Table Data - Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
| Title | Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment |
|---|---|
| Series ID | NROU |
| Source | U.S. Congressional Budget Office |
| Release | Budget and Economic Outlook |
| Seasonal Adjustment | Not Seasonally Adjusted |
| Frequency | Quarterly |
| Units | Percent |
| Date Range | 1949-01-01 to 2036-10-01 |
| Last Updated | 2026-02-27 3:05 PM CST |
| Notes | Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031, this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment". The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation. |
| DATE | VALUE |
|---|---|
| 1949-01-01 | 5.2550525665283200 |
| 1949-04-01 | 5.2615156173706055 |
| 1949-07-01 | 5.2680130000000000 |
| 1949-10-01 | 5.2745640000000000 |
| 1950-01-01 | 5.2811820000000000 |
| 1950-04-01 | 5.2878660000000000 |
| 1950-07-01 | 5.2946040000000000 |
| 1950-10-01 | 5.3013670000000000 |
| 1951-01-01 | 5.3081130000000000 |
| 1951-04-01 | 5.3147890000000000 |
| 1951-07-01 | 5.3213334083557130 |
| 1951-10-01 | 5.3276824951171875 |
| 1952-01-01 | 5.3337740000000000 |
| 1952-04-01 | 5.3395550000000000 |
| 1952-07-01 | 5.3449854850769040 |
| 1952-10-01 | 5.3500404357910160 |
| 1953-01-01 | 5.3547130000000000 |
| 1953-04-01 | 5.3590116500854490 |
| 1953-07-01 | 5.3629580000000000 |
| 1953-10-01 | 5.3665823936462400 |
| 1954-01-01 | 5.3699220000000000 |
| 1954-04-01 | 5.3730144500732410 |
| 1954-07-01 | 5.3759020000000000 |
| 1954-10-01 | 5.3786240000000000 |
| 1955-01-01 | 5.3812200000000000 |
| 1955-04-01 | 5.3837250000000000 |
| 1955-07-01 | 5.3861710000000000 |
| 1955-10-01 | 5.3885860000000000 |
| 1956-01-01 | 5.3909964561462400 |
| 1956-04-01 | 5.3934300000000000 |
| 1956-07-01 | 5.3959170000000000 |
| 1956-10-01 | 5.3984930000000000 |
| 1957-01-01 | 5.4011983871459960 |
| 1957-04-01 | 5.4040803909301760 |
| 1957-07-01 | 5.4071846008300780 |
| 1957-10-01 | 5.4105580000000000 |
| 1958-01-01 | 5.4142403602600100 |
| 1958-04-01 | 5.4182660000000000 |
| 1958-07-01 | 5.4226584434509280 |
| 1958-10-01 | 5.4274290000000000 |
| 1959-01-01 | 5.4325766563415530 |
| 1959-04-01 | 5.4380855560302730 |
| 1959-07-01 | 5.4439270000000000 |
| 1959-10-01 | 5.4500640000000000 |
| 1960-01-01 | 5.4564523696899410 |
| 1960-04-01 | 5.4630510000000000 |
| 1960-07-01 | 5.4698295593261720 |
| 1960-10-01 | 5.4767700000000000 |
| 1961-01-01 | 5.4838750000000000 |
| 1961-04-01 | 5.4911650000000000 |
| 1961-07-01 | 5.4986753463745120 |
| 1961-10-01 | 5.5064554214477540 |
| 1962-01-01 | 5.5145590000000000 |
| 1962-04-01 | 5.5230420000000000 |
| 1962-07-01 | 5.5319504737854000 |
| 1962-10-01 | 5.5413240000000000 |
