Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Irregular Component of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Irregular Component of GDP
Series ID BBKMIR
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-06-01
Last Updated 2026-10-05 7:33 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The irregular component of GDP is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 6.7939391740
1960-02-01 3.5086949540
1960-03-01 -2.5614346495
1960-04-01 -5.7158684942
1960-05-01 -3.0918481896
1960-06-01 2.3639160852
1960-07-01 5.0500907451
1960-08-01 2.0194017308
1960-09-01 -3.9264139877
1960-10-01 -7.1667684554
1960-11-01 -4.5694772717
1960-12-01 1.1709292196
1961-01-01 5.0882344776
1961-02-01 4.6368996416
1961-03-01 1.6761340559
1961-04-01 -0.5715249798
1961-05-01 -0.6332331118
1961-06-01 0.6515718785
1961-07-01 1.5690181430
1961-08-01 1.2724647236
1961-09-01 0.2736891880
1961-10-01 -0.1535863679
1961-11-01 0.7032223161
1961-12-01 2.1543096014
1962-01-01 2.5993103058
1962-02-01 1.1275897441
1962-03-01 -1.1760229521
1962-04-01 -2.1388507417
1962-05-01 -0.6127383570
1962-06-01 2.0017616091
1962-07-01 3.0400135451
1962-08-01 1.1385020837
1962-09-01 -2.0709943951
1962-10-01 -3.6449315909
1962-11-01 -2.1653543054
1962-12-01 0.6525196468
1963-01-01 1.8175027885
1963-02-01 -0.0227339373
1963-03-01 -3.0899804168
1963-04-01 -3.7813382435
1963-05-01 -0.1609180243
1963-06-01 5.3150104463
1963-07-01 7.6438418405
1963-08-01 4.0323559515
1963-09-01 -2.3652843047
1963-10-01 -5.6805966711
1963-11-01 -2.8732509128
1963-12-01 2.9568917184
1964-01-01 6.1783308550
1964-02-01 3.9745816290
1964-03-01 -0.9795827151
1964-04-01 -3.8030701977
1964-05-01 -2.0943746925
1964-06-01 1.8986491335
1964-07-01 3.7284593020
1964-08-01 1.0431364704
1964-09-01 -3.8894186784
1964-10-01 -6.2958183470
1964-11-01 -3.4614753254
1964-12-01 2.0519779624
1965-01-01 5.2862356141
1965-02-01 3.5902786530
1965-03-01 -0.7261728468
1965-04-01 -3.3064067012
1965-05-01 -1.8929056297
1965-06-01 1.7228727211
1965-07-01 4.2571400034
1965-08-01 4.1027692998
1965-09-01 2.4447055092
1965-10-01 1.4608265246
1965-11-01 2.1530168123
1965-12-01 3.7013314219
1966-01-01 3.8912895860
1966-02-01 1.2917589617
1966-03-01 -2.6901961419
1966-04-01 -5.0601603637
1966-05-01 -4.0798842498
1966-06-01 -1.3583079241
1966-07-01 0.5273411882
1966-08-01 0.5014966745
1966-09-01 -0.5091502163
1966-10-01 -0.7712762534
1966-11-01 0.5269074720
1966-12-01 2.5251008228
1967-01-01 3.1687703218
1967-02-01 1.2186507128
1967-03-01 -1.9258302898
1967-04-01 -3.5403833088
1967-05-01 -2.1792432380
1967-06-01 0.5959239710
1967-07-01 1.8628689814
1967-08-01 0.1261282746
1967-09-01 -3.0667265093
1967-10-01 -4.4770727934
1967-11-01 -2.2402382402
1967-12-01 1.8735576258
1968-01-01 4.6669112933
1968-02-01 4.5332622182
1968-03-01 2.8149908495
1968-04-01 1.3922974150
