Title: Leading Index for Arizona Series ID: AZSLIND Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Release: State Leading Indexes Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly Units: Percent Date Range: 1982-01-01 to 2016-08-01 Last Updated: 2016-09-30 10:06 AM CDT Notes: The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state's coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill. DATE VALUE 1982-01-01 -1.84 1982-02-01 -1.98 1982-03-01 -1.45 1982-04-01 -1.09 1982-05-01 -1.40 1982-06-01 -1.51 1982-07-01 -0.75 1982-08-01 -0.48 1982-09-01 0.74 1982-10-01 1.46 1982-11-01 2.83 1982-12-01 3.14 1983-01-01 4.19 1983-02-01 4.95 1983-03-01 5.69 1983-04-01 5.96 1983-05-01 6.28 1983-06-01 6.62 1983-07-01 6.64 1983-08-01 7.05 1983-09-01 6.95 1983-10-01 6.99 1983-11-01 6.92 1983-12-01 6.53 1984-01-01 6.46 1984-02-01 5.99 1984-03-01 6.15 1984-04-01 5.61 1984-05-01 5.89 1984-06-01 6.11 1984-07-01 5.65 1984-08-01 5.60 1984-09-01 4.85 1984-10-01 4.65 1984-11-01 5.04 1984-12-01 5.02 1985-01-01 5.47 1985-02-01 5.22 1985-03-01 5.70 1985-04-01 4.95 1985-05-01 4.84 1985-06-01 4.42 1985-07-01 4.25 1985-08-01 4.55 1985-09-01 4.22 1985-10-01 4.82 1985-11-01 4.47 1985-12-01 4.16 1986-01-01 3.27 1986-02-01 2.57 1986-03-01 2.50 1986-04-01 3.15 1986-05-01 2.87 1986-06-01 2.86 1986-07-01 2.72 1986-08-01 3.06 1986-09-01 2.65 1986-10-01 1.85 1986-11-01 1.62 1986-12-01 1.93 1987-01-01 2.33 1987-02-01 2.35 1987-03-01 2.14 1987-04-01 2.68 1987-05-01 2.76 1987-06-01 2.88 1987-07-01 2.14 1987-08-01 1.96 1987-09-01 1.93 1987-10-01 1.94 1987-11-01 1.65 1987-12-01 1.83 1988-01-01 1.25 1988-02-01 0.83 1988-03-01 1.20 1988-04-01 1.01 1988-05-01 1.53 1988-06-01 1.46 1988-07-01 2.08 1988-08-01 1.72 1988-09-01 1.18 1988-10-01 1.05 1988-11-01 1.18 1988-12-01 0.88 1989-01-01 1.01 1989-02-01 1.03 1989-03-01 1.28 1989-04-01 1.02 1989-05-01 0.14 1989-06-01 -0.21 1989-07-01 0.04 1989-08-01 0.94 1989-09-01 1.45 1989-10-01 1.62 1989-11-01 1.55 1989-12-01 1.20 1990-01-01 0.61 1990-02-01 0.15 1990-03-01 -0.11 1990-04-01 0.44 1990-05-01 1.06 1990-06-01 0.63 1990-07-01 0.09 1990-08-01 -0.21 1990-09-01 0.45 1990-10-01 0.25 1990-11-01 -0.28 1990-12-01 -0.03 1991-01-01 0.28 1991-02-01 0.35 1991-03-01 0.35 1991-04-01 0.43 1991-05-01 0.47 1991-06-01 0.72 1991-07-01 1.08 1991-08-01 0.90 1991-09-01 0.80 1991-10-01 0.94 1991-11-01 0.94 1991-12-01 1.32 1992-01-01 1.37 1992-02-01 