Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Irregular Component of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Irregular Component of GDP
Series ID BBKMIR
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-06-01
Last Updated 2026-08-31 7:33 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The irregular component of GDP is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 6.8088804088
1960-02-01 3.5355220444
1960-03-01 -2.5279038898
1960-04-01 -5.6815301593
1960-05-01 -3.0610113247
1960-06-01 2.3886304249
1960-07-01 5.0691305959
1960-08-01 2.0341241695
1960-09-01 -3.9112294494
1960-10-01 -7.1456318830
1960-11-01 -4.5389393615
1960-12-01 1.2045128556
1961-01-01 5.1157317095
1961-02-01 4.6550426402
1961-03-01 1.6927459994
1961-04-01 -0.5495737520
1961-05-01 -0.6088940295
1961-06-01 0.6699507836
1961-07-01 1.5800360348
1961-08-01 1.2843226575
1961-09-01 0.2934481515
1961-10-01 -0.1282120542
1961-11-01 0.7262613769
1961-12-01 2.1714352507
1962-01-01 2.6151544803
1962-02-01 1.1485303753
1962-03-01 -1.1490747216
1962-04-01 -2.1113965060
1962-05-01 -0.5895481085
1962-06-01 2.0213821678
1962-07-01 3.0609387355
1962-08-01 1.1626946495
1962-09-01 -2.0460426474
1962-10-01 -3.6247328451
1962-11-01 -2.1520864820
1962-12-01 0.6620605616
1963-01-01 1.8306403778
1963-02-01 -0.0021858379
1963-03-01 -3.0660487759
1963-04-01 -3.7611197340
1963-05-01 -0.1445227145
1963-06-01 5.3332008209
1963-07-01 7.6678139009
1963-08-01 4.0571913906
1963-09-01 -2.3445247464
1963-10-01 -5.6641405475
1963-11-01 -2.8553693234
1963-12-01 2.9781999707
1964-01-01 6.2011298331
1964-02-01 3.9950768193
1964-03-01 -0.9607352942
1964-04-01 -3.7840294490
1964-05-01 -2.0742830984
1964-06-01 1.9178952371
1964-07-01 3.7449777051
1964-08-01 1.0552741318
1964-09-01 -3.8803812651
1964-10-01 -6.2868154012
1964-11-01 -3.4485403784
1964-12-01 2.0669489270
1965-01-01 5.2992413147
1965-02-01 3.5996285935
1965-03-01 -0.7154206925
1965-04-01 -3.2891572272
1965-05-01 -1.8693061380
1965-06-01 1.7461254540
1965-07-01 4.2759581102
1965-08-01 4.1202520604
1965-09-01 2.4675078882
1965-10-01 1.4887575700
1965-11-01 2.1778420191
1965-12-01 3.7168518229
1966-01-01 3.8983650305
1966-02-01 1.2944555683
1966-03-01 -2.6879721740
1966-04-01 -5.0563597545
1966-05-01 -4.0731047194
1966-06-01 -1.3510720618
1966-07-01 0.5331183213
1966-08-01 0.5069473718
1966-09-01 -0.5017922188
1966-10-01 -0.7617697486
1966-11-01 0.5379769047
1966-12-01 2.5383919680
1967-01-01 3.1852931016
1967-02-01 1.2365267956
1967-03-01 -1.9089375404
1967-04-01 -3.5264794050
1967-05-01 -2.1682899193
1967-06-01 0.6045914190
1967-07-01 1.8701518734
1967-08-01 0.1315120854
1967-09-01 -3.0633477233
1967-10-01 -4.4745459861
1967-11-01 -2.2357517142
1967-12-01 1.8790624330
1968-01-01 4.6716923687
1968-02-01 4.5378343867
1968-03-01 2.8230466117
1968-04-01 1.4042844525
1968-05-01 0.8386763860
