View the spread between 10-Year and 3-month Treasury Constant Maturities, which is used to predict recession probabilities.
Series is calculated as the spread between 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_10YEAR) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR). Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).
View the average 10-year expectation for the inflation rate among market participants, based upon Treasury securities.
Series is calculated as the spread between 1-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_1YEAR) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF). Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).
Series is calculated as the spread between 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_3MONTH) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR). Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).
Series is calculated as the spread between 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_5YEAR) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR). Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).
The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_5YEAR) and 5-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_5YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 5 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).
View a measure of the average expected inflation over the five-year period that begins five years from the date data are reported.
Series is calculated as the spread between 6-Month Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_6MONTH) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR). Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).
The Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) is the interest rate applied to bank transactions in the British Sterling Market during off hours. For more information please visit the Bank of England's explication on the key features and policies of SONIA. (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/details/further-details-about-wholesale-interbank-sterling-market-data/)
The Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) is the interest rate applied to bank transactions in the British Sterling Market during off hours. This series represents the SONIA rate occurring at the 10th percentile of volume. For more information, please visit the Bank of England's explication on the key features and policies of SONIA. (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/details/further-details-about-wholesale-interbank-sterling-market-data/)
The Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) is the interest rate applied to bank transactions in the British Sterling Market during off hours. This series represents the SONIA rate occurring at the 25th percentile of volume. For more information, please visit the Bank of England's explication on the key features and policies of SONIA. (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/details/further-details-about-wholesale-interbank-sterling-market-data/)
The Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) is the interest rate applied to bank transactions in the British Sterling Market during off hours. This series represents the SONIA rate occurring at the 75th percentile of volume. For more information, please visit the Bank of England's explication on the key features and policies of SONIA. (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/details/further-details-about-wholesale-interbank-sterling-market-data/)
The Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) is the interest rate applied to bank transactions in the British Sterling Market during off hours. This series represents the SONIA rate occurring at the 90th percentile of volume. For more information, please visit the Bank of England's explication on the key features and policies of SONIA. (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/details/further-details-about-wholesale-interbank-sterling-market-data/)
The Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) is the interest rate applied to bank transactions in the British Sterling Market during off hours. This series represents the aggregate volume of transactions. For more information, please visit the Bank of England's explication on the key features and policies of SONIA. (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/details/further-details-about-wholesale-interbank-sterling-market-data/)
The Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) is the interest rate applied to bank transactions in the British Sterling Market during off hours. For more information, please visit the Bank of England's explication on the key features and policies of SONIA. (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/details/further-details-about-wholesale-interbank-sterling-market-data/)
OECD Descriptor ID: LOCOSTNO OECD unit ID: IDX OECD country ID: IND All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission
OECD Descriptor ID: LOCOSTOR OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: IDN All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available from the IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm).
