Federal Reserve Economic Data

Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index
Series ID BBKMLEIX
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Standard Deviations
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2024-07-01
Last Updated 2024-09-03 7:31 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 1.38096647872977950000
1960-02-01 1.80001381753293850000
1960-03-01 2.06901513857048960000
1960-04-01 2.20611054932850830000
1960-05-01 1.92491678767520700000
1960-06-01 1.74437111712475650000
1960-07-01 1.63080182938351250000
1960-08-01 1.45055742892719080000
1960-09-01 1.20161200574985270000
1960-10-01 1.08955019464134460000
1960-11-01 0.99569560305199870000
1960-12-01 0.85986140759047510000
1961-01-01 0.89235577279667040000
1961-02-01 0.62190943234748890000
1961-03-01 0.41084882186209890000
1961-04-01 0.12789141698489853000
1961-05-01 -0.01369447938608290000
1961-06-01 -0.11339547455375797000
1961-07-01 -0.31083942843920350000
1961-08-01 -0.17264714245360596000
1961-09-01 0.03434815836147682400
1961-10-01 0.41021951480675367000
1961-11-01 0.57488150443792510000
1961-12-01 0.64796525076482310000
1962-01-01 0.74736235038443430000
1962-02-01 0.83347884066599400000
1962-03-01 0.95967188146676490000
1962-04-01 1.08292312926423540000
1962-05-01 1.04465953892743100000
1962-06-01 0.94686762465430540000
1962-07-01 0.89547708158904970000
1962-08-01 0.77761844914283910000
1962-09-01 0.65041287431976200000
1962-10-01 0.61819553763044500000
1962-11-01 0.64214904409135550000
1962-12-01 0.50302137842136510000
1963-01-01 0.38909966309423900000
1963-02-01 0.33697529231665885000
1963-03-01 0.45721757329045815000
1963-04-01 0.59981439840115460000
1963-05-01 0.70804731929236990000
1963-06-01 0.78417315472009190000
1963-07-01 0.88971796101870800000
1963-08-01 0.92528872184988750000
1963-09-01 1.01374338945204100000
1963-10-01 0.98102935233137220000
1963-11-01 0.96521827702593430000
1963-12-01 1.06084613474064600000
1964-01-01 1.14082894804710990000
1964-02-01 1.26176467817828140000
1964-03-01 1.18232224928396620000
1964-04-01 1.15690707199769370000
1964-05-01 1.09363218928283270000
1964-06-01 1.00799361920371070000
1964-07-01 0.94768057842061060000
1964-08-01 0.88440678155138960000
1964-09-01 0.75636894209920940000
1964-10-01 0.67201111852951820000
1964-11-01 0.71440436846004110000
1964-12-01 0.97549524427609850000
1965-01-01 1.14343180846234200000
1965-02-01 1.44473437923213800000
1965-03-01 1.63709028652491280000
1965-04-01 1.72250294960882950000
1965-05-01 1.97324681039937120000
1965-06-01 2.03441040154036830000
1965-07-01 2.25908425644533840000
1965-08-01 2.39988719588983020000
1965-09-01 2.39437971757612680000
1965-10-01 2.22610975051386540000
1965-11-01 1.85018383910978980000
1965-12-01 1.53750638412901130000
1966-01-01 1.22735265849645510000
1966-02-01 1.04341349815372950000
1966-03-01 1.04189172161020700000
1966-04-01 1.00450478605026920000
1966-05-01 1.05826059858454840000
1966-06-01 1.21801931905761520000
1966-07-01 1.33420381419300220000
1966-08-01 1.41001073280634760000
1966-09-01 1.64833427670011400000
1966-10-01 1.96388003133389670000
1966-11-01 2.33997628300469660000