1968-06-01 0.6743469142
1968-07-01 -0.1225514361
1968-08-01 -2.0537620239
1968-09-01 -4.3417087293
1968-10-01 -4.7894066512
1968-11-01 -1.9278029410
1968-12-01 2.3798879974
1969-01-01 4.4570410296
1969-02-01 2.2807909229
1969-03-01 -1.9307934921
1969-04-01 -4.3360192525
1969-05-01 -3.1028592150
1969-06-01 -0.0834964102
1969-07-01 1.3702620943
1969-08-01 -0.3778918656
1969-09-01 -3.6824119528
1969-10-01 -5.3266197120
1969-11-01 -3.6229408331
1969-12-01 -0.3039857257
1970-01-01 1.6396890689
1970-02-01 0.8712601717
1970-03-01 -1.1018429468
1970-04-01 -1.5842653995
1970-05-01 0.6277958567
1970-06-01 3.8733166136
1970-07-01 4.5119707289
1970-08-01 0.4721694144
1970-09-01 -5.5527125769
1970-10-01 -7.8024665680
1970-11-01 -2.8961358581
1970-12-01 5.4311686858
1971-01-01 9.9742512587
1971-02-01 6.7889943380
1971-03-01 -0.4158872227
1971-04-01 -5.1482750213
1971-05-01 -4.2220762506
1971-06-01 -0.1335110257
1971-07-01 2.3860644864
1971-08-01 0.8614305794
1971-09-01 -3.0855642005
1971-10-01 -5.8259882271
1971-11-01 -5.1618704973
1971-12-01 -2.2912212898
1972-01-01 0.7521955251
1972-02-01 3.0422400059
1972-03-01 4.4750612701
1972-04-01 4.5176807497
1972-05-01 2.5973572645
1972-06-01 -0.0677673030
1972-07-01 -1.8900600243
1972-08-01 -2.2880055271
1972-09-01 -2.0206975036
1972-10-01 -1.4310351067
1972-11-01 -0.1168446156
1972-12-01 1.6960433776
1973-01-01 3.2299095018
1973-02-01 3.7665693458
1973-03-01 3.4225772100
1973-04-01 1.7760779570
1973-05-01 -1.6393892267
1973-06-01 -5.4770590589
1973-07-01 -6.8248558085
1973-08-01 -3.9475404907
1973-09-01 0.7095870893
1973-10-01 2.8218230187
1973-11-01 0.2289277106
1973-12-01 -4.5410759674
1974-01-01 -6.9331221670
1974-02-01 -4.6527053225
1974-03-01 -0.0906031352
1974-04-01 2.2511931701
1974-05-01 0.0135236608
1974-06-01 -4.5650111936
1974-07-01 -6.9365136069
1974-08-01 -4.5222042024
1974-09-01 0.4984468213
1974-10-01 4.1228977017
1974-11-01 4.2857831087
1974-12-01 2.3917322479
1975-01-01 0.9122557284
1975-02-01 1.0227381085
1975-03-01 2.2408219434
1975-04-01 3.2341447619
1975-05-01 3.1185993037
1975-06-01 2.1444751400
1975-07-01 0.9660503133
1975-08-01 0.0047539444
1975-09-01 -0.5539204778
1975-10-01 -0.2829621463
1975-11-01 1.1186825433
1975-12-01 2.8767480242
1976-01-01 3.4591417528
1976-02-01 1.9514699084
1976-03-01 -0.5592113065
1976-04-01 -2.3587105946
1976-05-01 -2.6591576045
1976-06-01 -2.1301748069
1976-07-01 -1.6272931185
1976-08-01 -1.3906217488
1976-09-01 -1.3617528454
1976-10-01 -1.3756367346
1976-11-01 -1.3462862900
1976-12-01 -1.2634740748
1977-01-01 -1.0541016503
1977-02-01 -0.6130134003
1977-03-01 -0.0178781062
1977-04-01 0.8553178644
1977-05-01 2.1903854090
1977-06-01 3.7044056774
1977-07-01 3.9726511367
1977-08-01 1.6998150078
1977-09-01 -2.0240013745
1977-10-01 -5.0648269350
1977-11-01 -6.0994861246
1977-12-01 -5.6349832677
1978-01-01 -3.3648774267
1978-02-01 1.4878183769
