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Recession Probabilities

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Not Seasonally Adjusted

Popularity
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Popularity
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Seas Adj

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Percent, Monthly, Not Seasonally AdjustedJun 1967 to Mar 2026 (May 1)

Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator

+1 or 0, Quarterly, Not Seasonally AdjustedQ4 1967 to Q4 2025 (Apr 30)

GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index

Percentage Points, Quarterly, Not Seasonally AdjustedQ4 1967 to Q4 2025 (Apr 30)

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for Russia

Index, Monthly, Not Seasonally AdjustedJan 1994 to Apr 2026 (May 5)

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for South Korea (DISCONTINUED)

Index, Monthly, Not Seasonally AdjustedJan 1990 to Dec 2014 (2016-02-11)

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