1966-12-01 2.46334130524519330000
1967-01-01 2.62743653109431400000
1967-02-01 2.37990332552280800000
1967-03-01 2.27687336834377340000
1967-04-01 2.17949692394584100000
1967-05-01 1.95361959402745010000
1967-06-01 1.69997386387922600000
1967-07-01 1.52963593382130200000
1967-08-01 1.35351670422843460000
1967-09-01 1.21710566977323120000
1967-10-01 1.09658907379064700000
1967-11-01 1.18321651500688900000
1967-12-01 1.37839501467064600000
1968-01-01 1.61575854803233530000
1968-02-01 1.83102395134593830000
1968-03-01 1.82153150116102380000
1968-04-01 1.68676264979978320000
1968-05-01 1.60548214445895200000
1968-06-01 1.40575721026338700000
1968-07-01 1.21499965853356580000
1968-08-01 1.06622871717546190000
1968-09-01 0.79715259362806670000
1968-10-01 0.61804024518485840000
1968-11-01 0.65990327010271740000
1968-12-01 0.68044220372022060000
1969-01-01 0.77305453417583780000
1969-02-01 0.63313534165439160000
1969-03-01 0.47046999598426176000
1969-04-01 0.37061784658327050000
1969-05-01 0.32163772814246344000
1969-06-01 0.21266125984923745000
1969-07-01 0.12821805238009049000
1969-08-01 0.15388290933416535000
1969-09-01 0.11569715177749162000
1969-10-01 0.14380581263298500000
1969-11-01 0.27170289007975570000
1969-12-01 0.38778428417859356000
1970-01-01 0.43496518051880784000
1970-02-01 0.64123217380512830000
1970-03-01 0.73365716814838800000
1970-04-01 0.77916683016313810000
1970-05-01 0.77826678741316710000
1970-06-01 0.88384089522766370000
1970-07-01 1.01210686641794800000
1970-08-01 0.97373613121378510000
1970-09-01 0.80932925938044320000
1970-10-01 0.63869057755437360000
1970-11-01 0.61416143737087890000
1970-12-01 0.70861601647491480000
1971-01-01 0.75909624187910390000
1971-02-01 0.62602307812807220000
1971-03-01 0.56219626044169690000
1971-04-01 0.44313023058783120000
1971-05-01 0.24418996342736804000
1971-06-01 0.08278895274833258000
1971-07-01 0.01591127703843828200
1971-08-01 -0.05614946870988150000
1971-09-01 -0.14406449915491670000
1971-10-01 -0.18379895221489410000
1971-11-01 -0.01410536517780381800
1971-12-01 0.31990442463459000000
1972-01-01 0.52108836418338830000
1972-02-01 0.53756124814964560000
1972-03-01 0.56842082894651650000
1972-04-01 0.44686839608452855000
1972-05-01 0.31441531200233980000
1972-06-01 0.20141457793983786000
1972-07-01 0.01398498546867108000
1972-08-01 -0.10523041002299068000
1972-09-01 -0.22211793417594330000
1972-10-01 -0.27017866983814980000
1972-11-01 -0.49223754338906706000
1972-12-01 -0.51536024885131740000
1973-01-01 -0.56578053723477420000
1973-02-01 -0.70474056051946940000
1973-03-01 -0.90915572664336930000
1973-04-01 -1.13632603177540160000
1973-05-01 -1.23913265955715100000
1973-06-01 -1.45796797934494600000
1973-07-01 -1.73593202274994060000
1973-08-01 -2.10042846579406400000
1973-09-01 -2.14415092780508300000
1973-10-01 -2.32272001321765200000
1973-11-01 -2.27681684290948400000
1973-12-01 -2.30554149485355130000
1974-01-01 -2.07903727835340920000
1974-02-01 -1.72570795537246400000
1974-03-01 -1.36236359458926100000
1974-04-01 -1.00366142765902830000
1974-05-01 -0.63973006552097990000
1974-06-01 -0.40723579808657790000
1974-07-01 -0.16049006006248076000
