Title: Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment Series ID: NROU Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office Release: Budget and Economic Outlook Seasonal Adjustment: Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Quarterly Units: Percent Date Range: 1949-01-01 to 2033-10-01 Last Updated: 2023-03-21 3:19 PM CDT Notes: Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 (https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57218), this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment". The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation. DATE VALUE 1949-01-01 5.2550525665283200 1949-04-01 5.2615156173706055 1949-07-01 5.2680130000000000 1949-10-01 5.2745640000000000 1950-01-01 5.2811820000000000 1950-04-01 5.2878660000000000 1950-07-01 5.2946040000000000 1950-10-01 5.3013670000000000 1951-01-01 5.3081130000000000 1951-04-01 5.3147890000000000 1951-07-01 5.3213334083557130 1951-10-01 5.3276824951171875 1952-01-01 5.3337740000000000 1952-04-01 5.3395550000000010 1952-07-01 5.3449854850769030 1952-10-01 5.3500404357910165 1953-01-01 5.3547129999999990 1953-04-01 5.3590116500854490 1953-07-01 5.3629580000000000 1953-10-01 5.3665823936462400 1954-01-01 5.3699220000000000 1954-04-01 5.3730144500732410 1954-07-01 5.3759020000000000 1954-10-01 5.3786239999999990 1955-01-01 5.3812200000000000 1955-04-01 5.3837250000000000 1955-07-01 5.3861710000000000 1955-10-01 5.3885860000000000 1956-01-01 5.3909964561462400 1956-04-01 5.3934300000000000 1956-07-01 5.3959170000000000 1956-10-01 5.3984930000000000 1957-01-01 5.4011983871459960 1957-04-01 5.4040803909301760 1957-07-01 5.4071846008300780 1957-10-01 5.4105580000000000 1958-01-01 5.4142403602600100 1958-04-01 5.4182660000000000 1958-07-01 5.4226584434509280 1958-10-01 5.4274290000000000 1959-01-01 5.4325766563415530 1959-04-01 5.4380855560302730 1959-07-01 5.4439270000000000 1959-10-01 5.4500640000000000 1960-01-01 5.4564523696899410 1960-04-01 5.4630510000000000 1960-07-01 5.4698295593261720 1960-10-01 5.4767700000000000 1961-01-01 5.4838750000000000 1961-04-01 5.4911650000000005 1961-07-01 5.4986753463745120 1961-10-01 5.5064554214477540 1962-01-01 5.5145589999999990 1962-04-01 5.5230420000000000 1962-07-01 5.5319504737854000 1962-10-01 5.5413239999999995 1963-01-01 5.5511880000000000 1963-04-01 5.5615520000000000 1963-07-01 5.5724110000000000 1963-10-01 5.5837473869323730 1964-01-01 5.5955276489257810 1964-04-01 5.6077059999999990 1964-07-01 5.6202225685119630 1964-10-01 5.6330070000000000 1965-01-01 5.6459769999999990 1965-04-01 5.6590440000000010 1965-07-01 5.6721160000000000 1965-10-01 5.6851050000000000 1966-01-01 5.6979300000000000 1966-04-01 5.7105290000000000 1966-07-01 5.7228610000000000 1966-10-01 5.7349150000000000 1967-01-01 5.7467040000000000 1967-04-01 5.7582700000000000 1967-07-01 5.7696720000000000 1967-10-01 5.7809839999999990 1968-01-01 5.7922860000000000 1968-04-01 5.8036584854125980 1968-07-01 5.8151755332946780 1968-10-01 5.8269050000000000 1969-01-01 5.8389010000000000 1969-04-01 5.8512096405029300 1969-07-01 5.8638640000000000 1969-10-01 5.8768880000000000 1970-01-01 5.8902983665466310 1970-04-01 5.9041000000000000 1970-07-01 5.9182920000000000 1970-10-01 5.9328610000000000 1971-01-01 5.9477820000000000 1971-04-01 5.9630160000000005 1971-07-01 5.9785056114196780 1971-10-01 5.9941770000000000 1972-01-01 6.0099400000000000 1972-04-01 6.0256905555725100 1972-07-01 6.0413169999999990 1972-10-01 6.0567060000000000 1973-01-01 6.0717453956604000 1973-04-01 6.0863350000000000 1973-07-01 6.1003866195678710 1973-10-01 6.1138305664062500 