Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index
Series ID BBKMLEIX
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Standard Deviations
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-07-01
Last Updated 2026-08-31 7:34 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 0.6402213011
1960-02-01 1.5257079404
1960-03-01 1.9725352670
1960-04-01 2.3006449618
1960-05-01 1.6952828284
1960-06-01 1.4702582975
1960-07-01 1.3283011746
1960-08-01 1.1494424144
1960-09-01 0.8238869239
1960-10-01 0.7414601703
1960-11-01 0.8387115845
1960-12-01 0.6813152600
1961-01-01 0.9137247560
1961-02-01 0.5931085699
1961-03-01 0.2936054039
1961-04-01 -0.2443030895
1961-05-01 -0.3582427650
1961-06-01 -0.5054265331
1961-07-01 -0.9095859476
1961-08-01 -0.7555459949
1961-09-01 -0.4190504228
1961-10-01 0.1425196345
1961-11-01 0.2760673972
1961-12-01 0.2499101779
1962-01-01 0.4466240046
1962-02-01 0.3747509301
1962-03-01 0.5948817008
1962-04-01 0.8809740883
1962-05-01 0.8648502816
1962-06-01 0.6295986637
1962-07-01 0.5560404755
1962-08-01 0.4934929265
1962-09-01 0.2761525109
1962-10-01 0.2201892753
1962-11-01 0.3397427346
1962-12-01 0.1313281978
1963-01-01 -0.0987137480
1963-02-01 -0.1081226090
1963-03-01 0.0960038321
1963-04-01 0.2156066649
1963-05-01 0.3078420418
1963-06-01 0.4518095273
1963-07-01 0.6637660340
1963-08-01 0.5895844105
1963-09-01 0.6341306258
1963-10-01 0.4904739676
1963-11-01 0.4429359956
1963-12-01 0.6309495046
1964-01-01 0.7255150013
1964-02-01 0.9799858930
1964-03-01 0.8056155899
1964-04-01 0.7878356436
1964-05-01 0.7172112402
1964-06-01 0.5967924698
1964-07-01 0.4513725149
1964-08-01 0.3215181205
1964-09-01 0.0552159249
1964-10-01 -0.1088470756
1964-11-01 -0.2954133395
1964-12-01 0.0651889061
1965-01-01 0.1726159206
1965-02-01 0.6885637157
1965-03-01 0.8119308443
1965-04-01 0.9267183171
1965-05-01 1.2685885934
1965-06-01 1.2497359071
1965-07-01 1.6187213455
1965-08-01 2.0222318878
1965-09-01 2.0430054384
1965-10-01 1.8100066713
1965-11-01 1.1910768565
1965-12-01 0.6808147407
1966-01-01 0.1885371080
1966-02-01 -0.1044539797
1966-03-01 -0.0765510267
1966-04-01 -0.1494560875
1966-05-01 -0.1338880876
1966-06-01 0.0995996663
1966-07-01 0.2393872853
1966-08-01 0.2244796528
1966-09-01 0.5531747044
1966-10-01 0.9924068139
1966-11-01 1.6936998562
1966-12-01 1.8673986660
1967-01-01 2.2695863084
1967-02-01 1.9900565454
1967-03-01 1.9575456369
1967-04-01 1.9512831879
1967-05-01 1.6824532733
1967-06-01 1.3642266098
1967-07-01 1.1267751257
1967-08-01 0.7784264403
1967-09-01 0.7088915730
1967-10-01 0.4498546498
1967-11-01 0.4781272330
1967-12-01 0.8068723924
1968-01-01 1.2421762146
1968-02-01 1.6270449091
1968-03-01 1.6324711056
1968-04-01 1.3880210587
1968-05-01 1.3192766920
1968-06-01 1.1835594552
1968-07-01 0.9757583203
1968-08-01 0.8751153890
1968-09-01 0.4237853051
1968-10-01 0.1031077821
1968-11-01 0.2261005125
1968-12-01 0.3125942921
1969-01-01 0.5063446374
1969-02-01 0.2663616887
