Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Trend Component of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Trend Component of GDP
Series ID BBKMTRD
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2026-06-01
Last Updated 2026-08-03 7:32 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The trend component of GDP is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 3.1390644386683206
1960-02-01 3.1390742411442290
1960-03-01 3.1390362533892440
1960-04-01 3.1389933172044180
1960-05-01 3.1389882743907997
1960-06-01 3.1390063334004084
1960-07-01 3.1390327026852660
1960-08-01 3.1390525906973927
1960-09-01 3.1391063065298580
1960-10-01 3.1392341592757282
1960-11-01 3.1394764580280725
1960-12-01 3.1397701335181380
1961-01-01 3.1400521164771720
1961-02-01 3.1402593376364236
1961-03-01 3.1403938153355138
1961-04-01 3.1404575679140647
1961-05-01 3.1404526137116980
1961-06-01 3.1403893802578575
1961-07-01 3.1402782950819863
1961-08-01 3.1401297857135275
1961-09-01 3.1399401219138054
1961-10-01 3.1397055734441440
1961-11-01 3.1394224100658670
1961-12-01 3.1390876371571332
1962-01-01 3.1386982600961010
1962-02-01 3.1382512842609285
1962-03-01 3.1377659628072423
1962-04-01 3.1372615488906694
1962-05-01 3.1367572956668360
1962-06-01 3.1362428459461684
1962-07-01 3.1357078425390936
1962-08-01 3.1351419282560378
1962-09-01 3.1345748797131687
1962-10-01 3.1340364735266540
1962-11-01 3.1335564863126620
1962-12-01 3.1331278313351430
1963-01-01 3.1327434218580468
1963-02-01 3.1323961711453228
1963-03-01 3.1320752224065300
1963-04-01 3.1317697188512270
1963-05-01 3.1314688036889726
1963-06-01 3.1311244997311154
1963-07-01 3.1306888297890020
1963-08-01 3.1301138166739810
1963-09-01 3.1294522023062057
1963-10-01 3.1287567286058295
1963-11-01 3.1280801374930065
1963-12-01 3.1273875451013198
1964-01-01 3.1266440675643520
1964-02-01 3.1258148210156875
1964-03-01 3.1249273627864618
1964-04-01 3.1240092502078127
1964-05-01 3.1230880406108770
1964-06-01 3.1221664297538085
1964-07-01 3.1212471133947624
1964-08-01 3.1203327872918916
1964-09-01 3.1194544126489820
1964-10-01 3.1186429506698183
1964-11-01 3.1179293625581860
1964-12-01 3.1172618244726510
1965-01-01 3.1165885125717800
1965-02-01 3.1158576030141390
1965-03-01 3.1150856455879077
1965-04-01 3.1142891900812635
1965-05-01 3.1134847862823847
1965-06-01 3.1126370199516700
1965-07-01 3.1117104768495160
1965-08-01 3.1106697427363210
1965-09-01 3.1095005967900944
1965-10-01 3.1081888181888453
1965-11-01 3.1067201861105830
1965-12-01 3.1051186606339556
1966-01-01 3.1034082018376120
1966-02-01 3.1016127698002000
1966-03-01 3.0998004052055568
1966-04-01 3.0980391487375205
1966-05-01 3.0963970410799284
1966-06-01 3.0948538214894790
1966-07-01 3.0933892292228706
1966-08-01 3.0919830035368010
1966-09-01 3.0906065382504060
1966-10-01 3.0892312271828217
1966-11-01 3.0878284641531835
1966-12-01 3.0863893433728640
1967-01-01 3.0849049590532376
1967-02-01 3.0833664054056773
1967-03-01 3.0818097138196534
1967-04-01 3.0802709156846366
1967-05-01 3.0787860423900980
1967-06-01 3.0773503950829912
1967-07-01 3.0759592749102698
1967-08-01 3.0746079830188880
1967-09-01 3.0733071266899420
1967-10-01 3.0720673132045273
1967-11-01 3.0708991498437410
