Federal Reserve Economic Data

Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index
Series ID BBKMLEIX
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Standard Deviations
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2025-08-01
Last Updated 2025-09-29 7:31 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 0.7075597926165023000
1960-02-01 1.5178401262266720000
1960-03-01 1.9395156228508834000
1960-04-01 2.2283754913185048000
1960-05-01 1.6925118833075294000
1960-06-01 1.4770948772253718000
1960-07-01 1.3385036151487923000
1960-08-01 1.1609956339775156000
1960-09-01 0.8509192222454438000
1960-10-01 0.7574064659845774000
1960-11-01 0.8323039085150359000
1960-12-01 0.6782243649756938000
1961-01-01 0.8618996995930388000
1961-02-01 0.5580415413485539000
1961-03-01 0.2718787050891832000
1961-04-01 -0.2266591847645286000
1961-05-01 -0.3504061569679455000
1961-06-01 -0.5005339152220709000
1961-07-01 -0.8593178172920280000
1961-08-01 -0.7124508196606342000
1961-09-01 -0.3999237392937760600
1961-10-01 0.1078802757451405700
1961-11-01 0.2452561446043472800
1961-12-01 0.2396337038513803300
1962-01-01 0.4247678169490674000
1962-02-01 0.3822639347409826000
1962-03-01 0.5880212760892998000
1962-04-01 0.8472328612919966000
1962-05-01 0.8417720494319862000
1962-06-01 0.6342105649241073000
1962-07-01 0.5584306497979395000
1962-08-01 0.4899054566178145400
1962-09-01 0.2844994462981602600
1962-10-01 0.2254117285459204000
1962-11-01 0.3179925857207491000
1962-12-01 0.1223608324757195200
1963-01-01 -0.0855847875841398800
1963-02-01 -0.0968318748700072700
1963-03-01 0.0838145504567073300
1963-04-01 0.1990959590932510300
1963-05-01 0.2886276471977961600
1963-06-01 0.4221907762666931000
1963-07-01 0.6209782192327178000
1963-08-01 0.5683452454649301000
1963-09-01 0.6151814516677470000
1963-10-01 0.4976380997421084000
1963-11-01 0.4670832829780464700
1963-12-01 0.6381196440045237000
1964-01-01 0.7251305842686622000
1964-02-01 0.9466655210189558000
1964-03-01 0.7929097676262292000
1964-04-01 0.7761536365289089000
1964-05-01 0.7048667295728188000
1964-06-01 0.5868881788222240000
1964-07-01 0.4497691727333631400
1964-08-01 0.3255221480588464000
1964-09-01 0.0826879679647971600
1964-10-01 -0.0714204672451393500
1964-11-01 -0.2279604689359953600
1964-12-01 0.1009302761393518600
1965-01-01 0.2179023710056603200
1965-02-01 0.6976221100298284000
1965-03-01 0.8370477478069256000
1965-04-01 0.9658299926137205000
1965-05-01 1.2954364293870495000
1965-06-01 1.3040456442615120000
1965-07-01 1.6521531858897338000
1965-08-01 2.0212861097496324000
1965-09-01 2.0365929058902688000
1965-10-01 1.8108520241005186000
1965-11-01 1.2377021341178427000
1965-12-01 0.7508433414439767000
1966-01-01 0.2885577730392793000
1966-02-01 0.0088051376335480500
1966-03-01 0.0228177525353571100
1966-04-01 -0.0389641702812391150
1966-05-01 -0.0126401599779548870
1966-06-01 0.2021456074466853300
1966-07-01 0.3422542782201043000
1966-08-01 0.3553045740483359300
1966-09-01 0.6806914986997300000
1966-10-01 1.1068765541604797000
1966-11-01 1.7537452880222701000
1966-12-01 1.9324057802687917000