| 1963-01-01 | 5.5511880000000000 |
| 1963-04-01 | 5.5615520000000000 |
| 1963-07-01 | 5.5724110000000000 |
| 1963-10-01 | 5.5837473869323730 |
| 1964-01-01 | 5.5955276489257810 |
| 1964-04-01 | 5.6077060000000000 |
| 1964-07-01 | 5.6202225685119630 |
| 1964-10-01 | 5.6330070000000000 |
| 1965-01-01 | 5.6459770000000000 |
| 1965-04-01 | 5.6590440000000000 |
| 1965-07-01 | 5.6721160000000000 |
| 1965-10-01 | 5.6851050000000000 |
| 1966-01-01 | 5.6979300000000000 |
| 1966-04-01 | 5.7105290000000000 |
| 1966-07-01 | 5.7228610000000000 |
| 1966-10-01 | 5.7349150000000000 |
| 1967-01-01 | 5.7467040000000000 |
| 1967-04-01 | 5.7582700000000000 |
| 1967-07-01 | 5.7696720000000000 |
| 1967-10-01 | 5.7809840000000000 |
| 1968-01-01 | 5.7922860000000000 |
| 1968-04-01 | 5.8036584854125980 |
| 1968-07-01 | 5.8151755332946780 |
| 1968-10-01 | 5.8269050000000000 |
| 1969-01-01 | 5.8389010000000000 |
| 1969-04-01 | 5.8512096405029300 |
| 1969-07-01 | 5.8638640000000000 |
| 1969-10-01 | 5.8768880000000000 |
| 1970-01-01 | 5.8902983665466310 |
| 1970-04-01 | 5.9041000000000000 |
| 1970-07-01 | 5.9182920000000000 |
| 1970-10-01 | 5.9328610000000000 |
| 1971-01-01 | 5.9477820000000000 |
| 1971-04-01 | 5.9630160000000000 |
| 1971-07-01 | 5.9785056114196780 |
| 1971-10-01 | 5.9941770000000000 |
| 1972-01-01 | 6.0099400000000000 |
| 1972-04-01 | 6.0256905555725100 |
| 1972-07-01 | 6.0413170000000000 |
| 1972-10-01 | 6.0567060000000000 |
| 1973-01-01 | 6.0717453956604000 |
| 1973-04-01 | 6.0863350000000000 |
| 1973-07-01 | 6.1003866195678710 |
| 1973-10-01 | 6.1138305664062500 |
| 1974-01-01 | 6.1266164779663090 |
| 1974-04-01 | 6.1387150000000000 |
| 1974-07-01 | 6.1501145362854000 |
| 1974-10-01 | 6.1608195304870605 |
| 1975-01-01 | 6.1708440000000000 |
| 1975-04-01 | 6.1802090000000000 |
| 1975-07-01 | 6.1889340000000000 |
| 1975-10-01 | 6.1970324516296390 |
| 1976-01-01 | 6.2045090000000000 |
| 1976-04-01 | 6.2113580000000000 |
| 1976-07-01 | 6.2175630000000000 |
| 1976-10-01 | 6.2230990000000000 |
| 1977-01-01 | 6.2279310000000000 |
| 1977-04-01 | 6.2320165634155270 |
| 1977-07-01 | 6.2353090000000000 |
| 1977-10-01 | 6.2377570000000000 |
| 1978-01-01 | 6.2393110000000000 |
| 1978-04-01 | 6.2399270000000000 |
| 1978-07-01 | 6.2395744323730470 |
| 1978-10-01 | 6.2382345199584960 |
| 1979-01-01 | 6.2359094619750980 |
| 1979-04-01 | 6.2326170000000000 |
| 1979-07-01 | 6.2283935546875000 |
| 1979-10-01 | 6.2232900000000000 |
| 1980-01-01 | 6.2232064072105800 |
| 1980-04-01 | 6.2144459206877170 |
| 1980-07-01 | 6.2056821483064700 |
| 1980-10-01 | 6.1969094298297530 |
| 1981-01-01 | 6.1881203451032870 |
| 1981-04-01 | 6.1793061022800800 |
