Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP
Series ID BBKMCLE
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-09-01
Last Updated 2026-11-02 7:33 AM CST
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The leading subcomponent of the cycle is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 0.5171723587
1960-02-01 1.2703747168
1960-03-01 1.6463656529
1960-04-01 1.9219361224
1960-05-01 1.4037257270
1960-06-01 1.2131714599
1960-07-01 1.0950678288
1960-08-01 0.9456822462
1960-09-01 0.6701955852
1960-10-01 0.6026959134
1960-11-01 0.6911236574
1960-12-01 0.5613782184
1961-01-01 0.7647889431
1961-02-01 0.4959312176
1961-03-01 0.2464304137
1961-04-01 -0.2075643381
1961-05-01 -0.2995588846
1961-06-01 -0.4215204869
1961-07-01 -0.7664513096
1961-08-01 -0.6353549228
1961-09-01 -0.3497747919
1961-10-01 0.1270505756
1961-11-01 0.2371253926
1961-12-01 0.2100613009
1962-01-01 0.3750581602
1962-02-01 0.3078662305
1962-03-01 0.4936564075
1962-04-01 0.7370707872
1962-05-01 0.7221887515
1962-06-01 0.5211539703
1962-07-01 0.4588355429
1962-08-01 0.4068167728
1962-09-01 0.2223614578
1962-10-01 0.1780053283
1962-11-01 0.2818799378
1962-12-01 0.1048237939
1963-01-01 -0.0915773019
1963-02-01 -0.1002061028
1963-03-01 0.0749019085
1963-04-01 0.1761394440
1963-05-01 0.2540159871
1963-06-01 0.3755593788
1963-07-01 0.5552888260
1963-08-01 0.4897644925
1963-09-01 0.5275478968
1963-10-01 0.4030370511
1963-11-01 0.3611697981
1963-12-01 0.5210208223
1964-01-01 0.5999071846
1964-02-01 0.8172153727
1964-03-01 0.6681422795
1964-04-01 0.6538974509
1964-05-01 0.5951307609
1964-06-01 0.4951648190
1964-07-01 0.3732884365
1964-08-01 0.2652082921
1964-09-01 0.0393294730
1964-10-01 -0.0996353810
1964-11-01 -0.2601052717
1964-12-01 0.0474380725
1965-01-01 0.1361057872
1965-02-01 0.5735927274
1965-03-01 0.6735236190
1965-04-01 0.7665323273
1965-05-01 1.0556426033
1965-06-01 1.0357438510
1965-07-01 1.3487721983
1965-08-01 1.6938291490
1965-09-01 1.7120433154
1965-10-01 1.5164585628
1965-11-01 0.9922063361
1965-12-01 0.5617202182
1966-01-01 0.1464281726
1966-02-01 -0.1006493937
1966-03-01 -0.0743536815
1966-04-01 -0.1364188698
1966-05-01 -0.1247896365
1966-06-01 0.0720310619
1966-07-01 0.1880918058
1966-08-01 0.1703144413
1966-09-01 0.4461143859
1966-10-01 0.8154061477
1966-11-01 1.4097137362
1966-12-01 1.5525543067
1967-01-01 1.8945831185
1967-02-01 1.6537002904
1967-03-01 1.6256699705
1967-04-01 1.6218667803
1967-05-01 1.3944748754
1967-06-01 1.1246196849
1967-07-01 0.9269546056
1967-08-01 0.6309272785
1967-09-01 0.5738681407
1967-10-01 0.3559849084
1967-11-01 0.3793217245
1967-12-01 0.6609556204
1968-01-01 1.0345191691
1968-02-01 1.3611228948
1968-03-01 1.3639453862
1968-04-01 1.1549858164
1968-05-01 1.0975447568
1968-06-01 0.9834663931
1968-07-01 0.8092193133
1968-08-01 0.7288641903
1968-09-01 0.3479853341
1968-10-01 0.0751031187
1968-11-01 0.1816335688
1968-12-01 0.2578976977
1969-01-01 0.4256184600
