Federal Reserve Economic Data

Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP
Series ID BBKMCLE
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2025-09-01
Last Updated 2026-01-05 7:33 AM CST
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The leading subcomponent of the cycle is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 0.52977971295242990000
1960-02-01 1.16119754287397670000
1960-03-01 1.48793911718589100000
1960-04-01 1.71859031600784200000
1960-05-01 1.30318367486815470000
1960-06-01 1.13808322535800290000
1960-07-01 1.02665694096024460000
1960-08-01 0.89109049496645070000
1960-09-01 0.65168581731314120000
1960-10-01 0.58018456312334090000
1960-11-01 0.63555145930712030000
1960-12-01 0.51459941815276060000
1961-01-01 0.65257139677937690000
1961-02-01 0.41292632874700114000
1961-03-01 0.18711813282377474000
1961-04-01 -0.20080472702866614000
1961-05-01 -0.29713562588036374000
1961-06-01 -0.40971993954480800000
1961-07-01 -0.68539822586155760000
1961-08-01 -0.56830133852944610000
1961-09-01 -0.32386792212137190000
1961-10-01 0.07684972852969427000
1961-11-01 0.18419116378305295000
1961-12-01 0.18295115251989563000
1962-01-01 0.32938787503572620000
1962-02-01 0.29203147807001560000
1962-03-01 0.44847146072285554000
1962-04-01 0.64815755689634760000
1962-05-01 0.63848765227789750000
1962-06-01 0.47487582883875290000
1962-07-01 0.41707964197108555000
1962-08-01 0.36433777645519244000
1962-09-01 0.20475503944781778000
1962-10-01 0.15770875227907058000
1962-11-01 0.23156042415250377000
1962-12-01 0.08220884091454560000
1963-01-01 -0.07852777989039200000
1963-02-01 -0.08773583303289241000
1963-03-01 0.05259597526784803000
1963-04-01 0.14140577852462330000
1963-05-01 0.21230862176133170000
1963-06-01 0.31876534724721580000
1963-07-01 0.47481606459458530000
1963-08-01 0.43196812424460230000
1963-09-01 0.46833668216419660000
1963-10-01 0.37540152600437643000
1963-11-01 0.34761422221692684000
1963-12-01 0.48187783372156310000
1964-01-01 0.55237058454245310000
1964-02-01 0.72766811977334400000
1964-03-01 0.60955345108971360000
1964-04-01 0.59385629573873510000
1964-05-01 0.53702719181012240000
1964-06-01 0.44564656726874746000
1964-07-01 0.34219714005737500000
1964-08-01 0.24687548562278738000
1964-09-01 0.05920369318722920000
1964-10-01 -0.06050629595732263000
1964-11-01 -0.18252822965315930000
1964-12-01 0.07247616737304294000
1965-01-01 0.16362467117450094000
1965-02-01 0.53588773728419930000
1965-03-01 0.64362262267401200000
1965-04-01 0.74289562976092790000
1965-05-01 0.99600552163177110000
1965-06-01 1.00223887824194870000
1965-07-01 1.27115426154773540000
1965-08-01 1.55391942510540050000
1965-09-01 1.56478344739319100000
1965-10-01 1.39166576084217100000
1965-11-01 0.94841433894619600000
1965-12-01 0.57501410304263490000
1966-01-01 0.21867655394027663000
1966-02-01 0.00428151303808319100
1966-03-01 0.01648093172020262700
1966-04-01 -0.03469404095828543000
1966-05-01 -0.01853876115884013000
1966-06-01 0.15098415448723470000
1966-07-01 0.26111685549619457000
1966-08-01 0.27114901070044590000
1966-09-01 0.52109339977545900000
1966-10-01 0.84887534629935460000
