Real potential GDP is the CBO’s estimate of the output the economy would produce with a high rate of use of its capital and labor resources. The data is adjusted to remove the effects of inflation.

BEA Account Code: NA000334

BEA Account Code: ND000334

View the ratio of debt incurred by resident households of the U.S. economy as a percentage of economic output.

BEA Account Code: A006RE For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: DPCERE For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

This index measures the probability that the U.S. economy was in a recession during the indicated quarter. It is based on a mathematical description of the way that recessions differ from expansions. The index corresponds to the probability (measured in percent) that the underlying true economic regime is one of recession based on the available data. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators that may not be released until several years after the event, this index is entirely mechanical, is based solely on currently available GDP data and is reported every quarter. Due to the possibility of data revisions and the challenges in accurately identifying the business cycle phase, the index is calculated for the quarter just preceding the most recently available GDP numbers. Once the index is calculated for that quarter, it is never subsequently revised. The value at every date was inferred using only data that were available one quarter after that date and as those data were reported at the time. If the value of the index rises above 67% that is a historically reliable indicator that the economy has entered a recession. Once this threshold has been passed, if it falls below 33% that is a reliable indicator that the recession is over. For more information about this series visit http://econbrowser.com/recession-index.

The series assigns dates to U.S. recessions based on a mathematical model of the way that recessions differ from expansions. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators, the dates here are entirely mechanical and are calculated solely from historically reported GDP data. Whenever the GDP-based recession indicator index rises above 67%, the economy is determined to be in a recession. The date that the recession is determined to have begun is the first quarter prior to that date for which the inference from the mathematical model using all data available at that date would have been above 50%. The next time the GDP-based recession indicator index falls below 33%, the recession is determined to be over, and the last quarter of the recession is the first quarter for which the inference from the mathematical model using all available data at that date would have been below 50%. For more information about this series visit http://econbrowser.com/recession-index.

BEA Account Code: A822RE For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.

The data for household debt comprise debt incurred by resident households of the economy only. This FSI measures the overall level of household indebtedness (commonly related to consumer loans and mortgages) as a share of GDP. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.

Eurostat unit ID: CLV10_MNAC Eurostat item ID: B1GQ Eurostat country ID: PL Copyright, European Union, http://ec.europa.eu, 1995-2016. Complete terms of use are available at https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm (https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm).

BEA Account Code: A019RE For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.

Eurostat unit ID: CLV10_MNAC Eurostat item ID: B1GQ Eurostat country ID: NL Copyright, European Union, http://ec.europa.eu, 1995-2016. Complete terms of use are available at https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm (https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm).

BEA Account Code: A824RE For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: A011RE For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.

The World Uncertainty Index determines uncertainty using the frequency of the selfsame word in the quarterly Economist Intelligence Unit country reports. Please see Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom and Davide Furceri (2018), 'The World Uncertainty Index' (https://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/WUI_mimeo_10_29.pdf) for additional explanation.

BEA Account Code: B020RE For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

Eurostat unit ID: CLV10_MNAC Eurostat item ID: B1GQ Eurostat country ID: IE Copyright, European Union, http://ec.europa.eu, 1995-2016. Complete terms of use are available at https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm (https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm).

Eurostat unit ID: CLV10_MNAC Eurostat item ID: B1GQ Eurostat country ID: DE Copyright, European Union, http://ec.europa.eu, 1995-2016. Complete terms of use are available at https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm (https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm).

The data for household debt comprise debt incurred by resident households of the economy only. This FSI measures the overall level of household indebtedness (commonly related to consumer loans and mortgages) as a share of GDP. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.

BEA Account Code: M318501 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

Population includes resident population plus armed forces overseas. The annual estimate is constructed as an average of monthly series https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POPTHM. BEA Account Code: B230RC For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

The data for household debt comprise debt incurred by resident households of the economy only. This FSI measures the overall level of household indebtedness (commonly related to consumer loans and mortgages) as a share of GDP. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.

Eurostat unit ID: CLV10_MEUR Eurostat item ID: B1GQ Eurostat country ID: EA19 Euro/ECU series is expressed in euro from January 1, 1999 till present. Prior to December 31, 1998, synthetic exchange rate of the national currency to European Community Unit (ECU) is used to adjust for market exchange rate movements. Copyright, European Union, http://ec.europa.eu, 1995-2016. Complete terms of use are available at https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm (https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm).

Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.

BEA Account Code: NA000349

Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.

BEA Account Code: NA000308

Eurostat unit ID: CP_MNAC Eurostat item ID: B1GQ Eurostat country ID: DE Copyright, European Union, http://ec.europa.eu, 1995-2016. Complete terms of use are available at https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm (https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm).

BEA Account Code: B021RE For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.

Eurostat unit ID: CLV10_MNAC Eurostat item ID: B1GQ Eurostat country ID: UK Copyright, European Union, http://ec.europa.eu, 1995-2016. Complete terms of use are available at https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm (https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm).

Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.

The data for household debt comprise debt incurred by resident households of the economy only. This FSI measures the overall level of household indebtedness (commonly related to consumer loans and mortgages) as a share of GDP. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.

Consists of utilities; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing; professional and business services; educational services, health care, and social assistance; arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services; and other services, except government. Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.

The data for household debt comprise debt incurred by resident households of the economy only. This FSI measures the overall level of household indebtedness (commonly related to consumer loans and mortgages) as a share of GDP. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.

Eurostat unit ID: CLV10_MNAC Eurostat item ID: B1GQ Eurostat country ID: CZ Copyright, European Union, http://ec.europa.eu, 1995-2016. Complete terms of use are available at https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm (https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm).

Eurostat unit ID: CP_MNAC Eurostat item ID: B1GQ Eurostat country ID: EU27_2020 European Union (27 countries from 2020) represents the 2020 reduction in the European Union countries due to the departure of the United Kindom. European Union (27 countries): Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Austria, Finland, Sweden, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia. Copyright, European Union, http://ec.europa.eu, 1995-2016. Complete terms of use are available at https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm (https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm).

Eurostat unit ID: CP_MNAC Eurostat item ID: B1GQ Eurostat country ID: IT Copyright, European Union, http://ec.europa.eu, 1995-2016. Complete terms of use are available at https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm (https://ec.europa.eu/geninfo/legal_notices_en.htm).

BEA Account Code: M318191 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

BEA Account Code: ND000349