Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle Component of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle Component of GDP
Series ID BBKMCY
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-08-01
Last Updated 2026-10-05 7:33 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The cycle component of GDP is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 6.0572632705
1960-02-01 -1.6663868035
1960-03-01 -5.2090395472
1960-04-01 -1.1671877166
1960-05-01 -2.8349026631
1960-06-01 -4.1402648410
1960-07-01 -2.6905969935
1960-08-01 -2.6441559250
1960-09-01 -3.2441084189
1960-10-01 -3.2477399766
1960-11-01 -6.8487825482
1960-12-01 -7.0910603977
1961-01-01 -1.9404716583
1961-02-01 -1.7278757590
1961-03-01 2.0230761249
1961-04-01 3.9842026679
1961-05-01 3.9788363430
1961-06-01 4.2065765083
1961-07-01 3.0603777600
1961-08-01 4.6892438001
1961-09-01 0.9041352013
1961-10-01 5.3788595072
1961-11-01 5.2521924575
1961-12-01 3.3519670516
1962-01-01 -1.3072397285
1962-02-01 5.5068873967
1962-03-01 2.1755218868
1962-04-01 0.9208293131
1962-05-01 -0.2395522514
1962-06-01 -1.3146901392
1962-07-01 1.4631027292
1962-08-01 -0.1480152480
1962-09-01 1.6791456062
1962-10-01 -0.8683390022
1962-11-01 0.6745399301
1962-12-01 -0.9655562478
1963-01-01 0.5709557229
1963-02-01 3.5770125246
1963-03-01 1.6614316539
1963-04-01 3.5175415853
1963-05-01 2.7038959308
1963-06-01 1.4748397555
1963-07-01 0.5784915243
1963-08-01 0.7100601105
1963-09-01 2.0292135619
1963-10-01 2.9342840690
1963-11-01 0.4107914272
1963-12-01 1.2246591591
1964-01-01 2.5855006670
1964-02-01 3.0378289314
1964-03-01 1.6290444964
1964-04-01 3.6902774914
1964-05-01 2.2811369758
1964-06-01 0.4046434055
1964-07-01 3.3882954760
1964-08-01 0.8046134966
1964-09-01 1.5679197891
1964-10-01 -2.8933215387
1964-11-01 6.6648743494
1964-12-01 4.7443310114
1965-01-01 2.7824816771
1965-02-01 2.4740111082
1965-03-01 5.4789968369
1965-04-01 2.0027719816
1965-05-01 2.5592128162
1965-06-01 2.2743333399
1965-07-01 4.5374807377
1965-08-01 1.6060494104
1965-09-01 2.0792407242
1965-10-01 4.5890040388
1965-11-01 4.1114417618
1965-12-01 4.7885897283
1966-01-01 3.6130078860
1966-02-01 4.0559478472
1966-03-01 4.7097459930
1966-04-01 -0.1779825266
1966-05-01 -0.5506896862
1966-06-01 1.1638934927
1966-07-01 0.6455361854
1966-08-01 0.9490046621
1966-09-01 1.5796844557
1966-10-01 0.6660907105
1966-11-01 -2.2510575014
1966-12-01 -0.9082545903
1967-01-01 -0.0259785259
1967-02-01 -3.3053035647
1967-03-01 -0.9190598196
1967-04-01 -0.2819184842
1967-05-01 -1.4999639368
1967-06-01 0.4191817528
1967-07-01 -1.1363774436
1967-08-01 4.1868363408
1967-09-01 0.0517517883
1967-10-01 0.1683645256
1967-11-01 6.0777733497
1967-12-01 4.4334391275
1968-01-01 -0.7624210881
1968-02-01 1.4082773473
1968-03-01 2.1619175687
1968-04-01 0.6718631815
1968-05-01 3.2613088152
1968-06-01 1.0346337628
1968-07-01 0.8896805629
1968-08-01 -1.4655461065
1968-09-01 1.9002256261
1968-10-01 2.0788756421
