Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle Component of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle Component of GDP
Series ID BBKMCY
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-06-01
Last Updated 2026-08-03 7:32 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The cycle component of GDP is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 6.0630688790018480000
1960-02-01 -1.6643346523471219000
1960-03-01 -5.2137603014365490000
1960-04-01 -1.1897763262462230000
1960-05-01 -2.8317426481211990000
1960-06-01 -4.1358650772013240000
1960-07-01 -2.6843278995778057000
1960-08-01 -2.6354936939631752000
1960-09-01 -3.2310769434003330000
1960-10-01 -3.2442811628279653000
1960-11-01 -6.8424668938560410000
1960-12-01 -7.0794746441778250000
1961-01-01 -1.9463076469977660000
1961-02-01 -1.7256206592419510000
1961-03-01 2.0242898451897933000
1961-04-01 3.9929819384533105000
1961-05-01 3.9857762151191040000
1961-06-01 4.2171780745584650000
1961-07-01 3.0780102941063400000
1961-08-01 4.7006808147158700000
1961-09-01 0.9149600591821716000
1961-10-01 5.3789644927415186000
1961-11-01 5.2510762635712345000
1961-12-01 3.3520372668030594000
1962-01-01 -1.2976045887145650000
1962-02-01 5.5036324750966910000
1962-03-01 2.1772309642730225000
1962-04-01 0.9186341541860182000
1962-05-01 -0.2423668056755937700
1962-06-01 -1.3084149721920935000
1962-07-01 1.4653068126648854000
1962-08-01 -0.1400169011750702000
1962-09-01 1.6800601343544386000
1962-10-01 -0.8541262650329627000
1962-11-01 0.6773745934252977000
1962-12-01 -0.9563121814863594000
1963-01-01 0.5882712664071647000
1963-02-01 3.5810805383342093000
1963-03-01 1.6711011424473763000
1963-04-01 3.5211002663752136000
1963-05-01 2.7086274597941307000
1963-06-01 1.4760692279882090000
1963-07-01 0.5798616017415664000
1963-08-01 0.7072065831909090000
1963-09-01 2.0339119046975790000
1963-10-01 2.9355809061971440000
1963-11-01 0.4181026300419677000
1963-12-01 1.2284858319804130000
1964-01-01 2.5857114365807750000
1964-02-01 3.0326938355471900000
1964-03-01 1.6332754348473140000
1964-04-01 3.6868105604246617000
1964-05-01 2.2759432118351530000
1964-06-01 0.4121559343632405500
1964-07-01 3.3916677214689095000
1964-08-01 0.8112800984166759000
1964-09-01 1.5748070107401760000
1964-10-01 -2.8762079700331586000
1964-11-01 6.6746894804602110000
1964-12-01 4.7503801000644720000
1965-01-01 2.7929635636555760000
1965-02-01 2.4770546118779830000
1965-03-01 5.4783140839728880000
1965-04-01 1.9997143734574405000
1965-05-01 2.5553653327608075000
1965-06-01 2.2744872961315052000
1965-07-01 4.5270912762482950000
1965-08-01 1.5981942954259756000
1965-09-01 2.0605561788702325000
1965-10-01 4.5713434760404180000
1965-11-01 4.1062106416091120000
1965-12-01 4.7871523137891070000
1966-01-01 3.6235816274448280000
1966-02-01 4.0644161381699280000
1966-03-01 4.7182892423274520000
1966-04-01 -0.1654135211884872600
1966-05-01 -0.5418975894510505000
1966-06-01 1.1647994281927057000
1966-07-01 0.6559072405434551000
1966-08-01 0.9600141203181278000
1966-09-01 1.5841154727667035000
1966-10-01 0.6646726613209981000
1966-11-01 -2.2568851305762730000
1966-12-01 -0.9195932412327470000
1967-01-01 -0.0351718399381226700
