Federal Reserve Economic Data

Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Lagging Subcomponent of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Lagging Subcomponent of GDP
Series ID BBKMCLA
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2025-09-01
Last Updated 2026-01-05 7:32 AM CST
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The lagging subcomponent of the cycle expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
ave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 5.5059159966549664000
1960-02-01 -2.8904949101857890000
1960-03-01 -6.7874788693768915000
1960-04-01 -3.0134751061998175000
1960-05-01 -4.1853929338789095000
1960-06-01 -5.3097589537646070000
1960-07-01 -3.7384305508231530000
1960-08-01 -3.5710654769103725000
1960-09-01 -3.9094394854796577000
1960-10-01 -3.8236027271750070000
1960-11-01 -7.5193386905672920000
1960-12-01 -7.6299574751658780000
1961-01-01 -2.6313082017363265000
1961-02-01 -2.1546894326839400000
1961-03-01 1.8022088935021243000
1961-04-01 4.1885944222640290000
1961-05-01 4.2795175477815120000
1961-06-01 4.6325514615766510000
1961-07-01 3.7903852347795306000
1961-08-01 5.2543734668624480000
1961-09-01 1.2216777092755393000
1961-10-01 5.2602411410679290000
1961-11-01 5.0273582448603690000
1961-12-01 3.1147294495814290000
1962-01-01 -1.6612046584539268000
1962-02-01 5.1546403466461880000
1962-03-01 1.6945197420497184000
1962-04-01 0.2212287868420957600
1962-05-01 -0.9361257217821283000
1962-06-01 -1.8246565412029643000
1962-07-01 1.0094463666056240000
1962-08-01 -0.5423253208220217000
1962-09-01 1.4449483994611094000
1962-10-01 -1.0251568947576846000
1962-11-01 0.4153735536388887000
1962-12-01 -1.0562189594973082000
1963-01-01 0.6456350968168953000
1963-02-01 3.6647674152520180000
1963-03-01 1.6134761587433177000
1963-04-01 3.3389917783671983000
1963-05-01 2.4639790412997917000
1963-06-01 1.1255909486352458000
1963-07-01 0.0470636276318275450
1963-08-01 0.2412267873550107700
1963-09-01 1.5227254685896792000
1963-10-01 2.5248709052096685000
1963-11-01 0.0495628643559031250
1963-12-01 0.7203544018999563000
1964-01-01 1.9808882758939756000
1964-02-01 2.2532528132210654000
1964-03-01 0.9736381782221291000
1964-04-01 3.0396199469820417000
1964-05-01 1.6997245967370744000
1964-06-01 -0.0487446471028335900
1964-07-01 2.9996513673358685000
1964-08-01 0.5313729615468635000
1964-09-01 1.4695953199108610000
1964-10-01 -2.7818073892331197000
1964-11-01 6.8410173821798620000
1964-12-01 4.6790851719589010000
1965-01-01 2.6052641904910674000
1965-02-01 1.9175408594794380000
1965-03-01 4.7806073189933125000
1965-04-01 1.2209549314714176000
1965-05-01 1.5169466631680657000
1965-06-01 1.2327606536948900000
1965-07-01 3.1738276403326315000
1965-08-01 -0.0360453123536169200
1965-09-01 0.4183238024976082500
1965-10-01 3.1036058619960274000
1965-11-01 3.1140404900722376000
1965-12-01 4.2015944126989240000
1966-01-01 3.3957796625304972000
1966-02-01 4.0698065541179730000
1966-03-01 4.6935066887301270000
1966-04-01 -0.1175854482153603800
1966-05-01 -0.5199895598262224000
1966-06-01 1.0058067623517860000
1966-07-01 0.3895888989222834300
1966-08-01 0.7043375187260608000
1966-09-01 1.0538294048827535000
