Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle Component of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle Component of GDP
Series ID BBKMCY
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-07-01
Last Updated 2026-08-31 7:33 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The cycle component of GDP is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 6.0649083582
1960-02-01 -1.6575605524
1960-03-01 -5.2039443986
1960-04-01 -1.1950734310
1960-05-01 -2.8253912234
1960-06-01 -4.1370128498
1960-07-01 -2.6851095230
1960-08-01 -2.6358524772
1960-09-01 -3.2339827274
1960-10-01 -3.2521950771
1960-11-01 -6.8442071771
1960-12-01 -7.0760399108
1961-01-01 -1.9485674295
1961-02-01 -1.7260244978
1961-03-01 2.0214452561
1961-04-01 3.9978619957
1961-05-01 3.9864865192
1961-06-01 4.2149798228
1961-07-01 3.0776335591
1961-08-01 4.6993656562
1961-09-01 0.9178016079
1961-10-01 5.3812618317
1961-11-01 5.2551033110
1961-12-01 3.3574009428
1962-01-01 -1.2882580030
1962-02-01 5.5050230719
1962-03-01 2.1789670446
1962-04-01 0.9219353882
1962-05-01 -0.2410070683
1962-06-01 -1.3029948559
1962-07-01 1.4651620291
1962-08-01 -0.1426326412
1962-09-01 1.6778624151
1962-10-01 -0.8531301182
1962-11-01 0.6751821256
1962-12-01 -0.9541509725
1963-01-01 0.5881289244
1963-02-01 3.5809784930
1963-03-01 1.6706160652
1963-04-01 3.5182122581
1963-05-01 2.7126299969
1963-06-01 1.4800008231
1963-07-01 0.5792295698
1963-08-01 0.7107847064
1963-09-01 2.0360855986
1963-10-01 2.9365903548
1963-11-01 0.4205817577
1963-12-01 1.2310501258
1964-01-01 2.5876438779
1964-02-01 3.0314431577
1964-03-01 1.6386752466
1964-04-01 3.6946071541
1964-05-01 2.2797176358
1964-06-01 0.4145675892
1964-07-01 3.3921929542
1964-08-01 0.8143523213
1964-09-01 1.5772115828
1964-10-01 -2.8795952909
1964-11-01 6.6750602009
1964-12-01 4.7501765495
1965-01-01 2.7952991461
1965-02-01 2.4807502867
1965-03-01 5.4825693289
1965-04-01 2.0039519087
1965-05-01 2.5617686236
1965-06-01 2.2820272874
1965-07-01 4.5310051860
1965-08-01 1.6077390522
1965-09-01 2.0696970036
1965-10-01 4.5793711233
1965-11-01 4.1115036836
1965-12-01 4.7897565798
1966-01-01 3.6278065446
1966-02-01 4.0648738147
1966-03-01 4.7138040993
1966-04-01 -0.1620812860
1966-05-01 -0.5356520034
1966-06-01 1.1677901672
1966-07-01 0.6533501574
1966-08-01 0.9565950620
1966-09-01 1.5860988323
1966-10-01 0.6711929535
1966-11-01 -2.2516962616
1966-12-01 -0.9137780271
1967-01-01 -0.0327446393
1967-02-01 -3.3038328032
1967-03-01 -0.9288908792
1967-04-01 -0.2839780899
1967-05-01 -1.4949855364
1967-06-01 0.3978793493
1967-07-01 -1.1156241116
1967-08-01 4.1884232184
1967-09-01 0.0360995640
1967-10-01 0.1967331967
1967-11-01 6.0696918672
1967-12-01 4.4262247779
1968-01-01 -0.7388124887
1968-02-01 1.3978671159
1968-03-01 2.1441661253
1968-04-01 0.6744133125
1968-05-01 3.2636115027
1968-06-01 1.0234036566
1968-07-01 0.8780797892
1968-08-01 -1.4680199506
1968-09-01 1.9208806606
1968-10-01 2.0872388878
1968-11-01 2.4961492699
1968-12-01 -0.4557242981
1969-01-01 1.0555950834
1969-02-01 1.2095620973
1969-03-01 2.4420840792
1969-04-01 0.2180359922
1969-05-01 -1.3527274651
1969-06-01 0.3097629384
1969-07-01 0.1044885412
1969-08-01 0.3509139752
1969-09-01 -0.3663278496