1969-03-01 -0.0896150639
1969-04-01 -0.0967146543
1969-05-01 -0.0761600975
1969-06-01 -0.2897367135
1969-07-01 -0.3455397159
1969-08-01 -0.1011336861
1969-09-01 -0.1197454008
1969-10-01 -0.0585027812
1969-11-01 0.1716833429
1969-12-01 0.2738476462
1970-01-01 0.3622824904
1970-02-01 0.5926360036
1970-03-01 0.6964698775
1970-04-01 0.7803114334
1970-05-01 0.8092101817
1970-06-01 1.0079741320
1970-07-01 1.3048368810
1970-08-01 1.3818218934
1970-09-01 1.1953157455
1970-10-01 1.0127779692
1970-11-01 0.8700273881
1970-12-01 0.8688213382
1971-01-01 1.0652028163
1971-02-01 0.8708915275
1971-03-01 0.8393714724
1971-04-01 0.7156804561
1971-05-01 0.3907817748
1971-06-01 0.1689893731
1971-07-01 0.1658126815
1971-08-01 0.0721435565
1971-09-01 -0.1558351881
1971-10-01 -0.1663420301
1971-11-01 0.1120631831
1971-12-01 0.5625183525
1972-01-01 0.7833636066
1972-02-01 0.7268622481
1972-03-01 0.8803154527
1972-04-01 0.6091320064
1972-05-01 0.4573572096
1972-06-01 0.3939238256
1972-07-01 0.2511733194
1972-08-01 0.1015308781
1972-09-01 -0.0340328746
1972-10-01 -0.0575851621
1972-11-01 -0.5145384259
1972-12-01 -0.5661403847
1973-01-01 -0.7497199325
1973-02-01 -1.0735909864
1973-03-01 -1.3577035864
1973-04-01 -1.6116521245
1973-05-01 -1.6104156698
1973-06-01 -1.7316275978
1973-07-01 -1.9608149821
1973-08-01 -2.6060291164
1973-09-01 -2.3860442861
1973-10-01 -2.6954807741
1973-11-01 -2.6556450115
1973-12-01 -2.8366989728
1974-01-01 -2.5120452174
1974-02-01 -1.9950671401
1974-03-01 -1.5238388167
1974-04-01 -1.1345434472
1974-05-01 -0.8427340676
1974-06-01 -0.7406181459
1974-07-01 -0.6935926657
1974-08-01 -0.5090920435
1974-09-01 -0.2375853418
1974-10-01 0.4874897918
1974-11-01 1.2564295158
1974-12-01 2.2635884769
1975-01-01 2.3006114394
1975-02-01 2.2890301211
1975-03-01 2.1840019686
1975-04-01 1.7236358121
1975-05-01 1.3962860060
1975-06-01 0.5067056421
1975-07-01 0.0279539390
1975-08-01 -0.0777845510
1975-09-01 -0.2865587965
1975-10-01 -0.1351348680
1975-11-01 -0.0721793943
1975-12-01 -0.0973964157
1976-01-01 0.1574677820
1976-02-01 0.0928075991
1976-03-01 -0.0183665860
1976-04-01 -0.0372304634
1976-05-01 -0.1997977331
1976-06-01 -0.1897935464
1976-07-01 -0.0815217330
1976-08-01 -0.0016508483
1976-09-01 0.1591547655
1976-10-01 0.0165235762
1976-11-01 0.0208269580
1976-12-01 -0.2039404308
1977-01-01 -0.5749096815
1977-02-01 -0.4659465286
1977-03-01 -0.4044429047
1977-04-01 -0.0763366157
1977-05-01 0.1669169514
1977-06-01 0.2572028187
1977-07-01 0.3739867721
1977-08-01 0.2559254319
1977-09-01 0.2471193408
1977-10-01 0.1207971960
1977-11-01 -0.0279122249
1977-12-01 0.0245135913
1978-01-01 0.2430396816
1978-02-01 0.6851042890
1978-03-01 1.0783555960
1978-04-01 0.9508566223
1978-05-01 0.4977145290
1978-06-01 0.2282442736
1978-07-01 -0.1912010681
1978-08-01 -0.4511363722
1978-09-01 -0.5695361194
1978-10-01 -0.7777807016
1978-11-01 -1.0469505921
1978-12-01 -1.2955837096
1979-01-01 -1.7002542195
1979-02-01 -1.6967321277