1966-10-01 -0.2200447294107499000
1966-11-01 -3.6459066454988650000
1966-12-01 -2.4595650881231443000
1967-01-01 -1.8525505802197402000
1967-02-01 -4.9092695036768745000
1967-03-01 -2.5007200368357430000
1967-04-01 -1.8490813243823780000
1967-05-01 -2.8384647064209396000
1967-06-01 -0.6952072368565929000
1967-07-01 -2.0160775182365800000
1967-08-01 3.5077746720860420000
1967-09-01 -0.5180599163043792000
1967-10-01 -0.1772303990394042700
1967-11-01 5.6416003470523854000
1967-12-01 3.7347792301228515000
1968-01-01 -1.7371301832726582000
1968-02-01 0.0987606417597437800
1968-03-01 0.8427702927618730000
1968-04-01 -0.4701778960517609000
1968-05-01 2.1662059599100210000
1968-06-01 0.0645231213093282600
1968-07-01 0.0792142235682446600
1968-08-01 -2.1567777400450790000
1968-09-01 1.5850435423458846000
1968-10-01 1.9775433263193647000
1968-11-01 2.2913274003939073000
1968-12-01 -0.7251924846468436000
1969-01-01 0.6287874002385975000
1969-02-01 0.9737681256055220000
1969-03-01 2.4829257075232200000
1969-04-01 0.2877752376552510000
1969-05-01 -1.2833046900483820000
1969-06-01 0.5040709653037119000
1969-07-01 0.3572734557314571000
1969-08-01 0.4262584384499832000
1969-09-01 -0.2607210348070506000
1969-10-01 -0.5389404206520895000
1969-11-01 -4.7962950122030845000
1969-12-01 -2.4203866967756404000
1970-01-01 -6.1505686938975215000
1970-02-01 -2.4697348348334020000
1970-03-01 -3.8089300994849700000
1970-04-01 -3.7117124605087053000
1970-05-01 -1.7916978275177533000
1970-06-01 -1.8136214219109892000
1970-07-01 -1.0118498589677190000
1970-08-01 -3.6464916745955134000
1970-09-01 -4.1613480193609920000
1970-10-01 -7.6543519617268840000
1970-11-01 -5.0356960855728870000
1970-12-01 6.1751753322208890000
1971-01-01 1.4801599759018127000
1971-02-01 0.0214924171611823520
1971-03-01 -0.2549426809887544000
1971-04-01 0.7054700616173974000
1971-05-01 1.2434122275343910000
1971-06-01 1.7797301170192008000
1971-07-01 -2.2775518489475997000
1971-08-01 -0.6765985296943776000
1971-09-01 3.3957897073778270000
1971-10-01 0.7883701172754009000
1971-11-01 2.3225222630303577000
1971-12-01 3.4983634571746367000
1972-01-01 4.7689143558005810000
1972-02-01 2.0274967918618323000
1972-03-01 2.8348118228154740000
1972-04-01 2.4652263013632703000
1972-05-01 1.0418414928513104000
1972-06-01 1.2625061995881113000
1972-07-01 -0.8458468388160635000
1972-08-01 4.8688849477272380000
1972-09-01 3.9935833849879390000
1972-10-01 4.5864283294360680000
1972-11-01 5.7762123429312600000
1972-12-01 4.8924179863154340000
1973-01-01 4.7764490728400970000
1973-02-01 5.3134393769622030000
1973-03-01 2.1970320528129470000
1973-04-01 0.3095600988565152500
1973-05-01 1.8563162300263307000
1973-06-01 1.1461335413398879000
1973-07-01 1.0403358949265690000
1973-08-01 0.2853721586157413300
1973-09-01 1.2444566246413986000
1973-10-01 5.0120544036144350000
1973-11-01 3.5048448217548240000
1973-12-01 -0.9469421413882434000
1974-01-01 -0.6014263402004117000
1974-02-01 -0.7722403741059513000
1974-03-01 -0.2444609092659632800
1974-04-01 -1.9705011056460840000
1974-05-01 0.9671848156224582000
1974-06-01 -1.9425839156793572000
1974-07-01 -1.5737846463914930000
1974-08-01 -3.7546640528829793000
