Federal Reserve Economic Data

Table Data - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Title Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Series ID RECPROUSM156N
Source Chauvet, Marcelle, Piger, Jeremy Max
Release U.S. Recession Probabilities
Seasonal Adjustment Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Percent
Date Range 1967-06-01 to 2025-11-01
Last Updated 2025-12-30 5:52 PM CST
Notes Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996.

For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see:
Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, "
A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49.

For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3.
DATE VALUE
1967-06-01 0.94
1967-07-01 0.62
1967-08-01 0.10
1967-09-01 0.38
1967-10-01 0.10
1967-11-01 0.06
1967-12-01 0.06
1968-01-01 1.20
1968-02-01 0.16
1968-03-01 0.24
1968-04-01 0.12
1968-05-01 0.06
1968-06-01 0.04
1968-07-01 0.06
1968-08-01 0.12
1968-09-01 0.06
1968-10-01 0.08
1968-11-01 0.10
1968-12-01 0.18
1969-01-01 0.16
1969-02-01 0.12
1969-03-01 0.14
1969-04-01 0.38
1969-05-01 0.38
1969-06-01 0.28
1969-07-01 0.54
1969-08-01 0.86
1969-09-01 5.00
1969-10-01 8.28
1969-11-01 42.88
1969-12-01 47.14
1970-01-01 56.68
1970-02-01 45.88
1970-03-01 45.74
1970-04-01 46.82
1970-05-01 43.10
1970-06-01 40.84
1970-07-01 41.16
1970-08-01 57.32
1970-09-01 73.54
1970-10-01 81.28
1970-11-01 32.46
1970-12-01 0.22
1971-01-01 0.32
1971-02-01 1.18
1971-03-01 0.48
1971-04-01 0.24
1971-05-01 0.20
1971-06-01 0.24
1971-07-01 0.46
1971-08-01 0.28
1971-09-01 0.08
1971-10-01 0.12
1971-11-01 0.08
1971-12-01 0.08
1972-01-01 0.08
1972-02-01 0.12
1972-03-01 0.06
1972-04-01 0.06
1972-05-01 0.06
1972-06-01 0.08
1972-07-01 0.24
1972-08-01 0.04
1972-09-01 0.02
1972-10-01 0.02
1972-11-01 0.04
1972-12-01 0.04
1973-01-01 0.04
1973-02-01 0.10
1973-03-01 0.50
1973-04-01 0.46
1973-05-01 0.28
1973-06-01 0.30
1973-07-01 0.34
1973-08-01 0.46
1973-09-01 0.22
1973-10-01 0.36
1973-11-01 2.28
1973-12-01 36.18
1974-01-01 40.46
1974-02-01 36.00
1974-03-01 33.18
1974-04-01 32.24
1974-05-01 31.10
1974-06-01 42.34
1974-07-01 53.16
1974-08-01 82.18
1974-09-01 85.96
1974-10-01 93.62
1974-11-01 99.46
1974-12-01 99.50
1975-01-01 99.28
1975-02-01 98.96
1975-03-01 92.44
1975-04-01 15.86
1975-05-01 3.40
1975-06-01 0.82
1975-07-01 0.08
1975-08-01 0.06
1975-09-01 0.12
1975-10-01 0.10
1975-11-01 0.18
1975-12-01 0.06
1976-01-01 0.06