1.96 1992-03-01 2.02 1992-04-01 2.56 1992-05-01 2.76 1992-06-01 3.31 1992-07-01 3.16 1992-08-01 2.83 1992-09-01 3.25 1992-10-01 3.16 1992-11-01 2.88 1992-12-01 2.85 1993-01-01 2.45 1993-02-01 3.37 1993-03-01 3.26 1993-04-01 4.37 1993-05-01 3.93 1993-06-01 4.68 1993-07-01 4.72 1993-08-01 4.70 1993-09-01 4.34 1993-10-01 4.01 1993-11-01 4.55 1993-12-01 5.04 1994-01-01 4.68 1994-02-01 4.97 1994-03-01 5.13 1994-04-01 5.11 1994-05-01 4.39 1994-06-01 4.21 1994-07-01 4.23 1994-08-01 4.05 1994-09-01 3.95 1994-10-01 4.55 1994-11-01 4.68 1994-12-01 3.82 1995-01-01 4.24 1995-02-01 3.70 1995-03-01 3.47 1995-04-01 2.71 1995-05-01 3.00 1995-06-01 3.12 1995-07-01 3.82 1995-08-01 4.34 1995-09-01 3.61 1995-10-01 4.20 1995-11-01 4.04 1995-12-01 4.01 1996-01-01 3.74 1996-02-01 2.98 1996-03-01 3.40 1996-04-01 3.12 1996-05-01 3.39 1996-06-01 2.84 1996-07-01 2.94 1996-08-01 2.99 1996-09-01 3.53 1996-10-01 2.55 1996-11-01 2.56 1996-12-01 2.79 1997-01-01 3.46 1997-02-01 3.28 1997-03-01 3.22 1997-04-01 3.77 1997-05-01 3.46 1997-06-01 3.20 1997-07-01 3.05 1997-08-01 3.46 1997-09-01 3.79 1997-10-01 3.56 1997-11-01 3.52 1997-12-01 3.53 1998-01-01 2.98 1998-02-01 2.83 1998-03-01 2.59 1998-04-01 3.42 1998-05-01 3.30 1998-06-01 3.19 1998-07-01 3.27 1998-08-01 2.37 1998-09-01 2.62 1998-10-01 2.69 1998-11-01 2.82 1998-12-01 2.81 1999-01-01 2.56 1999-02-01 3.03 1999-03-01 2.67 1999-04-01 2.70 1999-05-01 2.94 1999-06-01 3.09 1999-07-01 2.74 1999-08-01 2.78 1999-09-01 2.86 1999-10-01 2.76 1999-11-01 2.86 1999-12-01 2.99 2000-01-01 2.58 2000-02-01 2.58 2000-03-01 2.13 2000-04-01 1.76 2000-05-01 1.71 2000-06-01 1.15 2000-07-01 1.34 2000-08-01 1.20 2000-09-01 0.89 2000-10-01 1.38 2000-11-01 1.00 2000-12-01 0.21 2001-01-01 0.28 2001-02-01 -0.13 2001-03-01 -0.07 2001-04-01 -0.12 2001-05-01 0.32 2001-06-01 -0.09 2001-07-01 -0.31 2001-08-01 -0.33 2001-09-01 -0.45 2001-10-01 -0.98 2001-11-01 -0.92 2001-12-01 -0.13 2002-01-01 0.20 2002-02-01 0.41 2002-03-01 1.23 2002-04-01 1.31 2002-05-01 1.63 2002-06-01 1.33 2002-07-01 1.15 2002-08-01 0.60 2002-09-01 0.65 2002-10-01 1.33 2002-11-01 1.13 2002-12-01 1.23 2003-01-01 1.63 2003-02-01 1.56 2003-03-01 1.68 2003-04-01 1.49 2003-05-01 1.32 2003-06-01 1.73 2003-07-01 1.99 2003-08-01 2.68 2003-09-01 3.32 2003-10-01 3.43 2003-11-01 3.35 2003-12-01 3.63 2004-01-01 2.95 2004-02-01 2.58 2004-03-01 2.32 2004-04-01 3.05 2004-05-01 3.00 2004-06-01 