Table Data - Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
| Title | Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment |
|---|---|
| Series ID | NROU |
| Source | U.S. Congressional Budget Office |
| Release | Budget and Economic Outlook |
| Seasonal Adjustment | Not Seasonally Adjusted |
| Frequency | Quarterly |
| Units | Percent |
| Date Range | 1949-01-01 to 2034-10-01 |
| Last Updated | 2024-07-01 12:01 PM CDT |
| Notes | Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031, this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment". The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation. |
| DATE | VALUE |
|---|---|
| 1949-01-01 | 5.2550525665283200 |
| 1949-04-01 | 5.2615156173706055 |
| 1949-07-01 | 5.2680130000000000 |
| 1949-10-01 | 5.2745640000000000 |
| 1950-01-01 | 5.2811820000000000 |
| 1950-04-01 | 5.2878660000000000 |
| 1950-07-01 | 5.2946040000000000 |
| 1950-10-01 | 5.3013670000000000 |
| 1951-01-01 | 5.3081130000000000 |
| 1951-04-01 | 5.3147890000000000 |
| 1951-07-01 | 5.3213334083557130 |
| 1951-10-01 | 5.3276824951171875 |
| 1952-01-01 | 5.3337740000000000 |
| 1952-04-01 | 5.3395550000000010 |
| 1952-07-01 | 5.3449854850769030 |
| 1952-10-01 | 5.3500404357910165 |
| 1953-01-01 | 5.3547129999999990 |
| 1953-04-01 | 5.3590116500854490 |
| 1953-07-01 | 5.3629580000000000 |
| 1953-10-01 | 5.3665823936462400 |
| 1954-01-01 | 5.3699220000000000 |
| 1954-04-01 | 5.3730144500732410 |
| 1954-07-01 | 5.3759020000000000 |
| 1954-10-01 | 5.3786239999999990 |
| 1955-01-01 | 5.3812200000000000 |
| 1955-04-01 | 5.3837250000000000 |
| 1955-07-01 | 5.3861710000000000 |
| 1955-10-01 | 5.3885860000000000 |
| 1956-01-01 | 5.3909964561462400 |
| 1956-04-01 | 5.3934300000000000 |
| 1956-07-01 | 5.3959170000000000 |
| 1956-10-01 | 5.3984930000000000 |
| 1957-01-01 | 5.4011983871459960 |
| 1957-04-01 | 5.4040803909301760 |
| 1957-07-01 | 5.4071846008300780 |
| 1957-10-01 | 5.4105580000000000 |
| 1958-01-01 | 5.4142403602600100 |
| 1958-04-01 | 5.4182660000000000 |
| 1958-07-01 | 5.4226584434509280 |
| 1958-10-01 | 5.4274290000000000 |
| 1959-01-01 | 5.4325766563415530 |
| 1959-04-01 | 5.4380855560302730 |
| 1959-07-01 | 5.4439270000000000 |
| 1959-10-01 | 5.4500640000000000 |
| 1960-01-01 | 5.4564523696899410 |
| 1960-04-01 | 5.4630510000000000 |
| 1960-07-01 | 5.4698295593261720 |
| 1960-10-01 | 5.4767700000000000 |
| 1961-01-01 | 5.4838750000000000 |
| 1961-04-01 | 5.4911650000000005 |
| 1961-07-01 | 5.4986753463745120 |
| 1961-10-01 | 5.5064554214477540 |
| 1962-01-01 | 5.5145589999999990 |
| 1962-04-01 | 5.5230420000000000 |
