Table Data - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Title	Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Series ID	RECPROUSM156N
Source	Chauvet, Marcelle, Piger, Jeremy Max
Release	U.S. Recession Probabilities
Seasonal Adjustment	Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency	Monthly
Units	Percent
Date Range	1967-06-01 to 2024-06-01
Last Updated	2024-08-01 1:23 PM CDT
Notes	Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see: Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49. For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3.

DATE	VALUE
1967-06-01	0.84
1967-07-01	0.40
1967-08-01	0.02
1967-09-01	0.28
1967-10-01	0.10
1967-11-01	0.00
1967-12-01	0.08
1968-01-01	1.24
1968-02-01	0.08
1968-03-01	0.06
1968-04-01	0.02
1968-05-01	0.02
1968-06-01	0.02
1968-07-01	0.04
1968-08-01	0.10
1968-09-01	0.00
1968-10-01	0.00
1968-11-01	0.00
1968-12-01	0.16
1969-01-01	0.04
1969-02-01	0.02
1969-03-01	0.00
1969-04-01	0.22
1969-05-01	0.08
1969-06-01	0.02
1969-07-01	0.12
1969-08-01	0.24
1969-09-01	4.48
1969-10-01	7.12
1969-11-01	38.36
1969-12-01	42.30
1970-01-01	52.22
1970-02-01	41.96
1970-03-01	42.36
1970-04-01	45.08
1970-05-01	42.26
1970-06-01	40.64
1970-07-01	41.28
1970-08-01	58.70
1970-09-01	76.10
1970-10-01	84.30
1970-11-01	33.18
1970-12-01	0.00
1971-01-01	0.08
1971-02-01	1.02
1971-03-01	0.38
1971-04-01	0.04
1971-05-01	0.02
1971-06-01	0.20
1971-07-01	0.44
1971-08-01	0.16
1971-09-01	0.00
1971-10-01	0.08
1971-11-01	0.04
1971-12-01	0.02
1972-01-01	0.00
1972-02-01	0.00
1972-03-01	0.00
1972-04-01	0.04
1972-05-01	0.06
1972-06-01	0.04
1972-07-01	0.20
1972-08-01	0.00
1972-09-01	0.00
1972-10-01	0.00
1972-11-01	0.00
1972-12-01	0.00
1973-01-01	0.00
1973-02-01	0.00
1973-03-01	0.44
1973-04-01	0.32
1973-05-01	0.04
1973-06-01	0.02
1973-07-01	0.00
1973-08-01	0.16
1973-09-01	0.02
1973-10-01	0.06
1973-11-01	1.00
1973-12-01	31.02
1974-01-01	34.86
1974-02-01	29.64
1974-03-01	27.14
1974-04-01	26.28
1974-05-01	25.18
1974-06-01	37.10
1974-07-01	48.74
1974-08-01	80.80
1974-09-01	85.06
1974-10-01	94.96
1974-11-01	100.00
1974-12-01	100.00
1975-01-01	99.82
1975-02-01	99.78
1975-03-01	93.72
1975-04-01	17.84
1975-05-01	2.76
1975-06-01	0.60
1975-07-01	0.12
1975-08-01	0.02
1975-09-01	0.00
1975-10-01	0.00
1975-11-01	0.04
1975-12-01	0.00
1976-01-01	0.00
1976-02-01	0.00
1976-03-01	0.10
1976-04-01	0.04