1969-02-01 0.2223923540
1969-03-01 -0.0805490707
1969-04-01 -0.0836611206
1969-05-01 -0.0638305602
1969-06-01 -0.2467239991
1969-07-01 -0.2955874490
1969-08-01 -0.0880694121
1969-09-01 -0.1056427572
1969-10-01 -0.0557843613
1969-11-01 0.1394512522
1969-12-01 0.2222823731
1970-01-01 0.2955769495
1970-02-01 0.4908786898
1970-03-01 0.5783559617
1970-04-01 0.6479470647
1970-05-01 0.6698355033
1970-06-01 0.8384442483
1970-07-01 1.0914464438
1970-08-01 1.1582773547
1970-09-01 0.9998638666
1970-10-01 0.8454706275
1970-11-01 0.7252345201
1970-12-01 0.7245451605
1971-01-01 0.8959502706
1971-02-01 0.7324214295
1971-03-01 0.7083263191
1971-04-01 0.6037977659
1971-05-01 0.3271075192
1971-06-01 0.1378427285
1971-07-01 0.1371389877
1971-08-01 0.0575350327
1971-09-01 -0.1392025699
1971-10-01 -0.1477703098
1971-11-01 0.0906472647
1971-12-01 0.4766648566
1972-01-01 0.6653088503
1972-02-01 0.6138946077
1972-03-01 0.7449220062
1972-04-01 0.5138019240
1972-05-01 0.3856690376
1972-06-01 0.3341502630
1972-07-01 0.2156077596
1972-08-01 0.0910169706
1972-09-01 -0.0213115340
1972-10-01 -0.0366626303
1972-11-01 -0.4223183633
1972-12-01 -0.4604670863
1973-01-01 -0.6127172281
1973-02-01 -0.8847865416
1973-03-01 -1.1219621428
1973-04-01 -1.3338609320
1973-05-01 -1.3292393917
1973-06-01 -1.4294920263
1973-07-01 -1.6216019651
1973-08-01 -2.1724124647
1973-09-01 -1.9794023172
1973-10-01 -2.2424073981
1973-11-01 -2.2061986136
1973-12-01 -2.3635072437
1974-01-01 -2.0927490831
1974-02-01 -1.6584566216
1974-03-01 -1.2642155979
1974-04-01 -0.9393774479
1974-05-01 -0.6971125410
1974-06-01 -0.6170725296
1974-07-01 -0.5860104988
1974-08-01 -0.4356613900
1974-09-01 -0.2127341963
1974-10-01 0.3979762314
1974-11-01 1.0464443018
1974-12-01 1.9019497300
1975-01-01 1.9264683863
1975-02-01 1.9165875922
1975-03-01 1.8278835841
1975-04-01 1.4364752773
1975-05-01 1.1655178121
1975-06-01 0.4143690525
1975-07-01 0.0130675750
1975-08-01 -0.0695650687
1975-09-01 -0.2437263277
1975-10-01 -0.1085566791
1975-11-01 -0.0548015655
1975-12-01 -0.0783218367
1976-01-01 0.1398620498
1976-02-01 0.0856414008
1976-03-01 -0.0105432670
1976-04-01 -0.0277426552
1976-05-01 -0.1672616524
1976-06-01 -0.1595854855
1976-07-01 -0.0671449020
1976-08-01 0.0021178614
1976-09-01 0.1394414676
1976-10-01 0.0175124668
1976-11-01 0.0225638865
1976-12-01 -0.1679018311
1977-01-01 -0.4825703312
1977-02-01 -0.3902845586
1977-03-01 -0.3372908431
1977-04-01 -0.0574961652
1977-05-01 0.1484606817
1977-06-01 0.2220909501
1977-07-01 0.3196759118
1977-08-01 0.2168607216
1977-09-01 0.2084585655
1977-10-01 0.0993882111
1977-11-01 -0.0287792165
1977-12-01 0.0157968552
1978-01-01 0.2017657234
1978-02-01 0.5756844233
1978-03-01 0.9115845795
1978-04-01 0.8044233901
1978-05-01 0.4201834081
1978-06-01 0.1950698412
1978-07-01 -0.1574372703
1978-08-01 -0.3745782930
1978-09-01 -0.4697727379
1978-10-01 -0.6429837094
1978-11-01 -0.8689940500
1978-12-01 -1.0760839136
