This index measures the probability that the U.S. economy was in a recession during the indicated quarter. It is based on a mathematical description of the way that recessions differ from expansions. The index corresponds to the probability (measured in percent) that the underlying true economic regime is one of recession based on the available data. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators that may not be released until several years after the event, this index is entirely mechanical, is based solely on currently available GDP data and is reported every quarter. Due to the possibility of data revisions and the challenges in accurately identifying the business cycle phase, the index is calculated for the quarter just preceding the most recently available GDP numbers. Once the index is calculated for that quarter, it is never subsequently revised. The value at every date was inferred using only data that were available one quarter after that date and as those data were reported at the time. If the value of the index rises above 67% that is a historically reliable indicator that the economy has entered a recession. Once this threshold has been passed, if it falls below 33% that is a reliable indicator that the recession is over. For more information about this series visit http://econbrowser.com/recession-index.
Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.
BEA Account Code: DPCERY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A014RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A822RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A019RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A006RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A011RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: Y033RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DSERRY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A008RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: Y001RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DDURRY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DGDSRY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A823RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A007RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A829RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DNDGRY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A824RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A009RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Change of Inventory Investment represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Change of Inventory Investment provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.
BEA Account Code: A825RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DHUTRY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DPCERY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A020RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.
The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Structures represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Structures provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.
Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.
BEA Account Code: A822RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Equipment represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Equipment provides to real GDP growth. For any forecasts occurring on or before the second quarter of 2013, the Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Equipment was actually Equipment and Software. Currently, Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Equipment excludes Software. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.
The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Goods represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Goods provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.
Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.
Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.
Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.
Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.
BEA Account Code: W665RZ For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: W650RZ For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: W040RW For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: W038RW For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: C320RW For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B935RW For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A253RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A006RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.
Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.
Value added represents the sum of the costs-incurred and the incomes-earned in production, and consists of compensation of employees, taxes on production and imports, less subsidies, and gross operating surplus.
The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Imports of Goods represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Imports of Goods provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.
The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Change of Net Exports of Goods and Services represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Change of Net Exports of Goods and Services provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.
The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.
The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Final Sales of Domestic Product represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Final Sales of Domestic Product provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.
The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Intellectual Property Products represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Intellectual Property Products provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.
The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Personal Consumption Expenditures provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.
The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Services represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Services provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.
BEA Account Code: A015RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: C307RZ For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A021RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B009RW For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A019RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A021RY For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A788RZ For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.