| 1962-07-01 | 5.5319504737854000 |
| 1962-10-01 | 5.5413239999999995 |
| 1963-01-01 | 5.5511880000000000 |
| 1963-04-01 | 5.5615520000000000 |
| 1963-07-01 | 5.5724110000000000 |
| 1963-10-01 | 5.5837473869323730 |
| 1964-01-01 | 5.5955276489257810 |
| 1964-04-01 | 5.6077059999999990 |
| 1964-07-01 | 5.6202225685119630 |
| 1964-10-01 | 5.6330070000000000 |
| 1965-01-01 | 5.6459769999999990 |
| 1965-04-01 | 5.6590440000000010 |
| 1965-07-01 | 5.6721160000000000 |
| 1965-10-01 | 5.6851050000000000 |
| 1966-01-01 | 5.6979300000000000 |
| 1966-04-01 | 5.7105290000000000 |
| 1966-07-01 | 5.7228610000000000 |
| 1966-10-01 | 5.7349150000000000 |
| 1967-01-01 | 5.7467040000000000 |
| 1967-04-01 | 5.7582700000000000 |
| 1967-07-01 | 5.7696720000000000 |
| 1967-10-01 | 5.7809839999999990 |
| 1968-01-01 | 5.7922860000000000 |
| 1968-04-01 | 5.8036584854125980 |
| 1968-07-01 | 5.8151755332946780 |
| 1968-10-01 | 5.8269050000000000 |
| 1969-01-01 | 5.8389010000000000 |
| 1969-04-01 | 5.8512096405029300 |
| 1969-07-01 | 5.8638640000000000 |
| 1969-10-01 | 5.8768880000000000 |
| 1970-01-01 | 5.8902983665466310 |
| 1970-04-01 | 5.9041000000000000 |
| 1970-07-01 | 5.9182920000000000 |
| 1970-10-01 | 5.9328610000000000 |
| 1971-01-01 | 5.9477820000000000 |
| 1971-04-01 | 5.9630160000000005 |
| 1971-07-01 | 5.9785056114196780 |
| 1971-10-01 | 5.9941770000000000 |
| 1972-01-01 | 6.0099400000000000 |
| 1972-04-01 | 6.0256905555725100 |
| 1972-07-01 | 6.0413169999999990 |
| 1972-10-01 | 6.0567060000000000 |
| 1973-01-01 | 6.0717453956604000 |
| 1973-04-01 | 6.0863350000000000 |
| 1973-07-01 | 6.1003866195678710 |
| 1973-10-01 | 6.1138305664062500 |
| 1974-01-01 | 6.1266164779663090 |
| 1974-04-01 | 6.1387150000000000 |
| 1974-07-01 | 6.1501145362854000 |
| 1974-10-01 | 6.1608195304870605 |
| 1975-01-01 | 6.1708440000000010 |
| 1975-04-01 | 6.1802090000000000 |
| 1975-07-01 | 6.1889340000000000 |
| 1975-10-01 | 6.1970324516296390 |
| 1976-01-01 | 6.2045090000000000 |
| 1976-04-01 | 6.2113580000000010 |
| 1976-07-01 | 6.2175630000000000 |
| 1976-10-01 | 6.2230989999999995 |
| 1977-01-01 | 6.2279310000000000 |
| 1977-04-01 | 6.2320165634155270 |
| 1977-07-01 | 6.2353090000000000 |
| 1977-10-01 | 6.2377570000000000 |
| 1978-01-01 | 6.2393110000000000 |
| 1978-04-01 | 6.2399270000000000 |
| 1978-07-01 | 6.2395744323730470 |
| 1978-10-01 | 6.2382345199584960 |
| 1979-01-01 | 6.2359094619750980 |
| 1979-04-01 | 6.2326169999999990 |
| 1979-07-01 | 6.2283935546875000 |
| 1979-10-01 | 6.2232900000000000 |
| 1980-01-01 | 6.2173705101013180 |
| 1980-04-01 | 6.2107090000000000 |
| 1980-07-01 | 6.2033879999999995 |
