Federal Reserve Economic Data

Table Data - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Title Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Series ID RECPROUSM156N
Source Chauvet, Marcelle, Piger, Jeremy Max
Release U.S. Recession Probabilities
Seasonal Adjustment Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Percent
Date Range 1967-06-01 to 2025-05-01
Last Updated 2025-07-01 9:40 AM CDT
Notes Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996.

For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see:
Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, "
A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49.

For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3.
DATE VALUE
1967-06-01 0.80
1967-07-01 0.50
1967-08-01 0.00
1967-09-01 0.26
1967-10-01 0.08
1967-11-01 0.00
1967-12-01 0.00
1968-01-01 1.54
1968-02-01 0.02
1968-03-01 0.04
1968-04-01 0.02
1968-05-01 0.00
1968-06-01 0.00
1968-07-01 0.00
1968-08-01 0.14
1968-09-01 0.00
1968-10-01 0.00
1968-11-01 0.00
1968-12-01 0.06
1969-01-01 0.04
1969-02-01 0.00
1969-03-01 0.02
1969-04-01 0.18
1969-05-01 0.10
1969-06-01 0.08
1969-07-01 0.14
1969-08-01 0.28
1969-09-01 4.14
1969-10-01 6.96
1969-11-01 36.56
1969-12-01 40.22
1970-01-01 50.00
1970-02-01 39.60
1970-03-01 40.06
1970-04-01 42.32
1970-05-01 39.40
1970-06-01 37.62
1970-07-01 38.38
1970-08-01 56.12
1970-09-01 75.94
1970-10-01 86.34
1970-11-01 32.38
1970-12-01 0.00
1971-01-01 0.10
1971-02-01 1.38
1971-03-01 0.36
1971-04-01 0.00
1971-05-01 0.04
1971-06-01 0.20
1971-07-01 0.40
1971-08-01 0.16
1971-09-01 0.00
1971-10-01 0.00
1971-11-01 0.00
1971-12-01 0.00
1972-01-01 0.00
1972-02-01 0.00
1972-03-01 0.00
1972-04-01 0.00
1972-05-01 0.02
1972-06-01 0.06
1972-07-01 0.12
1972-08-01 0.00
1972-09-01 0.00
1972-10-01 0.00
1972-11-01 0.00
1972-12-01 0.00
1973-01-01 0.00
1973-02-01 0.00
1973-03-01 0.24
1973-04-01 0.24
1973-05-01 0.08
1973-06-01 0.08
1973-07-01 0.10
1973-08-01 0.22
1973-09-01 0.06
1973-10-01 0.10
1973-11-01 1.02
1973-12-01 29.88
1974-01-01 33.20
1974-02-01 28.78
1974-03-01 26.04
1974-04-01 24.80
1974-05-01 24.02
1974-06-01 34.02
1974-07-01 44.82
1974-08-01 77.44
1974-09-01 82.08
1974-10-01 92.62
1974-11-01 99.98
1974-12-01 100.00
1975-01-01 99.80
1975-02-01 99.70
1975-03-01 94.24
1975-04-01 15.68
1975-05-01 2.26
1975-06-01 0.62
1975-07-01 0.12
1975-08-01 0.00
1975-09-01 0.04
1975-10-01 0.02
1975-11-01 0.06
1975-12-01 0.00