1966-11-01 1.34947841770198450000
1966-12-01 1.48436999619675380000
1967-01-01 1.76363273888929520000
1967-02-01 1.57106706423401740000
1967-03-01 1.54096062175888780000
1967-04-01 1.52400178936837020000
1967-05-01 1.32305228840570000000
1967-06-01 1.08600241691967160000
1967-07-01 0.90440687348680340000
1967-08-01 0.65140562503367440000
1967-09-01 0.58904167715502240000
1967-10-01 0.40738249121265810000
1967-11-01 0.43090038865848520000
1967-12-01 0.66472195760382670000
1968-01-01 0.97282964644427920000
1968-02-01 1.24609399205072610000
1968-03-01 1.25689133270737650000
1968-04-01 1.09166651717807730000
1968-05-01 1.03817715485361120000
1968-06-01 0.93244149657900080000
1968-07-01 0.77230518340526810000
1968-08-01 0.68060871086624600000
1968-09-01 0.35545122543465707000
1968-10-01 0.12633122824570348000
1968-11-01 0.20456702091893603000
1968-12-01 0.26193716387646876000
1969-01-01 0.39159662367580740000
1969-02-01 0.21426562928456970000
1969-03-01 -0.04133433127934313000
1969-04-01 -0.05812709938237169000
1969-05-01 -0.05203687488205311500
1969-06-01 -0.19988484414205598000
1969-07-01 -0.24105599930378602000
1969-08-01 -0.07579080444821117000
1969-09-01 -0.08434413655706678000
1969-10-01 -0.03585804751918711400
1969-11-01 0.12885186730358544000
1969-12-01 0.20989860759429760000
1970-01-01 0.28039958371970210000
1970-02-01 0.45022316643644630000
1970-03-01 0.53268777973688250000
1970-04-01 0.59871133958802110000
1970-05-01 0.62689600411287860000
1970-06-01 0.77145536477360910000
1970-07-01 0.98150710662747030000
1970-08-01 1.03595379313295190000
1970-09-01 0.90796455898529940000
1970-10-01 0.77804314800897830000
1970-11-01 0.67877014345794250000
1970-12-01 0.67713104666545650000
1971-01-01 0.80730414339727890000
1971-02-01 0.66847644930766690000
1971-03-01 0.63789370687364620000
1971-04-01 0.54134245955417220000
1971-05-01 0.30868710030832597000
1971-06-01 0.14678755683355680000
1971-07-01 0.13633571118795790000
1971-08-01 0.06650003179179668000
1971-09-01 -0.09041019706200107000
1971-10-01 -0.09763270637093532000
1971-11-01 0.09990535619279092000
1971-12-01 0.41938894133193950000
1972-01-01 0.58316407012581900000
1972-02-01 0.55097517015645360000
1972-03-01 0.65597634925937380000
1972-04-01 0.46825699452261166000
1972-05-01 0.35520179499627060000
1972-06-01 0.29826565277243244000
1972-07-01 0.18506079913207255000
1972-08-01 0.07113556977335277000
1972-09-01 -0.03732294072177716500
1972-10-01 -0.07172425747990227000
1972-11-01 -0.40350427585294624000
1972-12-01 -0.46091465284907746000
1973-01-01 -0.60877043058820910000
1973-02-01 -0.85311242334209590000
1973-03-01 -1.07115191432700560000
1973-04-01 -1.26716632989460250000
1973-05-01 -1.28890646963124360000
1973-06-01 -1.39405865703303840000
1973-07-01 -1.57059479227574100000
1973-08-01 -2.02333792478592000000
1973-09-01 -1.88596125614036400000
1973-10-01 -2.10147543259651440000
1973-11-01 -2.07405414932369000000
1973-12-01 -2.18740551696511300000
1974-01-01 -1.94559810851557670000
1974-02-01 -1.56372447283220130000
1974-03-01 -1.20871995074656420000
1974-04-01 -0.90956784330481490000
1974-05-01 -0.67743955211404460000