1974-08-01 0.15256660023705543000
1974-09-01 0.54020099496224800000
1974-10-01 1.02673088376432140000
1974-11-01 1.33162480263940770000
1974-12-01 1.70841259246794540000
1975-01-01 1.68360377626318300000
1975-02-01 1.53344160237819470000
1975-03-01 1.36994585081266400000
1975-04-01 1.04255421831095480000
1975-05-01 0.72057503862403650000
1975-06-01 0.19962397282995809000
1975-07-01 -0.05823498684161173400
1975-08-01 -0.14429215141977583000
1975-09-01 -0.27218347842606666000
1975-10-01 -0.26186770383531593000
1975-11-01 -0.30171326463576820000
1975-12-01 -0.29413533347332005000
1976-01-01 -0.16428602504406010000
1976-02-01 -0.17741540053031096000
1976-03-01 -0.24322000635334717000
1976-04-01 -0.22471426932868377000
1976-05-01 -0.27420340128490506000
1976-06-01 -0.31366091784476790000
1976-07-01 -0.24184748942734263000
1976-08-01 -0.20700165446199012000
1976-09-01 -0.14199534899372523000
1976-10-01 -0.24836801212805487000
1976-11-01 -0.27191252345898437000
1976-12-01 -0.37110502263778720000
1977-01-01 -0.50508481021373890000
1977-02-01 -0.31569088700269976000
1977-03-01 -0.16272223907731823000
1977-04-01 0.08124968115543860000
1977-05-01 0.26963955382603120000
1977-06-01 0.33781122426804190000
1977-07-01 0.40710665735292345000
1977-08-01 0.34512996970773240000
1977-09-01 0.31090678188695110000
1977-10-01 0.22242169849404064000
1977-11-01 0.20530597232537423000
1977-12-01 0.29844519726932683000
1978-01-01 0.44733807629393620000
1978-02-01 0.74466087675701400000
1978-03-01 1.01327115819134500000
1978-04-01 0.97032833150079150000
1978-05-01 0.72215907850932910000
1978-06-01 0.53512999974066830000
1978-07-01 0.20769809819750631000
1978-08-01 -0.03944474742613597600
1978-09-01 -0.22969645376717654000
1978-10-01 -0.44068085771354360000
1978-11-01 -0.67358960241699300000
1978-12-01 -0.91387902285261800000
1979-01-01 -1.22167287601060810000
1979-02-01 -1.31243762158967470000
1979-03-01 -1.47002579481170900000
1979-04-01 -1.64784252806220330000
1979-05-01 -1.47197612438690340000
1979-06-01 -1.33551422885325620000
1979-07-01 -1.22860025448639390000
1979-08-01 -1.14409059005092080000
1979-09-01 -1.21951841145123100000
1979-10-01 -1.37915195210383500000
1979-11-01 -1.45578189726198030000
1979-12-01 -1.47510086179650100000
1980-01-01 -1.41240941500443860000
1980-02-01 -1.32005741314950950000
1980-03-01 -1.18088705768636600000
1980-04-01 -1.03851805596757130000
1980-05-01 -0.79663336994588630000
1980-06-01 -0.53020080296945040000
1980-07-01 -0.50379840112759940000
1980-08-01 -0.71877398396508520000
1980-09-01 -0.85314316344821550000
1980-10-01 -0.85474136285287750000
1980-11-01 -0.70808975871659760000
1980-12-01 -0.53630996519504870000
1981-01-01 -0.41085265619740790000
1981-02-01 -0.41708715889827880000
1981-03-01 -0.31796378678997067000
1981-04-01 -0.37489305451184340000
1981-05-01 -0.32286964112721480000
1981-06-01 -0.25304574355013770000
1981-07-01 -0.12154954022106174000
1981-08-01 -0.03841803349714832000
1981-09-01 -0.04363357628590449000
1981-10-01 0.11815524319483926000
1981-11-01 0.20940769899205353000
1981-12-01 0.12179941187728498000
1982-01-01 -0.00042203502624741274
1982-02-01 0.08026245777455271000
1982-03-01 -0.03004993180468098400