1979-01-01 -1.4171382117
1979-02-01 -1.4106412629
1979-03-01 -1.5031628959
1979-04-01 -1.6930617482
1979-05-01 -1.5024356190
1979-06-01 -1.2417580730
1979-07-01 -1.0260576028
1979-08-01 -0.7565163726
1979-09-01 -0.9663556848
1979-10-01 -1.3968481428
1979-11-01 -1.5151971856
1979-12-01 -1.6420026098
1980-01-01 -1.6714315232
1980-02-01 -1.6264436186
1980-03-01 -1.3564505585
1980-04-01 -0.8701119963
1980-05-01 -0.1179237437
1980-06-01 0.5467303308
1980-07-01 0.6435373075
1980-08-01 0.0767512126
1980-09-01 -0.4182952073
1980-10-01 -0.5895154446
1980-11-01 -0.5609396480
1980-12-01 -0.4285736146
1981-01-01 -0.2488112813
1981-02-01 -0.4248529405
1981-03-01 -0.4359900173
1981-04-01 -0.6256323701
1981-05-01 -0.6991062746
1981-06-01 -0.6648847787
1981-07-01 -0.4573613040
1981-08-01 -0.2465200951
1981-09-01 -0.2242940373
1981-10-01 0.2272848656
1981-11-01 0.5733173765
1981-12-01 0.6174883597
1982-01-01 0.5761384001
1982-02-01 0.5443863159
1982-03-01 0.5105279308
1982-04-01 0.4327029682
1982-05-01 0.3408074412
1982-06-01 0.2701294991
1982-07-01 0.8090473942
1982-08-01 1.1142732004
1982-09-01 1.4039778255
1982-10-01 1.5069331157
1982-11-01 1.4458777489
1982-12-01 1.0999836954
1983-01-01 0.6380048108
1983-02-01 0.2674426328
1983-03-01 0.3346919660
1983-04-01 0.1795594838
1983-05-01 0.0773939924
1983-06-01 -0.0961773001
1983-07-01 -0.1628409480
1983-08-01 -0.2916360879
1983-09-01 -0.1927245362
1983-10-01 -0.2248761860
1983-11-01 -0.2591250904
1983-12-01 -0.0666604676
1984-01-01 0.1049115908
1984-02-01 0.1694796982
1984-03-01 0.3709565290
1984-04-01 0.6950091153
1984-05-01 0.6191930365
1984-06-01 0.5421723318
1984-07-01 0.3554541201
1984-08-01 0.4220819604
1984-09-01 0.6387398898
1984-10-01 0.4722770611
1984-11-01 0.7537980225
1984-12-01 0.7299091579
1985-01-01 0.7616694099
1985-02-01 0.7243357413
1985-03-01 0.5423832430
1985-04-01 0.6693662550
1985-05-01 0.8781515834
1985-06-01 1.0580032209
1985-07-01 0.8912112437
1985-08-01 0.7574012906
1985-09-01 0.6377740386
1985-10-01 0.1956602320
1985-11-01 0.1973507139
1985-12-01 0.4943298470
1986-01-01 0.3205166662
1986-02-01 0.5241066065
1986-03-01 0.7348139181
1986-04-01 0.4421539633
1986-05-01 0.1612586619
1986-06-01 -0.1040326210
1986-07-01 -0.1834738610
1986-08-01 -0.3031168089
1986-09-01 -0.3273115891
1986-10-01 -0.4895226994
1986-11-01 -0.5191642280
1986-12-01 -0.7010047489
1987-01-01 -1.1347651698
1987-02-01 -0.8843394661
1987-03-01 -0.8985299741
1987-04-01 -0.8966717853
1987-05-01 -0.8286736690
1987-06-01 -0.9468047844
1987-07-01 -0.8280438121
1987-08-01 -0.6526860253
1987-09-01 -0.8792904010
1987-10-01 -0.7280957712
1987-11-01 -0.5976246562
1987-12-01 -0.5307444138
1988-01-01 -0.3533798711
1988-02-01 -0.2329901176
1988-03-01 -0.3222510805
1988-04-01 -0.3689066682
1988-05-01 -0.3390486467
1988-06-01 -0.3925316483
1988-07-01 -0.3362030938
1988-08-01 -0.2606039644
1988-09-01 -0.2926177781
1988-10-01 -0.0236917943
1988-11-01 -0.1643737879
