Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Lagging Subcomponent of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Lagging Subcomponent of GDP
Series ID BBKMCLA
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-08-01
Last Updated 2026-10-05 7:33 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The lagging subcomponent of the cycle expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
ave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 5.5395022329
1960-02-01 -2.9260735831
1960-03-01 -6.8403975751
1960-04-01 -3.0698460744
1960-05-01 -4.2289913267
1960-06-01 -5.3458380083
1960-07-01 -3.7783953546
1960-08-01 -3.5835929664
1960-09-01 -3.9114713768
1960-10-01 -3.8469852933
1960-11-01 -7.5333781421
1960-12-01 -7.6464541220
1961-01-01 -2.6930002954
1961-02-01 -2.2140872757
1961-03-01 1.7846281880
1961-04-01 4.1932139120
1961-05-01 4.2801493518
1961-06-01 4.6290799297
1961-07-01 3.8214657358
1961-08-01 5.3211020633
1961-09-01 1.2539040982
1961-10-01 5.2586592326
1961-11-01 5.0220653361
1961-12-01 3.1459215695
1962-01-01 -1.6773981904
1962-02-01 5.2013324345
1962-03-01 1.6869136120
1962-04-01 0.1929921730
1962-05-01 -0.9530691520
1962-06-01 -1.8307146449
1962-07-01 1.0092818650
1962-08-01 -0.5500436288
1962-09-01 1.4591221487
1962-10-01 -1.0439355267
1962-11-01 0.3974715182
1962-12-01 -1.0690254494
1963-01-01 0.6602664589
1963-02-01 3.6752761568
1963-03-01 1.5880151364
1963-04-01 3.3445417019
1963-05-01 2.4537475093
1963-06-01 1.1047798505
1963-07-01 0.0312086617
1963-08-01 0.2258708455
1963-09-01 1.5074079897
1963-10-01 2.5340896478
1963-11-01 0.0509732160
1963-12-01 0.7079780704
1964-01-01 1.9908428647
1964-02-01 2.2295046953
1964-03-01 0.9660546782
1964-04-01 3.0414166415
1964-05-01 1.6907647636
1964-06-01 -0.0865783991
1964-07-01 3.0178167204
1964-08-01 0.5408965864
1964-09-01 1.5265503430
1964-10-01 -2.7979497213
1964-11-01 6.9181550844
1964-12-01 4.6952641753
1965-01-01 2.6446783263
1965-02-01 1.9048823922
1965-03-01 4.8095235873
1965-04-01 1.2397037044
1965-05-01 1.5109108586
1965-06-01 1.2442023720
1965-07-01 3.1994275198
1965-08-01 -0.0711698991
1965-09-01 0.3846296515
1965-10-01 3.0883060972
1965-11-01 3.1273548546
1965-12-01 4.2292733175
1966-01-01 3.4631902624
1966-02-01 4.1500031760
1966-03-01 4.7787355062
1966-04-01 -0.0488980604
1966-05-01 -0.4339613748
1966-06-01 1.0867077111
1966-07-01 0.4532615580
1966-08-01 0.7725563976
1966-09-01 1.1304420580
1966-10-01 -0.1483373848
1966-11-01 -3.6509077396
1966-12-01 -2.4498728403
1967-01-01 -1.9035530921
1967-02-01 -4.9467769304
1967-03-01 -2.5324977893
1967-04-01 -1.8908949614
1967-05-01 -2.8846390251
1967-06-01 -0.6994875961
1967-07-01 -2.0599869417
1967-08-01 3.5545915160
1967-09-01 -0.5240304345
1967-10-01 -0.1931714158
1967-11-01 5.6935016924
1967-12-01 3.7722695937
1968-01-01 -1.7906935895
1968-02-01 0.0588386179
1968-03-01 0.8091520169
1968-04-01 -0.4761148399