| 1981-07-01 | 6.1704567803530490 |
| 1981-10-01 | 6.1615614833320040 |
| 1982-01-01 | 6.1526084424044580 |
| 1982-04-01 | 6.1435850852786050 |
| 1982-07-01 | 6.1344780848468200 |
| 1982-10-01 | 6.1252733943609520 |
| 1983-01-01 | 6.1159562731830030 |
| 1983-04-01 | 6.1065113051627300 |
| 1983-07-01 | 6.0969224103273770 |
| 1983-10-01 | 6.0871728495869560 |
| 1984-01-01 | 6.0772452214512820 |
| 1984-04-01 | 6.0671214492786560 |
| 1984-07-01 | 6.0567827573329100 |
| 1984-10-01 | 6.0462096339433900 |
| 1985-01-01 | 6.0353817803821860 |
| 1985-04-01 | 6.0242782379984550 |
| 1985-07-01 | 6.0128780798807520 |
| 1985-10-01 | 6.0011622367497600 |
| 1986-01-01 | 5.9891164148421480 |
| 1986-04-01 | 5.9767344249437430 |
| 1986-07-01 | 5.9640175230853400 |
| 1986-10-01 | 5.9509733113858925 |
| 1987-01-01 | 5.9376143269418300 |
| 1987-04-01 | 5.9239565541955255 |
| 1987-07-01 | 5.9100180361773420 |
| 1987-10-01 | 5.8958176859450780 |
| 1988-01-01 | 5.8813743367058570 |
| 1988-04-01 | 5.8667060427911190 |
| 1988-07-01 | 5.8518296238788325 |
| 1988-10-01 | 5.8367604319052780 |
| 1989-01-01 | 5.8215123118445430 |
| 1989-04-01 | 5.8060977223527120 |
| 1989-07-01 | 5.7905279791928760 |
| 1989-10-01 | 5.7748135828401890 |
| 1990-01-01 | 5.7589645913420920 |
| 1990-04-01 | 5.7429910001350810 |
| 1990-07-01 | 5.7269030919332990 |
| 1990-10-01 | 5.7107117218921660 |
| 1991-01-01 | 5.6944285059311640 |
| 1991-04-01 | 5.6780658833142990 |
| 1991-07-01 | 5.6616370282919960 |
| 1991-10-01 | 5.6451555897733010 |
| 1992-01-01 | 5.6286352426023210 |
| 1992-04-01 | 5.6120890390460450 |
| 1992-07-01 | 5.5955285545584590 |
| 1992-10-01 | 5.5789628277713890 |
| 1993-01-01 | 5.5520082402335200 |
| 1993-04-01 | 5.5325457029884095 |
| 1993-07-01 | 5.5128995105853695 |
| 1993-10-01 | 5.4931281393756600 |
| 1994-01-01 | 5.4732946082361300 |
| 1994-04-01 | 5.4534653188212100 |
| 1994-07-01 | 5.4337088455094890 |
| 1994-10-01 | 5.4140947027895500 |
| 1995-01-01 | 5.3946921178671400 |
| 1995-04-01 | 5.3755688356792300 |
| 1995-07-01 | 5.3567899822909295 |
| 1995-10-01 | 5.3384170108603290 |
| 1996-01-01 | 5.3205067520316890 |
| 1996-04-01 | 5.3031105878163000 |
| 1996-07-01 | 5.2862737648113600 |
| 1996-10-01 | 5.2700348590681690 |
| 1997-01-01 | 5.2544254011361500 |
| 1997-04-01 | 5.2394696658683200 |
| 1997-07-01 | 5.2251846275692400 |
| 1997-10-01 | 5.2115800770927600 |
| 1998-01-01 | 5.1986588936454300 |
| 1998-04-01 | 5.1864174604119695 |
| 1998-07-01 | 5.1748462097758600 |
| 1998-10-01 | 5.1639302809366100 |
| 1999-01-01 | 5.1536502701945000 |
| 1999-04-01 | 5.1439830521394000 |
| 1999-07-01 | 5.1349026484896400 |
| 1999-10-01 | 5.1263811204110200 |
