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Release Tables:
Summary of Economic Projections

   
    2020    
 
 
    2023
Name 2023 Preceding
Period
Year Ago
from Period
Units
MEDIAN
Change in real GDP
2.5 3.0 3.0 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
4.0 4.6 4.6 %
PCE inflation
2.0 1.8 1.8 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.0 1.8 1.8 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
0.1 0.1 0.1 %
CENTRAL TENDENCY LOW
Change in real GDP
2.4 2.5 2.5 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
3.5 4.0 4.0 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
1.9 1.7 1.7 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
1.9 1.7 1.7 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
0.1 0.1 0.1 %
CENTRAL TENDENCY MIDPOINT
Change in real GDP
2.70 2.90 2.90 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
3.95 4.50 4.50 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
1.95 1.80 1.80 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
1.95 1.80 1.80 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
0.25 0.10 0.10 %
CENTRAL TENDENCY HIGH
Change in real GDP
3.0 3.3 3.3 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
4.4 5.0 5.0 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.0 1.9 1.9 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.0 1.9 1.9 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
0.4 0.1 0.1 %
RANGE LOW
Change in real GDP
2.0 2.0 2.0 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
3.5 3.5 3.5 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
1.7 1.5 1.5 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
1.7 1.6 1.6 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
0.1 0.1 0.1 %
RANGE MIDPOINT
Change in real GDP
3.00 3.25 3.25 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
4.75 5.50 5.50 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
1.90 1.85 1.85 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
1.90 1.90 1.90 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
0.75 0.35 0.35 %
RANGE HIGH
Change in real GDP
4.0 4.5 4.5 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
6.0 7.5 7.5 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.1 2.2 2.2 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.1 2.2 2.2 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
1.4 0.6 0.6 %
   

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