1976-01-01 0.00
1976-02-01 0.00
1976-03-01 0.10
1976-04-01 0.04
1976-05-01 0.10
1976-06-01 0.08
1976-07-01 0.02
1976-08-01 0.02
1976-09-01 0.06
1976-10-01 0.30
1976-11-01 0.00
1976-12-01 0.00
1977-01-01 0.50
1977-02-01 0.00
1977-03-01 0.00
1977-04-01 0.00
1977-05-01 0.00
1977-06-01 0.00
1977-07-01 0.06
1977-08-01 0.12
1977-09-01 0.02
1977-10-01 0.04
1977-11-01 0.02
1977-12-01 0.80
1978-01-01 13.88
1978-02-01 0.06
1978-03-01 0.00
1978-04-01 0.00
1978-05-01 0.14
1978-06-01 0.08
1978-07-01 0.32
1978-08-01 0.02
1978-09-01 0.04
1978-10-01 0.00
1978-11-01 0.00
1978-12-01 0.10
1979-01-01 1.40
1979-02-01 0.70
1979-03-01 1.12
1979-04-01 31.26
1979-05-01 1.18
1979-06-01 1.52
1979-07-01 2.66
1979-08-01 3.22
1979-09-01 2.48
1979-10-01 2.10
1979-11-01 2.82
1979-12-01 4.44
1980-01-01 7.18
1980-02-01 42.52
1980-03-01 87.08
1980-04-01 99.90
1980-05-01 99.90
1980-06-01 89.34
1980-07-01 32.28
1980-08-01 0.42
1980-09-01 0.06
1980-10-01 0.04
1980-11-01 0.04
1980-12-01 0.38
1981-01-01 2.38
1981-02-01 2.04
1981-03-01 1.16
1981-04-01 1.00
1981-05-01 0.88
1981-06-01 1.00
1981-07-01 2.96
1981-08-01 44.92
1981-09-01 81.36
1981-10-01 93.60
1981-11-01 96.26
1981-12-01 96.12
1982-01-01 93.88
1982-02-01 10.86
1982-03-01 60.84
1982-04-01 73.04
1982-05-01 76.56
1982-06-01 80.36
1982-07-01 80.66
1982-08-01 79.24
1982-09-01 76.10
1982-10-01 72.88
1982-11-01 39.46
1982-12-01 15.14
1983-01-01 0.58
1983-02-01 1.66
1983-03-01 0.16
1983-04-01 0.00
1983-05-01 0.00
1983-06-01 0.00
1983-07-01 0.00
1983-08-01 0.10
1983-09-01 0.00
1983-10-01 0.02
1983-11-01 0.00
1983-12-01 0.00
1984-01-01 0.00
1984-02-01 0.00
1984-03-01 0.02
1984-04-01 0.00
1984-05-01 0.02
1984-06-01 0.00
1984-07-01 0.10
1984-08-01 0.10
1984-09-01 0.10
1984-10-01 0.12
1984-11-01 0.04
1984-12-01 0.20
1985-01-01 0.20
1985-02-01 0.06
1985-03-01 0.04
1985-04-01 0.12
1985-05-01 0.04
1985-06-01 0.38
1985-07-01 0.26
1985-08-01 0.02
1985-09-01 0.00
1985-10-01 0.18
1985-11-01 0.06
1985-12-01 0.02
1986-01-01 0.08
1986-02-01 0.32
1986-03-01 0.24
1986-04-01 0.12
1986-05-01 0.06
1986-06-01 0.20
1986-07-01 0.00
1986-08-01 0.08
1986-09-01 0.02
1986-10-01 0.14
1986-11-01 0.06
1986-12-01 0.04
1987-01-01 0.66
1987-02-01 0.02
1987-03-01 0.02
1987-04-01 0.00
1987-05-01 0.02
1987-06-01 0.00
1987-07-01 0.00
1987-08-01 0.02
1987-09-01 0.02
1987-10-01 0.00
1987-11-01 0.02
1987-12-01 0.02
1988-01-01 0.22
1988-02-01 0.02
1988-03-01 0.02
1988-04-01 0.06
1988-05-01 0.12
