Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index
Series ID BBKMLEIX
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Standard Deviations
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-08-01
Last Updated 2026-10-05 7:33 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 0.6257909999
1960-02-01 1.5230140527
1960-03-01 1.9724822315
1960-04-01 2.3005702009
1960-05-01 1.6855484707
1960-06-01 1.4575735676
1960-07-01 1.3151465495
1960-08-01 1.1357307553
1960-09-01 0.8067070728
1960-10-01 0.7243312843
1960-11-01 0.8275467842
1960-12-01 0.6713008294
1961-01-01 0.9096993351
1961-02-01 0.5876376432
1961-03-01 0.2880130544
1961-04-01 -0.2531067230
1961-05-01 -0.3647287715
1961-06-01 -0.5112863390
1961-07-01 -0.9207422323
1961-08-01 -0.7644626066
1961-09-01 -0.4233272773
1961-10-01 0.1450142034
1961-11-01 0.2779505548
1961-12-01 0.2488282306
1962-01-01 0.4472927675
1962-02-01 0.3691666883
1962-03-01 0.5905360824
1962-04-01 0.8798395000
1962-05-01 0.8625217979
1962-06-01 0.6236909832
1962-07-01 0.5484670921
1962-08-01 0.4858335867
1962-09-01 0.2657320272
1962-10-01 0.2120058034
1962-11-01 0.3347174326
1962-12-01 0.1247810405
1963-01-01 -0.1083509218
1963-02-01 -0.1191778069
1963-03-01 0.0884378333
1963-04-01 0.2088656424
1963-05-01 0.3021626436
1963-06-01 0.4471735809
1963-07-01 0.6614922304
1963-08-01 0.5851921008
1963-09-01 0.6306821224
1963-10-01 0.4836157491
1963-11-01 0.4347881315
1963-12-01 0.6244849999
1964-01-01 0.7187835274
1964-02-01 0.9771738745
1964-03-01 0.8014185627
1964-04-01 0.7843321680
1964-05-01 0.7136008926
1964-06-01 0.5936966671
1964-07-01 0.4476801039
1964-08-01 0.3185712411
1964-09-01 0.0496827806
1964-10-01 -0.1156806875
1964-11-01 -0.3066425496
1964-12-01 0.0589913614
1965-01-01 0.1663018942
1965-02-01 0.6879107817
1965-03-01 0.8092590834
1965-04-01 0.9224450960
1965-05-01 1.2673828964
1965-06-01 1.2454084185
1965-07-01 1.6177838807
1965-08-01 2.0279430367
1965-09-01 2.0489751831
1965-10-01 1.8144728312
1965-11-01 1.1897265754
1965-12-01 0.6760445990
1966-01-01 0.1808309527
1966-02-01 -0.1140886363
1966-03-01 -0.0837761315
1966-04-01 -0.1564499505
1966-05-01 -0.1415074484
1966-06-01 0.0929960666
1966-07-01 0.2321749086
1966-08-01 0.2130358266
1966-09-01 0.5429302772
1966-10-01 0.9845553723
1966-11-01 1.6925160380
1966-12-01 1.8639584359
1967-01-01 2.2702359576
1967-02-01 1.9847148765
1967-03-01 1.9508112092
1967-04-01 1.9454158526
1967-05-01 1.6741644786
1967-06-01 1.3524793449
1967-07-01 1.1165902457
1967-08-01 0.7642381344
1967-09-01 0.6959569774
1967-10-01 0.4368654110
1967-11-01 0.4643600877
1967-12-01 0.7992172628
1968-01-01 1.2431609443
1968-02-01 1.6315525679
1968-03-01 1.6355757491
1968-04-01 1.3879228065
1968-05-01 1.3186766159
1968-06-01 1.1816614244
1968-07-01 0.9728343318
1968-08-01 0.8754236419
1968-09-01 0.4209339923
1968-10-01 0.0962115560
1968-11-01 0.2222941049
1968-12-01 0.3126403497
1969-01-01 0.5107390962
1969-02-01 0.2692999036
1969-03-01 -0.0907285871
