Table Data - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Title Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Series ID RECPROUSM156N
Source Chauvet, Marcelle, Piger, Jeremy Max
Release U.S. Recession Probabilities
Seasonal Adjustment Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Percent
Date Range 1967-06-01 to 2026-07-01
Last Updated 2026-09-01 10:15 AM CDT
Notes Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996.

For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see:
Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, "
A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49.

For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3.
DATE VALUE
1967-06-01 1.10
1967-07-01 0.54
1967-08-01 0.12
1967-09-01 0.52
1967-10-01 0.18
1967-11-01 0.10
1967-12-01 0.08
1968-01-01 1.16
1968-02-01 0.22
1968-03-01 0.22
1968-04-01 0.18
1968-05-01 0.06
1968-06-01 0.10
1968-07-01 0.16
1968-08-01 0.20
1968-09-01 0.12
1968-10-01 0.10
1968-11-01 0.14
1968-12-01 0.14
1969-01-01 0.16
1969-02-01 0.20
1969-03-01 0.24
1969-04-01 0.46
1969-05-01 0.48
1969-06-01 0.38
1969-07-01 0.58
1969-08-01 0.90
1969-09-01 5.26
1969-10-01 9.20
1969-11-01 41.06
1969-12-01 44.86
1970-01-01 54.22
1970-02-01 44.44
1970-03-01 43.62
1970-04-01 45.06
1970-05-01 41.46
1970-06-01 39.12
1970-07-01 39.76
1970-08-01 56.08
1970-09-01 72.46
1970-10-01 79.64
1970-11-01 29.70
1970-12-01 0.24
1971-01-01 0.32
1971-02-01 1.22
1971-03-01 0.50
1971-04-01 0.24
1971-05-01 0.26
1971-06-01 0.44
1971-07-01 0.74
1971-08-01 0.38
1971-09-01 0.14
1971-10-01 0.14
1971-11-01 0.08
1971-12-01 0.08
1972-01-01 0.12
1972-02-01 0.18
1972-03-01 0.18
1972-04-01 0.16
1972-05-01 0.22
1972-06-01 0.20
1972-07-01 0.36
1972-08-01 0.20
1972-09-01 0.24
1972-10-01 0.24
1972-11-01 0.24
1972-12-01 0.24
1973-01-01 0.24
1973-02-01 0.24
1973-03-01 0.68
1973-04-01 0.60
1973-05-01 0.42
1973-06-01 0.34
1973-07-01 0.48
1973-08-01 0.70
1973-09-01 0.44
1973-10-01 0.48
1973-11-01 2.46
1973-12-01 37.64
1974-01-01 41.50
1974-02-01 37.10
1974-03-01 34.56
1974-04-01 33.54
1974-05-01 31.96
1974-06-01 43.10
1974-07-01 52.84
1974-08-01 80.94
1974-09-01 85.26
1974-10-01 94.52
1974-11-01 99.12
1974-12-01 99.04
1975-01-01 98.66
1975-02-01 98.22
1975-03-01 91.38
1975-04-01 15.60
1975-05-01 3.28
1975-06-01 1.16
1975-07-01 0.38
1975-08-01 0.20
1975-09-01 0.16
1975-10-01 0.26
1975-11-01 0.24
1975-12-01 0.16
1976-01-01 0.10
1976-02-01 0.10
1976-03-01 0.26
1976-04-01 0.20
1976-05-01 0.26
1976-06-01 0.28
1976-07-01 0.14
1976-08-01 0.16
1976-09-01 0.24
1976-10-01 0.36
1976-11-01 0.16
1976-12-01 0.18
1977-01-01 0.82
1977-02-01 0.14