1988-06-01 0.04
1988-07-01 0.06
1988-08-01 0.06
1988-09-01 0.08
1988-10-01 0.00
1988-11-01 0.02
1988-12-01 0.02
1989-01-01 0.16
1989-02-01 0.62
1989-03-01 0.60
1989-04-01 0.90
1989-05-01 1.18
1989-06-01 0.70
1989-07-01 0.78
1989-08-01 0.22
1989-09-01 0.40
1989-10-01 0.26
1989-11-01 0.12
1989-12-01 0.12
1990-01-01 0.28
1990-02-01 0.10
1990-03-01 0.20
1990-04-01 0.82
1990-05-01 1.38
1990-06-01 2.30
1990-07-01 10.22
1990-08-01 19.36
1990-09-01 37.06
1990-10-01 59.46
1990-11-01 63.32
1990-12-01 62.14
1991-01-01 60.06
1991-02-01 52.74
1991-03-01 35.10
1991-04-01 4.28
1991-05-01 0.76
1991-06-01 0.24
1991-07-01 0.36
1991-08-01 0.40
1991-09-01 0.20
1991-10-01 0.40
1991-11-01 0.42
1991-12-01 0.44
1992-01-01 0.24
1992-02-01 0.04
1992-03-01 0.04
1992-04-01 0.02
1992-05-01 0.02
1992-06-01 0.04
1992-07-01 0.04
1992-08-01 0.30
1992-09-01 0.08
1992-10-01 0.14
1992-11-01 0.04
1992-12-01 0.00
1993-01-01 0.06
1993-02-01 0.04
1993-03-01 0.48
1993-04-01 0.02
1993-05-01 0.16
1993-06-01 0.10
1993-07-01 0.04
1993-08-01 0.06
1993-09-01 0.04
1993-10-01 0.00
1993-11-01 0.02
1993-12-01 0.00
1994-01-01 0.00
1994-02-01 0.04
1994-03-01 0.00
1994-04-01 0.00
1994-05-01 0.04
1994-06-01 0.00
1994-07-01 0.00
1994-08-01 0.00
1994-09-01 0.02
1994-10-01 0.00
1994-11-01 0.00
1994-12-01 0.00
1995-01-01 0.02
1995-02-01 0.26
1995-03-01 0.12
1995-04-01 0.18
1995-05-01 0.08
1995-06-01 0.06
1995-07-01 0.10
1995-08-01 0.00
1995-09-01 0.06
1995-10-01 0.10
1995-11-01 0.06
1995-12-01 0.14
1996-01-01 0.38
1996-02-01 0.02
1996-03-01 0.10
1996-04-01 0.00
1996-05-01 0.00
1996-06-01 0.00
1996-07-01 0.06
1996-08-01 0.02
1996-09-01 0.00
1996-10-01 0.00
1996-11-01 0.00
1996-12-01 0.02
1997-01-01 0.00
1997-02-01 0.00
1997-03-01 0.00
1997-04-01 0.06
1997-05-01 0.00
1997-06-01 0.00
1997-07-01 0.02
1997-08-01 0.02
1997-09-01 0.00
1997-10-01 0.00
1997-11-01 0.00
1997-12-01 0.04
1998-01-01 0.02
1998-02-01 0.00
1998-03-01 0.04
1998-04-01 0.04
1998-05-01 0.02
1998-06-01 0.42
1998-07-01 0.48
1998-08-01 0.00
1998-09-01 0.02
1998-10-01 0.04
1998-11-01 0.06
1998-12-01 0.04
1999-01-01 0.06
1999-02-01 0.02
1999-03-01 0.04
1999-04-01 0.06
1999-05-01 0.04
1999-06-01 0.04
1999-07-01 0.02
1999-08-01 0.06
1999-09-01 0.12
1999-10-01 0.02
1999-11-01 0.02
1999-12-01 0.02
2000-01-01 0.08
2000-02-01 0.02
2000-03-01 0.00
2000-04-01 0.02
2000-05-01 0.32
2000-06-01 0.52
2000-07-01 0.54
2000-08-01 0.74
2000-09-01 0.90
2000-10-01 3.18