1974-06-01 -0.57684094555370980000
1974-07-01 -0.51501014516803270000
1974-08-01 -0.35575134209193840000
1974-09-01 -0.12893786914321960000
1974-10-01 0.40881392060223515000
1974-11-01 0.97343855559193730000
1974-12-01 1.69021684599222180000
1975-01-01 1.73395624407218250000
1975-02-01 1.72809315765941180000
1975-03-01 1.64727071864059950000
1975-04-01 1.31370918824592580000
1975-05-01 1.05391250659299420000
1975-06-01 0.41240131912246950000
1975-07-01 0.05508509692518577500
1975-08-01 -0.04119967611169077000
1975-09-01 -0.19935307258176010000
1975-10-01 -0.10794561479156307000
1975-11-01 -0.06974531997382226000
1975-12-01 -0.08622465969422223000
1976-01-01 0.08993165327178276000
1976-02-01 0.04689746607641006000
1976-03-01 -0.03005983976950802000
1976-04-01 -0.04381316264892535000
1976-05-01 -0.15593977651943840000
1976-06-01 -0.15056299045664678000
1976-07-01 -0.07449624464272116000
1976-08-01 -0.01872127148666931000
1976-09-01 0.09052778898720033000
1976-10-01 -0.01095368865338012600
1976-11-01 -0.01196529622585626100
1976-12-01 -0.17260638989043564000
1977-01-01 -0.43115112498904007000
1977-02-01 -0.35503722902826440000
1977-03-01 -0.30511411121381180000
1977-04-01 -0.06948483179472835000
1977-05-01 0.10950945058061727000
1977-06-01 0.18291172823708580000
1977-07-01 0.26945673368748650000
1977-08-01 0.19227992857826050000
1977-09-01 0.18575877583821876000
1977-10-01 0.09798992333980688000
1977-11-01 0.00025972701459335367
1977-12-01 0.04370580476252477000
1978-01-01 0.20030414808985620000
1978-02-01 0.51125123598218360000
1978-03-01 0.78316527402994540000
1978-04-01 0.69201461777780990000
1978-05-01 0.36681418597139930000
1978-06-01 0.16103829451325966000
1978-07-01 -0.15129348410512114000
1978-08-01 -0.35452565652906920000
1978-09-01 -0.46171168455824260000
1978-10-01 -0.62897790064165590000
1978-11-01 -0.83657026109156290000
1978-12-01 -1.02913069298365030000
1979-01-01 -1.32617224004512920000
1979-02-01 -1.34321470904477860000
1979-03-01 -1.43311915246690500000
1979-04-01 -1.59359319204178850000
1979-05-01 -1.43406706210287170000
1979-06-01 -1.21621691605203490000
1979-07-01 -1.03358753786358350000
1979-08-01 -0.81718358311658390000
1979-09-01 -0.98705074517675360000
1979-10-01 -1.33458948281484410000
1979-11-01 -1.43728922823753180000
1979-12-01 -1.53825315797159900000
1980-01-01 -1.54926399840035560000
1980-02-01 -1.48951153129179800000
1980-03-01 -1.24206360772737260000
1980-04-01 -0.81998931833684410000
1980-05-01 -0.19275273124012282000
1980-06-01 0.35787142450228480000
1980-07-01 0.44150185801024390000
1980-08-01 -0.01386213214646598600
1980-09-01 -0.41532222187556467000
1980-10-01 -0.55797880460447800000
1980-11-01 -0.53416816655281740000
1980-12-01 -0.42575588976003270000
1981-01-01 -0.28140205999447054000
1981-02-01 -0.42075208620594530000
1981-03-01 -0.42974564639034135000
1981-04-01 -0.57920463489916530000
1981-05-01 -0.63203282966194800000
1981-06-01 -0.59322258962614790000
1981-07-01 -0.41092813175054560000
1981-08-01 -0.22219052044470206000
1981-09-01 -0.17930246849149410000
1981-10-01 0.20445791317511025000
1981-11-01 0.50051908220697940000
1981-12-01 0.54899655873636990000
