Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Lagging Subcomponent of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Lagging Subcomponent of GDP
Series ID BBKMCLA
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-04-01
Last Updated 2026-06-01 7:32 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The lagging subcomponent of the cycle expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
ave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 5.526247781180514000
1960-02-01 -2.908305917920965400
1960-03-01 -6.810003919747283000
1960-04-01 -3.069087272008685000
1960-05-01 -4.215473477872914000
1960-06-01 -5.339851408263120500
1960-07-01 -3.765588569790703700
1960-08-01 -3.571691803628845000
1960-09-01 -3.912575532465254500
1960-10-01 -3.846502032068981300
1960-11-01 -7.535018156594313500
1960-12-01 -7.629421885464739000
1961-01-01 -2.678317205809473300
1961-02-01 -2.188855856249500400
1961-03-01 1.792325992428086000
1961-04-01 4.196871909448207000
1961-05-01 4.281512659033006000
1961-06-01 4.632789047702720000
1961-07-01 3.820026117566080000
1961-08-01 5.315678487756399000
1961-09-01 1.262284489976589000
1961-10-01 5.269990223163415000
1961-11-01 5.035711989619587000
1961-12-01 3.146807923699495000
1962-01-01 -1.655665659376034400
1962-02-01 5.180551875547586000
1962-03-01 1.699896167257608700
1962-04-01 0.207834721874081300
1962-05-01 -0.946971373423342000
1962-06-01 -1.822255304779241000
1962-07-01 1.016449754388202300
1962-08-01 -0.547932588204058800
1962-09-01 1.451828942716364900
1962-10-01 -1.022722038585891700
1962-11-01 0.408180853158216840
1962-12-01 -1.058822013183745100
1963-01-01 0.660290784224099600
1963-02-01 3.665471794522337400
1963-03-01 1.596878363572991300
1963-04-01 3.338321553825531800
1963-05-01 2.456359934608540300
1963-06-01 1.112657454723542200
1963-07-01 0.043056347226086596
1963-08-01 0.232731629873128320
1963-09-01 1.519779185881344500
1963-10-01 2.530344059869303700
1963-11-01 0.048813275682480756
1963-12-01 0.722336183411616800
1964-01-01 1.994913374261138000
1964-02-01 2.235313254594133400
1964-03-01 0.969158335076391700
1964-04-01 3.041028707002835000
1964-05-01 1.690908203613484800
1964-06-01 -0.069769085919145420
1964-07-01 3.021914623153129800
1964-08-01 0.544582888280378500
1964-09-01 1.513694418935560800
1964-10-01 -2.791327545140063600
1964-11-01 6.891605862972330000
1964-12-01 4.692276274366582500
1965-01-01 2.646924343854695000
1965-02-01 1.918409449531237200
1965-03-01 4.803702470699686000
1965-04-01 1.232108094519925000
1965-05-01 1.517180043395822700
1965-06-01 1.244131243674457400
1965-07-01 3.200147143849059000
1965-08-01 -0.043190066253597975
1965-09-01 0.409184225033524250
1965-10-01 3.103443984016303500
1965-11-01 3.133744547713566000
1965-12-01 4.224689100062787000
1966-01-01 3.455402801538422600
1966-02-01 4.133890764903109000
1966-03-01 4.760687305176313400
1966-04-01 -0.059899835952395130
1966-05-01 -0.455039365462814760
1966-06-01 1.066314693017160000
1966-07-01 0.441961560083395930
1966-08-01 0.756364447884807700
1966-09-01 1.112568449026156300
1966-10-01 -0.166000689120771230
1966-11-01 -3.640938701482441300
1966-12-01 -2.445798358680440000
1967-01-01 -1.878922866706470000
1967-02-01 -4.930773919646373000
1967-03-01 -2.526158435606792000
