Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle Component of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle Component of GDP
Series ID BBKMCY
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-04-01
Last Updated 2026-06-01 7:33 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The cycle component of GDP is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 6.0538482693862670000
1960-02-01 -1.6858364824678830000
1960-03-01 -5.2343992672838540000
1960-04-01 -1.2365321115817505000
1960-05-01 -2.8518781952263494000
1960-06-01 -4.1551007987092450000
1960-07-01 -2.6973717685226797000
1960-08-01 -2.6486593792619995000
1960-09-01 -3.2478271137730883000
1960-10-01 -3.2516640770119354000
1960-11-01 -6.8687023838006525000
1960-12-01 -7.0913053876212990000
1961-01-01 -1.9698609818565518000
1961-02-01 -1.7384906207400759000
1961-03-01 2.0007476431919330000
1961-04-01 3.9797639748272910000
1961-05-01 3.9681495725683886000
1961-06-01 4.1998456816651160000
1961-07-01 3.0722524396878750000
1961-08-01 4.6890026761668100000
1961-09-01 0.9018536159807469000
1961-10-01 5.3508109411870210000
1961-11-01 5.2269243603163130000
1961-12-01 3.3258394464839440000
1962-01-01 -1.3176537412945070000
1962-02-01 5.4677853229706960000
1962-03-01 2.1604966601058235000
1962-04-01 0.8928890445454658000
1962-05-01 -0.2726098762437872000
1962-06-01 -1.3304733717970372000
1962-07-01 1.4481365146436156000
1962-08-01 -0.1678323605493618500
1962-09-01 1.6592809715026560000
1962-10-01 -0.8623839431661976000
1962-11-01 0.6584258938920746000
1962-12-01 -0.9708040413313308000
1963-01-01 0.5701535379975795000
1963-02-01 3.5678600145712793000
1963-03-01 1.6583822941121107000
1963-04-01 3.4949646876299125000
1963-05-01 2.6876903564452380000
1963-06-01 1.4585819852957600000
1963-07-01 0.5559695600812822000
1963-08-01 0.6903816230536213000
1963-09-01 2.0134167246360010000
1963-10-01 2.9143821767691125000
1963-11-01 0.3980425562199121400
1963-12-01 1.2183258901515341000
1964-01-01 2.5664119223574860000
1964-02-01 3.0053869009264016000
1964-03-01 1.6058333704114303000
1964-04-01 3.6633701653601696000
1964-05-01 2.2560964037711777000
1964-06-01 0.3990043477894323000
1964-07-01 3.3746772859871923000
1964-08-01 0.7938190863706476000
1964-09-01 1.5540111622055643000
1964-10-01 -2.8805692721765572000
1964-11-01 6.6581182848578260000
1964-12-01 4.7405902259302280000
1965-01-01 2.7852298808013494000
1965-02-01 2.4636997607370468000
1965-03-01 5.4530567235788590000
1965-04-01 1.9785531952760524000
1965-05-01 2.5353219896763015000
1965-06-01 2.2543101983434144000
1965-07-01 4.5000835440416450000
1965-08-01 1.5707305020326740000
1965-09-01 2.0368511774201190000
1965-10-01 4.5443024704532180000
1965-11-01 4.0869596603102630000
1965-12-01 4.7733108100782870000
1966-01-01 3.6145108766347738000
1966-02-01 4.0597746582747000000
1966-03-01 4.7052527078558795000
1966-04-01 -0.1704147798891350600
1966-05-01 -0.5501067429224084000
1966-06-01 1.1558023491782796000
1966-07-01 0.6454963118864019000
1966-08-01 0.9567841350074137000
1966-09-01 1.5780623642491103000
1966-10-01 0.6515285999046477000
1966-11-01 -2.2703628261031357000
1966-12-01 -0.9329772231762237000
1967-01-01 -0.0511856697045012240