1968-05-01 2.1705913949
1968-06-01 0.0572160368
1968-07-01 0.0849447528
1968-08-01 -2.1897317144
1968-09-01 1.5518635879
1968-10-01 1.9990309293
1968-11-01 2.3217375430
1968-12-01 -0.7308710005
1969-01-01 0.6449793963
1969-02-01 0.9855639438
1969-03-01 2.5119781293
1969-04-01 0.2989537304
1969-05-01 -1.2925152189
1969-06-01 0.5370746909
1969-07-01 0.3870474275
1969-08-01 0.4397635941
1969-09-01 -0.2652136086
1969-10-01 -0.5179056277
1969-11-01 -4.8292167756
1969-12-01 -2.4076785029
1970-01-01 -6.1762733897
1970-02-01 -2.4867088336
1970-03-01 -3.8423259351
1970-04-01 -3.7478582118
1970-05-01 -1.8324116864
1970-06-01 -1.8674630978
1970-07-01 -1.0554483086
1970-08-01 -3.7143379683
1970-09-01 -4.2226600609
1970-10-01 -7.7362466194
1970-11-01 -5.1051920545
1970-12-01 6.1736659470
1971-01-01 1.4228589079
1971-02-01 -0.0121971710
1971-03-01 -0.3119221205
1971-04-01 0.6625319674
1971-05-01 1.2247655006
1971-06-01 1.7794611198
1971-07-01 -2.3031057705
1971-08-01 -0.6864582336
1971-09-01 3.4236100217
1971-10-01 0.7800091600
1971-11-01 2.3017050930
1971-12-01 3.4500961971
1972-01-01 4.7376842642
1972-02-01 2.0162401293
1972-03-01 2.8037339153
1972-04-01 2.4547363726
1972-05-01 1.0411522709
1972-06-01 1.2475272831
1972-07-01 -0.8804118446
1972-08-01 4.8866603322
1972-09-01 3.9845952249
1972-10-01 4.5788211636
1972-11-01 5.8047518025
1972-12-01 4.8990558945
1973-01-01 4.8050159726
1973-02-01 5.3674885869
1973-03-01 2.2373306627
1973-04-01 0.3429592125
1973-05-01 1.8877569508
1973-06-01 1.1725730348
1973-07-01 1.0610515484
1973-08-01 0.3695213185
1973-09-01 1.2785443527
1973-10-01 5.1006929824
1973-11-01 3.5672132953
1973-12-01 -0.8834117079
1974-01-01 -0.5332203233
1974-02-01 -0.7303900296
1974-03-01 -0.2038765941
1974-04-01 -1.9624706846
1974-05-01 0.9971890975
1974-06-01 -1.9300644632
1974-07-01 -1.5243616180
1974-08-01 -3.7238569972
1974-09-01 -3.2411161083
1974-10-01 -4.9823827883
1974-11-01 -11.7111232749
1974-12-01 -16.6375261686
1975-01-01 -8.9572002772
1975-02-01 -10.6676227409
1975-03-01 -10.0429446856
1975-04-01 -1.1119923575
1975-05-01 -2.2014105687
1975-06-01 1.0758365128
1975-07-01 4.1987600750
1975-08-01 3.1264043236
1975-09-01 3.7456857645
1975-10-01 1.3482764396
1975-11-01 0.0576516137
1975-12-01 4.1068576342
1976-01-01 5.2687351758
1976-02-01 3.2917073150
1976-03-01 1.3398707558
1976-04-01 1.1102294621
1976-05-01 1.4978939622
1976-06-01 1.0541486098
1976-07-01 1.2550633788
1976-08-01 0.5475903151
1976-09-01 0.5327078467
1976-10-01 -0.7669716403
1976-11-01 3.4674973345
1976-12-01 4.5494604426
1977-01-01 -1.1169538327
1977-02-01 5.9198178255
1977-03-01 5.3170406742
1977-04-01 2.9899194841
1977-05-01 2.2937495420
1977-06-01 2.6912564009
1977-07-01 0.6051180033
1977-08-01 1.0975765926
1977-09-01 0.4456391529
1977-10-01 0.4586416106
1977-11-01 1.2046339872
1977-12-01 1.5852549912
1978-01-01 -6.2339400936
1978-02-01 3.7619195478
