Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP
Series ID BBKMCLE
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-07-01
Last Updated 2026-08-31 7:33 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The leading subcomponent of the cycle is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 0.5272932480
1960-02-01 1.2557397640
1960-03-01 1.6233227346
1960-04-01 1.8932425204
1960-05-01 1.3952407241
1960-06-01 1.2101240569
1960-07-01 1.0933428803
1960-08-01 0.9462045329
1960-09-01 0.6783859660
1960-10-01 0.6105775104
1960-11-01 0.6905814886
1960-12-01 0.5610992366
1961-01-01 0.7522911531
1961-02-01 0.4885359101
1961-03-01 0.2421493153
1961-04-01 -0.2003616731
1961-05-01 -0.2940942671
1961-06-01 -0.4151751488
1961-07-01 -0.7476573166
1961-08-01 -0.6209361874
1961-09-01 -0.3441177508
1961-10-01 0.1178584480
1961-11-01 0.2277216556
1961-12-01 0.2062033916
1962-01-01 0.3680302282
1962-02-01 0.3089037678
1962-03-01 0.4899945781
1962-04-01 0.7253487818
1962-05-01 0.7120845153
1962-06-01 0.5185545241
1962-07-01 0.4580418032
1962-08-01 0.4065869962
1962-09-01 0.2277916745
1962-10-01 0.1817534598
1962-11-01 0.2801042389
1962-12-01 0.1086518008
1963-01-01 -0.0805924480
1963-02-01 -0.0883326574
1963-03-01 0.0795921742
1963-04-01 0.1779835705
1963-05-01 0.2538611005
1963-06-01 0.3722961039
1963-07-01 0.5466623473
1963-08-01 0.4856367566
1963-09-01 0.5222827475
1963-10-01 0.4041034465
1963-11-01 0.3649962837
1963-12-01 0.5196657948
1964-01-01 0.5974602003
1964-02-01 0.8068009472
1964-03-01 0.6633550338
1964-04-01 0.6487283422
1964-05-01 0.5906291024
1964-06-01 0.4915664742
1964-07-01 0.3719365952
1964-08-01 0.2651117410
1964-09-01 0.0460379594
1964-10-01 -0.0889286407
1964-11-01 -0.2424075740
1964-12-01 0.0542422429
1965-01-01 0.1426171895
1965-02-01 0.5670621862
1965-03-01 0.6685502845
1965-04-01 0.7629803198
1965-05-01 1.0442202625
1965-06-01 1.0287110803
1965-07-01 1.3322573396
1965-08-01 1.6642057120
1965-09-01 1.6812950953
1965-10-01 1.4896184143
1965-11-01 0.9804551506
1965-12-01 0.5606874838
1966-01-01 0.1557147710
1966-02-01 -0.0853146557
1966-03-01 -0.0623602620
1966-04-01 -0.1223356870
1966-05-01 -0.1095286555
1966-06-01 0.0825502911
1966-07-01 0.1975467229
1966-08-01 0.1852829434
1966-09-01 0.4556842736
1966-10-01 0.8170190308
1966-11-01 1.3939384904
1966-12-01 1.5368319991
1967-01-01 1.8676920865
1967-02-01 1.6377366327
1967-03-01 1.6109914996
1967-04-01 1.6058396893
1967-05-01 1.3846864771
1967-06-01 1.1228969774
1967-07-01 0.9275572640
1967-08-01 0.6409878512
1967-09-01 0.5837849195
1967-10-01 0.3706879219
1967-11-01 0.3939463922
1967-12-01 0.6643889437
1968-01-01 1.0224920913
1968-02-01 1.3391047279
1968-03-01 1.3435685942
1968-04-01 1.1424715058
1968-05-01 1.0859188802
1968-06-01 0.9742709524
1968-07-01 0.8033231301
1968-08-01 0.7205291167
1968-09-01 0.3492419481
1968-10-01 0.0854362462
1968-11-01 0.1866163453
1968-12-01 0.2577705442
1969-01-01 0.4171594697
1969-02-01 0.2197372443
1969-03-01 -0.0731074060
1969-04-01 -0.0789478914
1969-05-01 -0.0620386637
