Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index
Series ID BBKMLEIX
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Standard Deviations
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-06-01
Last Updated 2026-08-03 7:32 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 0.6486279430595414000
1960-02-01 1.5292000809798205000
1960-03-01 1.9737502798398656000
1960-04-01 2.2977117242915950000
1960-05-01 1.6974526172510050000
1960-06-01 1.4725333522095285000
1960-07-01 1.3298084278247329000
1960-08-01 1.1502979442320302000
1960-09-01 0.8252353720633596000
1960-10-01 0.7414643838624221000
1960-11-01 0.8369318068928091000
1960-12-01 0.6796685491967390000
1961-01-01 0.9072904661450333000
1961-02-01 0.5872223206255632000
1961-03-01 0.2881898682503432600
1961-04-01 -0.2459245685336512400
1961-05-01 -0.3602352433697944600
1961-06-01 -0.5068451013119277000
1961-07-01 -0.9068096288666977000
1961-08-01 -0.7529760981861892000
1961-09-01 -0.4169888740903639000
1961-10-01 0.1417580728372029000
1961-11-01 0.2765985256834209700
1961-12-01 0.2531315332578313000
1962-01-01 0.4499485750069422400
1962-02-01 0.3787579683765595000
1962-03-01 0.5973604036548834000
1962-04-01 0.8810271436421688000
1962-05-01 0.8647425070203635000
1962-06-01 0.6311091773462358000
1962-07-01 0.5565454627667397000
1962-08-01 0.4932204287564463000
1962-09-01 0.2770518149602817000
1962-10-01 0.2215956145066730000
1962-11-01 0.3395082437148406000
1962-12-01 0.1328320198578191400
1963-01-01 -0.0957927665926487800
1963-02-01 -0.1054674151073053800
1963-03-01 0.0967675465669204100
1963-04-01 0.2156605779909974200
1963-05-01 0.3083223857117732300
1963-06-01 0.4519579231031090000
1963-07-01 0.6625091191510865000
1963-08-01 0.5900910109468972000
1963-09-01 0.6349708332706072000
1963-10-01 0.4931843286462865000
1963-11-01 0.4468143621986980000
1963-12-01 0.6337840621111070000
1964-01-01 0.7278701519415199000
1964-02-01 0.9806000432602535000
1964-03-01 0.8089593688324147000
1964-04-01 0.7917281204615612000
1964-05-01 0.7215131183797662000
1964-06-01 0.6016838344838733000
1964-07-01 0.4565224599125372000
1964-08-01 0.3273516664850771300
1964-09-01 0.0624910524501035360
1964-10-01 -0.1009164384575880800
1964-11-01 -0.2866060600336058400
1964-12-01 0.0715414663605990100
1965-01-01 0.1800256455569372300
1965-02-01 0.6939122045603136000
1965-03-01 0.8185440291112693000
1965-04-01 0.9348789407013856000
1965-05-01 1.2758825747862260000
1965-06-01 1.2588730716233538000
1965-07-01 1.6251651605880326000
1965-08-01 2.0257403624406450000
1965-09-01 2.0455413870933520000
1965-10-01 1.8126134642403338000
1965-11-01 1.1966702822721187000
1965-12-01 0.6884158795327019000
1966-01-01 0.1986144650429805300
1966-02-01 -0.0931228060375380200
1966-03-01 -0.0657332173181206100
1966-04-01 -0.1364926951663754400
1966-05-01 -0.1198227244626614100
1966-06-01 0.1120343585132986400
1966-07-01 0.2511523547954822000
1966-08-01 0.2377299867995888400
1966-09-01 0.5658885034016606000
1966-10-01 1.0040002627670017000
1966-11-01 1.7013895678778312000
1966-12-01 1.8748121308365395000