1967-02-01 -3.3175463298857353000
1967-03-01 -0.9403269809317656000
1967-04-01 -0.2971301803974300000
1967-05-01 -1.5020787268992781000
1967-06-01 0.4006948515544710400
1967-07-01 -1.1177441800808228000
1967-08-01 4.1762355848346180000
1967-09-01 0.0504109610109149100
1967-10-01 0.2044692301243872800
1967-11-01 6.0726631042210110000
1967-12-01 4.4190825675304700000
1968-01-01 -0.7494303444630894000
1968-02-01 1.3844852782018242000
1968-03-01 2.1371180441423987000
1968-04-01 0.6546006689417071000
1968-05-01 3.2442666063744516000
1968-06-01 1.0184829027996856000
1968-07-01 0.8771309030336312000
1968-08-01 -1.4706907850367660000
1968-09-01 1.9285411560093002000
1968-10-01 2.0961961273898090000
1968-11-01 2.5017287101065264000
1968-12-01 -0.4588324539513784000
1969-01-01 1.0576812102360376000
1969-02-01 1.2029227190960590000
1969-03-01 2.4371304088918770000
1969-04-01 0.2223851643013130000
1969-05-01 -1.3435273700417338000
1969-06-01 0.3109292408197496000
1969-07-01 0.1138925522912930800
1969-08-01 0.3557177236120882000
1969-09-01 -0.3524178262612917000
1969-10-01 -0.5678820885081330000
1969-11-01 -4.6727778939921345000
1969-12-01 -2.1941996718864250000
1970-01-01 -5.8741776174757390000
1970-02-01 -1.9978489705294010000
1970-03-01 -3.2641050005206287000
1970-04-01 -3.1067652007431246000
1970-05-01 -1.1601504908868936000
1970-06-01 -1.0295077995620607000
1970-07-01 0.0117065295439626740
1970-08-01 -2.5760833098262825000
1970-09-01 -3.2370007024011054000
1970-10-01 -6.8930904408802265000
1970-11-01 -4.3634552523272410000
1970-12-01 6.8840916580829590000
1971-01-01 2.3139618131557365000
1971-02-01 0.7140566517552450000
1971-03-01 0.3955334819203025000
1971-04-01 1.2547140190284756000
1971-05-01 1.5590817729178860000
1971-06-01 1.9226677859049028000
1971-07-01 -2.1441239863586934000
1971-08-01 -0.6096490294944885000
1971-09-01 3.2984821471969115000
1971-10-01 0.6666961048657973000
1971-11-01 2.4095780713559960000
1971-12-01 3.9302485258949704000
1972-01-01 5.4016642845389030000
1972-02-01 2.6086943653858330000
1972-03-01 3.5188694892994070000
1972-04-01 2.9605034204593210000
1972-05-01 1.4183335600084876000
1972-06-01 1.5716013924727652000
1972-07-01 -0.6589435934220794000
1972-08-01 4.9730952287232840000
1972-09-01 3.9617313867258224000
1972-10-01 4.5355648926428580000
1972-11-01 5.3902293274369530000
1972-12-01 4.4465070895723310000
1973-01-01 4.1839990456580380000
1973-02-01 4.4799865203712550000
1973-03-01 1.1287060404904232000
1973-04-01 -0.9641184393472493000
1973-05-01 0.5732509460254045000
1973-06-01 -0.2534735901197449000
1973-07-01 -0.5351932204509777000
1973-08-01 -1.7599412949683368000
1973-09-01 -0.6678446060333958000
1973-10-01 2.8957096360076875000
1973-11-01 1.4037379030738046000
1973-12-01 -3.1802047838763134000
1974-01-01 -2.5883109341227906000
1974-02-01 -2.3595903850674618000
1974-03-01 -1.4537706154592360000
1974-04-01 -2.8890791787134704000
1974-05-01 0.3058091439570870000
1974-06-01 -2.5259154922682168000
1974-07-01 -2.0934512852805290000
1974-08-01 -4.1276711134592350000
1974-09-01 -3.4265965490834804000
1974-10-01 -4.5838163944766800000
1974-11-01 -10.6852675401148820000
1974-12-01 -14.7803124075604960000