1974-09-01 -3.2864113842272533000
1974-10-01 -5.0081896317600790000
1974-11-01 -11.6759912564934730000
1974-12-01 -16.4909013468825560000
1975-01-01 -8.9130502134854770000
1975-02-01 -10.5583845656384590000
1975-03-01 -9.9322866616777610000
1975-04-01 -1.0796425519569640000
1975-05-01 -2.1321067162809015000
1975-06-01 1.1103545491627802000
1975-07-01 4.1770198277609020000
1975-08-01 3.1264596418427730000
1975-09-01 3.7237646195093808000
1975-10-01 1.3640712209971484000
1975-11-01 0.0945067716124693300
1975-12-01 4.1026496313528070000
1976-01-01 5.2744932356100610000
1976-02-01 3.3114584902396778000
1976-03-01 1.3519330190266818000
1976-04-01 1.1104611676421060000
1976-05-01 1.4963051316242668000
1976-06-01 1.0599448224885173000
1976-07-01 1.2475554747961939000
1976-08-01 0.5653924105907104000
1976-09-01 0.5603117633005970000
1976-10-01 -0.7413712248505739000
1976-11-01 3.4801341982805850000
1976-12-01 4.5366954234780090000
1977-01-01 -1.0972209227128970000
1977-02-01 5.8913547963151425000
1977-03-01 5.2946844472098435000
1977-04-01 2.9900695863149753000
1977-05-01 2.3093676374742680000
1977-06-01 2.6911768483090650000
1977-07-01 0.6175420802684278000
1977-08-01 1.1036824156873715000
1977-09-01 0.4469633917418856500
1977-10-01 0.4709945910469670600
1977-11-01 1.1918581653252620000
1977-12-01 1.5524928113054195000
1978-01-01 -6.1944209170071270000
1978-02-01 3.7567527286025535000
1978-03-01 5.7742529575218450000
1978-04-01 7.1250935041791290000
1978-05-01 2.0100449847699897000
1978-06-01 2.9264268794137847000
1978-07-01 -0.4097959389137428000
1978-08-01 2.6342764793329300000
1978-09-01 1.2503304028164870000
1978-10-01 2.9179450112232490000
1978-11-01 2.9894148466766772000
1978-12-01 1.7040277515308175000
1979-01-01 -1.9465550978924107000
1979-02-01 0.7811881198702157000
1979-03-01 4.4732660531289880000
1979-04-01 -4.7955981251139890000
1979-05-01 5.4597020937919400000
1979-06-01 0.1014284600054908300
1979-07-01 -0.3347502016402734000
1979-08-01 -2.2419225562333454000
1979-09-01 -1.1609176556562149000
1979-10-01 1.2884412693822758000
1979-11-01 -1.0665107261906948000
1979-12-01 -0.2637078894747084700
1980-01-01 1.2002602310741840000
1980-02-01 -1.5972165386989197000
1980-03-01 -6.5169824551276390000
1980-04-01 -10.4557474786328100000
1980-05-01 -11.4439856454734040000
1980-06-01 -6.8755604357722890000
1980-07-01 -3.4515864411048440000
1980-08-01 0.9333461248014410000
1980-09-01 6.3016802027584555000
1980-10-01 5.5318295436710970000
1980-11-01 3.5830756180938077000
1980-12-01 1.9846019417917582000
1981-01-01 -0.6913012747690687000
1981-02-01 -1.8579352426196147000
1981-03-01 -0.8473008318157703000
1981-04-01 -0.1546343592909474600
1981-05-01 -0.7418910101556814000
1981-06-01 -0.7230694880001403000
1981-07-01 0.2725145287657645400
1981-08-01 -2.3303372850163360000
1981-09-01 -4.0728073410876230000
1981-10-01 -6.5785094694760025000
1981-11-01 -7.1250413898063990000
1981-12-01 -8.1040798750968420000
1982-01-01 -9.1812347672019600000
1982-02-01 3.8674537052944110000
1982-03-01 -4.3126050386744690000
1982-04-01 -5.0731751378926400000
1982-05-01 -2.9188454196650760000
1982-06-01 -3.2781132864125127000
1982-07-01 -3.4163768512160546000
