Title: Leading Index for Arizona Series ID: AZSLIND Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Release: State Leading Indexes Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly Units: Percent Date Range: 1982-01-01 to 2018-07-01 Last Updated: 2018-09-05 1:31 PM CDT Notes: The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state's coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill. DATE VALUE 1982-01-01 -4.16 1982-02-01 -3.23 1982-03-01 -3.24 1982-04-01 -2.83 1982-05-01 -2.27 1982-06-01 -2.14 1982-07-01 -2.27 1982-08-01 -2.31 1982-09-01 -0.50 1982-10-01 1.37 1982-11-01 3.12 1982-12-01 4.23 1983-01-01 5.63 1983-02-01 7.02 1983-03-01 7.79 1983-04-01 7.66 1983-05-01 7.97 1983-06-01 8.31 1983-07-01 8.54 1983-08-01 8.44 1983-09-01 9.40 1983-10-01 7.73 1983-11-01 7.00 1983-12-01 6.13 1984-01-01 6.05 1984-02-01 4.55 1984-03-01 4.05 1984-04-01 4.10 1984-05-01 3.89 1984-06-01 2.97 1984-07-01 1.74 1984-08-01 1.37 1984-09-01 -0.36 1984-10-01 -0.92 1984-11-01 -0.51 1984-12-01 -0.44 1985-01-01 0.08 1985-02-01 0.89 1985-03-01 0.36 1985-04-01 0.66 1985-05-01 0.02 1985-06-01 0.23 1985-07-01 0.85 1985-08-01 2.19 1985-09-01 2.62 1985-10-01 3.17 1985-11-01 3.28 1985-12-01 2.18 1986-01-01 1.50 1986-02-01 0.50 1986-03-01 0.27 1986-04-01 0.22 1986-05-01 0.91 1986-06-01 1.60 1986-07-01 1.12 1986-08-01 1.88 1986-09-01 0.90 1986-10-01 1.08 1986-11-01 1.49 1986-12-01 2.60 1987-01-01 2.92 1987-02-01 2.78 1987-03-01 2.78 1987-04-01 3.71 1987-05-01 3.65 1987-06-01 3.91 1987-07-01 2.35 1987-08-01 2.24 1987-09-01 1.60 1987-10-01 1.89 1987-11-01 1.83 1987-12-01 1.65 1988-01-01 0.41 1988-02-01 0.01 1988-03-01 1.08 1988-04-01 1.11 1988-05-01 1.86 1988-06-01 2.76 1988-07-01 3.04 1988-08-01 2.46 1988-09-01 1.99 1988-10-01 2.48 1988-11-01 2.86 1988-12-01 2.74 1989-01-01 3.59 1989-02-01 3.65 1989-03-01 3.41 1989-04-01 2.43 1989-05-01 0.95 1989-06-01 0.62 1989-07-01 2.52 1989-08-01 3.29 1989-09-01 2.13 1989-10-01 2.28 1989-11-01 2.13 1989-12-01 1.62 1990-01-01 0.90 1990-02-01 0.23 1990-03-01 0.20 1990-04-01 1.64 1990-05-01 2.99 1990-06-01 1.94 1990-07-01 0.88 1990-08-01 2.21 1990-09-01 2.11 1990-10-01 1.51 1990-11-01 1.65 1990-12-01 1.86 1991-01-01 1.82 1991-02-01 1.48 1991-03-01 0.58 1991-04-01 0.68 1991-05-01 0.26 1991-06-01 0.43 1991-07-01 0.68 1991-08-01 -0.24 1991-09-01 -0.85 1991-10-01 -0.47 1991-11-01 0.24 1991-12-01 -0.51 1992-01-01 -0.19 1992-02-01 0.50 1992-03-01 1.28 1992-04-01 2.33 1992-05-01 4.03 1992-06-01 3.48 1992-07-01 3.44 1992-08-01 3.48 1992-09-01 