1974-01-01 6.1266164779663090 1974-04-01 6.1387150000000000 1974-07-01 6.1501145362854000 1974-10-01 6.1608195304870605 1975-01-01 6.1708440000000010 1975-04-01 6.1802090000000000 1975-07-01 6.1889340000000000 1975-10-01 6.1970324516296390 1976-01-01 6.2045090000000000 1976-04-01 6.2113580000000010 1976-07-01 6.2175630000000000 1976-10-01 6.2230989999999995 1977-01-01 6.2279310000000000 1977-04-01 6.2320165634155270 1977-07-01 6.2353090000000000 1977-10-01 6.2377570000000000 1978-01-01 6.2393110000000000 1978-04-01 6.2399270000000000 1978-07-01 6.2395744323730470 1978-10-01 6.2382345199584960 1979-01-01 6.2359094619750980 1979-04-01 6.2326169999999990 1979-07-01 6.2283935546875000 1979-10-01 6.2232900000000000 1980-01-01 6.2173705101013180 1980-04-01 6.2107090000000000 1980-07-01 6.2033879999999995 1980-10-01 6.1954956054687500 1981-01-01 6.1871230000000010 1981-04-01 6.1783614158630370 1981-07-01 6.1693024635314940 1981-10-01 6.1600310000000000 1982-01-01 6.1506270000000000 1982-04-01 6.1411595344543460 1982-07-01 6.1316870000000000 1982-10-01 6.1222540000000000 1983-01-01 6.1128890000000000 1983-04-01 6.1036060000000000 1983-07-01 6.0944004058837890 1983-10-01 6.0852540000000000 1984-01-01 6.0761310000000000 1984-04-01 6.0669820000000000 1984-07-01 6.0577610000000000 1984-10-01 6.0484213829040530 1985-01-01 6.0389029999999995 1985-04-01 6.0291395187377930 1985-07-01 6.0190570000000000 1985-10-01 6.0085780000000000 1986-01-01 5.9976220000000000 1986-04-01 5.9861100000000000 1986-07-01 5.9739675521850580 1986-10-01 5.9611253738403320 1987-01-01 5.9475255012512210 1987-04-01 5.9331254959106445 1987-07-01 5.9179015159606930 1987-10-01 5.9018550000000000 1988-01-01 5.8850150000000000 1988-04-01 5.8674400000000000 1988-07-01 5.8492169999999994 1988-10-01 5.8304524421691895 1989-01-01 5.8112673759460450 1989-04-01 5.7917870000000000 1989-07-01 5.7721350000000000 1989-10-01 5.7524285316467285 1990-01-01 5.7327650000000006 1990-04-01 5.7132306098937990 1990-07-01 5.6939024925231930 1990-10-01 5.6748514175415040 1991-01-01 5.6561455726623535 1991-04-01 5.6378379999999995 1991-07-01 5.6199610000000000 1991-10-01 5.6025339999999995 1992-01-01 5.5855765342712400 1992-04-01 5.5690839999999990 1992-07-01 5.5530589999999990 1992-10-01 5.5375110000000000 1993-01-01 5.5224550000000000 1993-04-01 5.5079045295715330 1993-07-01 5.4938645362854000 1993-10-01 5.4803414344787600 1994-01-01 5.4673385620117190 1994-04-01 5.4548450000000000 1994-07-01 5.4428380000000000 1994-10-01 5.4312910000000010 1995-01-01 5.4201720000000000 1995-04-01 5.4094514846801760 1995-07-01 5.3990910000000000 1995-10-01 5.3890500000000000 1996-01-01 5.3792760000000000 1996-04-01 5.3697094917297360 1996-07-01 5.3602924346923830 1996-10-01 5.3509736061096190 1997-01-01 5.3416960000000000 1997-04-01 5.3324093818664550 1997-07-01 5.3230805397033690 1997-10-01 5.3136900000000000 1998-01-01 5.3042220000000000 1998-04-01 5.2946640000000000 1998-07-01 5.2850010000000000 1998-10-01 5.2752330000000000 1999-01-01 5.2653630000000000 1999-04-01 5.2553944587707520 1999-07-01 5.2453336715698240 1999-10-01 5.2351846694946290 2000-01-01 5.2249480000000000 2000-04-01 5.2146220000000000 2000-07-01 5.2042110000000000 2000-10-01 5.1937310000000000 2001-01-01 5.1831965446472170 2001-04-01 5.1726136207580570 2001-07-01 5.1619830000000000 2001-10-01 5.1513130000000000 2002-01-01 5.1406154632568360 2002-04-01 5.1299050000000000 2002-07-01 5.1192090000000000 2002-10-01 5.1085615158081055 2003-01-01 5.0979900000000000 2003-04-01 5.0875250000000000 2003-07-01 5.0772020000000000 2003-10-01 5.0670585632324220 