Table Data - Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment
| Title | Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment |
|---|---|
| Series ID | NROU |
| Source | U.S. Congressional Budget Office |
| Release | Budget and Economic Outlook |
| Seasonal Adjustment | Not Seasonally Adjusted |
| Frequency | Quarterly |
| Units | Percent |
| Date Range | 1949-01-01 to 2035-10-01 |
| Last Updated | 2025-03-17 3:44 PM CDT |
| Notes | Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031, this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment". The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation. |
| DATE | VALUE |
|---|---|
| 1949-01-01 | 5.2550525670000000 |
| 1949-04-01 | 5.2615156170000000 |
| 1949-07-01 | 5.2680130000000000 |
| 1949-10-01 | 5.2745640000000000 |
| 1950-01-01 | 5.2811820000000000 |
| 1950-04-01 | 5.2878660000000000 |
| 1950-07-01 | 5.2946040000000000 |
| 1950-10-01 | 5.3013670000000000 |
| 1951-01-01 | 5.3081130000000000 |
| 1951-04-01 | 5.3147890000000000 |
| 1951-07-01 | 5.3213334080000000 |
| 1951-10-01 | 5.3276824950000000 |
| 1952-01-01 | 5.3337740000000000 |
| 1952-04-01 | 5.3395550000000010 |
| 1952-07-01 | 5.3449854850000000 |
| 1952-10-01 | 5.3500404360000005 |
| 1953-01-01 | 5.3547129999999990 |
| 1953-04-01 | 5.3590116500000000 |
| 1953-07-01 | 5.3629580000000000 |
| 1953-10-01 | 5.3665823940000000 |
| 1954-01-01 | 5.3699220000000000 |
| 1954-04-01 | 5.3730144500000000 |
| 1954-07-01 | 5.3759020000000000 |
| 1954-10-01 | 5.3786239999999990 |
| 1955-01-01 | 5.3812200000000000 |
| 1955-04-01 | 5.3837250000000000 |
| 1955-07-01 | 5.3861710000000000 |
| 1955-10-01 | 5.3885860000000000 |
| 1956-01-01 | 5.3909964560000000 |
| 1956-04-01 | 5.3934300000000000 |
| 1956-07-01 | 5.3959170000000000 |
| 1956-10-01 | 5.3984930000000000 |
| 1957-01-01 | 5.4011983870000010 |
| 1957-04-01 | 5.4040803910000000 |
| 1957-07-01 | 5.4071846010000000 |
| 1957-10-01 | 5.4105580000000000 |
| 1958-01-01 | 5.4142403600000000 |
| 1958-04-01 | 5.4182660000000000 |
| 1958-07-01 | 5.4226584429999996 |
| 1958-10-01 | 5.4274290000000000 |
| 1959-01-01 | 5.4325766560000000 |
| 1959-04-01 | 5.4380855560000000 |
| 1959-07-01 | 5.4439269999999995 |
| 1959-10-01 | 5.4500640000000000 |
| 1960-01-01 | 5.4564523700000000 |
| 1960-04-01 | 5.4630510000000000 |
| 1960-07-01 | 5.4698295590000000 |
| 1960-10-01 | 5.4767700000000000 |
| 1961-01-01 | 5.4838750000000000 |
| 1961-04-01 | 5.4911650000000005 |
| 1961-07-01 | 5.4986753460000010 |
| 1961-10-01 | 5.5064554210000000 |
| 1962-01-01 | 5.5145589999999990 |
| 1962-04-01 | 5.5230420000000000 |
| 1962-07-01 | 5.5319504739999990 |
