Federal Reserve Economic Data

View the average 10-year expectation for the inflation rate among market participants, based upon Treasury securities.

The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_5YEAR) and 5-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_5YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 5 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

View a measure of the average expected inflation over the five-year period that begins five years from the date data are reported.

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The data series is calculated by the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Calculating the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for a given month involves looking at the price changes for each of the individual components of personal consumption expenditures. The individual price changes are sorted in ascending order from “fell the most” to “rose the most,” and a certain fraction of the most extreme observations at both ends of the spectrum are thrown out or trimmed. The inflation rate is then calculated as a weighted average of the remaining components. The trimmed mean inflation rate is a proxy for true core PCE inflation rate. The resulting inflation measure has been shown to outperform the more conventional “excluding food and energy” measure as a gauge of core inflation.

The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 30-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_30YEAR) and 30-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_30YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 30 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

The Sticky Price Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated from a subset of goods and services included in the CPI that change price relatively infrequently. Because these goods and services change price relatively infrequently, they are thought to incorporate expectations about future inflation to a greater degree than prices that change on a more frequent basis. One possible explanation for sticky prices could be the costs firms incur when changing price. To obtain more information about this release see: Michael F. Bryan, and Brent H. Meyer. “Are Some Prices in the CPI More Forward Looking Than Others? We Think So.” Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) (May 19, 2010): 1–6. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201002 (https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201002).

The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 20-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_20YEARM) and 20-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_20YEARM). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 20 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 7-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_7YEARM) and 7-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_7YEARM). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 7 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

View data of the inflation-adjusted interest rates on 10-year Treasury securities with a constant maturity.

Median Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of core inflation calculated the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Ohio State University. Median CPI was created as a different way to get a 'Core CPI' measure, or a better measure of underlying inflation trends. To calculate the Median CPI, the Cleveland Fed analyzes the median price change of the goods and services published by the BLS. The median price change is the price change that's right in the middle of the long list of all of the price changes. This series excludes 49.5% of the CPI components with the highest and lowest one-month price changes from each tail of the price-change distribution resulting in a Median CPI Inflation Estimate. According to research from the Cleveland Fed, the Median CPI provides a better signal of the inflation trend than either the all-items CPI or the CPI excluding food and energy. According to newer research done at the Cleveland Fed, the Median CPI is even better at PCE inflation in the near and longer term than the core PCE. For further information, visit The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/median-cpi#background).

Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 (https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57218), this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment". The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the midpoint of the central tendency forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology). For questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>

The Sticky Price Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated from a subset of goods and services included in the CPI that change price relatively infrequently. Because these goods and services change price relatively infrequently, they are thought to incorporate expectations about future inflation to a greater degree than prices that change on a more frequent basis. One possible explanation for sticky prices could be the costs firms incur when changing price. To obtain more information about this release see: Michael F. Bryan, and Brent H. Meyer. “Are Some Prices in the CPI More Forward Looking Than Others? We Think So.” Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) (May 19, 2010): 1–6. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201002 (https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201002).

data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>

The Sticky Price Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated from a subset of goods and services included in the CPI that change price relatively infrequently. Because these goods and services change price relatively infrequently, they are thought to incorporate expectations about future inflation to a greater degree than prices that change on a more frequent basis. One possible explanation for sticky prices could be the costs firms incur when changing price. To obtain more information about this release see: Michael F. Bryan, and Brent H. Meyer. “Are Some Prices in the CPI More Forward Looking Than Others? We Think So.” Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) (May 19, 2010): 1–6. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201002 (https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201002).

Projections of personal consumption expenditures less food and energy (Core PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Core PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures less food and energy. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the midpoint of the central tendency forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology). For questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>

BEA Account Code: DPCCRV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology). For questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>

This series last appeared in the February, 2021 report: NROU (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NROU)), formerly called "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)." The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

Projections of personal consumption expenditures less food and energy (Core PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Core PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures less food and energy. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the median value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

BEA Account Code: BPCCRO For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Observations for the current and future years are projections. The IMF provides these series as part of their Regional Economic Outlook (REO) reports. These reports discuss recent economic developments and prospects for countries in various regions. They also address economic policy developments that have affected economic performance in their regions and provide country-specific data and analysis. For more information, please see the Regional Economic Outlook (https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo) publications. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available here (http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm).

Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the year. This series represents the median value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

BEA Account Code: DPCCRV For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

16% Trimmed-Mean Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. The Trimmed-Mean CPI excludes the CPI components that show the most extreme monthly price changes. This series excludes 8% of the CPI components with the highest and lowest one-month price changes from each tail of the price-change distribution resulting in a 16% Trimmed-Mean Inflation Estimate. For further information, visit The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/median-cpi#background).

The Flexible Price Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated from a subset of goods and services included in the CPI that change price relatively frequently. Because flexible prices are quick to change, it assumes that when these prices are set, they incorporate less of an expectation about future inflation. Evidence suggests that this flexible price measure is more responsive to changes in the current economic environment or the level of economic slack. To obtain more information about this release see: Michael F. Bryan, and Brent H. Meyer. “Are Some Prices in the CPI More Forward Looking Than Others? We Think So.” Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) (May 19, 2010): 1–6. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201002 (https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201002).