1979-03-01 -1.8075908662
1979-04-01 -2.0309968426
1979-05-01 -1.8049827048
1979-06-01 -1.4973159302
1979-07-01 -1.2426259693
1979-08-01 -0.9265406701
1979-09-01 -1.1733935842
1979-10-01 -1.6766515234
1979-11-01 -1.8177589762
1979-12-01 -1.9666931319
1980-01-01 -1.9969492450
1980-02-01 -1.9394332375
1980-03-01 -1.6161775557
1980-04-01 -1.0385695835
1980-05-01 -0.1525386925
1980-06-01 0.6281175921
1980-07-01 0.7425315593
1980-08-01 0.0786377729
1980-09-01 -0.5024103017
1980-10-01 -0.7042489567
1980-11-01 -0.6707621664
1980-12-01 -0.5156015457
1981-01-01 -0.3056164003
1981-02-01 -0.5117147748
1981-03-01 -0.5253068206
1981-04-01 -0.7465768430
1981-05-01 -0.8311417567
1981-06-01 -0.7878552826
1981-07-01 -0.5408717175
1981-08-01 -0.2881766287
1981-09-01 -0.2539676732
1981-10-01 0.2795671971
1981-11-01 0.6895739368
1981-12-01 0.7452704673
1982-01-01 0.6983591030
1982-02-01 0.6675695707
1982-03-01 0.6267093846
1982-04-01 0.5364178172
1982-05-01 0.4292209349
1982-06-01 0.3500967037
1982-07-01 0.9823207880
1982-08-01 1.3411988553
1982-09-01 1.6824423879
1982-10-01 1.8015825141
1982-11-01 1.7246490479
1982-12-01 1.3133115200
1983-01-01 0.7659538955
1983-02-01 0.3265240806
1983-03-01 0.4011569644
1983-04-01 0.2155899006
1983-05-01 0.0926732414
1983-06-01 -0.1117959342
1983-07-01 -0.1917106038
1983-08-01 -0.3432510177
1983-09-01 -0.2282392143
1983-10-01 -0.2664085498
1983-11-01 -0.3039507088
1983-12-01 -0.0774658017
1984-01-01 0.1287643106
1984-02-01 0.2083737121
1984-03-01 0.4481702287
1984-04-01 0.8316971784
1984-05-01 0.7464708978
1984-06-01 0.6576416926
1984-07-01 0.4396848620
1984-08-01 0.5198897364
1984-09-01 0.7740737871
1984-10-01 0.5815986962
1984-11-01 0.9114583053
1984-12-01 0.8835541085
1985-01-01 0.9187816730
1985-02-01 0.8762620676
1985-03-01 0.6647593524
1985-04-01 0.8131773442
1985-05-01 1.0571457372
1985-06-01 1.2657291037
1985-07-01 1.0699043224
1985-08-01 0.9118230661
1985-09-01 0.7696609507
1985-10-01 0.2512119432
1985-11-01 0.2516191287
1985-12-01 0.5969307269
1986-01-01 0.3944530760
1986-02-01 0.6297578429
1986-03-01 0.8724369842
1986-04-01 0.5272586144
1986-05-01 0.1955384042
1986-06-01 -0.1189848855
1986-07-01 -0.2162415090
1986-08-01 -0.3614307697
1986-09-01 -0.3952222215
1986-10-01 -0.5904815601
1986-11-01 -0.6307467969
1986-12-01 -0.8471200200
1987-01-01 -1.3574246033
1987-02-01 -1.0662926879
1987-03-01 -1.0840787304
1987-04-01 -1.0809636101
1987-05-01 -1.0020855656
1987-06-01 -1.1407889887
1987-07-01 -1.0019168454
1987-08-01 -0.7958997743
1987-09-01 -1.0581434400
1987-10-01 -0.8786633007
1987-11-01 -0.7235028984
1987-12-01 -0.6408552254
1988-01-01 -0.4310610024
1988-02-01 -0.2883031238
1988-03-01 -0.3916247153
1988-04-01 -0.4463916247
1988-05-01 -0.4116507273
1988-06-01 -0.4726646979
1988-07-01 -0.4056912671
1988-08-01 -0.3169489590
1988-09-01 -0.3532399766
1988-10-01 -0.0384156901
1988-11-01 -0.2020756010
1988-12-01 -0.2239123696
1989-01-01 -0.2563826642
1989-02-01 -0.3864177395
