Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP
Series ID BBKMCLE
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-04-01
Last Updated 2026-06-01 7:33 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The leading subcomponent of the cycle is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 0.52760048820575370000
1960-02-01 1.22246943545308230000
1960-03-01 1.57560465246342840000
1960-04-01 1.83255516042693460000
1960-05-01 1.36359528264656450000
1960-06-01 1.18475060955387560000
1960-07-01 1.06821680126802380000
1960-08-01 0.92303242436684580000
1960-09-01 0.66474841869216630000
1960-10-01 0.59483795505704600000
1960-11-01 0.66631577279366080000
1960-12-01 0.53811649784343980000
1961-01-01 0.70845622395292160000
1961-02-01 0.45036523550942464000
1961-03-01 0.20842165076384683000
1961-04-01 -0.21710793462091604000
1961-05-01 -0.31336308646461775000
1961-06-01 -0.43294336603760390000
1961-07-01 -0.74777367787820470000
1961-08-01 -0.62667581158958880000
1961-09-01 -0.36043087399584217000
1961-10-01 0.08082071802360578000
1961-11-01 0.19121237069672550000
1961-12-01 0.17903152278444884000
1962-01-01 0.33801191808152736000
1962-02-01 0.28723344742310936000
1962-03-01 0.46060049284821470000
1962-04-01 0.68505432267138440000
1962-05-01 0.67436149717955480000
1962-06-01 0.49178193298220374000
1962-07-01 0.43168676025541336000
1962-08-01 0.38010022765469690000
1962-09-01 0.20745202878629118000
1962-10-01 0.16033809541969415000
1962-11-01 0.25024504073385780000
1962-12-01 0.08801797185241436000
1963-01-01 -0.09013724622652003000
1963-02-01 -0.09761177995105821000
1963-03-01 0.06150393053911929000
1963-04-01 0.15664313380438055000
1963-05-01 0.23133042183669775000
1963-06-01 0.34592453057221784000
1963-07-01 0.51291321285519550000
1963-08-01 0.45764999318049293000
1963-09-01 0.49363753875465627000
1963-10-01 0.38403811689980900000
1963-11-01 0.34922928053743140000
1963-12-01 0.49598970673991740000
1964-01-01 0.57149854809634790000
1964-02-01 0.77007364633226800000
1964-03-01 0.63667503533503860000
1964-04-01 0.62234145835733470000
1964-05-01 0.56518820015769290000
1964-06-01 0.46877343370857770000
1964-07-01 0.35276266283406243000
1964-08-01 0.24923619809026915000
1964-09-01 0.04031674327000361000
1964-10-01 -0.08924172703649380000
1964-11-01 -0.23348757811450385000
1964-12-01 0.04831395156364563000
1965-01-01 0.13830553694665426000
1965-02-01 0.54529031120580980000
1965-03-01 0.64935425287917330000
1965-04-01 0.74644510075612760000
1965-05-01 1.01814194628047880000
1965-06-01 1.01017895466895700000
1965-07-01 1.29993640019258570000
1965-08-01 1.61392056828627200000
1965-09-01 1.62766695238659450000
1965-10-01 1.44085848643691470000
1965-11-01 0.95321511259669640000
1965-12-01 0.54862171001549980000
1966-01-01 0.15910807509635103000
1966-02-01 -0.07411610662840967000
1966-03-01 -0.05543459732043437000
1966-04-01 -0.11051494393673993000
1966-05-01 -0.09506737745959361000
1966-06-01 0.08948765616111964000
1966-07-01 0.20353475180300593000
1966-08-01 0.20041968712260590000
1966-09-01 0.46549391522295397000
1966-10-01 0.81752928902541900000
1966-11-01 1.37057587537930580000