1976-02-01 0.04
1976-03-01 0.10
1976-04-01 0.12
1976-05-01 0.20
1976-06-01 0.14
1976-07-01 0.10
1976-08-01 0.10
1976-09-01 0.12
1976-10-01 0.30
1976-11-01 0.14
1976-12-01 0.12
1977-01-01 0.72
1977-02-01 0.02
1977-03-01 0.02
1977-04-01 0.06
1977-05-01 0.06
1977-06-01 0.08
1977-07-01 0.16
1977-08-01 0.20
1977-09-01 0.14
1977-10-01 0.20
1977-11-01 0.38
1977-12-01 1.82
1978-01-01 16.98
1978-02-01 0.28
1978-03-01 0.14
1978-04-01 0.14
1978-05-01 0.32
1978-06-01 0.28
1978-07-01 0.32
1978-08-01 0.20
1978-09-01 0.24
1978-10-01 0.18
1978-11-01 0.20
1978-12-01 0.58
1979-01-01 2.32
1979-02-01 1.70
1979-03-01 2.52
1979-04-01 31.10
1979-05-01 2.84
1979-06-01 3.62
1979-07-01 4.88
1979-08-01 5.38
1979-09-01 4.78
1979-10-01 4.30
1979-11-01 5.22
1979-12-01 7.10
1980-01-01 11.16
1980-02-01 46.78
1980-03-01 89.28
1980-04-01 98.94
1980-05-01 98.82
1980-06-01 85.08
1980-07-01 31.14
1980-08-01 0.74
1980-09-01 0.26
1980-10-01 0.26
1980-11-01 0.32
1980-12-01 1.14
1981-01-01 4.54
1981-02-01 3.82
1981-03-01 2.92
1981-04-01 3.04
1981-05-01 2.50
1981-06-01 2.80
1981-07-01 5.40
1981-08-01 47.18
1981-09-01 81.20
1981-10-01 92.32
1981-11-01 94.68
1981-12-01 94.90
1982-01-01 91.40
1982-02-01 12.78
1982-03-01 56.42
1982-04-01 67.14
1982-05-01 70.34
1982-06-01 73.66
1982-07-01 73.54
1982-08-01 71.58
1982-09-01 67.96
1982-10-01 64.70
1982-11-01 33.96
1982-12-01 14.34
1983-01-01 1.04
1983-02-01 2.06
1983-03-01 0.30
1983-04-01 0.16
1983-05-01 0.16
1983-06-01 0.18
1983-07-01 0.10
1983-08-01 0.16
1983-09-01 0.04
1983-10-01 0.04
1983-11-01 0.10
1983-12-01 0.02
1984-01-01 0.06
1984-02-01 0.06
1984-03-01 0.08
1984-04-01 0.10
1984-05-01 0.06
1984-06-01 0.10
1984-07-01 0.18
1984-08-01 0.16
1984-09-01 0.34
1984-10-01 0.38
1984-11-01 0.22
1984-12-01 0.30
1985-01-01 0.30
1985-02-01 0.26
1985-03-01 0.22
1985-04-01 0.58
1985-05-01 0.48
1985-06-01 0.78
1985-07-01 0.82
1985-08-01 0.16
1985-09-01 0.16
1985-10-01 0.38
1985-11-01 0.18
1985-12-01 0.20
1986-01-01 0.18
1986-02-01 0.68
1986-03-01 0.56
1986-04-01 0.32
1986-05-01 0.34
1986-06-01 0.60
1986-07-01 0.14
1986-08-01 0.16
1986-09-01 0.06
1986-10-01 0.14
1986-11-01 0.10
1986-12-01 0.12
1987-01-01 0.88
1987-02-01 0.06
1987-03-01 0.14
1987-04-01 0.10
1987-05-01 0.10
1987-06-01 0.06
1987-07-01 0.02
1987-08-01 0.06
1987-09-01 0.06
1987-10-01 0.02
1987-11-01 0.10
1987-12-01 0.08
1988-01-01 0.46
1988-02-01 0.08
1988-03-01 0.12
1988-04-01 0.14
1988-05-01 0.16
1988-06-01 0.10
1988-07-01 0.20
