Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP
Series ID BBKMCLE
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-06-01
Last Updated 2026-08-03 7:32 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The leading subcomponent of the cycle is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 0.52978905565468730000
1960-02-01 1.24841459999317280000
1960-03-01 1.61120728316401380000
1960-04-01 1.87558876804002400000
1960-05-01 1.38572370308355140000
1960-06-01 1.20216948610096020000
1960-07-01 1.08569319522156540000
1960-08-01 0.93919660121060500000
1960-09-01 0.67391649773096530000
1960-10-01 0.60555188635698880000
1960-11-01 0.68346183363721410000
1960-12-01 0.55512096376459350000
1961-01-01 0.74088078618716770000
1961-02-01 0.47967658110912530000
1961-03-01 0.23563938119209865000
1961-04-01 -0.20024572275800030000
1961-05-01 -0.29353344717071617000
1961-06-01 -0.41318019095468983000
1961-07-01 -0.73958698257651740000
1961-08-01 -0.61404507639733300000
1961-09-01 -0.33984948081911100000
1961-10-01 0.11613795234180664000
1961-11-01 0.22617980996214620000
1961-12-01 0.20702864734910280000
1962-01-01 0.36764893916993047000
1962-02-01 0.30955104322426360000
1962-03-01 0.48795016270654074000
1962-04-01 0.71944756837683210000
1962-05-01 0.70615784984867360000
1962-06-01 0.51549217751748420000
1962-07-01 0.45464152409555986000
1962-08-01 0.40296263820282890000
1962-09-01 0.22654973451380891000
1962-10-01 0.18129251988964298000
1962-11-01 0.27751976090731506000
1962-12-01 0.10885349556095339000
1963-01-01 -0.07772475798255325000
1963-02-01 -0.08562013560777405000
1963-03-01 0.07942166296724577000
1963-04-01 0.17644899979278944000
1963-05-01 0.25206931429649354000
1963-06-01 0.36928874675319523000
1963-07-01 0.54111733563911270000
1963-08-01 0.48201768873101300000
1963-09-01 0.51864363379368830000
1963-10-01 0.40293317728736600000
1963-11-01 0.36509114147408620000
1963-12-01 0.51767512248862340000
1964-01-01 0.59445777845448950000
1964-02-01 0.80070795138009910000
1964-03-01 0.66063382482114900000
1964-04-01 0.64657158652528170000
1964-05-01 0.58926987106227670000
1964-06-01 0.49147846856485520000
1964-07-01 0.37301381663455160000
1964-08-01 0.26759890768833380000
1964-09-01 0.05144898113689875000
1964-10-01 -0.08190613202835247000
1964-11-01 -0.23344545474441372000
1964-12-01 0.05883492754928367600
1965-01-01 0.14736771091806689000
1965-02-01 0.56674505922279570000
1965-03-01 0.66845576400543750000
1965-04-01 0.76339544647650100000
1965-05-01 1.04168488082583720000
1965-06-01 1.02780360643278710000
1965-07-01 1.32673067950690030000
1965-08-01 1.65363583591998360000
1965-09-01 1.66979524127332430000
1965-10-01 1.47970524393680040000
1965-11-01 0.97704057245526840000
1965-12-01 0.56225956689941010000
1966-01-01 0.16253784854394882000
1966-02-01 -0.07554583160656057000
1966-03-01 -0.05319347993076803000
1966-04-01 -0.11093953626853136000
1966-05-01 -0.09733535069963974000
1966-06-01 0.09188074561684080000
1966-07-01 0.20541346088271320000
1966-08-01 0.19445960929919470000
1966-09-01 0.46226628006149810000
1966-10-01 0.81980462132515630000
1966-11-01 1.38893660656459800000