1978-03-01 5.7473799929
1978-04-01 7.1159812086
1978-05-01 2.0036438190
1978-06-01 2.9453006667
1978-07-01 -0.4073177286
1978-08-01 2.6777930418
1978-09-01 1.2646827969
1978-10-01 2.9416042635
1978-11-01 3.0256499682
1978-12-01 1.7503414892
1979-01-01 -1.9063083966
1979-02-01 0.8210116493
1979-03-01 4.5267468714
1979-04-01 -4.8071205653
1979-05-01 5.5273333861
1979-06-01 0.1228774777
1979-07-01 -0.3120360436
1979-08-01 -2.2683722035
1979-09-01 -1.1608921231
1979-10-01 1.3490169967
1979-11-01 -1.0360522584
1979-12-01 -0.2225094964
1980-01-01 1.2697153355
1980-02-01 -1.5168034543
1980-03-01 -6.4480286583
1980-04-01 -10.4283960699
1980-05-01 -11.5073314815
1980-06-01 -6.9764443321
1980-07-01 -3.5769815346
1980-08-01 0.8673339571
1980-09-01 6.3028564651
1980-10-01 5.5451690678
1980-11-01 3.6057368620
1980-12-01 2.0070416115
1981-01-01 -0.7130282461
1981-02-01 -1.8457201982
1981-03-01 -0.8266361256
1981-04-01 -0.1372295145
1981-05-01 -0.7016578076
1981-06-01 -0.6771204030
1981-07-01 0.3048720245
1981-08-01 -2.3236847204
1981-09-01 -4.0518833687
1981-10-01 -6.5947375372
1981-11-01 -7.1582418747
1981-12-01 -8.1501583182
1982-01-01 -9.2663899863
1982-02-01 3.8954295075
1982-03-01 -4.3762619104
1982-04-01 -5.1051119558
1982-05-01 -2.9504019607
1982-06-01 -3.2772748728
1982-07-01 -3.4518523582
1982-08-01 -5.9475574083
1982-09-01 -3.6494842777
1982-10-01 -6.0203894530
1982-11-01 -3.4107353218
1982-12-01 -2.3977990404
1983-01-01 5.2773692263
1983-02-01 -1.0789725147
1983-03-01 3.6997048849
1983-04-01 4.1147196147
1983-05-01 4.2822917838
1983-06-01 5.9662715866
1983-07-01 4.6916818477
1983-08-01 3.5515423240
1983-09-01 6.2721416729
1983-10-01 4.2502258829
1983-11-01 3.9024113696
1983-12-01 3.8534033932
1984-01-01 5.3991313867
1984-02-01 3.6981982174
1984-03-01 1.2936963920
1984-04-01 1.5540116822
1984-05-01 2.3069833997
1984-06-01 1.1790350265
1984-07-01 -0.1097071973
1984-08-01 -0.2620152158
1984-09-01 -2.3444006696
1984-10-01 0.6453072117
1984-11-01 0.8868873236
1984-12-01 -0.7620970087
1985-01-01 -1.4807880120
1985-02-01 -0.6613307390
1985-03-01 1.2601611163
1985-04-01 -1.4794445762
1985-05-01 0.1332275976
1985-06-01 -3.0707827639
1985-07-01 -1.4451148089
1985-08-01 1.3599605660
1985-09-01 -0.4145190172
1985-10-01 -0.8267146491
1985-11-01 1.0967082758
1985-12-01 0.0132267331
1986-01-01 2.6562254201
1986-02-01 -3.4764622580
1986-03-01 -3.6812992337
1986-04-01 0.8203382172
1986-05-01 -1.1934645939
1986-06-01 -0.7326698527
1986-07-01 1.0257418757
1986-08-01 0.1216867241
1986-09-01 1.7995207884
1986-10-01 -0.7580819108
1986-11-01 0.0049462094
1986-12-01 3.2352936983
1987-01-01 -1.8833234460
1987-02-01 5.5746907164
1987-03-01 0.7273524426
1987-04-01 1.4602611836
1987-05-01 1.8908431491
1987-06-01 2.4991167762
1987-07-01 3.4361040776
1987-08-01 0.9623430231
1987-09-01 3.3060811490
1987-10-01 3.3913054144
1987-11-01 1.1620614966
1987-12-01 2.1040116940