1966-12-01 1.51282113550421630000
1967-01-01 1.82773719700196870000
1967-02-01 1.61322758976063740000
1967-03-01 1.58583145467502650000
1967-04-01 1.57696100672583600000
1967-05-01 1.36326728835205560000
1967-06-01 1.11009725470760900000
1967-07-01 0.92028249860628000000
1967-08-01 0.64505862243694490000
1967-09-01 0.58586612237149300000
1967-10-01 0.38418528803500956000
1967-11-01 0.40732521134822747000
1967-12-01 0.66627664460918010000
1968-01-01 1.00880635144401180000
1968-02-01 1.31053678137656760000
1968-03-01 1.31661608520831700000
1968-04-01 1.12832444367417930000
1968-05-01 1.07180657042239600000
1968-06-01 0.96120933395542810000
1968-07-01 0.79406614066440410000
1968-08-01 0.70945339620324250000
1968-09-01 0.35367501936838920000
1968-10-01 0.10093028234629006000
1968-11-01 0.19357815351776500000
1968-12-01 0.25975271887932017000
1969-01-01 0.40785075769754700000
1969-02-01 0.22024412994017029000
1969-03-01 -0.05813160779030212400
1969-04-01 -0.06686113486034097000
1969-05-01 -0.05294718715905189600
1969-06-01 -0.21852260073982577000
1969-07-01 -0.26167630671391500000
1969-08-01 -0.07155542801335815000
1969-09-01 -0.08374166994842784000
1969-10-01 -0.03247172885311426000
1969-11-01 0.15025113905324940000
1969-12-01 0.23438130142995436000
1970-01-01 0.30725614692719680000
1970-02-01 0.48972081712548180000
1970-03-01 0.57420788771944700000
1970-04-01 0.64172013336246110000
1970-05-01 0.66652173986492570000
1970-06-01 0.82386779461684700000
1970-07-01 1.05651461860021000000
1970-08-01 1.11681500858586610000
1970-09-01 0.97093511119680480000
1970-10-01 0.82712420357663140000
1970-11-01 0.71441259410348880000
1970-12-01 0.71002552031408750000
1971-01-01 0.85960585812051180000
1971-02-01 0.70674831217743280000
1971-03-01 0.67828546599173460000
1971-04-01 0.57747315230060480000
1971-05-01 0.32172942365747736000
1971-06-01 0.14571887644740170000
1971-07-01 0.14008267184346457000
1971-08-01 0.06485605356394053000
1971-09-01 -0.11323271696304196000
1971-10-01 -0.12131554081533596000
1971-11-01 0.09733725649382920000
1971-12-01 0.45089976362679600000
1972-01-01 0.62675402408995550000
1972-02-01 0.58666774521825180000
1972-03-01 0.70578724699709890000
1972-04-01 0.49556845998817184000
1972-05-01 0.37508285302767497000
1972-06-01 0.32113271816876050000
1972-07-01 0.20523379122802418000
1972-08-01 0.08341916426209290000
1972-09-01 -0.02819289393268062700
1972-10-01 -0.05364254493600089500
1972-11-01 -0.41382782300953497000
1972-12-01 -0.46073700107994250000
1973-01-01 -0.60895108431728160000
1973-02-01 -0.86634257621206310000
1973-03-01 -1.09321866969731030000
1973-04-01 -1.29643715471370440000
1973-05-01 -1.30291842121473820000
1973-06-01 -1.40412565695369170000
1973-07-01 -1.58915909951305560000
1973-08-01 -2.09437672793404700000
1973-09-01 -1.93023391277749060000
1973-10-01 -2.17204680922177130000
1973-11-01 -2.14134551685886000000
1973-12-01 -2.27688340325538500000
1974-01-01 -2.01849139061661640000
1974-02-01 -1.60805542351381540000
1974-03-01 -1.23112291010901400000
1974-04-01 -0.91755179349571660000
1974-05-01 -0.67997068698400200000
1974-06-01 -0.58925173453765400000