1982-04-01 -0.07076734747668566000
1982-05-01 -0.08291433825952049000
1982-06-01 -0.01208792338772908700
1982-07-01 0.28660088200076990000
1982-08-01 0.40091872158848960000
1982-09-01 0.54695340199405670000
1982-10-01 0.53854343636920590000
1982-11-01 0.48440920748881060000
1982-12-01 0.31406825095731894000
1983-01-01 0.13704038749210162000
1983-02-01 -0.09577725157244593000
1983-03-01 -0.03459081936117048400
1983-04-01 -0.07305896846872235000
1983-05-01 -0.12784498995828927000
1983-06-01 -0.13080663118205216000
1983-07-01 -0.02579214735852469000
1983-08-01 0.00456824295771394200
1983-09-01 0.16292411495732800000
1983-10-01 0.19494526380602378000
1983-11-01 0.28018620706008830000
1983-12-01 0.50356174021483540000
1984-01-01 0.77393623117666910000
1984-02-01 0.95304389278372960000
1984-03-01 1.14192219082677360000
1984-04-01 1.35687370960019640000
1984-05-01 1.35738384560661560000
1984-06-01 1.31036620681967860000
1984-07-01 1.22406292804696100000
1984-08-01 1.22738604689945770000
1984-09-01 1.21973499801335720000
1984-10-01 1.06689900749310800000
1984-11-01 1.14137278078523540000
1984-12-01 1.06087456666041820000
1985-01-01 1.02095257429122550000
1985-02-01 0.97765627345572430000
1985-03-01 0.86884033527520240000
1985-04-01 0.92147747483546500000
1985-05-01 1.03570477192515400000
1985-06-01 1.12795736077579400000
1985-07-01 0.97736532002239370000
1985-08-01 0.85544632438336780000
1985-09-01 0.74476898762484760000
1985-10-01 0.50704337297100190000
1985-11-01 0.43695209541339800000
1985-12-01 0.50220214269450260000
1986-01-01 0.29743240840741200000
1986-02-01 0.25511509427397370000
1986-03-01 0.22165946585138860000
1986-04-01 -0.01370823764744140000
1986-05-01 -0.24810582216389300000
1986-06-01 -0.49244940950414690000
1986-07-01 -0.58970198724271600000
1986-08-01 -0.73795644912018300000
1986-09-01 -0.81355071681955970000
1986-10-01 -0.86622284004460890000
1986-11-01 -0.91059658012591150000
1986-12-01 -1.00158306270738630000
1987-01-01 -1.23950982631671700000
1987-02-01 -1.11203571416538780000
1987-03-01 -1.08804749175391110000
1987-04-01 -1.01633687643770760000
1987-05-01 -0.90922500961718490000
1987-06-01 -0.94352110897126360000
1987-07-01 -0.84881151331076960000
1987-08-01 -0.71609962552900830000
1987-09-01 -0.74023704864134140000
1987-10-01 -0.57903907351707650000
1987-11-01 -0.49292418365298696000
1987-12-01 -0.45252920116632583000
1988-01-01 -0.39026064705420194000
1988-02-01 -0.33139112869940960000
1988-03-01 -0.35807694649532257000
1988-04-01 -0.32200642180178946000
1988-05-01 -0.28797434963004387000
1988-06-01 -0.26690298553636150000
1988-07-01 -0.20364790212611175000
1988-08-01 -0.13405709760327938000
1988-09-01 -0.12924844964288865000
1988-10-01 0.02224771297300341300
1988-11-01 0.00142786561946262940
1988-12-01 0.07842157712233093000
1989-01-01 0.14700303867852804000
1989-02-01 0.12820504526899465000
1989-03-01 0.14265152593100310000
1989-04-01 0.20039966843102996000
1989-05-01 0.27244357656269610000
1989-06-01 0.44540022150366860000
1989-07-01 0.42084372182461527000
1989-08-01 0.24592636512359264000
1989-09-01 0.07626476143118002000
1989-10-01 -0.17639052701798366000
