Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index
Series ID BBKMLEIX
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Standard Deviations
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-05-01
Last Updated 2026-06-29 7:32 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 0.64436510142239460000
1960-02-01 1.51353286003529770000
1960-03-01 1.95459219375074130000
1960-04-01 2.27722902268074720000
1960-05-01 1.68767291791306470000
1960-06-01 1.46388069431855650000
1960-07-01 1.31941349831725160000
1960-08-01 1.13910875764990440000
1960-09-01 0.81642334145405390000
1960-10-01 0.73002231008629260000
1960-11-01 0.82107644198936200000
1960-12-01 0.66267482379540820000
1961-01-01 0.88148598364223710000
1961-02-01 0.56201204444454120000
1961-03-01 0.26291637101187440000
1961-04-01 -0.26799181006558465000
1961-05-01 -0.38595688847882670000
1961-06-01 -0.53430262170042850000
1961-07-01 -0.92987826566521310000
1961-08-01 -0.77881217171592400000
1961-09-01 -0.44623136218396490000
1961-10-01 0.10630666915670975000
1961-11-01 0.24228520084206062000
1961-12-01 0.22379136048441320000
1962-01-01 0.42108575561147670000
1962-02-01 0.35644339455235674000
1962-03-01 0.57290678776174600000
1962-04-01 0.85333057961286930000
1962-05-01 0.83896935175098620000
1962-06-01 0.60968393807663720000
1962-07-01 0.53559913115298730000
1962-08-01 0.47240420881676710000
1962-09-01 0.25700282391261130000
1962-10-01 0.19862708568429335000
1962-11-01 0.31274173755724750000
1962-12-01 0.10901438753259846000
1963-01-01 -0.11518848284183236000
1963-02-01 -0.12424675819616356000
1963-03-01 0.07572265753408866000
1963-04-01 0.19488167615073146000
1963-05-01 0.28768413600632403000
1963-06-01 0.43081849877543410000
1963-07-01 0.64029537125744820000
1963-08-01 0.57089763004750370000
1963-09-01 0.61561628700636550000
1963-10-01 0.47738564932774530000
1963-11-01 0.43247280415470885000
1963-12-01 0.61611242942114230000
1964-01-01 0.70993658587694140000
1964-02-01 0.95880702262634620000
1964-03-01 0.79040809783207340000
1964-04-01 0.77231122132928330000
1964-05-01 0.70076990743887820000
1964-06-01 0.57969832569967590000
1964-07-01 0.43507998039814760000
1964-08-01 0.30607333502148415000
1964-09-01 0.04469398040834798000
1964-10-01 -0.11643440945531064000
1964-11-01 -0.29750666244840457000
1964-12-01 0.05568545333506232000
1965-01-01 0.16664858857888631000
1965-02-01 0.67519121634593170000
1965-03-01 0.80302881506921700000
1965-04-01 0.92271495860803390000
1965-05-01 1.26208793612700520000
1965-06-01 1.25000118658245920000
1965-07-01 1.61308990628902900000
1965-08-01 2.00732746045617150000
1965-09-01 2.02632170341284960000
1965-10-01 1.79478058283111300000
1965-11-01 1.18561731767250220000
1965-12-01 0.68043571737916110000
1966-01-01 0.19351454827819614000
1966-02-01 -0.09777047430669030000
1966-03-01 -0.07353594348310566000
1966-04-01 -0.14318106367116650000
1966-05-01 -0.12485255374982068000
1966-06-01 0.10583691923075188000
1966-07-01 0.24730237704859565000
1966-08-01 0.24100164355481626000
1966-09-01 0.57094744948566010000
1966-10-01 1.00958934784493050000
1966-11-01 1.70124222835927000000
1966-12-01 1.87770096412994510000