1967-04-01 -1.874091187123266000
1967-05-01 -2.865346015251333700
1967-06-01 -0.709402403153137900
1967-07-01 -2.038026678687103000
1967-08-01 3.531176962397673400
1967-09-01 -0.535455161360578100
1967-10-01 -0.179716057910622280
1967-11-01 5.665337892872784000
1967-12-01 3.752805922921290400
1968-01-01 -1.758236695907101200
1968-02-01 0.073948496825256600
1968-03-01 0.820501958934081500
1968-04-01 -0.473723774732472200
1968-05-01 2.172460035952055600
1968-06-01 0.057273568844257494
1968-07-01 0.083064762369227140
1968-08-01 -2.180144181240008600
1968-09-01 1.574866136640911000
1968-10-01 1.995265845043519000
1968-11-01 2.308150556588761200
1968-12-01 -0.718585172830698600
1969-01-01 0.649830452538490700
1969-02-01 0.982678589155888700
1969-03-01 2.495262016682179000
1969-04-01 0.289246299161653950
1969-05-01 -1.290580182882682000
1969-06-01 0.529451841559575400
1969-07-01 0.375568859005208100
1969-08-01 0.427273151625446400
1969-09-01 -0.268676156312863850
1969-10-01 -0.535410359655018800
1969-11-01 -4.823029033045384000
1969-12-01 -2.428580973316379200
1970-01-01 -6.181433764402937000
1970-02-01 -2.487569787654883000
1970-03-01 -3.838312888240076000
1970-04-01 -3.748485334105585500
1970-05-01 -1.826672230751819300
1970-06-01 -1.853375594178907600
1970-07-01 -1.044808089056247200
1970-08-01 -3.692898318412148700
1970-09-01 -4.207935813597910000
1970-10-01 -7.720214644456858000
1970-11-01 -5.077867846430729000
1970-12-01 6.174066137768872000
1971-01-01 1.454355955035224700
1971-02-01 0.007308339577812152
1971-03-01 -0.282751984071432040
1971-04-01 0.677240866727870600
1971-05-01 1.237352349260408800
1971-06-01 1.776948909457501000
1971-07-01 -2.284206658202158000
1971-08-01 -0.674505083058429000
1971-09-01 3.411714864159953300
1971-10-01 0.788011645681133400
1971-11-01 2.312240814862166700
1971-12-01 3.479348762268174200
1972-01-01 4.774910260448947000
1972-02-01 2.022026620167581000
1972-03-01 2.813082242302308000
1972-04-01 2.464934960471149000
1972-05-01 1.043250706980812600
1972-06-01 1.250468674304004800
1972-07-01 -0.864177384650103600
1972-08-01 4.889676064461191000
1972-09-01 3.989924280658503000
1972-10-01 4.589207437578859000
1972-11-01 5.804057150446487500
1972-12-01 4.907244090652274000
1973-01-01 4.792950129975320000
1973-02-01 5.346329096583318000
1973-03-01 2.221924710187733500
1973-04-01 0.332318715366455000
1973-05-01 1.876169367240142700
1973-06-01 1.150652066833946800
1973-07-01 1.053965879062077800
1973-08-01 0.334435432965709900
1973-09-01 1.262389306744094800
1973-10-01 5.067756445229459000
1973-11-01 3.545083419932664600
1973-12-01 -0.903321380620928500
1974-01-01 -0.569819543506174400
1974-02-01 -0.751534961553646500
1974-03-01 -0.222647705350222050
1974-04-01 -1.971527385217753700
1974-05-01 0.985779830941089000
1974-06-01 -1.936663757730562800
1974-07-01 -1.552587114591818400
1974-08-01 -3.743553253042183000
1974-09-01 -3.270449808066477400
1974-10-01 -5.006299206432039000
1974-11-01 -11.718357925069302000
1974-12-01 -16.603322774240205000
1975-01-01 -8.968085649064160000
1975-02-01 -10.634800721115300000
1975-03-01 -10.009525336940369000
1975-04-01 -1.106260010456213200
1975-05-01 -2.181115620307687000
1975-06-01 1.094275506723561000
1975-07-01 4.196444823973304000
