Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle Component of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle Component of GDP
Series ID BBKMCY
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-05-01
Last Updated 2026-06-29 7:32 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The cycle component of GDP is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 6.060551924021033000
1960-02-01 -1.682668594168783000
1960-03-01 -5.233891838538090000
1960-04-01 -1.241680560637422400
1960-05-01 -2.854239566199922300
1960-06-01 -4.159011222586709500
1960-07-01 -2.702040545618204000
1960-08-01 -2.655133610831560600
1960-09-01 -3.253338829016160000
1960-10-01 -3.262397408661422000
1960-11-01 -6.876578355247657000
1960-12-01 -7.098193850314058000
1961-01-01 -1.974442165577282400
1961-02-01 -1.743667514384184700
1961-03-01 2.000616532849304000
1961-04-01 3.983815129081369500
1961-05-01 3.970635107739705300
1961-06-01 4.199382965445123000
1961-07-01 3.072242259065926000
1961-08-01 4.691939705925064000
1961-09-01 0.902503677251784000
1961-10-01 5.355191471389137000
1961-11-01 5.234603083562770000
1961-12-01 3.335315429482591300
1962-01-01 -1.314328277383758000
1962-02-01 5.475328103525246000
1962-03-01 2.161711388931166300
1962-04-01 0.895384825509400700
1962-05-01 -0.270394150607560200
1962-06-01 -1.328562135978467400
1962-07-01 1.447823069651289000
1962-08-01 -0.168579589135065320
1962-09-01 1.657913640828205100
1962-10-01 -0.862320325557128100
1962-11-01 0.655309450508304400
1962-12-01 -0.974650530097720600
1963-01-01 0.568401855513763100
1963-02-01 3.570023034469647000
1963-03-01 1.655072157628415800
1963-04-01 3.498768672460674400
1963-05-01 2.694490502121555500
1963-06-01 1.464958634464598800
1963-07-01 0.558809835350967000
1963-08-01 0.686784677298834000
1963-09-01 2.017085597199007400
1963-10-01 2.915667234871075500
1963-11-01 0.401168578038293600
1963-12-01 1.216905091443048000
1964-01-01 2.570971082573867000
1964-02-01 3.010381580323219500
1964-03-01 1.614159191385383900
1964-04-01 3.668649072047611000
1964-05-01 2.256987005623741500
1964-06-01 0.404087214483245360
1964-07-01 3.376941338798541600
1964-08-01 0.795574860314876500
1964-09-01 1.561196237060090000
1964-10-01 -2.893344782611422000
1964-11-01 6.666513898958053000
1964-12-01 4.745652813215359000
1965-01-01 2.783162353951304000
1965-02-01 2.467211931829936600
1965-03-01 5.466576659624442000
1965-04-01 1.984598494091534200
1965-05-01 2.540756087739923000
1965-06-01 2.265497218064485500
1965-07-01 4.509167822249225000
1965-08-01 1.582262302354774200
1965-09-01 2.043119315195873800
1965-10-01 4.557510730499639000
1965-11-01 4.094003595372533000
1965-12-01 4.780797194741115000
1966-01-01 3.620895144957078300
1966-02-01 4.064971397038826000
1966-03-01 4.710198206484899000
1966-04-01 -0.169969147147934900
1966-05-01 -0.548582339066958900
1966-06-01 1.158428379624925300
1966-07-01 0.646283496336603300
1966-08-01 0.958049666584818200
1966-09-01 1.582231421979019400
1966-10-01 0.657658619711207800
1966-11-01 -2.269697573491939600
1966-12-01 -0.929699931058543600
1967-01-01 -0.050417586504799106
1967-02-01 -3.314961390967712000
1967-03-01 -0.938957280370835700
1967-04-01 -0.296735851546627200
1967-05-01 -1.498070374306803100
1967-06-01 0.397546886342975100
1967-07-01 -1.116310509048724400
1967-08-01 4.182973656720339000
1967-09-01 0.042891081860860550
1967-10-01 0.204261683896416470
1967-11-01 6.076962544889276000
1967-12-01 4.427149834099374500
1968-01-01 -0.739992139171825800
1968-02-01 1.389856421839545700
1968-03-01 2.141959632811002700
1968-04-01 0.666243522177088300
1968-05-01 3.255725653821939000
1968-06-01 1.020289530209487000
1968-07-01 0.878631298384302200