1974-07-01 -0.54086417068871030000
1974-08-01 -0.38411786041705187000
1974-09-01 -0.15614674101700310000
1974-10-01 0.42248281195535864000
1974-11-01 1.03309038495442020000
1974-12-01 1.82301036667970900000
1975-01-01 1.85533436116922370000
1975-02-01 1.84432571634335500000
1975-03-01 1.75653765136940440000
1975-04-01 1.38769991533727500000
1975-05-01 1.11836142876889790000
1975-06-01 0.41580880963729590000
1975-07-01 0.03274864413241128000
1975-08-01 -0.05808526811498260000
1975-09-01 -0.22528881619342786000
1975-10-01 -0.11165916465844644000
1975-11-01 -0.06426595900358102000
1975-12-01 -0.08296559222554238000
1976-01-01 0.11564991638286759000
1976-02-01 0.06776992657463805000
1976-03-01 -0.01688000672337713000
1976-04-01 -0.03075684570496076800
1976-05-01 -0.15622109389514720000
1976-06-01 -0.14853528910652394000
1976-07-01 -0.06406727529424265000
1976-08-01 -0.00236772231133178500
1976-09-01 0.12115615306284930000
1976-10-01 0.00905220158320200900
1976-11-01 0.00947343331121164800
1976-12-01 -0.16778000296042955000
1977-01-01 -0.45599465679834270000
1977-02-01 -0.37205795228396743000
1977-03-01 -0.32137659101276260000
1977-04-01 -0.06250039908402173000
1977-05-01 0.13137828978504665000
1977-06-01 0.20612952491936795000
1977-07-01 0.29950296489677730000
1977-08-01 0.20956390803550456000
1977-09-01 0.20266044118211400000
1977-10-01 0.10412826851748694000
1977-11-01 -0.00950216730714104800
1977-12-01 0.03426482926418441400
1978-01-01 0.20736495394393550000
1978-02-01 0.55064308251583200000
1978-03-01 0.85532963018377840000
1978-04-01 0.75428366524236010000
1978-05-01 0.39867299737379860000
1978-06-01 0.18186351407458598000
1978-07-01 -0.15162597072278170000
1978-08-01 -0.36199830734401970000
1978-09-01 -0.46225169398736750000
1978-10-01 -0.63212110803537420000
1978-11-01 -0.84878180246494630000
1978-12-01 -1.04904078215867800000
1979-01-01 -1.36884589831938520000
1979-02-01 -1.37360712799515300000
1979-03-01 -1.46501529724538940000
1979-04-01 -1.63917040862384680000
1979-05-01 -1.46380196212556220000
1979-06-01 -1.22242144624753470000
1979-07-01 -1.02237780919594570000
1979-08-01 -0.77851141725374680000
1979-09-01 -0.97106997833490190000
1979-10-01 -1.36217745205700760000
1979-11-01 -1.47318595741663330000
1979-12-01 -1.58743908501936230000
1980-01-01 -1.60661501880908300000
1980-02-01 -1.55273946427528000000
1980-03-01 -1.29073524770467400000
1980-04-01 -0.83253773782506820000
1980-05-01 -0.13927040000399240000
1980-06-01 0.46791264017226650000
1980-07-01 0.55534511011899170000
1980-08-01 0.03772198081549451400
1980-09-01 -0.41677320834943140000
1980-10-01 -0.57613658419097940000
1980-11-01 -0.54937114819831350000
1980-12-01 -0.42714480731487103000
1981-01-01 -0.26377230653178235000
1981-02-01 -0.42222664195964170000
1981-03-01 -0.43336294717262885000
1981-04-01 -0.60485044568257670000
1981-05-01 -0.66749362091946940000
1981-06-01 -0.62982880143741880000
1981-07-01 -0.43306195333582320000
1981-08-01 -0.23021052758895075000
1981-09-01 -0.19492614360841684000
1981-10-01 0.22540378564287610000
1981-11-01 0.54784112369515490000
1981-12-01 0.59265744620437310000
1982-01-01 0.55558816215208660000