1967-12-01 3.0697387633567614
1968-01-01 3.0685222804927670
1968-02-01 3.0671858280009370
1968-03-01 3.0657321852915280
1968-04-01 3.0641641317747976
1968-05-01 3.0624844468610024
1968-06-01 3.0607483537842680
1968-07-01 3.0590110757787200
1968-08-01 3.0573278360784846
1968-09-01 3.0557165416706655
1968-10-01 3.0541950995423670
1968-11-01 3.0527814166806917
1968-12-01 3.0514259121778102
1969-01-01 3.0500790051258900
1969-02-01 3.0486911146171014
1969-03-01 3.0472983998738066
1969-04-01 3.0459370201183686
1969-05-01 3.0446431345731500
1969-06-01 3.0434193115485177
1969-07-01 3.0422681193548393
1969-08-01 3.0411921263024806
1969-09-01 3.0402125137401157
1969-10-01 3.0393504630164165
1969-11-01 3.0386271554800555
1969-12-01 3.0380074567894306
1970-01-01 3.0374562326029384
1970-02-01 3.0369383485789760
1970-03-01 3.0364316131799380
1970-04-01 3.0359138348682170
1970-05-01 3.0353628221062080
1970-06-01 3.0347800337367676
1970-07-01 3.0341669286027510
1970-08-01 3.0335249655470160
1970-09-01 3.0328920980852763
1970-10-01 3.0323062797332465
1970-11-01 3.0318054640066410
1970-12-01 3.0313025036400300
1971-01-01 3.0307102513679820
1971-02-01 3.0299415599250670
1971-03-01 3.0290595978501518
1971-04-01 3.0281275336821030
1971-05-01 3.0272085359597876
1971-06-01 3.0263186076318647
1971-07-01 3.0254737516469947
1971-08-01 3.0246899709538373
1971-09-01 3.0240000374714040
1971-10-01 3.0234367231187050
1971-11-01 3.0230327998147530
1971-12-01 3.0227320212150697
1972-01-01 3.0224781409751780
1972-02-01 3.0222149127506010
1972-03-01 3.0218963238051493
1972-04-01 3.0214763614026348
1972-05-01 3.0209090128068690
1972-06-01 3.0202538747876970
1972-07-01 3.0195705441149636
1972-08-01 3.0189186175585143
1972-09-01 3.0183006558775620
1972-10-01 3.0177192198313200
1972-11-01 3.0171768701790005
1972-12-01 3.0166195784510803
1973-01-01 3.0159933161780343
1973-02-01 3.0152440548903394
1973-03-01 3.0144076274688323
1973-04-01 3.0135198667943506
1973-05-01 3.0126166057477320
1973-06-01 3.0117607386461005
1973-07-01 3.0110151598065817
1973-08-01 3.0104427635463007
1973-09-01 3.0100101652974820
1973-10-01 3.0096839804923508
1973-11-01 3.0094308245631320
1973-12-01 3.0092799351700106
1974-01-01 3.0092605499731730
1974-02-01 3.0094019066328044
1974-03-01 3.0096826673456527
1974-04-01 3.0100814943084657
1974-05-01 3.0105770497179910
1974-06-01 3.0111880805556030
1974-07-01 3.0119333338026760
1974-08-01 3.0128315564405854
1974-09-01 3.0138110384989583
1974-10-01 3.0148000700074222
1974-11-01 3.0157269409956060
1974-12-01 3.0165707696522740
1975-01-01 3.0173106741661937
1975-02-01 3.0179257727261300
1975-03-01 3.0184149634396413
1975-04-01 3.0187771444142850
1975-05-01 3.0190112137576190
1975-06-01 3.0191387197548430
1975-07-01 3.0191812106911580
1975-08-01 3.0191602348517628
1975-09-01 3.0190828131347700
1975-10-01 3.0189559664382920
1975-11-01 3.0187867156604410
1975-12-01 3.0185603609561995
1976-01-01 3.0182622024805497
1976-02-01 3.0178775403884730
1976-03-01 3.0174539898588780
1976-04-01 3.0170391660706732
1976-05-01 3.0166806842027670
1976-06-01 3.0163938261631875
1976-07-01 3.0161938738599634
1976-08-01 3.0160961092011230
1976-09-01 3.0160920482450150
1976-10-01 3.0161732070499890
1976-11-01 3.0163311016743926
1976-12-01 3.0165551449850420