1966-12-01 1.53046491337784380000
1967-01-01 1.85575091267621480000
1967-02-01 1.62943973028677900000
1967-03-01 1.60174589727832500000
1967-04-01 1.59516313355128010000
1967-05-01 1.37629567009562660000
1967-06-01 1.11726426435787800000
1967-07-01 0.92469474858198250000
1967-08-01 0.64174588970848630000
1967-09-01 0.58425215322253600000
1967-10-01 0.37458087414083213000
1967-11-01 0.39756789598216175000
1967-12-01 0.66472936695912300000
1968-01-01 1.01828179000258000000
1968-02-01 1.32934885328344170000
1968-03-01 1.33390969743117420000
1968-04-01 1.13674397155818800000
1968-05-01 1.08032998119349480000
1968-06-01 0.96915022241352290000
1968-07-01 0.79960958179309240000
1968-08-01 0.71685966812659620000
1968-09-01 0.35001986468755225000
1968-10-01 0.08936501574125179000
1968-11-01 0.18800777821891007000
1968-12-01 0.25771581083085443000
1969-01-01 0.41406490582132677000
1969-02-01 0.22025148738312930000
1969-03-01 -0.06785529704155330000
1969-04-01 -0.07414833329096877000
1969-05-01 -0.05804364496939278000
1969-06-01 -0.23107676540266460000
1969-07-01 -0.27649558531339120000
1969-08-01 -0.07892226519988250000
1969-09-01 -0.09387084961853130000
1969-10-01 -0.04400417824426979000
1969-11-01 0.14274230819798736000
1969-12-01 0.22582171565472073000
1970-01-01 0.29786539213809990000
1970-02-01 0.48447746871140257000
1970-03-01 0.56890213890626230000
1970-04-01 0.63684707437996060000
1970-05-01 0.66050178605471280000
1970-06-01 0.82215153340872120000
1970-07-01 1.06269758715923430000
1970-08-01 1.12518074518894750000
1970-09-01 0.97373492621601380000
1970-10-01 0.82534653874189220000
1970-11-01 0.70932733104517030000
1970-12-01 0.70724543772045290000
1971-01-01 0.86620998518328110000
1971-02-01 0.70928785120034750000
1971-03-01 0.68347862629242380000
1971-04-01 0.58264403124834520000
1971-05-01 0.31941633968847780000
1971-06-01 0.13920318380323646000
1971-07-01 0.13623226078086728000
1971-08-01 0.05981973618676804000
1971-09-01 -0.12518160757574540000
1971-10-01 -0.13349636904799073000
1971-11-01 0.09283812960532649000
1971-12-01 0.45917141535472410000
1972-01-01 0.63919320032705410000
1972-02-01 0.59413628360625580000
1972-03-01 0.71793589752490590000
1972-04-01 0.49864953198137524000
1972-05-01 0.37530706708317900000
1972-06-01 0.32280179733214776000
1972-07-01 0.20660083221808756000
1972-08-01 0.08467452603493901000
1972-09-01 -0.02594246688535960200
1972-10-01 -0.04637075209085314000
1972-11-01 -0.41750855337840020000
1972-12-01 -0.46125939800988697000
1973-01-01 -0.61152689894865360000
1973-02-01 -0.87585869139589460000
1973-03-01 -1.10738607919069640000
1973-04-01 -1.31416385547381150000
1973-05-01 -1.31524148549108540000
1973-06-01 -1.41508761087023260000
1973-07-01 -1.60221897086899820000
1973-08-01 -2.12570035713469600000
1973-09-01 -1.94920755885308840000
1973-10-01 -2.20021991894305340000
1973-11-01 -2.16805984999425760000
1973-12-01 -2.31357370093142340000
1974-01-01 -2.05007023017400240000
1974-02-01 -1.62960429707775930000
1974-03-01 -1.24537658580034900000
1974-04-01 -0.92751359833532190000
1974-05-01 -0.68852320085634730000
1974-06-01 -0.60332790844418270000