| 1962-10-01 | 5.5413239999999995 |
| 1963-01-01 | 5.5511880000000000 |
| 1963-04-01 | 5.5615520000000000 |
| 1963-07-01 | 5.5724110000000000 |
| 1963-10-01 | 5.5837473870000010 |
| 1964-01-01 | 5.5955276490000000 |
| 1964-04-01 | 5.6077059999999990 |
| 1964-07-01 | 5.6202225690000000 |
| 1964-10-01 | 5.6330070000000000 |
| 1965-01-01 | 5.6459769999999990 |
| 1965-04-01 | 5.6590440000000010 |
| 1965-07-01 | 5.6721160000000000 |
| 1965-10-01 | 5.6851050000000000 |
| 1966-01-01 | 5.6979300000000000 |
| 1966-04-01 | 5.7105290000000000 |
| 1966-07-01 | 5.7228610000000000 |
| 1966-10-01 | 5.7349150000000000 |
| 1967-01-01 | 5.7467040000000000 |
| 1967-04-01 | 5.7582699999999996 |
| 1967-07-01 | 5.7696720000000000 |
| 1967-10-01 | 5.7809839999999990 |
| 1968-01-01 | 5.7922860000000000 |
| 1968-04-01 | 5.8036584850000000 |
| 1968-07-01 | 5.8151755330000000 |
| 1968-10-01 | 5.8269050000000000 |
| 1969-01-01 | 5.8389010000000000 |
| 1969-04-01 | 5.8512096410000005 |
| 1969-07-01 | 5.8638639999999995 |
| 1969-10-01 | 5.8768880000000000 |
| 1970-01-01 | 5.8902983670000010 |
| 1970-04-01 | 5.9041000000000000 |
| 1970-07-01 | 5.9182920000000000 |
| 1970-10-01 | 5.9328610000000000 |
| 1971-01-01 | 5.9477820000000000 |
| 1971-04-01 | 5.9630160000000005 |
| 1971-07-01 | 5.9785056110000000 |
| 1971-10-01 | 5.9941770000000000 |
| 1972-01-01 | 6.0099400000000000 |
| 1972-04-01 | 6.0256905560000000 |
| 1972-07-01 | 6.0413169999999990 |
| 1972-10-01 | 6.0567060000000000 |
| 1973-01-01 | 6.0717453960000000 |
| 1973-04-01 | 6.0863350000000000 |
| 1973-07-01 | 6.1003866200000000 |
| 1973-10-01 | 6.1138305660000000 |
| 1974-01-01 | 6.1266164780000000 |
| 1974-04-01 | 6.1387150000000000 |
| 1974-07-01 | 6.1501145360000000 |
| 1974-10-01 | 6.1608195300000000 |
| 1975-01-01 | 6.1708440000000010 |
| 1975-04-01 | 6.1802090000000000 |
| 1975-07-01 | 6.1889340000000000 |
| 1975-10-01 | 6.1970324520000000 |
| 1976-01-01 | 6.2045090000000000 |
| 1976-04-01 | 6.2113580000000010 |
| 1976-07-01 | 6.2175630000000000 |
| 1976-10-01 | 6.2230989999999995 |
| 1977-01-01 | 6.2279310000000000 |
| 1977-04-01 | 6.2320165629999990 |
| 1977-07-01 | 6.2353090000000000 |
| 1977-10-01 | 6.2377570000000000 |
| 1978-01-01 | 6.2393110000000000 |
| 1978-04-01 | 6.2399270000000000 |
| 1978-07-01 | 6.2395744320000000 |
| 1978-10-01 | 6.2382345200000000 |
| 1979-01-01 | 6.2359094620000000 |
| 1979-04-01 | 6.2326169999999990 |
| 1979-07-01 | 6.2283935550000000 |
| 1979-10-01 | 6.2232900000000000 |
| 1980-01-01 | 6.2163866930000000 |
| 1980-04-01 | 6.2096390960000000 |
| 1980-07-01 | 6.2022953810000000 |
| 1980-10-01 | 6.1944591770000010 |
