Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Trend Component of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Trend Component of GDP
Series ID BBKMTRD
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-04-01
Last Updated 2026-06-01 7:33 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The trend component of GDP is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 3.2166785917173160
1960-02-01 3.2167195343004193
1960-03-01 3.2166502655678983
1960-04-01 3.2165758203957620
1960-05-01 3.2166012336600183
1960-06-01 3.2166903631244890
1960-07-01 3.2168070665529944
1960-08-01 3.2169152017093556
1960-09-01 3.2171134271609874
1960-10-01 3.2175004014753050
1960-11-01 3.2181747832197227
1960-12-01 3.2189828542219114
1961-01-01 3.2197708963095417
1961-02-01 3.2203851913102852
1961-03-01 3.2208309923094080
1961-04-01 3.2211135523921780
1961-05-01 3.2212381246438624
1961-06-01 3.2212303234236006
1961-07-01 3.2211157630905330
1961-08-01 3.2209200580037987
1961-09-01 3.2206335887066952
1961-10-01 3.2202467357425184
1961-11-01 3.2197498796545654
1961-12-01 3.2191355851628770
1962-01-01 3.2183964169874932
1962-02-01 3.2175249398484550
1962-03-01 3.2165678886905460
1962-04-01 3.2155719984585500
1962-05-01 3.2145840040972495
1962-06-01 3.2135786253197036
1962-07-01 3.2125305818389682
1962-08-01 3.2114145933681020
1962-09-01 3.2103032575176870
1962-10-01 3.2092691718983026
1962-11-01 3.2083849341205320
1962-12-01 3.2076332530799108
1963-01-01 3.2069968376719746
1963-02-01 3.2064583967922595
1963-03-01 3.2059916242578077
1963-04-01 3.2055702138856614
1963-05-01 3.2051678594928625
1963-06-01 3.2046675754530023
1963-07-01 3.2039523761396724
1963-08-01 3.2029052759264633
1963-09-01 3.2016549670118706
1963-10-01 3.2003301415943883
1963-11-01 3.1990594918725104
1963-12-01 3.1977575972830268
1964-01-01 3.1963390372627280
1964-02-01 3.1947183912484040
1964-03-01 3.1929626861949350
1964-04-01 3.1911389490572040
1964-05-01 3.1893142067900913
1964-06-01 3.1874948081040160
1964-07-01 3.1856871017093966
1964-08-01 3.1838974363166510
1964-09-01 3.1822014510155796
1964-10-01 3.1806747848959844
1964-11-01 3.1793930770476653
1964-12-01 3.1782299401555420
1965-01-01 3.1770589869045334
1965-02-01 3.1757538299795587
1965-03-01 3.1743547359785564
1965-04-01 3.1729019714994644
1965-05-01 3.1714358031402208
1965-06-01 3.1698698477774540
1965-07-01 3.1681177222877923
1965-08-01 3.1660930435478640
1965-09-01 3.1637611844465690
1965-10-01 3.1610875178728084
1965-11-01 3.1580374167154805
1965-12-01 3.1546691690865780
1966-01-01 3.1510410630980905
1966-02-01 3.1472113868620090
1966-03-01 3.1433454294729150
1966-04-01 3.1396084800253890
1966-05-01 3.1361658276140120
1966-06-01 3.1329678406523340
1966-07-01 3.1299648875539057
1966-08-01 3.1271073367322773
1966-09-01 3.1243254356346033
1966-10-01 3.1215494317080386
1966-11-01 3.1187095723997382
1966-12-01 3.1157839222256856
1967-01-01 3.1127505457018643
1967-02-01 3.1095875073442585
1967-03-01 3.1063823530836854
1967-04-01 3.1032226288509630
1967-05-01 3.1001958805769094
1967-06-01 3.0972905452688915
1967-07-01 3.0944950599342747
1967-08-01 3.0917978615804260
1967-09-01 3.0892251420454673
1967-10-01 3.0868030931675197
1967-11-01 3.0845579067847050