1977-01-01 3.0168347498487530
1977-02-01 3.0171593291323404
1977-03-01 3.0174904987151985
1977-04-01 3.0177898744767218
1977-05-01 3.0180190722963043
1977-06-01 3.0181716461726977
1977-07-01 3.0182411501046540
1977-08-01 3.0182211380909250
1977-09-01 3.0181999506729990
1977-10-01 3.0182659283923643
1977-11-01 3.0185074117905090
1977-12-01 3.0188854385898245
1978-01-01 3.0193610465127010
1978-02-01 3.0198952732815300
1978-03-01 3.0203805102674623
1978-04-01 3.0207091488416500
1978-05-01 3.0207735803752450
1978-06-01 3.0206438916435996
1978-07-01 3.0203901694220674
1978-08-01 3.0200825004860010
1978-09-01 3.0197411958391567
1978-10-01 3.0193865664852892
1978-11-01 3.0190389234281560
1978-12-01 3.0187240968688456
1979-01-01 3.0184679170084485
1979-02-01 3.0182962140480550
1979-03-01 3.0182083172748637
1979-04-01 3.0182035559760720
1979-05-01 3.0182812594388790
1979-06-01 3.0184047802981200
1979-07-01 3.0185374711886320
1979-08-01 3.0186426847452500
1979-09-01 3.0187278574559055
1979-10-01 3.0188004258085277
1979-11-01 3.0188678262910473
1979-12-01 3.0189317922306818
1980-01-01 3.0189940569546487
1980-02-01 3.0190563537901656
1980-03-01 3.0191479967881567
1980-04-01 3.0192982999995457
1980-05-01 3.0195365774752570
1980-06-01 3.0198528313202933
1980-07-01 3.0202370636396560
1980-08-01 3.0206792765383490
1980-09-01 3.0211349084949020
1980-10-01 3.0215593979878470
1980-11-01 3.0219081834957140
1980-12-01 3.0221525269689646
1981-01-01 3.0222636903580600
1981-02-01 3.0222129356134615
1981-03-01 3.0220951505479530
1981-04-01 3.0220052229743180
1981-05-01 3.0220380407053415
1981-06-01 3.0221267053094847
1981-07-01 3.0222043183552120
1981-08-01 3.0222039814109847
1981-09-01 3.0221766729662640
1981-10-01 3.0221733715105104
1981-11-01 3.0222450555331837
1981-12-01 3.0224321953898423
1982-01-01 3.0227752614360446
1982-02-01 3.0233147240273480
1982-03-01 3.0239785115252222
1982-04-01 3.0246945522911380
1982-05-01 3.0253907746865654
1982-06-01 3.0260842913528520
1982-07-01 3.0267922149313460
1982-08-01 3.0275316580633960
1982-09-01 3.0282944602736830
1982-10-01 3.0290724610868898
1982-11-01 3.0298575000276980
1982-12-01 3.0306318569443490
1983-01-01 3.0313778116850822
1983-02-01 3.0320776440981394
1983-03-01 3.0327166851715264
1983-04-01 3.0332802658932487
1983-05-01 3.0337537172513134
1983-06-01 3.0341559563933620
1983-07-01 3.0345059004670370
1983-08-01 3.0348224666199815
1983-09-01 3.0351041137066037
1983-10-01 3.0353493005813120
1983-11-01 3.0355564860985154
1983-12-01 3.0357231884352310
1984-01-01 3.0358469257684746
1984-02-01 3.0359252162752632
1984-03-01 3.0359515956412910
1984-04-01 3.0359195995522510
1984-05-01 3.0358227636938375
1984-06-01 3.0356773035628937
1984-07-01 3.0354994346562614
1984-08-01 3.0353053724707840
1984-09-01 3.0351005713226473
1984-10-01 3.0348904855280368
1984-11-01 3.0346805694031382
1984-12-01 3.0344630367398000
1985-01-01 3.0342301013298694
1985-02-01 3.0339739769651954
1985-03-01 3.0336858707115497
1985-04-01 3.0333569896347030
1985-05-01 3.0329785408004270
1985-06-01 3.0325259406627607
1985-07-01 3.0319746056757440
1985-08-01 3.0312999522934160
1985-09-01 3.0305390153212430
1985-10-01 3.0297288295646907
1985-11-01 3.0289064298292250
1985-12-01 3.0280753146459984
