-01 0.10 1985-03-01 0.06 1985-04-01 0.22 1985-05-01 0.08 1985-06-01 0.46 1985-07-01 0.54 1985-08-01 0.02 1985-09-01 0.12 1985-10-01 0.14 1985-11-01 0.00 1985-12-01 0.02 1986-01-01 0.08 1986-02-01 0.44 1986-03-01 0.34 1986-04-01 0.12 1986-05-01 0.24 1986-06-01 0.30 1986-07-01 0.06 1986-08-01 0.10 1986-09-01 0.06 1986-10-01 0.12 1986-11-01 0.04 1986-12-01 0.10 1987-01-01 0.78 1987-02-01 0.00 1987-03-01 0.06 1987-04-01 0.00 1987-05-01 0.04 1987-06-01 0.00 1987-07-01 0.00 1987-08-01 0.02 1987-09-01 0.06 1987-10-01 0.02 1987-11-01 0.10 1987-12-01 0.02 1988-01-01 0.30 1988-02-01 0.00 1988-03-01 0.04 1988-04-01 0.04 1988-05-01 0.20 1988-06-01 0.02 1988-07-01 0.14 1988-08-01 0.04 1988-09-01 0.06 1988-10-01 0.00 1988-11-01 0.04 1988-12-01 0.00 1989-01-01 0.14 1989-02-01 0.86 1989-03-01 0.74 1989-04-01 1.18 1989-05-01 1.48 1989-06-01 1.02 1989-07-01 1.34 1989-08-01 0.16 1989-09-01 0.18 1989-10-01 0.06 1989-11-01 0.02 1989-12-01 0.08 1990-01-01 0.28 1990-02-01 0.04 1990-03-01 0.14 1990-04-01 1.06 1990-05-01 2.06 1990-06-01 3.94 1990-07-01 13.80 1990-08-01 27.54 1990-09-01 46.14 1990-10-01 72.24 1990-11-01 75.32 1990-12-01 73.90 1991-01-01 72.60 1991-02-01 65.28 1991-03-01 44.30 1991-04-01 5.72 1991-05-01 0.96 1991-06-01 0.42 1991-07-01 0.56 1991-08-01 0.42 1991-09-01 0.26 1991-10-01 0.62 1991-11-01 0.72 1991-12-01 0.72 1992-01-01 0.30 1992-02-01 0.08 1992-03-01 0.00 1992-04-01 0.02 1992-05-01 0.06 1992-06-01 0.06 1992-07-01 0.06 1992-08-01 0.36 1992-09-01 0.18 1992-10-01 0.04 1992-11-01 0.02 1992-12-01 0.02 1993-01-01 0.02 1993-02-01 0.16 1993-03-01 0.80 1993-04-01 0.12 1993-05-01 0.18 1993-06-01 0.16 1993-07-01 0.08 1993-08-01 0.12 1993-09-01 0.04 1993-10-01 0.06 1993-11-01 0.00 1993-12-01 0.00 1994-01-01 0.04 1994-02-01 0.02 1994-03-01 0.00 1994-04-01 0.00 1994-05-01 0.02 1994-06-01 0.00 1994-07-01 0.02 1994-08-01 0.02 1994-09-01 0.06 1994-10-01 0.00 1994-11-01 0.00 1994-12-01 0.00 1995-01-01 0.12 1995-02-01 0.32 1995-03-01 0.22 1995-04-01 0.16 1995-05-01 0.14 1995-06-01 0.00 1995-07-01 0.16 1995-08-01 0.00 1995-09-01 0.04 1995-10-01 0.14 1995-11-01 0.08 1995-12-01 0.06 1996-01-01 0.34 1996-02-01 0.00 1996-03-01 0.12 1996-04-01 0.08 1996-05-01 0.00 1996-06-01 0.02 1996-07-01 0.12 1996-08-01 0.00 1996-09-01 0.04 1996-10-01 0.06 1996-11-01 0.02 1996-12-01 0.02 1997-01-01 0.04 1997-02-01 