1967-12-01 3.0823338297646448
1968-01-01 3.0799751089749610
1968-02-01 3.0773259912832747
1968-03-01 3.0743927858086804
1968-04-01 3.0711818016702725
1968-05-01 3.0676993479871450
1968-06-01 3.0640796997192705
1968-07-01 3.0604571318266190
1968-08-01 3.0569659192691620
1968-09-01 3.0536495215924435
1968-10-01 3.0505513983420083
1968-11-01 3.0477150090633987
1968-12-01 3.0450192731346912
1969-01-01 3.0423431099339610
1969-02-01 3.0395654388392828
1969-03-01 3.0367743954255544
1969-04-01 3.0340581152676713
1969-05-01 3.0315047339405300
1969-06-01 3.0291201701053194
1969-07-01 3.0269103424232267
1969-08-01 3.0248811695554390
1969-09-01 3.0230841653105225
1969-10-01 3.0215708434970407
1969-11-01 3.0203927179235590
1969-12-01 3.0194644826890460
1970-01-01 3.0187008318924713
1970-02-01 3.0180164596328030
1970-03-01 3.0173574025672520
1970-04-01 3.0166696973530267
1970-05-01 3.0158993806473373
1970-06-01 3.0150497625434842
1970-07-01 3.0141241531347664
1970-08-01 3.0131258625144850
1970-09-01 3.0121477858377523
1970-10-01 3.0112828182596822
1970-11-01 3.0106238549353880
1970-12-01 3.0099582653835290
1971-01-01 3.0090734191227653
1971-02-01 3.0077566856717564
1971-03-01 3.0061621260168874
1971-04-01 3.0044438011445430
1971-05-01 3.0027557720411090
1971-06-01 3.0011363931488000
1971-07-01 2.9996240189098330
1971-08-01 2.9982570037664240
1971-09-01 2.9971151924820756
1971-10-01 2.9962784298202920
1971-11-01 2.9958265605445770
1971-12-01 2.9956225853943805
1972-01-01 2.9955295051091520
1972-02-01 2.9954103204283418
1972-03-01 2.9951529675638366
1972-04-01 2.9946453827275255
1972-05-01 2.9937755021312955
1972-06-01 2.9926886166590103
1972-07-01 2.9915300171945350
1972-08-01 2.9904449946217330
1972-09-01 2.9894396375361656
1972-10-01 2.9885200345333933
1972-11-01 2.9876922742089773
1972-12-01 2.9868246927496087
1973-01-01 2.9857856263419786
1973-02-01 2.9844434111727787
1973-03-01 2.9828852354723330
1973-04-01 2.9811982874709680
1973-05-01 2.9794697553990077
1973-06-01 2.9778526338048312
1973-07-01 2.9764999172368167
1973-08-01 2.9755646002433440
1973-09-01 2.9749652070293020
1973-10-01 2.9746202617995810
1973-11-01 2.9744482887590720
1973-12-01 2.9745208405418717
1974-01-01 2.9749094697820784
1974-02-01 2.9756857291137897
1974-03-01 2.9767971886973035
1974-04-01 2.9781914186929170
1974-05-01 2.9798159892609280
1974-06-01 2.9817173440692590
1974-07-01 2.9839419267858336
1974-08-01 2.9865361810785730
1974-09-01 2.9893257151185098
1974-10-01 2.9921361370766750
1974-11-01 2.9947930551240990
1974-12-01 2.9972459059888736
1975-01-01 2.9994441263990880
1975-02-01 3.0013371530828334
1975-03-01 3.0029226232200610
1975-04-01 3.0041981739907224
1975-05-01 3.0051614425747690
1975-06-01 3.0058651929528740
1975-07-01 3.0063621891057110
1975-08-01 3.0067051950139523
1975-09-01 3.0069112219514063
1975-10-01 3.0069972811918810
1975-11-01 3.0069803840091840
1975-12-01 3.0068241474557955
1976-01-01 3.0064921885841938
1976-02-01 3.0059481244468578
1976-03-01 3.0053078518974385
1976-04-01 3.0046872677895860
1976-05-01 3.0042022689769510
1976-06-01 3.0038897468863817
1976-07-01 3.0037865929447256
1976-08-01 3.0039296985788324
1976-09-01 3.0042983888752977
1976-10-01 3.0048719889207187
