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Recession Probabilities

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Quarterly

Popularity
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Popularity
Updated
Obs End
Obs Start
Title
Frequency
Units
Seas Adj

Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator

+1 or 0, Quarterly, Not Seasonally AdjustedQ4 1967 to Q4 2025 (Apr 30)

GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index

Percentage Points, Quarterly, Not Seasonally AdjustedQ4 1967 to Q4 2025 (Apr 30)

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