Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index
Series ID BBKMLEIX
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Standard Deviations
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-04-01
Last Updated 2026-06-01 7:32 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 0.6543738364890637000
1960-02-01 1.5182268243583263000
1960-03-01 1.9572404161222239000
1960-04-01 2.2766782970609350000
1960-05-01 1.6936728350724557000
1960-06-01 1.4713352189973048000
1960-07-01 1.3264617448345781000
1960-08-01 1.1459702172237192000
1960-09-01 0.8248745474506138000
1960-10-01 0.7379626727240716000
1960-11-01 0.8268230638276787000
1960-12-01 0.6674472172782957000
1961-01-01 0.8792115822501734000
1961-02-01 0.5583558692524110000
1961-03-01 0.2575744205976394000
1961-04-01 -0.2714390073553524000
1961-05-01 -0.3911022918457372500
1961-06-01 -0.5397631036557631000
1961-07-01 -0.9311564831306872000
1961-08-01 -0.7806090251784777000
1961-09-01 -0.4496164174982275600
1961-10-01 0.0989424261197974900
1961-11-01 0.2361800439112824000
1961-12-01 0.2210369555555784500
1962-01-01 0.4186795326689504700
1962-02-01 0.3555523289401401000
1962-03-01 0.5710802220512381000
1962-04-01 0.8501186109439137000
1962-05-01 0.8368254147427114000
1962-06-01 0.6098446255154002000
1962-07-01 0.5351350062091866000
1962-08-01 0.4710032292784751000
1962-09-01 0.2563689978402500000
1962-10-01 0.1977975042223005000
1962-11-01 0.3095687722398285000
1962-12-01 0.1078899683133282500
1963-01-01 -0.1135905253130606900
1963-02-01 -0.1228827786457940000
1963-03-01 0.0749280207407501100
1963-04-01 0.1932039709465722000
1963-05-01 0.2860543381678389000
1963-06-01 0.4285164004251112000
1963-07-01 0.6361147867135637000
1963-08-01 0.5674121952042109000
1963-09-01 0.6121514930149345000
1963-10-01 0.4758987673562149500
1963-11-01 0.4326248271189787600
1963-12-01 0.6150756808781102000
1964-01-01 0.7089473936301285000
1964-02-01 0.9558136446074871000
1964-03-01 0.7899740439978065000
1964-04-01 0.7721547079228612000
1964-05-01 0.7011024425168338000
1964-06-01 0.5812407270067005000
1964-07-01 0.4370174868662888300
1964-08-01 0.3083145908069031500
1964-09-01 0.0485883561184128760
1964-10-01 -0.1124772262786701600
1964-11-01 -0.2918019895093567600
1964-12-01 0.0585303923922205760
1965-01-01 0.1704068839582390200
1965-02-01 0.6763656185567659000
1965-03-01 0.8057366996794779000
1965-04-01 0.9264389117520142000
1965-05-01 1.2642092679186483000
1965-06-01 1.2543097694258158000
1965-07-01 1.6145328533102340000
1965-08-01 2.0048743167269800000
1965-09-01 2.0219636614509073000
1965-10-01 1.7897255507838820000
1965-11-01 1.1834929839447976000
1965-12-01 0.6805071747839294000
1966-01-01 0.1962683572721178600
1966-02-01 -0.0936732310294062500
1966-03-01 -0.0704485960856061400
1966-04-01 -0.1389238419371584800
1966-05-01 -0.1197196070818597200
1966-06-01 0.1097170627407437000
1966-07-01 0.2514990846865140000
1966-08-01 0.2476264725310426700
1966-09-01 0.5771636677945982000
1966-10-01 1.0148099472831670000
1966-11-01 1.7023510267130022000
1966-12-01 1.8791886785550083000