1976-11-01 3.0056298238016920
1976-12-01 3.0065466781028527
1977-01-01 3.0075973364088340
1977-02-01 3.0087565833042715
1977-03-01 3.0099311736659113
1977-04-01 3.0110278623705016
1977-05-01 3.0119534042947900
1977-06-01 3.0126916921851100
1977-07-01 3.0132266187877947
1977-08-01 3.0135420768491783
1977-09-01 3.0138533962672710
1977-10-01 3.0143759069400840
1977-11-01 3.0153249387656276
1977-12-01 3.0166057814385330
1978-01-01 3.0181237246534343
1978-02-01 3.0197840581049620
1978-03-01 3.0213246244682925
1978-04-01 3.0224832664186008
1978-05-01 3.0229978266310615
1978-06-01 3.0230396705146347
1978-07-01 3.0227801634782816
1978-08-01 3.0223906709309610
1978-09-01 3.0219199303005380
1978-10-01 3.0214166790148766
1978-11-01 3.0209296545018414
1978-12-01 3.0205218745757483
1979-01-01 3.0202563570509150
1979-02-01 3.0201961197416570
1979-03-01 3.0203397675567905
1979-04-01 3.0206859054051320
1979-05-01 3.0212331381954964
1979-06-01 3.0218919724945070
1979-07-01 3.0225729148687860
1979-08-01 3.0231864718849550
1979-09-01 3.0237512782186444
1979-10-01 3.0242859685454830
1979-11-01 3.0248091775410995
1979-12-01 3.0253252740798710
1980-01-01 3.0258386270361743
1980-02-01 3.0263536052843865
1980-03-01 3.0269412346761615
1980-04-01 3.0276725410631540
1980-05-01 3.0286185502970184
1980-06-01 3.0297549551619910
1980-07-01 3.0310574484423090
1980-08-01 3.0325017229222104
1980-09-01 3.0339799117028434
1980-10-01 3.0353841478853580
1980-11-01 3.0366065645709037
1980-12-01 3.0375768277535653
1981-01-01 3.0382246034274270
1981-02-01 3.0384795575865750
1981-03-01 3.0385733841841205
1981-04-01 3.0387377771731770
1981-05-01 3.0392044305068575
1981-06-01 3.0398098741145168
1981-07-01 3.0403906379255092
1981-08-01 3.0407832518691910
1981-09-01 3.0411118011438300
1981-10-01 3.0415003709476944
1981-11-01 3.0420730464790533
1981-12-01 3.0429285973270925
1982-01-01 3.0441657930809980
1982-02-01 3.0458834033299556
1982-03-01 3.0479059790216736
1982-04-01 3.0500580711038605
1982-05-01 3.0521642305242245
1982-06-01 3.0542666478336370
1982-07-01 3.0564075135829700
1982-08-01 3.0586290183230950
1982-09-01 3.0609110278851075
1982-10-01 3.0632334081001047
1982-11-01 3.0655760247991823
1982-12-01 3.0678962424139820
1983-01-01 3.0701514253761440
1983-02-01 3.0722989381173110
1983-03-01 3.0743032700004500
1983-04-01 3.0761289103885288
1983-05-01 3.0777403486445154
1983-06-01 3.0791836076241528
1983-07-01 3.0805047101831850
1983-08-01 3.0817496791773550
1983-09-01 3.0829147415527020
1983-10-01 3.0839961242552656
1983-11-01 3.0849900542310850
1983-12-01 3.0858905659669980
1984-01-01 3.0866916939498434
1984-02-01 3.0873874726664594
1984-03-01 3.0879619725914504
1984-04-01 3.0883992641994222
1984-05-01 3.0886834179649787
1984-06-01 3.0888541012512793
1984-07-01 3.0889509814214830
1984-08-01 3.0890137258387480
1984-09-01 3.0890557102059835
1984-10-01 3.0890903102260974
1984-11-01 3.0891309016019990
1984-12-01 3.0891586198258527
1985-01-01 3.0891546003898225
1985-02-01 3.0890999787860720
1985-03-01 3.0889736141738062
1985-04-01 3.0887543657122300
1985-05-01 3.0884210925605484
1985-06-01 3.0879137264770296
1985-07-01 3.0871721992199420
1985-08-01 3.0861364425475544
1985-09-01 3.0848968087573643