1989-03-01 -0.4164127699
1989-04-01 -0.2436215272
1989-05-01 0.0183425391
1989-06-01 0.5239824487
1989-07-01 0.7161993900
1989-08-01 0.5351222600
1989-09-01 0.3530790905
1989-10-01 -0.0277533885
1989-11-01 -0.3300131919
1989-12-01 -0.4330020199
1990-01-01 -0.6612009938
1990-02-01 -1.2071543453
1990-03-01 -1.1284284291
1990-04-01 -1.2088955356
1990-05-01 -1.2676652299
1990-06-01 -1.5195140426
1990-07-01 -1.8093090769
1990-08-01 -2.1440948615
1990-09-01 -2.0195464550
1990-10-01 -1.7789338403
1990-11-01 -1.1315634944
1990-12-01 -0.7695984548
1991-01-01 -0.3583590004
1991-02-01 0.3830333882
1991-03-01 0.4692349017
1991-04-01 -0.0904269452
1991-05-01 -0.5201017517
1991-06-01 -0.8210447193
1991-07-01 -1.1076472812
1991-08-01 -1.2619835863
1991-09-01 -1.1566783586
1991-10-01 -0.9475275048
1991-11-01 -0.5424302032
1991-12-01 -0.1315600504
1992-01-01 0.0913339625
1992-02-01 -0.2150895906
1992-03-01 -0.4077117799
1992-04-01 -0.3613403722
1992-05-01 -0.4584954490
1992-06-01 -0.6460099435
1992-07-01 -0.5336336857
1992-08-01 -0.3142224038
1992-09-01 -0.3415550248
1992-10-01 -0.4441651690
1992-11-01 -0.5290257878
1992-12-01 -0.5955011713
1993-01-01 -1.1739541401
1993-02-01 -1.1200614419
1993-03-01 -0.8436935960
1993-04-01 -0.4123092514
1993-05-01 -0.3822951704
1993-06-01 -0.0013325382
1993-07-01 0.2327157061
1993-08-01 0.1801536034
1993-09-01 0.1660421738
1993-10-01 0.0830902322
1993-11-01 0.0883905433
1993-12-01 0.0290717686
1994-01-01 -0.4362290942
1994-02-01 -0.7230767327
1994-03-01 -0.8839028237
1994-04-01 -1.0608628134
1994-05-01 -1.2341421881
1994-06-01 -1.2633661480
1994-07-01 -1.3653890645
1994-08-01 -1.3968063518
1994-09-01 -1.2335493447
1994-10-01 -1.1720227446
1994-11-01 -1.2970101895
1994-12-01 -1.3147107990
1995-01-01 -1.2914558478
1995-02-01 -1.0545013270
1995-03-01 -0.6612573435
1995-04-01 -0.4077074307
1995-05-01 -0.0204412020
1995-06-01 0.2514769820
1995-07-01 0.3264994945
1995-08-01 0.1867361811
1995-09-01 0.0916453058
1995-10-01 0.0346297005
1995-11-01 0.2391877989
1995-12-01 0.1716404340
1996-01-01 0.1307005923
1996-02-01 0.4174512583
1996-03-01 0.3352619266
1996-04-01 0.1059366327
1996-05-01 0.0675500544
1996-06-01 -0.0642374234
1996-07-01 -0.1669157583
1996-08-01 -0.1495107499
1996-09-01 -0.3390877703
1996-10-01 -0.3010787450
1996-11-01 -0.2731156494
1996-12-01 -0.3335518982
1997-01-01 -0.1558153217
1997-02-01 -0.0092620293
1997-03-01 0.1762892311
1997-04-01 0.3347080861
1997-05-01 0.5338139482
1997-06-01 0.4908183174
1997-07-01 0.6695832809
1997-08-01 0.5949754703
1997-09-01 0.4687879456
1997-10-01 0.5015480384
1997-11-01 0.4459052478
1997-12-01 0.7156103970
1998-01-01 0.9957857679
1998-02-01 1.1762638330
1998-03-01 1.2687422718
1998-04-01 1.3748581255
1998-05-01 1.3418922791
1998-06-01 1.3454293843
1998-07-01 1.1630588021
1998-08-01 1.0745831177
1998-09-01 1.0570299104
1998-10-01 1.0972318450
1998-11-01 0.9698581258
1998-12-01 0.7633428381
1999-01-01 0.4826485705