1967-01-01 2.2706886610056913000
1967-02-01 2.0040128138892577000
1967-03-01 1.9699542576053324000
1967-04-01 1.9589266199550928000
1967-05-01 1.6932650763829387000
1967-06-01 1.3785270371179990000
1967-07-01 1.1425515415236551000
1967-08-01 0.8003964219091140000
1967-09-01 0.7268089947495695000
1967-10-01 0.4760817287986204000
1967-11-01 0.5048490121437400000
1967-12-01 0.8267744201241323000
1968-01-01 1.2526033650718364000
1968-02-01 1.6277111238238486000
1968-03-01 1.6352688435924838000
1968-04-01 1.4011868663010480000
1968-05-01 1.3309245040671642000
1968-06-01 1.1934313068958886000
1968-07-01 0.9856408343205352000
1968-08-01 0.8804512551860162000
1968-09-01 0.4381517178911495400
1968-10-01 0.1239424024372263500
1968-11-01 0.2391211575798391000
1968-12-01 0.3213886070535628700
1969-01-01 0.5055023652485549000
1969-02-01 0.2722719891117409000
1969-03-01 -0.0738014881121376900
1969-04-01 -0.0846539345655471900
1969-05-01 -0.0673562767231151900
1969-06-01 -0.2731977038095524400
1969-07-01 -0.3268458888249060000
1969-08-01 -0.0904898251780611200
1969-09-01 -0.1056396193201221000
1969-10-01 -0.0419014252642241500
1969-11-01 0.1852575174662674000
1969-12-01 0.2898471561700024000
1970-01-01 0.3804443159260801300
1970-02-01 0.6072822702709656000
1970-03-01 0.7123156131164623000
1970-04-01 0.7962460511472800000
1970-05-01 0.8270791196934929000
1970-06-01 1.0226899036626715000
1970-07-01 1.3119137275397648000
1970-08-01 1.3868784705537450000
1970-09-01 1.2055222799672810000
1970-10-01 1.0267382333812145000
1970-11-01 0.8866164722971469000
1970-12-01 0.8811625132218563000
1971-01-01 1.0671190482669903000
1971-02-01 0.8770883262087030000
1971-03-01 0.8417036471002450000
1971-04-01 0.7163749520404290000
1971-05-01 0.3984373251075098000
1971-06-01 0.1796230613441749000
1971-07-01 0.1726161973784714800
1971-08-01 0.0790953410709626500
1971-09-01 -0.1423025457322006600
1971-10-01 -0.1523510182720734800
1971-11-01 0.1194755945154801400
1971-12-01 0.5590203883867321000
1972-01-01 0.7776403582852701000
1972-02-01 0.7278055629428383000
1972-03-01 0.8758935411620299000
1972-04-01 0.6145519918190910000
1972-05-01 0.4647656875377163000
1972-06-01 0.3976955077887937000
1972-07-01 0.2536113107251418000
1972-08-01 0.1021727842410329600
1972-09-01 -0.0365820274910778800
1972-10-01 -0.0682207374183802400
1972-11-01 -0.5159988830427167000
1972-12-01 -0.5743158272595221000
1973-01-01 -0.7585738505257522000
1973-02-01 -1.0785599575553593000
1973-03-01 -1.3606096764408082000
1973-04-01 -1.6132485318208174000
1973-05-01 -1.6213059669015970000
1973-06-01 -1.7471256244549012000
1973-07-01 -1.9771570467019923000
1973-08-01 -2.6052377222949885000
1973-09-01 -2.4011772848960020000
1973-10-01 -2.7017962633756390000
1973-11-01 -2.6636287740322000000
1973-12-01 -2.8321278969199700000
1974-01-01 -2.5108979541461665000
1974-02-01 -2.0006487367717054000
1974-03-01 -1.5320506230990407000
1974-04-01 -1.1422226604753456000
1974-05-01 -0.8468645939874793000
1974-06-01 -0.7340838481539007000
1974-07-01 -0.6739289919436595000