1967-01-01 2.2936040478198130000
1967-02-01 2.0459971830575510000
1967-03-01 2.0064387068320960000
1967-04-01 1.9797170201379010000
1967-05-01 1.7173919841274790000
1967-06-01 1.4100146382355500000
1967-07-01 1.1756676260987817000
1967-08-01 0.8476449255274777000
1967-09-01 0.7687110659873448000
1967-10-01 0.5343812740769557000
1967-11-01 0.5639211848610337000
1967-12-01 0.8657430210175266000
1968-01-01 1.2645957399107306000
1968-02-01 1.6130787561993127000
1968-03-01 1.6250117356657614000
1968-04-01 1.4113872847548548000
1968-05-01 1.3418551635535847000
1968-06-01 1.2064587420070790000
1968-07-01 1.0000416623572920000
1968-08-01 0.8814418426531302000
1968-09-01 0.4620547112969526400
1968-10-01 0.1648642170114851300
1968-11-01 0.2646933730481210000
1968-12-01 0.3384326979783451300
1969-01-01 0.5053241294163845000
1969-02-01 0.2761440949887332000
1969-03-01 -0.0517449112351934700
1969-04-01 -0.0731527118980071400
1969-05-01 -0.0641943232416243000
1969-06-01 -0.2560335507092149000
1969-07-01 -0.3103282830911229000
1969-08-01 -0.0964683213887702800
1969-09-01 -0.1052498002937038700
1969-10-01 -0.0413598824491545750
1969-11-01 0.1710530423756237700
1969-12-01 0.2755134778800912000
1970-01-01 0.3666963581275289000
1970-02-01 0.5850603514355031000
1970-03-01 0.6937103474763078000
1970-04-01 0.7812563415357660000
1970-05-01 0.8180388798473950000
1970-06-01 1.0041416342397653000
1970-07-01 1.2740719950064205000
1970-08-01 1.3443205651093189000
1970-09-01 1.1803190816434750000
1970-10-01 1.0133220752679860000
1970-11-01 0.8831845684039139000
1970-12-01 0.8771723184680937000
1971-01-01 1.0455693248301976000
1971-02-01 0.8690385044490172000
1971-03-01 0.8278746150271987000
1971-04-01 0.7027800472900831000
1971-05-01 0.4035114681146600000
1971-06-01 0.1953225319994913400
1971-07-01 0.1816206134581193300
1971-08-01 0.0914911715253773500
1971-09-01 -0.1105133158971586000
1971-10-01 -0.1190187212156058300
1971-11-01 0.1357262506417005000
1971-12-01 0.5476981043072779000
1972-01-01 0.7588957554723833000
1972-02-01 0.7184074226455285000
1972-03-01 0.8528131388580535000
1972-04-01 0.6100715511636638000
1972-05-01 0.4640356255483580300
1972-06-01 0.3894471482400795300
1972-07-01 0.2429579341542351700
1972-08-01 0.0929432206185093900
1972-09-01 -0.0462316807383841500
1972-10-01 -0.0936743656530573500
1972-11-01 -0.5219912014846574000
1972-12-01 -0.5973932521236801000
1973-01-01 -0.7883761531076410000
1973-02-01 -1.1042063572567649000
1973-03-01 -1.3859338987035534000
1973-04-01 -1.6365566538971485000
1973-05-01 -1.6641395036187767000
1973-06-01 -1.7984412409069970000
1973-07-01 -2.0249409511868240000
1973-08-01 -2.6073779903709733000
1973-09-01 -2.4279696742653423000
1973-10-01 -2.7055729832433086000
1973-11-01 -2.6705147806786216000
1973-12-01 -2.8167199600263900000
1974-01-01 -2.5067412339992714000
1974-02-01 -2.0164592623858970000
1974-03-01 -1.5612392971605880000
1974-04-01 -1.1759367348409484000
1974-05-01 -0.8748954076004901000
1974-06-01 -0.7437421455048538000
1974-07-01 -0.6623555658640070000
1974-08-01 -0.4561670691747442600
1974-09-01 -0.1621302231586978500
1974-10-01 0.5296436836405407000
