Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Lagging Subcomponent of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Lagging Subcomponent of GDP
Series ID BBKMCLA
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-06-01
Last Updated 2026-08-03 7:32 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The lagging subcomponent of the cycle expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
ave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 5.5332798233471605000
1960-02-01 -2.9127492523402947000
1960-03-01 -6.8249675846005630000
1960-04-01 -3.0653650942862470000
1960-05-01 -4.2174663512047506000
1960-06-01 -5.3380345633022840000
1960-07-01 -3.7700210947993710000
1960-08-01 -3.5746902951737805000
1960-09-01 -3.9049934411312983000
1960-10-01 -3.8498330491849540000
1960-11-01 -7.5259287274932545000
1960-12-01 -7.6345956079424180000
1961-01-01 -2.6871884331849336000
1961-02-01 -2.2052972403510760000
1961-03-01 1.7886504639976946000
1961-04-01 4.1932276612113110000
1961-05-01 4.2793096622898200000
1961-06-01 4.6303582655131550000
1961-07-01 3.8175972766828576000
1961-08-01 5.3147258911132030000
1961-09-01 1.2548095400012826000
1961-10-01 5.2628265403997120000
1961-11-01 5.0248964536090880000
1961-12-01 3.1450086194539564000
1962-01-01 -1.6652535278844955000
1962-02-01 5.1940814318724280000
1962-03-01 1.6892808015664820000
1962-04-01 0.1991865858091861600
1962-05-01 -0.9485246555242673000
1962-06-01 -1.8239071497095776000
1962-07-01 1.0106652885693255000
1962-08-01 -0.5429795393778991000
1962-09-01 1.4535103998406296000
1962-10-01 -1.0354187849226058000
1962-11-01 0.3998548325179826000
1962-12-01 -1.0651656770473128000
1963-01-01 0.6659960243897179000
1963-02-01 3.6667006739419830000
1963-03-01 1.5916794794801306000
1963-04-01 3.3446512665824240000
1963-05-01 2.4565581454976373000
1963-06-01 1.1067804812350140000
1963-07-01 0.0387442661024537050
1963-08-01 0.2251888944598959600
1963-09-01 1.5152682709038907000
1963-10-01 2.5326477289097777000
1963-11-01 0.0530114885678814800
1963-12-01 0.7108107094917896000
1964-01-01 1.9912536581262852000
1964-02-01 2.2319858841670910000
1964-03-01 0.9726416100261650000
1964-04-01 3.0402389738993802000
1964-05-01 1.6866733407728760000
1964-06-01 -0.0793225342016146700
1964-07-01 3.0186539048343580000
1964-08-01 0.5436811907283422000
1964-09-01 1.5233580296032772000
1964-10-01 -2.7943018380048064000
1964-11-01 6.9081349352046240000
1964-12-01 4.6915451725151880000
1965-01-01 2.6455958527375090000
1965-02-01 1.9103095526551872000
1965-03-01 4.8098583199674510000
1965-04-01 1.2363189269809394000
1965-05-01 1.5136804519349705000
1965-06-01 1.2466836896987181000
1965-07-01 3.2003605967413950000
1965-08-01 -0.0554415404940081300
1965-09-01 0.3907609375969081000
1965-10-01 3.0916382321036180000
1965-11-01 3.1291700691538438000
1965-12-01 4.2248927468896970000
1966-01-01 3.4610437789008790000
1966-02-01 4.1399619697764890000
1966-03-01 4.7714827222582200000
1966-04-01 -0.0544739849199559000
1966-05-01 -0.4445622387514107000
1966-06-01 1.0729186825758648000
1966-07-01 0.4504937796607418300
1966-08-01 0.7655545110189331000
