Federal Reserve Economic Data

Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index
Series ID BBKMLEIX
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Standard Deviations
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2025-09-01
Last Updated 2026-01-05 7:32 AM CST
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 0.6869586931685299000
1960-02-01 1.5039872888242893000
1960-03-01 1.9267773922263178000
1960-04-01 2.2252305180799710000
1960-05-01 1.6877114798884065000
1960-06-01 1.4740783165325760000
1960-07-01 1.3298973061991313000
1960-08-01 1.1544799236996317000
1960-09-01 0.8447001577389424000
1960-10-01 0.7521804876726464000
1960-11-01 0.8238229647950808000
1960-12-01 0.6673160186128315000
1961-01-01 0.8458460609956339000
1961-02-01 0.5357552398120627000
1961-03-01 0.2435687597032619200
1961-04-01 -0.2583874005264639000
1961-05-01 -0.3830356053718015000
1961-06-01 -0.5287150577521016000
1961-07-01 -0.8854313752975626000
1961-08-01 -0.7339128389513481000
1961-09-01 -0.4176260927186006000
1961-10-01 0.1008859984059004200
1961-11-01 0.2397813826423925200
1961-12-01 0.2381768592777915900
1962-01-01 0.4276599306766571000
1962-02-01 0.3793222957456862000
1962-03-01 0.5817491726476929000
1962-04-01 0.8401347344695379000
1962-05-01 0.8276222772405125000
1962-06-01 0.6159153345433583000
1962-07-01 0.5411294556007011000
1962-08-01 0.4728836597541234000
1962-09-01 0.2663901885066647000
1962-10-01 0.2055142358255771000
1962-11-01 0.3010752493070591500
1962-12-01 0.1078204685115363300
1963-01-01 -0.1001660807169320600
1963-02-01 -0.1120809212095983200
1963-03-01 0.0695026433153898300
1963-04-01 0.1844188610667367200
1963-05-01 0.2761642120728779500
1963-06-01 0.4139148184069587600
1963-07-01 0.6158380020795463000
1963-08-01 0.5603945367988176000
1963-09-01 0.6074539487998427000
1963-10-01 0.4871996947605785600
1963-11-01 0.4512440712183344000
1963-12-01 0.6249756396932589000
1964-01-01 0.7161903480493077000
1964-02-01 0.9430181192090263000
1964-03-01 0.7901826158262310000
1964-04-01 0.7698711450624204000
1964-05-01 0.6963366315043559000
1964-06-01 0.5780938771803891000
1964-07-01 0.4442345906182689000
1964-08-01 0.3208923063689450000
1964-09-01 0.0780527574178569300
1964-10-01 -0.0768470247579041800
1964-11-01 -0.2347383677044546000
1964-12-01 0.0952267908883087800
1965-01-01 0.2131691905609341700
1965-02-01 0.6948622244049487000
1965-03-01 0.8342667168693279000
1965-04-01 0.9627218882679957000
1965-05-01 1.2902356354289060000
1965-06-01 1.2983013414576188000
1965-07-01 1.6462667418009320000
1965-08-01 2.0121531858226270000
1965-09-01 2.0262107820011660000
1965-10-01 1.8022036450099157000
1965-11-01 1.2286546104521114000
1965-12-01 0.7454901258576210000
1966-01-01 0.2844040533298804000
1966-02-01 0.0069857244783771840
1966-03-01 0.0227712684420424240
1966-04-01 -0.0434470327823971700
1966-05-01 -0.0225427679018716070
1966-06-01 0.1968128839950528700
1966-07-01 0.3393200508457359700
1966-08-01 0.3523012453725812000
1966-09-01 0.6757189626444672000
1966-10-01 1.0998552647235587000
1966-11-01 1.7476149652373523000