1969-10-01 -0.5745110527
1969-11-01 -4.6827935942
1969-12-01 -2.1986093310
1970-01-01 -5.8886148627
1970-02-01 -2.0070311489
1970-03-01 -3.2661202383
1970-04-01 -3.1139509200
1970-05-01 -1.1781765978
1970-06-01 -1.0379883112
1970-07-01 0.0148178557
1970-08-01 -2.5709182634
1970-09-01 -3.2448934469
1970-10-01 -6.9144467087
1970-11-01 -4.3702330062
1970-12-01 6.8745606639
1971-01-01 2.3085169151
1971-02-01 0.7111040688
1971-03-01 0.3926563026
1971-04-01 1.2488156901
1971-05-01 1.5575975807
1971-06-01 1.9106013731
1971-07-01 -2.1603134487
1971-08-01 -0.6222550074
1971-09-01 3.2886413438
1971-10-01 0.6411444768
1971-11-01 2.3933016455
1971-12-01 3.9313479587
1972-01-01 5.4123163201
1972-02-01 2.6194375545
1972-03-01 3.5224855354
1972-04-01 2.9652983722
1972-05-01 1.4183772043
1972-06-01 1.5685102811
1972-07-01 -0.6677204190
1972-08-01 4.9760760305
1972-09-01 3.9608356922
1972-10-01 4.5382690823
1972-11-01 5.3922192799
1972-12-01 4.4420566564
1973-01-01 4.1892136996
1973-02-01 4.4835520674
1973-03-01 1.1225224860
1973-04-01 -0.9694813793
1973-05-01 0.5664353903
1973-06-01 -0.2552293194
1973-07-01 -0.5467173657
1973-08-01 -1.7769800733
1973-09-01 -0.6879576851
1973-10-01 2.8804979983
1973-11-01 1.3816456855
1973-12-01 -3.2024601443
1974-01-01 -2.6122914649
1974-02-01 -2.3788129285
1974-03-01 -1.4608327908
1974-04-01 -2.8990850224
1974-05-01 0.3038463070
1974-06-01 -2.5346374058
1974-07-01 -2.1089791383
1974-08-01 -4.1574416406
1974-09-01 -3.4389985364
1974-10-01 -4.5855123814
1974-11-01 -10.6894309689
1974-12-01 -14.7721968777
1975-01-01 -7.1075086892
1975-02-01 -8.7960299011
1975-03-01 -8.2472481079
1975-04-01 0.2846810199
1975-05-01 -1.0808170899
1975-06-01 1.4927123023
1975-07-01 4.2118176120
1975-08-01 3.0612666752
1975-09-01 3.5050136882
1975-10-01 1.2458826858
1975-11-01 0.0029849734
1975-12-01 4.0206154728
1976-01-01 5.3898930293
1976-02-01 3.3849123621
1976-03-01 1.3305091639
1976-04-01 1.0758084815
1976-05-01 1.3456556525
1976-06-01 0.8904719722
1976-07-01 1.1868702790
1976-08-01 0.5569892436
1976-09-01 0.6649807170
1976-10-01 -0.7530338794
1976-11-01 3.4914691150
1976-12-01 4.3687622062
1977-01-01 -1.5658288686
1977-02-01 5.5221713644
1977-03-01 4.9888129639
1977-04-01 2.9311123367
1977-05-01 2.4459175233
1977-06-01 2.9106245563
1977-07-01 0.9118368648
1977-08-01 1.3144582067
1977-09-01 0.6505736328
1977-10-01 0.5588487395
1977-11-01 1.1803487899
1977-12-01 1.6102222092
1978-01-01 -6.0040789268
1978-02-01 4.3135850541
1978-03-01 6.6326748447
1978-04-01 7.9028409633
1978-05-01 2.4155069708
1978-06-01 3.1298890628
1978-07-01 -0.5561215243
1978-08-01 2.3003581608
1978-09-01 0.7957304937
1978-10-01 2.3025881444
1978-11-01 2.1596421671
1978-12-01 0.6799256494
1979-01-01 -3.2909739337
1979-02-01 -0.5775726519
1979-03-01 3.0202689280
1979-04-01 -6.4669645388
1979-05-01 4.0281814999
1979-06-01 -1.1170586192
1979-07-01 -1.3336394866
1979-08-01 -3.0515646015
1979-09-01 -2.1310671307
1979-10-01 -0.0414792298
1979-11-01 -2.5423952586
1979-12-01 -1.8435166103
1980-01-01 -0.3975013803
1980-02-01 -3.1223298959
1980-03-01 -7.7801719832
1980-04-01 -11.2940449865
1980-05-01 -11.6474439721
1980-06-01 -6.4716617740
1980-07-01 -2.9726976245
1980-08-01 0.9355248753