1974-08-01 -0.4790638033321169600
1974-09-01 -0.1956527609740291200
1974-10-01 0.5236927648042523000
1974-11-01 1.2827929928981852000
1974-12-01 2.2648123205630646000
1975-01-01 2.3049971343042057000
1975-02-01 2.2913113151826425000
1975-03-01 2.1821742145431235000
1975-04-01 1.7236394338877425000
1975-05-01 1.3888009621270196000
1975-06-01 0.5153957227989304000
1975-07-01 0.0391797833531473750
1975-08-01 -0.0737438791671125300
1975-09-01 -0.2816093841117388000
1975-10-01 -0.1403463238211795400
1975-11-01 -0.0814276421448120700
1975-12-01 -0.1046748085275414500
1976-01-01 0.1422416801545736000
1976-02-01 0.0827178340842627800
1976-03-01 -0.0225179777794041950
1976-04-01 -0.0397695024933944500
1976-05-01 -0.1957451956067694500
1976-06-01 -0.1861902925460792200
1976-07-01 -0.0811806408697762400
1976-08-01 -0.0044764747020020090
1976-09-01 0.1490869695098691000
1976-10-01 0.0097206417709855970
1976-11-01 0.0102443121526711700
1976-12-01 -0.2101150968264294500
1977-01-01 -0.5684202000432055000
1977-02-01 -0.4640710659023269400
1977-03-01 -0.4010645874334761700
1977-04-01 -0.0792327186015807800
1977-05-01 0.1617950109108547000
1977-06-01 0.2547248764250738000
1977-07-01 0.3708056502625701000
1977-08-01 0.2589944615434117700
1977-09-01 0.2504121518984317500
1977-10-01 0.1279181016249606700
1977-11-01 -0.0133459336853591560
1977-12-01 0.0410646870625931550
1978-01-01 0.2562607474096686000
1978-02-01 0.6830201215502602000
1978-03-01 1.0618028914656383000
1978-04-01 0.9361837238908529000
1978-05-01 0.4940926804309714300
1978-06-01 0.2245576541668720400
1978-07-01 -0.1900325919599952500
1978-08-01 -0.4515650323938463000
1978-09-01 -0.5761988758530259000
1978-10-01 -0.7873785543438835000
1978-11-01 -1.0567286080169500000
1978-12-01 -1.3056882408245236000
1979-01-01 -1.7032662391301105000
1979-02-01 -1.7091853444486562000
1979-03-01 -1.8228229165912635000
1979-04-01 -2.0393305241235313000
1979-05-01 -1.8213145124918986000
1979-06-01 -1.5212330644998941000
1979-07-01 -1.2725411431587308000
1979-08-01 -0.9693692829760336000
1979-09-01 -1.2087558449870637000
1979-10-01 -1.6949761043485514000
1979-11-01 -1.8329805862205573000
1979-12-01 -1.9750187447021097000
1980-01-01 -1.9988580424071736000
1980-02-01 -1.9318805800504142000
1980-03-01 -1.6061599873897905000
1980-04-01 -1.0365341759159203000
1980-05-01 -0.1746722902447754900
1980-06-01 0.5801705985008481000
1980-07-01 0.6888656275411724000
1980-08-01 0.0453625776345445600
1980-09-01 -0.5196605518169153000
1980-10-01 -0.7177792458857886000
1980-11-01 -0.6845047673737157000
1980-12-01 -0.5325544029391583000
1981-01-01 -0.3294516114038338000
1981-02-01 -0.5264401970104284000
1981-03-01 -0.5402847220394608000
1981-04-01 -0.7534759843010566000
1981-05-01 -0.8313532506724753000
1981-06-01 -0.7845287854606996000
1981-07-01 -0.5399105300047111000
1981-08-01 -0.2877279984364905500
1981-09-01 -0.2438628629351030000
1981-10-01 0.2786864130298277000
1981-11-01 0.6795367589554613000
1981-12-01 0.7352518894966462000
1982-01-01 0.6891677869999143000
1982-02-01 0.6586323711459850000
1982-03-01 0.6211677697479098000