1967-01-01 2.2734032887689710000
1967-02-01 1.9960915187074468000
1967-03-01 1.9621567136736098000
1967-04-01 1.9540904845029172000
1967-05-01 1.6858999202588570000
1967-06-01 1.3684942274944105000
1967-07-01 1.1325280117914212000
1967-08-01 0.7858149238094267000
1967-09-01 0.7153646276109215000
1967-10-01 0.4584426632638106700
1967-11-01 0.4866099488922012000
1967-12-01 0.8139778660522682000
1968-01-01 1.2472054565254933000
1968-02-01 1.6283733555903104000
1968-03-01 1.6339620134296124000
1968-04-01 1.3923638040083208000
1968-05-01 1.3232365812211313000
1968-06-01 1.1870017943371470000
1968-07-01 0.9792541494730413000
1968-08-01 0.8778560444876399000
1968-09-01 0.4283466824374350000
1968-10-01 0.1089516937619133300
1968-11-01 0.2298241967360077600
1968-12-01 0.3152413542402279000
1969-01-01 0.5068246592344807000
1969-02-01 0.2693342199141466300
1969-03-01 -0.0836991632001655400
1969-04-01 -0.0914103730615665600
1969-05-01 -0.0716763962532077200
1969-06-01 -0.2837035722857579300
1969-07-01 -0.3393577967503512700
1969-08-01 -0.0972601392721285700
1969-09-01 -0.1155774772016180100
1969-10-01 -0.0544730511636834800
1969-11-01 0.1743578804822737400
1969-12-01 0.2761597326675715400
1970-01-01 0.3644388854536085300
1970-02-01 0.5931051171573005000
1970-03-01 0.6965553951391887000
1970-04-01 0.7798121309486644000
1970-05-01 0.8087975743348977000
1970-06-01 1.0068760656204030000
1970-07-01 1.3016306210187367000
1970-08-01 1.3781947349494257000
1970-09-01 1.1926196887480767000
1970-10-01 1.0107910846439572000
1970-11-01 0.8686262498893516000
1970-12-01 0.8660751893679002000
1971-01-01 1.0608633547979610000
1971-02-01 0.8685778730237722000
1971-03-01 0.8369523838739864000
1971-04-01 0.7133941056666266000
1971-05-01 0.3908464688023372000
1971-06-01 0.1700211930945182700
1971-07-01 0.1663807546798048000
1971-08-01 0.0727482075545127900
1971-09-01 -0.1539443030005375500
1971-10-01 -0.1641328460374429600
1971-11-01 0.1132074947484258400
1971-12-01 0.5620961922976535000
1972-01-01 0.7826869705050068000
1972-02-01 0.7274762062933727000
1972-03-01 0.8791748086613163000
1972-04-01 0.6104709402214793000
1972-05-01 0.4593325081584472300
1972-06-01 0.3949948597113595000
1972-07-01 0.2526073074109758700
1972-08-01 0.1032041739567511300
1972-09-01 -0.0323410243924180700
1972-10-01 -0.0573729466767916860
1972-11-01 -0.5121488862708230000
1972-12-01 -0.5657592471833763000
1973-01-01 -0.7498904342863797000
1973-02-01 -1.0737909878212966000
1973-03-01 -1.3574944665853865000
1973-04-01 -1.6108708598551749000
1973-05-01 -1.6121913402857326000
1973-06-01 -1.7345383912371515000
1973-07-01 -1.9638409300130720000
1973-08-01 -2.6052919987887946000
1973-09-01 -2.3890254856725215000
1973-10-01 -2.6966049925662037000
1973-11-01 -2.6571974584296694000
1973-12-01 -2.8355037318793626000
1974-01-01 -2.5126181673147614000
1974-02-01 -1.9973977043822482000
1974-03-01 -1.5265819647619479000
1974-04-01 -1.1370866390767713000
1974-05-01 -0.8442383164580683000
1974-06-01 -0.7398437519019453000
1974-07-01 -0.6912837254349815000