1975-08-01 3.129368851045610000
1975-09-01 3.739982031792952000
1975-10-01 1.363955560994745000
1975-11-01 0.079875347219597800
1975-12-01 4.105605441521281500
1976-01-01 5.271444025644985500
1976-02-01 3.312133132219720000
1976-03-01 1.346734305613102700
1976-04-01 1.104364358532656800
1976-05-01 1.503384906079663000
1976-06-01 1.046992306014198300
1976-07-01 1.248314323426676000
1976-08-01 0.561127403992399000
1976-09-01 0.543743873447018000
1976-10-01 -0.761519780808894600
1976-11-01 3.475501755696564400
1976-12-01 4.541910205738600000
1977-01-01 -1.097929828220935300
1977-02-01 5.902827823158974000
1977-03-01 5.314742880915834000
1977-04-01 2.990057430116600300
1977-05-01 2.306866464263350300
1977-06-01 2.693991872149746000
1977-07-01 0.608337239284622800
1977-08-01 1.101731713271978200
1977-09-01 0.441709379202638600
1977-10-01 0.464968197507212970
1977-11-01 1.197009099009261700
1977-12-01 1.577958189078336300
1978-01-01 -6.217502765533108500
1978-02-01 3.752909417713027600
1978-03-01 5.750597795260012000
1978-04-01 7.126779177320779000
1978-05-01 2.001851899868306400
1978-06-01 2.936658983201135600
1978-07-01 -0.407542302801452400
1978-08-01 2.656561513038368000
1978-09-01 1.253515282574955800
1978-10-01 2.930286539966656000
1978-11-01 3.004878673327942500
1978-12-01 1.727098415621487200
1979-01-01 -1.922405572733968000
1979-02-01 0.800215866182818500
1979-03-01 4.496206560021100500
1979-04-01 -4.808714077644018500
1979-05-01 5.494468187268827000
1979-06-01 0.102702434742914970
1979-07-01 -0.326749657113201860
1979-08-01 -2.273850632897227400
1979-09-01 -1.158999931914382900
1979-10-01 1.317815568603249800
1979-11-01 -1.056607158921724500
1979-12-01 -0.243365375478151000
1980-01-01 1.228447403527312700
1980-02-01 -1.557184273282229000
1980-03-01 -6.485931654424663000
1980-04-01 -10.457403458264778000
1980-05-01 -11.505222320183400000
1980-06-01 -6.943688630007998000
1980-07-01 -3.535669299112806500
1980-08-01 0.894588782107296500
1980-09-01 6.308587761535554000
1980-10-01 5.545287923437898000
1980-11-01 3.600395601947371300
1980-12-01 1.993676275939772100
1981-01-01 -0.708020718925205600
1981-02-01 -1.853182446027672500
1981-03-01 -0.835590239447764200
1981-04-01 -0.138824606464940520
1981-05-01 -0.714858518874488000
1981-06-01 -0.700109706935125300
1981-07-01 0.292166721833333200
1981-08-01 -2.327867697031673600
1981-09-01 -4.069938241842179000
1981-10-01 -6.598104294933395000
1981-11-01 -7.158654723711281000
1981-12-01 -8.141223986305246000
1982-01-01 -9.221281379406850000
1982-02-01 3.871354674168094000
1982-03-01 -4.356014155793503500
1982-04-01 -5.104304625394957000
1982-05-01 -2.941635669858115000
1982-06-01 -3.288563715258206000
1982-07-01 -3.447562119876026000
1982-08-01 -5.922552581862165000
1982-09-01 -3.626904373773517000
1982-10-01 -5.986049769111242000
1982-11-01 -3.367738194477328600
1982-12-01 -2.364065966312310000
1983-01-01 5.295881507343547000
1983-02-01 -1.057511553103927200
1983-03-01 3.710007973865393700
1983-04-01 4.120494988289661500
1983-05-01 4.302750953823158000
1983-06-01 5.964583223120842000
1983-07-01 4.687984530892615000
1983-08-01 3.544030866094927600
1983-09-01 6.254805614319252000
1983-10-01 4.248596176005063000
1983-11-01 3.891158485121469000
