Title:               Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Central Tendency, Low
Series ID:           UNRATECTLLR
Source:              U.S. Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Release:             Summary of Economic Projections (Not a Press Release)
Seasonal Adjustment: Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency:           Not Applicable
Units:               Fourth Quarter, Percent
Date Range:          2009-02-18 to 2024-03-20
Last Updated:        2024-03-20 2:08 PM CDT
Notes:               The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and
                     unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge
                     over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate
                     monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition,
                     is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum
                     employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers'
                     longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be
                     interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run
                     potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment;
                     similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of
                     inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual
                     mandate in the longer-term.
                     
                     Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian
                     unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each
                     participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of
                     appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given
                     year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest,
                     for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude
                     the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This
                     series represents the low value of the central tendency forecast
                     established by the Federal Open Market Committee.
                     
                     Digitized originals of this release can be found at
                     https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

DATE       VALUE
2009-02-18   4.8
2009-05-20   4.8
2009-07-15   4.8
2009-11-24   5.0
2010-02-17   5.0
2010-05-19   5.0
2010-07-14   5.0
2010-11-23   5.0
2011-02-16   5.0
2011-04-27   5.2
2011-06-22   5.2
2011-11-02   5.2
2012-01-25   5.2
2012-04-25   5.2
2012-06-20   5.2
2012-09-13   5.2
2012-12-12   5.2
2013-03-20   5.2
2013-06-19   5.2
2013-09-18   5.2
2013-12-18   5.2
2014-03-19   5.2
2014-06-18   5.2
2014-09-17   5.2
2014-12-17   5.2
2015-03-18   5.0
2015-06-17   5.0
2015-09-17   4.9
2015-12-16   4.8
2016-03-16   4.7
2016-06-15   4.7
2016-09-21   4.7
2016-12-14   4.7
2017-03-15   4.7
2017-06-14   4.5
2017-09-20   4.5
2017-12-13   4.4
2018-03-21   4.3
2018-06-13   4.3
2018-09-26   4.3
2018-12-19   4.2
2019-03-20   4.1
2019-06-19   4.0
2019-09-18   4.0
2019-12-11   3.9
2020-06-10   4.0
2020-09-16   3.9
2020-12-16   3.9
2021-03-17   3.8
2021-06-16   3.8
2021-09-22   3.8
2021-12-15   3.8
2022-03-16   3.5
2022-06-15   3.5
2022-09-21   3.8
2022-12-14   3.8
2023-03-22   3.8
2023-06-14   3.8
2023-09-20   3.8
2023-12-13   3.8
2024-03-20   3.8