1978-03-01 7.1771644927
1978-04-01 9.7960090771
1978-05-01 6.8319171381
1978-06-01 1.1507661092
1978-07-01 -2.6439412352
1978-08-01 -2.4091124625
1978-09-01 0.0576901915
1978-10-01 1.7710916667
1978-11-01 1.3232567860
1978-12-01 -0.5419601937
1979-01-01 -2.3245230422
1979-02-01 -3.1751583404
1979-03-01 -3.1739999637
1979-04-01 -2.3323896656
1979-05-01 -0.5603499452
1979-06-01 1.3509669096
1979-07-01 2.1001944013
1979-08-01 1.0580316157
1979-09-01 -0.6566644403
1979-10-01 -1.3614439894
1979-11-01 -0.3809113894
1979-12-01 1.2611450569
1980-01-01 1.7499395918
1980-02-01 0.2074714489
1980-03-01 -2.1866064841
1980-04-01 -3.3859815101
1980-05-01 -2.4419429494
1980-06-01 -0.6025740423
1980-07-01 0.2539702611
1980-08-01 -0.5233042253
1980-09-01 -1.8152829569
1980-10-01 -1.2654500240
1980-11-01 2.3936523471
1980-12-01 7.2266712345
1981-01-01 8.5977192069
1981-02-01 3.5375958971
1981-03-01 -4.5818042724
1981-04-01 -9.0031728108
1981-05-01 -5.8230248733
1981-06-01 1.4362677167
1981-07-01 6.4193214465
1981-08-01 5.7842523150
1981-09-01 1.6867422937
1981-10-01 -2.4971314256
1981-11-01 -5.3108794740
1981-12-01 -6.7046283916
1982-01-01 -6.0705955971
1982-02-01 -2.7122512282
1982-03-01 1.5270799844
1982-04-01 3.6528115606
1982-05-01 2.1810617063
1982-06-01 -0.9284926051
1982-07-01 -2.7673280434
1982-08-01 -2.1255344787
1982-09-01 -0.2318503644
1982-10-01 1.0415480080
1982-11-01 0.9389067504
1982-12-01 0.1157182652
1983-01-01 -0.1672329536
1983-02-01 0.7338111290
1983-03-01 2.2387879670
1983-04-01 2.9930951595
1983-05-01 2.1625221269
1983-06-01 0.4992524930
1983-07-01 -0.5718998058
1983-08-01 -0.2984751329
1983-09-01 0.7219834753
1983-10-01 1.4104427494
1983-11-01 1.2350890940
1983-12-01 0.5494482232
1984-01-01 0.1510930337
1984-02-01 0.5168918622
1984-03-01 1.3517943006
1984-04-01 1.8905059095
1984-05-01 1.6118229082
1984-06-01 0.7905933342
1984-07-01 -0.0235056051
1984-08-01 -0.5043883581
1984-09-01 -0.6393972415
1984-10-01 -0.3750774975
1984-11-01 0.3210225615
1984-12-01 1.0448196132
1985-01-01 1.1590912043
1985-02-01 0.4029738670
1985-03-01 -0.5985752153
1985-04-01 -0.5980463708
1985-05-01 1.0955942100
1985-06-01 3.4865964331
1985-07-01 4.5087332785
1985-08-01 2.9454333733
1985-09-01 0.1170132411
1985-10-01 -1.6857998918
1985-11-01 -1.3277390221
1985-12-01 0.1840639037
1986-01-01 1.1580178198
1986-02-01 0.8134463836
1986-03-01 -0.2881727273
1986-04-01 -0.9549224817
1986-05-01 -0.5033666177
1986-06-01 0.6199343331
1986-07-01 1.3205511077
1986-08-01 0.8818176424
1986-09-01 -0.2959565513
1986-10-01 -1.3318701863
1986-11-01 -1.6672034158
1986-12-01 -1.4088713584
1987-01-01 -0.7470119575
1987-02-01 0.1981992157
1987-03-01 1.0027917380
1987-04-01 0.9002037004
1987-05-01 -0.4824178922
1987-06-01 -2.2274350267
1987-07-01 -2.5591986512
1987-08-01 -0.5149013680
1987-09-01 2.5053834502
1987-10-01 3.8065131128
1987-11-01 1.9133205254