1975-01-01 -7.1127512878949360000
1975-02-01 -8.7904750047719440000
1975-03-01 -8.2529876855709650000
1975-04-01 0.2814399048810618500
1975-05-01 -1.0627541915387893000
1975-06-01 1.5100843163608568000
1975-07-01 4.2291934681057155000
1975-08-01 3.0712835829306275000
1975-09-01 3.5146932155995243000
1975-10-01 1.2522963963362985000
1975-11-01 0.0156093882160167760
1975-12-01 4.0226398492957390000
1976-01-01 5.3870939420278530000
1976-02-01 3.3799030587943580000
1976-03-01 1.3298542988897255000
1976-04-01 1.0736075128276960000
1976-05-01 1.3471638121845158000
1976-06-01 0.8984570169076744000
1976-07-01 1.1842470481324334000
1976-08-01 0.5587596816810673000
1976-09-01 0.6649000265098673000
1976-10-01 -0.7524675792256926000
1976-11-01 3.4849751890077760000
1976-12-01 4.3741302027781700000
1977-01-01 -1.5539244850192780000
1977-02-01 5.5307698708750070000
1977-03-01 4.9933662899030720000
1977-04-01 2.9275570310325785000
1977-05-01 2.4382447540483970000
1977-06-01 2.9001213970691135000
1977-07-01 0.9078402041814001000
1977-08-01 1.3112956213074827000
1977-09-01 0.6443698203847525000
1977-10-01 0.5690964660246999000
1977-11-01 1.1875069317021205000
1977-12-01 1.6122230183425208000
1978-01-01 -6.0101378115891730000
1978-02-01 4.3035525002288600000
1978-03-01 6.6059274254437900000
1978-04-01 7.8810628425631390000
1978-05-01 2.4005248972421050000
1978-06-01 3.1185224972757215000
1978-07-01 -0.5591682735242341000
1978-08-01 2.2945632056943484000
1978-09-01 0.7912635885875883000
1978-10-01 2.2981654319312820000
1978-11-01 2.1560968708629960000
1978-12-01 0.6780576334628092000
1979-01-01 -3.2912514710533530000
1979-02-01 -0.5733912618123345000
1979-03-01 3.0311912627757110000
1979-04-01 -6.4478844862678650000
1979-05-01 4.0306662251432640000
1979-06-01 -1.1197190115046196000
1979-07-01 -1.3491274663091475000
1979-08-01 -3.0523620501509745000
1979-09-01 -2.1300699102492846000
1979-10-01 -0.0443618834537578000
1979-11-01 -2.5297931163383580000
1979-12-01 -1.8308044604975133000
1980-01-01 -0.3781676152817703400
1980-02-01 -3.1099237375575090000
1980-03-01 -7.7766669021293370000
1980-04-01 -11.2899411960898470000
1980-05-01 -11.6444927201873920000
1980-06-01 -6.4757759898357310000
1980-07-01 -2.9803241889938150000
1980-08-01 0.9323107629227910000
1980-09-01 5.8918145531861230000
1980-10-01 4.9691513392469190000
1980-11-01 3.0510244537490580000
1980-12-01 1.5665314686249010000
1981-01-01 -0.9717930254569880000
1981-02-01 -2.2754090879873140000
1981-03-01 -1.2689531866203931000
1981-04-01 -0.7436750521475173000
1981-05-01 -1.3823521397939573000
1981-06-01 -1.3299385083725441000
1981-07-01 -0.1408952315024900000
1981-08-01 -2.5580782246206244000
1981-09-01 -4.2648643854505950000
1981-10-01 -6.3727005092905190000
1981-11-01 -6.6108136000161270000
1981-12-01 -7.5485665401008730000
1982-01-01 -8.6656932172547630000
1982-02-01 4.4023806566829780000
1982-03-01 -3.8551240742919775000
1982-04-01 -4.6714718509970020000
1982-05-01 -2.5905487505847944000
1982-06-01 -2.9943853417418980000
1982-07-01 -2.6602818642910050000
1982-08-01 -4.8525766629962900000
1982-09-01 -2.2909726563339676000
1982-10-01 -4.5593667166545390000
1982-11-01 -2.0059719546234223000