1974-11-01 1.2583589398404580000
1974-12-01 2.1821736126167077000
1975-01-01 2.2397113028298990000
1975-02-01 2.2287573878921356000
1975-03-01 2.1241875819303810000
1975-04-01 1.6958067320529650000
1975-05-01 1.3637524156292158000
1975-06-01 0.5399261500767766000
1975-07-01 0.0811197060608247600
1975-08-01 -0.0425022173126201400
1975-09-01 -0.2472249390846535700
1975-10-01 -0.1317059406935731000
1975-11-01 -0.0866969648540460000
1975-12-01 -0.1104040492096168800
1976-01-01 0.1116027305370222800
1976-02-01 0.0569308301077421850
1976-03-01 -0.0429254797017851900
1976-04-01 -0.0619586877957112940
1976-05-01 -0.2049849395856626000
1976-06-01 -0.1966284020199633400
1976-07-01 -0.0983095363252946700
1976-08-01 -0.0271907541583359430
1976-09-01 0.1162117365794063100
1976-10-01 -0.0119754415606950280
1976-11-01 -0.0160571311612893350
1976-12-01 -0.2247953761338298800
1977-01-01 -0.5552043127662761000
1977-02-01 -0.4555399347263810500
1977-03-01 -0.3928088915348477700
1977-04-01 -0.0884872864625323200
1977-05-01 0.1444494500092191300
1977-06-01 0.2424030811019291200
1977-07-01 0.3554173117302542600
1977-08-01 0.2546080927879590000
1977-09-01 0.2429082103434966300
1977-10-01 0.1292413135632645400
1977-11-01 0.0041175452988021655
1977-12-01 0.0621006684806063860
1978-01-01 0.2640427039382453600
1978-02-01 0.6644340901912699000
1978-03-01 1.0160771935412514000
1978-04-01 0.8995991701757078000
1978-05-01 0.4798511548052200600
1978-06-01 0.2117937303426337700
1978-07-01 -0.1918453200065851300
1978-08-01 -0.4547342771502525500
1978-09-01 -0.5966922824737342000
1978-10-01 -0.8129313395985399000
1978-11-01 -1.0818574869438944000
1978-12-01 -1.3286157178855504000
1979-01-01 -1.7100558417013787000
1979-02-01 -1.7295558087805813000
1979-03-01 -1.8413978492174650000
1979-04-01 -2.0436230216944030000
1979-05-01 -1.8356022946203292000
1979-06-01 -1.5523280290195225000
1979-07-01 -1.3134552862152788000
1979-08-01 -1.0344461124175235000
1979-09-01 -1.2533202235495435000
1979-10-01 -1.6975121257489440000
1979-11-01 -1.8280485767231898000
1979-12-01 -1.9595303193522309000
1980-01-01 -1.9786566034067168000
1980-02-01 -1.9069817271369653000
1980-03-01 -1.5908824051001416000
1980-04-01 -1.0495092818213985000
1980-05-01 -0.2430334568164706500
1980-06-01 0.4662346595492536400
1980-07-01 0.5749993553523746000
1980-08-01 -0.0130036965998149030
1980-09-01 -0.5302003921976314000
1980-10-01 -0.7168415404904336000
1980-11-01 -0.6866595458920480000
1980-12-01 -0.5488734971138355000
1981-01-01 -0.3663785346962665000
1981-02-01 -0.5500043687375097000
1981-03-01 -0.5641580362845368000
1981-04-01 -0.7549668989330804000
1981-05-01 -0.8199422150387129000
1981-06-01 -0.7641020518329908000
1981-07-01 -0.5233412143607020000
1981-08-01 -0.2770167411796637400
1981-09-01 -0.2187322631209821200
1981-10-01 0.2777292384643296000
1981-11-01 0.6614393036385766000
1981-12-01 0.7247683596444938000
1982-01-01 0.6915174676439670000
1982-02-01 0.6693285545271793000
1982-03-01 0.6312806120991665000
1982-04-01 0.5551494052493251000
1982-05-01 0.4671619366004167000
1982-06-01 0.4121923736274364400