1967-01-01 2.27218623136829520000
1967-02-01 2.00175143164820660000
1967-03-01 1.96805659851145900000
1967-04-01 1.95822997824059190000
1967-05-01 1.69148894718510110000
1967-06-01 1.37595786318646500000
1967-07-01 1.13919074128509830000
1967-08-01 0.79547960864808120000
1967-09-01 0.72319469100537810000
1967-10-01 0.46985735642657700000
1967-11-01 0.49873499762244344000
1967-12-01 0.82227966555692880000
1968-01-01 1.25047783145522600000
1968-02-01 1.62913778296959390000
1968-03-01 1.63662890930767710000
1968-04-01 1.39985361113716400000
1968-05-01 1.33029581992954050000
1968-06-01 1.19343853506246920000
1968-07-01 0.98546879906048470000
1968-08-01 0.88116474971133560000
1968-09-01 0.43641946126768220000
1968-10-01 0.12046915359152180000
1968-11-01 0.23801247420973487000
1968-12-01 0.32155963715901380000
1969-01-01 0.50829562955304120000
1969-02-01 0.27315558705610027000
1969-03-01 -0.07565509430087117000
1969-04-01 -0.08550733551706388000
1969-05-01 -0.06750633403036513000
1969-06-01 -0.27548776017491670000
1969-07-01 -0.32959619604556410000
1969-08-01 -0.09092489430999008000
1969-09-01 -0.10708493211149805000
1969-10-01 -0.04388942603183141500
1969-11-01 0.18382913564537950000
1969-12-01 0.28805290616813944000
1970-01-01 0.37812586143397850000
1970-02-01 0.60616235238338470000
1970-03-01 0.71136883897622850000
1970-04-01 0.79624127051039260000
1970-05-01 0.82692923070133930000
1970-06-01 1.02343221461105730000
1970-07-01 1.31430063433305500000
1970-08-01 1.38945681809509640000
1970-09-01 1.20681663549049970000
1970-10-01 1.02762218531750000000
1970-11-01 0.88698898891592990000
1970-12-01 0.88354220529813310000
1971-01-01 1.07241908310567480000
1971-02-01 0.88109960389860660000
1971-03-01 0.84679727150453180000
1971-04-01 0.72232812664197740000
1971-05-01 0.40251806407435314000
1971-06-01 0.18272449037320580000
1971-07-01 0.17642780073577521000
1971-08-01 0.08304458832692486000
1971-09-01 -0.13967243915135388000
1971-10-01 -0.14972414825907518000
1971-11-01 0.12403074037237763000
1971-12-01 0.56648151596778670000
1972-01-01 0.78590251386581160000
1972-02-01 0.73473883626587400000
1972-03-01 0.88486380992403090000
1972-04-01 0.62087256166191170000
1972-05-01 0.47047842987279886000
1972-06-01 0.40439442862088390000
1972-07-01 0.26014001304217677000
1972-08-01 0.10904156784752136000
1972-09-01 -0.02871432959336706400
1972-10-01 -0.05801930436412569000
1972-11-01 -0.50797029289824220000
1972-12-01 -0.56455927441758040000
1973-01-01 -0.74918828077060120000
1973-02-01 -1.07073976303030750000
1973-03-01 -1.35460529552091510000
1973-04-01 -1.60875785214971410000
1973-05-01 -1.61519202959153190000
1973-06-01 -1.74019401833235480000
1973-07-01 -1.97045745892634500000
1973-08-01 -2.60300005725960800000
1973-09-01 -2.39393098244781100000
1973-10-01 -2.69582699109938900000
1973-11-01 -2.65680121468194100000
1973-12-01 -2.82890676639313700000
1974-01-01 -2.50717182653767350000
1974-02-01 -1.99556395391826200000
1974-03-01 -1.52648461392352500000
1974-04-01 -1.13676201740567980000
1974-05-01 -0.84219748141300800000
1974-06-01 -0.73240311472088910000
1974-07-01 -0.67577830368242340000
