Title: Leading Index for Arizona Series ID: AZSLIND Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Release: State Leading Indexes Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly Units: Percent Date Range: 1982-01-01 to 2018-09-01 Last Updated: 2018-11-05 1:31 PM CST Notes: The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state's coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill. DATE VALUE 1982-01-01 -4.15 1982-02-01 -3.21 1982-03-01 -3.25 1982-04-01 -2.80 1982-05-01 -2.23 1982-06-01 -2.10 1982-07-01 -2.27 1982-08-01 -2.32 1982-09-01 -0.50 1982-10-01 1.40 1982-11-01 3.15 1982-12-01 4.28 1983-01-01 5.66 1983-02-01 7.06 1983-03-01 7.85 1983-04-01 7.68 1983-05-01 7.99 1983-06-01 8.32 1983-07-01 8.57 1983-08-01 8.43 1983-09-01 9.39 1983-10-01 7.72 1983-11-01 6.98 1983-12-01 6.07 1984-01-01 5.99 1984-02-01 4.52 1984-03-01 4.00 1984-04-01 4.07 1984-05-01 3.84 1984-06-01 2.92 1984-07-01 1.71 1984-08-01 1.36 1984-09-01 -0.41 1984-10-01 -0.95 1984-11-01 -0.54 1984-12-01 -0.43 1985-01-01 0.09 1985-02-01 0.90 1985-03-01 0.35 1985-04-01 0.69 1985-05-01 0.04 1985-06-01 0.26 1985-07-01 0.85 1985-08-01 2.22 1985-09-01 2.66 1985-10-01 3.19 1985-11-01 3.29 1985-12-01 2.19 1986-01-01 1.54 1986-02-01 0.51 1986-03-01 0.26 1986-04-01 0.19 1986-05-01 0.88 1986-06-01 1.59 1986-07-01 1.13 1986-08-01 1.89 1986-09-01 0.91 1986-10-01 1.10 1986-11-01 1.51 1986-12-01 2.64 1987-01-01 2.93 1987-02-01 2.78 1987-03-01 2.78 1987-04-01 3.72 1987-05-01 3.66 1987-06-01 3.92 1987-07-01 2.34 1987-08-01 2.24 1987-09-01 1.57 1987-10-01 1.88 1987-11-01 1.83 1987-12-01 1.65 1988-01-01 0.38 1988-02-01 -0.01 1988-03-01 1.05 1988-04-01 1.11 1988-05-01 1.87 1988-06-01 2.78 1988-07-01 3.05 1988-08-01 2.41 1988-09-01 2.00 1988-10-01 2.48 1988-11-01 2.87 1988-12-01 2.75 1989-01-01 3.62 1989-02-01 3.67 1989-03-01 3.42 1989-04-01 2.41 1989-05-01 0.92 1989-06-01 0.58 1989-07-01 2.52 1989-08-01 3.31 1989-09-01 2.13 1989-10-01 2.27 1989-11-01 2.13 1989-12-01 1.62 1990-01-01 0.90 1990-02-01 0.21 1990-03-01 0.17 1990-04-01 1.66 1990-05-01 3.01 1990-06-01 1.97 1990-07-01 0.88 1990-08-01 2.21 1990-09-01 2.12 1990-10-01 1.48 1990-11-01 1.65 1990-12-01 1.88 1991-01-01 1.83 1991-02-01 1.49 1991-03-01 0.57 1991-04-01 0.67 1991-05-01 0.25 1991-06-01 0.42 1991-07-01 0.68 1991-08-01 -0.25 1991-09-01 -0.87 1991-10-01 -0.46 1991-11-01 0.26 1991-12-01 -0.50 1992-01-01 -0.20 1992-02-01 0.51 1992-03-01 1.31 1992-04-01 2.34 1992-05-01 4.07 1992-06-01 3.51 1992-07-01 3.45 1992-08-01 3.50 1992-09-01 3.78 