2000-11-01 4.36
2000-12-01 8.20
2001-01-01 16.14
2001-02-01 20.76
2001-03-01 26.28
2001-04-01 31.34
2001-05-01 30.76
2001-06-01 31.20
2001-07-01 29.86
2001-08-01 28.52
2001-09-01 28.34
2001-10-01 21.14
2001-11-01 16.74
2001-12-01 7.00
2002-01-01 2.38
2002-02-01 1.42
2002-03-01 0.54
2002-04-01 0.34
2002-05-01 0.18
2002-06-01 0.20
2002-07-01 0.56
2002-08-01 0.48
2002-09-01 0.42
2002-10-01 0.38
2002-11-01 0.28
2002-12-01 0.72
2003-01-01 0.50
2003-02-01 0.94
2003-03-01 0.74
2003-04-01 0.50
2003-05-01 0.16
2003-06-01 0.10
2003-07-01 0.08
2003-08-01 0.02
2003-09-01 0.00
2003-10-01 0.00
2003-11-01 0.04
2003-12-01 0.22
2004-01-01 0.14
2004-02-01 0.04
2004-03-01 0.00
2004-04-01 0.02
2004-05-01 0.04
2004-06-01 0.84
2004-07-01 0.02
2004-08-01 0.06
2004-09-01 0.00
2004-10-01 0.00
2004-11-01 0.20
2004-12-01 0.02
2005-01-01 0.00
2005-02-01 0.04
2005-03-01 0.24
2005-04-01 0.10
2005-05-01 0.10
2005-06-01 0.10
2005-07-01 0.54
2005-08-01 1.72
2005-09-01 9.94
2005-10-01 0.06
2005-11-01 0.00
2005-12-01 0.00
2006-01-01 0.04
2006-02-01 0.08
2006-03-01 0.06
2006-04-01 0.26
2006-05-01 0.20
2006-06-01 0.18
2006-07-01 0.16
2006-08-01 0.06
2006-09-01 0.06
2006-10-01 0.04
2006-11-01 0.02
2006-12-01 0.02
2007-01-01 0.18
2007-02-01 0.06
2007-03-01 0.08
2007-04-01 0.08
2007-05-01 0.22
2007-06-01 0.32
2007-07-01 0.52
2007-08-01 0.40
2007-09-01 0.58
2007-10-01 1.30
2007-11-01 2.10
2007-12-01 7.04
2008-01-01 19.24
2008-02-01 44.78
2008-03-01 62.42
2008-04-01 75.42
2008-05-01 81.60
2008-06-01 86.80
2008-07-01 95.56
2008-08-01 99.70
2008-09-01 99.96
2008-10-01 90.32
2008-11-01 99.84
2008-12-01 100.00
2009-01-01 100.00
2009-02-01 99.88
2009-03-01 99.92
2009-04-01 97.90
2009-05-01 89.46
2009-06-01 65.80
2009-07-01 3.24
2009-08-01 0.82
2009-09-01 0.46
2009-10-01 0.36
2009-11-01 0.14
2009-12-01 0.12
2010-01-01 0.08
2010-02-01 0.06
2010-03-01 0.00
2010-04-01 0.02
2010-05-01 0.00
2010-06-01 0.54
2010-07-01 0.16
2010-08-01 0.06
2010-09-01 0.10
2010-10-01 0.02
2010-11-01 0.04
2010-12-01 0.00
2011-01-01 0.02
2011-02-01 0.12
2011-03-01 0.02
2011-04-01 0.16
2011-05-01 0.12
2011-06-01 0.02
2011-07-01 0.04
2011-08-01 0.08
2011-09-01 0.12
2011-10-01 0.04
2011-11-01 0.08
2011-12-01 0.00
2012-01-01 0.00
2012-02-01 0.10
2012-03-01 0.28
2012-04-01 0.06
2012-05-01 0.10
2012-06-01 0.14
2012-07-01 0.22
2012-08-01 0.20
2012-09-01 0.02
2012-10-01 0.04
2012-11-01 0.00
2012-12-01 0.04
2013-01-01 0.04
2013-02-01 0.02