1980-09-01 5.8929565266
1980-10-01 4.9611669482
1980-11-01 3.0543827250
1980-12-01 1.5798178274
1981-01-01 -0.9726077638
1981-02-01 -2.2665919523
1981-03-01 -1.2617370745
1981-04-01 -0.7529257851
1981-05-01 -1.3817063454
1981-06-01 -1.3310783321
1981-07-01 -0.1474947283
1981-08-01 -2.5672255257
1981-09-01 -4.2685457065
1981-10-01 -6.3700487214
1981-11-01 -6.5997461205
1981-12-01 -7.5493223076
1982-01-01 -8.6767001564
1982-02-01 4.4052431328
1982-03-01 -3.8601329041
1982-04-01 -4.6765214555
1982-05-01 -2.6102244343
1982-06-01 -2.9967458450
1982-07-01 -2.6629574194
1982-08-01 -4.8438736195
1982-09-01 -2.2798783281
1982-10-01 -4.5479067098
1982-11-01 -1.9976120700
1982-12-01 -1.3175951278
1983-01-01 5.9049409342
1983-02-01 -0.8007127838
1983-03-01 4.0189409572
1983-04-01 4.2916193015
1983-05-01 4.3581475068
1983-06-01 5.8642645910
1983-07-01 4.5353732184
1983-08-01 3.2786003715
1983-09-01 6.0813886973
1983-10-01 4.0331605615
1983-11-01 3.6508361461
1983-12-01 3.7993648886
1984-01-01 5.4999306643
1984-02-01 3.8761980831
1984-03-01 1.6750850702
1984-04-01 2.2346351518
1984-05-01 2.9157540234
1984-06-01 1.7140397864
1984-07-01 0.2642495044
1984-08-01 0.1629860167
1984-09-01 -1.7134819905
1984-10-01 1.1213706075
1984-11-01 1.6262531376
1984-12-01 -0.0300939037
1985-01-01 -0.7215517079
1985-02-01 0.0513753920
1985-03-01 1.8015619952
1985-04-01 -0.8134653465
1985-05-01 0.9969309884
1985-06-01 -2.0222855805
1985-07-01 -0.5659259843
1985-08-01 2.1002088925
1985-09-01 0.2098572867
1985-10-01 -0.6189336525
1985-11-01 1.2982342255
1985-12-01 0.5032381137
1986-01-01 2.9700837060
1986-02-01 -2.9540322928
1986-03-01 -2.9601393016
1986-04-01 1.2531798923
1986-05-01 -1.0393472740
1986-06-01 -0.8369905490
1986-07-01 0.8440725568
1986-08-01 -0.1775669242
1986-09-01 1.4584844480
1986-10-01 -1.2360075100
1986-11-01 -0.5076695547
1986-12-01 2.5199395036
1987-01-01 -2.9795842180
1987-02-01 4.6764965203
1987-03-01 -0.1552400776
1987-04-01 0.5663892906
1987-05-01 1.0697592514
1987-06-01 1.5589944795
1987-07-01 2.6094784523
1987-08-01 0.3102660607
1987-09-01 2.4418417617
1987-10-01 2.6735470673
1987-11-01 0.5721696949
1987-12-01 1.5720420344
1988-01-01 -1.1218256590
1988-02-01 1.8729441974
1988-03-01 1.8440630524
1988-04-01 1.1410055030
1988-05-01 -0.1261523676
1988-06-01 1.6247585103
1988-07-01 -0.4725980722
1988-08-01 0.2516568193
1988-09-01 0.5635601428
1988-10-01 1.1808219218
1988-11-01 1.1560612246
1988-12-01 2.6082367783
1989-01-01 0.8261725625
1989-02-01 -2.4413247420
1989-03-01 -0.3990715790
1989-04-01 0.6412124959
1989-05-01 -1.9066482246
1989-06-01 -1.4702811947
1989-07-01 -3.6976624308
1989-08-01 2.3648760871
1989-09-01 -1.9731923966
1989-10-01 -2.0293645706
1989-11-01 0.4059166692
1989-12-01 -0.3393474997
1990-01-01 -0.3072041605
1990-02-01 1.8147227898
1990-03-01 0.1929127426
1990-04-01 -3.7961681634
1990-05-01 -1.0207252106
1990-06-01 -1.0563829388
1990-07-01 -3.1154339034
1990-08-01 -1.3580509730
1990-09-01 -4.0069437938
1990-10-01 -4.1419529372
1990-11-01 -7.1374781881
1990-12-01 -4.8264526121
1991-01-01 -4.9807430449
1991-02-01 -4.3380674311
1991-03-01 -4.4080010184
1991-04-01 0.8154103447
1991-05-01 0.6802803216
1991-06-01 0.0393971833
1991-07-01 0.8313997126