1992-10-01 3.46 1992-11-01 2.95 1992-12-01 3.89 1993-01-01 3.58 1993-02-01 4.45 1993-03-01 3.57 1993-04-01 4.44 1993-05-01 4.05 1993-06-01 4.26 1993-07-01 3.69 1993-08-01 3.00 1993-09-01 2.28 1993-10-01 2.15 1993-11-01 2.10 1993-12-01 2.79 1994-01-01 1.94 1994-02-01 2.46 1994-03-01 2.50 1994-04-01 2.45 1994-05-01 1.49 1994-06-01 1.74 1994-07-01 2.09 1994-08-01 2.25 1994-09-01 2.68 1994-10-01 3.95 1994-11-01 3.40 1994-12-01 3.35 1995-01-01 3.86 1995-02-01 2.81 1995-03-01 1.37 1995-04-01 1.13 1995-05-01 1.53 1995-06-01 1.79 1995-07-01 2.69 1995-08-01 2.50 1995-09-01 1.95 1995-10-01 2.11 1995-11-01 2.01 1995-12-01 1.96 1996-01-01 1.46 1996-02-01 0.63 1996-03-01 1.35 1996-04-01 0.74 1996-05-01 1.39 1996-06-01 1.31 1996-07-01 1.65 1996-08-01 1.66 1996-09-01 2.78 1996-10-01 2.04 1996-11-01 2.44 1996-12-01 2.56 1997-01-01 3.52 1997-02-01 3.36 1997-03-01 3.67 1997-04-01 4.19 1997-05-01 3.23 1997-06-01 2.45 1997-07-01 2.54 1997-08-01 1.72 1997-09-01 3.03 1997-10-01 2.83 1997-11-01 2.13 1997-12-01 2.00 1998-01-01 1.38 1998-02-01 1.12 1998-03-01 1.51 1998-04-01 1.62 1998-05-01 2.69 1998-06-01 1.32 1998-07-01 1.24 1998-08-01 1.81 1998-09-01 2.07 1998-10-01 0.49 1998-11-01 1.52 1998-12-01 1.12 1999-01-01 1.59 1999-02-01 1.42 1999-03-01 1.71 1999-04-01 2.13 1999-05-01 1.78 1999-06-01 2.82 1999-07-01 1.99 1999-08-01 1.84 1999-09-01 2.74 1999-10-01 2.18 1999-11-01 2.48 1999-12-01 1.95 2000-01-01 2.22 2000-02-01 1.91 2000-03-01 2.59 2000-04-01 1.97 2000-05-01 1.61 2000-06-01 1.13 2000-07-01 1.12 2000-08-01 2.47 2000-09-01 1.86 2000-10-01 1.40 2000-11-01 1.15 2000-12-01 1.24 2001-01-01 0.20 2001-02-01 0.01 2001-03-01 0.15 2001-04-01 -0.04 2001-05-01 0.06 2001-06-01 -0.48 2001-07-01 -0.52 2001-08-01 -0.19 2001-09-01 -0.29 2001-10-01 -0.45 2001-11-01 -0.67 2001-12-01 0.23 2002-01-01 0.78 2002-02-01 1.10 2002-03-01 2.39 2002-04-01 2.42 2002-05-01 2.53 2002-06-01 1.71 2002-07-01 1.94 2002-08-01 2.11 2002-09-01 2.24 2002-10-01 3.03 2002-11-01 2.68 2002-12-01 2.18 2003-01-01 3.07 2003-02-01 3.68 2003-03-01 2.24 2003-04-01 1.47 2003-05-01 1.85 2003-06-01 3.18 2003-07-01 2.76 2003-08-01 2.43 2003-09-01 3.49 2003-10-01 4.16 2003-11-01 3.90 2003-12-01 4.01 2004-01-01 3.47 2004-02-01 2.07 2004-03-01 2.02 2004-04-01 3.05 2004-05-01 2.98 2004-06-01 3.12 2004-07-01 3.33 2004-08-01 3.51 2004-09-01 3.09 2004-10-01 2.72 2004-11-01 2.11 2004-12-01 1.95 2005-01-01 1.70 2005-02-01 1.90 2005-03-01 1.75 2005-04-01 1.94 2005-05-01 2.85 2005-06-01 2.42 2005-07-01 2.61 2005-08-01 2.05 2005-09-01 2.25 2005-10-01 