1966-12-01 1.9221590970637588000
1967-01-01 2.2835135531287896000
1967-02-01 2.0343415226926935000
1967-03-01 1.9953850294642679000
1967-04-01 1.9734410007159704000
1967-05-01 1.7134206452729581000
1967-06-01 1.4066879012440600000
1967-07-01 1.1717107675658180000
1967-08-01 0.8443376005006794000
1967-09-01 0.7636412274489794000
1967-10-01 0.5285817429917549000
1967-11-01 0.5590129310456742000
1967-12-01 0.8615683849092040000
1968-01-01 1.2602470100524537000
1968-02-01 1.6138397880095887000
1968-03-01 1.6278111009112468000
1968-04-01 1.4140170130627010000
1968-05-01 1.3448039872159165000
1968-06-01 1.2079864120746253000
1968-07-01 1.0007766361294608000
1968-08-01 0.8821251875404136000
1968-09-01 0.4613848297299009000
1968-10-01 0.1649130155538561200
1968-11-01 0.2661469002950717000
1968-12-01 0.3403814960127553000
1969-01-01 0.5081554823230571000
1969-02-01 0.2786964989875467000
1969-03-01 -0.0520392942274602450
1969-04-01 -0.0737684426458617000
1969-05-01 -0.0658879436562436300
1969-06-01 -0.2571971100604689000
1969-07-01 -0.3104708845553912000
1969-08-01 -0.0966245475262282900
1969-09-01 -0.1076922060399954800
1969-10-01 -0.0449532092011178100
1969-11-01 0.1681746183975266000
1969-12-01 0.2730457532693833000
1970-01-01 0.3642711048297856400
1970-02-01 0.5840158074992222000
1970-03-01 0.6907216114904114000
1970-04-01 0.7761533713000326000
1970-05-01 0.8126231632262981000
1970-06-01 0.9996770059158624000
1970-07-01 1.2714752851681759000
1970-08-01 1.3419270489696673000
1970-09-01 1.1763142656757497000
1970-10-01 1.0082013253604798000
1970-11-01 0.8797461572431361000
1970-12-01 0.8776252336849986000
1971-01-01 1.0460638449737811000
1971-02-01 0.8664265421211580000
1971-03-01 0.8268537364161397000
1971-04-01 0.7019204097534396000
1971-05-01 0.4008739830789855300
1971-06-01 0.1913826599420787300
1971-07-01 0.1778584033164851000
1971-08-01 0.0874939182483316800
1971-09-01 -0.1155414378175097900
1971-10-01 -0.1248870665884337800
1971-11-01 0.1307190284517615300
1971-12-01 0.5441175936043139000
1972-01-01 0.7560358466863183000
1972-02-01 0.7143847394615794000
1972-03-01 0.8502519288871884000
1972-04-01 0.6073508362825681000
1972-05-01 0.4610620770435948600
1972-06-01 0.3873890603519709600
1972-07-01 0.2409066548698656800
1972-08-01 0.0934921129582439400
1972-09-01 -0.0468487205081813550
1972-10-01 -0.0913626036892947900
1972-11-01 -0.5206722456290083000
1972-12-01 -0.5949589025310549000
1973-01-01 -0.7862781727847987000
1973-02-01 -1.1024466205846373000
1973-03-01 -1.3845807173348534000
1973-04-01 -1.6382152760855568000
1973-05-01 -1.6663461190815405000
1973-06-01 -1.8024087070095600000
1973-07-01 -2.0308391754329200000
1973-08-01 -2.6166700915373027000
1973-09-01 -2.4389103556849100000
1973-10-01 -2.7177767997252280000
1973-11-01 -2.6822947916130118000
1973-12-01 -2.8289667801617644000
1974-01-01 -2.5160779797786160000
1974-02-01 -2.0219492658030966000
1974-03-01 -1.5625880751837087000
1974-04-01 -1.1754976025232173000
1974-05-01 -0.8751331801452007000
1974-06-01 -0.7449627377724711000
1974-07-01 -0.6649562355587815000
