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Release Tables:
Summary of Economic Projections

   
    2022    
 
 
    2025
Name 2025 Preceding
Period
Year Ago
from Period
Units
MEDIAN
Change in real GDP
1.8 1.7 1.7 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
4.3 4.4 4.4 %
PCE inflation
2.0 2.3 2.3 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.1 2.3 2.3 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
2.9 3.9 3.9 %
CENTRAL TENDENCY LOW
Change in real GDP
1.6 1.4 1.4 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
4.0 4.0 4.0 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.0 2.1 2.1 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.0 2.2 2.2 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
2.4 3.4 3.4 %
CENTRAL TENDENCY MIDPOINT
Change in real GDP
1.8 1.7 1.7 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
4.25 4.30 4.30 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.10 2.35 2.35 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.10 2.35 2.35 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
2.90 3.90 3.90 %
CENTRAL TENDENCY HIGH
Change in real GDP
2.0 2.0 2.0 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
4.5 4.6 4.6 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.2 2.6 2.6 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.2 2.5 2.5 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
3.4 4.4 4.4 %
RANGE LOW
Change in real GDP
1.4 1.0 1.0 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
3.7 3.7 3.7 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.0 2.0 2.0 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.0 2.0 2.0 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
2.4 2.6 2.6 %
RANGE MIDPOINT
Change in real GDP
1.90 1.80 1.80 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
4.15 4.20 4.20 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.25 2.50 2.50 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.25 2.40 2.40 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
3.50 3.60 3.60 %
RANGE HIGH
Change in real GDP
2.4 2.6 2.6 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
4.6 4.7 4.7 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.5 3.0 3.0 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.5 2.8 2.8 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
4.6 4.6 4.6 %
   

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