1986-01-01 3.0272389825461620
1986-02-01 3.0264009320608680
1986-03-01 3.0255615733058330
1986-04-01 3.0247213163967750
1986-05-01 3.0238805714494110
1986-06-01 3.0230338707490560
1986-07-01 3.0221757465810257
1986-08-01 3.0213007312306350
1986-09-01 3.0204272936976650
1986-10-01 3.0195739029818967
1986-11-01 3.0187590280831110
1986-12-01 3.0179795775519835
1987-01-01 3.0172324599391880
1987-02-01 3.0165145837954000
1987-03-01 3.0158200802634134
1987-04-01 3.0151430804860224
1987-05-01 3.0144777156060210
1987-06-01 3.0138289409599435
1987-07-01 3.0132017118843244
1987-08-01 3.0126009837156977
1987-09-01 3.0119995926377270
1987-10-01 3.0113703748340750
1987-11-01 3.0106861664884046
1987-12-01 3.0099763469565435
1988-01-01 3.0092702955943187
1988-02-01 3.0085973917575575
1988-03-01 3.0079421389648204
1988-04-01 3.0072890407346673
1988-05-01 3.0066226005856582
1988-06-01 3.0059528244169322
1988-07-01 3.0052897181276280
1988-08-01 3.0046432876168834
1988-09-01 3.0039938115962195
1988-10-01 3.0033215687771560
1988-11-01 3.0026068378712134
1988-12-01 3.0018492647119186
1989-01-01 3.0010484951327987
1989-02-01 3.0002041749673807
1989-03-01 2.9993137304199435
1989-04-01 2.9983745876947667
1989-05-01 2.9973841729961290
1989-06-01 2.9963428476614022
1989-07-01 2.9952509730279590
1989-08-01 2.9941089104331720
1989-09-01 2.9929457247602502
1989-10-01 2.9917904808924030
1989-11-01 2.9906722437128406
1989-12-01 2.9895695537490945
1990-01-01 2.9884609515286975
1990-02-01 2.9873249775791826
1990-03-01 2.9861688777152150
1990-04-01 2.9849998977514620
1990-05-01 2.9838252835025885
1990-06-01 2.9826627785094577
1990-07-01 2.9815301263129320
1990-08-01 2.9804450704538734
1990-09-01 2.9794228863258410
1990-10-01 2.9784788493223937
1990-11-01 2.9776282348370913
1990-12-01 2.9768398159541594
1991-01-01 2.9760823657578244
1991-02-01 2.9753246573323127
1991-03-01 2.9745517084884420
1991-04-01 2.9737485370370290
1991-05-01 2.9729001607888916
1991-06-01 2.9720384635752450
1991-07-01 2.9711953292273034
1991-08-01 2.9704026415762828
1991-09-01 2.9696460044945097
1991-10-01 2.9689110218543115
1991-11-01 2.9681832975280154
1991-12-01 2.9674263237273050
1992-01-01 2.9666035926638656
1992-02-01 2.9656785965493806
1992-03-01 2.9646764948056585
1992-04-01 2.9636224468545063
1992-05-01 2.9625416121177315
1992-06-01 2.9614286893195540
1992-07-01 2.9602783771841934
1992-08-01 2.9590853744358700
1992-09-01 2.9578568741039510
1992-10-01 2.9566000692178050
1992-11-01 2.9553221528068000
1992-12-01 2.9540641006076225
1993-01-01 2.9528668883569615
1993-02-01 2.9517714917915034
1993-03-01 2.9507614119112360
1993-04-01 2.9498201497161460
1993-05-01 2.9489312062062200
1993-06-01 2.9480867778525015
1993-07-01 2.9472790611260340
1993-08-01 2.9465002524978616
1993-09-01 2.9457338983806176
1993-10-01 2.9449635451869374
1993-11-01 2.9441727393294550
1993-12-01 2.9433661687994457
1994-01-01 2.9425485215881860
1994-02-01 2.9417244856869510
1994-03-01 2.9408964331890870
1994-04-01 2.9400667361879393
1994-05-01 2.9392377667768543
1994-06-01 2.9384313688782360
1994-07-01 2.9376693864144876
1994-08-01 2.9369736633080135
1994-09-01 2.9363347725905897
1994-10-01 2.9357432872939926
1994-11-01 2.9351897804499980
1994-12-01 2.9346891612228516