| 1981-01-01 | 6.1861992470000000 |
| 1981-04-01 | 6.1775837550000000 |
| 1981-07-01 | 6.1686827479999990 |
| 1981-10-01 | 6.1595708150000000 |
| 1982-01-01 | 6.1503177200000000 |
| 1982-04-01 | 6.1409855750000000 |
| 1982-07-01 | 6.1316264670000000 |
| 1982-10-01 | 6.1222800810000000 |
| 1983-01-01 | 6.1129721490000000 |
| 1983-04-01 | 6.1037137420000000 |
| 1983-07-01 | 6.0945007270000010 |
| 1983-10-01 | 6.0853151250000000 |
| 1984-01-01 | 6.0761268630000000 |
| 1984-04-01 | 6.0668974950000000 |
| 1984-07-01 | 6.0575831600000000 |
| 1984-10-01 | 6.0481033010000000 |
| 1985-01-01 | 6.0382556450000000 |
| 1985-04-01 | 6.0276299350000000 |
| 1985-07-01 | 6.0156424630000000 |
| 1985-10-01 | 6.0017966880000000 |
| 1986-01-01 | 5.9864527540000000 |
| 1986-04-01 | 5.9706791150000000 |
| 1986-07-01 | 5.9547098990000000 |
| 1986-10-01 | 5.9387381390000000 |
| 1987-01-01 | 5.9228844239999990 |
| 1987-04-01 | 5.9072110180000000 |
| 1987-07-01 | 5.8917414150000000 |
| 1987-10-01 | 5.8764748310000000 |
| 1988-01-01 | 5.8613925160000000 |
| 1988-04-01 | 5.8464627560000000 |
| 1988-07-01 | 5.8316444730000000 |
| 1988-10-01 | 5.8168899800000000 |
| 1989-01-01 | 5.8021472450000000 |
| 1989-04-01 | 5.7873618750000000 |
| 1989-07-01 | 5.7724789120000000 |
| 1989-10-01 | 5.7574444820000000 |
| 1990-01-01 | 5.7422073179999990 |
| 1990-04-01 | 5.7267201550000000 |
| 1990-07-01 | 5.7109409890000000 |
| 1990-10-01 | 5.6948341800000000 |
| 1991-01-01 | 5.6783713850000000 |
| 1991-04-01 | 5.6615323200000000 |
| 1991-07-01 | 5.6443053160000005 |
| 1991-10-01 | 5.6266876880000000 |
| 1992-01-01 | 5.6086858930000000 |
| 1992-04-01 | 5.5903154870000010 |
| 1992-07-01 | 5.5716008870000010 |
| 1992-10-01 | 5.5525749420000010 |
| 1993-01-01 | 5.5338671410000000 |
| 1993-04-01 | 5.5142449350000000 |
| 1993-07-01 | 5.4944403110000000 |
| 1993-10-01 | 5.4745145150000000 |
| 1994-01-01 | 5.4545330289999990 |
| 1994-04-01 | 5.4345643420000010 |
| 1994-07-01 | 5.4146786810000000 |
| 1994-10-01 | 5.3949467229999994 |
| 1995-01-01 | 5.3754383420000010 |
| 1995-04-01 | 5.3562213890000000 |
| 1995-07-01 | 5.3373605470000000 |
| 1995-10-01 | 5.3189162940000000 |
| 1996-01-01 | 5.3009439720000000 |
| 1996-04-01 | 5.2834930000000000 |
| 1996-07-01 | 5.2666062400000000 |
| 1996-10-01 | 5.2503195230000000 |
| 1997-01-01 | 5.2346613490000000 |
| 1997-04-01 | 5.2196527590000000 |
| 1997-07-01 | 5.2053073760000000 |
| 1997-10-01 | 5.1916316130000000 |
| 1998-01-01 | 5.1786250420000000 |
| 1998-04-01 | 5.1662809010000000 |
| 1998-07-01 | 5.1545867240000000 |
| 1998-10-01 | 5.1435250890000000 |
| 1999-01-01 | 5.1330744420000000 |