1991-08-01 -0.8006117811
1991-09-01 0.6495517600
1991-10-01 -1.3336810741
1991-11-01 -1.7436723801
1991-12-01 -3.5677522039
1992-01-01 -0.6763033306
1992-02-01 0.8819225688
1992-03-01 2.7154854530
1992-04-01 1.7568005065
1992-05-01 -0.0348235924
1992-06-01 0.7731001529
1992-07-01 1.4267204245
1992-08-01 -2.7075185684
1992-09-01 0.7094273098
1992-10-01 1.0254447515
1992-11-01 0.1704311487
1992-12-01 1.0601518084
1993-01-01 0.4435720805
1993-02-01 0.0185066918
1993-03-01 -1.2526582578
1993-04-01 0.4343938721
1993-05-01 -0.3243803331
1993-06-01 -0.1059816438
1993-07-01 -0.5083911072
1993-08-01 -0.2593771198
1993-09-01 1.7670685376
1993-10-01 2.2512110671
1993-11-01 1.3983785535
1993-12-01 1.9424547577
1994-01-01 0.1062863525
1994-02-01 0.4661324082
1994-03-01 4.2763377348
1994-04-01 1.1550167137
1994-05-01 1.5872223251
1994-06-01 1.8388583930
1994-07-01 0.0036706066
1994-08-01 2.3970344648
1994-09-01 0.5687035121
1994-10-01 1.7016699535
1994-11-01 2.2355429181
1994-12-01 2.6522707540
1995-01-01 -0.2558237082
1995-02-01 -1.2618314445
1995-03-01 -1.0054817911
1995-04-01 -1.8857524307
1995-05-01 -0.1474466541
1995-06-01 0.4922148595
1995-07-01 -1.8986643901
1995-08-01 2.8708484629
1995-09-01 1.4794970270
1995-10-01 -1.0405952690
1995-11-01 0.2520625467
1995-12-01 0.8788251335
1996-01-01 -3.3701591240
1996-02-01 2.5423922170
1996-03-01 0.9025053133
1996-04-01 1.9019379988
1996-05-01 2.2562709299
1996-06-01 1.4952938239
1996-07-01 0.0625557944
1996-08-01 0.9554855055
1996-09-01 1.1162176974
1996-10-01 0.3014719210
1996-11-01 1.8724810931
1996-12-01 0.0371321958
1997-01-01 0.1697094607
1997-02-01 3.8836009977
1997-03-01 1.6992546828
1997-04-01 1.4547594387
1997-05-01 0.8675801528
1997-06-01 1.8668309271
1997-07-01 3.0097935539
1997-08-01 1.9239772897
1997-09-01 2.4087059196
1997-10-01 1.4966739218
1997-11-01 1.9820119352
1997-12-01 0.8195835870
1998-01-01 0.9167728883
1998-02-01 1.4877921415
1998-03-01 0.3134445301
1998-04-01 0.6439967832
1998-05-01 1.3179171687
1998-06-01 -1.0704448464
1998-07-01 -0.6440357552
1998-08-01 3.4845095167
1998-09-01 0.9053849271
1998-10-01 1.6482068594
1998-11-01 0.0309630434
1998-12-01 0.6307910699
1999-01-01 0.2724132948
1999-02-01 1.9107706095
1999-03-01 -0.0556501719
1999-04-01 0.5979362707
1999-05-01 1.5857002845
1999-06-01 0.3047189074
1999-07-01 1.4917132684
1999-08-01 1.4390228089
1999-09-01 0.3330224732
1999-10-01 3.0262404595
1999-11-01 1.5456121455
1999-12-01 1.9724123990
2000-01-01 0.9358372274
2000-02-01 -0.7969490617
2000-03-01 2.5539010152
2000-04-01 1.4726117501
2000-05-01 -0.4716701749
2000-06-01 1.0943555086
2000-07-01 -1.4931379458
2000-08-01 -0.9593567869
2000-09-01 1.2042420046
2000-10-01 -1.8686543811
2000-11-01 -1.6911451597
2000-12-01 -2.3142797661
2001-01-01 -2.3654908084
2001-02-01 -3.3325084033
2001-03-01 -3.2966729679
2001-04-01 -3.9837694666
2001-05-01 -2.1822735315
2001-06-01 -3.9016836311
2001-07-01 -3.5246723565
2001-08-01 -2.7703308437
2001-09-01 -4.7012548940
2001-10-01 -2.7649769463
2001-11-01 -3.6138834680
2001-12-01 -1.8324995183
2002-01-01 -0.2748488502
2002-02-01 -0.0649070912
2002-03-01 -0.2096901353
2002-04-01 1.2305288721
2002-05-01 0.1532976527
2002-06-01 -0.1413397230
2002-07-01 -1.6429756524