1987-12-01 -1.4910312882
1988-01-01 -3.3471494381
1988-02-01 -2.0732177428
1988-03-01 0.8048145622
1988-04-01 2.5086054798
1988-05-01 1.6129034532
1988-06-01 -0.7090507267
1988-07-01 -2.1605802555
1988-08-01 -1.4819703647
1988-09-01 0.4604428230
1988-10-01 1.9634717588
1988-11-01 2.0887143600
1988-12-01 1.2748244553
1989-01-01 0.4049870227
1989-02-01 -0.0281628208
1989-03-01 0.0233375431
1989-04-01 0.5452853325
1989-05-01 1.4826771708
1989-06-01 2.3741895856
1989-07-01 2.2805132881
1989-08-01 0.6462635270
1989-09-01 -1.5827141485
1989-10-01 -2.6200427538
1989-11-01 -1.4768783794
1989-12-01 0.7103495736
1990-01-01 2.0452464017
1990-02-01 1.6224176534
1990-03-01 0.2747599710
1990-04-01 -0.6865127506
1990-05-01 -0.7112676271
1990-06-01 -0.2152412564
1990-07-01 -0.0935393889
1990-08-01 -0.8553444214
1990-09-01 -2.1077755547
1990-10-01 -2.8049068533
1990-11-01 -2.2280554603
1990-12-01 -0.9039917786
1991-01-01 0.3536595631
1991-02-01 1.2012635791
1991-03-01 1.7137532522
1991-04-01 1.6750103552
1991-05-01 0.7388452200
1991-06-01 -0.6260744425
1991-07-01 -1.6457808960
1991-08-01 -1.8963226162
1991-09-01 -1.6480365697
1991-10-01 -0.8636572304
1991-11-01 0.7411859939
1991-12-01 2.6508781844
1992-01-01 3.5704293235
1992-02-01 2.5948954401
1992-03-01 0.6276879002
1992-04-01 -0.7813178045
1992-05-01 -0.8238915345
1992-06-01 0.0079306728
1992-07-01 0.9715872009
1992-08-01 1.7293557955
1992-09-01 2.1215590991
1992-10-01 1.5914376724
1992-11-01 -0.2923436084
1992-12-01 -2.6391413886
1993-01-01 -3.7585065962
1993-02-01 -2.7135729298
1993-03-01 -0.6810090201
1993-04-01 0.4982682047
1993-05-01 0.0316315370
1993-06-01 -1.2219394081
1993-07-01 -1.7526170830
1993-08-01 -0.8362287271
1993-09-01 0.7785446197
1993-10-01 1.6488901000
1993-11-01 1.0198773821
1993-12-01 -0.3399167899
1994-01-01 -1.0303777276
1994-02-01 -0.3669042634
1994-03-01 0.9441497927
1994-04-01 1.4245214999
1994-05-01 0.2409146937
1994-06-01 -1.7599067569
1994-07-01 -2.8444498909
1994-08-01 -2.0302254241
1994-09-01 -0.2287934644
1994-10-01 0.8128279038
1994-11-01 0.1526550448
1994-12-01 -1.4547831311
1995-01-01 -2.5733971073
1995-02-01 -2.4356211849
1995-03-01 -1.5306846390
1995-04-01 -0.6184633898
1995-05-01 0.0051667760
1995-06-01 0.3733575503
1995-07-01 0.4418170053
1995-08-01 0.0775304903
1995-09-01 -0.4927970057
1995-10-01 -0.9029256254
1995-11-01 -0.9239666354
1995-12-01 -0.6435369035
1996-01-01 0.0138755311
1996-02-01 1.1668121604
1996-03-01 2.4059720968
1996-04-01 2.7463046845
1996-05-01 1.5644623057
1996-06-01 -0.2519906394
1996-07-01 -1.1857550248
1996-08-01 -0.5172965166
1996-09-01 0.8622967486
1996-10-01 1.3094022845
1996-11-01 -0.0147416930
1996-12-01 -2.1654911011
1997-01-01 -3.0735760787
1997-02-01 -1.4812337721
1997-03-01 1.4077794196
1997-04-01 3.2733658362
1997-05-01 2.8238723090
1997-06-01 1.0358881714
1997-07-01 -0.5975200977
1997-08-01 -1.4620592071