0.00 1997-03-01 0.02 1997-04-01 0.08 1997-05-01 0.04 1997-06-01 0.02 1997-07-01 0.02 1997-08-01 0.06 1997-09-01 0.00 1997-10-01 0.00 1997-11-01 0.00 1997-12-01 0.02 1998-01-01 0.00 1998-02-01 0.08 1998-03-01 0.06 1998-04-01 0.06 1998-05-01 0.08 1998-06-01 0.62 1998-07-01 0.40 1998-08-01 0.02 1998-09-01 0.06 1998-10-01 0.00 1998-11-01 0.06 1998-12-01 0.08 1999-01-01 0.10 1999-02-01 0.02 1999-03-01 0.06 1999-04-01 0.04 1999-05-01 0.02 1999-06-01 0.06 1999-07-01 0.02 1999-08-01 0.00 1999-09-01 0.04 1999-10-01 0.00 1999-11-01 0.00 1999-12-01 0.04 2000-01-01 0.02 2000-02-01 0.12 2000-03-01 0.04 2000-04-01 0.04 2000-05-01 0.38 2000-06-01 0.44 2000-07-01 0.72 2000-08-01 1.16 2000-09-01 1.56 2000-10-01 4.56 2000-11-01 7.08 2000-12-01 12.70 2001-01-01 24.48 2001-02-01 30.92 2001-03-01 38.92 2001-04-01 45.74 2001-05-01 45.90 2001-06-01 45.94 2001-07-01 44.06 2001-08-01 41.10 2001-09-01 40.40 2001-10-01 32.78 2001-11-01 25.50 2001-12-01 12.50 2002-01-01 6.08 2002-02-01 4.04 2002-03-01 1.56 2002-04-01 0.82 2002-05-01 0.60 2002-06-01 0.52 2002-07-01 1.36 2002-08-01 0.78 2002-09-01 0.78 2002-10-01 0.74 2002-11-01 0.68 2002-12-01 1.38 2003-01-01 0.72 2003-02-01 1.40 2003-03-01 1.12 2003-04-01 0.64 2003-05-01 0.10 2003-06-01 0.18 2003-07-01 0.10 2003-08-01 0.20 2003-09-01 0.08 2003-10-01 0.12 2003-11-01 0.02 2003-12-01 0.22 2004-01-01 0.18 2004-02-01 0.10 2004-03-01 0.04 2004-04-01 0.04 2004-05-01 0.08 2004-06-01 1.10 2004-07-01 0.14 2004-08-01 0.06 2004-09-01 0.02 2004-10-01 0.02 2004-11-01 0.06 2004-12-01 0.00 2005-01-01 0.02 2005-02-01 0.04 2005-03-01 0.18 2005-04-01 0.00 2005-05-01 0.10 2005-06-01 0.14 2005-07-01 0.60 2005-08-01 1.78 2005-09-01 7.58 2005-10-01 0.06 2005-11-01 0.00 2005-12-01 0.08 2006-01-01 0.02 2006-02-01 0.02 2006-03-01 0.06 2006-04-01 0.18 2006-05-01 0.14 2006-06-01 0.08 2006-07-01 0.02 2006-08-01 0.08 2006-09-01 0.14 2006-10-01 0.16 2006-11-01 0.00 2006-12-01 0.00 2007-01-01 0.26 2007-02-01 0.00 2007-03-01 0.04 2007-04-01 0.06 2007-05-01 0.16 2007-06-01 0.30 2007-07-01 0.52 2007-08-01 0.52 2007-09-01 0.82 2007-10-01 2.08 2007-11-01 3.38 2007-12-01 11.78 2008-01-01 29.34 2008-02-01 54.82 2008-03-01 71.46 2008-04-01 84.98 2008-05-01 90.28 2008-06-01 93.28 2008-07-01 98.00 2008-08-01 99.74 2008-09-01 99.98 2008-10-01 95.86 2008-11-01 99.92 2008-12-01 100.00 2009-01-01 