2002-08-01 -1.0332229489
2002-09-01 -2.1131440255
2002-10-01 -1.8334138306
2002-11-01 -0.1247394652
2002-12-01 -2.6729452240
2003-01-01 0.7062426091
2003-02-01 -1.3835427579
2003-03-01 -0.7949841072
2003-04-01 -2.4016750125
2003-05-01 0.1658807556
2003-06-01 1.1490229046
2003-07-01 1.3341695876
2003-08-01 0.2934409917
2003-09-01 2.5884516160
2003-10-01 1.5243612542
2003-11-01 1.7736798144
2003-12-01 0.8019711972
2004-01-01 0.3842073540
2004-02-01 1.5692943657
2004-03-01 2.3948666538
2004-04-01 0.5701752187
2004-05-01 1.6145473298
2004-06-01 0.4129842084
2004-07-01 1.5575821977
2004-08-01 1.0234797499
2004-09-01 0.9030937166
2004-10-01 1.9550579203
2004-11-01 1.2002318758
2004-12-01 2.5744864763
2005-01-01 1.6194167637
2005-02-01 1.2278464003
2005-03-01 -0.3782439950
2005-04-01 1.7675736022
2005-05-01 -0.2592846054
2005-06-01 0.4604100695
2005-07-01 -0.8870234911
2005-08-01 1.6494690930
2005-09-01 -0.1207959190
2005-10-01 1.7121644468
2005-11-01 2.5376254041
2005-12-01 1.4261691269
2006-01-01 1.6339081391
2006-02-01 0.3422359044
2006-03-01 1.0808942202
2006-04-01 -0.4254821612
2006-05-01 0.2622537096
2006-06-01 -0.5136163182
2006-07-01 -1.2242023617
2006-08-01 0.3842204486
2006-09-01 -0.9017146986
2006-10-01 -1.2596453044
2006-11-01 -0.2521650737
2006-12-01 2.0506015841
2007-01-01 -1.5010716678
2007-02-01 0.5102621378
2007-03-01 0.8557871040
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2007-12-01 -2.3753619368
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2008-02-01 -3.6854862800
2008-03-01 -3.5686583239
2008-04-01 -2.4884430277
2008-05-01 -3.2906099377
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2009-02-01 -6.6941814332
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2009-04-01 -6.2323605600
2009-05-01 -4.4740755265
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2009-12-01 -0.8896824923
2010-01-01 0.1284743056
2010-02-01 -0.6062603469
2010-03-01 1.9644464150
2010-04-01 1.7189893061
2010-05-01 1.1158782415
2010-06-01 0.0569668017
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2011-03-01 1.7350583356
2011-04-01 -1.3435433109
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2012-01-01 1.5981109037
2012-02-01 0.9805350214
2012-03-01 0.0098874106
2012-04-01 0.1139271346
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2014-02-01 0.4945812927
2014-03-01 1.7741213016
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2014-07-01 1.5188477221
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2017-09-01 1.3156775405
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2018-02-01 2.0762283347
2018-03-01 0.7100783989
2018-04-01 1.3387562519
2018-05-01 0.4243455617
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2021-02-01 -3.2437483503
2021-03-01 7.4057413336
2021-04-01 3.4501654490
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2024-02-01 0.5616437161
2024-03-01 -0.9241468758
2024-04-01 -1.2056377155
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2026-01-01 -1.1400023271
2026-02-01 0.2654833232
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2026-04-01 -0.0239547980
2026-05-01 -0.6662953221
2026-06-01 -0.9459189266
2026-07-01 0.3205671160

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