Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Lagging Subcomponent of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Lagging Subcomponent of GDP
Series ID BBKMCLA
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-09-01
Last Updated 2026-11-02 7:33 AM CST
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The lagging subcomponent of the cycle expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
ave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 5.5245659103
1960-02-01 -2.9297114111
1960-03-01 -6.8385784053
1960-04-01 -3.0766890101
1960-05-01 -4.2329802747
1960-06-01 -5.3483203446
1960-07-01 -3.7864000941
1960-08-01 -3.5891433028
1960-09-01 -3.9143644272
1960-10-01 -3.8537922048
1960-11-01 -7.5292365419
1960-12-01 -7.6455459201
1961-01-01 -2.7002586880
1961-02-01 -2.2196828780
1961-03-01 1.7731980941
1961-04-01 4.1862157227
1961-05-01 4.2743719983
1961-06-01 4.6203700571
1961-07-01 3.8205957995
1961-08-01 5.3134446955
1961-09-01 1.2559336860
1961-10-01 5.2493161952
1961-11-01 5.0104171259
1961-12-01 3.1398634554
1962-01-01 -1.6718139866
1962-02-01 5.1956660577
1962-03-01 1.6826574967
1962-04-01 0.1852432431
1962-05-01 -0.9572401580
1962-06-01 -1.8300676073
1962-07-01 1.0003955692
1962-08-01 -0.5520311759
1962-09-01 1.4548180997
1962-10-01 -1.0501882620
1962-11-01 0.3885833463
1962-12-01 -1.0682452906
1963-01-01 0.6627321194
1963-02-01 3.6687175427
1963-03-01 1.5849170713
1963-04-01 3.3372812439
1963-05-01 2.4488501814
1963-06-01 1.0987535959
1963-07-01 0.0263582489
1963-08-01 0.2263117441
1963-09-01 1.5011504729
1963-10-01 2.5277228656
1963-11-01 0.0536197838
1963-12-01 0.7019824564
1964-01-01 1.9850236615
1964-02-01 2.2204491709
1964-03-01 0.9675964401
1964-04-01 3.0374289272
1964-05-01 1.6878353805
1964-06-01 -0.0891028246
1964-07-01 3.0092039962
1964-08-01 0.5401722869
1964-09-01 1.5229604308
1964-10-01 -2.7842818600
1964-11-01 6.9097753286
1964-12-01 4.6893565595
1965-01-01 2.6441512536
1965-02-01 1.9012121766
1965-03-01 4.8013740621
1965-04-01 1.2431678237
1965-05-01 1.5073082770
1965-06-01 1.2422454858
1965-07-01 3.1886486348
1965-08-01 -0.0777231318
1965-09-01 0.3806379992
1965-10-01 3.0773521503
1965-11-01 3.1218458555
1965-12-01 4.2265317598
1966-01-01 3.4650541558
1966-02-01 4.1513336473
1966-03-01 4.7738617416
1966-04-01 -0.0423849753
1966-05-01 -0.4245985344
1966-06-01 1.0900645769
1966-07-01 0.4560286218
1966-08-01 0.7746723675
1966-09-01 1.1295669658
1966-10-01 -0.1455871146
1966-11-01 -3.6497194949
1966-12-01 -2.4523597802
1967-01-01 -1.9167028001
1967-02-01 -4.9530640410
1967-03-01 -2.5445477803
1967-04-01 -1.9007972240
1967-05-01 -2.8937594798
1967-06-01 -0.7071466567
1967-07-01 -2.0627809657
1967-08-01 3.5448715821
1967-09-01 -0.5218040078
1967-10-01 -0.1885187714
1967-11-01 5.6866691806
1967-12-01 3.7672582287
1968-01-01 -1.7936782760
1968-02-01 0.0536296635
1968-03-01 0.8016376125
1968-04-01 -0.4758328708
1968-05-01 2.1629997093
