The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate. Their estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations. For more information, please visit the <a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland<a/>.

View data describing the spread between 10-Year and 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturities, which can indicate perceived economic outlook.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate. Their estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations. For more information, please visit the <a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland<a/>.

View a 10-year yield estimated from the average yields of a variety of Treasury securities with different maturities derived from the Treasury yield curve.

View the average 10-year expectation for the inflation rate among market participants, based upon Treasury securities.

View the spread between 10-Year and 3-month Treasury Constant Maturities, which is used to predict recession probabilities.

The spot rate for any maturity is defined as the yield on a bond that gives a single payment at that maturity. This is called a zero coupon bond. Because high quality zero coupon bonds are not generally available, the HQM methodology computes the spot rates so as to make them consistent with the yields on other high quality bonds. The HQM yield curve uses data from a set of high quality corporate bonds rated AAA, AA, or A that accurately represent the high quality corporate bond market. The HQM methodology projects yields beyond 30 years maturity out to 100 years maturity to get discount rates for long-dated pension liabilities. Visit the Treasury (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/economic-policy/corp-bond-yield/Pages/Corp-Yield-Bond-Curve-Papers.aspx) for more information.

OECD Descriptor ID: IRLTLT01 OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: USA All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission

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The basic type of selected bond is analogous to conventional Treasury coupon issues: a bond that pays a fixed semiannual nominal coupon denominated in U.S. dollars until maturity, when the principal is returned. The HQM yield curve uses data from a set of high quality corporate bonds rated AAA, AA, or A that accurately represent the high quality corporate bond market. For more information see https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/economic-policy/corp-bond-yield/Pages/Corp-Yield-Bond-Curve-Papers.aspx

OECD Descriptor ID: IRLTLT01 OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: GBR All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission

View data of the inflation-adjusted interest rates on 10-year Treasury securities with a constant maturity.

Series is calculated as the spread between 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_10YEARM) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFRM). Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

OECD Descriptor ID: IRLTLT01 OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: IND All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission

Series is calculated as the spread between Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond© (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAA) and 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_10YEARM). ©2017, Moody's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, "Moody's"). All rights reserved. Moody's ratings and other information ("Moody's Information") are proprietary to Moody's and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws. Moody's Information is licensed to Client by Moody's. MOODY'S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

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Series is calculated as the spread between Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond© (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AAA) and 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_10YEAR). ©2017, Moody's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, "Moody's"). All rights reserved. Moody's ratings and other information ("Moody's Information") are proprietary to Moody's and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws. Moody's Information is licensed to Client by Moody's. MOODY'S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

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The Federal Reserve Board has discontinued this series as of October 11, 2016. More information, including possible alternative series, can be found at http://www.federalreserve.gov/feeds/h15.html. Averages of Business Days. Rate paid by fixed-rate payer on an interest rate swap with maturity of ten years. International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA®) mid-market par swap rates. Rates are for a Fixed Rate Payer in return for receiving three month LIBOR, and are based on rates collected at 11:00 a.m. Eastern time by Garban Intercapital plc and published on Reuters Page ISDAFIX®1. ISDAFIX is a registered service mark of ISDA. Source: Reuters Limited.

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This series was constructed by the Bank of England as part of the Three Centuries of Macroeconomic Data project by combining data from a number of academic and official sources. For more information, please refer to the Three Centuries spreadsheet at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/research-datasets. Users are advised to check the underlying assumptions behind this series in the relevant worksheets of the spreadsheet. In many cases alternative assumptions might be appropriate. Users are permitted to reproduce this series in their own work as it represents Bank calculations and manipulations of underlying series that are the copyright of the Bank of England provided that underlying sources are cited appropriately. For appropriate citation please see the Three Centuries spreadsheet for guidance and a list of the underlying sources.

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Averages of daily figures. The Federal Reserve Board has discontinued this series. For more information see the H.15 Statistical Release (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm).

Averages of business days. Based on the unweighted average bid yields for all TIPS with remaining terms to maturity of more than 10 years.

OECD Descriptor ID: IRLTLT01 OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: SVN All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission

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Averages of business days. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal.

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Averages of business days. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Averages of business days. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.