1985-10-01 3.0835436501468700
1985-11-01 3.0821673190135686
1985-12-01 3.0807759005362843
1986-01-01 3.0793774798938410
1986-02-01 3.0779801422650630
1986-03-01 3.0765848573607224
1986-04-01 3.0751925948915915
1986-05-01 3.0738043245684430
1986-06-01 3.0724066404210606
1986-07-01 3.0709861364792275
1986-08-01 3.0695294067727272
1986-09-01 3.0680813554721850
1986-10-01 3.0666868867482240
1986-11-01 3.0653909047714696
1986-12-01 3.0641858276155083
1987-01-01 3.0630640733539276
1987-02-01 3.0620180600603137
1987-03-01 3.0610334088648226
1987-04-01 3.0600957408976080
1987-05-01 3.0591906772888260
1987-06-01 3.0583304486665126
1987-07-01 3.0575272856587040
1987-08-01 3.0567934188934376
1987-09-01 3.0560623226012753
1987-10-01 3.0552674710127800
1987-11-01 3.0543423383585140
1987-12-01 3.0533587196576684
1988-01-01 3.0523884099294330
1988-02-01 3.0515032041930000
1988-03-01 3.0506651505215050
1988-04-01 3.0498362969880835
1988-05-01 3.0489786916658725
1988-06-01 3.0481169133045310
1988-07-01 3.0472755406537190
1988-08-01 3.0464791524630965
1988-09-01 3.0456796593990960
1988-10-01 3.0448289721281507
1988-11-01 3.0438790013166940
1988-12-01 3.0428291008843567
1989-01-01 3.0416786247507708
1989-02-01 3.0404269268355670
1989-03-01 3.0390676575364237
1989-04-01 3.0375944672510190
1989-05-01 3.0360010063770310
1989-06-01 3.0342876957387164
1989-07-01 3.0324549561603336
1989-08-01 3.0305032084661390
1989-09-01 3.0285033048520638
1989-10-01 3.0265260975140404
1989-11-01 3.0246424386479990
1989-12-01 3.0227996012591030
1990-01-01 3.0209448583525150
1990-02-01 3.0190254829333973
1990-03-01 3.0170594870949270
1990-04-01 3.0150648829302800
1990-05-01 3.0130596825326337
1990-06-01 3.0110871588628423
1990-07-01 3.0091905848817624
1990-08-01 3.0074132335502490
1990-09-01 3.0057922466777973
1990-10-01 3.0043647660739023
1990-11-01 3.0031679335480597
1990-12-01 3.0021253736788450
1991-01-01 3.0011607110448360
1991-02-01 3.0001975702246084
1991-03-01 2.9991992846355900
1991-04-01 2.9981291876952083
1991-05-01 2.9969506128208900
1991-06-01 2.9957414771784956
1991-07-01 2.9945796979338840
1991-08-01 2.9935431922529143
1991-09-01 2.9925970852555930
1991-10-01 2.9917065020619280
1991-11-01 2.9908365677919240
1991-12-01 2.9898983825686307
1992-01-01 2.9888030465150974
1992-02-01 2.9874616597543726
1992-03-01 2.9859352416958838
1992-04-01 2.9842848117490570
1992-05-01 2.9825713893233194
1992-06-01 2.9807820855747510
1992-07-01 2.9789040116594316
1992-08-01 2.9769242787334416
1992-09-01 2.9748601041585436
1992-10-01 2.9727287052965004
1992-11-01 2.9705472995090750
1992-12-01 2.9684163404475012
1993-01-01 2.9664362817630130
1993-02-01 2.9647075771068440
1993-03-01 2.9631886482266570
1993-04-01 2.9618379168701146
1993-05-01 2.9606138047848796
1993-06-01 2.9594971487946460
1993-07-01 2.9584687857231073
1993-08-01 2.9575095523939567
1993-09-01 2.9565799318917785
1993-10-01 2.9556404073011553
1993-11-01 2.9546514617066700
1993-12-01 2.9536253739080234
1994-01-01 2.9525744227049153
1994-02-01 2.9515108868970463
1994-03-01 2.9504398725360930
1994-04-01 2.9493664856737340
1994-05-01 2.9482958323616466
1994-06-01 2.9472810274351455
1994-07-01 2.9463751857295440
1994-08-01 2.9456314220801563
1994-09-01 2.9450266275825157