1974-08-01 -0.4588819214405919000
1974-09-01 -0.1653946543766854000
1974-10-01 0.5304339535067665000
1974-11-01 1.2610349133428230000
1974-12-01 2.1885164196459383000
1975-01-01 2.2451133944138806000
1975-02-01 2.2375268027292120000
1975-03-01 2.1329459044400103000
1975-04-01 1.7013310595171045000
1975-05-01 1.3651648825288900000
1975-06-01 0.5350758990397407000
1975-07-01 0.0727234639443601500
1975-08-01 -0.0518650560015006400
1975-09-01 -0.2565090196225220000
1975-10-01 -0.1382315441827374800
1975-11-01 -0.0888019402824917900
1975-12-01 -0.1101255253177219000
1976-01-01 0.1178134687654734300
1976-02-01 0.0621290077584235460
1976-03-01 -0.0374505678271337060
1976-04-01 -0.0552467996490427200
1976-05-01 -0.2003340073980596000
1976-06-01 -0.1933766682830556400
1976-07-01 -0.0949494406005918800
1976-08-01 -0.0227789287287799530
1976-09-01 0.1185848437620400800
1976-10-01 -0.0127279973277604850
1976-11-01 -0.0140369757492244480
1976-12-01 -0.2218999168031444700
1977-01-01 -0.5564461266528874000
1977-02-01 -0.4579578886276041700
1977-03-01 -0.3933594358981854000
1977-04-01 -0.0884648793363723800
1977-05-01 0.1431463299601875600
1977-06-01 0.2381258458839777500
1977-07-01 0.3501115088053852000
1977-08-01 0.2502479102379774000
1977-09-01 0.2418098079026109500
1977-10-01 0.1282405374434526800
1977-11-01 0.0017816994555042394
1977-12-01 0.0579991298273291500
1978-01-01 0.2606309189021564500
1978-02-01 0.6629836091571688000
1978-03-01 1.0148291448983007000
1978-04-01 0.8968839600433904000
1978-05-01 0.4760880313974557600
1978-06-01 0.2098225259733450800
1978-07-01 -0.1943218968962904000
1978-08-01 -0.4572959349405416600
1978-09-01 -0.5959902286469380000
1978-10-01 -0.8124258045068469000
1978-11-01 -1.0810417457898567000
1978-12-01 -1.3302069923068998000
1979-01-01 -1.7145664869971409000
1979-02-01 -1.7366187380636342000
1979-03-01 -1.8529513749825492000
1979-04-01 -2.0605981549433943000
1979-05-01 -1.8541779309047643000
1979-06-01 -1.5722888386796803000
1979-07-01 -1.3359739655229710000
1979-08-01 -1.0559561851203147000
1979-09-01 -1.2757572776604063000
1979-10-01 -1.7254580515262707000
1979-11-01 -1.8583472808141548000
1979-12-01 -1.9889904362865953000
1980-01-01 -2.0032380090762560000
1980-02-01 -1.9259207842922523000
1980-03-01 -1.6057333902921560000
1980-04-01 -1.0595866906242153000
1980-05-01 -0.2479684505070179300
1980-06-01 0.4645164673741482600
1980-07-01 0.5727307945678861000
1980-08-01 -0.0164914030950561660
1980-09-01 -0.5359641797253184000
1980-10-01 -0.7205559063519416000
1980-11-01 -0.6897459240436609000
1980-12-01 -0.5494649150787131000
1981-01-01 -0.3626770208794917000
1981-02-01 -0.5429901999265588000
1981-03-01 -0.5546274953895578000
1981-04-01 -0.7480212541699633000
1981-05-01 -0.8163787564967953000
1981-06-01 -0.7661599086738687000
1981-07-01 -0.5302784085704633000
1981-08-01 -0.2860597340173617000
1981-09-01 -0.2305643659785868700
1981-10-01 0.2660057193804874500
1981-11-01 0.6490966453880174000
1981-12-01 0.7118244979965890000
1982-01-01 0.6781206326244773000
1982-02-01 0.6551869876009729000