1968-05-01 0.8269011526
1968-06-01 0.6646803258
1968-07-01 -0.1312315784
1968-08-01 -2.0603514980
1968-09-01 -4.3414250580
1968-10-01 -4.7805678894
1968-11-01 -1.9179308327
1968-12-01 2.3829503828
1969-01-01 4.4520843365
1969-02-01 2.2748265393
1969-03-01 -1.9325330215
1969-04-01 -4.3324102667
1969-05-01 -3.0962466747
1969-06-01 -0.0757622975
1969-07-01 1.3768006181
1969-08-01 -0.3742076376
1969-09-01 -3.6815589958
1969-10-01 -5.3263882098
1969-11-01 -3.6223969900
1969-12-01 -0.3037638793
1970-01-01 1.6368861829
1970-02-01 0.8646417695
1970-03-01 -1.1092418532
1970-04-01 -1.5868138881
1970-05-01 0.6312909198
1970-06-01 3.8767191588
1970-07-01 4.5081562129
1970-08-01 0.4630978279
1970-09-01 -5.5596644546
1970-10-01 -7.8030014169
1970-11-01 -2.8954069846
1970-12-01 5.4300981861
1971-01-01 9.9742437378
1971-02-01 6.7962938332
1971-03-01 -0.4055435640
1971-04-01 -5.1440515417
1971-05-01 -4.2274948425
1971-06-01 -0.1388169612
1971-07-01 2.3924063558
1971-08-01 0.8803779156
1971-09-01 -3.0667181428
1971-10-01 -5.8198375954
1971-11-01 -5.1679106250
1971-12-01 -2.2938108111
1972-01-01 0.7646316080
1972-02-01 3.0626945910
1972-03-01 4.4859107490
1972-04-01 4.5108891462
1972-05-01 2.5833775031
1972-06-01 -0.0754181850
1972-07-01 -1.8859929755
1972-08-01 -2.2761455484
1972-09-01 -2.0074278192
1972-10-01 -1.4228406086
1972-11-01 -0.1178904246
1972-12-01 1.6903674799
1973-01-01 3.2306221214
1973-02-01 3.7805092680
1973-03-01 3.4416786698
1973-04-01 1.7867606366
1973-05-01 -1.6397788205
1973-06-01 -5.4780810367
1973-07-01 -6.8154855323
1973-08-01 -3.9293373102
1973-09-01 0.7282698584
1973-10-01 2.8350609928
1973-11-01 0.2396655863
1973-12-01 -4.5281911472
1974-01-01 -6.9175802808
1974-02-01 -4.6400921020
1974-03-01 -0.0835294655
1974-04-01 2.2553599630
1974-05-01 0.0204077558
1974-06-01 -4.5556630686
1974-07-01 -6.9292905918
1974-08-01 -4.5205176542
1974-09-01 0.5000231340
1974-10-01 4.1288301846
1974-11-01 4.2905700284
1974-12-01 2.3825882312
1975-01-01 0.8843997283
1975-02-01 0.9866354176
1975-03-01 2.2119750575
1975-04-01 3.2218441560
1975-05-01 3.1214971324
1975-06-01 2.1520633875
1975-07-01 0.9688367987
1975-08-01 0.0024781219
1975-09-01 -0.5529638452
1975-10-01 -0.2741128673
1975-11-01 1.1288613968
1975-12-01 2.8793929287
1976-01-01 3.4535911229
1976-02-01 1.9465088335
1976-03-01 -0.5577540507
1976-04-01 -2.3525887827
1976-05-01 -2.6538574132
1976-06-01 -2.1271920958
1976-07-01 -1.6252548003
1976-08-01 -1.3894063197
1976-09-01 -1.3624688401
1976-10-01 -1.3776625591
1976-11-01 -1.3462680801
1976-12-01 -1.2590024754
1977-01-01 -1.0464983076
1977-02-01 -0.6061549410
1977-03-01 -0.0135057466
1977-04-01 0.8570352322
1977-05-01 2.1885654503
1977-06-01 3.6988062791
1977-07-01 3.9671186851
1977-08-01 1.7005165629
1977-09-01 -2.0197208103
1977-10-01 -5.0650239932
1977-11-01 -6.1063315909
1977-12-01 -5.6377600851