1988-12-01 -0.1830983003
1989-01-01 -0.2121076046
1989-02-01 -0.3249097451
1989-03-01 -0.3541692717
1989-04-01 -0.2101825697
1989-05-01 0.0112924079
1989-06-01 0.4417271478
1989-07-01 0.6064760038
1989-08-01 0.4522800353
1989-09-01 0.3002233755
1989-10-01 -0.0216246978
1989-11-01 -0.2761724204
1989-12-01 -0.3574779324
1990-01-01 -0.5461968624
1990-02-01 -1.0083997194
1990-03-01 -0.9356461877
1990-04-01 -1.0005555721
1990-05-01 -1.0485991204
1990-06-01 -1.2634873341
1990-07-01 -1.5110397797
1990-08-01 -1.7988846392
1990-09-01 -1.6944747842
1990-10-01 -1.4923612095
1990-11-01 -0.9426784695
1990-12-01 -0.6379438595
1991-01-01 -0.2891570543
1991-02-01 0.3433737264
1991-03-01 0.4169626505
1991-04-01 -0.0610377723
1991-05-01 -0.4258590923
1991-06-01 -0.6796492236
1991-07-01 -0.9226545391
1991-08-01 -1.0542459792
1991-09-01 -0.9654179922
1991-10-01 -0.7890781149
1991-11-01 -0.4456529753
1991-12-01 -0.0957634783
1992-01-01 0.0935141163
1992-02-01 -0.1687149608
1992-03-01 -0.3329377441
1992-04-01 -0.2929434266
1992-05-01 -0.3761881341
1992-06-01 -0.5378659875
1992-07-01 -0.4423510974
1992-08-01 -0.2545256185
1992-09-01 -0.2779621529
1992-10-01 -0.3647362144
1992-11-01 -0.4344691633
1992-12-01 -0.4888100846
1993-01-01 -0.9838357520
1993-02-01 -0.9398667060
1993-03-01 -0.7057778889
1993-04-01 -0.3403648923
1993-05-01 -0.3194232400
1993-06-01 0.0046990521
1993-07-01 0.2039756929
1993-08-01 0.1580481469
1993-09-01 0.1468335908
1993-10-01 0.0771730094
1993-11-01 0.0845318295
1993-12-01 0.0374626462
1994-01-01 -0.3560561956
1994-02-01 -0.5978787574
1994-03-01 -0.7307744299
1994-04-01 -0.8774213281
1994-05-01 -1.0227170301
1994-06-01 -1.0465898956
1994-07-01 -1.1326589567
1994-08-01 -1.1594627291
1994-09-01 -1.0197733252
1994-10-01 -0.9669259712
1994-11-01 -1.0749946177
1994-12-01 -1.0921419980
1995-01-01 -1.0751745741
1995-02-01 -0.8781282835
1995-03-01 -0.5483352261
1995-04-01 -0.3375199721
1995-05-01 -0.0112700408
1995-06-01 0.2180351243
1995-07-01 0.2804986996
1995-08-01 0.1577971836
1995-09-01 0.0750172084
1995-10-01 0.0255177399
1995-11-01 0.1993435363
1995-12-01 0.1414624716
1996-01-01 0.1076246616
1996-02-01 0.3529745515
1996-03-01 0.2847040948
1996-04-01 0.0909751842
1996-05-01 0.0593294567
1996-06-01 -0.0519581652
1996-07-01 -0.1388776926
1996-08-01 -0.1243136171
1996-09-01 -0.2873461423
1996-10-01 -0.2543087175
1996-11-01 -0.2296431184
1996-12-01 -0.2810509907
1997-01-01 -0.1296879835
1997-02-01 -0.0082665757
1997-03-01 0.1475915386
1997-04-01 0.2803200668
1997-05-01 0.4476417290
1997-06-01 0.4070080365
1997-07-01 0.5583653935
1997-08-01 0.4922451771
1997-09-01 0.3821784314
1997-10-01 0.4094070083
1997-11-01 0.3600840887
1997-12-01 0.5882057248
1998-01-01 0.8251096756
1998-02-01 0.9762846416
1998-03-01 1.0535128018
1998-04-01 1.1424410625
1998-05-01 1.1126563541
1998-06-01 1.1167679578
1998-07-01 0.9625169264
1998-08-01 0.8888618715
1998-09-01 0.8757907824
1998-10-01 0.9125801458
