Federal Reserve Economic Data: Your trusted data source since 1991

  • Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2003-01-02 to 2024-04-22 (14 hours ago)

    View the average 10-year expectation for the inflation rate among market participants, based upon Treasury securities.

  • Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2003-01-02 to 2024-04-22 (14 hours ago)

    The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_5YEAR) and 5-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_5YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 5 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

  • Percent, Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2003-01-02 to 2024-04-22 (14 hours ago)

    View a measure of the average expected inflation over the five-year period that begins five years from the date data are reported.

  • Percent, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted Feb 2010 to Mar 2024 (Mar 29)

    The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 30-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_30YEAR) and 30-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_30YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 30 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

  • Percent, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted Jul 2004 to Mar 2024 (Mar 29)

    The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 20-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_20YEARM) and 20-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_20YEARM). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 20 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

  • Percent, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted Jan 2003 to Mar 2024 (Mar 29)

    The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 7-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_7YEARM) and 7-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_7YEARM). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 7 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures less food and energy (Core PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Core PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures less food and energy. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the midpoint of the central tendency forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the midpoint of the central tendency forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures less food and energy (Core PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Core PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures less food and energy. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the median value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Probability, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted Jan 1990 to Mar 2024 (Apr 1)

    This series measures the probability that the expected personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month percent changes) over the next 12 months will exceed 2.5 percent. For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2015/11/06/introducing-the-st-louis-fed-price-pressures-measure/). As of April 5, 2023, the MZM Money Stock measure, in SA billions of dollars, has been replaced with the series Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding (break-adjusted), in SA billions of dollars, from the Federal Reserve’s monthly G.19 release. This change was made because the MZM series was discontinued. As of February 3, 2020, the Emerging and Developing Asia and Western Hemisphere Consumer Prices Indexes have been replaced with Asia/Pacific Rim and Latin America Consumer Price Indexes respectively. These changes were made to facilitate a more timely updating of the PPM. Switching the Consumer Prices Indexes produced no meaningful change in the PPM series. As of January 29, 2021, the Adjusted Monetary Base (including Deposits to Satisfy Clearing Balance Contracts) Seasonally Adjusted, in billions of dollars has been replaced with the series, Monetary Base, NSA, in billions of dollars.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the year. This series represents the median value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Probability, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted Jan 1990 to Mar 2024 (Apr 1)

    This series measures the probability that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month changes) over the next 12 months will fall below zero. For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2015/11/06/introducing-the-st-louis-fed-price-pressures-measure/). As of April 5, 2023, the MZM Money Stock measure, in SA billions of dollars, has been replaced with the series Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding (break-adjusted), in SA billions of dollars, from the Federal Reserve’s monthly G.19 release. This change was made because the MZM series was discontinued. As of February 3, 2020, the Emerging and Developing Asia and Western Hemisphere Consumer Prices Indexes have been replaced with Asia/Pacific Rim and Latin America Consumer Price Indexes respectively. These changes were made to facilitate a more timely updating of the PPM. Switching the Consumer Prices Indexes produced no meaningful change in the PPM series. As of January 29, 2021, the Adjusted Monetary Base (including Deposits to Satisfy Clearing Balance Contracts) Seasonally Adjusted, in billions of dollars has been replaced with the series, Monetary Base, NSA, in billions of dollars.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures less food and energy (Core PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Core PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures less food and energy. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the high value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Probability, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted Jan 1990 to Mar 2024 (Apr 1)

    This series measures the probability that the expected personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month percent changes) over the next 12 months will range between 0 and 1.5 percent. For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2015/11/06/introducing-the-st-louis-fed-price-pressures-measure/). As of April 5, 2023, the MZM Money Stock measure, in SA billions of dollars, has been replaced with the series Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding (break-adjusted), in SA billions of dollars, from the Federal Reserve’s monthly G.19 release. This change was made because the MZM series was discontinued. As of February 3, 2020, the Emerging and Developing Asia and Western Hemisphere Consumer Prices Indexes have been replaced with Asia/Pacific Rim and Latin America Consumer Price Indexes respectively. These changes were made to facilitate a more timely updating of the PPM. Switching the Consumer Prices Indexes produced no meaningful change in the PPM series. As of January 29, 2021, the Adjusted Monetary Base (including Deposits to Satisfy Clearing Balance Contracts) Seasonally Adjusted, in billions of dollars has been replaced with the series, Monetary Base, NSA, in billions of dollars.