1983-12-01 3.853681313742913300
1984-01-01 5.394090399894253000
1984-02-01 3.686696990774248400
1984-03-01 1.287035706806053400
1984-04-01 1.550578973663898200
1984-05-01 2.292738788795251300
1984-06-01 1.171704666008846800
1984-07-01 -0.122381032090088080
1984-08-01 -0.284992317388778400
1984-09-01 -2.342165330772845600
1984-10-01 0.632832216491239300
1984-11-01 0.884685501582557700
1984-12-01 -0.759000349668413100
1985-01-01 -1.463568421845429000
1985-02-01 -0.667788966778582700
1985-03-01 1.253762039537244900
1985-04-01 -1.474420907279323300
1985-05-01 0.134715230946800900
1985-06-01 -3.056906718365447000
1985-07-01 -1.436227993275866400
1985-08-01 1.359647329173049500
1985-09-01 -0.413761469668528560
1985-10-01 -0.836738261489518400
1985-11-01 1.085126935979711300
1985-12-01 0.021345896049109636
1986-01-01 2.645354022675296500
1986-02-01 -3.467502475142350400
1986-03-01 -3.661441725343796500
1986-04-01 0.830610873537252400
1986-05-01 -1.192214268062186300
1986-06-01 -0.738276845197720700
1986-07-01 1.017178942025250600
1986-08-01 0.124201953977885080
1986-09-01 1.796376430359011500
1986-10-01 -0.758208367896662000
1986-11-01 0.010988547523032478
1986-12-01 3.229178952928544000
1987-01-01 -1.889250902583659200
1987-02-01 5.559209521375232000
1987-03-01 0.734214746129035800
1987-04-01 1.446027682465287100
1987-05-01 1.887119958144231500
1987-06-01 2.490332834363613000
1987-07-01 3.432485672061667000
1987-08-01 0.967879936346347400
1987-09-01 3.294535029564568000
1987-10-01 3.370144700273281400
1987-11-01 1.152808513796968800
1987-12-01 2.083024809426171400
1988-01-01 -0.767571023558272000
1988-02-01 2.108506114470385400
1988-03-01 2.169512484360473600
1988-04-01 1.499201206917185200
1988-05-01 0.209866216191897850
1988-06-01 2.002236672547522000
1988-07-01 -0.145762985782625780
1988-08-01 0.502819316071976200
1988-09-01 0.846795062703770600
1988-10-01 1.223343696542838100
1988-11-01 1.314020097795513400
1988-12-01 2.785684072157794200
1989-01-01 1.033473529086638000
1989-02-01 -2.142224636719358700
1989-03-01 -0.075621698410088000
1989-04-01 0.832106680460712700
1989-05-01 -1.930123384449210000
1989-06-01 -1.896002068743800000
1989-07-01 -4.275349713060637500
1989-08-01 1.933644863549619000
1989-09-01 -2.254470332014258000
1989-10-01 -2.006083844699671400
1989-11-01 0.668366870755536400
1989-12-01 0.016398822296840133
1990-01-01 0.243868515237884830
1990-02-01 2.694349239164859000
1990-03-01 1.178838892769832000
1990-04-01 -2.820940922641743700
1990-05-01 -0.007974464187434369
1990-06-01 0.190969421332001320
1990-07-01 -1.612786966041885900
1990-08-01 0.367980826570568200
1990-09-01 -2.389444936825397400
1990-10-01 -2.656527875103322300
1990-11-01 -6.218249635231413000
1990-12-01 -4.208276098395806000
1991-01-01 -4.682786510391987000
1991-02-01 -4.622354125712707000
1991-03-01 -4.730935781962733000
1991-04-01 0.890021930408271200
1991-05-01 1.106530149008035500
1991-06-01 0.697168550614387000
1991-07-01 1.734341561402849700
1991-08-01 0.210782406580116570
1991-09-01 1.633260660758073300
1991-10-01 -0.560537092648758100
1991-11-01 -1.352900245169193200
1991-12-01 -3.407814497363561600
1992-01-01 -0.641692633852682000
1992-02-01 1.061135116363028500
1992-03-01 2.909260232815390000
1992-04-01 2.111337255337621500