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
Notes regarding this series can be found in International Financial Statistics Yearbooks produced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). We have requested these publications from the IMF. Notes on this series will populate once they become available. Copyright © 2016, International Monetary Fund. Reprinted with permission. Complete terms of use and contact details are available at http://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
The Rate Shown For Each Month Is The Average Of The Loan Rates Of The Twelve Banks, No Weight Being Given To The Number Of Loans Closed At The Various Rates. When A Change Of Rate Occurred During A Month, The Bank'S Average Rates For That Month Was Obtained By Weighting By The Number Of Business Days It Was In Force. Source: Data For 1917-1934: Letter From The Farm Credit Administration, Washington, D.C., January 4, 1935. Data For 1935-1944: U.S. Department Of Commerce, Survey Of Current Business, 1938 Annual Supplement, P. 56, 1940, P. 56, And Successive Issues. This NBER data series m13008 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13008
Data Are Adjusted For Economic Drift. Source: F.R. Macaulay, The Movement Of Interest Rates, Bond Yields, And Stock Prices In The United States Since 1856 (NBER, 1938), Appendix Table 10, Pp. A142-A161. This NBER data series m13019 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13019
Source: Standard And Poor'S Corporation, Data For 1900-1928: Standard Statistics Co., Base Book; Standard Statistical Bulletin, January 1932, P. 125. Data For 1929-1967: Computed By NBER By Taking A Simple Average Of Four Series, All Based On Standard And Poor'S Data -- Series 13023 (Municipal Bonds); Series 13024 (Railroad Bonds); Series 13025 (Public Utilities); Series 13026 (Industrial Bonds). This NBER data series m13021 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13021
Source: Dow Jones This NBER data series m13022 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13022
An Arithmetic Average Of The Yield To Maturity On Each Issue Is Based On The Mean Of Monthly High And Low Prices. Beginning January 3, 1929, The Average Yield Is Computed From Thursday'S Closing Prices, The Monthly Index Consisting Of An Average Of The Four Or Five Weekly Indexes For The Month. Beginning April 30, 1930, Wednesday'S Closing Prices Are Used And The Average For The Month Is Taken As Before. Source: Standard And Poor'S Corporation, Data For 1900-1940: "Long Term Security Price Index Record (Through December 31, 1940)", Pp. 137-138. Data For 1941-1942: "Security Price Index Record: 1941 & 1942", P. 16. Data For 1943-1951: "Security Price Index Record", 1952 Edition, P. 175 (Also See 1957 Edition And 1959 Supplement To 1957 Edition). Data For 1952-1967: Current Statistics, July 1952, And Following Monthly Issues. This NBER data series m13023 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13023
Data For 1900-1928 Are Based Upon The Mean Of The Monthly High And Low Price Of Five High Grade Bonds. Data For 1929-1937 Are Based Upon A Varying Group Of A1+ Bonds, One Price Monthly Being Used. Data Beginning April 1937 Are Based On The Average Of The Four Or Five Weekly A1+ Indexes. The Yield To Maturity Has Been Used. Missing Data For August-October 1914 Is Due To The Stock Exchange Closing. Source: Standard And Poor'S, Data For 1900-1946: "Long Term Security Price Index Record (Through December 31, 1940)", P. 128;"Security Price Record: 1941 And 1943", P. 13;"Current Statistics Combined With Basic Statistics", 1944-1946. Data For 1947: "Statistics: Security Price Index Record", 1948 Edition, P. 134. Data For 1948-1950: "Current Statistics Combined With Basic Statistics", January Issues Of 1949-1950. Data For 1951-1963: "Current Statistics", February 1952 And Successive Issues. This NBER data series m13024 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13024
Data For 1900-1928 Are Based Upon The Mean Of The Monthly High And Low Price Of Five High Grade Bonds. Data For 1929-1937 Are Based Upon A Varying Group Of A1+ Bonds, One Price Monthly Being Used. Data Beginning April 1937 Are Based On The Average Of The Four Or Five Weekly A1+ Indexes. The Yield To Maturity Has Been Used. Missing Data For August-October 1914 Is Due To The Stock Exchange Closing. Source: Standard And Poor'S, Data For 1900-1946: "Long Term Security Price Index Record (Through December 31, 1940)", P. 128;"Security Price Record: 1941 And 1943", P. 13;"Current Statistics Combined With Basic Statistics", 1944-1946. Data For 1947: "Statistics: Security Price Index Record", 1948 Edition, P. 134. Data For 1948-1950: "Current Statistics Combined With Basic Statistics", January Issues Of 1949-1950. Data For 1951-1963: "Current Statistics", February 1952 And Successive Issues. This NBER data series m13025 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13025