100.00 2009-02-01 99.84 2009-03-01 99.90 2009-04-01 97.44 2009-05-01 90.26 2009-06-01 72.10 2009-07-01 5.66 2009-08-01 1.24 2009-09-01 0.86 2009-10-01 0.52 2009-11-01 0.18 2009-12-01 0.14 2010-01-01 0.06 2010-02-01 0.04 2010-03-01 0.02 2010-04-01 0.00 2010-05-01 0.00 2010-06-01 0.54 2010-07-01 0.22 2010-08-01 0.06 2010-09-01 0.16 2010-10-01 0.12 2010-11-01 0.02 2010-12-01 0.00 2011-01-01 0.06 2011-02-01 0.28 2011-03-01 0.06 2011-04-01 0.26 2011-05-01 0.14 2011-06-01 0.02 2011-07-01 0.02 2011-08-01 0.06 2011-09-01 0.02 2011-10-01 0.00 2011-11-01 0.12 2011-12-01 0.00 2012-01-01 0.04 2012-02-01 0.06 2012-03-01 0.22 2012-04-01 0.06 2012-05-01 0.18 2012-06-01 0.24 2012-07-01 0.26 2012-08-01 0.36 2012-09-01 0.04 2012-10-01 0.02 2012-11-01 0.00 2012-12-01 0.06 2013-01-01 0.12 2013-02-01 0.02 2013-03-01 0.06 2013-04-01 0.08 2013-05-01 0.06 2013-06-01 0.12 2013-07-01 0.32 2013-08-01 0.06 2013-09-01 0.02 2013-10-01 0.08 2013-11-01 0.00 2013-12-01 0.08 2014-01-01 0.26 2014-02-01 0.00 2014-03-01 0.02 2014-04-01 0.02 2014-05-01 0.06 2014-06-01 0.02 2014-07-01 0.00 2014-08-01 0.04 2014-09-01 0.08 2014-10-01 0.00 2014-11-01 0.00 2014-12-01 0.08 2015-01-01 0.42 2015-02-01 0.98 2015-03-01 1.00 2015-04-01 0.66 2015-05-01 0.92 2015-06-01 0.52 2015-07-01 0.20 2015-08-01 0.46 2015-09-01 0.46 2015-10-01 0.62 2015-11-01 1.14 2015-12-01 0.82 2016-01-01 0.54 2016-02-01 1.08 2016-03-01 0.96 2016-04-01 0.42 2016-05-01 0.30 2016-06-01 0.10 2016-07-01 0.04 2016-08-01 0.16 2016-09-01 0.14 2016-10-01 0.10 2016-11-01 0.10 2016-12-01 0.08 2017-01-01 0.10 2017-02-01 0.18 2017-03-01 0.04 2017-04-01 0.04 2017-05-01 0.06 2017-06-01 0.04 2017-07-01 0.10 2017-08-01 0.16 2017-09-01 0.08 2017-10-01 0.00 2017-11-01 0.00 2017-12-01 0.08 2018-01-01 0.36 2018-02-01 0.10 2018-03-01 0.02 2018-04-01 0.02 2018-05-01 0.12 2018-06-01 0.02 2018-07-01 0.00 2018-08-01 0.00 2018-09-01 0.12 2018-10-01 0.10 2018-11-01 0.06 2018-12-01 0.08 2019-01-01 0.54 2019-02-01 0.74 2019-03-01 0.46 2019-04-01 0.66 2019-05-01 0.24 2019-06-01 0.12 2019-07-01 0.08 2019-08-01 0.02 2019-09-01 0.24 2019-10-01 0.30 2019-11-01 0.02 2019-12-01 0.40 2020-01-01 0.12 2020-02-01 0.06 2020-03-01 100.00 2020-04-01 100.00 2020-05-01 0.04 2020-06-01 0.02 2020-07-01 0.02 2020-08-01 0.00 2020-09-01 0.02 2020-10-01 0.08 2020-11-01 0.38 2020-12-01 0.32 2021-01-01 0.36