1976-05-01	0.06
1976-06-01	0.06
1976-07-01	0.04
1976-08-01	0.00
1976-09-01	0.02
1976-10-01	0.10
1976-11-01	0.00
1976-12-01	0.02
1977-01-01	0.44
1977-02-01	0.00
1977-03-01	0.00
1977-04-01	0.00
1977-05-01	0.02
1977-06-01	0.00
1977-07-01	0.08
1977-08-01	0.04
1977-09-01	0.00
1977-10-01	0.04
1977-11-01	0.18
1977-12-01	1.06
1978-01-01	14.98
1978-02-01	0.06
1978-03-01	0.00
1978-04-01	0.00
1978-05-01	0.26
1978-06-01	0.10
1978-07-01	0.22
1978-08-01	0.04
1978-09-01	0.04
1978-10-01	0.00
1978-11-01	0.00
1978-12-01	0.06
1979-01-01	1.18
1979-02-01	0.68
1979-03-01	1.32
1979-04-01	30.14
1979-05-01	1.34
1979-06-01	1.88
1979-07-01	2.56
1979-08-01	3.12
1979-09-01	2.52
1979-10-01	2.06
1979-11-01	2.90
1979-12-01	4.50
1980-01-01	7.90
1980-02-01	40.98
1980-03-01	87.68
1980-04-01	99.70
1980-05-01	99.74
1980-06-01	87.06
1980-07-01	31.66
1980-08-01	0.40
1980-09-01	0.00
1980-10-01	0.00
1980-11-01	0.02
1980-12-01	0.62
1981-01-01	2.64
1981-02-01	2.24
1981-03-01	1.08
1981-04-01	1.38
1981-05-01	0.98
1981-06-01	1.28
1981-07-01	3.42
1981-08-01	47.76
1981-09-01	82.14
1981-10-01	92.90
1981-11-01	95.48
1981-12-01	95.62
1982-01-01	92.90
1982-02-01	13.60
1982-03-01	62.62
1982-04-01	74.50
1982-05-01	77.68
1982-06-01	80.96
1982-07-01	81.02
1982-08-01	79.54
1982-09-01	76.18
1982-10-01	73.26
1982-11-01	39.94
1982-12-01	16.50
1983-01-01	0.70
1983-02-01	1.64
1983-03-01	0.06
1983-04-01	0.02
1983-05-01	0.00
1983-06-01	0.00
1983-07-01	0.00
1983-08-01	0.10
1983-09-01	0.00
1983-10-01	0.00
1983-11-01	0.02
1983-12-01	0.00
1984-01-01	0.00
1984-02-01	0.06
1984-03-01	0.04
1984-04-01	0.02
1984-05-01	0.00
1984-06-01	0.02
1984-07-01	0.08
1984-08-01	0.08
1984-09-01	0.06
1984-10-01	0.10
1984-11-01	0.06
1984-12-01	0.10
1985-01-01	0.18
1985-02-01	0.08
1985-03-01	0.04
1985-04-01	0.18
1985-05-01	0.10
1985-06-01	0.32
1985-07-01	0.26
1985-08-01	0.04
1985-09-01	0.04
1985-10-01	0.24
1985-11-01	0.06
1985-12-01	0.00
1986-01-01	0.04
1986-02-01	0.50
1986-03-01	0.44
1986-04-01	0.10
1986-05-01	0.10
1986-06-01	0.26
1986-07-01	0.00
1986-08-01	0.04
1986-09-01	0.02
1986-10-01	0.12
1986-11-01	0.06
1986-12-01	0.08
1987-01-01	0.68
1987-02-01	0.00
1987-03-01	0.00
1987-04-01	0.04
1987-05-01	0.02
1987-06-01	0.02
1987-07-01	0.00
1987-08-01	0.02
1987-09-01	0.04
1987-10-01	0.00
1987-11-01	0.08
1987-12-01	0.04
1988-01-01	0.28
1988-02-01	0.00
1988-03-01	0.04
1988-04-01	0.02
1988-05-01	0.08