1974-07-01 -0.56369858797155110000
1974-08-01 -0.41208260864689233000
1974-09-01 -0.18897362527635916000
1974-10-01 0.40097387304172716000
1974-11-01 1.02517634359706420000
1974-12-01 1.84099660198697460000
1975-01-01 1.86946189416261550000
1975-02-01 1.85897970540242020000
1975-03-01 1.77221777536524900000
1975-04-01 1.39654125049056770000
1975-05-01 1.12871016866823750000
1975-06-01 0.40735343747243170000
1975-07-01 0.01860398702883778500
1975-08-01 -0.06785370452834827000
1975-09-01 -0.23738082542067193000
1975-10-01 -0.11502690279377066000
1975-11-01 -0.06407949153729109000
1975-12-01 -0.08360827238666294000
1976-01-01 0.12397649197307420000
1976-02-01 0.07358827651245868000
1976-03-01 -0.01496392922719300800
1976-04-01 -0.02933262059686599800
1976-05-01 -0.16011870263260894000
1976-06-01 -0.15203500793145494000
1976-07-01 -0.06426160842791322000
1976-08-01 0.00010044262297065982
1976-09-01 0.12957721683729356000
1976-10-01 0.01356244293520702600
1976-11-01 0.01598634719992577200
1976-12-01 -0.16692906782103892000
1977-01-01 -0.46680004318933190000
1977-02-01 -0.37953447068093920000
1977-03-01 -0.32867104768240063000
1977-04-01 -0.06153191926304674000
1977-05-01 0.13676244084996486000
1977-06-01 0.21144620828048966000
1977-07-01 0.30702602675916910000
1977-08-01 0.21241702538098917000
1977-09-01 0.20572118176566875000
1977-10-01 0.10345784915966780000
1977-11-01 -0.01606850990292988200
1977-12-01 0.02768235070248417600
1978-01-01 0.20580987257862265000
1978-02-01 0.56254066357940310000
1978-03-01 0.88021073157947880000
1978-04-01 0.77606302182383290000
1978-05-01 0.40819032851785586000
1978-06-01 0.18799887074374536000
1978-07-01 -0.15315275185931734000
1978-08-01 -0.36561027811636165000
1978-09-01 -0.46339995655758520000
1978-10-01 -0.63403015668275540000
1978-11-01 -0.85379703237927240000
1978-12-01 -1.05666026662123950000
1979-01-01 -1.38508512398565080000
1979-02-01 -1.38468689929312650000
1979-03-01 -1.47632901733425100000
1979-04-01 -1.65732162427344900000
1979-05-01 -1.47558799858594040000
1979-06-01 -1.22671269947107350000
1979-07-01 -1.02072623738138120000
1979-08-01 -0.76598168979168830000
1979-09-01 -0.96618366453127560000
1979-10-01 -1.37329827853593840000
1979-11-01 -1.48779736971993070000
1979-12-01 -1.60820825715902750000
1980-01-01 -1.63172965047817400000
1980-02-01 -1.58281001177712070000
1980-03-01 -1.31883618984064270000
1980-04-01 -0.84941096590423750000
1980-05-01 -0.13136475599413608000
1980-06-01 0.50086028535340500000
1980-07-01 0.59362842874839880000
1980-08-01 0.05627187303160044500
1980-09-01 -0.41445174286725600000
1980-10-01 -0.57810820502534490000
1980-11-01 -0.55081576421474040000
1980-12-01 -0.42484459432732447000
1981-01-01 -0.25458358401658987000
1981-02-01 -0.42047899615817746000
1981-03-01 -0.43115260362573310000
1981-04-01 -0.60979880409829490000
1981-05-01 -0.67715107792920230000
1981-06-01 -0.64107586702676340000
1981-07-01 -0.44030428345211090000
1981-08-01 -0.23446036925505060000
1981-09-01 -0.20520100877806050000
1981-10-01 0.22781252493791027000
1981-11-01 0.56037603856498290000
1981-12-01 0.60584836661441020000
1982-01-01 0.56768862673148650000