1968-06-01 0.0533914458
1968-07-01 0.0766827209
1968-08-01 -2.1888156697
1968-09-01 1.5392910313
1968-10-01 1.9945729344
1968-11-01 2.3190760258
1968-12-01 -0.7254414737
1969-01-01 0.6411779930
1969-02-01 0.9863050229
1969-03-01 2.5151997427
1969-04-01 0.3003654039
1969-05-01 -1.2922939757
1969-06-01 0.5404153522
1969-07-01 0.3891061167
1969-08-01 0.4383278801
1969-09-01 -0.2693783604
1969-10-01 -0.5210418840
1969-11-01 -4.8255471932
1969-12-01 -2.4097545293
1970-01-01 -6.1698472071
1970-02-01 -2.4927928868
1970-03-01 -3.8432216336
1970-04-01 -3.7520036362
1970-05-01 -1.8412691587
1970-06-01 -1.8766940911
1970-07-01 -1.0661686218
1970-08-01 -3.7226245777
1970-09-01 -4.2329097057
1970-10-01 -7.7377822425
1970-11-01 -5.1031321440
1970-12-01 6.1495274197
1971-01-01 1.4121743428
1971-02-01 -0.0197904999
1971-03-01 -0.3205395300
1971-04-01 0.6547116887
1971-05-01 1.2194086978
1971-06-01 1.7736072349
1971-07-01 -2.3018427141
1971-08-01 -0.6906871546
1971-09-01 3.4204788917
1971-10-01 0.7793076060
1971-11-01 2.2968385972
1971-12-01 3.4423078245
1972-01-01 4.7250721823
1972-02-01 2.0192106161
1972-03-01 2.7960061644
1972-04-01 2.4513528198
1972-05-01 1.0388362140
1972-06-01 1.2423479536
1972-07-01 -0.8787840574
1972-08-01 4.8746225182
1972-09-01 3.9803877838
1972-10-01 4.5750902894
1972-11-01 5.8024346223
1972-12-01 4.8967073736
1973-01-01 4.8058630060
1973-02-01 5.3723935927
1973-03-01 2.2450772725
1973-04-01 0.3520871299
1973-05-01 1.8935670640
1973-06-01 1.1784266837
1973-07-01 1.0620254311
1973-08-01 0.3884356746
1973-09-01 1.2855660484
1973-10-01 5.1059498399
1973-11-01 3.5673847942
1973-12-01 -0.8727093641
1974-01-01 -0.5255659874
1974-02-01 -0.7255271995
1974-03-01 -0.1992432612
1974-04-01 -1.9565210363
1974-05-01 0.9938705317
1974-06-01 -1.9268947909
1974-07-01 -1.5197334429
1974-08-01 -3.7217515891
1974-09-01 -3.2352362066
1974-10-01 -4.9809738361
1974-11-01 -11.7116278820
1974-12-01 -16.6371276871
1975-01-01 -8.9750893176
1975-02-01 -10.6845758720
1975-03-01 -10.0476169187
1975-04-01 -1.1263300147
1975-05-01 -2.2149214276
1975-06-01 1.0657587531
1975-07-01 4.1916940830
1975-08-01 3.1211770261
1975-09-01 3.7440689420
1975-10-01 1.3410627036
1975-11-01 0.0564231139
1975-12-01 4.1029108883
1976-01-01 5.2601506991
1976-02-01 3.2826587373
1976-03-01 1.3358293080
1976-04-01 1.1098216355
1976-05-01 1.4971604922
1976-06-01 1.0495111354
1976-07-01 1.2530619002
1976-08-01 0.5425081580
1976-09-01 0.5269054817
1976-10-01 -0.7658816842
1976-11-01 3.4603810361
1976-12-01 4.5388911922
1977-01-01 -1.1108356419
1977-02-01 5.9147295449
1977-03-01 5.3093786211
1977-04-01 2.9904337209
1977-05-01 2.2916879641
1977-06-01 2.6901672826
1977-07-01 0.6035225544
1977-08-01 1.0933579094
1977-09-01 0.4432404438
1977-10-01 0.4541527275
1977-11-01 1.2016189438
1977-12-01 1.5777329609
1978-01-01 -6.2201989757
1978-02-01 3.7550012002
1978-03-01 5.7418122271
1978-04-01 7.1039729884
1978-05-01 2.0107171185