1966-09-01 1.1218491927052054000
1966-10-01 -0.1551319600041582000
1966-11-01 -3.6458217371408710000
1966-12-01 -2.4500581546105910000
1967-01-01 -1.8909227526143375000
1967-02-01 -4.9382123448063050000
1967-03-01 -2.5305744476691410000
1967-04-01 -1.8779111864914820000
1967-05-01 -2.8709402036326823000
1967-06-01 -0.7110492043665373000
1967-07-01 -2.0442944423104230000
1967-08-01 3.5427515265710245000
1967-09-01 -0.5422123244099913000
1967-10-01 -0.1765238828038263600
1967-11-01 5.6751712617221260000
1967-12-01 3.7572372839226820000
1968-01-01 -1.7709754304329073000
1968-02-01 0.0701132316592356000
1968-03-01 0.8113848754737362000
1968-04-01 -0.4733208889535097000
1968-05-01 2.1760976178920260000
1968-06-01 0.0527435908716481900
1968-07-01 0.0806466665434551600
1968-08-01 -2.1867273016928253000
1968-09-01 1.5737113925523996000
1968-10-01 2.0002145850457995000
1968-11-01 2.3111139058672630000
1968-12-01 -0.7140420214876778000
1969-01-01 0.6446598131382542000
1969-02-01 0.9847711614783860000
1969-03-01 2.5052994923687875000
1969-04-01 0.2925959148109217000
1969-05-01 -1.2923354435756242000
1969-06-01 0.5402078360332148000
1969-07-01 0.3821916656193883000
1969-08-01 0.4313650006173962000
1969-09-01 -0.2697318581523725500
1969-10-01 -0.5272248713865034000
1969-11-01 -4.8238550687026000000
1969-12-01 -2.4213177342864616000
1970-01-01 -6.1839600545285430000
1970-02-01 -2.4898066108126010000
1970-03-01 -3.8349205514808100000
1970-04-01 -3.7491575123659944000
1970-05-01 -1.8346072040124520000
1970-06-01 -1.8619757764235910000
1970-07-01 -1.0477917507882017000
1970-08-01 -3.6995746378359944000
1970-09-01 -4.2156172509636525000
1970-10-01 -7.7326788696379560000
1970-11-01 -5.0796737950729470000
1970-12-01 6.1721730564099690000
1971-01-01 1.4392296218897793000
1971-02-01 -0.0029496565045087427
1971-03-01 -0.2923759617554135000
1971-04-01 0.6682587347983779000
1971-05-01 1.2354167838301462000
1971-06-01 1.7744152701738510000
1971-07-01 -2.2951164713998025000
1971-08-01 -0.6802609812767052000
1971-09-01 3.4185188357223000000
1971-10-01 0.7823200924153662000
1971-11-01 2.3070309165863314000
1971-12-01 3.4673415332220220000
1972-01-01 4.7669526417217660000
1972-02-01 2.0187300825596320000
1972-03-01 2.8047696344895710000
1972-04-01 2.4596041109031064000
1972-05-01 1.0390719202289291000
1972-06-01 1.2474068665741551000
1972-07-01 -0.8735738650399455000
1972-08-01 4.8895274446114350000
1972-09-01 3.9830752253979553000
1972-10-01 4.5825134816828910000
1972-11-01 5.8044163232419160000
1972-12-01 4.9022150143413510000
1973-01-01 4.7940223279303810000
1973-02-01 5.3595207941292830000
1973-03-01 2.2311364429312010000
1973-04-01 0.3407179649550459700
1973-05-01 1.8846603256233259000
1973-06-01 1.1628725016345207000
1973-07-01 1.0592416612808042000
1973-08-01 0.3550973352485738000
1973-09-01 1.2655803201967680000
1973-10-01 5.0849836541627550000
1973-11-01 3.5551959284948156000
1973-12-01 -0.8863839712385159000
1974-01-01 -0.5519286083918409000
1974-02-01 -0.7403593241818461000
1974-03-01 -0.2134161782960889400
1974-04-01 -1.9676435037041768000
1974-05-01 0.9914741692780500000
1974-06-01 -1.9350522110761470000
