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Release Tables:
Summary of Economic Projections

   
    2019    
 
 
    2021
Name 2021 Preceding
Period
Year Ago
from Period
Units
MEDIAN
Change in real GDP
1.8 1.9 1.9 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
3.9 3.8 3.8 %
PCE inflation
2.0 2.0 2.0 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2 2 2 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
2.6 2.6 2.6 %
CENTRAL TENDENCY LOW
Change in real GDP
1.7 1.8 1.8 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
3.7 3.6 3.6 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.0 2.0 2.0 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.0 2.0 2.0 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
2.4 2.4 2.4 %
CENTRAL TENDENCY MIDPOINT
Change in real GDP
1.85 1.90 1.90 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
3.90 3.75 3.75 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.05 2.05 2.05 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.05 2.05 2.05 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
2.65 2.65 2.65 %
CENTRAL TENDENCY HIGH
Change in real GDP
2.0 2.0 2.0 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
4.1 3.9 3.9 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.1 2.1 2.1 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.1 2.1 2.1 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
2.9 2.9 2.9 %
RANGE LOW
Change in real GDP
1.5 1.7 1.7 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
3.4 3.4 3.4 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.0 1.9 1.9 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
1.9 1.8 1.8 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
2.4 2.4 2.4 %
RANGE MIDPOINT
Change in real GDP
1.85 1.95 1.95 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
3.80 3.75 3.75 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.10 2.05 2.05 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.05 2.00 2.00 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
3.00 2.90 2.90 %
RANGE HIGH
Change in real GDP
2.2 2.2 2.2 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate
4.2 4.1 4.1 Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation
2.2 2.2 2.2 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation
2.2 2.2 2.2 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate
3.6 3.4 3.4 %
   

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