1982-02-01 0.53102598251488390000
1982-03-01 0.50089008150152610000
1982-04-01 0.43283277439795476000
1982-05-01 0.35108691927332080000
1982-06-01 0.29417837351630777000
1982-07-01 0.78728025558502110000
1982-08-01 1.06997591886587480000
1982-09-01 1.33593171743954930000
1982-10-01 1.42668305245670300000
1982-11-01 1.36176623985390630000
1982-12-01 1.03595000444417270000
1983-01-01 0.60190199868266810000
1983-02-01 0.25487851751911655000
1983-03-01 0.30397804429666886000
1983-04-01 0.15444924166459448000
1983-05-01 0.05344322943184557000
1983-06-01 -0.10771692476947058000
1983-07-01 -0.16988853357222860000
1983-08-01 -0.28604570084767520000
1983-09-01 -0.19697270854260307000
1983-10-01 -0.22527064411811650000
1983-11-01 -0.25084796359060013000
1983-12-01 -0.07090357537212440000
1984-01-01 0.09310386510291369000
1984-02-01 0.16393122951187894000
1984-03-01 0.35654578243853350000
1984-04-01 0.65846879612091260000
1984-05-01 0.59593229035755820000
1984-06-01 0.52916266212674870000
1984-07-01 0.36304159576069384000
1984-08-01 0.42610921229253980000
1984-09-01 0.62229206586406190000
1984-10-01 0.47403510139678495000
1984-11-01 0.72920249813393630000
1984-12-01 0.70900150215221380000
1985-01-01 0.73410823634312540000
1985-02-01 0.70238567650208830000
1985-03-01 0.53879858631201420000
1985-04-01 0.65448023989550610000
1985-05-01 0.84495164498801430000
1985-06-01 1.00756500791852050000
1985-07-01 0.85368939690150380000
1985-08-01 0.72754545558447800000
1985-09-01 0.61338657612368750000
1985-10-01 0.20921087056735630000
1985-11-01 0.20648646687550337000
1985-12-01 0.47207411838568120000
1986-01-01 0.31316598790864614000
1986-02-01 0.49579735734416003000
1986-03-01 0.68075064123557560000
1986-04-01 0.40827830353183510000
1986-05-01 0.14509878522469072000
1986-06-01 -0.10526106502854894000
1986-07-01 -0.18809949529128878000
1986-08-01 -0.30742296319772360000
1986-09-01 -0.34021698851650456000
1986-10-01 -0.49519403570361230000
1986-11-01 -0.53214492619387230000
1986-12-01 -0.70558822913324670000
1987-01-01 -1.10432408484847480000
1987-02-01 -0.88294681766419090000
1987-03-01 -0.89681361705271530000
1987-04-01 -0.89382595917690290000
1987-05-01 -0.83209287280264620000
1987-06-01 -0.93863764855843190000
1987-07-01 -0.82930621986310930000
1987-08-01 -0.66616982911198300000
1987-09-01 -0.86409927253668140000
1987-10-01 -0.72042446544471230000
1987-11-01 -0.59652744419700940000
1987-12-01 -0.52916033698622060000
1988-01-01 -0.36609158440528633000
1988-02-01 -0.25323860545687266000
1988-03-01 -0.33193801024977304000
1988-04-01 -0.37221474475360410000
1988-05-01 -0.34425802897512636000
1988-06-01 -0.39010219498605664000
1988-07-01 -0.33680529304422400000
1988-08-01 -0.26662820054061903000
1988-09-01 -0.29355482052457750000
1988-10-01 -0.04930207713491498000
1988-11-01 -0.17380757395318136000
1988-12-01 -0.18958465533102430000
1989-01-01 -0.21413935066573125000
1989-02-01 -0.31093532009238106000
1989-03-01 -0.33150275179655286000
1989-04-01 -0.19468571790427522000
1989-05-01 0.01307521686815223500
1989-06-01 0.40800104968155987000
1989-07-01 0.55768168606580800000
1989-08-01 0.41461649463557615000
