Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 (https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57218), this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment". The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

This series last appeared in the February, 2021 report: NROU (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NROU)), formerly called "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)." The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

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Series Is Presented Here As Three Variables--(1)--Seasonally Adjusted, 1929-1942 (2)--Seasonally Adjusted, 1940-1946 (3)--Original Data, 1947-1966. Data Are Unemployment Expressed As A Percentage Of The Civilian Labor Force. Source: United States Bureau Of The Census, Current Population Reports: Labor Force Series P-50, Nos. 2, 13, And 19 (1940-1946, 1947-1948, And 1949 Annual Reports). Data Were Derived From NBER Series On Unemployment And Civilian Labor Force. This NBER data series q08292b appears on the NBER website in Chapter 8 at http://www.nber.org/databases/macrohistory/contents/chapter08.html. NBER Indicator: q08292b

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U-6 unemployment rate, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS). The BLS defines marginally attached workers as persons who are not in the labor force, want and are available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They are not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the prior 4 weeks, for any reason whatsoever. The marginally attached are a group that includes discouraged workers. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those working less than 35 hours per week who want to work full time, are available to do so, and gave an economic reason (their hours had been cut back or they were unable to find a full time job) for working part time. These individuals are sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers.

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U-6 unemployment rate, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS). The BLS defines marginally attached workers as persons who are not in the labor force, want and are available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They are not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the prior 4 weeks, for any reason whatsoever. The marginally attached are a group that includes discouraged workers. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those working less than 35 hours per week who want to work full time, are available to do so, and gave an economic reason (their hours had been cut back or they were unable to find a full time job) for working part time. These individuals are sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers.

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BEA Account Code: W825RC For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

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U-1 unemployment rate, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

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