| 1999-04-01 | 5.1232099820000000 |
| 1999-07-01 | 5.1139045869999995 |
| 1999-10-01 | 5.1051297490000000 |
| 2000-01-01 | 5.0968564889999990 |
| 2000-04-01 | 5.0890562380000000 |
| 2000-07-01 | 5.0817016510000000 |
| 2000-10-01 | 5.0747673300000000 |
| 2001-01-01 | 5.0682304540000000 |
| 2001-04-01 | 5.0620712690000000 |
| 2001-07-01 | 5.0562734580000000 |
| 2001-10-01 | 5.0508243520000000 |
| 2002-01-01 | 5.0457149989999990 |
| 2002-04-01 | 5.0409400710000005 |
| 2002-07-01 | 5.0364976220000000 |
| 2002-10-01 | 5.0323887010000000 |
| 2003-01-01 | 5.0286168250000000 |
| 2003-04-01 | 5.0251873310000010 |
| 2003-07-01 | 5.0221066260000000 |
| 2003-10-01 | 5.0193813390000000 |
| 2004-01-01 | 5.0170174290000000 |
| 2004-04-01 | 5.0150192310000000 |
| 2004-07-01 | 5.0133885089999990 |
| 2004-10-01 | 5.0121235089999990 |
| 2005-01-01 | 5.0112180590000000 |
| 2005-04-01 | 5.0106607300000000 |
| 2005-07-01 | 5.0104340940000000 |
| 2005-10-01 | 5.0105140900000000 |
| 2006-01-01 | 5.0108695350000000 |
| 2006-04-01 | 5.0114617789999990 |
| 2006-07-01 | 5.0122445360000000 |
| 2006-10-01 | 5.0131638910000005 |
| 2007-01-01 | 5.0141584980000005 |
| 2007-04-01 | 5.0151599630000000 |
| 2007-07-01 | 5.0160934220000000 |
| 2007-10-01 | 5.0168782970000000 |
| 2008-01-01 | 5.0174292260000000 |
| 2008-04-01 | 5.0176571540000000 |
| 2008-07-01 | 5.0174705610000006 |
| 2008-10-01 | 5.0167768120000000 |
| 2009-01-01 | 5.0154835960000000 |
| 2009-04-01 | 5.0135004340000000 |
| 2009-07-01 | 5.0107402300000000 |
| 2009-10-01 | 5.0071208160000005 |
| 2010-01-01 | 5.0025664789999995 |
| 2010-04-01 | 4.9970094310000000 |
| 2010-07-01 | 4.9903911910000005 |
| 2010-10-01 | 4.9826638430000000 |
| 2011-01-01 | 4.9737911570000000 |
| 2011-04-01 | 4.9637495289999990 |
| 2011-07-01 | 4.9525287400000000 |
| 2011-10-01 | 4.9401324880000000 |
| 2012-01-01 | 4.9265787090000000 |
| 2012-04-01 | 4.9118996460000000 |
| 2012-07-01 | 4.8961416900000000 |
| 2012-10-01 | 4.8793649660000000 |
| 2013-01-01 | 4.8616426870000000 |
| 2013-04-01 | 4.8430602740000000 |
| 2013-07-01 | 4.8237142630000000 |
| 2013-10-01 | 4.8037110069999995 |
| 2014-01-01 | 4.7831652039999994 |
| 2014-04-01 | 4.7621982730000000 |
| 2014-07-01 | 4.7409366060000000 |
| 2014-10-01 | 4.7195097289999990 |
| 2015-01-01 | 4.6980483970000000 |
| 2015-04-01 | 4.6766826720000000 |
| 2015-07-01 | 4.6555400060000000 |
| 2015-10-01 | 4.6347433670000000 |
| 2016-01-01 | 4.6144094450000000 |
| 2016-04-01 | 4.5946469689999990 |
| 2016-07-01 | 4.5755551570000000 |
| 2016-10-01 | 4.5572223460000005 |
| 2017-01-01 | 4.5397248010000000 |
| 2017-04-01 | 4.5231257410000000 |
| 2017-07-01 | 4.5074745990000000 |