1988-01-01 -0.7693479567
1988-02-01 2.1132728424
1988-03-01 2.1736257407
1988-04-01 1.5045793509
1988-05-01 0.2112658410
1988-06-01 2.0139890647
1988-07-01 -0.1360152124
1988-08-01 0.5134298048
1988-09-01 0.8512575067
1988-10-01 1.2173527776
1988-11-01 1.3224731474
1988-12-01 2.7958311050
1989-01-01 1.0371524263
1989-02-01 -2.1369061825
1989-03-01 -0.0516814809
1989-04-01 0.8574533040
1989-05-01 -1.9158726683
1989-06-01 -1.8983875699
1989-07-01 -4.2924974684
1989-08-01 1.9367090393
1989-09-01 -2.2659318560
1989-10-01 -2.0112990537
1989-11-01 0.6878705642
1989-12-01 0.0224576885
1990-01-01 0.2452016684
1990-02-01 2.8122923051
1990-03-01 1.1215413382
1990-04-01 -2.8087995270
1990-05-01 0.0226805706
1990-06-01 0.2024465765
1990-07-01 -1.6199456459
1990-08-01 0.4200619430
1990-09-01 -2.3325951305
1990-10-01 -2.6635703530
1990-11-01 -6.2012442650
1990-12-01 -4.1867233525
1991-01-01 -4.6925376798
1991-02-01 -4.6442142341
1991-03-01 -4.7973233632
1991-04-01 0.8954281390
1991-05-01 1.1100731427
1991-06-01 0.7137698342
1991-07-01 1.7484619396
1991-08-01 0.2350940463
1991-09-01 1.6022743823
1991-10-01 -0.5501243138
1991-11-01 -1.2911539999
1991-12-01 -3.4649528120
1992-01-01 -0.7345952693
1992-02-01 1.0587014219
1992-03-01 3.0497782958
1992-04-01 2.0542137649
1992-05-01 0.3435753164
1992-06-01 1.3087474264
1992-07-01 1.8724988462
1992-08-01 -2.4496685367
1992-09-01 0.9987293127
1992-10-01 1.3971773452
1992-11-01 0.6032358739
1992-12-01 1.5518948939
1993-01-01 1.4141177882
1993-02-01 0.9382822236
1993-03-01 -0.5607658886
1993-04-01 0.7868477987
1993-05-01 -0.0018227977
1993-06-01 -0.1039521705
1993-07-01 -0.6949929072
1993-08-01 -0.4079782995
1993-09-01 1.6321062873
1993-10-01 2.1831261255
1993-11-01 1.3221531876
1993-12-01 1.9157779071
1994-01-01 0.4558891152
1994-02-01 1.0626705603
1994-03-01 5.0151819276
1994-04-01 2.0237117523
1994-05-01 2.5927843073
1994-06-01 2.8797383266
1994-07-01 1.1269238130
1994-08-01 3.5544414459
1994-09-01 1.5804160147
1994-10-01 2.6678146445
1994-11-01 3.2988416899
1994-12-01 3.7336559649
1995-01-01 0.8052333889
1995-02-01 -0.4008752640
1995-03-01 -0.4556076626
1995-04-01 -1.5476431580
1995-05-01 -0.1242464919
1995-06-01 0.2888509794
1995-07-01 -2.1776312500
1995-08-01 2.7216859991
1995-09-01 1.4091805357
1995-10-01 -1.0716345355
1995-11-01 0.0639549166
1995-12-01 0.7458207704
1996-01-01 -3.4917745286
1996-02-01 2.2128165439
1996-03-01 0.6299029315
1996-04-01 1.8154120624
1996-05-01 2.2040969404
1996-06-01 1.5449540862
1996-07-01 0.1980525168
1996-08-01 1.0804314394
1996-09-01 1.4010396783
1996-10-01 0.5519388652
1996-11-01 2.1033911849
1996-12-01 0.3117807815
1997-01-01 0.2951502310
1997-02-01 3.8963668633
1997-03-01 1.5565577300
1997-04-01 1.1667838942
1997-05-01 0.4230110452
1997-06-01 1.4661071155
1997-07-01 2.4598531746
1997-08-01 1.4326782514
1997-09-01 2.0226815968
1997-10-01 1.0786333573