1967-02-01 -3.3087726145195260000
1967-03-01 -0.9288285503908160000
1967-04-01 -0.2827480529402018000
1967-05-01 -1.4946445335370557000
1967-06-01 0.4062150599913408000
1967-07-01 -1.1195996937284403000
1967-08-01 4.1844974162795110000
1967-09-01 0.0420398288125446440
1967-10-01 0.1980569913370057700
1967-11-01 6.0727391577042880000
1967-12-01 4.4219666508818050000
1968-01-01 -0.7526936404303273000
1968-02-01 1.3994620849426773000
1968-03-01 2.1452945729049104000
1968-04-01 0.6634230826046783000
1968-05-01 3.2564275990855207000
1968-06-01 1.0218938132851711000
1968-07-01 0.8802562483365476000
1968-08-01 -1.4698676335662290000
1968-09-01 1.9237312572399519000
1968-10-01 2.0895796007870513000
1968-11-01 2.4991216840861730000
1968-12-01 -0.4563262106568234000
1969-01-01 1.0587247189595810000
1969-02-01 1.2050226488615152000
1969-03-01 2.4374441953272340000
1969-04-01 0.2184475815199529200
1969-05-01 -1.3503790885450170000
1969-06-01 0.3091310706305501000
1969-07-01 0.1056960803059970900
1969-08-01 0.3524427354175137000
1969-09-01 -0.3636027077709038700
1969-10-01 -0.5712290496307733000
1969-11-01 -4.6811127605046130000
1969-12-01 -2.1954960186317410000
1970-01-01 -5.8860946623904440000
1970-02-01 -2.0053291421011985000
1970-03-01 -3.2660184125745477000
1970-04-01 -3.1123104379860340000
1970-05-01 -1.1741054179577390000
1970-06-01 -1.0398242430148699000
1970-07-01 0.0149058363710326000
1970-08-01 -2.5743938926470467000
1970-09-01 -3.2418823247476390000
1970-10-01 -6.9073323308960640000
1970-11-01 -4.3703464640277770000
1970-12-01 6.8794184941304220000
1971-01-01 2.3054396070730605000
1971-02-01 0.7063381946958388000
1971-03-01 0.3911026645370103000
1971-04-01 1.2509027660467231000
1971-05-01 1.5548331235186241000
1971-06-01 1.9136184539770873000
1971-07-01 -2.1588842106189350000
1971-08-01 -0.6204412450899371000
1971-09-01 3.2933372281465547000
1971-10-01 0.6488237233673755000
1971-11-01 2.3998690461916580000
1971-12-01 3.9265129485767460000
1972-01-01 5.4061458420488200000
1972-02-01 2.6128663661658880000
1972-03-01 3.5227055320144770000
1972-04-01 2.9582536428844817000
1972-05-01 1.4143789873121082000
1972-06-01 1.5702086639063029000
1972-07-01 -0.6669730328218579000
1972-08-01 4.9742019706463740000
1972-09-01 3.9571327585125960000
1972-10-01 4.5361427295920380000
1972-11-01 5.3869077698635160000
1972-12-01 4.4409556163314640000
1973-01-01 4.1824954289817270000
1973-02-01 4.4836621027333890000
1973-03-01 1.1237503637405044000
1973-04-01 -0.9734458905187655000
1973-05-01 0.5694188401322404000
1973-06-01 -0.2522151092357119000
1973-07-01 -0.5429773095881940000
1973-08-01 -1.7706030218861224000
1973-09-01 -0.6836272386563205000
1973-10-01 2.8847637352197020000
1973-11-01 1.3871360785005580000
1973-12-01 -3.1999576721699390000
1974-01-01 -2.6019988385658435000
1974-02-01 -2.3699636212596054000
1974-03-01 -1.4587927640964380000
1974-04-01 -2.8951571020394990000
1974-05-01 0.3029509684217026600
1974-06-01 -2.5383801195203297000
1974-07-01 -2.1012906907490980000
1974-08-01 -4.1481585664960900000
1974-09-01 -3.4369550097839205000
1974-10-01 -4.5907697197318100000
1974-11-01 -10.6910393627022840000
1974-12-01 -14.7792323972786670000
1975-01-01 -7.1005515229427110000