  • Probability, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted Jan 1990 to Mar 2024 (Apr 1)

    This series measures the probability that the expected personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month percent changes) over the next 12 months will range between 1.5 and 2.5 percent. For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2015/11/06/introducing-the-st-louis-fed-price-pressures-measure/). As of April 5, 2023, the MZM Money Stock measure, in SA billions of dollars, has been replaced with the series Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding (break-adjusted), in SA billions of dollars, from the Federal Reserve’s monthly G.19 release. This change was made because the MZM series was discontinued. As of February 3, 2020, the Emerging and Developing Asia and Western Hemisphere Consumer Prices Indexes have been replaced with Asia/Pacific Rim and Latin America Consumer Price Indexes respectively. These changes were made to facilitate a more timely updating of the PPM. Switching the Consumer Prices Indexes produced no meaningful change in the PPM series. As of January 29, 2021, the Adjusted Monetary Base (including Deposits to Satisfy Clearing Balance Contracts) Seasonally Adjusted, in billions of dollars has been replaced with the series, Monetary Base, NSA, in billions of dollars.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Not Applicable, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2015-06-17 to 2024-03-20 (Mar 20)

    The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, unemployment, and federal funds rate to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the year. This series represents the median value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Not Applicable, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2009-02-18 to 2024-03-20 (Mar 20)

    The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the midpoint of the central tendency forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 1999-04-09 to 2020-08-07 (2020-08-10)

    This series will no longer be updated. It has been replaced with DTP30A29 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=uHPi) that updates on a daily basis. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Weekly average of daily data calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Not Applicable, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2009-02-18 to 2024-03-20 (Mar 20)

    The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth-quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. The PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents low value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 1998-04-17 to 2020-08-07 (2020-08-10)

    This series will no longer be updated. It has been replaced with DTP30A28 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=uHPc) that updates on a daily basis. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Weekly average of daily data calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 1999-01-15 to 2009-01-09 (2009-01-12)

    Averages of business days. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures less food and energy (Core PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Core PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures less food and energy. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the low value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the low value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 1997-02-07 to 2007-01-05 (2007-01-08)

    Averages of business days. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures less food and energy (Core PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Core PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures less food and energy. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the high value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures less food and energy (Core PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Core PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures less food and energy. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the low value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 1998-01-16 to 2008-01-11 (2008-01-14)

    Averages of business days. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2006-01-20 to 2016-01-15 (2016-01-19)

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2010-01-08 to 2020-08-07 (2020-08-10)

    This series will no longer be updated. It has been replaced with DTP20J26 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=uHP2) that updates on a daily basis. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Weekly average of daily data calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the year. This series represents the low value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2001-10-19 to 2020-08-07 (2020-08-10)

    This series will no longer be updated. It has been replaced with DTP3HA32 ('https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=uHQ6) that updates on a daily basis. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Weekly average of daily data calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth-quarter growth rates, hat is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. The PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the high value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Not Applicable, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2009-02-18 to 2024-03-20 (Mar 20)

    The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the year. This series represents the low value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 1997-07-18 to 2002-02-15 (2006-07-27)

    Averages of business days. Calculated from data provided by the New York Times. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2011-01-28 to 2020-08-07 (2020-08-10)

    This series will no longer be updated. It has been replaced with DTP10J21 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=uHPR) that updates on a daily basis. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Weekly average of daily data calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2010-07-09 to 2020-07-10 (2020-07-13)

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Weekly average of daily data calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2002-08-09 to 2012-07-13 (2012-07-16)

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2004-07-23 to 2014-07-11 (2014-07-14)

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures less food and energy (Core PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Core PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures less food and energy. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the midpoint of the range forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2009-01-16 to 2019-01-11 (2019-01-14)

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2005-07-29 to 2015-07-17 (2016-01-19)

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2004-10-29 to 2010-04-09 (2010-04-14)

    Averages of business days. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2004-01-16 to 2014-01-17 (2014-01-21)

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2007-05-04 to 2012-04-13 (2012-04-16)

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2008-05-02 to 2013-04-12 (2013-04-15)

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2010-01-15 to 2020-01-17 (2020-01-20)

    Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Weekly average of daily data calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2005-01-21 to 2015-01-16 (2015-01-26)

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2007-01-19 to 2017-01-13 (2017-01-17)

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2008-01-18 to 2018-01-12 (2018-01-16)

    Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Average of business days. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2003-07-25 to 2013-07-12 (2013-07-15)

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2006-07-21 to 2016-07-15 (2016-07-18)

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Daily data prior to August 2, 2006, were provided by the New York Times. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2007-07-20 to 2017-07-14 (2017-07-17)

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2008-07-25 to 2018-07-13 (2018-07-16)

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2009-07-10 to 2019-07-12 (2019-07-15)

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Weekly average of daily data calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2011-02-25 to 2020-08-07 (2020-08-10)

    This series will no longer be updated. It has been replaced with DTP30F41 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=uHQ5) that updates on a daily basis. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Weekly average of daily data calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2006-04-28 to 2011-04-15 (2011-04-25)

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2000-01-21 to 2010-01-15 (2010-02-01)

    Averages of business days. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2001-01-19 to 2011-01-14 (2011-01-18)

    Averages of business days. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2002-01-18 to 2012-01-13 (2012-01-17)

    Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2004-07-30 to 2020-08-07 (2020-08-10)

    This series will no longer be updated. It has been replaced with DTP20J25 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=uHOS) that updates on a daily basis. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Weekly average of daily data calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal.


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