1968-11-01 2.5058416016
1968-12-01 -0.4720584238
1969-01-01 1.0676024759
1969-02-01 1.2085377261
1969-03-01 2.4372395375
1969-04-01 0.2199829454
1969-05-01 -1.3528967644
1969-06-01 0.2970191209
1969-07-01 0.0987005247
1969-08-01 0.3548460081
1969-09-01 -0.3673894745
1969-10-01 -0.5705909940
1969-11-01 -4.6895693829
1969-12-01 -2.1856935998
1970-01-01 -5.8814611238
1970-02-01 -1.9998601527
1970-03-01 -3.2691848795
1970-04-01 -3.1061929220
1970-05-01 -1.1685274207
1970-06-01 -1.0370912492
1970-07-01 0.0240597251
1970-08-01 -2.5689730747
1970-09-01 -3.2332376759
1970-10-01 -6.8989700545
1970-11-01 -4.3864051313
1970-12-01 6.8907122532
1971-01-01 2.3077370713
1971-02-01 0.7118476128
1971-03-01 0.3877905903
1971-04-01 1.2593697218
1971-05-01 1.5497008187
1971-06-01 1.9183096188
1971-07-01 -2.1651909056
1971-08-01 -0.6270634668
1971-09-01 3.2904265441
1971-10-01 0.6388568929
1971-11-01 2.3952087910
1971-12-01 3.9235239811
1972-01-01 5.3967875470
1972-02-01 2.6257455179
1972-03-01 3.5410168349
1972-04-01 2.9646307699
1972-05-01 1.4241440756
1972-06-01 1.5785765955
1972-07-01 -0.6667247550
1972-08-01 4.9765588138
1972-09-01 3.9631872077
1972-10-01 4.5408353063
1972-11-01 5.3863990384
1972-12-01 4.4408526622
1973-01-01 4.1953716625
1973-02-01 4.4887110998
1973-03-01 1.1235700278
1973-04-01 -0.9806844287
1973-05-01 0.5668691012
1973-06-01 -0.2486405161
1973-07-01 -0.5507459176
1973-08-01 -1.7839182115
1973-09-01 -0.6877358532
1973-10-01 2.8750259092
1973-11-01 1.3761556737
1973-12-01 -3.2278784364
1974-01-01 -2.6099404429
1974-02-01 -2.3777655564
1974-03-01 -1.4604832165
1974-04-01 -2.8968520416
1974-05-01 0.3036641638
1974-06-01 -2.5422049762
1974-07-01 -2.1034302501
1974-08-01 -4.1529998260
1974-09-01 -3.4479773873
1974-10-01 -4.5868431944
1974-11-01 -10.6768032895
1974-12-01 -14.7620037888
1975-01-01 -7.0572637834
1975-02-01 -8.7776386964
1975-03-01 -8.2401469977
1975-04-01 0.3049368189
1975-05-01 -1.0537141678
1975-06-01 1.4838840017
1975-07-01 4.2108891161
1975-08-01 3.0558172633
1975-09-01 3.5032484601
1975-10-01 1.2373820191
1975-11-01 -0.0001671186
1975-12-01 4.0267481457
1976-01-01 5.4032011874
1976-02-01 3.3734824252
1976-03-01 1.3279899325
1976-04-01 1.0822478844
1976-05-01 1.3334610700
1976-06-01 0.8970772037
1976-07-01 1.1889699121
1976-08-01 0.5491592798
1976-09-01 0.6690383366
1976-10-01 -0.7505901486
1976-11-01 3.4879737415
1976-12-01 4.3818669018
1977-01-01 -1.5934276594
1977-02-01 5.5335153766
1977-03-01 4.9830913159
1977-04-01 2.9319368531
1977-05-01 2.4393432986
1977-06-01 2.9105883213
1977-07-01 0.9208165899
1977-08-01 1.3130301052
1977-09-01 0.6532726372
1977-10-01 0.5594588011
1977-11-01 1.1801642919
1977-12-01 1.6052000410
1978-01-01 -6.0299522304
1978-02-01 4.3331817883
1978-03-01 6.6481832209
1978-04-01 7.9104505549
1978-05-01 2.4199384814
1978-06-01 3.1381433714
1978-07-01 -0.5629183309
1978-08-01 2.3063299716
1978-09-01 0.7973924390
1978-10-01 2.3020526986
1978-11-01 2.1622174098