1982-04-01 0.5365597176531165000
1982-05-01 0.4349342219749969000
1982-06-01 0.3641861802295189300
1982-07-01 0.9772047009685062000
1982-08-01 1.3286486593584420000
1982-09-01 1.6592818127741311000
1982-10-01 1.7721028162428452000
1982-11-01 1.6913989903602440000
1982-12-01 1.2863480385656854000
1983-01-01 0.7467446095433903000
1983-02-01 0.3153290566517666000
1983-03-01 0.3763690168885542300
1983-04-01 0.1904765497723712700
1983-05-01 0.0649070509400072300
1983-06-01 -0.1354453770736239200
1983-07-01 -0.2127363975425314000
1983-08-01 -0.3571416359847217600
1983-09-01 -0.2464071286419946000
1983-10-01 -0.2815867927992105000
1983-11-01 -0.3133842186814858600
1983-12-01 -0.0896794495611754500
1984-01-01 0.1142126916093286600
1984-02-01 0.2022644467064117500
1984-03-01 0.4417206171280962400
1984-04-01 0.8170677937564703000
1984-05-01 0.7393231376330638000
1984-06-01 0.6563159129260219000
1984-07-01 0.4497961366475946600
1984-08-01 0.5282010634969683000
1984-09-01 0.7720933037500873000
1984-10-01 0.5877819710378791000
1984-11-01 0.9050031088530244000
1984-12-01 0.8798894657612218000
1985-01-01 0.9111018654984324000
1985-02-01 0.8716647483123806000
1985-03-01 0.6682951817238265000
1985-04-01 0.8121092670785245000
1985-05-01 1.0489011010561833000
1985-06-01 1.2510601412485303000
1985-07-01 1.0597637725392444000
1985-08-01 0.9029430928413050000
1985-09-01 0.7610221025528877000
1985-10-01 0.2585555694718955000
1985-11-01 0.2551686225106126000
1985-12-01 0.5853440997817041000
1986-01-01 0.3877913614515439000
1986-02-01 0.6148365543479953000
1986-03-01 0.8447683242720333000
1986-04-01 0.5060338852536780000
1986-05-01 0.1788521711531361500
1986-06-01 -0.1323922808266450300
1986-07-01 -0.2353760532003391400
1986-08-01 -0.3837175997354539000
1986-09-01 -0.4244867503330065000
1986-10-01 -0.6171524116697003000
1986-11-01 -0.6630893286680642000
1986-12-01 -0.8787120242333657000
1987-01-01 -1.3744157993045019000
1987-02-01 -1.0992021572773996000
1987-03-01 -1.1164412008861462000
1987-04-01 -1.1127269793872927000
1987-05-01 -1.0359811248976813000
1987-06-01 -1.1684363500780580000
1987-07-01 -1.0325167903961758000
1987-08-01 -0.8297075281045808000
1987-09-01 -1.0757711085351902000
1987-10-01 -0.8971562605417587000
1987-11-01 -0.7431289257228460000
1987-12-01 -0.6593789221017529000
1988-01-01 -0.4566537467961223600
1988-02-01 -0.3163562368257501500
1988-03-01 -0.4141944209080809500
1988-04-01 -0.4642659884757238700
1988-05-01 -0.4295105247988390000
1988-06-01 -0.4865034584186236000
1988-07-01 -0.4202453702294564600
1988-08-01 -0.3330020255968188000
1988-09-01 -0.3664768861708997400
1988-10-01 -0.0628247183653316600
1988-11-01 -0.2176085029317240400
1988-12-01 -0.2372223868764545000
1989-01-01 -0.2677484983326282000
1989-02-01 -0.3880841209477381000
1989-03-01 -0.4136533126648660500
1989-04-01 -0.2435639684979489500
1989-05-01 0.0147220075506985650
1989-06-01 0.5056892064938813000
1989-07-01 0.6917704315636240000
1989-08-01 0.5139134506657502000
1989-09-01 0.3333309408183596000
1989-10-01 -0.0408208604412772650