1989-11-01 -0.39876679255635616000
1989-12-01 -0.55884635473366130000
1990-01-01 -0.73821852793164870000
1990-02-01 -1.06129838048360300000
1990-03-01 -1.10082352620177850000
1990-04-01 -1.23724368162155170000
1990-05-01 -1.33401097836862180000
1990-06-01 -1.52089262157849640000
1990-07-01 -1.71169988341164210000
1990-08-01 -1.88699282775427050000
1990-09-01 -1.79761295169883420000
1990-10-01 -1.69894582675685850000
1990-11-01 -1.41540897711063420000
1990-12-01 -1.22895692450131480000
1991-01-01 -1.07376172714882380000
1991-02-01 -0.82032429058897540000
1991-03-01 -0.85550295435116210000
1991-04-01 -1.09545984612190960000
1991-05-01 -1.27137380260593820000
1991-06-01 -1.37718224002952750000
1991-07-01 -1.46816066271683950000
1991-08-01 -1.47123392295353920000
1991-09-01 -1.34772230091088960000
1991-10-01 -1.20977238836763480000
1991-11-01 -0.99421053899553860000
1991-12-01 -0.79429986275851990000
1992-01-01 -0.71565321442389400000
1992-02-01 -0.80319502074339830000
1992-03-01 -0.84707196079363300000
1992-04-01 -0.80887619941805290000
1992-05-01 -0.86066675890064040000
1992-06-01 -0.96304207716909630000
1992-07-01 -0.92196081916775980000
1992-08-01 -0.83492043471314570000
1992-09-01 -0.86959921031895080000
1992-10-01 -0.93370760244508080000
1992-11-01 -1.00959068446905540000
1992-12-01 -1.05199301237421520000
1993-01-01 -1.31201574484398890000
1993-02-01 -1.25523980931238580000
1993-03-01 -1.12095412994954340000
1993-04-01 -0.91933947665726760000
1993-05-01 -0.91012551839161450000
1993-06-01 -0.70732225641080670000
1993-07-01 -0.55607582325780820000
1993-08-01 -0.55210866791757760000
1993-09-01 -0.51420550650473820000
1993-10-01 -0.53905703862223900000
1993-11-01 -0.54539803157217610000
1993-12-01 -0.59534097261741570000
1994-01-01 -0.89985199128225770000
1994-02-01 -1.08709315220066480000
1994-03-01 -1.15181466014857700000
1994-04-01 -1.26069839377596570000
1994-05-01 -1.34152991159006230000
1994-06-01 -1.38855807485660750000
1994-07-01 -1.48802574142406270000
1994-08-01 -1.52422810085645930000
1994-09-01 -1.42171364615948010000
1994-10-01 -1.34026497615972580000
1994-11-01 -1.30923647057243930000
1994-12-01 -1.23248773562275800000
1995-01-01 -1.16126624066488440000
1995-02-01 -0.97153403913642420000
1995-03-01 -0.71579097691933460000
1995-04-01 -0.55510314403889030000
1995-05-01 -0.31630274283307175000
1995-06-01 -0.16213049860436224000
1995-07-01 -0.09100289843444817000
1995-08-01 -0.07733767502346593000
1995-09-01 -0.07131081366529958000
1995-10-01 -0.10471419850209907000
1995-11-01 -0.00166520456879683230
1995-12-01 -0.01215909503309528200
1996-01-01 -0.02705850743405465200
1996-02-01 0.13419443210228932000
1996-03-01 0.06334852783065754000
1996-04-01 -0.03872137543643342000
1996-05-01 -0.04994226608245454000
1996-06-01 -0.13207562894803220000
1996-07-01 -0.22365504885551107000
1996-08-01 -0.23052886477118625000
1996-09-01 -0.33171322858574430000
1996-10-01 -0.32418476294233034000
1996-11-01 -0.25347943749590870000
1996-12-01 -0.25365918671041420000
1997-01-01 -0.13171738834728702000
1997-02-01 0.07341117851414515000
1997-03-01 0.26659179083148243000
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