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  • Percent, Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 (https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57218), this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment". The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

  • Percent, Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    This series last appeared in the February, 2021 report: NROU (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NROU)), formerly called "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)." The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

  • Percent, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the median value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter, Percent, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the midpoint of the central tendency forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter, Percent, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the high value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter, Percent, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the midpoint of the range forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter, Percent, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the high value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter, Percent, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the low value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter, Percent, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the low value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Number, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Number, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

  • Percent, Weekly, Not Seasonally Adjusted

    The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.


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