1982-02-01 0.54062687022999690000
1982-03-01 0.50842620792476680000
1982-04-01 0.43569274115488194000
1982-05-01 0.34859362821470696000
1982-06-01 0.28551849371734833000
1982-07-01 0.79731265524751080000
1982-08-01 1.08853391625519600000
1982-09-01 1.36491207969398000000
1982-10-01 1.46129772509346470000
1982-11-01 1.39812091359796150000
1982-12-01 1.06467782633401260000
1983-01-01 0.62066646629819520000
1983-02-01 0.26500541307615950000
1983-03-01 0.32397182988238377000
1983-04-01 0.17306272623521957000
1983-05-01 0.07267253832940498000
1983-06-01 -0.09256368692538276000
1983-07-01 -0.15605607687306244000
1983-08-01 -0.27765010331801800000
1983-09-01 -0.18421885904003180000
1983-10-01 -0.21430118048116642000
1983-11-01 -0.24322642973764272000
1983-12-01 -0.05847583931028907000
1984-01-01 0.10993057422520994000
1984-02-01 0.17635158486898803000
1984-03-01 0.37223444739255630000
1984-04-01 0.68309139829085950000
1984-05-01 0.61465300976816300000
1984-06-01 0.54282187511209350000
1984-07-01 0.36741329165519830000
1984-08-01 0.43223644342094480000
1984-09-01 0.63683280840130040000
1984-10-01 0.48071108666634205000
1984-11-01 0.74672794190330250000
1984-12-01 0.72368089912327880000
1985-01-01 0.75200877771723840000
1985-02-01 0.71709727827435930000
1985-03-01 0.54544687785957970000
1985-04-01 0.66570635552110970000
1985-05-01 0.86303838843067450000
1985-06-01 1.03204144731783830000
1985-07-01 0.87277302047386460000
1985-08-01 0.74370270865935650000
1985-09-01 0.62800434929380080000
1985-10-01 0.20839315796570176000
1985-11-01 0.20793641158323595000
1985-12-01 0.48673999892133290000
1986-01-01 0.32265599247072600000
1986-02-01 0.51304976227948440000
1986-03-01 0.70866439411293820000
1986-04-01 0.42785519178553640000
1986-05-01 0.15787207890158278000
1986-06-01 -0.09797863769218679000
1986-07-01 -0.17821437384688570000
1986-08-01 -0.29747144789667374000
1986-09-01 -0.32656901434200380000
1986-10-01 -0.48504126208321807000
1986-11-01 -0.51887369645923820000
1986-12-01 -0.69473831402107590000
1987-01-01 -1.10677044521636100000
1987-02-01 -0.87257335370851960000
1987-03-01 -0.88615763838139740000
1987-04-01 -0.88316835832513310000
1987-05-01 -0.81881887216081360000
1987-06-01 -0.93049840358533900000
1987-07-01 -0.81801361745495590000
1987-08-01 -0.65090159690568780000
1987-09-01 -0.86167972460500200000
1987-10-01 -0.71539047756318370000
1987-11-01 -0.58901345556081560000
1987-12-01 -0.52091352365982480000
1988-01-01 -0.35075216087174665000
1988-02-01 -0.23566217615375830000
1988-03-01 -0.31919504697878350000
1988-04-01 -0.36322842956522730000
1988-05-01 -0.33502701861066037000
1988-06-01 -0.38409913418963265000
1988-07-01 -0.32988433006324820000
1988-08-01 -0.25778072579947187000
1988-09-01 -0.28753777503202050000
1988-10-01 -0.03322045185961887000
1988-11-01 -0.16510170219689035000
1988-12-01 -0.18229061623490900000
1989-01-01 -0.20761224689738836000
1989-02-01 -0.31193799511756815000
1989-03-01 -0.33647077628909167000
1989-04-01 -0.19723869633909719000
1989-05-01 0.01581706661407466000
1989-06-01 0.42529037661333840000
1989-07-01 0.58064775971926790000