| 2000-01-01 | 5.1183894598256490 |
| 2000-04-01 | 5.1108984554991900 |
| 2000-07-01 | 5.1038795105662300 |
| 2000-10-01 | 5.0973053895934894 |
| 2001-01-01 | 5.0911508752539100 |
| 2001-04-01 | 5.0853933171443000 |
| 2001-07-01 | 5.0800130581648600 |
| 2001-10-01 | 5.0749937271223695 |
| 2002-01-01 | 5.0703223897423200 |
| 2002-04-01 | 5.0659895539952000 |
| 2002-07-01 | 5.0619890294702300 |
| 2002-10-01 | 5.0583176443748200 |
| 2003-01-01 | 5.0549748275089000 |
| 2003-04-01 | 5.0519620661700400 |
| 2003-07-01 | 5.0492822543024500 |
| 2003-10-01 | 5.0469389482292000 |
| 2004-01-01 | 5.0449355499305290 |
| 2004-04-01 | 5.0432744399878300 |
| 2004-07-01 | 5.0419560839493700 |
| 2004-10-01 | 5.0409781369499100 |
| 2005-01-01 | 5.0403345719023300 |
| 2005-04-01 | 5.0400148564621800 |
| 2005-07-01 | 5.0400032032422600 |
| 2005-10-01 | 5.0402779164395690 |
| 2006-01-01 | 5.0408108561547200 |
| 2006-04-01 | 5.0415670392761900 |
| 2006-07-01 | 5.0425043929184300 |
| 2006-10-01 | 5.0435736731073900 |
| 2007-01-01 | 5.0447185577711200 |
| 2007-04-01 | 5.0458759191975200 |
| 2007-07-01 | 5.0469762770521400 |
| 2007-10-01 | 5.0479444288968400 |
| 2008-01-01 | 5.0487002510083600 |
| 2008-04-01 | 5.0491596582576000 |
| 2008-07-01 | 5.0492357079667900 |
| 2008-10-01 | 5.0488398290999290 |
| 2009-01-01 | 5.0478831549442500 |
| 2009-04-01 | 5.0462779346793690 |
| 2009-07-01 | 5.0439389969721500 |
| 2009-10-01 | 5.0407852370313900 |
| 2010-01-01 | 5.0367410974498800 |
| 2010-04-01 | 5.0317380126802100 |
| 2010-07-01 | 5.0257157871502100 |
| 2010-10-01 | 5.0186238778251700 |
| 2011-01-01 | 5.0104225534542700 |
| 2011-04-01 | 5.0010839047711295 |
| 2011-07-01 | 4.9905926825133800 |
| 2011-10-01 | 4.9789469432321690 |
| 2012-01-01 | 4.9661584864152600 |
| 2012-04-01 | 4.9522530703750300 |
| 2012-07-01 | 4.9372703985733200 |
| 2012-10-01 | 4.9212638724813695 |
| 2013-01-01 | 4.9043001116126900 |
| 2013-04-01 | 4.8864582459249695 |
| 2013-07-01 | 4.8678289902689000 |
| 2013-10-01 | 4.8485135148732490 |
| 2014-01-01 | 4.8286221299065290 |
| 2014-04-01 | 4.8082728058617400 |
| 2014-07-01 | 4.7875895547947800 |
| 2014-10-01 | 4.7667007002401400 |
| 2015-01-01 | 4.7457370658728600 |
| 2015-04-01 | 4.7248301146356800 |
| 2015-07-01 | 4.7041100710725690 |
| 2015-10-01 | 4.6837040599828095 |
| 2016-01-01 | 4.6637342942276600 |
| 2016-04-01 | 4.6443163435910800 |
| 2016-07-01 | 4.6255575150373100 |
| 2016-10-01 | 4.6075553725556400 |
| 2017-01-01 | 4.5903964220817900 |
| 2017-04-01 | 4.5741549837936300 |
| 2017-07-01 | 4.5588922704630800 |
| 2017-10-01 | 4.5446556865827400 |
| 2018-01-01 | 4.5314783587561100 |
| 2018-04-01 | 4.5193789034331800 |