1974-08-01 -0.5055001722220351000
1974-09-01 -0.2321122360101927600
1974-10-01 0.4907834833910476600
1974-11-01 1.2556537392876788000
1974-12-01 2.2553240053236214000
1975-01-01 2.2902041224932708000
1975-02-01 2.2773597093780290000
1975-03-01 2.1710454559746797000
1975-04-01 1.7107079641034730000
1975-05-01 1.3825195352620074000
1975-06-01 0.4986007210804160000
1975-07-01 0.0222442411454232200
1975-08-01 -0.0836972118045205300
1975-09-01 -0.2914282901883820000
1975-10-01 -0.1415011743499354000
1975-11-01 -0.0790724571897078200
1975-12-01 -0.1030021663949905500
1976-01-01 0.1513630745737219700
1976-02-01 0.0896195713491238400
1976-03-01 -0.0188884071663088200
1976-04-01 -0.0364951696564409160
1976-05-01 -0.1967546828003066000
1976-06-01 -0.1868492788227141300
1976-07-01 -0.0792956152182387200
1976-08-01 -0.0004291884104048252
1976-09-01 0.1582259565105571000
1976-10-01 0.0160665547329058020
1976-11-01 0.0190367004190882540
1976-12-01 -0.2050998047921974700
1977-01-01 -0.5725485101167065000
1977-02-01 -0.4656171153785899600
1977-03-01 -0.4032913137359611700
1977-04-01 -0.0759507741633929000
1977-05-01 0.1670304140199243300
1977-06-01 0.2585446181452120000
1977-07-01 0.3756639242468049500
1977-08-01 0.2597342147250321000
1977-09-01 0.2515294224323365600
1977-10-01 0.1262204320504088400
1977-11-01 -0.0202419117484962040
1977-12-01 0.0333684687378050600
1978-01-01 0.2516381002540365500
1978-02-01 0.6887603230421399000
1978-03-01 1.0780192536992840000
1978-04-01 0.9504012304303632000
1978-05-01 0.4996262105622209500
1978-06-01 0.2298132819076788000
1978-07-01 -0.1882189130751553400
1978-08-01 -0.4485550221758072000
1978-09-01 -0.5683821934890567000
1978-10-01 -0.7774649366530190000
1978-11-01 -1.0467576011021837000
1978-12-01 -1.2953372867106465000
1979-01-01 -1.6977746632747660000
1979-02-01 -1.6972866962498927000
1979-03-01 -1.8095809174096760000
1979-04-01 -2.0313612981598834000
1979-05-01 -1.8086729056244290000
1979-06-01 -1.5037120592647812000
1979-07-01 -1.2513053076067593000
1979-08-01 -0.9391525422871191000
1979-09-01 -1.1844712375397097000
1979-10-01 -1.6833315812291040000
1979-11-01 -1.8236337320615366000
1979-12-01 -1.9711799380327248000
1980-01-01 -2.0000020189691474000
1980-02-01 -1.9400580451198350000
1980-03-01 -1.6165961329057816000
1980-04-01 -1.0413831081365361000
1980-05-01 -0.1615208611465086500
1980-06-01 0.6131799001778286000
1980-07-01 0.7268539032852769000
1980-08-01 0.0684008120740607500
1980-09-01 -0.5084032051045722000
1980-10-01 -0.7089406364585829000
1980-11-01 -0.6754976797713422000
1980-12-01 -0.5211381482211639000
1981-01-01 -0.3125077940193769000
1981-02-01 -0.5157887362173847000
1981-03-01 -0.5288677053983081000
1981-04-01 -0.7477729028558623000
1981-05-01 -0.8303034171526638000
1981-06-01 -0.7860984402484156000
1981-07-01 -0.5400817713799086000
1981-08-01 -0.2878496916404680000
1981-09-01 -0.2519965580963206000
1981-10-01 0.2785991828102790000
1981-11-01 0.6861078867465468000
1981-12-01 0.7418276777310935000
1982-01-01 0.6950684106887288000
1982-02-01 0.6619081244087154000