1999-02-01 0.2947105628
1999-03-01 0.2146470663
1999-04-01 -0.0015372715
1999-05-01 0.1183112952
1999-06-01 0.2023372105
1999-07-01 0.0788912887
1999-08-01 -0.1140023981
1999-09-01 -0.0681641484
1999-10-01 0.0201598734
1999-11-01 0.0750966117
1999-12-01 0.1242027407
2000-01-01 -0.0427051591
2000-02-01 -0.0301018574
2000-03-01 -0.2072753190
2000-04-01 -0.0394138638
2000-05-01 -0.0297823055
2000-06-01 -0.0017421405
2000-07-01 0.0569386994
2000-08-01 0.3002388549
2000-09-01 0.2994800892
2000-10-01 0.3710860693
2000-11-01 0.4497738576
2000-12-01 0.3196597029
2001-01-01 0.4020158551
2001-02-01 0.7873535824
2001-03-01 1.1099776361
2001-04-01 1.1847389106
2001-05-01 1.2256609432
2001-06-01 1.2594679937
2001-07-01 1.1108602583
2001-08-01 1.0867141877
2001-09-01 0.9340050804
2001-10-01 1.5961602853
2001-11-01 1.6978213680
2001-12-01 1.5691667713
2002-01-01 1.2613508793
2002-02-01 0.8555452150
2002-03-01 0.1455609956
2002-04-01 -0.3253007411
2002-05-01 -0.3279966530
2002-06-01 -0.2329274441
2002-07-01 -0.1758385072
2002-08-01 -0.0818987348
2002-09-01 0.0523967269
2002-10-01 0.0803447093
2002-11-01 0.2493386335
2002-12-01 0.1649414670
2003-01-01 -0.1166848812
2003-02-01 -0.0906364211
2003-03-01 0.3216594861
2003-04-01 1.0038766805
2003-05-01 1.1365210101
2003-06-01 1.0235624826
2003-07-01 0.7500718960
2003-08-01 0.4095606272
2003-09-01 -0.0769471313
2003-10-01 -0.1107875976
2003-11-01 -0.4477468486
2003-12-01 -0.8586635039
2004-01-01 -1.1157643455
2004-02-01 -1.2474970827
2004-03-01 -1.1720620798
2004-04-01 -1.2331028441
2004-05-01 -1.2185435298
2004-06-01 -1.3316495441
2004-07-01 -0.9567869760
2004-08-01 -0.9763829115
2004-09-01 -0.8977147589
2004-10-01 -0.8726332419
2004-11-01 -0.9585713902
2004-12-01 -0.8312340356
2005-01-01 -1.0146474904
2005-02-01 -0.9243778959
2005-03-01 -0.9462896342
2005-04-01 -0.7775523985
2005-05-01 -0.5315092569
2005-06-01 -0.3860495678
2005-07-01 -0.8020926595
2005-08-01 -1.3854913852
2005-09-01 -1.6288703404
2005-10-01 -1.0362475928
2005-11-01 -0.5650581277
2005-12-01 -0.3126323656
2006-01-01 -0.2552948464
2006-02-01 -0.5301057644
2006-03-01 -0.7925777074
2006-04-01 -1.1332099728
2006-05-01 -1.4109265885
2006-06-01 -1.2200878067
2006-07-01 -1.1215759118
2006-08-01 -0.7096998262
2006-09-01 0.0975322046
2006-10-01 0.4404509961
2006-11-01 0.2768752595
2006-12-01 -0.0312685234
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2008-11-01 2.5799287732
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2009-02-01 1.7750979473
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2023-02-01 1.7751304000
2023-03-01 1.8406974073
2023-04-01 1.8478749952
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2024-02-01 1.4923441536
2024-03-01 1.2621234063
2024-04-01 1.2566522417
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2026-04-01 -1.3071424662
2026-05-01 -1.1404747879
2026-06-01 -0.6921257733
2026-07-01 -0.6019294903

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