1992-05-01 0.415614670207120700
1992-06-01 1.200923410326705200
1992-07-01 1.916566089851517000
1992-08-01 -2.356586639962192000
1992-09-01 0.912653429177298500
1992-10-01 1.392410853652278100
1992-11-01 0.651365662496960500
1992-12-01 1.512922697017085000
1993-01-01 1.569671994946758400
1993-02-01 0.876389099690522000
1993-03-01 -0.731168036742653800
1993-04-01 0.868599163119398700
1993-05-01 0.040170687073963430
1993-06-01 -0.191148028621818570
1993-07-01 -0.634233062729883400
1993-08-01 -0.418943902353311700
1993-09-01 1.615191791745887100
1993-10-01 2.240794005150649000
1993-11-01 1.277207493485914600
1993-12-01 1.973702268909455200
1994-01-01 0.546008988336572200
1994-02-01 1.051257610678855100
1994-03-01 5.004597223142487000
1994-04-01 2.029680797467902300
1994-05-01 2.596329693978842000
1994-06-01 2.865135921761155000
1994-07-01 1.129301678968460200
1994-08-01 3.533462814505645000
1994-09-01 1.605218489440922700
1994-10-01 2.654186181990909000
1994-11-01 3.292340013541390000
1994-12-01 3.706362789601958400
1995-01-01 0.820198137903441000
1995-02-01 -0.412698797424609300
1995-03-01 -0.466177064033609800
1995-04-01 -1.538992485058965800
1995-05-01 -0.135688724913904350
1995-06-01 0.301659459087924850
1995-07-01 -2.160411604223660300
1995-08-01 2.683351873428242700
1995-09-01 1.394292464030092900
1995-10-01 -1.085769196069407800
1995-11-01 0.057247714760009070
1995-12-01 0.721501676620155000
1996-01-01 -3.461942731739974500
1996-02-01 2.193918246298046400
1996-03-01 0.636342294046916900
1996-04-01 1.793876014682943600
1996-05-01 2.197750527180013000
1996-06-01 1.550605936985913500
1996-07-01 0.199471987098125860
1996-08-01 1.078706304878474900
1996-09-01 1.393167724475238300
1996-10-01 0.545371621650867200
1996-11-01 2.103842817778884400
1996-12-01 0.293781871971086400
1997-01-01 0.296397923212241100
1997-02-01 3.891702437908582000
1997-03-01 1.571562785132552400
1997-04-01 1.179632575471808000
1997-05-01 0.441230118041762900
1997-06-01 1.449198325122475000
1997-07-01 2.462425583156756700
1997-08-01 1.441150339823260100
1997-09-01 2.009311555365309600
1997-10-01 1.086140556371510300
1997-11-01 1.599390337262429900
1997-12-01 0.249108674086131100
1998-01-01 0.088581518634237410
1998-02-01 0.514609253943546100
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1998-05-01 0.223638376839927430
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1998-08-01 2.586383068675555600
1998-09-01 0.024009165180834173
1998-10-01 0.739399171312186900
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1999-07-01 1.368197793763829900
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2000-01-01 0.963174756752943700
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2000-04-01 1.533803832330029100
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2010-04-01 2.163061705370396000
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2011-01-01 1.646895962248057200
2011-02-01 1.208628862240359400
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2012-02-01 1.026868348048123500
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2017-07-01 0.064053543123529120
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2018-03-01 1.810417589947584700
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