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    2026

	Name	2026	Preceding Period	Year Ago from Period	Units
	MEDIAN
	Change in real GDP	2.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Unemployment rate	4.0 Percent	4.1 Percent	4.1 Percent	%
	PCE inflation	2.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.2 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.2 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Core PCE inflation	2.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.2 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.2 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
	Federal funds rate	3.1 Percent	3.9 Percent	3.9 Percent	%
	CENTRAL TENDENCY LOW
	Change in real GDP	1.8 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	1.9 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	1.9 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Unemployment rate	3.9 Fourth Quarter, Percent	3.9 Fourth Quarter, Percent	3.9 Fourth Quarter, Percent	Fourth Qtr., %
	PCE inflation	2.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.1 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.1 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Core PCE inflation	2.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.1 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.1 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
	Federal funds rate	2.6 Percent	3.4 Percent	3.4 Percent	%
	CENTRAL TENDENCY MIDPOINT
	Change in real GDP	1.95 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.10 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.10 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Unemployment rate	4.10 Fourth Quarter, Percent	4.05 Fourth Quarter, Percent	4.05 Fourth Quarter, Percent	Fourth Qtr., %
	PCE inflation	2.05 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.15 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.15 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Core PCE inflation	2.05 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.20 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.20 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
	Federal funds rate	3.00 Percent	3.75 Percent	3.75 Percent	%
	CENTRAL TENDENCY HIGH
	Change in real GDP	2.1 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.3 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.3 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Unemployment rate	4.3 Fourth Quarter, Percent	4.2 Fourth Quarter, Percent	4.2 Fourth Quarter, Percent	Fourth Qtr., %
	PCE inflation	2.1 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.2 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.2 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Core PCE inflation	2.1 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.3 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.3 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
	Federal funds rate	3.4 Percent	4.1 Percent	4.1 Percent	%
	RANGE LOW
	Change in real GDP	1.7 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	1.7 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	1.7 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Unemployment rate	3.7 Fourth Quarter, Percent	3.7 Fourth Quarter, Percent	3.7 Fourth Quarter, Percent	Fourth Qtr., %
	PCE inflation	2.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Core PCE inflation	2.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
	Federal funds rate	2.4 Percent	2.6 Percent	2.6 Percent	%
	RANGE MIDPOINT
	Change in real GDP	2.1 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.1 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.1 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Unemployment rate	4.00 Fourth Quarter, Percent	4.00 Fourth Quarter, Percent	4.00 Fourth Quarter, Percent	Fourth Qtr., %
	PCE inflation	2.15 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.25 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.25 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Core PCE inflation	2.15 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.30 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.30 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
	Federal funds rate	3.65 Percent	4.00 Percent	4.00 Percent	%
	RANGE HIGH
	Change in real GDP	2.5 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.5 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.5 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Unemployment rate	4.3 Fourth Quarter, Percent	4.3 Fourth Quarter, Percent	4.3 Fourth Quarter, Percent	Fourth Qtr., %
	PCE inflation	2.3 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.5 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.5 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Core PCE inflation	2.3 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.6 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	2.6 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
	Federal funds rate	4.9 Percent	5.4 Percent	5.4 Percent	%

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