3.78 1992-10-01 3.47 1992-11-01 2.97 1992-12-01 3.87 1993-01-01 3.56 1993-02-01 4.41 1993-03-01 3.55 1993-04-01 4.45 1993-05-01 4.06 1993-06-01 4.25 1993-07-01 3.67 1993-08-01 3.00 1993-09-01 2.31 1993-10-01 2.15 1993-11-01 2.11 1993-12-01 2.79 1994-01-01 1.96 1994-02-01 2.48 1994-03-01 2.51 1994-04-01 2.45 1994-05-01 1.47 1994-06-01 1.74 1994-07-01 2.11 1994-08-01 2.25 1994-09-01 2.66 1994-10-01 3.94 1994-11-01 3.39 1994-12-01 3.35 1995-01-01 3.88 1995-02-01 2.82 1995-03-01 1.43 1995-04-01 1.16 1995-05-01 1.54 1995-06-01 1.80 1995-07-01 2.69 1995-08-01 2.51 1995-09-01 1.95 1995-10-01 2.14 1995-11-01 2.03 1995-12-01 1.96 1996-01-01 1.45 1996-02-01 0.64 1996-03-01 1.35 1996-04-01 0.75 1996-05-01 1.40 1996-06-01 1.31 1996-07-01 1.64 1996-08-01 1.64 1996-09-01 2.76 1996-10-01 2.03 1996-11-01 2.41 1996-12-01 2.54 1997-01-01 3.50 1997-02-01 3.37 1997-03-01 3.65 1997-04-01 4.19 1997-05-01 3.23 1997-06-01 2.47 1997-07-01 2.56 1997-08-01 1.73 1997-09-01 3.05 1997-10-01 2.85 1997-11-01 2.14 1997-12-01 2.02 1998-01-01 1.38 1998-02-01 1.12 1998-03-01 1.51 1998-04-01 1.63 1998-05-01 2.70 1998-06-01 1.33 1998-07-01 1.25 1998-08-01 1.81 1998-09-01 2.06 1998-10-01 0.50 1998-11-01 1.55 1998-12-01 1.14 1999-01-01 1.60 1999-02-01 1.43 1999-03-01 1.72 1999-04-01 2.13 1999-05-01 1.76 1999-06-01 2.78 1999-07-01 1.97 1999-08-01 1.86 1999-09-01 2.74 1999-10-01 2.18 1999-11-01 2.50 1999-12-01 1.95 2000-01-01 2.23 2000-02-01 1.91 2000-03-01 2.57 2000-04-01 1.97 2000-05-01 1.63 2000-06-01 1.17 2000-07-01 1.13 2000-08-01 2.46 2000-09-01 1.86 2000-10-01 1.40 2000-11-01 1.14 2000-12-01 1.23 2001-01-01 0.22 2001-02-01 0.04 2001-03-01 0.17 2001-04-01 -0.03 2001-05-01 0.06 2001-06-01 -0.47 2001-07-01 -0.51 2001-08-01 -0.18 2001-09-01 -0.31 2001-10-01 -0.47 2001-11-01 -0.68 2001-12-01 0.23 2002-01-01 0.77 2002-02-01 1.08 2002-03-01 2.40 2002-04-01 2.40 2002-05-01 2.52 2002-06-01 1.70 2002-07-01 1.92 2002-08-01 2.09 2002-09-01 2.22 2002-10-01 3.03 2002-11-01 2.71 2002-12-01 2.18 2003-01-01 3.08 2003-02-01 3.68 2003-03-01 2.25 2003-04-01 1.48 2003-05-01 1.83 2003-06-01 3.15 2003-07-01 2.76 2003-08-01 2.44 2003-09-01 3.50 2003-10-01 4.14 2003-11-01 3.89 2003-12-01 4.00 2004-01-01 3.46 2004-02-01 2.09 2004-03-01 2.05 2004-04-01 3.08 2004-05-01 2.99 2004-06-01 3.11 2004-07-01 3.34 2004-08-01 3.52 2004-09-01 3.12 2004-10-01 2.75 2004-11-01 2.14 2004-12-01 1.97 2005-01-01 1.71 2005-02-01 1.90 2005-03-01 1.78 2005-04-01 1.97 2005-05-01 2.84 2005-06-01 2.38 2005-07-01 2.59 2005-08-01 2.07 