Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Lagging Subcomponent of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Lagging Subcomponent of GDP
Series ID BBKMCLA
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-07-01
Last Updated 2026-08-31 7:33 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The lagging subcomponent of the cycle expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
ave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 5.5376151101
1960-02-01 -2.9133003164
1960-03-01 -6.8272671331
1960-04-01 -3.0883159514
1960-05-01 -4.2206319476
1960-06-01 -5.3471369067
1960-07-01 -3.7784524032
1960-08-01 -3.5820570101
1960-09-01 -3.9123686934
1960-10-01 -3.8627725875
1960-11-01 -7.5347886657
1960-12-01 -7.6371391474
1961-01-01 -2.7008585826
1961-02-01 -2.2145604078
1961-03-01 1.7792959408
1961-04-01 4.1982236688
1961-05-01 4.2805807862
1961-06-01 4.6301549717
1961-07-01 3.8252908758
1961-08-01 5.3203018435
1961-09-01 1.2619193587
1961-10-01 5.2634033837
1961-11-01 5.0273816554
1961-12-01 3.1511975512
1962-01-01 -1.6562882312
1962-02-01 5.1961193041
1962-03-01 1.6889724665
1962-04-01 0.1965866064
1962-05-01 -0.9530915836
1962-06-01 -1.8215493801
1962-07-01 1.0071202259
1962-08-01 -0.5492196375
1962-09-01 1.4500707406
1962-10-01 -1.0348835780
1962-11-01 0.3950778866
1962-12-01 -1.0628027733
1963-01-01 0.6687213725
1963-02-01 3.6693111504
1963-03-01 1.5910238909
1963-04-01 3.3402286876
1963-05-01 2.4587688965
1963-06-01 1.1077047192
1963-07-01 0.0325672225
1963-08-01 0.2251479498
1963-09-01 1.5138028511
1963-10-01 2.5324869083
1963-11-01 0.0555854739
1963-12-01 0.7113843309
1964-01-01 1.9901836776
1964-02-01 2.2246422105
1964-03-01 0.9753202129
1964-04-01 3.0458788118
1964-05-01 1.6890885334
1964-06-01 -0.0769988850
1964-07-01 3.0202563590
1964-08-01 0.5492405803
1964-09-01 1.5311736233
1964-10-01 -2.7906666502
1964-11-01 6.9174677750
1964-12-01 4.6959343066
1965-01-01 2.6526819566
1965-02-01 1.9136881005
1965-03-01 4.8140190444
1965-04-01 1.2409715890
1965-05-01 1.5175483611
1965-06-01 1.2533162071
1965-07-01 3.1987478465
1965-08-01 -0.0564666598
1965-09-01 0.3884019083
1965-10-01 3.0897527091
1965-11-01 3.1310485331
1965-12-01 4.2290690959
1966-01-01 3.4720917736
1966-02-01 4.1501884704
1966-03-01 4.7761643614
1966-04-01 -0.0397455990
1966-05-01 -0.4261233479
1966-06-01 1.0852398762
1966-07-01 0.4558034345
1966-08-01 0.7713121186
1966-09-01 1.1304145586
1966-10-01 -0.1458260773
1966-11-01 -3.6456347520
1966-12-01 -2.4506100261
1967-01-01 -1.9004367258
1967-02-01 -4.9415694358
1967-03-01 -2.5398823788
1967-04-01 -1.8898177792
1967-05-01 -2.8796720136
1967-06-01 -0.7250176282
1967-07-01 -2.0431813756
1967-08-01 3.5474353672
1967-09-01 -0.5476853555
1967-10-01 -0.1739547252
1967-11-01 5.6757454750
1967-12-01 3.7618358342
1968-01-01 -1.7613045800
1968-02-01 0.0587623879
1968-03-01 0.8005975311
1968-04-01 -0.4680581933
1968-05-01 2.1776926226