| 2017-10-01 | 4.4928065080000000 |
| 2018-01-01 | 4.4791420490000000 |
| 2018-04-01 | 4.4664872380000000 |
| 2018-07-01 | 4.4548337620000000 |
| 2018-10-01 | 4.4441594560000000 |
| 2019-01-01 | 4.4344290080000000 |
| 2019-04-01 | 4.4255948740000000 |
| 2019-07-01 | 4.4175983819999995 |
| 2019-10-01 | 4.4103710130000000 |
| 2020-01-01 | 4.4038358150000000 |
| 2020-04-01 | 4.3979089369999995 |
| 2020-07-01 | 4.3925012410000010 |
| 2020-10-01 | 4.3875199670000000 |
| 2021-01-01 | 4.3863704210000005 |
| 2021-04-01 | 4.3809978480000000 |
| 2021-07-01 | 4.3758623690000000 |
| 2021-10-01 | 4.3709672250000000 |
| 2022-01-01 | 4.3663200290000000 |
| 2022-04-01 | 4.3619057930000000 |
| 2022-07-01 | 4.3576032270000000 |
| 2022-10-01 | 4.3532706280000000 |
| 2023-01-01 | 4.3487749950000000 |
| 2023-04-01 | 4.3440027169999995 |
| 2023-07-01 | 4.3388901480000000 |
| 2023-10-01 | 4.3333936860000000 |
| 2024-01-01 | 4.3274797450000000 |
| 2024-04-01 | 4.3211204840000000 |
| 2024-07-01 | 4.3225543810000010 |
| 2024-10-01 | 4.3216730180000000 |
| 2025-01-01 | 4.3202481660000000 |
| 2025-04-01 | 4.3182275120000000 |
| 2025-07-01 | 4.3156079940000000 |
| 2025-10-01 | 4.3124060280000000 |
| 2026-01-01 | 4.3086577240000000 |
| 2026-04-01 | 4.3044341410000010 |
| 2026-07-01 | 4.2997630890000000 |
| 2026-10-01 | 4.2946645320000000 |
| 2027-01-01 | 4.2891854290000000 |
| 2027-04-01 | 4.2834353320000000 |
| 2027-07-01 | 4.2774560860000000 |
| 2027-10-01 | 4.2712705520000000 |
| 2028-01-01 | 4.2649319550000000 |
| 2028-04-01 | 4.2585675740000000 |
| 2028-07-01 | 4.2521905480000000 |
| 2028-10-01 | 4.2457778460000000 |
| 2029-01-01 | 4.2393344870000000 |
| 2029-04-01 | 4.2329560110000010 |
| 2029-07-01 | 4.2266635660000000 |
| 2029-10-01 | 4.2204484800000000 |
| 2030-01-01 | 4.2143253440000000 |
| 2030-04-01 | 4.2083873980000000 |
| 2030-07-01 | 4.2026331660000000 |
| 2030-10-01 | 4.1970263840000000 |
| 2031-01-01 | 4.1915507560000000 |
| 2031-04-01 | 4.1862637370000000 |
| 2031-07-01 | 4.1811559480000000 |
| 2031-10-01 | 4.1761928220000000 |
| 2032-01-01 | 4.1713587510000005 |
| 2032-04-01 | 4.1666981860000005 |
| 2032-07-01 | 4.1621771510000000 |
| 2032-10-01 | 4.1577364800000000 |
| 2033-01-01 | 4.1533360660000005 |
| 2033-04-01 | 4.1489967220000000 |
| 2033-07-01 | 4.1446937450000000 |
| 2033-10-01 | 4.1403872800000000 |
| 2034-01-01 | 4.1360565910000000 |
| 2034-04-01 | 4.1317405260000010 |
| 2034-07-01 | 4.1274428060000000 |
| 2034-10-01 | 4.1231544580000000 |
| 2035-01-01 | 4.1188843230000005 |
| 2035-04-01 | 4.1146788490000000 |
| 2035-07-01 | 4.1105146740000000 |
| 2035-10-01 | 4.1063490480000000 |