1998-11-01 0.8081183312
1998-12-01 0.6356416194
1999-01-01 0.3997710463
1999-02-01 0.2424192270
1999-03-01 0.1771257302
1999-04-01 -0.0055848732
1999-05-01 0.0991348680
1999-06-01 0.1736074790
1999-07-01 0.0694372191
1999-08-01 -0.0947003316
1999-09-01 -0.0552065650
1999-10-01 0.0195062904
1999-11-01 0.0660101782
1999-12-01 0.1077091478
2000-01-01 -0.0353432385
2000-02-01 -0.0257375884
2000-03-01 -0.1785197222
2000-04-01 -0.0359907701
2000-05-01 -0.0294662674
2000-06-01 -0.0078506397
2000-07-01 0.0408885007
2000-08-01 0.2457514545
2000-09-01 0.2415945859
2000-10-01 0.2998479576
2000-11-01 0.3643070119
2000-12-01 0.2493250167
2001-01-01 0.3180939642
2001-02-01 0.6452500804
2001-03-01 0.9175629028
2001-04-01 0.9802880351
2001-05-01 1.0141352842
2001-06-01 1.0410878603
2001-07-01 0.9129587040
2001-08-01 0.8919216136
2001-09-01 0.7597168026
2001-10-01 1.3285839136
2001-11-01 1.4185481405
2001-12-01 1.3135744949
2002-01-01 1.0538069134
2002-02-01 0.7134870372
2002-03-01 0.1135842791
2002-04-01 -0.2828550177
2002-05-01 -0.2805619000
2002-06-01 -0.1967986336
2002-07-01 -0.1467586171
2002-08-01 -0.0655878325
2002-09-01 0.0486728874
2002-10-01 0.0711338535
2002-11-01 0.2141664576
2002-12-01 0.1400884803
2003-01-01 -0.1036523985
2003-02-01 -0.0825962834
2003-03-01 0.2701633966
2003-04-01 0.8541201593
2003-05-01 0.9686061483
2003-06-01 0.8737379971
2003-07-01 0.6418538690
2003-08-01 0.3545918570
2003-09-01 -0.0549496767
2003-10-01 -0.0762554810
2003-11-01 -0.3590694871
2003-12-01 -0.7064520792
2004-01-01 -0.9230511190
2004-02-01 -1.0310157944
2004-03-01 -0.9621683112
2004-04-01 -1.0124428724
2004-05-01 -0.9995728713
2004-06-01 -1.0969843329
2004-07-01 -0.7777873037
2004-08-01 -0.7960965980
2004-09-01 -0.7285319700
2004-10-01 -0.7065118061
2004-11-01 -0.7795998890
2004-12-01 -0.6716840299
2005-01-01 -0.8296231532
2005-02-01 -0.7558411902
2005-03-01 -0.7772078998
2005-04-01 -0.6345640687
2005-05-01 -0.4262230524
2005-06-01 -0.3023295412
2005-07-01 -0.6574397595
2005-08-01 -1.1542992857
2005-09-01 -1.3626880915
2005-10-01 -0.8579562552
2005-11-01 -0.4581755597
2005-12-01 -0.2459771129
2006-01-01 -0.1975147447
2006-02-01 -0.4323135706
2006-03-01 -0.6555606934
2006-04-01 -0.9450201464
2006-05-01 -1.1817040433
2006-06-01 -1.0184978929
2006-07-01 -0.9363527467
2006-08-01 -0.5875969562
2006-09-01 0.0997700304
2006-10-01 0.3904468635
2006-11-01 0.2500098039
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2009-01-01 1.6937518808
2009-02-01 1.4752138670
2009-03-01 1.3096815894
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2023-02-01 1.4640384480
2023-03-01 1.4871311187
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2024-02-01 1.2557443475
2024-03-01 1.0367104565
2024-04-01 1.0093713443
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2026-06-01 -0.6358968936
2026-07-01 -0.6668867958
2026-08-01 -0.6975484638
2026-09-01 -0.7082744838

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