1978-01-01 -3.3568374268
1978-02-01 1.4953977091
1978-03-01 7.1695132519
1978-04-01 9.7741148975
1978-05-01 6.8146006506
1978-06-01 1.1473117979
1978-07-01 -2.6412667054
1978-08-01 -2.4137031898
1978-09-01 0.0456542376
1978-10-01 1.7625975566
1978-11-01 1.3266224891
1978-12-01 -0.5317758042
1979-01-01 -2.3189395428
1979-02-01 -3.1786150674
1979-03-01 -3.1785449305
1979-04-01 -2.3295669464
1979-05-01 -0.5533605303
1979-06-01 1.3518828066
1979-07-01 2.0894064706
1979-08-01 1.0412778108
1979-09-01 -0.6700458286
1979-10-01 -1.3657640805
1979-11-01 -0.3778008105
1979-12-01 1.2655178410
1980-01-01 1.7498106892
1980-02-01 0.2023281094
1980-03-01 -2.1928077946
1980-04-01 -3.3903651622
1980-05-01 -2.4479553083
1980-06-01 -0.6159290972
1980-07-01 0.2326995478
1980-08-01 -0.5434777169
1980-09-01 -1.8231950420
1980-10-01 -1.2592806368
1980-11-01 2.4014712767
1980-12-01 7.2225575569
1981-01-01 8.5818700673
1981-02-01 3.5259568644
1981-03-01 -4.5806374056
1981-04-01 -8.9972648839
1981-05-01 -5.8282108516
1981-06-01 1.4220924688
1981-07-01 6.4114089525
1981-08-01 5.7909798364
1981-09-01 1.6940165266
1981-10-01 -2.5074536340
1981-11-01 -5.3378695175
1981-12-01 -6.7287407935
1982-01-01 -6.0770849625
1982-02-01 -2.7079903386
1982-03-01 1.5265793284
1982-04-01 3.6408091967
1982-05-01 2.1653235662
1982-06-01 -0.9399850127
1982-07-01 -2.7755222464
1982-08-01 -2.1388150394
1982-09-01 -0.2543386984
1982-10-01 1.0144606774
1982-11-01 0.9164628653
1982-12-01 0.1019606818
1983-01-01 -0.1756350216
1983-02-01 0.7242851255
1983-03-01 2.2253102156
1983-04-01 2.9778974403
1983-05-01 2.1497896563
1983-06-01 0.4895306305
1983-07-01 -0.5814530833
1983-08-01 -0.3105762149
1983-09-01 0.7086153224
1983-10-01 1.3990716720
1983-11-01 1.2271482991
1983-12-01 0.5425933223
1984-01-01 0.1406339182
1984-02-01 0.4993205372
1984-03-01 1.3288689385
1984-04-01 1.8686689207
1984-05-01 1.5970651195
1984-06-01 0.7814307563
1984-07-01 -0.0341488643
1984-08-01 -0.5217066989
1984-09-01 -0.6608924445
1984-10-01 -0.3942976179
1984-11-01 0.3068221987
1984-12-01 1.0322028476
1985-01-01 1.1429864055
1985-02-01 0.3829044655
1985-03-01 -0.6185043667
1985-04-01 -0.6148919061
1985-05-01 1.0789483834
1985-06-01 3.4659097952
1985-07-01 4.4846090711
1985-08-01 2.9244607839
1985-09-01 0.1021576308
1985-10-01 -1.6978889827
1985-11-01 -1.3428894482
1985-12-01 0.1655333865
1986-01-01 1.1399304838
1986-02-01 0.7984580420
1986-03-01 -0.3020259361
1986-04-01 -0.9714223660
1986-05-01 -0.5237450253
1986-06-01 0.5991173813
1986-07-01 1.3042986518
1986-08-01 0.8718766275
1986-09-01 -0.3043285990
1986-10-01 -1.3448136531
1986-11-01 -1.6852234482
1986-12-01 -1.4249442758
1987-01-01 -0.7545463608
1987-02-01 0.1971630836
1987-03-01 0.9992654133
1987-04-01 0.8871125867
1987-05-01 -0.5027856751
1987-06-01 -2.2465184886
1987-07-01 -2.5703889785
1987-08-01 -0.5198673834