1982-07-01 0.9849770849747314000
1982-08-01 1.3160788816697560000
1982-09-01 1.6264743622590130000
1982-10-01 1.7342534011720580000
1982-11-01 1.6507209653611747000
1982-12-01 1.2658428912192752000
1983-01-01 0.7559878576032281000
1983-02-01 0.3408711136577755600
1983-03-01 0.3831768117907559700
1983-04-01 0.2004432004686887700
1983-05-01 0.0709856210380787600
1983-06-01 -0.1215484597358010300
1983-07-01 -0.1995060053279967300
1983-08-01 -0.3340480947061164600
1983-09-01 -0.2314799115218049200
1983-10-01 -0.2598582651799588000
1983-11-01 -0.2816901883505071000
1983-12-01 -0.0641816618806443900
1984-01-01 0.1396028611177184400
1984-02-01 0.2342371859044022300
1984-03-01 0.4685192270835855000
1984-04-01 0.8240149683588232000
1984-05-01 0.7579309945355750000
1984-06-01 0.6838610009673268000
1984-07-01 0.4925930544274574300
1984-08-01 0.5663309585969301000
1984-09-01 0.7875106314758915000
1984-10-01 0.6237777778798336000
1984-11-01 0.9129374259965170000
1984-12-01 0.8916835431608278000
1985-01-01 0.9202433761844270000
1985-02-01 0.8860741235325963000
1985-03-01 0.7046119697463483000
1985-04-01 0.8402601014751390000
1985-05-01 1.0583355423366712000
1985-06-01 1.2409606604698946000
1985-07-01 1.0606983824223377000
1985-08-01 0.9054180218047960000
1985-09-01 0.7660825365970135000
1985-10-01 0.2974926018246396600
1985-11-01 0.2896590983374666000
1985-12-01 0.5859644229905273000
1986-01-01 0.4031321950654450600
1986-02-01 0.6042815392044840000
1986-03-01 0.8049583634063459000
1986-04-01 0.4830609285038897000
1986-05-01 0.1678703225010662000
1986-06-01 -0.1326560965487069400
1986-07-01 -0.2402344453165890500
1986-08-01 -0.3897078226908986500
1986-09-01 -0.4391616726017298400
1986-10-01 -0.6295987649953062000
1986-11-01 -0.6851207815545768000
1986-12-01 -0.8920918989005111000
1987-01-01 -1.3554829905257946000
1987-02-01 -1.1079660057871592000
1987-03-01 -1.1265294863227502000
1987-04-01 -1.1239067076531002000
1987-05-01 -1.0547456421252948000
1987-06-01 -1.1751286224355761000
1987-07-01 -1.0485822643256442000
1987-08-01 -0.8591965834285323000
1987-09-01 -1.0781922314155017000
1987-10-01 -0.9096053040499358000
1987-11-01 -0.7637477851176018000
1987-12-01 -0.6776925824653894000
1988-01-01 -0.4860060464201831000
1988-02-01 -0.3548349137023691000
1988-03-01 -0.4413915231487125000
1988-04-01 -0.4854333261730642000
1988-05-01 -0.4525429198259387000
1988-06-01 -0.5033456602888515000
1988-07-01 -0.4363971690390445000
1988-08-01 -0.3500529545009616000
1988-09-01 -0.3729775376703169400
1988-10-01 -0.0878606736303419000
1988-11-01 -0.2243227229058477000
1988-12-01 -0.2375380971913273700
1989-01-01 -0.2606166631300584300
1989-02-01 -0.3679987472968686600
1989-03-01 -0.3853125689134165300
1989-04-01 -0.2220385137097864400
1989-05-01 0.0198524292442026560
1989-06-01 0.4760486621686718000
1989-07-01 0.6475411539400291000
1989-08-01 0.4824436906273017000
1989-09-01 0.3062846942086889000
1989-10-01 -0.0519111236004162550
1989-11-01 -0.3453646124133324400
1989-12-01 -0.4665635952190738700
1990-01-01 -0.7007486542566927000
1990-02-01 -1.2115092803254945000
1990-03-01 -1.1739254747736698000