1997-09-01 -1.7360883553
1997-10-01 -1.5804599274
1997-11-01 -0.9417135613
1997-12-01 -0.1762231931
1998-01-01 0.2720028509
1998-02-01 0.2317484189
1998-03-01 -0.0299785789
1998-04-01 -0.0963392463
1998-05-01 0.2502823962
1998-06-01 0.8573704868
1998-07-01 1.5298840495
1998-08-01 2.1807175830
1998-09-01 2.7161868799
1998-10-01 2.7270095846
1998-11-01 1.8793695660
1998-12-01 0.6817404227
1999-01-01 -0.1596915797
1999-02-01 -0.4088587622
1999-03-01 -0.4441641206
1999-04-01 -0.4931590552
1999-05-01 -0.3579644445
1999-06-01 0.0820094707
1999-07-01 1.0132784512
1999-08-01 2.4091861860
1999-09-01 3.6638099202
1999-10-01 3.2441411568
1999-11-01 0.2044390933
1999-12-01 -3.7441944936
2000-01-01 -5.0729498943
2000-02-01 -1.7590803061
2000-03-01 3.6128472220
2000-04-01 6.2519285609
2000-05-01 3.6386391162
2000-06-01 -1.5313791371
2000-07-01 -4.5601472732
2000-08-01 -3.1672543662
2000-09-01 0.4777741698
2000-10-01 2.5081915610
2000-11-01 1.0522815062
2000-12-01 -2.1945310190
2001-01-01 -3.6896345179
2001-02-01 -1.4351273615
2001-03-01 2.7785526385
2001-04-01 5.1778677469
2001-05-01 3.5704816727
2001-06-01 -0.2449071816
2001-07-01 -2.8085538975
2001-08-01 -2.2453606536
2001-09-01 0.2036858927
2001-10-01 2.3050914030
2001-11-01 2.9463572641
2001-12-01 2.5077796118
2002-01-01 1.5743804986
2002-02-01 0.3294180428
2002-03-01 -0.8186341431
2002-04-01 -1.3163700740
2002-05-01 -0.9104445624
2002-06-01 -0.1744691674
2002-07-01 0.1546559785
2002-08-01 -0.1807090080
2002-09-01 -0.8070447534
2002-10-01 -1.1499374879
2002-11-01 -0.9515612817
2002-12-01 -0.4784950557
2003-01-01 0.0053335863
2003-02-01 0.4905972731
2003-03-01 0.9906971520
2003-04-01 1.5746319796
2003-05-01 2.2819333055
2003-06-01 3.0099142137
2003-07-01 3.2270056490
2003-08-01 2.4629319856
2003-09-01 1.1874580270
2003-10-01 0.0118013638
2003-11-01 -0.8698765923
2003-12-01 -1.5619598252
2004-01-01 -1.9790447174
2004-02-01 -1.8968536091
2004-03-01 -1.5317611292
2004-04-01 -1.0761701878
2004-05-01 -0.5567007558
2004-06-01 -0.0895379037
2004-07-01 0.0719740500
2004-08-01 -0.2038719808
2004-09-01 -0.5938094299
2004-10-01 -0.5943723530
2004-11-01 -0.0193951616
2004-12-01 0.7092853051
2005-01-01 0.7485766985
2005-02-01 -0.3472978020
2005-03-01 -1.8686654911
2005-04-01 -2.4277477237
2005-05-01 -1.2779184275
2005-06-01 0.6122884663
2005-07-01 1.3739464851
2005-08-01 -0.0021220796
2005-09-01 -2.3932357480
2005-10-01 -3.4977352409
2005-11-01 -1.9808985165
2005-12-01 0.9109406837
2006-01-01 2.6626827701
2006-02-01 1.8086320128
2006-03-01 -0.5785250361
2006-04-01 -2.6231485805
2006-05-01 -3.3666236392
2006-06-01 -3.1197384051
2006-07-01 -2.1328714732
2006-08-01 -0.3525615653
2006-09-01 1.5293342753
2006-10-01 2.1737807486
2006-11-01 0.7957210091
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2026-06-01 0.0183633134

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