1968-06-01 0.0491327041
1968-07-01 0.0747566591
1968-08-01 -2.1885490673
1968-09-01 1.5716387125
1968-10-01 2.0018026416
1968-11-01 2.3095329246
1968-12-01 -0.7134948422
1969-01-01 0.6384356137
1969-02-01 0.9898248529
1969-03-01 2.5151914852
1969-04-01 0.2969838837
1969-05-01 -1.2906888013
1969-06-01 0.5475006301
1969-07-01 0.3881326316
1969-08-01 0.4334971878
1969-09-01 -0.2684336902
1969-10-01 -0.5269981989
1969-11-01 -4.8246435977
1969-12-01 -2.4245049061
1970-01-01 -6.1872614555
1970-02-01 -2.4951783018
1970-03-01 -3.8396864369
1970-04-01 -3.7564894628
1970-05-01 -1.8444887263
1970-06-01 -1.8678138127
1970-07-01 -1.0592220987
1970-08-01 -3.7082900193
1970-09-01 -4.2288357239
1970-10-01 -7.7482240919
1970-11-01 -5.0865764735
1970-12-01 6.1592093547
1971-01-01 1.4316121762
1971-02-01 -0.0059502838
1971-03-01 -0.2984680435
1971-04-01 0.6594458888
1971-05-01 1.2355060216
1971-06-01 1.7709675668
1971-07-01 -2.2973339463
1971-08-01 -0.6822185007
1971-09-01 3.4162248047
1971-10-01 0.7773714022
1971-11-01 2.3004982292
1971-12-01 3.4679771232
1972-01-01 4.7672669038
1972-02-01 2.0208690402
1972-03-01 2.7976785809
1972-04-01 2.4635807652
1972-05-01 1.0415172937
1972-06-01 1.2438339106
1972-07-01 -0.8749629353
1972-08-01 4.8919370261
1972-09-01 3.9882183517
1972-10-01 4.5850270558
1972-11-01 5.8148903369
1972-12-01 4.9071781192
1973-01-01 4.8053570706
1973-02-01 5.3661283018
1973-03-01 2.2388242498
1973-04-01 0.3557314168
1973-05-01 1.8906310157
1973-06-01 1.1686814261
1973-07-01 1.0657346227
1973-08-01 0.3662580020
1973-09-01 1.2743096380
1973-10-01 5.0973235740
1973-11-01 3.5657003291
1973-12-01 -0.8694612688
1974-01-01 -0.5463693430
1974-02-01 -0.7381833661
1974-03-01 -0.2078597048
1974-04-01 -1.9663661820
1974-05-01 0.9965078541
1974-06-01 -1.9259816291
1974-07-01 -1.5390089224
1974-08-01 -3.7392510558
1974-09-01 -3.2441632256
1974-10-01 -4.9871608925
1974-11-01 -11.7236485534
1974-12-01 -16.6349548417
1975-01-01 -9.0007236323
1975-02-01 -10.6797174606
1975-03-01 -10.0445341471
1975-04-01 -1.1338843161
1975-05-01 -2.2300877633
1975-06-01 1.0752558518
1975-07-01 4.1882067540
1975-08-01 3.1246416972
1975-09-01 3.7401370632
1975-10-01 1.3564370065
1975-11-01 0.0617489074
1975-12-01 4.1001242160
1976-01-01 5.2597374720
1976-02-01 3.3079495723
1976-03-01 1.3450039346
1976-04-01 1.1058216407
1976-05-01 1.5094049472
1976-06-01 1.0459913123
1976-07-01 1.2533196978
1976-08-01 0.5577327950
1976-09-01 0.5334373609
1976-10-01 -0.7672415374
1976-11-01 3.4737212754
1976-12-01 4.5359194956
1977-01-01 -1.0934933346
1977-02-01 5.9048682460
1977-03-01 5.3209138246
1977-04-01 2.9932962133
1977-05-01 2.3079885968
1977-06-01 2.6984218661
1977-07-01 0.6035617324
1977-08-01 1.1033063600
1977-09-01 0.4466661263
1977-10-01 0.4588602783
1977-11-01 1.2026962904
1977-12-01 1.5894415569
1978-01-01 -6.2046302974
1978-02-01 3.7493687689
1978-03-01 5.7449499577
1978-04-01 7.1200032413