1988-06-01	0.02
1988-07-01	0.04
1988-08-01	0.06
1988-09-01	0.06
1988-10-01	0.00
1988-11-01	0.02
1988-12-01	0.00
1989-01-01	0.16
1989-02-01	0.74
1989-03-01	0.56
1989-04-01	0.70
1989-05-01	1.30
1989-06-01	1.02
1989-07-01	1.10
1989-08-01	0.14
1989-09-01	0.22
1989-10-01	0.32
1989-11-01	0.14
1989-12-01	0.10
1990-01-01	0.20
1990-02-01	0.08
1990-03-01	0.24
1990-04-01	1.34
1990-05-01	1.50
1990-06-01	2.96
1990-07-01	10.72
1990-08-01	20.66
1990-09-01	38.64
1990-10-01	60.54
1990-11-01	64.58
1990-12-01	63.44
1991-01-01	61.58
1991-02-01	53.86
1991-03-01	35.32
1991-04-01	4.84
1991-05-01	0.76
1991-06-01	0.26
1991-07-01	0.40
1991-08-01	0.30
1991-09-01	0.30
1991-10-01	0.64
1991-11-01	0.78
1991-12-01	0.76
1992-01-01	0.46
1992-02-01	0.06
1992-03-01	0.04
1992-04-01	0.02
1992-05-01	0.04
1992-06-01	0.00
1992-07-01	0.02
1992-08-01	0.32
1992-09-01	0.08
1992-10-01	0.02
1992-11-01	0.00
1992-12-01	0.02
1993-01-01	0.02
1993-02-01	0.10
1993-03-01	0.80
1993-04-01	0.12
1993-05-01	0.14
1993-06-01	0.10
1993-07-01	0.06
1993-08-01	0.04
1993-09-01	0.04
1993-10-01	0.00
1993-11-01	0.00
1993-12-01	0.00
1994-01-01	0.02
1994-02-01	0.08
1994-03-01	0.00
1994-04-01	0.00
1994-05-01	0.02
1994-06-01	0.00
1994-07-01	0.04
1994-08-01	0.00
1994-09-01	0.00
1994-10-01	0.04
1994-11-01	0.04
1994-12-01	0.00
1995-01-01	0.10
1995-02-01	0.30
1995-03-01	0.26
1995-04-01	0.38
1995-05-01	0.12
1995-06-01	0.10
1995-07-01	0.24
1995-08-01	0.02
1995-09-01	0.06
1995-10-01	0.22
1995-11-01	0.16
1995-12-01	0.12
1996-01-01	0.44
1996-02-01	0.00
1996-03-01	0.06
1996-04-01	0.00
1996-05-01	0.00
1996-06-01	0.02
1996-07-01	0.08
1996-08-01	0.04
1996-09-01	0.02
1996-10-01	0.04
1996-11-01	0.02
1996-12-01	0.00
1997-01-01	0.00
1997-02-01	0.00
1997-03-01	0.02
1997-04-01	0.08
1997-05-01	0.02
1997-06-01	0.00
1997-07-01	0.00
1997-08-01	0.00
1997-09-01	0.00
1997-10-01	0.04
1997-11-01	0.00
1997-12-01	0.02
1998-01-01	0.00
1998-02-01	0.06
1998-03-01	0.08
1998-04-01	0.00
1998-05-01	0.04
1998-06-01	0.56
1998-07-01	0.36
1998-08-01	0.00
1998-09-01	0.06
1998-10-01	0.02
1998-11-01	0.02
1998-12-01	0.00
1999-01-01	0.02
1999-02-01	0.00
1999-03-01	0.00
1999-04-01	0.04
1999-05-01	0.02
1999-06-01	0.02
1999-07-01	0.00
1999-08-01	0.02
1999-09-01	0.14
1999-10-01	0.00
1999-11-01	0.00
1999-12-01	0.00
2000-01-01	0.08
2000-02-01	0.18
2000-03-01	0.06
2000-04-01	0.04
2000-05-01	0.44
2000-06-01	0.38
2000-07-01	0.60