2004-01-01 5.0571260000000000 2004-04-01 5.0474324226379395 2004-07-01 5.0380080000000000 2004-10-01 5.0288786888122560 2005-01-01 5.0200760000000000 2005-04-01 5.0116370000000000 2005-07-01 5.0036544800004380 2005-10-01 4.9967167758934000 2006-01-01 4.9870167367941030 2006-04-01 4.9767344758624770 2006-07-01 4.9660111577869740 2006-10-01 4.9550400804934210 2007-01-01 4.9440469801287320 2007-04-01 4.9332685792170060 2007-07-01 4.9229251394417170 2007-10-01 4.9131943247053060 2008-01-01 4.9041917188586770 2008-04-01 4.8959605696027730 2008-07-01 4.8884707596178240 2008-10-01 4.8816232953831600 2009-01-01 4.8752619012894070 2009-04-01 4.8691922653746350 2009-07-01 4.8632059799308740 2009-10-01 4.8571069443978450 2010-01-01 4.8507282826277260 2010-04-01 4.8439365907109990 2010-07-01 4.8366308974418510 2010-10-01 4.8287428629369050 2011-01-01 4.8202440065992690 2011-04-01 4.8111581235038250 2011-07-01 4.8015698130170110 2011-10-01 4.7916221181710090 2012-01-01 4.7814995292536370 2012-04-01 4.7713995210888855 2012-07-01 4.7615027148776580 2012-10-01 4.7519488565600130 2013-01-01 4.7428248574686260 2013-04-01 4.7341672183854590 2013-07-01 4.7259732519496370 2013-10-01 4.7182122932351300 2014-01-01 4.7108351624268040 2014-04-01 4.7037808309909100 2014-07-01 4.6969798378057660 2014-10-01 4.6903562779679890 2015-01-01 4.6838315386341860 2015-04-01 4.6773284655312690 2015-07-01 4.6707745941463510 2015-10-01 4.6641073540871910 2016-01-01 4.6572800633808190 2016-04-01 4.6502667631674590 2016-07-01 4.6430657955497920 2016-10-01 4.6356975117040875 2017-01-01 4.6281924646071390 2017-04-01 4.6205740234794330 2017-07-01 4.6128389885979715 2017-10-01 4.6049403705047505 2018-01-01 4.5967845344146660 2018-04-01 4.5882442327742070 2018-07-01 4.5791828583808150 2018-10-01 4.5694883349128210 2019-01-01 4.5591073495599520 2019-04-01 4.5480723167873570 2019-07-01 4.5365183849326850 2019-10-01 4.5246824205585170 2020-01-01 4.5128759969487735 2020-04-01 4.5014350763273480 2020-07-01 4.4906582406308270 2020-10-01 4.4807563269047770 2021-01-01 4.4718328337534015 2021-04-01 4.4638915012462210 2021-07-01 4.4568651800304740 2021-10-01 4.4506510615985775 2022-01-01 4.4451366050000000 2022-04-01 4.4402135930000000 2022-07-01 4.4357837460000000 2022-10-01 4.4317595775412615 2023-01-01 4.4280638060062470 2023-04-01 4.4246289378181570 2023-07-01 4.4213967473284910 2023-10-01 4.4183174302609050 2024-01-01 4.4153479874342370 2024-04-01 4.4124499475062990 2024-07-01 4.4095871010270310 2024-10-01 4.4067237934081220 2025-01-01 4.4038243907464670 2025-04-01 4.4008539171387730 2025-07-01 4.3977793655964450 2025-10-01 4.3945709269473390 2026-01-01 4.3912026158063310 2026-04-01 4.3876522577691650 2026-07-01 4.3839014456248320 2026-10-01 4.3799356680148090 2027-01-01 4.3757451110076390 2027-04-01 4.3713260274043890 2027-07-01 4.3666821649317040 2027-10-01 4.3618253596763800 2028-01-01 4.3567746670204830 2028-04-01 4.3515540846891190 2028-07-01 4.3461897765984940 2028-10-01 4.3407074157141885 2029-01-01 4.3351304837804500 2029-04-01 4.3294797312497530 2029-07-01 4.3237734983551075 2029-10-01 4.3180284724861920 2030-01-01 4.3122606228428330 2030-04-01 4.3064859786806730 2030-07-01 4.3007209133769475 2030-10-01 4.2949815137947340 2031-01-01 4.2892817093877680 2031-04-01 4.2836304951977190 2031-07-01 4.2780292927552330 2031-10-01 4.2724704669934830 2032-01-01 4.2669381418500630 2032-04-01 4.2614112177266690 2032-07-01 4.2558672907157660 2032-10-01 4.2502861803986930 2033-01-01 4.2446518499347280 2033-04-01 4.2389525456648210 2033-07-01 4.2331800314193035 2033-10-01 4.2273287212157320