1978-05-01 2.0054470689
1978-06-01 2.9415091501
1978-07-01 -0.3994442851
1978-08-01 2.6708714516
1978-09-01 1.2636454611
1978-10-01 2.9418157366
1978-11-01 3.0203026531
1978-12-01 1.7451244313
1979-01-01 -1.8928725309
1979-02-01 0.8176312984
1979-03-01 4.5066709362
1979-04-01 -4.7967773689
1979-05-01 5.5124379014
1979-06-01 0.1140953863
1979-07-01 -0.3120064455
1979-08-01 -2.2899594645
1979-09-01 -1.1663881841
1979-10-01 1.3372053902
1979-11-01 -1.0476284440
1979-12-01 -0.2262289557
1980-01-01 1.2446764976
1980-02-01 -1.5274676220
1980-03-01 -6.4512363364
1980-04-01 -10.4402791460
1980-05-01 -11.5225723768
1980-06-01 -6.9889978930
1980-07-01 -3.5841565141
1980-08-01 0.8702189080
1980-09-01 6.3056503695
1980-10-01 5.5399035731
1980-11-01 3.6055714066
1980-12-01 2.0033634610
1981-01-01 -0.7218066311
1981-02-01 -1.8462437748
1981-03-01 -0.8302073863
1981-04-01 -0.1393680800
1981-05-01 -0.6985812249
1981-06-01 -0.6835628752
1981-07-01 0.2968394388
1981-08-01 -2.3307712395
1981-09-01 -4.0602334535
1981-10-01 -6.6006494911
1981-11-01 -7.1676393662
1981-12-01 -8.1630343627
1982-01-01 -9.2518205283
1982-02-01 3.8554518020
1982-03-01 -4.3763105598
1982-04-01 -5.1184206582
1982-05-01 -2.9639380089
1982-06-01 -3.2853677876
1982-07-01 -3.4716791704
1982-08-01 -5.9478267904
1982-09-01 -3.6645558503
1982-10-01 -6.0305949822
1982-11-01 -3.4170109455
1982-12-01 -2.3986067530
1983-01-01 5.2742136350
1983-02-01 -1.0699426832
1983-03-01 3.6883142374
1983-04-01 4.1136495222
1983-05-01 4.2812952465
1983-06-01 5.9556191133
1983-07-01 4.6924696277
1983-08-01 3.5603616618
1983-09-01 6.2685354065
1983-10-01 4.2517073148
1983-11-01 3.9002669960
1983-12-01 3.8624776913
1984-01-01 5.3933880479
1984-02-01 3.7041647088
1984-03-01 1.3057828391
1984-04-01 1.5498240717
1984-05-01 2.3010544328
1984-06-01 1.1724156350
1984-07-01 -0.0980722308
1984-08-01 -0.2653163429
1984-09-01 -2.3508891270
1984-10-01 0.6423033072
1984-11-01 0.8758264825
1984-12-01 -0.7575651419
1985-01-01 -1.4780029391
1985-02-01 -0.6700970411
1985-03-01 1.2540824935
1985-04-01 -1.4830410654
1985-05-01 0.1266544142
1985-06-01 -3.0641534807
1985-07-01 -1.4466984221
1985-08-01 1.3494821666
1985-09-01 -0.4239196253
1985-10-01 -0.8262079428
1985-11-01 1.0906249637
1985-12-01 0.0115579021
1986-01-01 2.6449719471
1986-02-01 -3.4727177659
1986-03-01 -3.6784650257
1986-04-01 0.8188155174
1986-05-01 -1.2008216688
1986-06-01 -0.7397220283
1986-07-01 1.0213493412
1986-08-01 0.1191499583
1986-09-01 1.7829999039
1986-10-01 -0.7508617537
1986-11-01 0.0106004411
1986-12-01 3.2162091591
1987-01-01 -1.8635119599
1987-02-01 5.5530688018
1987-03-01 0.7359639104
1987-04-01 1.4550306216
1987-05-01 1.8935114761
1987-06-01 2.4968512213
1987-07-01 3.4330918792
1987-08-01 0.9643993272
1987-09-01 3.3117100558
1987-10-01 3.3957658359
1987-11-01 1.1667455952
1987-12-01 2.0986277395
1988-01-01 -0.7678273924
1988-02-01 2.1095025449
1988-03-01 2.1656190160