1978-12-01 0.6813172506
1979-01-01 -3.3118592721
1979-02-01 -0.5806781049
1979-03-01 3.0317015807
1979-04-01 -6.4888424538
1979-05-01 4.0322274356
1979-06-01 -1.1152898999
1979-07-01 -1.3376638602
1979-08-01 -3.0298105304
1979-09-01 -2.1288645555
1979-10-01 -0.0414384143
1979-11-01 -2.5435669530
1979-12-01 -1.8548385053
1980-01-01 -0.3904165456
1980-02-01 -3.1303962265
1980-03-01 -7.7935549429
1980-04-01 -11.2941532909
1980-05-01 -11.6334841377
1980-06-01 -6.4498297882
1980-07-01 -2.9548711934
1980-08-01 0.9335274294
1980-09-01 5.8827715956
1980-10-01 4.9572714834
1980-11-01 3.0470627923
1980-12-01 1.5790516064
1981-01-01 -0.9645737240
1981-02-01 -2.2697310181
1981-03-01 -1.2616362741
1981-04-01 -0.7582467077
1981-05-01 -1.3940123278
1981-06-01 -1.3353999441
1981-07-01 -0.1488984449
1981-08-01 -2.5683886024
1981-09-01 -4.2721257859
1981-10-01 -6.3698100214
1981-11-01 -6.5921699766
1981-12-01 -7.5402543727
1982-01-01 -8.6970789184
1982-02-01 4.4334774273
1982-03-01 -3.8714364180
1982-04-01 -4.6767298224
1982-05-01 -2.6128060339
1982-06-01 -3.0075053218
1982-07-01 -2.6524744683
1982-08-01 -4.8476903865
1982-09-01 -2.2647843815
1982-10-01 -4.5348434781
1982-11-01 -1.9869521008
1982-12-01 -1.3153543947
1983-01-01 5.9040857237
1983-02-01 -0.8171818587
1983-03-01 4.0263380270
1983-04-01 4.2883485334
1983-05-01 4.3547942483
1983-06-01 5.8687316015
1983-07-01 4.5297247659
1983-08-01 3.2638851343
1983-09-01 6.0813536795
1983-10-01 4.0275912390
1983-11-01 3.6470465366
1983-12-01 3.7880207562
1984-01-01 5.5040963850
1984-02-01 3.8685493233
1984-03-01 1.6636391162
1984-04-01 2.2428785652
1984-05-01 2.9220996583
1984-06-01 1.7186469665
1984-07-01 0.2470266376
1984-08-01 0.1603048612
1984-09-01 -1.7098139064
1984-10-01 1.1164813479
1984-11-01 1.6342348711
1984-12-01 -0.0382068578
1985-01-01 -0.7264706156
1985-02-01 0.0563864380
1985-03-01 1.7991727277
1985-04-01 -0.8156363359
1985-05-01 1.0017855675
1985-06-01 -2.0258372966
1985-07-01 -0.5647335045
1985-08-01 2.1080536461
1985-09-01 0.2158255016
1985-10-01 -0.6305764742
1985-11-01 1.2939051812
1985-12-01 0.5015028252
1986-01-01 2.9735622897
1986-02-01 -2.9594940607
1986-03-01 -2.9590502663
1986-04-01 1.2533597327
1986-05-01 -1.0372438750
1986-06-01 -0.8383347644
1986-07-01 0.8406916438
1986-08-01 -0.1828036730
1986-09-01 1.4689369579
1986-10-01 -1.2489210737
1986-11-01 -0.5167638773
1986-12-01 2.5328967414
1987-01-01 -3.0113934261
1987-02-01 4.6907730292
1987-03-01 -0.1697638276
1987-04-01 0.5657242400
1987-05-01 1.0632996150
1987-06-01 1.5549810930
1987-07-01 2.6085772101
1987-08-01 0.3080667966
1987-09-01 2.4306883537
1987-10-01 2.6657781576
1987-11-01 0.5654282413
1987-12-01 1.5741978971
1988-01-01 -1.1242663090
1988-02-01 1.8764658897
1988-03-01 1.8487834453
1988-04-01 1.1340187944
1988-05-01 -0.1300333493
1988-06-01 1.6208712481
1988-07-01 -0.4731882804
1988-08-01 0.2503931139
1988-09-01 0.5567500118
1988-10-01 1.1866856151
1988-11-01 1.1539308179