1989-08-01 0.43333171230029740000
1989-09-01 0.28555983413755615000
1989-10-01 -0.02412384663210863000
1989-11-01 -0.27070687413131983000
1989-12-01 -0.35633950093127240000
1990-01-01 -0.54367526738063600000
1990-02-01 -0.98638129199909430000
1990-03-01 -0.92333955158593550000
1990-04-01 -0.98924371491258540000
1990-05-01 -1.03879637330701420000
1990-06-01 -1.24481336902140360000
1990-07-01 -1.48066024295043300000
1990-08-01 -1.75266336222166270000
1990-09-01 -1.65116083117638010000
1990-10-01 -1.45487996672634060000
1990-11-01 -0.92882302815571960000
1990-12-01 -0.63325388643045520000
1991-01-01 -0.29817304314497584000
1991-02-01 0.30180781975769590000
1991-03-01 0.37172548094059720000
1991-04-01 -0.08150929681666831000
1991-05-01 -0.43002944648498620000
1991-06-01 -0.67416125411862580000
1991-07-01 -0.90676090180303630000
1991-08-01 -1.03178949981434220000
1991-09-01 -0.94669583214828050000
1991-10-01 -0.77727959331913630000
1991-11-01 -0.44883642208393030000
1991-12-01 -0.11564125069897563000
1992-01-01 0.06513996583587103000
1992-02-01 -0.18129578785519834000
1992-03-01 -0.33592092600508470000
1992-04-01 -0.29818431431213280000
1992-05-01 -0.37682859298665156000
1992-06-01 -0.52862458643757800000
1992-07-01 -0.43834694527625134000
1992-08-01 -0.26101020988801990000
1992-09-01 -0.28303566518442360000
1992-10-01 -0.36580440408826126000
1992-11-01 -0.43397346068581316000
1992-12-01 -0.48819889563759045000
1993-01-01 -0.95622712348679080000
1993-02-01 -0.91243044285912930000
1993-03-01 -0.68851028821205570000
1993-04-01 -0.34028039089484907000
1993-05-01 -0.31519833555872445000
1993-06-01 -0.00578097319520322300
1993-07-01 0.18438987473972007000
1993-08-01 0.14297043973806028000
1993-09-01 0.13167604027691007000
1993-10-01 0.06473891663378757000
1993-11-01 0.06834311804011724000
1993-12-01 0.01977308192112641600
1994-01-01 -0.35748131657621760000
1994-02-01 -0.59135007515021210000
1994-03-01 -0.72366841979979620000
1994-04-01 -0.86708121430297610000
1994-05-01 -1.00727499181577060000
1994-06-01 -1.03127436508092770000
1994-07-01 -1.11435001702253470000
1994-08-01 -1.14018366998549010000
1994-09-01 -1.00733680626728760000
1994-10-01 -0.95701611363516430000
1994-11-01 -1.05740230124818970000
1994-12-01 -1.07127569235447930000
1995-01-01 -1.05071784966511600000
1995-02-01 -0.85757414389026250000
1995-03-01 -0.53819443651893460000
1995-04-01 -0.33200393364701775000
1995-05-01 -0.01788187940192907000
1995-06-01 0.20315957453488548000
1995-07-01 0.26481330566111677000
1995-08-01 0.15195877107367958000
1995-09-01 0.07514553999742345000
1995-10-01 0.02958652076657061800
1995-11-01 0.19446073526602900000
1995-12-01 0.13897744168186335000
1996-01-01 0.10603068238117179000
1996-02-01 0.33657758005086620000
1996-03-01 0.26937547653765520000
1996-04-01 0.08403296072067631000
1996-05-01 0.05271022735736202000
1996-06-01 -0.05406965440894571000
1996-07-01 -0.13724606693779990000
1996-08-01 -0.12339120367766533000
1996-09-01 -0.27701684084513060000
1996-10-01 -0.24535405428413934000
1996-11-01 -0.22234159016273683000
1996-12-01 -0.27021785014647975000
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