1988-04-01 1.5076155223
1988-05-01 0.2118780159
1988-06-01 2.0129821009
1988-07-01 -0.1394702450
1988-08-01 0.5117806933
1988-09-01 0.8535388607
1988-10-01 1.2118101089
1988-11-01 1.3216844098
1988-12-01 2.7918240042
1989-01-01 1.0364715104
1989-02-01 -2.1240523025
1989-03-01 -0.0571236962
1989-04-01 0.8410134811
1989-05-01 -1.9223522544
1989-06-01 -1.9019504284
1989-07-01 -4.2874591336
1989-08-01 1.9240426760
1989-09-01 -2.2642678028
1989-10-01 -2.0071477370
1989-11-01 0.6767878482
1989-12-01 0.0162475472
1990-01-01 0.2361190124
1990-02-01 2.8071750621
1990-03-01 1.1206010570
1990-04-01 -2.8022834991
1990-05-01 0.0215064046
1990-06-01 0.1930323672
1990-07-01 -1.6276184073
1990-08-01 0.4051764012
1990-09-01 -2.3461762974
1990-10-01 -2.6791256615
1990-11-01 -6.2072108089
1990-12-01 -4.1939561538
1991-01-01 -4.6865531566
1991-02-01 -4.6537847718
1991-03-01 -4.7946321249
1991-04-01 0.8891856457
1991-05-01 1.1075280545
1991-06-01 0.7142159653
1991-07-01 1.7419923939
1991-08-01 0.2369458240
1991-09-01 1.6004799086
1991-10-01 -0.5548110955
1991-11-01 -1.2980561231
1991-12-01 -3.4601387106
1992-01-01 -0.7520538317
1992-02-01 1.0582517262
1992-03-01 3.0502754573
1992-04-01 2.0534430234
1992-05-01 0.3417436507
1992-06-01 1.3039263923
1992-07-01 1.8651002172
1992-08-01 -2.4496376978
1992-09-01 0.9897933898
1992-10-01 1.3902231746
1992-11-01 0.6050202493
1992-12-01 1.5494269532
1993-01-01 1.4087121689
1993-02-01 0.9393118954
1993-03-01 -0.5592073536
1993-04-01 0.7729659911
1993-05-01 -0.0104993295
1993-06-01 -0.1054999505
1993-07-01 -0.7004494484
1993-08-01 -0.4081951920
1993-09-01 1.6298592479
1993-10-01 2.1822422794
1993-11-01 1.3250494593
1993-12-01 1.9179243160
1994-01-01 0.4645361554
1994-02-01 1.0603577229
1994-03-01 5.0028668025
1994-04-01 2.0271221032
1994-05-01 2.6018761747
1994-06-01 2.8775533639
1994-07-01 1.1262948372
1994-08-01 3.5455041598
1994-09-01 1.5828696584
1994-10-01 2.6652211774
1994-11-01 3.3019151952
1994-12-01 3.7332044560
1995-01-01 0.8059792838
1995-02-01 -0.3949593385
1995-03-01 -0.4621122621
1995-04-01 -1.5509660043
1995-05-01 -0.1312451984
1995-06-01 0.2847225349
1995-07-01 -2.1678740637
1995-08-01 2.7166152263
1995-09-01 1.4034903991
1995-10-01 -1.0696979492
1995-11-01 0.0546799314
1995-12-01 0.7370104291
1996-01-01 -3.4782946245
1996-02-01 2.1983609792
1996-03-01 0.6260872157
1996-04-01 1.8141745957
1996-05-01 2.2000862858
1996-06-01 1.5475242872
1996-07-01 0.1992546980
1996-08-01 1.0778661606
1996-09-01 1.3945540880
1996-10-01 0.5485401468
1996-11-01 2.0965454489
1996-12-01 0.3109144954
1997-01-01 0.2972765784
1997-02-01 3.8906058952
1997-03-01 1.5536156406
1997-04-01 1.1787969587
1997-05-01 0.4278230257
1997-06-01 1.4624442009
1997-07-01 2.4583456423
1997-08-01 1.4339055721
1997-09-01 2.0224425020
1997-10-01 1.0834603793
1997-11-01 1.6145729930
1997-12-01 0.2302714199
1998-01-01 0.0969741574
1998-02-01 0.5195229404