1974-07-01 -1.5375921027775468000
1974-08-01 -3.7360759578491970000
1974-09-01 -3.2479813845075616000
1974-10-01 -4.9917435927735370000
1974-11-01 -11.7162157062993480000
1974-12-01 -16.6202289992656420000
1975-01-01 -8.9700134171053260000
1975-02-01 -10.6540706160559110000
1975-03-01 -10.0236114031055980000
1975-04-01 -1.1096636604232006000
1975-05-01 -2.2006115061937270000
1975-06-01 1.0860542378818367000
1975-07-01 4.1951016156145196000
1975-08-01 3.1275592542561490000
1975-09-01 3.7441186629104680000
1975-10-01 1.3620491455149586000
1975-11-01 0.0716158672873158500
1975-12-01 4.1062185068656020000
1976-01-01 5.2647450644202600000
1976-02-01 3.3066340332474375000
1976-03-01 1.3439075693969382000
1976-04-01 1.1050967353171140000
1976-05-01 1.5020034485921896000
1976-06-01 1.0463111088490367000
1976-07-01 1.2500371389517940000
1976-08-01 0.5565026510662804000
1976-09-01 0.5378176094982163000
1976-10-01 -0.7653506178994176000
1976-11-01 3.4753608493277386000
1976-12-01 4.5423963625924320000
1977-01-01 -1.1045576268784287000
1977-02-01 5.9106987156389140000
1977-03-01 5.3189489782984960000
1977-04-01 2.9890020586839460000
1977-05-01 2.3075124846960886000
1977-06-01 2.6938552682334800000
1977-07-01 0.6027817002919713000
1977-08-01 1.0996139597032640000
1977-09-01 0.4425370089922575000
1977-10-01 0.4617475803791218400
1977-11-01 1.2010519429543982000
1977-12-01 1.5824218667817829000
1978-01-01 -6.2190135356444080000
1978-02-01 3.7507868842268963000
1978-03-01 5.7446649676345740000
1978-04-01 7.1189629519327150000
1978-05-01 2.0002887963802440000
1978-06-01 2.9400533681049357000
1978-07-01 -0.4054302683850571400
1978-08-01 2.6650160715569560000
1978-09-01 1.2578238870661760000
1978-10-01 2.9373030905022133000
1978-11-01 3.0155938780398115000
1978-12-01 1.7402343960623077000
1979-01-01 -1.9113012005592376000
1979-02-01 0.8115148047320764000
1979-03-01 4.5068366229765500000
1979-04-01 -4.8088066084523500000
1979-05-01 5.5097328029059165000
1979-06-01 0.1114530019593731200
1979-07-01 -0.3165996531185200000
1979-08-01 -2.2790428235920250000
1979-09-01 -1.1600276462114334000
1979-10-01 1.3315673779598332000
1979-11-01 -1.0516615572721824000
1979-12-01 -0.2301292006019794700
1980-01-01 1.2435925781094743000
1980-02-01 -1.5376011804478438000
1980-03-01 -6.4596131790493425000
1980-04-01 -10.4419040445396810000
1980-05-01 -11.5096858986992880000
1980-06-01 -6.9677108778924300000
1980-07-01 -3.5648536339688580000
1980-08-01 0.8798519601920617000
1980-09-01 6.3076478026011160000
1980-10-01 5.5402327936812150000
1980-11-01 3.6046340314071794000
1980-12-01 2.0029438226090060000
1981-01-01 -0.7163357180994537000
1981-02-01 -1.8487750926114588000
1981-03-01 -0.8297704618085809000
1981-04-01 -0.1364622849743460000
1981-05-01 -0.7039755406845961000
1981-06-01 -0.6907354269903373000
1981-07-01 0.2959496120513264700
1981-08-01 -2.3315149508775987000
1981-09-01 -4.0607252087420470000
1981-10-01 -6.5959021217890290000
1981-11-01 -7.1577274759955480000
1981-12-01 -8.1495716211727800000
1982-01-01 -9.2489198701166440000
1982-02-01 3.8827383957246230000
1982-03-01 -4.3671804844485770000
1982-04-01 -5.1138193214841110000