2005-09-01 2.22 2005-10-01 1.93 2005-11-01 2.60 2005-12-01 2.14 2006-01-01 2.31 2006-02-01 2.84 2006-03-01 2.26 2006-04-01 1.03 2006-05-01 1.52 2006-06-01 0.77 2006-07-01 0.94 2006-08-01 0.88 2006-09-01 1.16 2006-10-01 1.63 2006-11-01 0.84 2006-12-01 1.66 2007-01-01 1.70 2007-02-01 2.19 2007-03-01 1.91 2007-04-01 1.90 2007-05-01 1.44 2007-06-01 1.79 2007-07-01 1.49 2007-08-01 -0.22 2007-09-01 -0.78 2007-10-01 -0.36 2007-11-01 -1.14 2007-12-01 -1.49 2008-01-01 -1.24 2008-02-01 -1.59 2008-03-01 -2.30 2008-04-01 -2.28 2008-05-01 -1.74 2008-06-01 -1.77 2008-07-01 -2.73 2008-08-01 -2.35 2008-09-01 -2.06 2008-10-01 -3.31 2008-11-01 -3.28 2008-12-01 -3.50 2009-01-01 -4.29 2009-02-01 -4.07 2009-03-01 -3.19 2009-04-01 -1.61 2009-05-01 -0.28 2009-06-01 0.85 2009-07-01 1.04 2009-08-01 1.20 2009-09-01 1.29 2009-10-01 1.38 2009-11-01 1.91 2009-12-01 2.96 2010-01-01 2.92 2010-02-01 3.56 2010-03-01 4.01 2010-04-01 3.36 2010-05-01 4.07 2010-06-01 2.94 2010-07-01 2.04 2010-08-01 0.97 2010-09-01 1.27 2010-10-01 1.93 2010-11-01 3.16 2010-12-01 3.10 2011-01-01 3.02 2011-02-01 3.24 2011-03-01 2.59 2011-04-01 2.10 2011-05-01 2.10 2011-06-01 1.90 2011-07-01 1.96 2011-08-01 3.55 2011-09-01 4.84 2011-10-01 4.53 2011-11-01 4.53 2011-12-01 4.34 2012-01-01 3.74 2012-02-01 2.49 2012-03-01 3.10 2012-04-01 3.04 2012-05-01 3.54 2012-06-01 2.85 2012-07-01 3.90 2012-08-01 3.97 2012-09-01 3.35 2012-10-01 3.17 2012-11-01 3.19 2012-12-01 2.34 2013-01-01 1.77 2013-02-01 1.85 2013-03-01 1.92 2013-04-01 2.23 2013-05-01 2.92 2013-06-01 2.68 2013-07-01 2.03 2013-08-01 2.77 2013-09-01 2.39 2013-10-01 2.58 2013-11-01 3.05 2013-12-01 3.04 2014-01-01 3.21 2014-02-01 4.05 2014-03-01 3.35 2014-04-01 2.81 2014-05-01 2.81 2014-06-01 2.10 2014-07-01 2.80 2014-08-01 3.25 2014-09-01 2.37 2014-10-01 2.20 2014-11-01 3.01 2014-12-01 2.84 2015-01-01 2.89 2015-02-01 3.31 2015-03-01 2.36 2015-04-01 2.76 2015-05-01 3.61 2015-06-01 3.28 2015-07-01 2.60 2015-08-01 2.40 2015-09-01 3.16 2015-10-01 3.86 2015-11-01 2.57 2015-12-01 2.84 2016-01-01 2.13 2016-02-01 2.55 2016-03-01 2.90 2016-04-01 2.12 2016-05-01 2.63 2016-06-01 2.18 2016-07-01 2.58 2016-08-01 1.97 2016-09-01 2.65 2016-10-01 2.07 2016-11-01 1.82 2016-12-01 1.60 2017-01-01 2.08 2017-02-01 3.34 2017-03-01 2.66 2017-04-01 2.91 2017-05-01 3.11 2017-06-01 3.10 2017-07-01 2.88 2017-08-01 2.14 2017-09-01 2.10 2017-10-01 1.75 2017-11-01 1.54 2017-12-01 1.65 2018-01-01 1.45 2018-02-01 1.06 2018-03-01 1.69 2018-04-01 2.01 2018-05-01 3.47 2018-06-01 2.39 2018-07-01 1.72