1969-04-01 -0.0958466483
1969-05-01 -0.0733663740
1969-06-01 -0.2906491391
1969-07-01 -0.3490486454
1969-08-01 -0.1030382129
1969-09-01 -0.1239089359
1969-10-01 -0.0640592573
1969-11-01 0.1685319246
1969-12-01 0.2681040357
1970-01-01 0.3561753684
1970-02-01 0.5884081765
1970-03-01 0.6927629704
1970-04-01 0.7756304583
1970-05-01 0.8025002328
1970-06-01 1.0038364164
1970-07-01 1.3051209195
1970-08-01 1.3847627079
1970-09-01 1.1961788568
1970-10-01 1.0121864040
1970-11-01 0.8688949233
1970-12-01 0.8667899664
1971-01-01 1.0697518031
1971-02-01 0.8752533409
1971-03-01 0.8458281633
1971-04-01 0.7214197795
1971-05-01 0.3926036728
1971-06-01 0.1675658092
1971-07-01 0.1664367501
1971-08-01 0.0714810986
1971-09-01 -0.1614069528
1971-10-01 -0.1710437416
1971-11-01 0.1127295924
1971-12-01 0.5721780642
1972-01-01 0.7967185114
1972-02-01 0.7367389588
1972-03-01 0.8912624373
1972-04-01 0.6162777418
1972-05-01 0.4628123409
1972-06-01 0.3999974271
1972-07-01 0.2580693528
1972-08-01 0.1083697447
1972-09-01 -0.0262350424
1972-10-01 -0.0462828983
1972-11-01 -0.5062668805
1972-12-01 -0.5544587099
1973-01-01 -0.7375989063
1973-02-01 -1.0630661019
1973-03-01 -1.3472351034
1973-04-01 -1.6010500892
1973-05-01 -1.5977174649
1973-06-01 -1.7190429923
1973-07-01 -1.9495192683
1973-08-01 -2.6045359616
1973-09-01 -2.3782011001
1973-10-01 -2.6918819224
1973-11-01 -2.6500281411
1973-12-01 -2.8355483076
1974-01-01 -2.5117579116
1974-02-01 -1.9925444048
1974-03-01 -1.5199811152
1974-04-01 -1.1303087802
1974-05-01 -0.8390371297
1974-06-01 -0.7406176057
1974-07-01 -0.7006232339
1974-08-01 -0.5193154839
1974-09-01 -0.2505067348
1974-10-01 0.4779865895
1974-11-01 1.2504742665
1974-12-01 2.2677542145
1975-01-01 2.2972786059
1975-02-01 2.2852429446
1975-03-01 2.1798070436
1975-04-01 1.7131698800
1975-05-01 1.3875822382
1975-06-01 0.4931125935
1975-07-01 0.0143218760
1975-08-01 -0.0857080716
1975-09-01 -0.2935294099
1975-10-01 -0.1344524279
1975-11-01 -0.0702671217
1975-12-01 -0.0972237013
1976-01-01 0.1622659948
1976-02-01 0.0985460176
1976-03-01 -0.0147136495
1976-04-01 -0.0341845577
1976-05-01 -0.1991973859
1976-06-01 -0.1902950192
1976-07-01 -0.0802738946
1976-08-01 0.0015514012
1976-09-01 0.1645207392
1976-10-01 0.0194644347
1976-11-01 0.0244164834
1976-12-01 -0.2030196105
1977-01-01 -0.5765536415
1977-02-01 -0.4675079050
1977-03-01 -0.4041964479
1977-04-01 -0.0704653269
1977-05-01 0.1757229606
1977-06-01 0.2648957399
1977-07-01 0.3814335409
1977-08-01 0.2602055174
1977-09-01 0.2507486279
1977-10-01 0.1215739197
1977-11-01 -0.0299375804
1977-12-01 0.0237739043
1978-01-01 0.2463399180
1978-02-01 0.6904908881
1978-03-01 1.0890102467
1978-04-01 0.9604189275
1978-05-01 0.5030860367
1978-06-01 0.2328618939
1978-07-01 -0.1885163518
1978-08-01 -0.4495623993
1978-09-01 -0.5654479209
1978-10-01 -0.7737662434
1978-11-01 -1.0445092263
1978-12-01 -1.2931346405
1979-01-01 -1.7001018603
1979-02-01 -1.6954325425
1979-03-01 -1.8083289347
1979-04-01 -2.0340800273