1975-02-01 -8.7950909106534900000
1975-03-01 -8.2513936277403490000
1975-04-01 0.2868775900673670000
1975-05-01 -1.0719013375254893000
1975-06-01 1.4934076753542684000
1975-07-01 4.2137056026433575000
1975-08-01 3.0597055497278003000
1975-09-01 3.5067378374897964000
1975-10-01 1.2470222427211880000
1975-11-01 0.0075363757500247625
1975-12-01 4.0226102344789390000
1976-01-01 5.3887215563933340000
1976-02-01 3.3802223097598962000
1976-03-01 1.3289436401697452000
1976-04-01 1.0757641147202480000
1976-05-01 1.3418847459595806000
1976-06-01 0.8942761009175817000
1976-07-01 1.1857755305238806000
1976-08-01 0.5566030936892511000
1976-09-01 0.6673948263355098000
1976-10-01 -0.7517881749642106000
1976-11-01 3.4913471965276646000
1976-12-01 4.3754672947713930000
1977-01-01 -1.5713576700677607000
1977-02-01 5.5311642449579750000
1977-03-01 4.9902779306160950000
1977-04-01 2.9274701394208993000
1977-05-01 2.4442749255460536000
1977-06-01 2.9053014765139697000
1977-07-01 0.9098077270511404000
1977-08-01 1.3120309850842530000
1977-09-01 0.6482581907579262000
1977-10-01 0.5652054295387896000
1977-11-01 1.1849834330514684000
1977-12-01 1.6101042174842670000
1978-01-01 -6.0132036630657850000
1978-02-01 4.3133275478062990000
1978-03-01 6.6248756992140520000
1978-04-01 7.8950259737565480000
1978-05-01 2.4084791248980997000
1978-06-01 3.1280522388486810000
1978-07-01 -0.5585830202443745000
1978-08-01 2.2994057934405943000
1978-09-01 0.7944239305085907000
1978-10-01 2.3032729338194580000
1978-11-01 2.1617968456605390000
1978-12-01 0.6835741294410682000
1979-01-01 -3.2963863245448883000
1979-02-01 -0.5731720945610501000
1979-03-01 3.0305076056422990000
1979-04-01 -6.4661282327257990000
1979-05-01 4.0341448043199760000
1979-06-01 -1.1152596975117004000
1979-07-01 -1.3373258904999012000
1979-08-01 -3.0450245133837130000
1979-09-01 -2.1262113107427090000
1979-10-01 -0.0417309005761052900
1979-11-01 -2.5394589269921130000
1979-12-01 -1.8383374577610070000
1980-01-01 -0.3881370723686996500
1980-02-01 -3.1204111922249647000
1980-03-01 -7.7784493688899850000
1980-04-01 -11.2913150104439190000
1980-05-01 -11.6410506546934250000
1980-06-01 -6.4668505925390250000
1980-07-01 -2.9712252052204593000
1980-08-01 0.9361238332236621000
1980-09-01 5.8931960597338590000
1980-10-01 4.9621245886558700000
1980-11-01 3.0538182671924390000
1980-12-01 1.5780992282816815000
1981-01-01 -0.9709193021160436000
1981-02-01 -2.2692540887696360000
1981-03-01 -1.2609230654343140000
1981-04-01 -0.7462610890726409000
1981-05-01 -1.3811266186137985000
1981-06-01 -1.3318112940171007000
1981-07-01 -0.1443546714007844500
1981-08-01 -2.5659753201326490000
1981-09-01 -4.2659262175201080000
1981-10-01 -6.3680895968511190000
1981-11-01 -6.5973514374305650000
1981-12-01 -7.5437232545583710000
1982-01-01 -8.6812312433851580000
1982-02-01 4.4233652659546200000
1982-03-01 -3.8587542765238100000
1982-04-01 -4.6781265803292290000
1982-05-01 -2.5998900521582926000
1982-06-01 -2.9958045057352550000
1982-07-01 -2.6581775775326950000
1982-08-01 -4.8430145985781740000
1982-09-01 -2.2772563512270290000
1982-10-01 -4.5483762327532560000
1982-11-01 -1.9918800763842757000
1982-12-01 -1.3186879933358344000
1983-01-01 5.9107013362511270000