1974-08-01 -0.48392611234314200000
1974-09-01 -0.20394158047623318000
1974-10-01 0.51714907422184220000
1974-11-01 1.27949161767699810000
1974-12-01 2.26857129812245130000
1975-01-01 2.30892247684745880000
1975-02-01 2.29661452287773000000
1975-03-01 2.18934326836546300000
1975-04-01 1.73133843081973370000
1975-05-01 1.39926624432783960000
1975-06-01 0.52165235512790520000
1975-07-01 0.04461597378499757000
1975-08-01 -0.06668352941637781000
1975-09-01 -0.27498999920281675000
1975-10-01 -0.13114527290413436000
1975-11-01 -0.07137171056535842000
1975-12-01 -0.09513726376423973000
1976-01-01 0.15366089147381298000
1976-02-01 0.09195391900119053000
1976-03-01 -0.01563960372748506400
1976-04-01 -0.03386200267289800000
1976-05-01 -0.19204177673005840000
1976-06-01 -0.18248257671856350000
1976-07-01 -0.07683944546634017000
1976-08-01 0.00031454124163385794
1976-09-01 0.15610465669379350000
1976-10-01 0.01595211309711060800
1976-11-01 0.01731042613709554700
1976-12-01 -0.20401508170315938000
1977-01-01 -0.56551798855758560000
1977-02-01 -0.45926118997790266000
1977-03-01 -0.39647248970981114000
1977-04-01 -0.07314999085996998000
1977-05-01 0.16805633966164293000
1977-06-01 0.25995124419382230000
1977-07-01 0.37556466594995586000
1977-08-01 0.26167949252162315000
1977-09-01 0.25249350519961333000
1977-10-01 0.12912157941630234000
1977-11-01 -0.01391098955290934500
1977-12-01 0.03998370247020795000
1978-01-01 0.25603377544780400000
1978-02-01 0.68793892916029900000
1978-03-01 1.07099826673119550000
1978-04-01 0.94531860391538010000
1978-05-01 0.49949372981142875000
1978-06-01 0.22932320729022873000
1978-07-01 -0.18739625740267250000
1978-08-01 -0.44911081860702630000
1978-09-01 -0.57273809782010180000
1978-10-01 -0.78336148158477900000
1978-11-01 -1.05294210594845050000
1978-12-01 -1.30224206174494330000
1979-01-01 -1.70172652023463940000
1979-02-01 -1.70476782968201100000
1979-03-01 -1.81764388898453630000
1979-04-01 -2.03635659659823660000
1979-05-01 -1.81536466516725350000
1979-06-01 -1.51332605226507900000
1979-07-01 -1.26309458094632570000
1979-08-01 -0.95610274643166000000
1979-09-01 -1.19733438922238600000
1979-10-01 -1.68848466192373810000
1979-11-01 -1.82765483267350100000
1979-12-01 -1.97200682839571530000
1980-01-01 -1.99838729331363640000
1980-02-01 -1.93574643913315740000
1980-03-01 -1.61225430975170550000
1980-04-01 -1.04057391786560000000
1980-05-01 -0.17082722679623533000
1980-06-01 0.59359175711519090000
1980-07-01 0.70624090357519740000
1980-08-01 0.05907090956356378400
1980-09-01 -0.50920178314244260000
1980-10-01 -0.70825870157308280000
1980-11-01 -0.67602182251825200000
1980-12-01 -0.52460229738296970000
1981-01-01 -0.32016486437047426000
1981-02-01 -0.52018005970974040000
1981-03-01 -0.53438915898803510000
1981-04-01 -0.75001596185764930000
1981-05-01 -0.83052681814852280000
1981-06-01 -0.78562318898668830000
1981-07-01 -0.54048724646632700000
1981-08-01 -0.28889322405922080000
1981-09-01 -0.24856405449262380000
1981-10-01 0.27641483728252380000
1981-11-01 0.67956393020849960000
1981-12-01 0.73607904743141270000
1982-01-01 0.69147650880308100000
1982-02-01 0.66248388766677480000