1977-03-01 0.16
1977-04-01 0.22
1977-05-01 0.26
1977-06-01 0.26
1977-07-01 0.26
1977-08-01 0.30
1977-09-01 0.24
1977-10-01 0.28
1977-11-01 0.50
1977-12-01 2.18
1978-01-01 18.34
1978-02-01 0.26
1978-03-01 0.18
1978-04-01 0.20
1978-05-01 0.56
1978-06-01 0.34
1978-07-01 0.50
1978-08-01 0.28
1978-09-01 0.34
1978-10-01 0.30
1978-11-01 0.30
1978-12-01 0.74
1979-01-01 2.54
1979-02-01 1.62
1979-03-01 2.42
1979-04-01 32.48
1979-05-01 3.08
1979-06-01 3.62
1979-07-01 4.66
1979-08-01 5.00
1979-09-01 4.14
1979-10-01 3.96
1979-11-01 5.00
1979-12-01 7.06
1980-01-01 10.84
1980-02-01 43.02
1980-03-01 88.14
1980-04-01 98.26
1980-05-01 98.28
1980-06-01 84.32
1980-07-01 29.72
1980-08-01 0.86
1980-09-01 0.44
1980-10-01 0.40
1980-11-01 0.42
1980-12-01 1.30
1981-01-01 4.60
1981-02-01 4.16
1981-03-01 3.14
1981-04-01 3.34
1981-05-01 2.76
1981-06-01 2.86
1981-07-01 5.40
1981-08-01 46.46
1981-09-01 80.72
1981-10-01 91.52
1981-11-01 93.80
1981-12-01 93.74
1982-01-01 91.06
1982-02-01 11.54
1982-03-01 55.42
1982-04-01 65.72
1982-05-01 67.92
1982-06-01 71.20
1982-07-01 71.90
1982-08-01 70.38
1982-09-01 65.98
1982-10-01 62.86
1982-11-01 33.38
1982-12-01 13.98
1983-01-01 0.94
1983-02-01 2.02
1983-03-01 0.32
1983-04-01 0.16
1983-05-01 0.08
1983-06-01 0.08
1983-07-01 0.08
1983-08-01 0.22
1983-09-01 0.04
1983-10-01 0.06
1983-11-01 0.10
1983-12-01 0.08
1984-01-01 0.06
1984-02-01 0.08
1984-03-01 0.10
1984-04-01 0.10
1984-05-01 0.12
1984-06-01 0.14
1984-07-01 0.18
1984-08-01 0.22
1984-09-01 0.24
1984-10-01 0.22
1984-11-01 0.16
1984-12-01 0.38
1985-01-01 0.40
1985-02-01 0.32
1985-03-01 0.20
1985-04-01 0.34
1985-05-01 0.34
1985-06-01 0.70
1985-07-01 0.64
1985-08-01 0.20
1985-09-01 0.26
1985-10-01 0.32
1985-11-01 0.18
1985-12-01 0.22
1986-01-01 0.20
1986-02-01 0.66
1986-03-01 0.66
1986-04-01 0.32
1986-05-01 0.40
1986-06-01 0.28
1986-07-01 0.08
1986-08-01 0.14
1986-09-01 0.08
1986-10-01 0.16
1986-11-01 0.14
1986-12-01 0.08
1987-01-01 0.68
1987-02-01 0.10
1987-03-01 0.08
1987-04-01 0.10
1987-05-01 0.12
1987-06-01 0.12
1987-07-01 0.14
1987-08-01 0.10
1987-09-01 0.12
1987-10-01 0.14
1987-11-01 0.20
1987-12-01 0.16
1988-01-01 0.44
1988-02-01 0.18
1988-03-01 0.24
1988-04-01 0.22
1988-05-01 0.36
1988-06-01 0.20
1988-07-01 0.24
1988-08-01 0.24
1988-09-01 0.22
1988-10-01 0.20
1988-11-01 0.24
1988-12-01 0.26
1989-01-01 0.44
1989-02-01 1.12
1989-03-01 1.06
1989-04-01 1.44
1989-05-01 1.78
1989-06-01 1.44
1989-07-01 1.84
1989-08-01 0.72
1989-09-01 0.72
1989-10-01 0.86
1989-11-01 0.70
1989-12-01 0.68
1990-01-01 0.76
1990-02-01 0.60
1990-03-01 0.90
1990-04-01 1.86
1990-05-01 2.10
1990-06-01 3.34