1982-05-01 -2.9484836803729997000
1982-06-01 -3.2813229994526036000
1982-07-01 -3.4554902327802055000
1982-08-01 -5.9315485148333700000
1982-09-01 -3.6421684309210090000
1982-10-01 -6.0096739578467200000
1982-11-01 -3.3900009899822370000
1982-12-01 -2.3833658196698470000
1983-01-01 5.2900348699529310000
1983-02-01 -1.0716283078885895000
1983-03-01 3.6965663717071697000
1983-04-01 4.1147976646979770000
1983-05-01 4.2907113658954920000
1983-06-01 5.9601343343893145000
1983-07-01 4.6876695034287690000
1983-08-01 3.5513363272641780000
1983-09-01 6.2633301300379640000
1983-10-01 4.2482907209742630000
1983-11-01 3.8931886220047685000
1983-12-01 3.8554466936934553000
1984-01-01 5.3888506810226630000
1984-02-01 3.6971314695101722000
1984-03-01 1.2924834736192357000
1984-04-01 1.5488999447847884000
1984-05-01 2.2964650067674380000
1984-06-01 1.1750237976809486000
1984-07-01 -0.1096510749196032300
1984-08-01 -0.2754479575195482000
1984-09-01 -2.3462387464935213000
1984-10-01 0.6388882072989976000
1984-11-01 0.8795517523918230000
1984-12-01 -0.7518109574682736000
1985-01-01 -1.4749925501449070000
1985-02-01 -0.6667228664548416000
1985-03-01 1.2598383197324021000
1985-04-01 -1.4809026471932498000
1985-05-01 0.1339399865733019200
1985-06-01 -3.0614898562230826000
1985-07-01 -1.4404829113218132000
1985-08-01 1.3573367436857358000
1985-09-01 -0.4168966222185790400
1985-10-01 -0.8291025270617178000
1985-11-01 1.0914866146678800000
1985-12-01 0.0165823182593188800
1986-01-01 2.6502960933350450000
1986-02-01 -3.4699906715730924000
1986-03-01 -3.6719096045996604000
1986-04-01 0.8268322999753072000
1986-05-01 -1.1942623976766895000
1986-06-01 -0.7383721480432426000
1986-07-01 1.0213057270020918000
1986-08-01 0.1211314321171127900
1986-09-01 1.7940633533084307000
1986-10-01 -0.7526991010907087000
1986-11-01 0.0144861381058801160
1986-12-01 3.2259275637567780000
1987-01-01 -1.8822299630047430000
1987-02-01 5.5605929881116390000
1987-03-01 0.7301624431906170000
1987-04-01 1.4517295265559280000
1987-05-01 1.8877459344040421000
1987-06-01 2.4883619608013388000
1987-07-01 3.4301327547209195000
1987-08-01 0.9658101848304270000
1987-09-01 3.3027248875818380000
1987-10-01 3.3854566624438367000
1987-11-01 1.1636328384640820000
1987-12-01 2.0888665185918494000
1988-01-01 -0.7751555727391042000
1988-02-01 2.1118399125851175000
1988-03-01 2.1657418660036290000
1988-04-01 1.5037154431365785000
1988-05-01 0.2102972231329201000
1988-06-01 2.0076484996296773000
1988-07-01 -0.1401150029220744300
1988-08-01 0.5053034368316459000
1988-09-01 0.8521096110988099000
1988-10-01 1.2180792806081766000
1988-11-01 1.3211092445361570000
1988-12-01 2.7928711760428846000
1989-01-01 1.0323976265855912000
1989-02-01 -2.1359329307162090000
1989-03-01 -0.0644252376976490300
1989-04-01 0.8468243436135645000
1989-05-01 -1.9244283032910727000
1989-06-01 -1.8982811907103025000
1989-07-01 -4.2799590097025110000
1989-08-01 1.9344987394060564000
1989-09-01 -2.2625937472678060000
1989-10-01 -2.0052243323252250000
1989-11-01 0.6772804019846661000
1989-12-01 0.0146920517709594870
1990-01-01 0.2477189141980200000