1982-03-01 0.62415422354374920000
1982-04-01 0.53848568999068540000
1982-05-01 0.43567892015617476000
1982-06-01 0.36215908752032405000
1982-07-01 0.98003685976570780000
1982-08-01 1.33271183805217270000
1982-09-01 1.66657293705963340000
1982-10-01 1.78134703263597440000
1982-11-01 1.70188420462532530000
1982-12-01 1.29569851132275460000
1983-01-01 0.75564004807618090000
1983-02-01 0.32159802083092365000
1983-03-01 0.38775122413626940000
1983-04-01 0.20215175692437320000
1983-05-01 0.07703839897727148000
1983-06-01 -0.12555338489879310000
1983-07-01 -0.20504125978182720000
1983-08-01 -0.35302979211799373000
1983-09-01 -0.24164270269100918000
1983-10-01 -0.27798179244228940000
1983-11-01 -0.31150961967394950000
1983-12-01 -0.08700832367663787000
1984-01-01 0.11929233392401423000
1984-02-01 0.20353314830859906000
1984-03-01 0.44293826589868260000
1984-04-01 0.81993111565818890000
1984-05-01 0.73975863854659740000
1984-06-01 0.65452471945941950000
1984-07-01 0.44424494368080714000
1984-08-01 0.52259780328663990000
1984-09-01 0.76895654286651430000
1984-10-01 0.58278203310640100000
1984-11-01 0.90363791975630270000
1984-12-01 0.87754993929551300000
1985-01-01 0.91158123431251370000
1985-02-01 0.87023098639302440000
1985-03-01 0.66502229123965810000
1985-04-01 0.80987206794614090000
1985-05-01 1.04814220681989530000
1985-06-01 1.25170820107191630000
1985-07-01 1.05960923815460380000
1985-08-01 0.90216732081904180000
1985-09-01 0.75991194413389020000
1985-10-01 0.25279632747443265000
1985-11-01 0.25034024324274134000
1985-12-01 0.58425873144640230000
1986-01-01 0.38786804892210147000
1986-02-01 0.61582519625829460000
1986-03-01 0.84952976706833640000
1986-04-01 0.50960344124207250000
1986-05-01 0.18120203037094426000
1986-06-01 -0.13068375751051378000
1986-07-01 -0.23168008824109290000
1986-08-01 -0.37908823858068663000
1986-09-01 -0.41771457311365073000
1986-10-01 -0.61150244246829950000
1986-11-01 -0.65586509558126970000
1986-12-01 -0.87073389144116680000
1987-01-01 -1.36862297801908370000
1987-02-01 -1.08887315092979200000
1987-03-01 -1.10619183756030440000
1987-04-01 -1.10286201591319430000
1987-05-01 -1.02565938968386620000
1987-06-01 -1.15969856872032700000
1987-07-01 -1.02349012929666650000
1987-08-01 -0.82103725444444960000
1987-09-01 -1.07224065160384940000
1987-10-01 -0.89407802512470020000
1987-11-01 -0.74005873118038710000
1987-12-01 -0.65596896709939670000
1988-01-01 -0.44920942390182445000
1988-02-01 -0.30889783279242010000
1988-03-01 -0.40810460223259410000
1988-04-01 -0.45995007322244735000
1988-05-01 -0.42558889997110660000
1988-06-01 -0.48369989764167460000
1988-07-01 -0.41715563943412590000
1988-08-01 -0.32918092202826704000
1988-09-01 -0.36327666200588593000
1988-10-01 -0.05636814126974121000
1988-11-01 -0.21358488198612763000
1988-12-01 -0.23392965236339341000
1989-01-01 -0.26382282175895017000
1989-02-01 -0.38882666037192637000
1989-03-01 -0.41610519941327860000
1989-04-01 -0.24526080856679783000
1989-05-01 0.01392439744494655700
1989-06-01 0.50924955889486570000
1989-07-01 0.69691193469922360000
1989-08-01 0.51841424934221460000
1989-09-01 0.33699892448012380000