1982-01-01 0.52294946363298970000
1982-02-01 0.50522583382379090000
1982-03-01 0.47660302145668987000
1982-04-01 0.41741799210506414000
1982-05-01 0.34785376692890174000
1982-06-01 0.30372710350061594000
1982-07-01 0.74655051323166080000
1982-08-01 1.00401691136231760000
1982-09-01 1.24519213824543700000
1982-10-01 1.32788951277851770000
1982-11-01 1.26560966299262200000
1982-12-01 0.96795081810736580000
1983-01-01 0.57374864919521280000
1983-02-01 0.25225634319500795000
1983-03-01 0.28491573315399005000
1983-04-01 0.14322120065774777000
1983-05-01 0.04585723931603270000
1983-06-01 -0.10225470006095970000
1983-07-01 -0.16053517727839510000
1983-08-01 -0.26364145983423700000
1983-09-01 -0.18372331088862637000
1983-10-01 -0.20693530182168823000
1983-11-01 -0.22513612080246206000
1983-12-01 -0.05950979220263081000
1984-01-01 0.09587085146862302000
1984-02-01 0.16782411597428000000
1984-03-01 0.34868750391255426000
1984-04-01 0.62539548009136900000
1984-05-01 0.57490539852774370000
1984-06-01 0.51785875890549900000
1984-07-01 0.37241700107286124000
1984-08-01 0.42898927034607864000
1984-09-01 0.60189497877940260000
1984-10-01 0.47387903836978784000
1984-11-01 0.69999511491002710000
1984-12-01 0.68336659929347300000
1985-01-01 0.70430862130533570000
1985-02-01 0.67829658133040970000
1985-03-01 0.53707095933463360000
1985-04-01 0.64181359666771180000
1985-05-01 0.81229798088267740000
1985-06-01 0.95450152685001320000
1985-07-01 0.81422310843062550000
1985-08-01 0.69593700870718060000
1985-09-01 0.58660197155209310000
1985-10-01 0.22204259809650467000
1985-11-01 0.21438516683098930000
1985-12-01 0.44456213480063106000
1986-01-01 0.30180064603606266000
1986-02-01 0.45818973281009645000
1986-03-01 0.61378504318678350000
1986-04-01 0.36295005477091113000
1986-05-01 0.12006686011022909000
1986-06-01 -0.11191560606215463000
1986-07-01 -0.19548886287586534000
1986-08-01 -0.31189558956204280000
1986-09-01 -0.35102898777891770000
1986-10-01 -0.49761412766674346000
1986-11-01 -0.53962435273351010000
1986-12-01 -0.70169801293797470000
1987-01-01 -1.06103685501069740000
1987-02-01 -0.86821083967768880000
1987-03-01 -0.88168940545047370000
1987-04-01 -0.87831659366104250000
1987-05-01 -0.82316186715742290000
1987-06-01 -0.91645724166238620000
1987-07-01 -0.81749598876045690000
1987-08-01 -0.66982588171775950000
1987-09-01 -0.83969391774335410000
1987-10-01 -0.70791442405175700000
1987-11-01 -0.59477962099738680000
1987-12-01 -0.53004941991627230000
1988-01-01 -0.38251441853820460000
1988-02-01 -0.27985463117679110000
1988-03-01 -0.34780580990075677000
1988-04-01 -0.38045824704944825000
1988-05-01 -0.35509887096372960000
1988-06-01 -0.39265648359546030000
1988-07-01 -0.34217373385538385000
1988-08-01 -0.27467254312552714000
1988-09-01 -0.29208838537709575000
1988-10-01 -0.07168247666235601000
1988-11-01 -0.17754315658250241000
1988-12-01 -0.18774787109681632000
1989-01-01 -0.20601975375537110000
1989-02-01 -0.29027564548626780000
1989-03-01 -0.30455252014203220000
1989-04-01 -0.17960838773623250000
1989-05-01 0.00879582815173292200
1989-06-01 0.36330085589071070000
1989-07-01 0.49520015290433780000