2000-08-01	0.82
2000-09-01	1.02
2000-10-01	3.52
2000-11-01	4.86
2000-12-01	8.72
2001-01-01	16.80
2001-02-01	22.76
2001-03-01	28.04
2001-04-01	33.56
2001-05-01	33.44
2001-06-01	34.32
2001-07-01	32.92
2001-08-01	30.84
2001-09-01	30.54
2001-10-01	23.38
2001-11-01	17.90
2001-12-01	8.16
2002-01-01	3.24
2002-02-01	2.06
2002-03-01	0.88
2002-04-01	0.58
2002-05-01	0.34
2002-06-01	0.24
2002-07-01	0.78
2002-08-01	0.58
2002-09-01	0.46
2002-10-01	0.46
2002-11-01	0.38
2002-12-01	0.96
2003-01-01	0.42
2003-02-01	1.02
2003-03-01	0.88
2003-04-01	0.56
2003-05-01	0.22
2003-06-01	0.10
2003-07-01	0.08
2003-08-01	0.10
2003-09-01	0.00
2003-10-01	0.00
2003-11-01	0.04
2003-12-01	0.08
2004-01-01	0.08
2004-02-01	0.02
2004-03-01	0.06
2004-04-01	0.08
2004-05-01	0.10
2004-06-01	0.84
2004-07-01	0.12
2004-08-01	0.10
2004-09-01	0.08
2004-10-01	0.04
2004-11-01	0.10
2004-12-01	0.02
2005-01-01	0.04
2005-02-01	0.08
2005-03-01	0.18
2005-04-01	0.04
2005-05-01	0.06
2005-06-01	0.08
2005-07-01	0.46
2005-08-01	1.66
2005-09-01	9.94
2005-10-01	0.16
2005-11-01	0.00
2005-12-01	0.00
2006-01-01	0.00
2006-02-01	0.04
2006-03-01	0.06
2006-04-01	0.20
2006-05-01	0.26
2006-06-01	0.16
2006-07-01	0.20
2006-08-01	0.10
2006-09-01	0.14
2006-10-01	0.16
2006-11-01	0.06
2006-12-01	0.00
2007-01-01	0.38
2007-02-01	0.06
2007-03-01	0.08
2007-04-01	0.10
2007-05-01	0.22
2007-06-01	0.22
2007-07-01	0.44
2007-08-01	0.26
2007-09-01	0.34
2007-10-01	1.24
2007-11-01	1.94
2007-12-01	7.02
2008-01-01	20.26
2008-02-01	47.98
2008-03-01	65.84
2008-04-01	78.56
2008-05-01	84.82
2008-06-01	89.48
2008-07-01	96.24
2008-08-01	99.68
2008-09-01	100.00
2008-10-01	90.12
2008-11-01	99.82
2008-12-01	100.00
2009-01-01	100.00
2009-02-01	99.84
2009-03-01	99.80
2009-04-01	97.86
2009-05-01	90.50
2009-06-01	66.24
2009-07-01	3.42
2009-08-01	0.58
2009-09-01	0.38
2009-10-01	0.18
2009-11-01	0.10
2009-12-01	0.12
2010-01-01	0.00
2010-02-01	0.00
2010-03-01	0.00
2010-04-01	0.00
2010-05-01	0.02
2010-06-01	0.34
2010-07-01	0.16
2010-08-01	0.06
2010-09-01	0.10
2010-10-01	0.04
2010-11-01	0.04
2010-12-01	0.00
2011-01-01	0.08
2011-02-01	0.30
2011-03-01	0.06
2011-04-01	0.26
2011-05-01	0.26
2011-06-01	0.00
2011-07-01	0.02
2011-08-01	0.02
2011-09-01	0.08
2011-10-01	0.06
2011-11-01	0.04
2011-12-01	0.00
2012-01-01	0.00
2012-02-01	0.06
2012-03-01	0.32
2012-04-01	0.14
2012-05-01	0.16
2012-06-01	0.24
2012-07-01	0.28