1990-07-01 9.04
1990-08-01 16.28
1990-09-01 34.06
1990-10-01 56.20
1990-11-01 61.46
1990-12-01 59.62
1991-01-01 56.82
1991-02-01 48.28
1991-03-01 29.96
1991-04-01 4.16
1991-05-01 0.98
1991-06-01 0.72
1991-07-01 0.90
1991-08-01 0.78
1991-09-01 0.62
1991-10-01 0.80
1991-11-01 0.82
1991-12-01 0.78
1992-01-01 0.52
1992-02-01 0.36
1992-03-01 0.40
1992-04-01 0.36
1992-05-01 0.48
1992-06-01 0.42
1992-07-01 0.38
1992-08-01 0.84
1992-09-01 0.44
1992-10-01 0.30
1992-11-01 0.20
1992-12-01 0.20
1993-01-01 0.22
1993-02-01 0.24
1993-03-01 0.60
1993-04-01 0.20
1993-05-01 0.24
1993-06-01 0.30
1993-07-01 0.24
1993-08-01 0.22
1993-09-01 0.16
1993-10-01 0.10
1993-11-01 0.12
1993-12-01 0.14
1994-01-01 0.14
1994-02-01 0.16
1994-03-01 0.14
1994-04-01 0.14
1994-05-01 0.16
1994-06-01 0.14
1994-07-01 0.22
1994-08-01 0.16
1994-09-01 0.22
1994-10-01 0.22
1994-11-01 0.30
1994-12-01 0.30
1995-01-01 0.40
1995-02-01 0.56
1995-03-01 0.58
1995-04-01 0.64
1995-05-01 0.48
1995-06-01 0.34
1995-07-01 0.54
1995-08-01 0.28
1995-09-01 0.34
1995-10-01 0.42
1995-11-01 0.26
1995-12-01 0.28
1996-01-01 0.66
1996-02-01 0.22
1996-03-01 0.28
1996-04-01 0.18
1996-05-01 0.16
1996-06-01 0.18
1996-07-01 0.22
1996-08-01 0.14
1996-09-01 0.12
1996-10-01 0.14
1996-11-01 0.12
1996-12-01 0.18
1997-01-01 0.14
1997-02-01 0.12
1997-03-01 0.12
1997-04-01 0.14
1997-05-01 0.12
1997-06-01 0.10
1997-07-01 0.12
1997-08-01 0.14
1997-09-01 0.12
1997-10-01 0.06
1997-11-01 0.10
1997-12-01 0.20
1998-01-01 0.14
1998-02-01 0.20
1998-03-01 0.22
1998-04-01 0.22
1998-05-01 0.28
1998-06-01 0.76
1998-07-01 0.64
1998-08-01 0.20
1998-09-01 0.22
1998-10-01 0.14
1998-11-01 0.24
1998-12-01 0.20
1999-01-01 0.22
1999-02-01 0.22
1999-03-01 0.32
1999-04-01 0.28
1999-05-01 0.22
1999-06-01 0.28
1999-07-01 0.20
1999-08-01 0.32
1999-09-01 0.48
1999-10-01 0.32
1999-11-01 0.34
1999-12-01 0.38
2000-01-01 0.46
2000-02-01 0.52
2000-03-01 0.36
2000-04-01 0.40
2000-05-01 0.84
2000-06-01 0.90
2000-07-01 1.16
2000-08-01 1.48
2000-09-01 1.86
2000-10-01 4.68
2000-11-01 6.22
2000-12-01 10.78
2001-01-01 17.08
2001-02-01 21.58
2001-03-01 25.96
2001-04-01 30.00
2001-05-01 29.32
2001-06-01 29.62
2001-07-01 28.14
2001-08-01 25.84
2001-09-01 24.88
2001-10-01 17.34
2001-11-01 13.08
2001-12-01 5.46
2002-01-01 2.00
2002-02-01 1.32
2002-03-01 0.76
2002-04-01 0.44
2002-05-01 0.36
2002-06-01 0.36
2002-07-01 0.68
2002-08-01 0.54
2002-09-01 0.50
2002-10-01 0.64
2002-11-01 0.60
2002-12-01 1.20
2003-01-01 0.64
2003-02-01 1.16
2003-03-01 1.02
2003-04-01 0.74
2003-05-01 0.40
2003-06-01 0.34
2003-07-01 0.24
2003-08-01 0.36
2003-09-01 0.28
2003-10-01 0.24
2003-11-01 0.16