1978-06-01 2.9440361705
1978-07-01 -0.4003852204
1978-08-01 2.6765879406
1978-09-01 1.2676677964
1978-10-01 2.9403058932
1978-11-01 3.0277694634
1978-12-01 1.7514982004
1979-01-01 -1.8929068528
1979-02-01 0.8271773444
1979-03-01 4.5166166498
1979-04-01 -4.7901587932
1979-05-01 5.5164699803
1979-06-01 0.1295403745
1979-07-01 -0.3093722485
1979-08-01 -2.2665787447
1979-09-01 -1.1624801346
1979-10-01 1.3557305711
1979-11-01 -1.0285121130
1979-12-01 -0.2199232264
1980-01-01 1.2722651438
1980-02-01 -1.5084650778
1980-03-01 -6.4312530413
1980-04-01 -10.4158833777
1980-05-01 -11.5049646336
1980-06-01 -6.9938300189
1980-07-01 -3.5972045678
1980-08-01 0.8553408351
1980-09-01 6.2898341831
1980-10-01 5.5387403046
1980-11-01 3.6083478878
1980-12-01 2.0133716490
1981-01-01 -0.7111839212
1981-02-01 -1.8431695966
1981-03-01 -0.8251431546
1981-04-01 -0.1385985827
1981-05-01 -0.6952260400
1981-06-01 -0.6717859004
1981-07-01 0.3044373697
1981-08-01 -2.3228366514
1981-09-01 -4.0457947105
1981-10-01 -6.5909886306
1981-11-01 -7.1587257264
1981-12-01 -8.1541311787
1982-01-01 -9.2724133908
1982-02-01 3.8792659323
1982-03-01 -4.3805227850
1982-04-01 -5.1064584081
1982-05-01 -2.9616234161
1982-06-01 -3.2764536863
1982-07-01 -3.4608644897
1982-08-01 -5.9552273412
1982-09-01 -3.6654820845
1982-10-01 -6.0295656747
1982-11-01 -3.4297864933
1982-12-01 -2.4104460954
1983-01-01 5.2549404930
1983-02-01 -1.0842404424
1983-03-01 3.6892545209
1983-04-01 4.1092446356
1983-05-01 4.2717785345
1983-06-01 5.9578741614
1983-07-01 4.6927826336
1983-08-01 3.5579824668
1983-09-01 6.2707812848
1983-10-01 4.2468890583
1983-11-01 3.9015954329
1983-12-01 3.8491467486
1984-01-01 5.3967665894
1984-02-01 3.6978001633
1984-03-01 1.2971912359
1984-04-01 1.5516151138
1984-05-01 2.3045846547
1984-06-01 1.1755586122
1984-07-01 -0.1083267535
1984-08-01 -0.2618807968
1984-09-01 -2.3446903319
1984-10-01 0.6403828965
1984-11-01 0.8794583477
1984-12-01 -0.7645393726
1985-01-01 -1.4895397005
1985-02-01 -0.6659635977
1985-03-01 1.2536226995
1985-04-01 -1.4809251693
1985-05-01 0.1244458131
1985-06-01 -3.0734481543
1985-07-01 -1.4529342925
1985-08-01 1.3465229366
1985-09-01 -0.4170182660
1985-10-01 -0.8262150139
1985-11-01 1.0924550512
1985-12-01 0.0118249907
1986-01-01 2.6452006632
1986-02-01 -3.4751655648
1986-03-01 -3.6875197300
1986-04-01 0.8019957388
1986-05-01 -1.1955246042
1986-06-01 -0.7357122085
1986-07-01 1.0264899747
1986-08-01 0.1205639128
1986-09-01 1.7879377730
1986-10-01 -0.7566822789
1986-11-01 0.0054895286
1986-12-01 3.2195027209
1987-01-01 -1.8690655982
1987-02-01 5.5592027286
1987-03-01 0.7271600966
1987-04-01 1.4641884573
1987-05-01 1.8947443446
1987-06-01 2.4955498570
1987-07-01 3.4294085967
1987-08-01 0.9646239476
1987-09-01 3.3037740189
1987-10-01 3.3950541346
1987-11-01 1.1617086310
1987-12-01 2.1032605857
1988-01-01 -0.7665986842
1988-02-01 2.1097175089
1988-03-01 2.1655801337
1988-04-01 1.5015582040
1988-05-01 0.2068547589