1979-05-01 -1.8084022915
1979-06-01 -1.4976822319
1979-07-01 -1.2406546306
1979-08-01 -0.9211659177
1979-09-01 -1.1709310224
1979-10-01 -1.6818466658
1979-11-01 -1.8234083907
1979-12-01 -1.9743484023
1980-01-01 -2.0079708747
1980-02-01 -1.9516903618
1980-03-01 -1.6275131312
1980-04-01 -1.0473204792
1980-05-01 -0.1529044643
1980-06-01 0.6364976913
1980-07-01 0.7519823361
1980-08-01 0.0797028856
1980-09-01 -0.5083615441
1980-10-01 -0.7113002317
1980-11-01 -0.6759597528
1980-12-01 -0.5179213552
1981-01-01 -0.3045440745
1981-02-01 -0.5131092607
1981-03-01 -0.5263988374
1981-04-01 -0.7513523216
1981-05-01 -0.8376217294
1981-06-01 -0.7964142944
1981-07-01 -0.5490980964
1981-08-01 -0.2962704196
1981-09-01 -0.2666887662
1981-10-01 0.2716625859
1981-11-01 0.6842141214
1981-12-01 0.7372209402
1982-01-01 0.6881313029
1982-02-01 0.6503242616
1982-03-01 0.6101478314
1982-04-01 0.5177036150
1982-05-01 0.4079143561
1982-06-01 0.3258907996
1982-07-01 0.9663549102
1982-08-01 1.3297413801
1982-09-01 1.6741944791
1982-10-01 1.7961493077
1982-11-01 1.7214585893
1982-12-01 1.3086722129
1983-01-01 0.7575526368
1983-02-01 0.3162417900
1983-03-01 0.3946568794
1983-04-01 0.2096263452
1983-05-01 0.0873324540
1983-06-01 -0.1183026886
1983-07-01 -0.1962033475
1983-08-01 -0.3482145639
1983-09-01 -0.2310690450
1983-10-01 -0.2695817255
1983-11-01 -0.3091628837
1983-12-01 -0.0794142766
1984-01-01 0.1265899322
1984-02-01 0.2056624320
1984-03-01 0.4470318722
1984-04-01 0.8327121246
1984-05-01 0.7435242765
1984-06-01 0.6522156570
1984-07-01 0.4310581443
1984-08-01 0.5103726701
1984-09-01 0.7670702793
1984-10-01 0.5694526906
1984-11-01 0.9034337579
1984-12-01 0.8750663408
1985-01-01 0.9118625114
1985-02-01 0.8676012616
1985-03-01 0.6514896697
1985-04-01 0.8024082942
1985-05-01 1.0500155235
1985-06-01 1.2633238372
1985-07-01 1.0643136772
1985-08-01 0.9043353429
1985-09-01 0.7619400630
1985-10-01 0.2368471604
1985-11-01 0.2381275007
1985-12-01 0.5901343684
1986-01-01 0.3834147434
1986-02-01 0.6248322051
1986-03-01 0.8730816306
1986-04-01 0.5233140963
1986-05-01 0.1885743216
1986-06-01 -0.1281282965
1986-07-01 -0.2241302753
1986-08-01 -0.3685712396
1986-09-01 -0.4001264596
1986-10-01 -0.5939258797
1986-11-01 -0.6312585977
1986-12-01 -0.8497662138
1987-01-01 -1.3645396309
1987-02-01 -1.0692822309
1987-03-01 -1.0852434953
1987-04-01 -1.0821242730
1987-05-01 -1.0011080364
1987-06-01 -1.1421048479
1987-07-01 -1.0010878813
1987-08-01 -0.7915730198
1987-09-01 -1.0589729383
1987-10-01 -0.8777380675
1987-11-01 -0.7218644228
1987-12-01 -0.6410585482
1988-01-01 -0.4295545986
1988-02-01 -0.2867205326
1988-03-01 -0.3931831264
1988-04-01 -0.4484709745
1988-05-01 -0.4130847212
1988-06-01 -0.4757498418
1988-07-01 -0.4080949333
1988-08-01 -0.3184405881
1988-09-01 -0.3564987511
1988-10-01 -0.0374322798
1988-11-01 -0.2041669962
1988-12-01 -0.2261123822
1989-01-01 -0.2587791812
1989-02-01 -0.3906676993
1989-03-01 -0.4243924842
1989-04-01 -0.2526343779