1968-08-01 -1.472780968616479700
1968-09-01 1.932385847457301000
1968-10-01 2.099968807934999000
1968-11-01 2.505460830345417000
1968-12-01 -0.454405120380856000
1969-01-01 1.058856869832451000
1969-02-01 1.207946032149460000
1969-03-01 2.445091495750166000
1969-04-01 0.225772165317611240
1969-05-01 -1.344377600760464000
1969-06-01 0.316702670234981330
1969-07-01 0.113116674699085320
1969-08-01 0.356297296409845700
1969-09-01 -0.351718629438148500
1969-10-01 -0.567328853939967500
1969-11-01 -4.675456142392379000
1969-12-01 -2.195852792197962700
1970-01-01 -5.879739649870894000
1970-02-01 -1.999421802876371700
1970-03-01 -3.260712731811725700
1970-04-01 -3.109538238282637800
1970-05-01 -1.160372149837480000
1970-06-01 -1.027549989862950300
1970-07-01 0.016352659934119940
1970-08-01 -2.571704771364243000
1970-09-01 -3.237037823513960000
1970-10-01 -6.908714539619751000
1970-11-01 -4.362574600081967000
1970-12-01 6.892336639861614000
1971-01-01 2.320139573329705700
1971-02-01 0.722095026672736300
1971-03-01 0.401038144693211000
1971-04-01 1.256248391861143300
1971-05-01 1.564966854703592900
1971-06-01 1.925894530179642200
1971-07-01 -2.148540916947893000
1971-08-01 -0.609529548287011600
1971-09-01 3.302286755223552600
1971-10-01 0.662271611106503700
1971-11-01 2.410675562081205000
1971-12-01 3.940516284532838800
1972-01-01 5.417738149668349000
1972-02-01 2.621918269817203700
1972-03-01 3.528072357050094300
1972-04-01 2.971853718814492200
1972-05-01 1.426975362252752800
1972-06-01 1.574449935770984700
1972-07-01 -0.657403863766766800
1972-08-01 4.982148813077963000
1972-09-01 3.968052691054559000
1972-10-01 4.544967681433214000
1972-11-01 5.403404044239030000
1972-12-01 4.455272896308214000
1973-01-01 4.197563616000289000
1973-02-01 4.488800028959398000
1973-03-01 1.134512158183027000
1973-04-01 -0.958718813545120300
1973-05-01 0.577306058083051800
1973-06-01 -0.249077623405927760
1973-07-01 -0.534826862512064000
1973-08-01 -1.758532260829865000
1973-09-01 -0.672314410937980400
1973-10-01 2.897400622963569400
1973-11-01 1.400010847394402200
1973-12-01 -3.184031540835694000
1974-01-01 -2.594916380401029300
1974-02-01 -2.363651090760772000
1974-03-01 -1.454654411904953800
1974-04-01 -2.890251611129724000
1974-05-01 0.308119179950536170
1974-06-01 -2.527540901810202000
1974-07-01 -2.096910106555388000
1974-08-01 -4.136388898123956000
1974-09-01 -3.424491858617837000
1974-10-01 -4.581070360729392000
1974-11-01 -10.692328917365186000
1974-12-01 -14.787284798506734000
1975-01-01 -7.111840325726751000
1975-02-01 -8.796009409686920000
1975-03-01 -8.253958436834639000
1975-04-01 0.285806630217839500
1975-05-01 -1.068482063176981400
1975-06-01 1.508123344400076800
1975-07-01 4.231068012494184000
1975-08-01 3.075678774416696500
1975-09-01 3.519089164919916500
1975-10-01 1.255410265680007000
1975-11-01 0.016826384944702870
1975-12-01 4.030657386800427000
1976-01-01 5.394613125997977000
1976-02-01 3.387319090628982300
1976-03-01 1.336715145721143700
1976-04-01 1.077241340745458600
1976-05-01 1.350903721032610500
1976-06-01 0.898434299879920300
1976-07-01 1.186534790912232100
1976-08-01 0.564378511361092700
1976-09-01 0.665313576002327900
1976-10-01 -0.754004139085503800
1976-11-01 3.493798505155153700
1976-12-01 4.378493678140177000
1977-01-01 -1.554280699588944400
1977-02-01 5.533268699537148000
1977-03-01 5.001113514381365000
1977-04-01 2.932608657072534300
1977-05-01 2.447625856287295200
1977-06-01 2.909121678071822000
1977-07-01 0.913417415694472300
1977-08-01 1.313708477463959100
1977-09-01 0.649701994092306200
1977-10-01 0.565946075069918500
1977-11-01 1.186590394464140500
1977-12-01 1.612391803650057300