1998-03-01 -0.7309021560
1998-04-01 -0.4876462218
1998-05-01 0.2133935520
1998-06-01 -2.1778782664
1998-07-01 -1.6014418238
1998-08-01 2.5998880630
1998-09-01 0.0352036378
1998-10-01 0.7449534064
1998-11-01 -0.7675062855
1998-12-01 0.0022117599
1999-01-01 -0.1252525805
1999-02-01 1.6677121341
1999-03-01 -0.2328443276
1999-04-01 0.5985863880
1999-05-01 1.4877568522
1999-06-01 0.1376514675
1999-07-01 1.4261987460
1999-08-01 1.5321924810
1999-09-01 0.3884832610
1999-10-01 3.0090413977
1999-11-01 1.4832193182
1999-12-01 1.8696223630
2000-01-01 0.9703541508
2000-02-01 -0.7728002577
2000-03-01 2.7238017539
2000-04-01 1.5044210859
2000-05-01 -0.4477842506
2000-06-01 1.0951741616
2000-07-01 -1.5405931474
2000-08-01 -1.2069631177
2000-09-01 0.9572598732
2000-10-01 -2.1745432473
2000-11-01 -2.0617666178
2000-12-01 -2.5778626779
2001-01-01 -2.6968240955
2001-02-01 -3.9808401774
2001-03-01 -4.2104117594
2001-04-01 -4.9590106993
2001-05-01 -3.1911793174
2001-06-01 -4.9384008227
2001-07-01 -4.4391372380
2001-08-01 -3.6649319349
2001-09-01 -5.4702296773
2001-10-01 -4.0786744059
2001-11-01 -5.0112125244
2001-12-01 -3.1239907353
2002-01-01 -1.3131149996
2002-02-01 -0.7693367836
2002-03-01 -0.3300505622
2002-04-01 1.4975233485
2002-05-01 0.4225099239
2002-06-01 0.0496637634
2002-07-01 -1.4989364401
2002-08-01 -0.9664633892
2002-09-01 -2.1568627687
2002-10-01 -1.9001240109
2002-11-01 -0.3304726752
2002-12-01 -2.8092490161
2003-01-01 0.8016190288
2003-02-01 -1.3095951314
2003-03-01 -1.0602121428
2003-04-01 -3.2281297412
2003-05-01 -0.7696939705
2003-06-01 0.3063736301
2003-07-01 0.7165076321
2003-08-01 -0.0440990101
2003-09-01 2.6511377339
2003-10-01 1.6148862673
2003-11-01 2.1414047100
2003-12-01 1.5077371119
2004-01-01 1.3014775467
2004-02-01 2.5949346333
2004-03-01 3.3584502369
2004-04-01 1.5839740507
2004-05-01 2.6163689266
2004-06-01 1.5078525869
2004-07-01 2.3440694900
2004-08-01 1.8260876592
2004-09-01 1.6409851874
2004-10-01 2.6723160547
2004-11-01 1.9881871184
2004-12-01 3.2576875101
2005-01-01 2.4535030691
2005-02-01 1.9876723288
2005-03-01 0.3996076480
2005-04-01 2.4066133807
2005-05-01 0.1773475237
2005-06-01 0.7773796321
2005-07-01 -0.2277956411
2005-08-01 2.7886305189
2005-09-01 1.2185814606
2005-10-01 2.5640200992
2005-11-01 3.0018565470
2005-12-01 1.6827419509
2006-01-01 1.8433121925
2006-02-01 0.7777134488
2006-03-01 1.7322945848
2006-04-01 0.5061396952
2006-05-01 1.4223394322
2006-06-01 0.4894756797
2006-07-01 -0.3021512778
2006-08-01 0.9674412370
2006-09-01 -0.9825641901
2006-10-01 -1.6225973007
2006-11-01 -0.4805513181
2006-12-01 2.0757101472
2007-01-01 -1.2839749841
2007-02-01 1.0266099160
2007-03-01 1.6637441853
2007-04-01 0.4040362684
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2026-04-01 1.0507528072
2026-05-01 0.2713029420
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2026-07-01 0.8151305242

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