1982-12-01 -1.3281159618681370000
1983-01-01 5.8977835060262150000
1983-02-01 -0.8026330355848106000
1983-03-01 4.0139860181620630000
1983-04-01 4.2749442299542560000
1983-05-01 4.3561941832550035000
1983-06-01 5.8568662983513710000
1983-07-01 4.5180959973203870000
1983-08-01 3.2579851652472525000
1983-09-01 6.0578329057766490000
1983-10-01 4.0233255318869470000
1983-11-01 3.6403105215308690000
1983-12-01 3.7827777383707890000
1984-01-01 5.4871942649971670000
1984-02-01 3.8506282202861275000
1984-03-01 1.6435814892445868000
1984-04-01 2.2090477697848110000
1984-05-01 2.8886710791528096000
1984-06-01 1.7008673281355955000
1984-07-01 0.2406605636706057600
1984-08-01 0.1411168949037614000
1984-09-01 -1.7198732649087836000
1984-10-01 1.1068673178880242000
1984-11-01 1.6138879997164940000
1984-12-01 -0.0499988475161993200
1985-01-01 -0.7294601855023036000
1985-02-01 0.0345967097235055900
1985-03-01 1.7925606258492590000
1985-04-01 -0.8199406673838172000
1985-05-01 0.9796668759348153000
1985-06-01 -2.0493417104469263000
1985-07-01 -0.5825385963743626000
1985-08-01 2.0871927847575273000
1985-09-01 0.1996251064551589600
1985-10-01 -0.6275273909221620000
1985-11-01 1.2916134028552146000
1985-12-01 0.4934200144347908300
1986-01-01 2.9585200105839426000
1986-02-01 -2.9717051177981904000
1986-03-01 -2.9806910841082210000
1986-04-01 1.2388891770690875000
1986-05-01 -1.0471154828374956000
1986-06-01 -0.8435379102262697000
1986-07-01 0.8290794467339618000
1986-08-01 -0.1832210092198385300
1986-09-01 1.4561594418425070000
1986-10-01 -1.2534024036002744000
1986-11-01 -0.5211563786708399000
1986-12-01 2.5235907237952975000
1987-01-01 -2.9935749874321340000
1987-02-01 4.6762627037110410000
1987-03-01 -0.1625988709236795300
1987-04-01 0.5522017232883842000
1987-05-01 1.0550270853415853000
1987-06-01 1.5516951858051810000
1987-07-01 2.6031794521985576000
1987-08-01 0.3017101072343644000
1987-09-01 2.4304357570278867000
1987-10-01 2.6497202348285693000
1987-11-01 0.5562810695999594000
1987-12-01 1.5538644724399509000
1988-01-01 -1.1336626079635583000
1988-02-01 1.8552675090135127000
1988-03-01 1.8375744741107005000
1988-04-01 1.1269864621635810000
1988-05-01 -0.1343918127832285000
1988-06-01 1.6121344775614654000
1988-07-01 -0.4825682788268498300
1988-08-01 0.2361911155313571300
1988-09-01 0.5532402421791931000
1988-10-01 1.1740416194079230000
1988-11-01 1.1402125238423322000
1988-12-01 2.5960994168267700000
1989-01-01 0.8193341784209067000
1989-02-01 -2.4531599568117400000
1989-03-01 -0.4071244502066409000
1989-04-01 0.6374209625564374000
1989-05-01 -1.9170481675810578000
1989-06-01 -1.4880010190622401000
1989-07-01 -3.7176680269948292000
1989-08-01 2.3482613581851950000
1989-09-01 -1.9851113988746978000
1989-10-01 -2.0376863852169260000
1989-11-01 0.3951754011738118000
1989-12-01 -0.3449873308596133600
1990-01-01 -0.3032951242687028000
1990-02-01 1.7187668841267643000
1990-03-01 0.2560923631462130000
1990-04-01 -3.8109109186607713000
1990-05-01 -1.0486201423029076000
1990-06-01 -1.0509620533878299000
1990-07-01 -3.0826965984352970000
1990-08-01 -1.3609600918791545000
1990-09-01 -4.0187409615610490000
1990-10-01 -4.0932535934103200000