1990-02-01 2.8038392003873660000
1990-03-01 1.1149915291416803000
1990-04-01 -2.8111217609052450000
1990-05-01 0.0166666953132510350
1990-06-01 0.1948563711627791000
1990-07-01 -1.6313138412529742000
1990-08-01 0.4068538318822255700
1990-09-01 -2.3485869331282970000
1990-10-01 -2.6796842131400390000
1990-11-01 -6.2025887361054140000
1990-12-01 -4.1921052830185180000
1991-01-01 -4.6910286304430880000
1991-02-01 -4.6359482285570300000
1991-03-01 -4.7813227375469580000
1991-04-01 0.8970945132243602000
1991-05-01 1.1129064508959399000
1991-06-01 0.7153621659329278000
1991-07-01 1.7425176403796327000
1991-08-01 0.2336243830640633800
1991-09-01 1.5992083893777609000
1991-10-01 -0.5518938844821819000
1991-11-01 -1.2928479766225607000
1991-12-01 -3.4528746498471214000
1992-01-01 -0.7351734057218990000
1992-02-01 1.0624702007002007000
1992-03-01 3.0465918726423320000
1992-04-01 2.0531284501290650000
1992-05-01 0.3423551487013324000
1992-06-01 1.2997881738885304000
1992-07-01 1.8681989149739575000
1992-08-01 -2.4445467859889756000
1992-09-01 0.9942860294784015000
1992-10-01 1.3933157941196623000
1992-11-01 0.6012401249134885000
1992-12-01 1.5508530216152356000
1993-01-01 1.4046564034281357000
1993-02-01 0.9330579327336423000
1993-03-01 -0.5700123847922643000
1993-04-01 0.7868757251592058000
1993-05-01 -0.0042522457386927950
1993-06-01 -0.1011745790709080900
1993-07-01 -0.6888701810770624000
1993-08-01 -0.4057718442150987600
1993-09-01 1.6372405703148847000
1993-10-01 2.1822226524318180000
1993-11-01 1.3332602609312190000
1993-12-01 1.9229435172981708000
1994-01-01 0.4583375918312467000
1994-02-01 1.0555474868530537000
1994-03-01 5.0122445408410250000
1994-04-01 2.0230631064451530000
1994-05-01 2.5928557537892662000
1994-06-01 2.8689397804622450000
1994-07-01 1.1203630419458124000
1994-08-01 3.5446697408357150000
1994-09-01 1.5768309974023258000
1994-10-01 2.6583322657422195000
1994-11-01 3.2941864386012596000
1994-12-01 3.7299157336140474000
1995-01-01 0.7947161833382437000
1995-02-01 -0.4047199516897116000
1995-03-01 -0.4664330247543874700
1995-04-01 -1.5523526056915096000
1995-05-01 -0.1273320980061219700
1995-06-01 0.2902673971319732000
1995-07-01 -2.1656043535881830000
1995-08-01 2.7184130509639948000
1995-09-01 1.4079534538622176000
1995-10-01 -1.0743194276671384000
1995-11-01 0.0566221531624975600
1995-12-01 0.7454885071873143000
1996-01-01 -3.4812627062685677000
1996-02-01 2.2079039796137736000
1996-03-01 0.6384989334698407000
1996-04-01 1.8142003171218861000
1996-05-01 2.2035682037833766000
1996-06-01 1.5487048617277837000
1996-07-01 0.1989448428506711300
1996-08-01 1.0795689881949875000
1996-09-01 1.3994705611009433000
1996-10-01 0.5442075171873278000
1996-11-01 2.0982266420607950000
1996-12-01 0.3065212571316864000
1997-01-01 0.2951431797239383300
1997-02-01 3.8941206392210295000
1997-03-01 1.5574001423272585000
1997-04-01 1.1698505961699899000
1997-05-01 0.4271292402038951400
1997-06-01 1.4564283557507562000
1997-07-01 2.4578499564123253000
1997-08-01 1.4355909628745636000
1997-09-01 2.0246932476515624000
1997-10-01 1.0787016042001000000
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