1978-01-01 -6.008276476608185000
1978-02-01 4.311702202069830000
1978-03-01 6.623777641822738000
1978-04-01 7.896023744225220000
1978-05-01 2.412745827882280600
1978-06-01 3.126966609059584500
1978-07-01 -0.554424734598465400
1978-08-01 2.301399857791998700
1978-09-01 0.796332124199979700
1978-10-01 2.303502582983219000
1978-11-01 2.160992123795888500
1978-12-01 0.682254504127651500
1979-01-01 -3.293163122687009700
1979-02-01 -0.576565239438532200
1979-03-01 3.029940038775220200
1979-04-01 -6.456608495785349000
1979-05-01 4.034108525994512000
1979-06-01 -1.118709486049385600
1979-07-01 -1.341967102261276200
1979-08-01 -3.056387144959100700
1979-09-01 -2.134093973380871500
1979-10-01 -0.039868077706093574
1979-11-01 -2.535542080432838000
1979-12-01 -1.836794809700397000
1980-01-01 -0.386914245172798930
1980-02-01 -3.114472562294463600
1980-03-01 -7.777464161808046000
1980-04-01 -11.297724054392289000
1980-05-01 -11.654919149864321000
1980-06-01 -6.487653258713745000
1980-07-01 -2.988039106411737800
1980-08-01 0.932226208522250000
1980-09-01 5.897767678447344000
1980-10-01 4.971811070296605000
1980-11-01 3.057894453571652300
1980-12-01 1.579227256889548700
1981-01-01 -0.973874582739127700
1981-02-01 -2.272962864921267000
1981-03-01 -1.266753470168460600
1981-04-01 -0.750275165599902100
1981-05-01 -1.383883904947352600
1981-06-01 -1.326014656466187400
1981-07-01 -0.146084143677665650
1981-08-01 -2.565534359842315500
1981-09-01 -4.267982431717996000
1981-10-01 -6.379367790764641600
1981-11-01 -6.613944198745786000
1981-12-01 -7.556741354363510000
1982-01-01 -8.680221008265383000
1982-02-01 4.403106039725523000
1982-03-01 -3.857640908568971000
1982-04-01 -4.679597755219206500
1982-05-01 -2.602675710990043000
1982-06-01 -2.997193576197965600
1982-07-01 -2.668014811977059700
1982-08-01 -4.854269026384696000
1982-09-01 -2.294911037781480000
1982-10-01 -4.566417887697958000
1982-11-01 -2.007045019849181600
1982-12-01 -1.327779602540663400
1983-01-01 5.904665292312179000
1983-02-01 -0.800224972984443800
1983-03-01 4.013362837505190000
1983-04-01 4.277340192162957000
1983-05-01 4.356402624312492000
1983-06-01 5.863460853464305000
1983-07-01 4.525080937525928000
1983-08-01 3.267096851636874000
1983-09-01 6.068719023320425000
1983-10-01 4.028136116781160000
1983-11-01 3.645669036422397000
1983-12-01 3.791624711030920000
1984-01-01 5.487724655616507000
1984-02-01 3.860867171000702800
1984-03-01 1.652542044732847400
1984-04-01 2.213198724689109400
1984-05-01 2.895832267599741000
1984-06-01 1.703799158423253700
1984-07-01 0.247562145788114530
1984-08-01 0.144293044869227900
1984-09-01 -1.723314724746436900
1984-10-01 1.108692860498379700
1984-11-01 1.612486790130099900
1984-12-01 -0.044459441003163790
1985-01-01 -0.733660842285217200
1985-02-01 0.035360276726455140
1985-03-01 1.794217836717048000
1985-04-01 -0.823487828060420200
1985-05-01 0.982970488180549100
1985-06-01 -2.047223890408581300
1985-07-01 -0.582467660608257600
1985-08-01 2.088251613098678000
1985-09-01 0.196835048484157400
1985-10-01 -0.627379349871377300
1985-11-01 1.292223641831857000
1985-12-01 0.492619067206836240
1986-01-01 2.957725683968970000
1986-02-01 -2.969430902929526700
1986-03-01 -2.982718626631092600
1986-04-01 1.238592260570141800
1986-05-01 -1.050377978971913900
1986-06-01 -0.846615796332452300
1986-07-01 0.832614430908240700
1986-08-01 -0.184567854324807050
1986-09-01 1.453418715023599800
1986-10-01 -1.251208605689111000
1986-11-01 -0.518080331442914100
1986-12-01 2.517138974961380000
1987-01-01 -2.990451103756499600
1987-02-01 4.675032474072419000
1987-03-01 -0.165133716945263240
1987-04-01 0.555907422990344000
1987-05-01 1.056775572715401300
1987-06-01 1.550689244384353000