1988-08-01 0.16
1988-09-01 0.24
1988-10-01 0.18
1988-11-01 0.26
1988-12-01 0.24
1989-01-01 0.42
1989-02-01 1.24
1989-03-01 1.32
1989-04-01 1.38
1989-05-01 2.00
1989-06-01 1.56
1989-07-01 1.90
1989-08-01 0.38
1989-09-01 0.52
1989-10-01 0.56
1989-11-01 0.46
1989-12-01 0.48
1990-01-01 0.64
1990-02-01 0.36
1990-03-01 0.58
1990-04-01 1.36
1990-05-01 1.70
1990-06-01 3.24
1990-07-01 8.94
1990-08-01 16.94
1990-09-01 35.32
1990-10-01 57.24
1990-11-01 62.42
1990-12-01 60.60
1991-01-01 57.38
1991-02-01 49.04
1991-03-01 31.80
1991-04-01 3.80
1991-05-01 0.78
1991-06-01 0.48
1991-07-01 0.54
1991-08-01 0.50
1991-09-01 0.52
1991-10-01 0.78
1991-11-01 0.96
1991-12-01 1.10
1992-01-01 0.42
1992-02-01 0.10
1992-03-01 0.14
1992-04-01 0.14
1992-05-01 0.20
1992-06-01 0.20
1992-07-01 0.20
1992-08-01 0.78
1992-09-01 0.42
1992-10-01 0.24
1992-11-01 0.24
1992-12-01 0.24
1993-01-01 0.26
1993-02-01 0.32
1993-03-01 0.92
1993-04-01 0.24
1993-05-01 0.40
1993-06-01 0.28
1993-07-01 0.18
1993-08-01 0.18
1993-09-01 0.10
1993-10-01 0.12
1993-11-01 0.12
1993-12-01 0.06
1994-01-01 0.06
1994-02-01 0.10
1994-03-01 0.04
1994-04-01 0.04
1994-05-01 0.10
1994-06-01 0.10
1994-07-01 0.10
1994-08-01 0.06
1994-09-01 0.12
1994-10-01 0.12
1994-11-01 0.10
1994-12-01 0.12
1995-01-01 0.20
1995-02-01 0.50
1995-03-01 0.44
1995-04-01 0.30
1995-05-01 0.14
1995-06-01 0.08
1995-07-01 0.14
1995-08-01 0.06
1995-09-01 0.10
1995-10-01 0.28
1995-11-01 0.24
1995-12-01 0.20
1996-01-01 0.42
1996-02-01 0.06
1996-03-01 0.12
1996-04-01 0.04
1996-05-01 0.06
1996-06-01 0.08
1996-07-01 0.22
1996-08-01 0.14
1996-09-01 0.10
1996-10-01 0.04
1996-11-01 0.04
1996-12-01 0.04
1997-01-01 0.04
1997-02-01 0.02
1997-03-01 0.04
1997-04-01 0.12
1997-05-01 0.02
1997-06-01 0.04
1997-07-01 0.04
1997-08-01 0.06
1997-09-01 0.02
1997-10-01 0.02
1997-11-01 0.02
1997-12-01 0.08
1998-01-01 0.10
1998-02-01 0.10
1998-03-01 0.14
1998-04-01 0.18
1998-05-01 0.16
1998-06-01 0.98
1998-07-01 0.74
1998-08-01 0.18
1998-09-01 0.18
1998-10-01 0.18
1998-11-01 0.20
1998-12-01 0.20
1999-01-01 0.18
1999-02-01 0.12
1999-03-01 0.12
1999-04-01 0.20
1999-05-01 0.06
1999-06-01 0.14
1999-07-01 0.10
1999-08-01 0.16
1999-09-01 0.28
1999-10-01 0.04
1999-11-01 0.08
1999-12-01 0.10
2000-01-01 0.26
2000-02-01 0.32
2000-03-01 0.18
2000-04-01 0.22
2000-05-01 0.48
2000-06-01 0.80
2000-07-01 1.02
2000-08-01 1.36
2000-09-01 1.38
2000-10-01 3.70
2000-11-01 5.02
2000-12-01 9.18
2001-01-01 16.72
2001-02-01 21.34