1982-03-01 0.6181502504614523000
1982-04-01 0.5415672667009022000
1982-05-01 0.4515540321829241000
1982-06-01 0.3944559520475148000
1982-07-01 0.9674511565399248000
1982-08-01 1.3006020428862513000
1982-09-01 1.6126728264302588000
1982-10-01 1.7196798138439282000
1982-11-01 1.6390922602511757000
1982-12-01 1.2539340076701022000
1983-01-01 0.7438526808397081000
1983-02-01 0.3278549138490050000
1983-03-01 0.3701148156900353500
1983-04-01 0.1867679423337851300
1983-05-01 0.0607829972897292250
1983-06-01 -0.1308677355444555000
1983-07-01 -0.2062802661995133000
1983-08-01 -0.3396955377485480500
1983-09-01 -0.2362847534687424800
1983-10-01 -0.2663201111284559000
1983-11-01 -0.2898712192330433000
1983-12-01 -0.0755575900528963900
1984-01-01 0.1254985459554674700
1984-02-01 0.2186030987033819000
1984-03-01 0.4526328534081412000
1984-04-01 0.8106815471110326000
1984-05-01 0.7453494667046255000
1984-06-01 0.6715334709427798000
1984-07-01 0.4833378427539628500
1984-08-01 0.5565400228746908000
1984-09-01 0.7802728689359042000
1984-10-01 0.6146255288419217000
1984-11-01 0.9072103937542983000
1984-12-01 0.8856937812701038000
1985-01-01 0.9127918928908512000
1985-02-01 0.8791333874072542000
1985-03-01 0.6963932648735642000
1985-04-01 0.8319259119262431000
1985-05-01 1.0525256644446301000
1985-06-01 1.2365311802112620000
1985-07-01 1.0550166999878514000
1985-08-01 0.9019593719192869000
1985-09-01 0.7604843491536318000
1985-10-01 0.2887595754573122000
1985-11-01 0.2788511756359579600
1985-12-01 0.5766906663514856000
1986-01-01 0.3919631956471292000
1986-02-01 0.5943242153838563000
1986-03-01 0.7956581212437556000
1986-04-01 0.4710880052047257700
1986-05-01 0.1568071818921217800
1986-06-01 -0.1433685489343772300
1986-07-01 -0.2515088918470380000
1986-08-01 -0.4021343888196344000
1986-09-01 -0.4527713899831010700
1986-10-01 -0.6424465073319949000
1986-11-01 -0.6968060036321666000
1986-12-01 -0.9065226266266351000
1987-01-01 -1.3714922483107765000
1987-02-01 -1.1219833477892334000
1987-03-01 -1.1394240552620658000
1987-04-01 -1.1350597760967585000
1987-05-01 -1.0636918377782778000
1987-06-01 -1.1844121994798775000
1987-07-01 -1.0563604251217733000
1987-08-01 -0.8652814050813961000
1987-09-01 -1.0850836284966545000
1987-10-01 -0.9145664058828266000
1987-11-01 -0.7681746429660463000
1987-12-01 -0.6844164359917690000
1988-01-01 -0.4935122371018355000
1988-02-01 -0.3606747118950543000
1988-03-01 -0.4486007309194034500
1988-04-01 -0.4908516361110545300
1988-05-01 -0.4580376507464105000
1988-06-01 -0.5066356504394166000
1988-07-01 -0.4413130571098925500
1988-08-01 -0.3539693039663381300
1988-09-01 -0.3765046846012647000
1988-10-01 -0.0913085410368521000
1988-11-01 -0.2282878890243289800
1988-12-01 -0.2414923681720492200
1989-01-01 -0.2651354297409009000
1989-02-01 -0.3741590740449768000
1989-03-01 -0.3926327602438633000
1989-04-01 -0.2309602128474403400
1989-05-01 0.0128270618034747020
1989-06-01 0.4715419273663789000
1989-07-01 0.6422141705312819000
1989-08-01 0.4746481255836470500
1989-09-01 0.2956430336872426500
1989-10-01 -0.0644390359769300800