1.95 2005-11-01 2.52 2005-12-01 2.11 2006-01-01 2.33 2006-02-01 2.82 2006-03-01 2.22 2006-04-01 1.04 2006-05-01 1.53 2006-06-01 0.77 2006-07-01 0.94 2006-08-01 0.89 2006-09-01 1.19 2006-10-01 1.62 2006-11-01 0.85 2006-12-01 1.67 2007-01-01 1.69 2007-02-01 2.16 2007-03-01 1.88 2007-04-01 1.91 2007-05-01 1.43 2007-06-01 1.79 2007-07-01 1.48 2007-08-01 -0.22 2007-09-01 -0.80 2007-10-01 -0.36 2007-11-01 -1.14 2007-12-01 -1.53 2008-01-01 -1.24 2008-02-01 -1.57 2008-03-01 -2.30 2008-04-01 -2.27 2008-05-01 -1.75 2008-06-01 -1.76 2008-07-01 -2.73 2008-08-01 -2.36 2008-09-01 -2.04 2008-10-01 -3.27 2008-11-01 -3.26 2008-12-01 -3.45 2009-01-01 -4.27 2009-02-01 -4.04 2009-03-01 -3.19 2009-04-01 -1.60 2009-05-01 -0.21 2009-06-01 0.88 2009-07-01 1.05 2009-08-01 1.23 2009-09-01 1.29 2009-10-01 1.38 2009-11-01 1.89 2009-12-01 2.96 2010-01-01 2.95 2010-02-01 3.56 2010-03-01 4.03 2010-04-01 3.37 2010-05-01 4.05 2010-06-01 2.99 2010-07-01 2.08 2010-08-01 0.96 2010-09-01 1.23 2010-10-01 1.92 2010-11-01 3.20 2010-12-01 3.11 2011-01-01 2.99 2011-02-01 3.25 2011-03-01 2.57 2011-04-01 2.08 2011-05-01 2.08 2011-06-01 1.90 2011-07-01 1.96 2011-08-01 3.56 2011-09-01 4.87 2011-10-01 4.55 2011-11-01 4.54 2011-12-01 4.32 2012-01-01 3.73 2012-02-01 2.47 2012-03-01 3.07 2012-04-01 3.02 2012-05-01 3.55 2012-06-01 2.87 2012-07-01 3.91 2012-08-01 3.97 2012-09-01 3.35 2012-10-01 3.16 2012-11-01 3.18 2012-12-01 2.34 2013-01-01 1.76 2013-02-01 1.83 2013-03-01 1.94 2013-04-01 2.23 2013-05-01 2.90 2013-06-01 2.64 2013-07-01 2.03 2013-08-01 2.77 2013-09-01 2.38 2013-10-01 2.61 2013-11-01 3.08 2013-12-01 3.08 2014-01-01 3.22 2014-02-01 4.07 2014-03-01 3.38 2014-04-01 2.81 2014-05-01 2.76 2014-06-01 2.04 2014-07-01 2.80 2014-08-01 3.26 2014-09-01 2.35 2014-10-01 2.19 2014-11-01 3.03 2014-12-01 2.84 2015-01-01 2.88 2015-02-01 3.30 2015-03-01 2.41 2015-04-01 2.77 2015-05-01 3.59 2015-06-01 3.26 2015-07-01 2.58 2015-08-01 2.38 2015-09-01 3.13 2015-10-01 3.85 2015-11-01 2.58 2015-12-01 2.77 2016-01-01 2.14 2016-02-01 2.62 2016-03-01 3.03 2016-04-01 2.17 2016-05-01 2.59 2016-06-01 2.11 2016-07-01 2.57 2016-08-01 1.97 2016-09-01 2.62 2016-10-01 2.06 2016-11-01 1.85 2016-12-01 1.72 2017-01-01 2.08 2017-02-01 3.31 2017-03-01 2.59 2017-04-01 2.86 2017-05-01 3.09 2017-06-01 3.15 2017-07-01 2.91 2017-08-01 2.09 2017-09-01 2.01 2017-10-01 1.70 2017-11-01 1.51 2017-12-01 1.66 2018-01-01 1.41 2018-02-01 1.06 2018-03-01 1.70 2018-04-01 2.09 2018-05-01 3.67 2018-06-01 2.85 2018-07-01 2.60 2018-08-01 2.86 2018-09-01 1.54