| 1980-10-01 | 6.1954956054687500 |
| 1981-01-01 | 6.1871230000000010 |
| 1981-04-01 | 6.1783614158630370 |
| 1981-07-01 | 6.1693024635314940 |
| 1981-10-01 | 6.1600310000000000 |
| 1982-01-01 | 6.1506270000000000 |
| 1982-04-01 | 6.1411595344543460 |
| 1982-07-01 | 6.1316870000000000 |
| 1982-10-01 | 6.1222540000000000 |
| 1983-01-01 | 6.1128890000000000 |
| 1983-04-01 | 6.1036060000000000 |
| 1983-07-01 | 6.0944004058837890 |
| 1983-10-01 | 6.0852540000000000 |
| 1984-01-01 | 6.0761310000000000 |
| 1984-04-01 | 6.0669820000000000 |
| 1984-07-01 | 6.0577610000000000 |
| 1984-10-01 | 6.0484213829040530 |
| 1985-01-01 | 6.0389029999999995 |
| 1985-04-01 | 6.0291395187377930 |
| 1985-07-01 | 6.0190570000000000 |
| 1985-10-01 | 6.0085780000000000 |
| 1986-01-01 | 5.9976220000000000 |
| 1986-04-01 | 5.9861100000000000 |
| 1986-07-01 | 5.9739675521850580 |
| 1986-10-01 | 5.9611253738403320 |
| 1987-01-01 | 5.9475255012512210 |
| 1987-04-01 | 5.9331254959106445 |
| 1987-07-01 | 5.9179015159606930 |
| 1987-10-01 | 5.9018550000000000 |
| 1988-01-01 | 5.8850150000000000 |
| 1988-04-01 | 5.8674400000000000 |
| 1988-07-01 | 5.8492169999999994 |
| 1988-10-01 | 5.8304524421691895 |
| 1989-01-01 | 5.8112673759460450 |
| 1989-04-01 | 5.7917870000000000 |
| 1989-07-01 | 5.7721350000000000 |
| 1989-10-01 | 5.7524285316467285 |
| 1990-01-01 | 5.7327650000000006 |
| 1990-04-01 | 5.7132306098937990 |
| 1990-07-01 | 5.6939024925231930 |
| 1990-10-01 | 5.6748514175415040 |
| 1991-01-01 | 5.6561455726623535 |
| 1991-04-01 | 5.6378379999999995 |
| 1991-07-01 | 5.6199610000000000 |
| 1991-10-01 | 5.6025339999999995 |
| 1992-01-01 | 5.5855765342712400 |
| 1992-04-01 | 5.5690839999999990 |
| 1992-07-01 | 5.5530589999999990 |
| 1992-10-01 | 5.5375110000000000 |
| 1993-01-01 | 5.5224550000000000 |
| 1993-04-01 | 5.5079045295715330 |
| 1993-07-01 | 5.4938645362854000 |
| 1993-10-01 | 5.4803414344787600 |
| 1994-01-01 | 5.4673385620117190 |
| 1994-04-01 | 5.4548450000000000 |
| 1994-07-01 | 5.4428380000000000 |
| 1994-10-01 | 5.4312910000000010 |
| 1995-01-01 | 5.4201720000000000 |
| 1995-04-01 | 5.4094514846801760 |
| 1995-07-01 | 5.3990910000000000 |
| 1995-10-01 | 5.3890500000000000 |
| 1996-01-01 | 5.3792760000000000 |
| 1996-04-01 | 5.3697094917297360 |
| 1996-07-01 | 5.3602924346923830 |
| 1996-10-01 | 5.3509736061096190 |
| 1997-01-01 | 5.3416960000000000 |
| 1997-04-01 | 5.3324093818664550 |
| 1997-07-01 | 5.3230805397033690 |
| 1997-10-01 | 5.3136900000000000 |
| 1998-01-01 | 5.3042220000000000 |
| 1998-04-01 | 5.2946640000000000 |
| 1998-07-01 | 5.2850010000000000 |