1994-10-01 2.9445376933321560
1994-11-01 2.9441415104246110
1994-12-01 2.9438746684593067
1995-01-01 2.9437737570356677
1995-02-01 2.9438753657531210
1995-03-01 2.9441499587965460
1995-04-01 2.9445680003508237
1995-05-01 2.9450999546008340
1995-06-01 2.9457081218593930
1995-07-01 2.9463548024393194
1995-08-01 2.9470022966534284
1995-09-01 2.9476727922750223
1995-10-01 2.9483884770774025
1995-11-01 2.9491715388338700
1995-12-01 2.9499812699398436
1996-01-01 2.9507769627907408
1996-02-01 2.9515179097819800
1996-03-01 2.9521589570731184
1996-04-01 2.9526549508237130
1996-05-01 2.9529607371933206
1996-06-01 2.9531313407898310
1996-07-01 2.9532217862211323
1996-08-01 2.9532870980951140
1996-09-01 2.9533466813724150
1996-10-01 2.9534199410136780
1996-11-01 2.9535262819795407
1996-12-01 2.9536944011150350
1997-01-01 2.9539529952651904
1997-02-01 2.9543307612750380
1997-03-01 2.9547340713955250
1997-04-01 2.9550692978776003
1997-05-01 2.9552428129722115
1997-06-01 2.9553070964485300
1997-07-01 2.9553146280757250
1997-08-01 2.9553178876229680
1997-09-01 2.9553686050004258
1997-10-01 2.9555185101182650
1997-11-01 2.9558193328866538
1997-12-01 2.9562309236504567
1998-01-01 2.9567131327545395
1998-02-01 2.9572258105437674
1998-03-01 2.9577458040394826
1998-04-01 2.9582499602630270
1998-05-01 2.9587151262357407
1998-06-01 2.9590881555406017
1998-07-01 2.9593159017605860
1998-08-01 2.9593452184786690
1998-09-01 2.9591546525420163
1998-10-01 2.9587227507977927
1998-11-01 2.9580280600931630
1998-12-01 2.9571447977371736
1999-01-01 2.9561471810388706
1999-02-01 2.9551094273073004
1999-03-01 2.9540568429091403
1999-04-01 2.9530147342110666
1999-05-01 2.9520084075797572
1999-06-01 2.9509676565094445
1999-07-01 2.9498222744943610
1999-08-01 2.9485020550287415
1999-09-01 2.9470212466997310
1999-10-01 2.9453940980944773
1999-11-01 2.9436348578001272
1999-12-01 2.9418339915411944
2000-01-01 2.9400819650421940
2000-02-01 2.9384692440276394
2000-03-01 2.9368765249719480
2000-04-01 2.9351845043495355
2000-05-01 2.9332738786348190
2000-06-01 2.9312512894239977
2000-07-01 2.9292233783132720
2000-08-01 2.9272967868988420
2000-09-01 2.9254592567917896
2000-10-01 2.9236985296031954
2000-11-01 2.9220023469441410
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2004-02-01 2.8176781862562050
2004-03-01 2.8141462449738524
2004-04-01 2.8107743773026694
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2008-01-01 2.7327664654927735
2008-02-01 2.7323005110231917
2008-03-01 2.7318271729672390
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2011-01-01 2.6633952801791523
2011-02-01 2.6614425203606515
2011-03-01 2.6597715103693247
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2018-12-01 2.6792259074807325
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2019-02-01 2.6850694703487257
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2019-12-01 2.7054653087232188
2020-01-01 2.7071210837955190
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2020-11-01 2.7494898307823212
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2026-02-01 2.8656969687732460
2026-03-01 2.8656668827338367
2026-04-01 2.8656668827338367

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