1989-10-01 -0.03978626703503558600
1989-11-01 -0.34134256208880986000
1989-12-01 -0.44981353802813970000
1990-01-01 -0.67975493351234440000
1990-02-01 -1.21707010757804410000
1990-03-01 -1.14615088427400340000
1990-04-01 -1.22915074615622880000
1990-05-01 -1.29156281417194260000
1990-06-01 -1.54185731866143970000
1990-07-01 -1.82702894206554010000
1990-08-01 -2.15321468340436100000
1990-09-01 -2.02916354506328600000
1990-10-01 -1.78845889274364160000
1990-11-01 -1.14996385079589000000
1990-12-01 -0.78798190822701720000
1991-01-01 -0.37893753954472903000
1991-02-01 0.34676686688778160000
1991-03-01 0.43183213430376090000
1991-04-01 -0.11497679437245761000
1991-05-01 -0.53825486412676690000
1991-06-01 -0.83596745022238250000
1991-07-01 -1.11866654206579290000
1991-08-01 -1.26983052698933930000
1991-09-01 -1.16565355515888470000
1991-10-01 -0.95861532964850680000
1991-11-01 -0.55974469592091890000
1991-12-01 -0.15539460632231380000
1992-01-01 0.06411253563501443000
1992-02-01 -0.23226920788018730000
1992-03-01 -0.41937680654125610000
1992-04-01 -0.37535919573387180000
1992-05-01 -0.47056288479843540000
1992-06-01 -0.65309455734216270000
1992-07-01 -0.54420001898084390000
1992-08-01 -0.33106880088242086000
1992-09-01 -0.35831676463617920000
1992-10-01 -0.45916502885512610000
1992-11-01 -0.54314795885359490000
1992-12-01 -0.61022034312585530000
1993-01-01 -1.17355563186369400000
1993-02-01 -1.11984786018681960000
1993-03-01 -0.84750983649245610000
1993-04-01 -0.42529680208219495000
1993-05-01 -0.39030926298159710000
1993-06-01 -0.01536506280559108000
1993-07-01 0.21533134705704532000
1993-08-01 0.16717565219044228000
1993-09-01 0.15387790011728505000
1993-10-01 0.07262735108786034000
1993-11-01 0.07420985622134134000
1993-12-01 0.01192890485667703500
1994-01-01 -0.44622335389338830000
1994-02-01 -0.73201131833348270000
1994-03-01 -0.89497437596171760000
1994-04-01 -1.07249114359295380000
1994-05-01 -1.24463852294992240000
1994-06-01 -1.27605469068301570000
1994-07-01 -1.37723967836962920000
1994-08-01 -1.40851947965223050000
1994-09-01 -1.24892775441186380000
1994-10-01 -1.18816690427736240000
1994-11-01 -1.30808321021387130000
1994-12-01 -1.32204457775425620000
1995-01-01 -1.29365169679021140000
1995-02-01 -1.05635047269259470000
1995-03-01 -0.66691396276945160000
1995-04-01 -0.41344689903730270000
1995-05-01 -0.03102355108068273800
1995-06-01 0.23853979424499910000
1995-07-01 0.31494856380250230000
1995-08-01 0.18035175634824072000
1995-09-01 0.08852350522193828000
1995-10-01 0.03377318085411024000
1995-11-01 0.23166644839196263000
1995-12-01 0.16601241014045173000
1996-01-01 0.12703954781678330000
1996-02-01 0.40498433624710410000
1996-03-01 0.32332816174933480000
1996-04-01 0.09857363116417982000
1996-05-01 0.05880158331952968500
1996-06-01 -0.07134613927098807000
1996-07-01 -0.17292995284820067000
1996-08-01 -0.15831958890635783000
1996-09-01 -0.34418948393374950000
1996-10-01 -0.30702030356002270000
1996-11-01 -0.27943507445062005000
1996-12-01 -0.33681083058570620000
1997-01-01 -0.16241339562184295000
1997-02-01 -0.01544007056412588700
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