The Sticky Price Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated from a subset of goods and services included in the CPI that change price relatively infrequently. Because these goods and services change price relatively infrequently, they are thought to incorporate expectations about future inflation to a greater degree than prices that change on a more frequent basis. One possible explanation for sticky prices could be the costs firms incur when changing price. To obtain more information about this release see: Michael F. Bryan, and Brent H. Meyer. “Are Some Prices in the CPI More Forward Looking Than Others? We Think So.” Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) (May 19, 2010): 1–6. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201002 (https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201002).

H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology). For questions on the data, please contact the data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Observations for the current and future years are projections. The IMF provides these series as part of their Regional Economic Outlook (REO) reports. These reports discuss recent economic developments and prospects for countries in various regions. They also address economic policy developments that have affected economic performance in their regions and provide country-specific data and analysis. For more information, please see the Regional Economic Outlook (https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo) publications. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available here (http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm).

OECD Descriptor ID: CPALTT01 OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: USA All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission

BEA Account Code: DPCCRAM A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

The Flexible Price Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated from a subset of goods and services included in the CPI that change price relatively frequently. Because flexible prices are quick to change, it assumes that when these prices are set, they incorporate less of an expectation about future inflation. Evidence suggests that this flexible price measure is more responsive to changes in the current economic environment or the level of economic slack. To obtain more information about this release see: Michael F. Bryan, and Brent H. Meyer. “Are Some Prices in the CPI More Forward Looking Than Others? We Think So.” Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) (May 19, 2010): 1–6. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201002 (https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201002).

Observations for the current and future years are projections. The IMF provides these series as part of their Regional Economic Outlook (REO) reports. These reports discuss recent economic developments and prospects for countries in various regions. They also address economic policy developments that have affected economic performance in their regions and provide country-specific data and analysis. For more information, please see the Regional Economic Outlook (https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo) publications. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available here (http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm).

Projections of personal consumption expenditures less food and energy (Core PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Core PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures less food and energy. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the high value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

OECD Descriptor ID: CPALTT01 OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: CHN All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Observations for the current and future years are projections. The IMF provides these series as part of their Regional Economic Outlook (REO) reports. These reports discuss recent economic developments and prospects for countries in various regions. They also address economic policy developments that have affected economic performance in their regions and provide country-specific data and analysis. For more information, please see the Regional Economic Outlook (https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo) publications. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available here (http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm).

OECD Descriptor ID: CPALTT01 OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: ARG All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission

OECD Descriptor ID: CPGRLE01 OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: USA All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Observations for the current and future years are projections. The IMF provides these series as part of their Regional Economic Outlook (REO) reports. These reports discuss recent economic developments and prospects for countries in various regions. They also address economic policy developments that have affected economic performance in their regions and provide country-specific data and analysis. For more information, please see the Regional Economic Outlook (https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo) publications. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available here (http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm).

OECD descriptor ID: CPHPLA01 OECD unit ID: GP OECD country ID: EA19All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD,"Main Economic Indicators - complete database"Main Economic Indicators(database)http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en(Accessed on date)Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission.

Observations for the current and future years are projections. The IMF provides these series as part of their Regional Economic Outlook (REO) reports. These reports discuss recent economic developments and prospects for countries in various regions. They also address economic policy developments that have affected economic performance in their regions and provide country-specific data and analysis. For more information, please see the Regional Economic Outlook (https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo) publications. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available here (http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm).

Observations for the current and future years are projections. The IMF provides these series as part of their Regional Economic Outlook (REO) reports. These reports discuss recent economic developments and prospects for countries in various regions. They also address economic policy developments that have affected economic performance in their regions and provide country-specific data and analysis. For more information, please see the Regional Economic Outlook (https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo) publications. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available here (http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm).

Source: Bls Release, "Consumer Price Index-U.S.": All Items, 1913- 1960, Series A; Bcd, February, 1967 For 1961-1965; March, 1968 For 1966-February, 1968. This NBER data series m04220 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 4 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter04.html. NBER Indicator: m04220

Observations for the current and future years are projections. The IMF provides these series as part of their Regional Economic Outlook (REO) reports. These reports discuss recent economic developments and prospects for countries in various regions. They also address economic policy developments that have affected economic performance in their regions and provide country-specific data and analysis. For more information, please see the Regional Economic Outlook (https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo) publications. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available here (http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm).

BEA Account Code: DPCCRGM A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

Observations for the current and future years are projections. The IMF provides these series as part of their Regional Economic Outlook (REO) reports. These reports discuss recent economic developments and prospects for countries in various regions. They also address economic policy developments that have affected economic performance in their regions and provide country-specific data and analysis. For more information, please see the Regional Economic Outlook (https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo) publications. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available here (http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm).

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

OECD descriptor ID: CPHPTT01 OECD unit ID: GY OECD country ID: EA17 All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database),http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission.

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: USA MEASURE: CPI UNIT_MEASURE: PA METHODOLOGY: N EXPENDITURE: _T ADJUSTMENT: N TRANSFORMATION: GY FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Descriptor ID: CPGRLE01 OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: JPN All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission

The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, unemployment, and federal funds rate to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the year. This series represents the median value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.