1987-09-01 2.5007109869
1987-10-01 3.7976926959
1987-11-01 1.9011200909
1987-12-01 -1.5050160340
1988-01-01 -3.3624720941
1988-02-01 -2.0906851570
1988-03-01 0.7872698701
1988-04-01 2.4947635169
1988-05-01 1.6050475118
1988-06-01 -0.7147650205
1988-07-01 -2.1710202127
1988-08-01 -1.5009343822
1988-09-01 0.4378799540
1988-10-01 1.9463364350
1988-11-01 2.0816647822
1988-12-01 1.2724890877
1989-01-01 0.3980033786
1989-02-01 -0.0436089708
1989-03-01 0.0049110066
1989-04-01 0.5308306724
1989-05-01 1.4717869048
1989-06-01 2.3602439193
1989-07-01 2.2599555730
1989-08-01 0.6244140466
1989-09-01 -1.5991005413
1989-10-01 -2.6302397020
1989-11-01 -1.4870278217
1989-12-01 0.6963773595
1990-01-01 2.0297526365
1990-02-01 1.6111936776
1990-03-01 0.2693795112
1990-04-01 -0.6893659405
1990-05-01 -0.7158874327
1990-06-01 -0.2223509259
1990-07-01 -0.1008481207
1990-08-01 -0.8605641304
1990-09-01 -2.1113276832
1990-10-01 -2.8098015229
1990-11-01 -2.2373041236
1990-12-01 -0.9161721549
1991-01-01 0.3413505037
1991-02-01 1.1886346759
1991-03-01 1.6977925891
1991-04-01 1.6565934776
1991-05-01 0.7250001532
1991-06-01 -0.6313135095
1991-07-01 -1.6452642522
1991-08-01 -1.8960249540
1991-09-01 -1.6492851300
1991-10-01 -0.8666127880
1991-11-01 0.7325662819
1991-12-01 2.6338011002
1992-01-01 3.5494315786
1992-02-01 2.5802880902
1992-03-01 0.6222298643
1992-04-01 -0.7842031573
1992-05-01 -0.8318630939
1992-06-01 -0.0038307559
1992-07-01 0.9622472656
1992-08-01 1.7240174057
1992-09-01 2.1147695040
1992-10-01 1.5795050402
1992-11-01 -0.3040715374
1992-12-01 -2.6430859140
1993-01-01 -3.7538818505
1993-02-01 -2.7085421205
1993-03-01 -0.6820536577
1993-04-01 0.4905639775
1993-05-01 0.0209814872
1993-06-01 -1.2324814235
1993-07-01 -1.7619050437
1993-08-01 -0.8447111061
1993-09-01 0.7700667989
1993-10-01 1.6402686675
1993-11-01 1.0124370810
1993-12-01 -0.3454065463
1994-01-01 -1.0339732037
1994-02-01 -0.3695788309
1994-03-01 0.9418293069
1994-04-01 1.4226482190
1994-05-01 0.2403698002
1994-06-01 -1.7593969605
1994-07-01 -2.8447668072
1994-08-01 -2.0339265715
1994-09-01 -0.2349577903
1994-10-01 0.8083360029
1994-11-01 0.1539087960
1994-12-01 -1.4491900930
1995-01-01 -2.5693212812
1995-02-01 -2.4383497402
1995-03-01 -1.5389848676
1995-04-01 -0.6276914571
1995-05-01 -0.0025607047
1995-06-01 0.3658089772
1995-07-01 0.4333353012
1995-08-01 0.0697017065
1995-09-01 -0.4992644327
1995-10-01 -0.9098271280
1995-11-01 -0.9333839346
1995-12-01 -0.6538423592
1996-01-01 0.0056334040
1996-02-01 1.1601542519
1996-03-01 2.3970347608
1996-04-01 2.7331538551
1996-05-01 1.5510050570
1996-06-01 -0.2611148050
1996-07-01 -1.1897294463
1996-08-01 -0.5202489839
1996-09-01 0.8564389042
1996-10-01 1.3001049388
1996-11-01 -0.0243721971
1996-12-01 -2.1730360557
1997-01-01 -3.0796756832
1997-02-01 -1.4888592694
1997-03-01 1.3990749862
1997-04-01 3.2660983543