2013-03-01 0.04
2013-04-01 0.10
2013-05-01 0.08
2013-06-01 0.10
2013-07-01 0.14
2013-08-01 0.02
2013-09-01 0.00
2013-10-01 0.20
2013-11-01 0.10
2013-12-01 0.16
2014-01-01 0.06
2014-02-01 0.00
2014-03-01 0.00
2014-04-01 0.02
2014-05-01 0.04
2014-06-01 0.06
2014-07-01 0.12
2014-08-01 0.08
2014-09-01 0.06
2014-10-01 0.06
2014-11-01 0.02
2014-12-01 0.10
2015-01-01 0.70
2015-02-01 0.82
2015-03-01 0.96
2015-04-01 0.54
2015-05-01 0.60
2015-06-01 0.48
2015-07-01 0.20
2015-08-01 0.34
2015-09-01 0.38
2015-10-01 0.84
2015-11-01 1.40
2015-12-01 0.92
2016-01-01 0.58
2016-02-01 0.74
2016-03-01 0.76
2016-04-01 0.42
2016-05-01 0.42
2016-06-01 0.14
2016-07-01 0.06
2016-08-01 0.16
2016-09-01 0.14
2016-10-01 0.20
2016-11-01 0.20
2016-12-01 0.02
2017-01-01 0.06
2017-02-01 0.22
2017-03-01 0.10
2017-04-01 0.04
2017-05-01 0.06
2017-06-01 0.10
2017-07-01 0.14
2017-08-01 0.14
2017-09-01 0.04
2017-10-01 0.02
2017-11-01 0.06
2017-12-01 0.06
2018-01-01 0.28
2018-02-01 0.12
2018-03-01 0.08
2018-04-01 0.00
2018-05-01 0.18
2018-06-01 0.06
2018-07-01 0.08
2018-08-01 0.02
2018-09-01 0.28
2018-10-01 0.24
2018-11-01 0.18
2018-12-01 0.24
2019-01-01 1.00
2019-02-01 1.10
2019-03-01 0.68
2019-04-01 0.70
2019-05-01 0.42
2019-06-01 0.28
2019-07-01 0.38
2019-08-01 0.16
2019-09-01 1.00
2019-10-01 1.52
2019-11-01 0.40
2019-12-01 0.54
2020-01-01 0.26
2020-02-01 0.10
2020-03-01 100.00
2020-04-01 100.00
2020-05-01 0.08
2020-06-01 0.12
2020-07-01 0.02
2020-08-01 0.00
2020-09-01 0.00
2020-10-01 0.04
2020-11-01 0.22
2020-12-01 0.02
2021-01-01 0.00
2021-02-01 0.00
2021-03-01 0.00
2021-04-01 0.16
2021-05-01 0.12
2021-06-01 0.02
2021-07-01 0.04
2021-08-01 0.52
2021-09-01 0.54
2021-10-01 0.02
2021-11-01 0.06
2021-12-01 0.24
2022-01-01 0.14
2022-02-01 0.02
2022-03-01 0.08
2022-04-01 0.16
2022-05-01 0.38
2022-06-01 0.26
2022-07-01 0.02
2022-08-01 0.06
2022-09-01 0.14
2022-10-01 0.28
2022-11-01 0.74
2022-12-01 0.82
2023-01-01 0.08
2023-02-01 0.20
2023-03-01 0.24
2023-04-01 0.24
2023-05-01 0.22
2023-06-01 0.16
2023-07-01 0.04
2023-08-01 0.06
2023-09-01 0.10
2023-10-01 0.24
2023-11-01 0.06
2023-12-01 0.18
2024-01-01 0.58
2024-02-01 0.04
2024-03-01 0.30
2024-04-01 0.20
2024-05-01 0.04
2024-06-01 0.22
2024-07-01 0.44
2024-08-01 0.26
2024-09-01 0.24
2024-10-01 0.20
2024-11-01 0.16
2024-12-01 0.08
2025-01-01 0.26
2025-02-01 0.10
2025-03-01 0.14
2025-04-01 0.46
2025-05-01 1.64

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