1989-05-01 0.0116294065
1989-06-01 0.5235359187
1989-07-01 0.7189760669
1989-08-01 0.5345095393
1989-09-01 0.3530617186
1989-10-01 -0.0305987337
1989-11-01 -0.3356425942
1989-12-01 -0.4358269860
1990-01-01 -0.6635605123
1990-02-01 -1.2145058287
1990-03-01 -1.1297698065
1990-04-01 -1.2079051274
1990-05-01 -1.2664820732
1990-06-01 -1.5227452856
1990-07-01 -1.8170618080
1990-08-01 -2.1586493496
1990-09-01 -2.0335340534
1990-10-01 -1.7920085002
1990-11-01 -1.1371889396
1990-12-01 -0.7731919037
1991-01-01 -0.3578355741
1991-02-01 0.3921891692
1991-03-01 0.4791709136
1991-04-01 -0.0888543033
1991-05-01 -0.5223749131
1991-06-01 -0.8248262515
1991-07-01 -1.1139694255
1991-08-01 -1.2695321113
1991-09-01 -1.1635694392
1991-10-01 -0.9530380395
1991-11-01 -0.5437679234
1991-12-01 -0.1280608874
1992-01-01 0.0957667265
1992-02-01 -0.2150523319
1992-03-01 -0.4095530132
1992-04-01 -0.3616775500
1992-05-01 -0.4602222473
1992-06-01 -0.6512417964
1992-07-01 -0.5376354298
1992-08-01 -0.3141369533
1992-09-01 -0.3422495454
1992-10-01 -0.4454854590
1992-11-01 -0.5296835419
1992-12-01 -0.5958469590
1993-01-01 -1.1832382634
1993-02-01 -1.1290616446
1993-03-01 -0.8505772899
1993-04-01 -0.4163618902
1993-05-01 -0.3889010920
1993-06-01 -0.0029030467
1993-07-01 0.2337996911
1993-08-01 0.1803980607
1993-09-01 0.1666787420
1993-10-01 0.0839089359
1993-11-01 0.0922000182
1993-12-01 0.0348871099
1994-01-01 -0.4343855043
1994-02-01 -0.7234830997
1994-03-01 -0.8850277031
1994-04-01 -1.0601695609
1994-05-01 -1.2329685786
1994-06-01 -1.2622317692
1994-07-01 -1.3654694171
1994-08-01 -1.3978422670
1994-09-01 -1.2311356253
1994-10-01 -1.1683206265
1994-11-01 -1.2957696233
1994-12-01 -1.3150866883
1995-01-01 -1.2931450452
1995-02-01 -1.0561158905
1995-03-01 -0.6622780132
1995-04-01 -0.4096129386
1995-05-01 -0.0202775045
1995-06-01 0.2534925933
1995-07-01 0.3287645883
1995-08-01 0.1839219701
1995-09-01 0.0862151099
1995-10-01 0.0281125018
1995-11-01 0.2350999012
1995-12-01 0.1665017934
1996-01-01 0.1266588287
1996-02-01 0.4167238166
1996-03-01 0.3343136373
1996-04-01 0.1029586205
1996-05-01 0.0652562749
1996-06-01 -0.0670444581
1996-07-01 -0.1707965342
1996-08-01 -0.1532994589
1996-09-01 -0.3464408311
1996-10-01 -0.3073578045
1996-11-01 -0.2787121820
1996-12-01 -0.3398507463
1997-01-01 -0.1598447956
1997-02-01 -0.0134064321
1997-03-01 0.1739986662
1997-04-01 0.3340401987
1997-05-01 0.5344037401
1997-06-01 0.4876124489
1997-07-01 0.6680069932
1997-08-01 0.5913139398
1997-09-01 0.4621510816
1997-10-01 0.4949028720
1997-11-01 0.4366488498
1997-12-01 0.7083869103
1998-01-01 0.9905595529
1998-02-01 1.1719397725
1998-03-01 1.2650170640
1998-04-01 1.3713965310
1998-05-01 1.3365909709
1998-06-01 1.3409059669
1998-07-01 1.1566705481
1998-08-01 1.0673445571
1998-09-01 1.0503030472
1998-10-01 1.0921463974
1998-11-01 0.9656313456
1998-12-01 0.7587673270
1999-01-01 0.4770245449
1999-02-01 0.2882568652
1999-03-01 0.2095963133
1999-04-01 -0.0085675485
1999-05-01 0.1148781885