1988-06-01 2.0108577586
1988-07-01 -0.1331436427
1988-08-01 0.5103497518
1988-09-01 0.8474625207
1988-10-01 1.2124095127
1988-11-01 1.3166249322
1988-12-01 2.7851265764
1989-01-01 1.0365362515
1989-02-01 -2.1278497667
1989-03-01 -0.0455142170
1989-04-01 0.8583219819
1989-05-01 -1.9146863598
1989-06-01 -1.9007740184
1989-07-01 -4.2937938732
1989-08-01 1.9212376655
1989-09-01 -2.2702168434
1989-10-01 -2.0090930815
1989-11-01 0.6874425421
1989-12-01 0.0217090646
1990-01-01 0.2410111815
1990-02-01 2.8069452741
1990-03-01 1.1214419518
1990-04-01 -2.8020246490
1990-05-01 0.0219914707
1990-06-01 0.2037255374
1990-07-01 -1.6127754227
1990-08-01 0.4257438299
1990-09-01 -2.3221676347
1990-10-01 -2.6579062968
1990-11-01 -6.1942928522
1990-12-01 -4.1841524609
1991-01-01 -4.6932457242
1991-02-01 -4.6610645135
1991-03-01 -4.8115023148
1991-04-01 0.8793672147
1991-05-01 1.1054807221
1991-06-01 0.7082734039
1991-07-01 1.7412995421
1991-08-01 0.2391013921
1991-09-01 1.6002332840
1991-10-01 -0.5521714228
1991-11-01 -1.2885149021
1991-12-01 -3.4659083512
1992-01-01 -0.7495239553
1992-02-01 1.0479546795
1992-03-01 3.0410217874
1992-04-01 2.0485981835
1992-05-01 0.3389091397
1992-06-01 1.3067751917
1992-07-01 1.8681662905
1992-08-01 -2.4465031695
1992-09-01 0.9928894882
1992-10-01 1.3954184334
1992-11-01 0.5958493507
1992-12-01 1.5402251920
1993-01-01 1.4085854948
1993-02-01 0.9439094591
1993-03-01 -0.5578464756
1993-04-01 0.7790337655
1993-05-01 -0.0043513609
1993-06-01 -0.1097866362
1993-07-01 -0.7031914135
1993-08-01 -0.4116843697
1993-09-01 1.6184865637
1993-10-01 2.1742420824
1993-11-01 1.3118017979
1993-12-01 1.9084599097
1994-01-01 0.4546507078
1994-02-01 1.0649437846
1994-03-01 5.0001144212
1994-04-01 2.0255152704
1994-05-01 2.5928706802
1994-06-01 2.8797796248
1994-07-01 1.1299154315
1994-08-01 3.5469084003
1994-09-01 1.5841902532
1994-10-01 2.6636582611
1994-11-01 3.2950976639
1994-12-01 3.7304035416
1995-01-01 0.8035297337
1995-02-01 -0.3972687069
1995-03-01 -0.4566702512
1995-04-01 -1.5460928443
1995-05-01 -0.1292962204
1995-06-01 0.2803119148
1995-07-01 -2.1797961531
1995-08-01 2.7114352827
1995-09-01 1.4030359761
1995-10-01 -1.0748643626
1995-11-01 0.0630509292
1995-12-01 0.7398312543
1996-01-01 -3.4869862461
1996-02-01 2.2067513849
1996-03-01 0.6236423601
1996-04-01 1.8041200321
1996-05-01 2.1997046553
1996-06-01 1.5418815956
1996-07-01 0.1945396050
1996-08-01 1.0764168848
1996-09-01 1.4020149657
1996-10-01 0.5540891188
1996-11-01 2.0999467068
1996-12-01 0.3084217652
1997-01-01 0.2884459929
1997-02-01 3.8890208928
1997-03-01 1.5521622165
1997-04-01 1.1652178520
1997-05-01 0.4208710734
1997-06-01 1.4606314783
1997-07-01 2.4510954593
1997-08-01 1.4300489359
1997-09-01 2.0230489944
1997-10-01 1.0780881410
1997-11-01 1.6097759356
1997-12-01 0.2241338615
1998-01-01 0.0904425529
1998-02-01 0.5125272736
1998-03-01 -0.7436037075
1998-04-01 -0.4947106370
1998-05-01 0.2161837703
1998-06-01 -2.1783276476