1969-06-01 -0.2377376916
1969-07-01 -0.2836440903
1969-08-01 -0.0825832126
1969-09-01 -0.0978941594
1969-10-01 -0.0475128538
1969-11-01 0.1418500034
1969-12-01 0.2258955751
1970-01-01 0.2986465928
1970-02-01 0.4881471529
1970-03-01 0.5735661986
1970-04-01 0.6425385428
1970-05-01 0.6663121285
1970-06-01 0.8298255015
1970-07-01 1.0740399544
1970-08-01 1.1373717559
1970-09-01 0.9839422770
1970-10-01 0.8337773832
1970-11-01 0.7163434674
1970-12-01 0.7153513092
1971-01-01 0.8769047389
1971-02-01 0.7170543526
1971-03-01 0.6911243460
1971-04-01 0.5893698013
1971-05-01 0.3220915591
1971-06-01 0.1396338064
1971-07-01 0.1370204977
1971-08-01 0.0599634934
1971-09-01 -0.1275834609
1971-10-01 -0.1362269254
1971-11-01 0.0928034162
1971-12-01 0.4633708355
1972-01-01 0.6450494163
1972-02-01 0.5985685143
1972-03-01 0.7248069546
1972-04-01 0.5017176070
1972-05-01 0.3768599106
1972-06-01 0.3246763705
1972-07-01 0.2072425163
1972-08-01 0.0841390044
1972-09-01 -0.0273826595
1972-10-01 -0.0467579735
1972-11-01 -0.4226710570
1972-12-01 -0.4651214628
1973-01-01 -0.6161433710
1973-02-01 -0.8825762345
1973-03-01 -1.1163017639
1973-04-01 -1.3252127961
1973-05-01 -1.3241956253
1973-06-01 -1.4239107455
1973-07-01 -1.6124519885
1973-08-01 -2.1432380753
1973-09-01 -1.9622673231
1973-10-01 -2.2168255756
1973-11-01 -2.1840546436
1973-12-01 -2.3329988755
1974-01-01 -2.0659221218
1974-02-01 -1.6406295623
1974-03-01 -1.2529730860
1974-04-01 -0.9327188405
1974-05-01 -0.6926615471
1974-06-01 -0.6086557767
1974-07-01 -0.5699702159
1974-08-01 -0.4181905848
1974-09-01 -0.1948353108
1974-10-01 0.4016485111
1974-11-01 1.0342175845
1974-12-01 1.8627579641
1975-01-01 1.8932149431
1975-02-01 1.8836875595
1975-03-01 1.7972860393
1975-04-01 1.4185653360
1975-05-01 1.1492706734
1975-06-01 0.4174564505
1975-07-01 0.0236108580
1975-08-01 -0.0633750220
1975-09-01 -0.2351233749
1975-10-01 -0.1105543207
1975-11-01 -0.0587639340
1975-12-01 -0.0795087432
1976-01-01 0.1301555573
1976-02-01 0.0769627898
1976-03-01 -0.0144947706
1976-04-01 -0.0300131592
1976-05-01 -0.1637492948
1976-06-01 -0.1555193401
1976-07-01 -0.0664494188
1976-08-01 -0.0007435514
1976-09-01 0.1315433561
1976-10-01 0.0142076581
1976-11-01 0.0177478396
1976-12-01 -0.1671572894
1977-01-01 -0.4723355340
1977-02-01 -0.3826968816
1977-03-01 -0.3321008606
1977-04-01 -0.0621838766
1977-05-01 0.1379289265
1977-06-01 0.2122026903
1977-07-01 0.3082751325
1977-08-01 0.2111518467
1977-09-01 0.2039075065
1977-10-01 0.0999884611
1977-11-01 -0.0223475005
1977-12-01 0.0207806524
1978-01-01 0.2005513706
1978-02-01 0.5642162852
1978-03-01 0.8877248870
1978-04-01 0.7828377220
1978-05-01 0.4100599019
1978-06-01 0.1883799127
1978-07-01 -0.1566772392
1978-08-01 -0.3705132908
1978-09-01 -0.4679149675
1978-10-01 -0.6392275923
1978-11-01 -0.8606604860
1978-12-01 -1.0651987819
1979-01-01 -1.3981014028
1979-02-01 -1.3952039503
1979-03-01 -1.4864020082
1979-04-01 -1.6701871699
1979-05-01 -1.4842564015
1979-06-01 -1.2311540055
1979-07-01 -1.0216330411
1979-08-01 -0.7616051369