1997-11-01 1.6136410891
1997-12-01 0.2278686773
1998-01-01 0.0941101698
1998-02-01 0.5210933391
1998-03-01 -0.7386004582
1998-04-01 -0.4905669333
1998-05-01 0.2194802881
1998-06-01 -2.1777524555
1998-07-01 -1.6045355064
1998-08-01 2.6003512645
1998-09-01 0.0368623273
1998-10-01 0.7513914621
1998-11-01 -0.7685206738
1998-12-01 0.0050917663
1999-01-01 -0.1285136287
1999-02-01 1.6656928085
1999-03-01 -0.2369427868
1999-04-01 0.5983258683
1999-05-01 1.4919618342
1999-06-01 0.1340444304
1999-07-01 1.4222070631
1999-08-01 1.5304174779
1999-09-01 0.3828104260
1999-10-01 3.0031621089
1999-11-01 1.4807372581
1999-12-01 1.8773195975
2000-01-01 0.9700700445
2000-02-01 -0.7691029077
2000-03-01 2.7308026696
2000-04-01 1.4973694384
2000-05-01 -0.4505911251
2000-06-01 1.1046034894
2000-07-01 -1.5415582600
2000-08-01 -1.2041228758
2000-09-01 0.9644990173
2000-10-01 -2.1747145536
2000-11-01 -2.0611241250
2000-12-01 -2.5660679547
2001-01-01 -2.6856335960
2001-02-01 -3.9728200763
2001-03-01 -4.2046597227
2001-04-01 -4.9555736162
2001-05-01 -3.1849290152
2001-06-01 -4.9328319769
2001-07-01 -4.4347198809
2001-08-01 -3.6551787909
2001-09-01 -5.4656009781
2001-10-01 -4.0630203418
2001-11-01 -5.0162217405
2001-12-01 -3.1218331513
2002-01-01 -1.3095685806
2002-02-01 -0.7580635318
2002-03-01 -0.3309780021
2002-04-01 1.4997824207
2002-05-01 0.4205258047
2002-06-01 0.0493301906
2002-07-01 -1.4959817418
2002-08-01 -0.9680084216
2002-09-01 -2.1636275728
2002-10-01 -1.9040479758
2002-11-01 -0.3298985871
2002-12-01 -2.8152873662
2003-01-01 0.8169932009
2003-02-01 -1.3057792428
2003-03-01 -1.0601199929
2003-04-01 -3.2423801307
2003-05-01 -0.7764414965
2003-06-01 0.2999713393
2003-07-01 0.7206826059
2003-08-01 -0.0382387947
2003-09-01 2.6497257699
2003-10-01 1.6072493124
2003-11-01 2.1337227068
2003-12-01 1.5080928454
2004-01-01 1.3032860154
2004-02-01 2.5953403996
2004-03-01 3.3638813527
2004-04-01 1.5720952474
2004-05-01 2.6180908780
2004-06-01 1.4957821347
2004-07-01 2.3448790262
2004-08-01 1.8281224626
2004-09-01 1.6376249331
2004-10-01 2.6702411822
2004-11-01 1.9773947378
2004-12-01 3.2593521266
2005-01-01 2.4423868237
2005-02-01 1.9899795085
2005-03-01 0.3970325686
2005-04-01 2.4076063331
2005-05-01 0.1723993454
2005-06-01 0.7857935203
2005-07-01 -0.2221984482
2005-08-01 2.7942856020
2005-09-01 1.2196414663
2005-10-01 2.5631860457
2005-11-01 2.9973043544
2005-12-01 1.6896959435
2006-01-01 1.8554896672
2006-02-01 0.7747910119
2006-03-01 1.7374630032
2006-04-01 0.5076880784
2006-05-01 1.4248823902
2006-06-01 0.4858651922
2006-07-01 -0.3074120226
2006-08-01 0.9638609430
2006-09-01 -0.9931759980
2006-10-01 -1.6323214128
2006-11-01 -0.4843644259
2006-12-01 2.0849325615
2007-01-01 -1.2814755653
2007-02-01 1.0296984415
2007-03-01 1.6630241985
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2026-08-01 0.1574876309

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