1995-01-01 2.9342563387768013
1995-02-01 2.9339062222760934
1995-03-01 2.9336267245263260
1995-04-01 2.9334057583330964
1995-05-01 2.9332312365020035
1995-06-01 2.9330878520445320
1995-07-01 2.9329602979721650
1995-08-01 2.9328332672963886
1995-09-01 2.9327157209346070
1995-10-01 2.9326166198042270
1995-11-01 2.9325449248226540
1995-12-01 2.9324837929357535
1996-01-01 2.9324163810893906
1996-02-01 2.9323258462294315
1996-03-01 2.9321936726134226
1996-04-01 2.9320013444989104
1996-05-01 2.9317303461434427
1996-06-01 2.9314031053332350
1996-07-01 2.9310420498545040
1996-08-01 2.9306696074934650
1996-09-01 2.9302937751768390
1996-10-01 2.9299225498313470
1996-11-01 2.9295639283837085
1996-12-01 2.9292296193794582
1997-01-01 2.9289313313641294
1997-02-01 2.9286807728832560
1997-03-01 2.9284395139744970
1997-04-01 2.9281691246755113
1997-05-01 2.9278311750239565
1997-06-01 2.9274472297318690
1997-07-01 2.9270388535112830
1997-08-01 2.9266276110742340
1997-09-01 2.9262346788537770
1997-10-01 2.9258812332829676
1997-11-01 2.9255884507948610
1997-12-01 2.9253399182680240
1998-01-01 2.9251192225810256
1998-02-01 2.9249099506124330
1998-03-01 2.9247025108754383
1998-04-01 2.9244873118832320
1998-05-01 2.9242547621490065
1998-06-01 2.9239829547761600
1998-07-01 2.9236499828680930
1998-08-01 2.9232339395282043
1998-09-01 2.9227259034519557
1998-10-01 2.9221169533348093
1998-11-01 2.9213981678722260
1998-12-01 2.9205998525809460
1999-01-01 2.9197523129777108
1999-02-01 2.9188858545792606
1999-03-01 2.9180109523915596
1999-04-01 2.9171380814205725
1999-05-01 2.9162777166722638
1999-06-01 2.9154013752080510
1999-07-01 2.9144805740893520
1999-08-01 2.9134868303775834
1999-09-01 2.9124259057444810
1999-10-01 2.9113035618617810
1999-11-01 2.9101255604012180
1999-12-01 2.9089288460422050
2000-01-01 2.9077503634641550
2000-02-01 2.9066270573464794
2000-03-01 2.9055100751706457
2000-04-01 2.9043505644181216
2000-05-01 2.9030996725703737
2000-06-01 2.9018014515109076
2000-07-01 2.9004999531232283
2000-08-01 2.8992392292908420
2000-09-01 2.8980141448386374
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2000-11-01 2.8956503533743330
2000-12-01 2.8945065921819400
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2004-02-01 2.8340179678855190
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2004-04-01 2.8302172112064050
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2017-11-01 2.7195878419743202
2017-12-01 2.7199767181662590
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2018-02-01 2.7208324739580005
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2018-11-01 2.7278943871861930
2018-12-01 2.7290651222878530
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2019-02-01 2.7314714445148907
2019-03-01 2.7326568385269034
2019-04-01 2.7338054151540327
2019-05-01 2.7348984449083690
2019-06-01 2.7359181575975535
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2019-10-01 2.7389808529322900
2019-11-01 2.7394760560253735
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2020-02-01 2.7417461253697130
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2026-04-01 2.8068607552494247
2026-05-01 2.8068218213494904
2026-06-01 2.8068088433828455

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