1979-09-01 -0.9646789466
1979-10-01 -1.3786846200
1979-11-01 -1.4947668146
1979-12-01 -1.6172876546
1980-01-01 -1.6421778779
1980-02-01 -1.5948622738
1980-03-01 -1.3289356468
1980-04-01 -0.8537658405
1980-05-01 -0.1248715953
1980-06-01 0.5173361190
1980-07-01 0.6114588896
1980-08-01 0.0653059674
1980-09-01 -0.4126938429
1980-10-01 -0.5787366249
1980-11-01 -0.5511886816
1980-12-01 -0.4235456336
1981-01-01 -0.2508011327
1981-02-01 -0.4203481775
1981-03-01 -0.4315296883
1981-04-01 -0.6135577051
1981-05-01 -0.6831251204
1981-06-01 -0.6475154569
1981-07-01 -0.4443341671
1981-08-01 -0.2364542863
1981-09-01 -0.2083122530
1981-10-01 0.2306007696
1981-11-01 0.5678932457
1981-12-01 0.6137120551
1982-01-01 0.5751203719
1982-02-01 0.5497913307
1982-03-01 0.5161776557
1982-04-01 0.4418992027
1982-05-01 0.3537135746
1982-06-01 0.2886219425
1982-07-01 0.8087217510
1982-08-01 1.1039531709
1982-09-01 1.3846775222
1982-10-01 1.4826882724
1982-11-01 1.4193988755
1982-12-01 1.0810116252
1983-01-01 0.6307272992
1983-02-01 0.2692298994
1983-03-01 0.3306267198
1983-04-01 0.1779697793
1983-05-01 0.0768522603
1983-06-01 -0.0913545223
1983-07-01 -0.1570964093
1983-08-01 -0.2817612904
1983-09-01 -0.1871467092
1983-10-01 -0.2185467533
1983-11-01 -0.2494308499
1983-12-01 -0.0631128026
1984-01-01 0.1065426164
1984-02-01 0.1720333743
1984-03-01 0.3693022311
1984-04-01 0.6848110800
1984-05-01 0.6146995906
1984-06-01 0.5416241514
1984-07-01 0.3623217352
1984-08-01 0.4283023596
1984-09-01 0.6374071365
1984-10-01 0.4790673004
1984-11-01 0.7504266551
1984-12-01 0.7274712382
1985-01-01 0.7564512312
1985-02-01 0.7214724331
1985-03-01 0.5474795018
1985-04-01 0.6695757190
1985-05-01 0.8702765742
1985-06-01 1.0418679003
1985-07-01 0.8807724378
1985-08-01 0.7507267259
1985-09-01 0.6337769120
1985-10-01 0.2072742902
1985-11-01 0.2076092618
1985-12-01 0.4916802116
1986-01-01 0.3251117589
1986-02-01 0.5186854731
1986-03-01 0.7183257242
1986-04-01 0.4343643749
1986-05-01 0.1614743948
1986-06-01 -0.0972685206
1986-07-01 -0.1772767843
1986-08-01 -0.2967168825
1986-09-01 -0.3245154559
1986-10-01 -0.4851457563
1986-11-01 -0.5182699958
1986-12-01 -0.6962696555
1987-01-01 -1.1160722581
1987-02-01 -0.8765722815
1987-03-01 -0.8912039881
1987-04-01 -0.8886413311
1987-05-01 -0.8237522247
1987-06-01 -0.9378567418
1987-07-01 -0.8236134269
1987-08-01 -0.6541332665
1987-09-01 -0.8698682942
1987-10-01 -0.7222187686
1987-11-01 -0.5945759003
1987-12-01 -0.5265857051
1988-01-01 -0.3539982667
1988-02-01 -0.2365583476
1988-03-01 -0.3215559636
1988-04-01 -0.3666100193
1988-05-01 -0.3380303834
1988-06-01 -0.3882235906
1988-07-01 -0.3331278273
1988-08-01 -0.2601238740
1988-09-01 -0.2899787179
1988-10-01 -0.0309881872
1988-11-01 -0.1656231852
1988-12-01 -0.1835872259
1989-01-01 -0.2102989479
1989-02-01 -0.3172724395
1989-03-01 -0.3419478829
1989-04-01 -0.1998009851
1989-05-01 0.0157040298
1989-06-01 0.4316692337
1989-07-01 0.5897967028
1989-08-01 0.4408334112
1989-09-01 0.2910754062
1989-10-01 -0.0222168336
1989-11-01 -0.2708711790