1999-06-01 0.2026450356
1999-07-01 0.0789202513
1999-08-01 -0.1166744892
1999-09-01 -0.0697381468
1999-10-01 0.0190298556
1999-11-01 0.0742604730
1999-12-01 0.1239080560
2000-01-01 -0.0458602649
2000-02-01 -0.0335315196
2000-03-01 -0.2150769241
2000-04-01 -0.0442018273
2000-05-01 -0.0358848557
2000-06-01 -0.0097150176
2000-07-01 0.0489750669
2000-08-01 0.2935460563
2000-09-01 0.2899350382
2000-10-01 0.3608723148
2000-11-01 0.4385292460
2000-12-01 0.3029925354
2001-01-01 0.3839104550
2001-02-01 0.7729233388
2001-03-01 1.0990931849
2001-04-01 1.1743602498
2001-05-01 1.2147900769
2001-06-01 1.2484352199
2001-07-01 1.0971071166
2001-08-01 1.0723425723
2001-09-01 0.9163974939
2001-10-01 1.5886676951
2001-11-01 1.6936496231
2001-12-01 1.5658232784
2002-01-01 1.2559668194
2002-02-01 0.8491998209
2002-03-01 0.1345553757
2002-04-01 -0.3383543977
2002-05-01 -0.3370621551
2002-06-01 -0.2386610421
2002-07-01 -0.1797220709
2002-08-01 -0.0838123533
2002-09-01 0.0524612336
2002-10-01 0.0796707978
2002-11-01 0.2494330922
2002-12-01 0.1631739388
2003-01-01 -0.1258719446
2003-02-01 -0.0991292926
2003-03-01 0.3195641427
2003-04-01 1.0133806081
2003-05-01 1.1477267529
2003-06-01 1.0326613989
2003-07-01 0.7559025079
2003-08-01 0.4132479982
2003-09-01 -0.0765212778
2003-10-01 -0.1050876336
2003-11-01 -0.4432884572
2003-12-01 -0.8577419487
2004-01-01 -1.1165666672
2004-02-01 -1.2474788023
2004-03-01 -1.1685549768
2004-04-01 -1.2274382597
2004-05-01 -1.2115964231
2004-06-01 -1.3258381709
2004-07-01 -0.9463367031
2004-08-01 -0.9679854907
2004-09-01 -0.8880897659
2004-10-01 -0.8627695280
2004-11-01 -0.9485644371
2004-12-01 -0.8193891734
2005-01-01 -1.0053383582
2005-02-01 -0.9167891802
2005-03-01 -0.9412725227
2005-04-01 -0.7720252253
2005-05-01 -0.5235978387
2005-06-01 -0.3771490251
2005-07-01 -0.7995747512
2005-08-01 -1.3912867564
2005-09-01 -1.6379169534
2005-10-01 -1.0363540931
2005-11-01 -0.5595229404
2005-12-01 -0.3060239901
2006-01-01 -0.2492265936
2006-02-01 -0.5262382999
2006-03-01 -0.7903857150
2006-04-01 -1.1332967871
2006-05-01 -1.4141993532
2006-06-01 -1.2195398431
2006-07-01 -1.1211926301
2006-08-01 -0.7056540424
2006-09-01 0.1120826676
2006-10-01 0.4572898148
2006-11-01 0.2885069552
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2009-02-01 1.7750713397
2009-03-01 1.5702798357
2009-04-01 1.5247990379
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2023-02-01 1.7374403224
2023-03-01 1.7704529171
2023-04-01 1.7619062488
2023-05-01 1.7443868822
2023-06-01 1.5470896786
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2023-12-01 1.6471359846
2024-01-01 1.5960905829
2024-02-01 1.5263589696
2024-03-01 1.2676841352
2024-04-01 1.2371649154
2024-05-01 1.3301780963
2024-06-01 1.3562559433
2024-07-01 1.3195038549
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2026-05-01 -1.0468422913
2026-06-01 -0.5725778909
2026-07-01 -0.4710556076
2026-08-01 -0.3419604619

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