3.14 2004-07-01 3.71 2004-08-01 3.94 2004-09-01 3.98 2004-10-01 4.12 2004-11-01 3.91 2004-12-01 3.54 2005-01-01 3.18 2005-02-01 3.31 2005-03-01 3.32 2005-04-01 3.52 2005-05-01 4.04 2005-06-01 3.79 2005-07-01 4.00 2005-08-01 3.73 2005-09-01 3.40 2005-10-01 3.40 2005-11-01 3.50 2005-12-01 3.63 2006-01-01 3.85 2006-02-01 3.51 2006-03-01 3.11 2006-04-01 2.01 2006-05-01 1.64 2006-06-01 1.48 2006-07-01 0.91 2006-08-01 1.07 2006-09-01 0.42 2006-10-01 0.86 2006-11-01 0.26 2006-12-01 0.08 2007-01-01 0.92 2007-02-01 0.65 2007-03-01 0.37 2007-04-01 0.32 2007-05-01 0.15 2007-06-01 -0.23 2007-07-01 -0.44 2007-08-01 -1.10 2007-09-01 -1.67 2007-10-01 -1.97 2007-11-01 -1.97 2007-12-01 -1.95 2008-01-01 -2.53 2008-02-01 -2.68 2008-03-01 -2.46 2008-04-01 -2.94 2008-05-01 -3.13 2008-06-01 -3.37 2008-07-01 -3.97 2008-08-01 -4.17 2008-09-01 -4.14 2008-10-01 -4.90 2008-11-01 -5.63 2008-12-01 -6.55 2009-01-01 -6.63 2009-02-01 -6.64 2009-03-01 -6.14 2009-04-01 -5.29 2009-05-01 -3.65 2009-06-01 -2.63 2009-07-01 -2.36 2009-08-01 -2.17 2009-09-01 -2.10 2009-10-01 -1.65 2009-11-01 -1.40 2009-12-01 -0.92 2010-01-01 -0.53 2010-02-01 0.13 2010-03-01 0.77 2010-04-01 0.47 2010-05-01 0.37 2010-06-01 -0.01 2010-07-01 0.10 2010-08-01 -0.41 2010-09-01 -0.41 2010-10-01 -0.04 2010-11-01 0.42 2010-12-01 0.99 2011-01-01 1.66 2011-02-01 1.45 2011-03-01 1.57 2011-04-01 1.30 2011-05-01 0.45 2011-06-01 0.55 2011-07-01 1.18 2011-08-01 1.63 2011-09-01 2.26 2011-10-01 1.84 2011-11-01 2.39 2011-12-01 2.76 2012-01-01 2.58 2012-02-01 1.91 2012-03-01 1.80 2012-04-01 2.35 2012-05-01 1.80 2012-06-01 1.57 2012-07-01 2.32 2012-08-01 2.20 2012-09-01 2.08 2012-10-01 2.02 2012-11-01 2.04 2012-12-01 1.33 2013-01-01 1.16 2013-02-01 1.53 2013-03-01 1.71 2013-04-01 1.91 2013-05-01 1.62 2013-06-01 2.16 2013-07-01 1.75 2013-08-01 1.47 2013-09-01 1.62 2013-10-01 1.29 2013-11-01 1.47 2013-12-01 1.68 2014-01-01 1.91 2014-02-01 1.67 2014-03-01 1.15 2014-04-01 1.12 2014-05-01 1.66 2014-06-01 1.89 2014-07-01 1.48 2014-08-01 1.76 2014-09-01 1.97 2014-10-01 2.21 2014-11-01 1.96 2014-12-01 2.16 2015-01-01 2.01 2015-02-01 2.26 2015-03-01 2.49 2015-04-01 2.65 2015-05-01 2.34 2015-06-01 2.57 2015-07-01 2.56 2015-08-01 2.45 2015-09-01 2.97 2015-10-01 2.86 2015-11-01 2.41 2015-12-01 1.96 2016-01-01 2.95 2016-02-01 2.96 2016-03-01 2.63 2016-04-01 1.50 2016-05-01 0.63 2016-06-01 -0.11 2016-07-01 -0.76 2016-08-01 1.01