1987-07-01 2.602530648208728300
1987-08-01 0.300386272648785700
1987-09-01 2.436676869645629000
1987-10-01 2.659453430652392500
1987-11-01 0.563690217734171800
1987-12-01 1.558123605444355700
1988-01-01 -1.139559402915537000
1988-02-01 1.858797739810284800
1988-03-01 1.837457762247414600
1988-04-01 1.130748630271026100
1988-05-01 -0.134538918731901630
1988-06-01 1.614700639674465900
1988-07-01 -0.481548787698322000
1988-08-01 0.235506362121884970
1988-09-01 0.559129166893259500
1988-10-01 1.172384186335073200
1988-11-01 1.144319432827683100
1988-12-01 2.600682347771549000
1989-01-01 0.815954261789964900
1989-02-01 -2.450844732542986300
1989-03-01 -0.404456419998214630
1989-04-01 0.639571966895115600
1989-05-01 -1.915413662612984000
1989-06-01 -1.490656453538753600
1989-07-01 -3.716702246555880300
1989-08-01 2.352512760972597300
1989-09-01 -1.988301471177371200
1989-10-01 -2.040694860226681000
1989-11-01 0.398111031471716560
1989-12-01 -0.347946628211601660
1990-01-01 -0.309132492628439340
1990-02-01 1.817112842908523300
1990-03-01 0.184809449728214670
1990-04-01 -3.807291542894128000
1990-05-01 -1.033566559174076800
1990-06-01 -1.055871915511198000
1990-07-01 -3.114711655193440600
1990-08-01 -1.351267534385801800
1990-09-01 -4.002993555600318000
1990-10-01 -4.139288924950353000
1990-11-01 -7.143478905157703000
1990-12-01 -4.832299899609273000
1991-01-01 -4.995564824173470000
1991-02-01 -4.357194340460627000
1991-03-01 -4.427560144929250000
1991-04-01 0.807905947129552800
1991-05-01 0.677573586458355600
1991-06-01 0.036169637187179580
1991-07-01 0.835896963737461400
1991-08-01 -0.794749857795404600
1991-09-01 0.649449418579224000
1991-10-01 -1.333320348883770800
1991-11-01 -1.746966644042699400
1991-12-01 -3.582154290089839300
1992-01-01 -0.684286278333284000
1992-02-01 0.877377226343787800
1992-03-01 2.707459557246823000
1992-04-01 1.753082130054214500
1992-05-01 -0.037460537881477685
1992-06-01 0.773412043924252300
1992-07-01 1.422551558172055400
1992-08-01 -2.713101060956536700
1992-09-01 0.708436739345065600
1992-10-01 1.019428372082033200
1992-11-01 0.164732108526360830
1992-12-01 1.055847755926045000
1993-01-01 0.452279503489792840
1993-02-01 0.023941692122879110
1993-03-01 -1.259283419336294300
1993-04-01 0.438663685331410200
1993-05-01 -0.324004308515509270
1993-06-01 -0.115886806453804820
1993-07-01 -0.510838123240413600
1993-08-01 -0.268322640975263370
1993-09-01 1.763960740717705400
1993-10-01 2.242648191105673500
1993-11-01 1.389700632750802400
1993-12-01 1.936628310759188400
1994-01-01 0.099827956916264060
1994-02-01 0.468217253495218600
1994-03-01 4.284466854761590500
1994-04-01 1.156318876236801500
1994-05-01 1.588815591271536000
1994-06-01 1.835987159191520700
1994-07-01 0.004892935392656561
1994-08-01 2.402041882422502000
1994-09-01 0.567967609333707200
1994-10-01 1.700511007445501700
1994-11-01 2.241522817268489000
1994-12-01 2.658466329809505700
1995-01-01 -0.256569752158496100
1995-02-01 -1.266179200519338200
1995-03-01 -1.009742268264143000
1995-04-01 -1.891357175138796800
1995-05-01 -0.151019764279270100
1995-06-01 0.485198788872795400
1995-07-01 -1.909751813286808500
1995-08-01 2.868218041724574000
1995-09-01 1.478837567246005500
1995-10-01 -1.045587149786373100
1995-11-01 0.250450915755533200
1995-12-01 0.879089741645470700
1996-01-01 -3.376359007249176000
1996-02-01 2.531952203606198500
1996-03-01 0.898815107484164800
1996-04-01 1.897546884940571900
1996-05-01 2.253720234680314700
1996-06-01 1.491442504091631300
1996-07-01 0.055549486660084080
1996-08-01 0.953347788768425600
1996-09-01 1.119865445394172000
1996-10-01 0.295663956665930260
1996-11-01 1.869277693490903000