2012-08-01	0.28
2012-09-01	0.08
2012-10-01	0.08
2012-11-01	0.00
2012-12-01	0.02
2013-01-01	0.06
2013-02-01	0.08
2013-03-01	0.08
2013-04-01	0.06
2013-05-01	0.04
2013-06-01	0.18
2013-07-01	0.26
2013-08-01	0.06
2013-09-01	0.02
2013-10-01	0.04
2013-11-01	0.04
2013-12-01	0.14
2014-01-01	0.22
2014-02-01	0.00
2014-03-01	0.02
2014-04-01	0.06
2014-05-01	0.04
2014-06-01	0.06
2014-07-01	0.04
2014-08-01	0.08
2014-09-01	0.12
2014-10-01	0.08
2014-11-01	0.06
2014-12-01	0.12
2015-01-01	0.64
2015-02-01	1.08
2015-03-01	0.96
2015-04-01	0.62
2015-05-01	0.70
2015-06-01	0.52
2015-07-01	0.22
2015-08-01	0.50
2015-09-01	0.54
2015-10-01	0.78
2015-11-01	1.18
2015-12-01	0.76
2016-01-01	0.50
2016-02-01	0.76
2016-03-01	0.56
2016-04-01	0.50
2016-05-01	0.52
2016-06-01	0.10
2016-07-01	0.06
2016-08-01	0.20
2016-09-01	0.12
2016-10-01	0.20
2016-11-01	0.24
2016-12-01	0.08
2017-01-01	0.26
2017-02-01	0.20
2017-03-01	0.14
2017-04-01	0.04
2017-05-01	0.04
2017-06-01	0.04
2017-07-01	0.12
2017-08-01	0.12
2017-09-01	0.04
2017-10-01	0.00
2017-11-01	0.02
2017-12-01	0.04
2018-01-01	0.30
2018-02-01	0.04
2018-03-01	0.06
2018-04-01	0.04
2018-05-01	0.12
2018-06-01	0.06
2018-07-01	0.10
2018-08-01	0.00
2018-09-01	0.26
2018-10-01	0.44
2018-11-01	0.26
2018-12-01	0.28
2019-01-01	1.08
2019-02-01	1.08
2019-03-01	0.76
2019-04-01	0.92
2019-05-01	0.48
2019-06-01	0.32
2019-07-01	0.36
2019-08-01	0.22
2019-09-01	1.04
2019-10-01	1.60
2019-11-01	0.54
2019-12-01	0.68
2020-01-01	0.26
2020-02-01	0.06
2020-03-01	100.00
2020-04-01	100.00
2020-05-01	0.04
2020-06-01	0.02
2020-07-01	0.00
2020-08-01	0.00
2020-09-01	0.00
2020-10-01	0.06
2020-11-01	0.24
2020-12-01	0.02
2021-01-01	0.02
2021-02-01	0.00
2021-03-01	0.00
2021-04-01	0.20
2021-05-01	0.10
2021-06-01	0.00
2021-07-01	0.02
2021-08-01	0.34
2021-09-01	0.40
2021-10-01	0.00
2021-11-01	0.04
2021-12-01	0.24
2022-01-01	0.34
2022-02-01	0.06
2022-03-01	0.04
2022-04-01	0.28
2022-05-01	0.36
2022-06-01	0.20
2022-07-01	0.00
2022-08-01	0.08
2022-09-01	0.08
2022-10-01	0.50
2022-11-01	0.98
2022-12-01	0.98
2023-01-01	0.06
2023-02-01	0.22
2023-03-01	0.28
2023-04-01	0.14
2023-05-01	0.08
2023-06-01	0.16
2023-07-01	0.08
2023-08-01	0.16
2023-09-01	0.12
2023-10-01	0.56
2023-11-01	0.26
2023-12-01	0.38
2024-01-01	0.92
2024-02-01	0.12
2024-03-01	0.18
2024-04-01	0.14
2024-05-01	0.06
2024-06-01	0.16

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