1982-03-01 0.6224508489584432000
1982-04-01 0.5333264574913014000
1982-05-01 0.4265990349874277400
1982-06-01 0.3493095391275548600
1982-07-01 0.9764395966995932000
1982-08-01 1.3332893224485411000
1982-09-01 1.6719509692145211000
1982-10-01 1.7900577001857665000
1982-11-01 1.7126436138039747000
1982-12-01 1.3040571190154550000
1983-01-01 0.7599851254050107000
1983-02-01 0.3241737122454609000
1983-03-01 0.3964285661420793300
1983-04-01 0.2115111872969648300
1983-05-01 0.0884974660524507100
1983-06-01 -0.1139757375245585200
1983-07-01 -0.1917765198629635000
1983-08-01 -0.3407724923391889000
1983-09-01 -0.2262859545719395300
1983-10-01 -0.2631475082889166000
1983-11-01 -0.2985912366371746000
1983-12-01 -0.0722059881912599900
1984-01-01 0.1341518246846372000
1984-02-01 0.2155412100275386200
1984-03-01 0.4555674551189282700
1984-04-01 0.8364778917105969000
1984-05-01 0.7526165002362302000
1984-06-01 0.6645977868580963000
1984-07-01 0.4496598229058263500
1984-08-01 0.5290912622511104000
1984-09-01 0.7797946500458113000
1984-10-01 0.5884899582393184000
1984-11-01 0.9144553136101332000
1984-12-01 0.8862144809631010000
1985-01-01 0.9209262175730087000
1985-02-01 0.8781472015129581000
1985-03-01 0.6678143497810417000
1985-04-01 0.8151750248695827000
1985-05-01 1.0569770196195550000
1985-06-01 1.2640659354697825000
1985-07-01 1.0689054096102420000
1985-08-01 0.9107483258383845000
1985-09-01 0.7689766445183444000
1985-10-01 0.2548035445582081400
1985-11-01 0.2542438676281798500
1985-12-01 0.5958775221737428000
1986-01-01 0.3948161968464602000
1986-02-01 0.6281163491274806000
1986-03-01 0.8678139161276018000
1986-04-01 0.5237226691781912000
1986-05-01 0.1928972361170260000
1986-06-01 -0.1206109800524970100
1986-07-01 -0.2189283224848329000
1986-08-01 -0.3650606962718064000
1986-09-01 -0.4007155745250250400
1986-10-01 -0.5949004975268497000
1986-11-01 -0.6363572747096923000
1986-12-01 -0.8518540427984386000
1987-01-01 -1.3567400957879274000
1987-02-01 -1.0697652795035872000
1987-03-01 -1.0864108645245385000
1987-04-01 -1.0827479322078057000
1987-05-01 -1.0038969018593824000
1987-06-01 -1.1407440881627242000
1987-07-01 -1.0029101781567618000
1987-08-01 -0.7981384575206604000
1987-09-01 -1.0564167054861893000
1987-10-01 -0.8771602957506539000
1987-11-01 -0.7223034508676023000
1987-12-01 -0.6388567892526410000
1988-01-01 -0.4303485387427633000
1988-02-01 -0.2893223329604151500
1988-03-01 -0.3916798392145546000
1988-04-01 -0.4456364097115016000
1988-05-01 -0.4110796409850417400
1988-06-01 -0.4712104532948436000
1988-07-01 -0.4047780166070474000
1988-08-01 -0.3164254309544488600
1988-09-01 -0.3528884104120259500
1988-10-01 -0.0412591471046222700
1988-11-01 -0.2028606313212630600
1988-12-01 -0.2239231706398718300
1989-01-01 -0.2549511832449798400
1989-02-01 -0.3827873670184664400
1989-03-01 -0.4128487581498168600
1989-04-01 -0.2422398906046002700
1989-05-01 0.0188292714339016400
1989-06-01 0.5205798574630416000
1989-07-01 0.7109479623280299000
1989-08-01 0.5304333565675278000
1989-09-01 0.3493601958603856400
1989-10-01 -0.0301125671143728240