1989-12-01 -0.3555950468
1990-01-01 -0.5433231729
1990-02-01 -0.9924522722
1990-03-01 -0.9276883144
1990-04-01 -0.9938846643
1990-05-01 -1.0422316152
1990-06-01 -1.2494153060
1990-07-01 -1.4878154961
1990-08-01 -1.7632273742
1990-09-01 -1.6607674965
1990-10-01 -1.4628272757
1990-11-01 -0.9302673792
1990-12-01 -0.6324964583
1991-01-01 -0.2941898883
1991-02-01 0.3157173407
1991-03-01 0.3866311065
1991-04-01 -0.0737753010
1991-05-01 -0.4272477329
1991-06-01 -0.6748187820
1991-07-01 -0.9105926812
1991-08-01 -1.0375576050
1991-09-01 -0.9509281486
1991-10-01 -0.7788699786
1991-11-01 -0.4456162569
1991-12-01 -0.1076134932
1992-01-01 0.0757505011
1992-02-01 -0.1763291574
1992-03-01 -0.3347900043
1992-04-01 -0.2966425169
1992-05-01 -0.3765672431
1992-06-01 -0.5308262394
1992-07-01 -0.4383797926
1992-08-01 -0.2578808706
1992-09-01 -0.2803660800
1992-10-01 -0.3647784231
1992-11-01 -0.4345891005
1992-12-01 -0.4892751448
1993-01-01 -0.9651400884
1993-02-01 -0.9208052036
1993-03-01 -0.6934509042
1993-04-01 -0.3385721190
1993-05-01 -0.3138810037
1993-06-01 -0.0004816933
1993-07-01 0.1920583413
1993-08-01 0.1488180722
1993-09-01 0.1372092897
1993-10-01 0.0689687877
1993-11-01 0.0733290942
1993-12-01 0.0245304417
1994-01-01 -0.3582498028
1994-02-01 -0.5942253146
1994-03-01 -0.7265290677
1994-04-01 -0.8721053895
1994-05-01 -1.0146538496
1994-06-01 -1.0386949709
1994-07-01 -1.1226242306
1994-08-01 -1.1484696951
1994-09-01 -1.0141661463
1994-10-01 -0.9635512239
1994-11-01 -1.0663722771
1994-12-01 -1.0809337021
1995-01-01 -1.0618029920
1995-02-01 -0.8668721060
1995-03-01 -0.5433695290
1995-04-01 -0.3347864264
1995-05-01 -0.0162014556
1995-06-01 0.2074923247
1995-07-01 0.2692096735
1995-08-01 0.1542332366
1995-09-01 0.0760066280
1995-10-01 0.0291026802
1995-11-01 0.1973826152
1995-12-01 0.1418147044
1996-01-01 0.1081355005
1996-02-01 0.3440312378
1996-03-01 0.2764180976
1996-04-01 0.0877634031
1996-05-01 0.0561846441
1996-06-01 -0.0522304633
1996-07-01 -0.1366989036
1996-08-01 -0.1223806551
1996-09-01 -0.2783363905
1996-10-01 -0.2470682258
1996-11-01 -0.2240643558
1996-12-01 -0.2737822995
1997-01-01 -0.1275671177
1997-02-01 -0.0070048974
1997-03-01 0.1456390422
1997-04-01 0.2759624801
1997-05-01 0.4397571271
1997-06-01 0.4043867262
1997-07-01 0.5514479116
1997-08-01 0.4900717176
1997-09-01 0.3862634176
1997-10-01 0.4132135424
1997-11-01 0.3674389422
1997-12-01 0.5893121671
1998-01-01 0.8197987309
1998-02-01 0.9682692011
1998-03-01 1.0443466862
1998-04-01 1.1316430049
1998-05-01 1.1045236167
1998-06-01 1.1074334200
1998-07-01 0.9574060686
1998-08-01 0.8846214537
1998-09-01 0.8701812892
1998-10-01 0.9032534530
1998-11-01 0.7984693288
1998-12-01 0.6285793100
1999-01-01 0.3976658753
1999-02-01 0.2430584755
1999-03-01 0.1771941557
1999-04-01 -0.0006501174
1999-05-01 0.0979434323
1999-06-01 0.1670674399
1999-07-01 0.0655145224
1999-08-01 -0.0931696721
1999-09-01 -0.0554607877
1999-10-01 0.0171990618
1999-11-01 0.0623928273
1999-12-01 0.1027900360
2000-01-01 -0.0345169234