1988-12-01 2.6091418424
1989-01-01 0.8234505507
1989-02-01 -2.4596684376
1989-03-01 -0.4023312117
1989-04-01 0.6488326484
1989-05-01 -1.9059700662
1989-06-01 -1.4651826266
1989-07-01 -3.6976804526
1989-08-01 2.3789882164
1989-09-01 -1.9736943087
1989-10-01 -2.0363154655
1989-11-01 0.4106093045
1989-12-01 -0.3376473847
1990-01-01 -0.3032193034
1990-02-01 1.8082872825
1990-03-01 0.1876056657
1990-04-01 -3.8073463413
1990-05-01 -1.0243043037
1990-06-01 -1.0564457754
1990-07-01 -3.1222122663
1990-08-01 -1.3646679841
1990-09-01 -4.0138655459
1990-10-01 -4.1451200582
1990-11-01 -7.1413149179
1990-12-01 -4.8257999881
1991-01-01 -4.9881506115
1991-02-01 -4.3196216745
1991-03-01 -4.4008044358
1991-04-01 0.8222394176
1991-05-01 0.6784004311
1991-06-01 0.0319960657
1991-07-01 0.8275918135
1991-08-01 -0.8144129453
1991-09-01 0.6403893415
1991-10-01 -1.3379181244
1991-11-01 -1.7405168779
1991-12-01 -3.5705619822
1992-01-01 -0.6551183920
1992-02-01 0.8811578629
1992-03-01 2.7113995221
1992-04-01 1.7554238519
1992-05-01 -0.0367025247
1992-06-01 0.7705129654
1992-07-01 1.4282070092
1992-08-01 -2.7091464944
1992-09-01 0.7160046766
1992-10-01 1.0290855514
1992-11-01 0.1655195594
1992-12-01 1.0594671648
1993-01-01 0.4359683337
1993-02-01 0.0049321397
1993-03-01 -1.2638335351
1993-04-01 0.4428386736
1993-05-01 -0.3231242216
1993-06-01 -0.1060666483
1993-07-01 -0.5013747253
1993-08-01 -0.2585186401
1993-09-01 1.7702212586
1993-10-01 2.2527976372
1993-11-01 1.3986807061
1993-12-01 1.9449126152
1994-01-01 0.0969760224
1994-02-01 0.4646987995
1994-03-01 4.2836267737
1994-04-01 1.1473294538
1994-05-01 1.5735121900
1994-06-01 1.8362680856
1994-07-01 -0.0019150198
1994-08-01 2.3988330706
1994-09-01 0.5626595909
1994-10-01 1.7020007835
1994-11-01 2.2276385488
1994-12-01 2.6464792844
1995-01-01 -0.2637994534
1995-02-01 -1.2739055282
1995-03-01 -1.0029681189
1995-04-01 -1.8860714848
1995-05-01 -0.1407281413
1995-06-01 0.4987534854
1995-07-01 -1.9054853246
1995-08-01 2.8740596263
1995-09-01 1.4807590535
1995-10-01 -1.0481018415
1995-11-01 0.2586482595
1995-12-01 0.8837894206
1996-01-01 -3.3867525589
1996-02-01 2.5576971315
1996-03-01 0.9066374397
1996-04-01 1.9008360129
1996-05-01 2.2583443172
1996-06-01 1.4898002174
1996-07-01 0.0571046687
1996-08-01 0.9539521569
1996-09-01 1.1148492120
1996-10-01 0.2980666763
1996-11-01 1.8732064444
1996-12-01 0.0310397445
1997-01-01 0.1632585220
1997-02-01 3.8855669956
1997-03-01 1.7007256445
1997-04-01 1.4432922924
1997-05-01 0.8652027354
1997-06-01 1.8696064612
1997-07-01 3.0125231817
1997-08-01 1.9219297469
1997-09-01 2.4051265974
1997-10-01 1.4881612514
1997-11-01 1.9749979531
1997-12-01 0.8139293779
1998-01-01 0.9135032024
1998-02-01 1.4904721011
1998-03-01 0.3077451609
1998-04-01 0.6437452899
1998-05-01 1.3250113281
1998-06-01 -1.0686532876
1998-07-01 -0.6477830703
1998-08-01 3.4832388440
1998-09-01 0.9056580543
1998-10-01 1.6547880150
1998-11-01 0.0302588908
1998-12-01 0.6328127072