1989-09-01 0.26935893313956005000
1989-10-01 -0.03160254051725446000
1989-11-01 -0.27319146958172460000
1989-12-01 -0.36138615315645350000
1990-01-01 -0.54716363950658760000
1990-02-01 -0.97558235503809480000
1990-03-01 -0.92274652962361890000
1990-04-01 -0.98996999601902760000
1990-05-01 -1.04064567811547310000
1990-06-01 -1.24193147471983110000
1990-07-01 -1.46990963239341100000
1990-08-01 -1.72894091844972260000
1990-09-01 -1.62929602473565100000
1990-10-01 -1.43672571830699770000
1990-11-01 -0.92652226407198060000
1990-12-01 -0.63584993865372990000
1991-01-01 -0.30943170507521410000
1991-02-01 0.26852944845825790000
1991-03-01 0.33557106068169423000
1991-04-01 -0.09941168589734428000
1991-05-01 -0.43669429241044877000
1991-06-01 -0.67477616045518450000
1991-07-01 -0.90078373031583530000
1991-08-01 -1.02160128729998620000
1991-09-01 -0.93895406673486600000
1991-10-01 -0.77233220374250590000
1991-11-01 -0.45310572925781130000
1991-12-01 -0.13216041912782320000
1992-01-01 0.04344043855357113000
1992-02-01 -0.19677144617317650000
1992-03-01 -0.35093513302983220000
1992-04-01 -0.30896890630482810000
1992-05-01 -0.38538457641267410000
1992-06-01 -0.53658643691793950000
1992-07-01 -0.44592060606029826000
1992-08-01 -0.27359469762659205000
1992-09-01 -0.29697851836199590000
1992-10-01 -0.37747835928162330000
1992-11-01 -0.44235964746835116000
1992-12-01 -0.49814576745848005000
1993-01-01 -0.93992564882529510000
1993-02-01 -0.90306897625216810000
1993-03-01 -0.69234742243501580000
1993-04-01 -0.34578184474153406000
1993-05-01 -0.31671222884601674000
1993-06-01 -0.02127787864754177000
1993-07-01 0.16724426665591050000
1993-08-01 0.12830494974358433000
1993-09-01 0.11393926058386221000
1993-10-01 0.04731918608685774000
1993-11-01 0.04741580140265869000
1993-12-01 -0.00469531674376447600
1994-01-01 -0.37092497016090920000
1994-02-01 -0.59973838464984080000
1994-03-01 -0.73062199547021670000
1994-04-01 -0.87223034152360450000
1994-05-01 -1.00967367192140990000
1994-06-01 -1.03485265005376400000
1994-07-01 -1.11537249936101210000
1994-08-01 -1.14038659087518600000
1994-09-01 -1.01269807084129000000
1994-10-01 -0.96334636405349730000
1994-11-01 -1.05811037430788680000
1994-12-01 -1.06838117342909220000
1995-01-01 -1.04452350674306340000
1995-02-01 -0.85265415939155220000
1995-03-01 -0.54015514811898240000
1995-04-01 -0.33522993261421125000
1995-05-01 -0.02829639622067874000
1995-06-01 0.18952166466248493000
1995-07-01 0.25349513910003490000
1995-08-01 0.14875448202341013000
1995-09-01 0.07673273251188545000
1995-10-01 0.03309806123798568000
1995-11-01 0.19067259338282030000
1995-12-01 0.13824116546110585000
1996-01-01 0.10653685612128524000
1996-02-01 0.32596238889753370000
1996-03-01 0.25990867013381547000
1996-04-01 0.07997023739636432000
1996-05-01 0.04520045479678245000
1996-06-01 -0.05890836941540388000
1996-07-01 -0.14019969173137442000
1996-08-01 -0.12762674822686254000
1996-09-01 -0.27545549953089193000
1996-10-01 -0.24688152760013155000
1996-11-01 -0.22492873012808080000
1996-12-01 -0.27037604822098393000
1997-01-01 -0.13132543430522486000
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