1982-08-01 -5.8689974876448800000
1982-09-01 -3.5686770688198513000
1982-10-01 -5.9167325607734120000
1982-11-01 -3.3011545000503270000
1982-12-01 -2.3058889342728940000
1983-01-01 5.2922500080008390000
1983-02-01 -1.0329803705319225000
1983-03-01 3.7189362989374840000
1983-04-01 4.1226946498380315000
1983-05-01 4.3113263279440650000
1983-06-01 5.9607672032998390000
1983-07-01 4.6724734668103440000
1983-08-01 3.5293369798099996000
1983-09-01 6.2230518377556100000
1983-10-01 4.2235724259371340000
1983-11-01 3.8703568611075370000
1983-12-01 3.8409379407794813000
1984-01-01 5.3716885983780870000
1984-02-01 3.6778587488817975000
1984-03-01 1.2781808934792223000
1984-04-01 1.5493263899087224000
1984-05-01 2.2845335968247715000
1984-06-01 1.1661967232013190000
1984-07-01 -0.1433863356491286000
1984-08-01 -0.3018718579536519000
1984-09-01 -2.3218350848334905000
1984-10-01 0.6212493333333567000
1984-11-01 0.8968867163834622000
1984-12-01 -0.7476903073376956000
1985-01-01 -1.4403017622588483000
1985-02-01 -0.6487927329582720000
1985-03-01 1.2455506730985466000
1985-04-01 -1.4690138275607187000
1985-05-01 0.1405309835567379600
1985-06-01 -3.0317666626699260000
1985-07-01 -1.4147619112139556000
1985-08-01 1.3688716592148837000
1985-09-01 -0.4017591963564009000
1985-10-01 -0.8348688160888773000
1985-11-01 1.0764806098206006000
1985-12-01 0.0404995053894015000
1986-01-01 2.6386094530239976000
1986-02-01 -3.4483820031144710000
1986-03-01 -3.6170442716538824000
1986-04-01 0.8579775996264175000
1986-05-01 -1.1731172600745370000
1986-06-01 -0.7288029406589530000
1986-07-01 1.0126641897984567000
1986-08-01 0.1318793838090624200
1986-09-01 1.7994575585484782000
1986-10-01 -0.7549821432712672000
1986-11-01 0.0108607712487234200
1986-12-01 3.2232447665973027000
1987-01-01 -1.8934293398938928000
1987-02-01 5.5361593999175810000
1987-03-01 0.7260267735706523000
1987-04-01 1.4275654668876565000
1987-05-01 1.8745512516347640000
1987-06-01 2.4736324306428960000
1987-07-01 3.4198903128000860000
1987-08-01 0.9656573304007716000
1987-09-01 3.2712505750173760000
1987-10-01 3.3406101876444930000
1987-11-01 1.1475143348973782000
1987-12-01 2.0672499489451450000
1988-01-01 -0.7582539627062249000
1988-02-01 2.1147032067488880000
1988-03-01 2.1577642552110240000
1988-04-01 1.4869995963993015000
1988-05-01 0.2256177091162454600
1988-06-01 2.0126937151855070000
1988-07-01 -0.1240498686185949700
1988-08-01 0.5288113148368392000
1988-09-01 0.8263150252198067000
1988-10-01 1.2176712956991242000
1988-11-01 1.3078370721376147000
1988-12-01 2.7719166297088407000
1989-01-01 1.0080012027470562000
1989-02-01 -2.1487809353766680000
1989-03-01 -0.1218709369121866400
1989-04-01 0.8089072064787125000
1989-05-01 -1.9258041146634053000
1989-06-01 -1.8767335479071876000
1989-07-01 -4.2261141136930190000
1989-08-01 1.9592404331325297000
1989-09-01 -2.2324746288725800000
1989-10-01 -2.0017771145877843000
1989-11-01 0.6587631266816766000
1989-12-01 0.0219816155778087340
1990-01-01 0.2524664300067646000
1990-02-01 2.6645495008098960000
1990-03-01 1.1720189531441148000
1990-04-01 -2.8111684869515330000
1990-05-01 -0.0395061499454562000
1990-06-01 0.2118828918412407600
1990-07-01 -1.6202858605176100000