1999-01-01 0.2662304376
1999-02-01 1.9043423559
1999-03-01 -0.0633387018
1999-04-01 0.5915273382
1999-05-01 1.5872422350
1999-06-01 0.3019004109
1999-07-01 1.4877533647
1999-08-01 1.4342238727
1999-09-01 0.3254291101
1999-10-01 3.0191842413
1999-11-01 1.5424303268
1999-12-01 1.9800669164
2000-01-01 0.9324336684
2000-02-01 -0.7965444794
2000-03-01 2.5532387749
2000-04-01 1.4611044466
2000-05-01 -0.4799787019
2000-06-01 1.0968561018
2000-07-01 -1.5007740318
2000-08-01 -0.9610996256
2000-09-01 1.2045362684
2000-10-01 -1.8760183198
2000-11-01 -1.6982123361
2000-12-01 -2.3152332846
2001-01-01 -2.3678868159
2001-02-01 -3.3333933398
2001-03-01 -3.2955187783
2001-04-01 -3.9841933292
2001-05-01 -2.1801167634
2001-06-01 -3.9001981064
2001-07-01 -3.5272212429
2001-08-01 -2.7681582858
2001-09-01 -4.7075335439
2001-10-01 -2.7490436872
2001-11-01 -3.6154341257
2001-12-01 -1.8267468504
2002-01-01 -0.2707067298
2002-02-01 -0.0555627522
2002-03-01 -0.2194262720
2002-04-01 1.2202787343
2002-05-01 0.1420906910
2002-06-01 -0.1477357267
2002-07-01 -1.6443102355
2002-08-01 -1.0370278872
2002-09-01 -2.1199605867
2002-10-01 -1.8378810372
2002-11-01 -0.1233529368
2002-12-01 -2.6800705635
2003-01-01 0.7131940968
2003-02-01 -1.3874644903
2003-03-01 -0.7955820391
2003-04-01 -2.4041160623
2003-05-01 0.1729151958
2003-06-01 1.1541789515
2003-07-01 1.3460345896
2003-08-01 0.3037675922
2003-09-01 2.5867353921
2003-10-01 1.5206370330
2003-11-01 1.7674476432
2003-12-01 0.7991006468
2004-01-01 0.3802681954
2004-02-01 1.5640695842
2004-03-01 2.3978737043
2004-04-01 0.5573962247
2004-05-01 1.6164916819
2004-06-01 0.3997149095
2004-07-01 1.5626266402
2004-08-01 1.0279684046
2004-09-01 0.9035377185
2004-10-01 1.9570916109
2004-11-01 1.1933002088
2004-12-01 2.5820743507
2005-01-01 1.6113451800
2005-02-01 1.2321603644
2005-03-01 -0.3810321789
2005-04-01 1.7694944393
2005-05-01 -0.2602846198
2005-06-01 0.4742100376
2005-07-01 -0.8830914133
2005-08-01 1.6440980661
2005-09-01 -0.1344878780
2005-10-01 1.7064970761
2005-11-01 2.5349134421
2005-12-01 1.4369267035
2006-01-01 1.6496869541
2006-02-01 0.3399236140
2006-03-01 1.0841685750
2006-04-01 -0.4291641015
2006-05-01 0.2557481215
2006-06-01 -0.5223025241
2006-07-01 -1.2342551133
2006-08-01 0.3806322680
2006-09-01 -0.9002072508
2006-10-01 -1.2538962587
2006-11-01 -0.2455080757
2006-12-01 2.0640554019
2007-01-01 -1.4965059700
2007-02-01 0.5124942568
2007-03-01 0.8514522446
2007-04-01 -0.5376565875
2007-05-01 -0.0789193593
2007-06-01 -0.7016305220
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2007-10-01 -1.1524876080
2007-11-01 -0.7310344145
2007-12-01 -2.3802426508
2008-01-01 -2.4223719892
2008-02-01 -3.6881808231
2008-03-01 -3.5602480382
2008-04-01 -2.4845077272
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2008-06-01 -3.1781131102
2008-07-01 -4.1953639424
2008-08-01 -5.9440383957
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2009-01-01 -10.9804329202