1996-12-01 0.032047778591542120
1997-01-01 0.172097641494805640
1997-02-01 3.884605024458852000
1997-03-01 1.699876602638837700
1997-04-01 1.438970351632151300
1997-05-01 0.858374019885189900
1997-06-01 1.859841282972779500
1997-07-01 2.996859779331714000
1997-08-01 1.919719801400479000
1997-09-01 2.405570511188509700
1997-10-01 1.488479960880969300
1997-11-01 1.980179016858570700
1997-12-01 0.812066563827775500
1998-01-01 0.907924148143781500
1998-02-01 1.469303182365087500
1998-03-01 0.300709637845075300
1998-04-01 0.628846143152640500
1998-05-01 1.307716575109850500
1998-06-01 -1.085481210550341500
1998-07-01 -0.659519934323074800
1998-08-01 3.474997453006017000
1998-09-01 0.902717893567153800
1998-10-01 1.634130965772692000
1998-11-01 0.021449406072205246
1998-12-01 0.620511297618067900
1999-01-01 0.265434303454826800
1999-02-01 1.905748691595505800
1999-03-01 -0.072970547668710670
1999-04-01 0.600809196044236800
1999-05-01 1.583455538286352000
1999-06-01 0.297840615037478600
1999-07-01 1.480282506151279400
1999-08-01 1.434196124681648800
1999-09-01 0.327447837035147900
1999-10-01 3.015758822138693500
1999-11-01 1.534844682390837000
1999-12-01 1.956451817873435800
2000-01-01 0.927473471707500400
2000-02-01 -0.800833906303973000
2000-03-01 2.546401751732661400
2000-04-01 1.472565449272132300
2000-05-01 -0.483151203060265160
2000-06-01 1.088624370115183200
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2000-08-01 -0.964514715024604000
2000-09-01 1.196245227397391600
2000-10-01 -1.879773195457322500
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2001-01-01 -2.367921092635066000
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2003-09-01 2.594101449215702600
2003-10-01 1.525042503180016000
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2003-12-01 0.809332768934421700
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2004-02-01 1.581823413911139300
2004-03-01 2.400945346169706000
2004-04-01 0.576009006034979800
2004-05-01 1.622813256366654900
2004-06-01 0.419007088241762250
2004-07-01 1.561577272195732000
2004-08-01 1.033927645414561600
2004-09-01 0.909321844231777100
2004-10-01 1.961506199634758500
2004-11-01 1.205214236791375600
2004-12-01 2.587870512336050600
2005-01-01 1.623498055640363500
2005-02-01 1.231916000943375000
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2005-04-01 1.779344507743422000
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2006-01-01 1.633119042860287500
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2006-03-01 1.084604602233052900
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2010-01-01 0.140345381517160030
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2010-03-01 1.976071756086171600
2010-04-01 1.735627964275782000
2010-05-01 1.133675945562897500
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2011-02-01 -0.486216532006206600
2011-03-01 1.759212847914916500
2011-04-01 -1.318687636720123000
2011-05-01 -1.086569424050192000
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2011-12-01 1.255233548215498200
2012-01-01 1.608198472440620400
2012-02-01 0.994855351267700500
2012-03-01 0.032545355400582980
2012-04-01 0.136966293407038420
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2013-02-01 1.266370004981797900
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2013-04-01 -0.887080680465540200
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2017-04-01 1.424660978690167200
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2018-02-01 2.090828868152861000
2018-03-01 0.730637528704269200
2018-04-01 1.358148189853933800
2018-05-01 0.444008658537927040
2018-06-01 0.929200486428290100
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