| 2018-07-01 | 4.5083614335785600 |
| 2018-10-01 | 4.4984158013691300 |
| 2019-01-01 | 4.4895180696244000 |
| 2019-04-01 | 4.4816312004623900 |
| 2019-07-01 | 4.4747059457322500 |
| 2019-10-01 | 4.4686819201788100 |
| 2020-01-01 | 4.4634888351134300 |
| 2020-04-01 | 4.4590478676610200 |
| 2020-07-01 | 4.4552731384737500 |
| 2020-10-01 | 4.4520732691872000 |
| 2021-01-01 | 4.4528529898698790 |
| 2021-04-01 | 4.4497897662962800 |
| 2021-07-01 | 4.4470104170573490 |
| 2021-10-01 | 4.4444176912989600 |
| 2022-01-01 | 4.4419167792237410 |
| 2022-04-01 | 4.4404667293697795 |
| 2022-07-01 | 4.4389317490436095 |
| 2022-10-01 | 4.4372323670789200 |
| 2023-01-01 | 4.4352964412522200 |
| 2023-04-01 | 4.4335099961407300 |
| 2023-07-01 | 4.4313678808796295 |
| 2023-10-01 | 4.4288242400857900 |
| 2024-01-01 | 4.4256796571856900 |
| 2024-04-01 | 4.4221570752654200 |
| 2024-07-01 | 4.4181849562262370 |
| 2024-10-01 | 4.4137372661012020 |
| 2025-01-01 | 4.4090486808845400 |
| 2025-04-01 | 4.4069062202285700 |
| 2025-07-01 | 4.4041997082688400 |
| 2025-10-01 | 4.4018412126410700 |
| 2026-01-01 | 4.3990905642036890 |
| 2026-04-01 | 4.3959324764249300 |
| 2026-07-01 | 4.3923719651200700 |
| 2026-10-01 | 4.3884254145811800 |
| 2027-01-01 | 4.3841154265968500 |
| 2027-04-01 | 4.3794691718761400 |
| 2027-07-01 | 4.3744956104292300 |
| 2027-10-01 | 4.3692001345010700 |
| 2028-01-01 | 4.3636019981992800 |
| 2028-04-01 | 4.3577544546865000 |
| 2028-07-01 | 4.3516746274247700 |
| 2028-10-01 | 4.3453701752742890 |
| 2029-01-01 | 4.3388676640812300 |
| 2029-04-01 | 4.3322425547427000 |
| 2029-07-01 | 4.3255150725756600 |
| 2029-10-01 | 4.3186878879252800 |
| 2030-01-01 | 4.3117842509847400 |
| 2030-04-01 | 4.3048865458953800 |
| 2030-07-01 | 4.2982624005787000 |
| 2030-10-01 | 4.2918459244357200 |
| 2031-01-01 | 4.2856653067400090 |
| 2031-04-01 | 4.2797294630505900 |
| 2031-07-01 | 4.2740413609430490 |
| 2031-10-01 | 4.2685456176753700 |
| 2032-01-01 | 4.2631984689515800 |
| 2032-04-01 | 4.2580102622606400 |
| 2032-07-01 | 4.2529316147193100 |
| 2032-10-01 | 4.2478948962458400 |
| 2033-01-01 | 4.2428541861410300 |
| 2033-04-01 | 4.2378244178961700 |
| 2033-07-01 | 4.2327705864460490 |
| 2033-10-01 | 4.2276458628732700 |
| 2034-01-01 | 4.2224295876992400 |
| 2034-04-01 | 4.2171656282511900 |
| 2034-07-01 | 4.2118500124166800 |
| 2034-10-01 | 4.2064677555939700 |
| 2035-01-01 | 4.2010298873046300 |
| 2035-04-01 | 4.1956108408772600 |
| 2035-07-01 | 4.1902265934124000 |
| 2035-10-01 | 4.1848682615871400 |
| 2036-01-01 | 4.1795350832857000 |
| 2036-04-01 | 4.1742668951261100 |
| 2036-07-01 | 4.1690598248952800 |
| 2036-10-01 | 4.1638948916298800 |