2000-02-01 -0.0241488040
2000-03-01 -0.1699007387
2000-04-01 -0.0318093359
2000-05-01 -0.0238859243
2000-06-01 -0.0008186530
2000-07-01 0.0474552017
2000-08-01 0.2476063308
2000-09-01 0.2469821314
2000-10-01 0.3058888662
2000-11-01 0.3706214581
2000-12-01 0.2635829118
2001-01-01 0.3313332871
2001-02-01 0.6483317741
2001-03-01 0.9137387915
2001-04-01 0.9752412327
2001-05-01 1.0089057859
2001-06-01 1.0367171915
2001-07-01 0.9144648815
2001-08-01 0.8946010912
2001-09-01 0.7689747833
2001-10-01 1.3136974596
2001-11-01 1.3973290564
2001-12-01 1.2914912170
2002-01-01 1.0382661494
2002-02-01 0.7044296924
2002-03-01 0.1203604270
2002-04-01 -0.2669944764
2002-05-01 -0.2692122712
2002-06-01 -0.1910034864
2002-07-01 -0.1440392123
2002-08-01 -0.0667595597
2002-09-01 0.0437187432
2002-10-01 0.0667101804
2002-11-01 0.2057332100
2002-12-01 0.1363037922
2003-01-01 -0.0953764197
2003-02-01 -0.0739476265
2003-03-01 0.2652280356
2003-04-01 0.8264547287
2003-05-01 0.9355747261
2003-06-01 0.8426492745
2003-07-01 0.6176619555
2003-08-01 0.3375400018
2003-09-01 -0.0626861179
2003-10-01 -0.0905250131
2003-11-01 -0.3677248956
2003-12-01 -0.7057659147
2004-01-01 -0.9172701927
2004-02-01 -1.0256402677
2004-03-01 -0.9635835831
2004-04-01 -1.0137988321
2004-05-01 -1.0018215968
2004-06-01 -1.0948683786
2004-07-01 -0.7864872923
2004-08-01 -0.8026079093
2004-09-01 -0.7378914708
2004-10-01 -0.7172581344
2004-11-01 -0.7879552425
2004-12-01 -0.6832010337
2005-01-01 -0.8340863054
2005-02-01 -0.7598259285
2005-03-01 -0.7778516430
2005-04-01 -0.6390397785
2005-05-01 -0.4366321290
2005-06-01 -0.3169695626
2005-07-01 -0.6592278500
2005-08-01 -1.1391614259
2005-09-01 -1.3393773795
2005-10-01 -0.8518556524
2005-11-01 -0.4642311429
2005-12-01 -0.2565728240
2006-01-01 -0.2094040534
2006-02-01 -0.4354775444
2006-03-01 -0.6514003646
2006-04-01 -0.9316218564
2006-05-01 -1.1600857226
2006-06-01 -1.0030919978
2006-07-01 -0.9220510839
2006-08-01 -0.5832207884
2006-09-01 0.0808494915
2006-10-01 0.3629519963
2006-11-01 0.2283862444
2006-12-01 -0.0251085630
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2008-11-01 2.1229956418
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2009-01-01 1.6794596007
2009-02-01 1.4609007157
2009-03-01 1.2907621064
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2014-11-01 0.6265412485
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2023-01-01 1.3241010485
2023-02-01 1.4609274130
2023-03-01 1.5148661805
2023-04-01 1.5207708308
2023-05-01 1.5014752933
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2023-08-01 0.9009979752
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2023-11-01 1.1822370618
2023-12-01 1.2933398953
2024-01-01 1.2667384007
2024-02-01 1.2282930097
2024-03-01 1.0389016695
2024-04-01 1.0344008102
2024-05-01 1.1131649271
2024-06-01 1.1408268304
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2026-04-01 -1.0747076052
2026-05-01 -0.9375982641
2026-06-01 -0.5687634753
2026-07-01 -0.4945634082

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