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Release Tables:
Summary of Economic Projections

   
    2019    
 
 
    2021
Name 2021 Preceding
Period
Year Ago
from Period
Units
MEDIAN
Change in real GDP
1.8 2.0 2.0 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
3.8 3.7 3.7 %
PCE inflation
2.0 1.9 1.9 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.0 1.9 1.9 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
2.4 2.1 2.1 %
CENTRAL TENDENCY LOW
Change in real GDP
1.8 1.8 1.8 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
3.6 3.5 3.5 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.0 1.9 1.9 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.0 1.9 1.9 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
1.9 1.9 1.9 %
CENTRAL TENDENCY MIDPOINT
Change in real GDP
1.9 2.0 2.0 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
3.80 3.70 3.70 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.05 1.95 1.95 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.05 1.95 1.95 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
2.25 2.15 2.15 %
CENTRAL TENDENCY HIGH
Change in real GDP
2.0 2.2 2.2 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
4.0 3.9 3.9 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.1 2.0 2.0 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.1 2.0 2.0 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
2.6 2.4 2.4 %
RANGE LOW
Change in real GDP
1.5 1.5 1.5 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
3.3 3.3 3.3 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
1.9 1.8 1.8 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
1.8 1.8 1.8 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
1.9 1.9 1.9 %
RANGE MIDPOINT
Change in real GDP
1.8 1.9 1.9 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
3.75 3.65 3.65 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.05 1.95 1.95 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.00 1.95 1.95 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
2.50 2.50 2.50 %
RANGE HIGH
Change in real GDP
2.1 2.3 2.3 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
4.2 4.0 4.0 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.2 2.1 2.1 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.2 2.1 2.1 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
3.1 3.1 3.1 %
   

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