1990-11-01 -7.1447718993033940000
1990-12-01 -4.8441260370495360000
1991-01-01 -4.9922182154672010000
1991-02-01 -4.3538246772544490000
1991-03-01 -4.3953647212810390000
1991-04-01 0.7906102445109269000
1991-05-01 0.6698358565975867000
1991-06-01 0.0223923901592024700
1991-07-01 0.8335578310870144000
1991-08-01 -0.8108188807198696000
1991-09-01 0.6943065940232073000
1991-10-01 -1.3328692963912640000
1991-11-01 -1.8060059744270045000
1991-12-01 -3.5399749164913850000
1992-01-01 -0.5982521952991109000
1992-02-01 0.8643636701898520000
1992-03-01 2.5583250997855576000
1992-04-01 1.8023683490327933000
1992-05-01 0.0302300937944465780
1992-06-01 0.6643369734087657000
1992-07-01 1.4706454837912188000
1992-08-01 -2.6301813375887844000
1992-09-01 0.6156749108153026000
1992-10-01 1.0149324943706548000
1992-11-01 0.2090060150286093300
1992-12-01 1.0147769295586050000
1993-01-01 0.6297463461214633000
1993-02-01 -0.0266798765616460540
1993-03-01 -1.4235154591776698000
1993-04-01 0.5228173183778646000
1993-05-01 -0.2765415417720533000
1993-06-01 -0.2124259072693603400
1993-07-01 -0.4669887960739729000
1993-08-01 -0.2906389526097274000
1993-09-01 1.7291310523297494000
1993-10-01 2.2881131912375070000
1993-11-01 1.3246232948885732000
1993-12-01 1.9690069521656908000
1994-01-01 0.1750840181756630000
1994-02-01 0.4515192260290144000
1994-03-01 4.2739752276722704000
1994-04-01 1.1574504559442977000
1994-05-01 1.5866560220574320000
1994-06-01 1.8302832717073910000
1994-07-01 0.0139291796074481060
1994-08-01 2.3930762236304590000
1994-09-01 0.5925204185996327000
1994-10-01 1.6908398179374120000
1994-11-01 2.2342296392335035000
1994-12-01 2.6379816161728664000
1995-01-01 -0.2243253688396224000
1995-02-01 -1.2653529568161614000
1995-03-01 -1.0063322121525922000
1995-04-01 -1.8742224176731770000
1995-05-01 -0.1639851211345830800
1995-06-01 0.4911811237504098000
1995-07-01 -1.9069164651236254000
1995-08-01 2.8321063554516526000
1995-09-01 1.4710251965419783000
1995-10-01 -1.0526711348314222000
1995-11-01 0.2479203081428293700
1995-12-01 0.8597428420812608000
1996-01-01 -3.3554058756186893000
1996-02-01 2.5198806351955803000
1996-03-01 0.8962509641807324000
1996-04-01 1.8738462520793078000
1996-05-01 2.2429509819767954000
1996-06-01 1.4916975675705098000
1996-07-01 0.0592722953667514400
1996-08-01 0.9510795566516124000
1996-09-01 1.1177122249443463000
1996-10-01 0.2984900940507356000
1996-11-01 1.8789140876508035000
1996-12-01 0.0234058237501024720
1997-01-01 0.1650724889070162600
1997-02-01 3.8774222055170435000
1997-03-01 1.7062129505703691000
1997-04-01 1.4438054271487832000
1997-05-01 0.8618336307373590000
1997-06-01 1.8422831758679825000
1997-07-01 2.9972424366061280000
1997-08-01 1.9211371489461067000
1997-09-01 2.3941222232608492000
1997-10-01 1.4984345789469309000
1997-11-01 1.9716167964396996000
1997-12-01 0.8342824946181071000
1998-01-01 0.8963793825888480000
1998-02-01 1.4671864235895566000
1998-03-01 0.3126662255832368700
1998-04-01 0.6159943552909425000
1998-05-01 1.3105224176657835000
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1998-08-01 3.4673788573181870000
1998-09-01 0.8895674225166679000
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