1989-11-01 -0.3411614052810153000
1989-12-01 -0.4508040094325230000
1990-01-01 -0.6817604182606217000
1990-02-01 -1.2143655791864210000
1990-03-01 -1.1486806959697473000
1990-04-01 -1.2322521270009474000
1990-05-01 -1.2952515451858355000
1990-06-01 -1.5454877048259192000
1990-07-01 -1.8289074970837450000
1990-08-01 -2.1509321771299470000
1990-09-01 -2.0270548049983970000
1990-10-01 -1.7876536413080573000
1990-11-01 -1.1533746450914328000
1990-12-01 -0.7920141931700035000
1991-01-01 -0.3862148442584713600
1991-02-01 0.3322997351166611700
1991-03-01 0.4156450871578055000
1991-04-01 -0.1251204007697100400
1991-05-01 -0.5444262116666990000
1991-06-01 -0.8404068190642203000
1991-07-01 -1.1213767994880288000
1991-08-01 -1.2715757801753542000
1991-09-01 -1.1688297174723148000
1991-10-01 -0.9616873566566702000
1991-11-01 -0.5648287189480837000
1991-12-01 -0.1658332447702251000
1992-01-01 0.0524716977392933200
1992-02-01 -0.2461569216067492600
1992-03-01 -0.4378114228470555000
1992-04-01 -0.3856394982134884000
1992-05-01 -0.4806385699149882700
1992-06-01 -0.6686109631069581000
1992-07-01 -0.5558962574141952000
1992-08-01 -0.3416626936933574000
1992-09-01 -0.3707331874750976500
1992-10-01 -0.4708096527954981300
1992-11-01 -0.5514693151374995000
1992-12-01 -0.6208219702331275000
1993-01-01 -1.1700375770192153000
1993-02-01 -1.1242177906388602000
1993-03-01 -0.8622512074514712000
1993-04-01 -0.4314049148244520300
1993-05-01 -0.3952659066747379300
1993-06-01 -0.0279853609701567500
1993-07-01 0.2063831759245341200
1993-08-01 0.1579742703408915000
1993-09-01 0.1401150127750041300
1993-10-01 0.0572937115292224700
1993-11-01 0.0574138225653526800
1993-12-01 -0.0073701130103047130
1994-01-01 -0.4626625557133431400
1994-02-01 -0.7471207295227377000
1994-03-01 -0.9098337111838046000
1994-04-01 -1.0858795588649248000
1994-05-01 -1.2567475075582573000
1994-06-01 -1.2880497201226462000
1994-07-01 -1.3881510596376656000
1994-08-01 -1.4192482870773933000
1994-09-01 -1.2605074050954790000
1994-10-01 -1.1991539376049998000
1994-11-01 -1.3169634522264526000
1994-12-01 -1.3297319901555196000
1995-01-01 -1.3000724166028979000
1995-02-01 -1.0615426770790317000
1995-03-01 -0.6730475433370516000
1995-04-01 -0.4182869004779608000
1995-05-01 -0.0367107003308884300
1995-06-01 0.2340781778470798500
1995-07-01 0.3136092567018457000
1995-08-01 0.1833968908658647000
1995-09-01 0.0938602901103307900
1995-10-01 0.0396141746320479650
1995-11-01 0.2355089990369241000
1995-12-01 0.1703268580766035500
1996-01-01 0.1309124297012525300
1996-02-01 0.4036996982278729400
1996-03-01 0.3215824838380867000
1996-04-01 0.0978851185024721100
1996-05-01 0.0546597294486098200
1996-06-01 -0.0747671491239939300
1996-07-01 -0.1758275749045394000
1996-08-01 -0.1601970378720388700
1996-09-01 -0.3439760209635284000
1996-10-01 -0.3084531916221649000
1996-11-01 -0.2811617293062213000
1996-12-01 -0.3376613062130955400
1997-01-01 -0.1647952013568815500
1997-02-01 -0.0192859685879713980
1997-03-01 0.1658625686421055800
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