1983-02-01 -0.8066228948124301000
1983-03-01 4.0205382015895530000
1983-04-01 4.2878603909331960000
1983-05-01 4.3633839042248965000
1983-06-01 5.8675706474639320000
1983-07-01 4.5316134265557070000
1983-08-01 3.2736862239461600000
1983-09-01 6.0791112709979330000
1983-10-01 4.0339895404930965000
1983-11-01 3.6499621922671257000
1983-12-01 3.7969708543831664000
1984-01-01 5.4987812552478730000
1984-02-01 3.8734830543791600000
1984-03-01 1.6647179210117920000
1984-04-01 2.2319913430756477000
1984-05-01 2.9111180165356010000
1984-06-01 1.7178456727930420000
1984-07-01 0.2577622167355951000
1984-08-01 0.1567884859013966000
1984-09-01 -1.7094059380922209000
1984-10-01 1.1195992939653396000
1984-11-01 1.6262796942951256000
1984-12-01 -0.0281300583449948240
1985-01-01 -0.7229837724276686000
1985-02-01 0.0503744118195177400
1985-03-01 1.8052851975919820000
1985-04-01 -0.8151962916721401000
1985-05-01 0.9969783750039765000
1985-06-01 -2.0294484089052442000
1985-07-01 -0.5677098908479485000
1985-08-01 2.1010394523450920000
1985-09-01 0.2111077270752217400
1985-10-01 -0.6207093690960160000
1985-11-01 1.2994230262511160000
1985-12-01 0.5033223171806518000
1986-01-01 2.9729520858057710000
1986-02-01 -2.9569409092936080000
1986-03-01 -2.9632452104867220000
1986-04-01 1.2546874917608435000
1986-05-01 -1.0363903187751067000
1986-06-01 -0.8363507857354293000
1986-07-01 0.8430913531552060000
1986-08-01 -0.1763400157795609300
1986-09-01 1.4674943389664268000
1986-10-01 -1.2377403631739268000
1986-11-01 -0.5043875583533581000
1986-12-01 2.5311892497357023000
1987-01-01 -2.9890004082211040000
1987-02-01 4.6880196344031200000
1987-03-01 -0.1559951951907804200
1987-04-01 0.5685611682307949000
1987-05-01 1.0689270622432285000
1987-06-01 1.5578635572159998000
1987-07-01 2.6121191372659640000
1987-08-01 0.3149085879247392000
1987-09-01 2.4410451629768360000
1987-10-01 2.6700661848806530000
1987-11-01 0.5746193829032663000
1987-12-01 1.5679529949320246000
1988-01-01 -1.1259077336108510000
1988-02-01 1.8761777364313592000
1988-03-01 1.8465468190248455000
1988-04-01 1.1404870135713512000
1988-05-01 -0.1247297954777402700
1988-06-01 1.6235493654400446000
1988-07-01 -0.4699993329853226000
1988-08-01 0.2475227110321740500
1988-09-01 0.5645718360667894000
1988-10-01 1.1848588287485577000
1988-11-01 1.1560075423392666000
1988-12-01 2.6105805598079757000
1989-01-01 0.8247853796882029000
1989-02-01 -2.4478709258337770000
1989-03-01 -0.4008960139867407000
1989-04-01 0.6495856472744673000
1989-05-01 -1.9086112366769980000
1989-06-01 -1.4729908140969640000
1989-07-01 -3.6993112499832430000
1989-08-01 2.3678304517063538000
1989-09-01 -1.9770339131302501000
1989-10-01 -2.0293481789573335000
1989-11-01 0.4065735278533463000
1989-12-01 -0.3416474491603129000
1990-01-01 -0.2959563531826160000
1990-02-01 1.8174579083882714000
1990-03-01 0.1916519775557448000
1990-04-01 -3.8003654758178307000
1990-05-01 -1.0221296779937632000
1990-06-01 -1.0499569978586245000
1990-07-01 -3.1119740842034070000
1990-08-01 -1.3458095303394373000
1990-09-01 -3.9997477643046770000
1990-10-01 -4.1345641798663800000
1990-11-01 -7.1314117642611340000
1990-12-01 -4.8253591694489730000
1991-01-01 -4.9892016735880640000