1997-05-01 2.8186068405
1997-06-01 1.0279039065
1997-07-01 -0.6113475417
1997-08-01 -1.4776941204
1997-09-01 -1.7461876821
1997-10-01 -1.5829224411
1997-11-01 -0.9423899007
1997-12-01 -0.1811624638
1998-01-01 0.2616571357
1998-02-01 0.2189272294
1998-03-01 -0.0429493351
1998-04-01 -0.1095011697
1998-05-01 0.2362037464
1998-06-01 0.8433186183
1998-07-01 1.5174211043
1998-08-01 2.1693407563
1998-09-01 2.7028276035
1998-10-01 2.7099051444
1998-11-01 1.8612979530
1998-12-01 0.6668240541
1999-01-01 -0.1687019327
1999-02-01 -0.4126085746
1999-03-01 -0.4465599262
1999-04-01 -0.5002604253
1999-05-01 -0.3732430833
1999-06-01 0.0637702321
1999-07-01 1.0019765579
1999-08-01 2.4086567657
1999-09-01 3.6658003819
1999-10-01 3.2368998039
1999-11-01 0.1862400921
1999-12-01 -3.7645052946
2000-01-01 -5.0857649340
2000-02-01 -1.7647640674
2000-03-01 3.6086999284
2000-04-01 6.2450765470
2000-05-01 3.6309783909
2000-06-01 -1.5386537775
2000-07-01 -4.5675694492
2000-08-01 -3.1765156208
2000-09-01 0.4684997905
2000-10-01 2.5013942289
2000-11-01 1.0487017395
2000-12-01 -2.1978742346
2001-01-01 -3.6968424350
2001-02-01 -1.4489611248
2001-03-01 2.7615772550
2001-04-01 5.1648042849
2001-05-01 3.5663748267
2001-06-01 -0.2453318039
2001-07-01 -2.8151786103
2001-08-01 -2.2627548763
2001-09-01 0.1831843152
2001-10-01 2.2914603916
2001-11-01 2.9404154838
2001-12-01 2.5002707879
2002-01-01 1.5595459970
2002-02-01 0.3138814267
2002-03-01 -0.8246574663
2002-04-01 -1.3109591159
2002-05-01 -0.9023789835
2002-06-01 -0.1719996746
2002-07-01 0.1506856005
2002-08-01 -0.1859336567
2002-09-01 -0.8091046673
2002-10-01 -1.1491663290
2002-11-01 -0.9517546102
2002-12-01 -0.4820048599
2003-01-01 -0.0005396069
2003-02-01 0.4851409860
2003-03-01 0.9876704894
2003-04-01 1.5727156255
2003-05-01 2.2768599183
2003-06-01 2.9985974062
2003-07-01 3.2123368573
2003-08-01 2.4527884279
2003-09-01 1.1854360720
2003-10-01 0.0154153455
2003-11-01 -0.8650865064
2003-12-01 -1.5579138460
2004-01-01 -1.9755554802
2004-02-01 -1.8934485887
2004-03-01 -1.5266350230
2004-04-01 -1.0681867139
2004-05-01 -0.5475830972
2004-06-01 -0.0827663978
2004-07-01 0.0741097729
2004-08-01 -0.2051063480
2004-09-01 -0.5947251564
2004-10-01 -0.5913761061
2004-11-01 -0.0119186646
2004-12-01 0.7180977600
2005-01-01 0.7549010421
2005-02-01 -0.3439121381
2005-03-01 -1.8655471388
2005-04-01 -2.4228881260
2005-05-01 -1.2731904191
2005-06-01 0.6145169225
2005-07-01 1.3755273714
2005-08-01 0.0054481653
2005-09-01 -2.3769252184
2005-10-01 -3.4792088315
2005-11-01 -1.9721453324
2005-12-01 0.9073485825
2006-01-01 2.6565779957
2006-02-01 1.8126949065
2006-03-01 -0.5647332924
2006-04-01 -2.6091092457
2006-05-01 -3.3574411203
2006-06-01 -3.1093072807
2006-07-01 -2.1150599019
2006-08-01 -0.3324657804
2006-09-01 1.5417015082
2006-10-01 2.1743424522
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