1998-07-01 -1.6023035981
1998-08-01 2.5906072254
1998-09-01 0.0329822204
1998-10-01 0.7467943457
1998-11-01 -0.7766025098
1998-12-01 -0.0022193411
1999-01-01 -0.1271487325
1999-02-01 1.6566724497
1999-03-01 -0.2379533088
1999-04-01 0.5947304175
1999-05-01 1.4872629902
1999-06-01 0.1285637821
1999-07-01 1.4233411610
1999-08-01 1.5273367634
1999-09-01 0.3822712736
1999-10-01 3.0002365367
1999-11-01 1.4737565816
1999-12-01 1.8751308719
2000-01-01 0.9655145117
2000-02-01 -0.7623837878
2000-03-01 2.7215092314
2000-04-01 1.5036262143
2000-05-01 -0.4474233133
2000-06-01 1.1039779754
2000-07-01 -1.5435116914
2000-08-01 -1.2052419520
2000-09-01 0.9601094077
2000-10-01 -2.1735215107
2000-11-01 -2.0605383832
2000-12-01 -2.5562195509
2001-01-01 -2.6879871158
2001-02-01 -3.9865146494
2001-03-01 -4.1998425971
2001-04-01 -4.9557305433
2001-05-01 -3.1974890595
2001-06-01 -4.9326703606
2001-07-01 -4.4353665486
2001-08-01 -3.6594491976
2001-09-01 -5.4496165432
2001-10-01 -4.0789536268
2001-11-01 -5.0210248508
2001-12-01 -3.1463364094
2002-01-01 -1.3165375229
2002-02-01 -0.7662029129
2002-03-01 -0.3329112370
2002-04-01 1.4999109313
2002-05-01 0.4229756569
2002-06-01 0.0480469838
2002-07-01 -1.4972087752
2002-08-01 -0.9746987136
2002-09-01 -2.1666912438
2002-10-01 -1.9050601942
2002-11-01 -0.3424163308
2002-12-01 -2.8121326621
2003-01-01 0.8094015580
2003-02-01 -1.2966555531
2003-03-01 -1.0660417477
2003-04-01 -3.2444778329
2003-05-01 -0.7894459673
2003-06-01 0.2829086572
2003-07-01 0.7068974963
2003-08-01 -0.0398185668
2003-09-01 2.6407216691
2003-10-01 1.5964843427
2003-11-01 2.1270558121
2003-12-01 1.5021427537
2004-01-01 1.3041119821
2004-02-01 2.5925100152
2004-03-01 3.3440579699
2004-04-01 1.5693664084
2004-05-01 2.6114704000
2004-06-01 1.4965696391
2004-07-01 2.3420945345
2004-08-01 1.8233768510
2004-09-01 1.6334825681
2004-10-01 2.6571783067
2004-11-01 1.9731487230
2004-12-01 3.2519485889
2005-01-01 2.4416307865
2005-02-01 1.9880533922
2005-03-01 0.3990424607
2005-04-01 2.3977072730
2005-05-01 0.1722800123
2005-06-01 0.7785175305
2005-07-01 -0.2213207309
2005-08-01 2.7864352175
2005-09-01 1.2201579050
2005-10-01 2.5652256414
2005-11-01 2.9983033330
2005-12-01 1.6919636908
2006-01-01 1.8381545997
2006-02-01 0.7764613039
2006-03-01 1.7389729897
2006-04-01 0.5169383416
2006-05-01 1.4335886649
2006-06-01 0.4979848011
2006-07-01 -0.3008327203
2006-08-01 0.9656633110
2006-09-01 -0.9921155402
2006-10-01 -1.6351908362
2006-11-01 -0.4934839282
2006-12-01 2.0655385462
2007-01-01 -1.2756492888
2007-02-01 1.0241742537
2007-03-01 1.6634179848
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2011-03-01 3.2481892238
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2026-01-01 0.0358283778
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2026-06-01 -0.2698085601
2026-07-01 0.7418076785
2026-08-01 0.6591953064
2026-09-01 1.2398686925

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