1989-11-01 -0.3322645646469866700
1989-12-01 -0.4371950195285712600
1990-01-01 -0.6667480289795542000
1990-02-01 -1.2092205219763303000
1990-03-01 -1.1319719457586124000
1990-04-01 -1.2127280091293025000
1990-05-01 -1.2734476574715867000
1990-06-01 -1.5258918236904875000
1990-07-01 -1.8148882107987070000
1990-08-01 -2.1481888708498810000
1990-09-01 -2.0238121332415053000
1990-10-01 -1.7832981940929669000
1990-11-01 -1.1386911567918570000
1990-12-01 -0.7765137292250933000
1991-01-01 -0.3659204002339314600
1991-02-01 0.3692697628763965700
1991-03-01 0.4549437900123060600
1991-04-01 -0.1004301740414289800
1991-05-01 -0.5274914380328635000
1991-06-01 -0.8266398185433105000
1991-07-01 -1.1116571974196876000
1991-08-01 -1.2648617428458286000
1991-09-01 -1.1605917047842707000
1991-10-01 -0.9529964964041967000
1991-11-01 -0.5505366788282231000
1991-12-01 -0.1422539692548412400
1992-01-01 0.0792673829905182000
1992-02-01 -0.2227041516944877300
1992-03-01 -0.4121749957934150000
1992-04-01 -0.3659342114264760300
1992-05-01 -0.4623014518525973600
1992-06-01 -0.6483055864591113000
1992-07-01 -0.5376833352601125000
1992-08-01 -0.3203826987285161600
1992-09-01 -0.3473717230010604500
1992-10-01 -0.4487928956043935000
1992-11-01 -0.5323242595825165000
1992-12-01 -0.5987697228162208000
1993-01-01 -1.1722709300180734000
1993-02-01 -1.1186044036916083000
1993-03-01 -0.8442224938716328000
1993-04-01 -0.4175168923463714000
1993-05-01 -0.3867824448100021000
1993-06-01 -0.0076360166978336344
1993-07-01 0.2253909769227708200
1993-08-01 0.1746374228385839000
1993-09-01 0.1607977624502438000
1993-10-01 0.0787759549358490000
1993-11-01 0.0831923848316002400
1993-12-01 0.0236767986113311930
1994-01-01 -0.4385941502044864400
1994-02-01 -0.7251666417512985000
1994-03-01 -0.8873037221154716000
1994-04-01 -1.0630354534123820000
1994-05-01 -1.2348227428569858000
1994-06-01 -1.2642305193983830000
1994-07-01 -1.3660277697406071000
1994-08-01 -1.3976831919547181000
1994-09-01 -1.2348984875673645000
1994-10-01 -1.1732377238472445000
1994-11-01 -1.2962465433089017000
1994-12-01 -1.3132463866388730000
1995-01-01 -1.2880557103115162000
1995-02-01 -1.0513859074358496000
1995-03-01 -0.6600320598806398000
1995-04-01 -0.4073752856214985500
1995-05-01 -0.0224639349832018960
1995-06-01 0.2483905415875159200
1995-07-01 0.3239383122676738000
1995-08-01 0.1856513287634393700
1995-09-01 0.0915277735374038500
1995-10-01 0.0357017549916911400
1995-11-01 0.2377313665098292000
1995-12-01 0.1697445786267996700
1996-01-01 0.1293730687305558200
1996-02-01 0.4118750980158768000
1996-03-01 0.3295285958221070300
1996-04-01 0.1024180280357682600
1996-05-01 0.0640365281008745800
1996-06-01 -0.0668068429907932000
1996-07-01 -0.1687275609253250700
1996-08-01 -0.1517504208032042500
1996-09-01 -0.3399965203548803700
1996-10-01 -0.3011983341866011400
1996-11-01 -0.2729998727071239000
1996-12-01 -0.3316653361625312400
1997-01-01 -0.1545483900314265400
1997-02-01 -0.0081047317517944240
1997-03-01 0.1780966910958372300
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