1991-02-01 -4.3341404087993345000
1991-03-01 -4.4095972566063610000
1991-04-01 0.8155852164076919000
1991-05-01 0.6828770044109537000
1991-06-01 0.0412009118143019660
1991-07-01 0.8357567385765965000
1991-08-01 -0.7981651167502788000
1991-09-01 0.6525125572294804000
1991-10-01 -1.3291734778013182000
1991-11-01 -1.7416843987064910000
1991-12-01 -3.5685159005460970000
1992-01-01 -0.6700334398860280000
1992-02-01 0.8811744128450023000
1992-03-01 2.7106709466372470000
1992-04-01 1.7549441358169324000
1992-05-01 -0.0344734442853191800
1992-06-01 0.7711635874509524000
1992-07-01 1.4298519696977061000
1992-08-01 -2.7055569958769956000
1992-09-01 0.7112503642939779000
1992-10-01 1.0275113900314010000
1992-11-01 0.1672666642276754000
1992-12-01 1.0626541259776452000
1993-01-01 0.4484292799413448500
1993-02-01 0.0206274898745130160
1993-03-01 -1.2585226730043200000
1993-04-01 0.4465953342643567000
1993-05-01 -0.3194505812974172700
1993-06-01 -0.1069555522661113100
1993-07-01 -0.5044803063373424000
1993-08-01 -0.2628014044770385000
1993-09-01 1.7689166105917948000
1993-10-01 2.2469615690656055000
1993-11-01 1.4016033789713362000
1993-12-01 1.9427165992192972000
1994-01-01 0.1008562752550291000
1994-02-01 0.4641974117028415700
1994-03-01 4.2885761210412290000
1994-04-01 1.1559818921421772000
1994-05-01 1.5855807619734956000
1994-06-01 1.8376654153813174000
1994-07-01 0.0060130249232777100
1994-08-01 2.4044860708502247000
1994-09-01 0.5694941911350382000
1994-10-01 1.7013161521070552000
1994-11-01 2.2367841373530700000
1994-12-01 2.6586400412595683000
1995-01-01 -0.2560016663268722700
1995-02-01 -1.2622940955799742000
1995-03-01 -1.0046274612733221000
1995-04-01 -1.8843565393385273000
1995-05-01 -0.1452139774080510300
1995-06-01 0.4934269716668586700
1995-07-01 -1.9007910479270660000
1995-08-01 2.8703718220376744000
1995-09-01 1.4830989938596410000
1995-10-01 -1.0447329069005677000
1995-11-01 0.2510828884285265500
1995-12-01 0.8844659488691776000
1996-01-01 -3.3752320238873960000
1996-02-01 2.5444815596646397000
1996-03-01 0.9078744100074958000
1996-04-01 1.8982332778425623000
1996-05-01 2.2562784311407387000
1996-06-01 1.4946352073188380000
1996-07-01 0.0616987759128712340
1996-08-01 0.9561777845173222000
1996-09-01 1.1224537202558127000
1996-10-01 0.2988534629031885000
1996-11-01 1.8758850518980583000
1996-12-01 0.0363034069852066200
1997-01-01 0.1694685831553482400
1997-02-01 3.8879571526617447000
1997-03-01 1.7031936540515080000
1997-04-01 1.4462355105851330000
1997-05-01 0.8657722381448678000
1997-06-01 1.8613225617930662000
1997-07-01 3.0073840094811380000
1997-08-01 1.9247267688544496000
1997-09-01 2.4122640115868963000
1997-10-01 1.4938920068362709000
1997-11-01 1.9793842150189260000
1997-12-01 0.8208995451392741000
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1998-02-01 1.4855177961062305000
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1998-04-01 0.6388376233728930000
1998-05-01 1.3183023855731832000
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1998-08-01 3.4799102125575425000
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1999-02-01 1.8985658979629794000
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