2001-03-01 25.70
2001-04-01 29.94
2001-05-01 29.04
2001-06-01 29.62
2001-07-01 28.18
2001-08-01 26.32
2001-09-01 25.52
2001-10-01 18.98
2001-11-01 14.86
2001-12-01 6.60
2002-01-01 2.88
2002-02-01 1.86
2002-03-01 1.14
2002-04-01 0.80
2002-05-01 0.60
2002-06-01 0.56
2002-07-01 1.16
2002-08-01 0.88
2002-09-01 1.02
2002-10-01 0.94
2002-11-01 0.72
2002-12-01 1.18
2003-01-01 0.68
2003-02-01 1.26
2003-03-01 1.10
2003-04-01 0.92
2003-05-01 0.34
2003-06-01 0.26
2003-07-01 0.18
2003-08-01 0.42
2003-09-01 0.18
2003-10-01 0.16
2003-11-01 0.14
2003-12-01 0.30
2004-01-01 0.24
2004-02-01 0.18
2004-03-01 0.16
2004-04-01 0.10
2004-05-01 0.14
2004-06-01 0.96
2004-07-01 0.26
2004-08-01 0.24
2004-09-01 0.24
2004-10-01 0.16
2004-11-01 0.16
2004-12-01 0.14
2005-01-01 0.18
2005-02-01 0.18
2005-03-01 0.46
2005-04-01 0.26
2005-05-01 0.32
2005-06-01 0.42
2005-07-01 0.98
2005-08-01 2.64
2005-09-01 11.92
2005-10-01 0.20
2005-11-01 0.10
2005-12-01 0.12
2006-01-01 0.16
2006-02-01 0.16
2006-03-01 0.16
2006-04-01 0.32
2006-05-01 0.38
2006-06-01 0.28
2006-07-01 0.36
2006-08-01 0.22
2006-09-01 0.30
2006-10-01 0.24
2006-11-01 0.18
2006-12-01 0.20
2007-01-01 0.54
2007-02-01 0.28
2007-03-01 0.26
2007-04-01 0.32
2007-05-01 0.44
2007-06-01 0.76
2007-07-01 1.00
2007-08-01 0.96
2007-09-01 1.18
2007-10-01 2.18
2007-11-01 3.12
2007-12-01 9.70
2008-01-01 22.38
2008-02-01 47.10
2008-03-01 63.26
2008-04-01 76.40
2008-05-01 82.90
2008-06-01 87.64
2008-07-01 94.94
2008-08-01 99.34
2008-09-01 99.60
2008-10-01 90.06
2008-11-01 99.50
2008-12-01 99.60
2009-01-01 99.58
2009-02-01 99.30
2009-03-01 99.28
2009-04-01 96.30
2009-05-01 87.26
2009-06-01 62.38
2009-07-01 3.42
2009-08-01 0.82
2009-09-01 0.50
2009-10-01 0.40
2009-11-01 0.30
2009-12-01 0.26
2010-01-01 0.22
2010-02-01 0.18
2010-03-01 0.10
2010-04-01 0.12
2010-05-01 0.14
2010-06-01 0.48
2010-07-01 0.32
2010-08-01 0.22
2010-09-01 0.20
2010-10-01 0.14
2010-11-01 0.12
2010-12-01 0.10
2011-01-01 0.12
2011-02-01 0.34
2011-03-01 0.18
2011-04-01 0.28
2011-05-01 0.22
2011-06-01 0.06
2011-07-01 0.08
2011-08-01 0.18
2011-09-01 0.36
2011-10-01 0.18
2011-11-01 0.14
2011-12-01 0.06
2012-01-01 0.08
2012-02-01 0.20
2012-03-01 0.62
2012-04-01 0.40
2012-05-01 0.38
2012-06-01 0.36
2012-07-01 0.34
2012-08-01 0.36
2012-09-01 0.18
2012-10-01 0.14
2012-11-01 0.16
2012-12-01 0.28
2013-01-01 0.24
2013-02-01 0.18
2013-03-01 0.16
2013-04-01 0.16
2013-05-01 0.24
2013-06-01 0.22
2013-07-01 0.40