| 1998-10-01 | 5.2752330000000000 |
| 1999-01-01 | 5.2653630000000000 |
| 1999-04-01 | 5.2553944587707520 |
| 1999-07-01 | 5.2453336715698240 |
| 1999-10-01 | 5.2351846694946290 |
| 2000-01-01 | 5.2249480000000000 |
| 2000-04-01 | 5.2146220000000000 |
| 2000-07-01 | 5.2042110000000000 |
| 2000-10-01 | 5.1937310000000000 |
| 2001-01-01 | 5.1831965446472170 |
| 2001-04-01 | 5.1726136207580570 |
| 2001-07-01 | 5.1619830000000000 |
| 2001-10-01 | 5.1513130000000000 |
| 2002-01-01 | 5.1406154632568360 |
| 2002-04-01 | 5.1299050000000000 |
| 2002-07-01 | 5.1192090000000000 |
| 2002-10-01 | 5.1085615158081055 |
| 2003-01-01 | 5.0979900000000000 |
| 2003-04-01 | 5.0875250000000000 |
| 2003-07-01 | 5.0772020000000000 |
| 2003-10-01 | 5.0670585632324220 |
| 2004-01-01 | 5.0571260000000000 |
| 2004-04-01 | 5.0474324226379395 |
| 2004-07-01 | 5.0380080000000000 |
| 2004-10-01 | 5.0288786888122560 |
| 2005-01-01 | 5.0200760000000000 |
| 2005-04-01 | 5.0116370000000000 |
| 2005-07-01 | 5.0036544800004380 |
| 2005-10-01 | 4.9967167758934000 |
| 2006-01-01 | 4.9870167367941030 |
| 2006-04-01 | 4.9767344758624770 |
| 2006-07-01 | 4.9660111577869740 |
| 2006-10-01 | 4.9550400804934210 |
| 2007-01-01 | 4.9440469801287320 |
| 2007-04-01 | 4.9332685792170060 |
| 2007-07-01 | 4.9229251394417170 |
| 2007-10-01 | 4.9131943247053060 |
| 2008-01-01 | 4.9041917188586770 |
| 2008-04-01 | 4.8959605696027730 |
| 2008-07-01 | 4.8884707596178240 |
| 2008-10-01 | 4.8816232953831600 |
| 2009-01-01 | 4.8752619012894070 |
| 2009-04-01 | 4.8691922653746350 |
| 2009-07-01 | 4.8632059799308740 |
| 2009-10-01 | 4.8571069443978450 |
| 2010-01-01 | 4.8507282826277260 |
| 2010-04-01 | 4.8439365907109990 |
| 2010-07-01 | 4.8366308974418510 |
| 2010-10-01 | 4.8287428629369050 |
| 2011-01-01 | 4.8202440065992690 |
| 2011-04-01 | 4.8111581235038250 |
| 2011-07-01 | 4.8015698130170110 |
| 2011-10-01 | 4.7916221181710090 |
| 2012-01-01 | 4.7814995292536370 |
| 2012-04-01 | 4.7713995210888855 |
| 2012-07-01 | 4.7615027148776580 |
| 2012-10-01 | 4.7519488565600130 |
| 2013-01-01 | 4.7428248574686260 |
| 2013-04-01 | 4.7341672183854590 |
| 2013-07-01 | 4.7259732519496370 |
| 2013-10-01 | 4.7182122932351300 |
| 2014-01-01 | 4.7108351624268040 |
| 2014-04-01 | 4.7037808309909100 |
| 2014-07-01 | 4.6969798378057660 |
| 2014-10-01 | 4.6903562779679890 |
| 2015-01-01 | 4.6838315386341860 |
| 2015-04-01 | 4.6773284655312690 |
| 2015-07-01 | 4.6707745941463510 |
| 2015-10-01 | 4.6641073540871910 |
| 2016-01-01 | 4.6572800633808190 |
| 2016-04-01 | 4.6502667631674590 |
| 2016-07-01 | 4.6430657955497920 |
| 2016-10-01 | 4.6356975117040875 |