1989-08-01 0.36570139480462655000
1989-09-01 0.22736228737177400000
1989-10-01 -0.05091712687385208000
1989-11-01 -0.27844384492199664000
1989-12-01 -0.37323774644665420000
1990-01-01 -0.55513269154191310000
1990-02-01 -0.94864853978307560000
1990-03-01 -0.91691210822834560000
1990-04-01 -0.98774930193544610000
1990-05-01 -1.04089301515219620000
1990-06-01 -1.23013153620799450000
1990-07-01 -1.43541756861977880000
1990-08-01 -1.66731626930195940000
1990-09-01 -1.57370211285892970000
1990-10-01 -1.39511726514569960000
1990-11-01 -0.92922205462636020000
1990-12-01 -0.65550632338393610000
1991-01-01 -0.35282185161143265000
1991-02-01 0.16880315284900083000
1991-03-01 0.23281369983894960000
1991-04-01 -0.14963764912595260000
1991-05-01 -0.45395201251016426000
1991-06-01 -0.67179960998410470000
1991-07-01 -0.87694910080394180000
1991-08-01 -0.98699422692040920000
1991-09-01 -0.90770174349649220000
1991-10-01 -0.75455900830452180000
1991-11-01 -0.46574574226019444000
1991-12-01 -0.17676746870962360000
1992-01-01 -0.01524690590032548400
1992-02-01 -0.22683015821438265000
1992-03-01 -0.36390051227115644000
1992-04-01 -0.32746015880795250000
1992-05-01 -0.39795053246450450000
1992-06-01 -0.53175525513602380000
1992-07-01 -0.45199795996835224000
1992-08-01 -0.29968467142346544000
1992-09-01 -0.31816399770207950000
1992-10-01 -0.39188854418449437000
1992-11-01 -0.45401928839960750000
1992-12-01 -0.51525523890591040000
1993-01-01 -0.90793486983894190000
1993-02-01 -0.87347962972434800000
1993-03-01 -0.68140570360017660000
1993-04-01 -0.36632248958073516000
1993-05-01 -0.33161161147740580000
1993-06-01 -0.05942697369351916000
1993-07-01 0.11424649644666900000
1993-08-01 0.08362873887584510000
1993-09-01 0.07305239483765646000
1993-10-01 0.01162921554980675400
1993-11-01 0.00955953208135883900
1993-12-01 -0.04121085677350828000
1994-01-01 -0.37120086130665060000
1994-02-01 -0.59346702687408880000
1994-03-01 -0.72696967333768210000
1994-04-01 -0.86657578606152020000
1994-05-01 -0.99460260947197570000
1994-06-01 -1.01899283580593080000
1994-07-01 -1.09546842381099730000
1994-08-01 -1.12005920459196000000
1994-09-01 -1.00665756313936750000
1994-10-01 -0.95936000352405770000
1994-11-01 -1.04216668060037040000
1994-12-01 -1.04400712429304900000
1995-01-01 -1.01674628290396060000
1995-02-01 -0.83450675474602620000
1995-03-01 -0.54379492382092820000
1995-04-01 -0.35014810502266414000
1995-05-01 -0.06536085154600459000
1995-06-01 0.13465114954590868000
1995-07-01 0.19550015470782060000
1995-08-01 0.10861117821036192000
1995-09-01 0.04852953514715226000
1995-10-01 0.01352152640230594600
1995-11-01 0.15543671556570854000
1995-12-01 0.11012248261131642000
1996-01-01 0.08101499643750569000
1996-02-01 0.27679483411227307000
1996-03-01 0.22013588890230554000
1996-04-01 0.06024729449019032000
1996-05-01 0.02834791395303149000
1996-06-01 -0.06787347361354470000
1996-07-01 -0.14543116864230324000
1996-08-01 -0.14130913757661490000
1996-09-01 -0.27670882200014807000
1996-10-01 -0.25091285347991865000
1996-11-01 -0.22760443959444723000
1996-12-01 -0.26440249458719060000
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