2013-08-01 0.14
2013-09-01 0.14
2013-10-01 0.36
2013-11-01 0.30
2013-12-01 0.42
2014-01-01 0.42
2014-02-01 0.16
2014-03-01 0.18
2014-04-01 0.24
2014-05-01 0.24
2014-06-01 0.26
2014-07-01 0.32
2014-08-01 0.38
2014-09-01 0.22
2014-10-01 0.26
2014-11-01 0.26
2014-12-01 0.60
2015-01-01 2.08
2015-02-01 2.26
2015-03-01 1.98
2015-04-01 1.64
2015-05-01 1.66
2015-06-01 1.30
2015-07-01 0.98
2015-08-01 1.44
2015-09-01 1.52
2015-10-01 1.66
2015-11-01 2.12
2015-12-01 1.82
2016-01-01 1.56
2016-02-01 1.70
2016-03-01 1.46
2016-04-01 0.98
2016-05-01 0.94
2016-06-01 0.64
2016-07-01 0.58
2016-08-01 0.64
2016-09-01 0.44
2016-10-01 0.44
2016-11-01 0.40
2016-12-01 0.26
2017-01-01 0.38
2017-02-01 0.30
2017-03-01 0.20
2017-04-01 0.20
2017-05-01 0.20
2017-06-01 0.30
2017-07-01 0.34
2017-08-01 0.42
2017-09-01 0.24
2017-10-01 0.16
2017-11-01 0.18
2017-12-01 0.24
2018-01-01 0.38
2018-02-01 0.18
2018-03-01 0.10
2018-04-01 0.12
2018-05-01 0.28
2018-06-01 0.12
2018-07-01 0.14
2018-08-01 0.14
2018-09-01 0.48
2018-10-01 0.68
2018-11-01 0.66
2018-12-01 0.72
2019-01-01 2.18
2019-02-01 2.36
2019-03-01 1.76
2019-04-01 1.86
2019-05-01 1.24
2019-06-01 0.92
2019-07-01 1.08
2019-08-01 0.72
2019-09-01 1.60
2019-10-01 2.14
2019-11-01 0.94
2019-12-01 1.08
2020-01-01 0.66
2020-02-01 0.30
2020-03-01 100.00
2020-04-01 100.00
2020-05-01 0.20
2020-06-01 0.20
2020-07-01 0.12
2020-08-01 0.08
2020-09-01 0.14
2020-10-01 0.14
2020-11-01 0.36
2020-12-01 0.12
2021-01-01 0.12
2021-02-01 0.16
2021-03-01 0.14
2021-04-01 0.44
2021-05-01 0.20
2021-06-01 0.18
2021-07-01 0.32
2021-08-01 2.24
2021-09-01 2.08
2021-10-01 0.22
2021-11-01 0.40
2021-12-01 1.12
2022-01-01 1.00
2022-02-01 0.44
2022-03-01 0.52
2022-04-01 0.98
2022-05-01 1.12
2022-06-01 0.78
2022-07-01 0.54
2022-08-01 0.90
2022-09-01 0.92
2022-10-01 1.04
2022-11-01 1.58
2022-12-01 1.58
2023-01-01 0.42
2023-02-01 0.52
2023-03-01 0.54
2023-04-01 0.50
2023-05-01 0.46
2023-06-01 0.58
2023-07-01 0.46
2023-08-01 0.48
2023-09-01 0.48
2023-10-01 0.68
2023-11-01 0.58
2023-12-01 1.42
2024-01-01 3.30
2024-02-01 0.54
2024-03-01 0.54
2024-04-01 0.46
2024-05-01 0.32
2024-06-01 0.58
2024-07-01 0.76
2024-08-01 0.40
2024-09-01 0.66
2024-10-01 0.58
2024-11-01 0.32
2024-12-01 0.22
2025-01-01 0.50
2025-02-01 0.14
2025-03-01 0.24
2025-04-01 0.40
2025-05-01 0.56
2025-06-01 0.34
2025-07-01 0.32
2025-08-01 0.70
2025-09-01 0.72
2025-10-01 0.90
2025-11-01 0.94

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