From January 1900-December 1928, These Indexes Are Based Upon The Mean Of The Monthly High-Low Price Of Forty-Five High Grade Corporate Bonds. From January 1929-March 1937 The Indexes Have Been Based Upon A Varying Group Of Aaa Bonds, One Price Monthly (First Of Month) Being Used. Beginning April 1937 To Date The Average Is Of The Four Or Five Weekly Aaa Indexes. The Lack Of Data For August-November 1914 Is Due To The Stock Exchange Being Closed. Source: Standard And Poor'S, Data For 1900-1942: Security Price Index Record. Data For 1943-1972: Current Statistics Combined With Basic Statistics; Also Trade And Securities. This NBER data series m13026 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13026
According To The 1928 Journal De La Societe De Statistique, In 1913 The Average Net Yield Equalled 3.78% For A Portfolio Of 180 Securities Of Varying Return. Starting From This Yield And Using The Monthly Index Of Security Prices And Earnings On The Base 1913=100, The Net Yield For Each Month Of The Period Examined Was Calculated. Data For 1932-1935 Are Listed In The Source Under "France. Banque; Valeurs..." On The Second Page Of Each Bulletin, Under The General Heading "Indices Economiques". Source: Statistique Generale, Data For 1898-1914: Jean Dessirier In Journal De La Societe De Statistique De Paris, February 1929, Pp. 80-83. Data For 1919-1931: Indices Generaux Du Movement Economique En France De 1901 A 1931, Pp. 143-145, 160. Data For 1932-1939: Bulletin De La Statistique Generale. This NBER data series m13027 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13027
Data Refer To Aaa Grade Bonds. Data Were Checked In Part With Annual Averages, In Federal Reserve Bulletins, Annual Reports Of The Federal Reserve Board, And Moody'S Industrials. The Survey Of Current Business Is The Only Source That Publishes The Series In Its Entirety; Moody'S Bond Survey Publishes Only The Daily Data From Which The Monthly Series Is Made Up. Data For 1919-1941 Can Also Be Found In The Federal Reserve Board'S "Banking And Monetary Statistics", 1943. Source: U.S. Department Of Commerce, Survey Of Current Business, November 1937, P. 19 And Successive Issues. This NBER data series m13035 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13035
Data Refer To Baa Grade Bonds. Data Were Checked In Part With Annual Averages In Federal Reserve Bulletins, Annual Reports Of The Federal Reserve Board, And Moody'S Industrials. The Survey Of Current Business Is The Only Source That Publishes The Series In Its Entirety. Moody'S Bond Survey Publishes Only The Daily Figures From Which The Monthly Series Is Made Up. Moody'S Is The Original Collecter Of The Data. Source: U.S Department Of Commerce, Survey Of Current Business, November 1937, P. 19 And Following Issues. This NBER data series m13036 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13036
Data Refer To Aaa Grade Bonds. Data Through 1962 Include: Hartford, Connecticut -- 18 Year 3.5% Bonds; Indianapolis, Indiana -- 25 Year 3.625% Bonds; Maryland -- 14 Year 3% Bonds; Milwaukee, Wisconsin -- 20 Year 3% Bonds; New York State -- 25 Year 3% Bonds (See Moody'S, July 16, 1962). Source: Moody'S Municipal And Investment Manual, 1961; Successives Issues Of Moody'S Bond Survey Thereafter. This NBER data series m13043 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13043
Data Are For Newly Issued Yields Which Are Averages Of Offering Yields On New Issues (Other Than Convertibles, Issues With Warrants And Equipment Trusts) Weighted By Amounts Offered. No Offerings Were Given For The Missing Months. Source: Moody'S Bond Survey, February 9, 1959 And First Issue Of Each Month Thereafter. This NBER data series m13044 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13044
Data Through June 1961 Are Based On 25 Year Mortgages Prepaid In 12 Years; Data For July 1961-1965 Are Based On 30 Year Mortgages Prepaid In 15 Years. Source: U.S. Department Of Commerce, Business Condition Digest. This NBER data series m13045 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13045
Data For August-November 1914 Was Straight Line Interpolated Since The Exchange Was Closed. Source: Standard And Poor'S, Trade And Securities Statistics: Security Price Index Record, 1964; Current Statistics, March 1964. This NBER data series m13048 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13048
Data Are For Monthly Averages Of The Weekly Yields Index Given In "The Weekly Bond Buyer For The Capital Market Investor", Published By The Bond Buyer, New York City. Source: U.S. Bureau Of The Census, Business Cycle Developments, July 1964 And Subsequent Issues. This NBER data series m13050 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13050
Series Covers Only Selected Notes And Bonds. Source: Federal Reserve Bulletin This NBER data series m13057 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13057
Source: Morgan Guaranty Trust Company This NBER data series m13058 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13058
Data Refer To Aaa Grade Bonds. Source: Moody'S Industrial Manual, 1965 And Successive Issues Of Moody'S Bond Survey, Weekly Publication. This NBER data series m13059 appears on the NBER website in Chapter 13 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter13.html. NBER Indicator: m13059