2009-02-01 -6.6793732859
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2009-04-01 -6.2258637195
2009-05-01 -4.4675894543
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2009-12-01 -0.8932728928
2010-01-01 0.1274756130
2010-02-01 -0.6058819904
2010-03-01 1.9766047242
2010-04-01 1.7234246999
2010-05-01 1.1245820881
2010-06-01 0.0531491321
2010-07-01 -0.1324409776
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2010-09-01 -0.5835924569
2010-10-01 -0.6421765975
2010-11-01 0.0420729944
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2011-01-01 -0.0877144484
2011-02-01 -0.5204040529
2011-03-01 1.7417515096
2011-04-01 -1.3410414578
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2011-06-01 -0.4680407376
2011-07-01 -0.3566899072
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2011-10-01 0.0308143441
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2011-12-01 1.2389120741
2012-01-01 1.6104152341
2012-02-01 0.9903527566
2012-03-01 0.0069027797
2012-04-01 0.1150089221
2012-05-01 -0.3269617789
2012-06-01 -1.3599146417
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2013-09-01 0.5083759740
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2014-02-01 0.4952567516
2014-03-01 1.7765126881
2014-04-01 0.8672929887
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2014-07-01 1.5198342563
2014-08-01 0.2846819758
2014-09-01 0.9049771175
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2017-02-01 0.2588054526
2017-03-01 0.3000991730
2017-04-01 1.4168897766
2017-05-01 0.3570638080
2017-06-01 0.7004287382
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2017-08-01 0.2261241610
2017-09-01 1.3175579796
2017-10-01 2.4406684632
2017-11-01 1.6966581035
2017-12-01 1.0654955690
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2018-02-01 2.0919278903
2018-03-01 0.6930971249
2018-04-01 1.3336176834
2018-05-01 0.4354767020
2018-06-01 0.9112937352
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2018-08-01 1.0702822284
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2020-06-01 14.7329698610
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2020-08-01 5.5797133511
2020-09-01 4.3695463111
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2021-02-01 -3.2243646770
2021-03-01 7.4824134637
2021-04-01 3.4694775939
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2023-03-01 -1.9896377220
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2023-12-01 -1.1702790234
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2024-02-01 0.6415141134
2024-03-01 -0.9614829137
2024-04-01 -1.1969816267
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2025-04-01 -2.6875363930
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2026-01-01 -0.8692075923
2026-02-01 0.4330304971
2026-03-01 -0.2310909715
2026-04-01 0.0975523899
2026-05-01 -0.4375898866
2026-06-01 -0.8755310909
2026-07-01 0.1699272176
2026-08-01 -0.1249979582

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