| 2017-01-01 | 4.6281924646071390 |
| 2017-04-01 | 4.6205740234794330 |
| 2017-07-01 | 4.6128389885979715 |
| 2017-10-01 | 4.6049403705047505 |
| 2018-01-01 | 4.5967845344146660 |
| 2018-04-01 | 4.5882442327742070 |
| 2018-07-01 | 4.5791828583808150 |
| 2018-10-01 | 4.5694883349128210 |
| 2019-01-01 | 4.5591073495599520 |
| 2019-04-01 | 4.5480723167873570 |
| 2019-07-01 | 4.5365183849326850 |
| 2019-10-01 | 4.5246824205585170 |
| 2020-01-01 | 4.5128759969487735 |
| 2020-04-01 | 4.5014350763273480 |
| 2020-07-01 | 4.4906582406308270 |
| 2020-10-01 | 4.4807563269047770 |
| 2021-01-01 | 4.4719376817534020 |
| 2021-04-01 | 4.4640502059399660 |
| 2021-07-01 | 4.4570799460404660 |
| 2021-10-01 | 4.4509262981698200 |
| 2022-01-01 | 4.4454789260387330 |
| 2022-04-01 | 4.4406330261079820 |
| 2022-07-01 | 4.4362985729222030 |
| 2022-10-01 | 4.4323975399344110 |
| 2023-01-01 | 4.4288621090062470 |
| 2023-04-01 | 4.4256282027831070 |
| 2023-07-01 | 4.4226168299383986 |
| 2023-10-01 | 4.4197513749608170 |
| 2024-01-01 | 4.4169620274342370 |
| 2024-04-01 | 4.4141913390221080 |
| 2024-07-01 | 4.4114154602423760 |
| 2024-10-01 | 4.4086189307153290 |
| 2025-01-01 | 4.4057863107464680 |
| 2025-04-01 | 4.4028990912043370 |
| 2025-07-01 | 4.3999258221251600 |
| 2025-10-01 | 4.3968345239248485 |
| 2026-01-01 | 4.3935970408063310 |
| 2026-04-01 | 4.3901890806004730 |
| 2026-07-01 | 4.3865903289196260 |
| 2026-10-01 | 4.3827844198756940 |
| 2027-01-01 | 4.3787596850076390 |
| 2027-04-01 | 4.3745109550917180 |
| 2027-07-01 | 4.3700422858488090 |
| 2027-10-01 | 4.3653662538647096 |
| 2028-01-01 | 4.3605026550204820 |
| 2028-04-01 | 4.3554760027959980 |
| 2028-07-01 | 4.3503120778852770 |
| 2028-10-01 | 4.3450359452874840 |
| 2029-01-01 | 4.3396704787804500 |
| 2029-04-01 | 4.3342359009942870 |
| 2029-07-01 | 4.3287503449158695 |
| 2029-10-01 | 4.3232303708328015 |
| 2030-01-01 | 4.3176918208428330 |
| 2030-04-01 | 4.3121506949550380 |
| 2030-07-01 | 4.3066237287221180 |
| 2030-10-01 | 4.3011274690381250 |
| 2031-01-01 | 4.2956763053877680 |
| 2031-04-01 | 4.2902791118869750 |
| 2031-07-01 | 4.2849348653137880 |
| 2031-10-01 | 4.2796329048920600 |
| 2032-01-01 | 4.2743543288500625 |
| 2032-04-01 | 4.2690762424140285 |
| 2032-07-01 | 4.2637793686363730 |
| 2032-10-01 | 4.2584478845922450 |
| 2033-01-01 | 4.2530701109347280 |
| 2033-04-01 | 4.2476374602105040 |
| 2033-07-01 | 4.2421400973033190 |
| 2033-10-01 | 4.2365696459960740 |
| 2034-01-01 | 4.2309202161220170 |
| 2034-04-01 | 4.2251895197286390 |
| 2034-07-01 | 4.2193811094258040 |
| 2034-10-01 | 4.2135029391705960 |