1989-11-01 -0.3588492127439321700
1989-12-01 -0.4815086065229205500
1990-01-01 -0.7168731535876209000
1990-02-01 -1.2260664098133910000
1990-03-01 -1.1850007780311718000
1990-04-01 -1.2766611812571915000
1990-05-01 -1.3454269514331914000
1990-06-01 -1.5902937825161880000
1990-07-01 -1.8559254305644899000
1990-08-01 -2.1559927723060093000
1990-09-01 -2.0348599199415920000
1990-10-01 -1.8037785021889972000
1990-11-01 -1.2009293402946370000
1990-12-01 -0.8467524879658498000
1991-01-01 -0.4550912817407723000
1991-02-01 0.2198699319870535700
1991-03-01 0.3026969362876018600
1991-04-01 -0.1921793148158384700
1991-05-01 -0.5859495334752821000
1991-06-01 -0.8678353279471133000
1991-07-01 -1.1332902968143235000
1991-08-01 -1.2756841453707848000
1991-09-01 -1.1730829464373467000
1991-10-01 -0.9749225715801404000
1991-11-01 -0.6012101327149456000
1991-12-01 -0.2272841809511437000
1992-01-01 -0.0182832431442314580
1992-02-01 -0.2920632336837942000
1992-03-01 -0.4694266111084677000
1992-04-01 -0.4222742986390205500
1992-05-01 -0.5134859310425880000
1992-06-01 -0.6866237163186280000
1992-07-01 -0.5834210701845438000
1992-08-01 -0.3863339650342166300
1992-09-01 -0.4102454500804285000
1992-10-01 -0.5056419685559510000
1992-11-01 -0.5860365856978652000
1992-12-01 -0.6652733767337261000
1993-01-01 -1.1733846022968362000
1993-02-01 -1.1288009445193763000
1993-03-01 -0.8802652163743250000
1993-04-01 -0.4725605497243618400
1993-05-01 -0.4276461069468034400
1993-06-01 -0.0754504263223406700
1993-07-01 0.1492758716805695200
1993-08-01 0.1096577578345811900
1993-09-01 0.0959724054305049800
1993-10-01 0.0164933480834877700
1993-11-01 0.0138152631490030300
1993-12-01 -0.0518795233161540700
1994-01-01 -0.4788729612709390000
1994-02-01 -0.7664762003779467000
1994-03-01 -0.9392231115160588000
1994-04-01 -1.1198676559342757000
1994-05-01 -1.2855290781819007000
1994-06-01 -1.3170890237916617000
1994-07-01 -1.4160452763851168000
1994-08-01 -1.4478647311668180000
1994-09-01 -1.3011276903826172000
1994-10-01 -1.2399266015327150000
1994-11-01 -1.3470750219233554000
1994-12-01 -1.3494564800551276000
1995-01-01 -1.3141820771145443000
1995-02-01 -1.0783716537973165000
1995-03-01 -0.7022025503832444000
1995-04-01 -0.4516315640751620000
1995-05-01 -0.0831286192064588600
1995-06-01 0.1756786501206178700
1995-07-01 0.2544147498608866000
1995-08-01 0.1419840026098856400
1995-09-01 0.0642408377348551300
1995-10-01 0.0189419201780604940
1995-11-01 0.2025743141489479000
1995-12-01 0.1439395680909453800
1996-01-01 0.1062756830615776400
1996-02-01 0.3596067077065458500
1996-03-01 0.2862923725032018000
1996-04-01 0.0794031344052929400
1996-05-01 0.0381266533692699200
1996-06-01 -0.0863798483957122600
1996-07-01 -0.1867363027890219000
1996-08-01 -0.1814025648214589400
1996-09-01 -0.3566041647359521000
1996-10-01 -0.3232252467914241000
1996-11-01 -0.2930651218133631400
1996-12-01 -0.3406802852896939600
1997-01-01 -0.1692566792966540600
1997-02-01 -0.0274629675620452970
1997-03-01 0.1533454059159493000
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