1990-04-01 -1.2688272633472224000
1990-05-01 -1.3409760955163570000
1990-06-01 -1.5855988388576970000
1990-07-01 -1.8511206539884884000
1990-08-01 -2.1511490784216045000
1990-09-01 -2.0295763621351050000
1990-10-01 -1.7974994394308235000
1990-11-01 -1.1976044907781780000
1990-12-01 -0.8457377351256211000
1991-01-01 -0.4540726386421987000
1991-02-01 0.2183631486023306600
1991-03-01 0.3000385138775444000
1991-04-01 -0.1933690378625248200
1991-05-01 -0.5864035220907833000
1991-06-01 -0.8673065798059513000
1991-07-01 -1.1284915957397652000
1991-08-01 -1.2681951923726023000
1991-09-01 -1.1671425798859043000
1991-10-01 -0.9682409740727635000
1991-11-01 -0.5962020793216988000
1991-12-01 -0.2245412410494450000
1992-01-01 -0.0173593620964035620
1992-02-01 -0.2881152817509401000
1992-03-01 -0.4634429486742484000
1992-04-01 -0.4147384892499164600
1992-05-01 -0.5059906206014801000
1992-06-01 -0.6792668832676947000
1992-07-01 -0.5759596305297492000
1992-08-01 -0.3789268327920548600
1992-09-01 -0.4035986590626683000
1992-10-01 -0.4953883355231943300
1992-11-01 -0.5760578041757288000
1992-12-01 -0.6572605095945834000
1993-01-01 -1.1643179710740905000
1993-02-01 -1.1216835674580520000
1993-03-01 -0.8750977467656461000
1993-04-01 -0.4711417514841413000
1993-05-01 -0.4255047455562656000
1993-06-01 -0.0735482673714699000
1993-07-01 0.1529907701932865200
1993-08-01 0.1125695570920458400
1993-09-01 0.0986317621252583700
1993-10-01 0.0192324543675558150
1993-11-01 0.0163323246403096500
1993-12-01 -0.0522255840308940500
1994-01-01 -0.4794501349855604000
1994-02-01 -0.7617185537601644000
1994-03-01 -0.9345665324824325000
1994-04-01 -1.1142549511222613000
1994-05-01 -1.2787439519352755000
1994-06-01 -1.3085088736952242000
1994-07-01 -1.4039528089476756000
1994-08-01 -1.4354097146133850000
1994-09-01 -1.2869363676339833000
1994-10-01 -1.2245897736785200000
1994-11-01 -1.3314705834718323000
1994-12-01 -1.3342870949907004000
1995-01-01 -1.3020691205219441000
1995-02-01 -1.0675022957550557000
1995-03-01 -0.6941017803505336000
1995-04-01 -0.4442478674466292000
1995-05-01 -0.0772601938146619000
1995-06-01 0.1805482652611777000
1995-07-01 0.2582774930391557000
1995-08-01 0.1451555489059157300
1995-09-01 0.0684403363299843800
1995-10-01 0.0233693298567323320
1995-11-01 0.2061726933406127500
1995-12-01 0.1457869111495576600
1996-01-01 0.1067121588970971200
1996-02-01 0.3604171598251977300
1996-03-01 0.2888604991296832000
1996-04-01 0.0829134861981248400
1996-05-01 0.0415321819337147940
1996-06-01 -0.0781861810596120200
1996-07-01 -0.1722267936483228800
1996-08-01 -0.1638481846588767400
1996-09-01 -0.3357303936203109000
1996-10-01 -0.3018628359383283000
1996-11-01 -0.2713602090963944700
1996-12-01 -0.3206259461848582000
1997-01-01 -0.1542222233918370300
1997-02-01 -0.0142108147397402630
1997-03-01 0.1645773842675801500
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1998-04-01 1.3783675751594173000
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2025-06-01 0.3073074445264480000
2025-07-01 0.3414743319849668500
2025-08-01 0.1952923616628036700

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