1990-08-01 0.3497472188795102700
1990-09-01 -2.4152243076359490000
1990-10-01 -2.6719655923873034000
1990-11-01 -6.2077899483579380000
1990-12-01 -4.1898643444585030000
1991-01-01 -4.6462063912020986000
1991-02-01 -4.5604644019419585000
1991-03-01 -4.6467705710542690000
1991-04-01 0.9099571558417621000
1991-05-01 1.1182022337789777000
1991-06-01 0.7043392660547837000
1991-07-01 1.7153272561373938000
1991-08-01 0.2186243893877208600
1991-09-01 1.6149640249664439000
1991-10-01 -0.5773982383292579000
1991-11-01 -1.3430187486452063000
1991-12-01 -3.3693625419029400000
1992-01-01 -0.6163212475979081000
1992-02-01 1.0853817472432410000
1992-03-01 2.9031263276875250000
1992-04-01 2.1201246408240713000
1992-05-01 0.4285488928306729300
1992-06-01 1.2074587327896082000
1992-07-01 1.9042871086845021000
1992-08-01 -2.3149734157947430000
1992-09-01 0.9235773454185504000
1992-10-01 1.3850362295141045000
1992-11-01 0.6616966393290764000
1992-12-01 1.5319856606998083000
1993-01-01 1.5409747335886740000
1993-02-01 0.8639171532842544000
1993-03-01 -0.7307086014843798000
1993-04-01 0.8708459588536821000
1993-05-01 0.0583169273462515100
1993-06-01 -0.1754179624523353700
1993-07-01 -0.5968117363184812000
1993-08-01 -0.3827790743772077000
1993-09-01 1.6221290819873888000
1993-10-01 2.2631050575791210000
1993-11-01 1.2889279591352403000
1993-12-01 1.9913929750880670000
1994-01-01 0.5115847347236575000
1994-02-01 1.0494382109657225000
1994-03-01 5.0166218483918790000
1994-04-01 2.0186098837864113000
1994-05-01 2.5936403910082460000
1994-06-01 2.8487613909887010000
1994-07-01 1.1176558795189590000
1994-08-01 3.5260432571744730000
1994-09-01 1.6100084370618100000
1994-10-01 2.6305604205183015000
1994-11-01 3.2965639958523850000
1994-12-01 3.6590604164137710000
1995-01-01 0.8038820933158117000
1995-02-01 -0.4132779570391245000
1995-03-01 -0.4575739860985134600
1995-04-01 -1.5316111403351556000
1995-05-01 -0.1168634566272952800
1995-06-01 0.3402819227504401000
1995-07-01 -2.1062467020942903000
1995-08-01 2.7097765802261033000
1995-09-01 1.4141919705840653000
1995-10-01 -1.0619251190827455000
1995-11-01 0.0807105581856881500
1995-12-01 0.7252356484704694000
1996-01-01 -3.4169324761565356000
1996-02-01 2.2207398949899550000
1996-03-01 0.6628306076767897000
1996-04-01 1.7986565623243749000
1996-05-01 2.1991231818436594000
1996-06-01 1.5403281219317622000
1996-07-01 0.1943696913884692000
1996-08-01 1.0956224909628650000
1996-09-01 1.4000921550037893000
1996-10-01 0.5584292985691310000
1996-11-01 2.0906454450139504000
1996-12-01 0.3121289790479029000
1997-01-01 0.3257939750686369400
1997-02-01 3.8998488562628890000
1997-03-01 1.5714864223687017000
1997-04-01 1.1972120486912560000
1997-05-01 0.4444651991275127000
1997-06-01 1.4463572276753283000
1997-07-01 2.4767790901122946000
1997-08-01 1.4398502574303400000
1997-09-01 2.0109172763779410000
1997-10-01 1.0691232891617144000
1997-11-01 1.5585272373786991000
1997-12-01 0.2650620516361451600
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1998-05-01 0.2184673058318458700
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2011-02-01 1.1498638763597608000
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