2003-12-01 0.38
2004-01-01 0.40
2004-02-01 0.20
2004-03-01 0.14
2004-04-01 0.14
2004-05-01 0.24
2004-06-01 0.96
2004-07-01 0.18
2004-08-01 0.12
2004-09-01 0.08
2004-10-01 0.06
2004-11-01 0.10
2004-12-01 0.10
2005-01-01 0.10
2005-02-01 0.14
2005-03-01 0.50
2005-04-01 0.30
2005-05-01 0.38
2005-06-01 0.48
2005-07-01 0.94
2005-08-01 2.74
2005-09-01 12.16
2005-10-01 0.36
2005-11-01 0.24
2005-12-01 0.34
2006-01-01 0.34
2006-02-01 0.40
2006-03-01 0.50
2006-04-01 0.64
2006-05-01 0.52
2006-06-01 0.50
2006-07-01 0.50
2006-08-01 0.40
2006-09-01 0.54
2006-10-01 0.58
2006-11-01 0.48
2006-12-01 0.50
2007-01-01 0.76
2007-02-01 0.56
2007-03-01 0.68
2007-04-01 0.70
2007-05-01 0.86
2007-06-01 1.08
2007-07-01 1.38
2007-08-01 1.38
2007-09-01 1.48
2007-10-01 2.26
2007-11-01 3.32
2007-12-01 9.30
2008-01-01 22.38
2008-02-01 46.08
2008-03-01 62.58
2008-04-01 75.14
2008-05-01 81.82
2008-06-01 86.68
2008-07-01 94.82
2008-08-01 99.12
2008-09-01 99.28
2008-10-01 89.70
2008-11-01 99.16
2008-12-01 99.26
2009-01-01 99.22
2009-02-01 98.92
2009-03-01 98.82
2009-04-01 95.80
2009-05-01 86.34
2009-06-01 60.72
2009-07-01 3.08
2009-08-01 0.96
2009-09-01 0.64
2009-10-01 0.52
2009-11-01 0.44
2009-12-01 0.38
2010-01-01 0.34
2010-02-01 0.32
2010-03-01 0.22
2010-04-01 0.24
2010-05-01 0.22
2010-06-01 0.64
2010-07-01 0.38
2010-08-01 0.24
2010-09-01 0.30
2010-10-01 0.30
2010-11-01 0.20
2010-12-01 0.18
2011-01-01 0.28
2011-02-01 0.44
2011-03-01 0.28
2011-04-01 0.56
2011-05-01 0.44
2011-06-01 0.24
2011-07-01 0.22
2011-08-01 0.20
2011-09-01 0.24
2011-10-01 0.26
2011-11-01 0.36
2011-12-01 0.22
2012-01-01 0.18
2012-02-01 0.34
2012-03-01 0.70
2012-04-01 0.32
2012-05-01 0.30
2012-06-01 0.38
2012-07-01 0.38
2012-08-01 0.48
2012-09-01 0.26
2012-10-01 0.16
2012-11-01 0.18
2012-12-01 0.30
2013-01-01 0.30
2013-02-01 0.32
2013-03-01 0.28
2013-04-01 0.36
2013-05-01 0.36
2013-06-01 0.50
2013-07-01 0.56
2013-08-01 0.30
2013-09-01 0.32
2013-10-01 0.34
2013-11-01 0.28
2013-12-01 0.42
2014-01-01 0.42
2014-02-01 0.16
2014-03-01 0.14
2014-04-01 0.24
2014-05-01 0.24
2014-06-01 0.18
2014-07-01 0.24
2014-08-01 0.22
2014-09-01 0.26
2014-10-01 0.32
2014-11-01 0.32
2014-12-01 0.62
2015-01-01 2.06
2015-02-01 2.42
2015-03-01 2.18
2015-04-01 1.60
2015-05-01 1.72
2015-06-01 1.38
2015-07-01 0.96
2015-08-01 1.28
2015-09-01 1.16
2015-10-01 1.56
2015-11-01 2.34
2015-12-01 1.82
2016-01-01 1.28
2016-02-01 1.56
2016-03-01 1.32
2016-04-01 0.84
2016-05-01 0.80
2016-06-01 0.26
2016-07-01 0.30
2016-08-01 0.42
2016-09-01 0.36
2016-10-01 0.52
2016-11-01 0.48
2016-12-01 0.28
2017-01-01 0.36
2017-02-01 0.44
2017-03-01 0.32
2017-04-01 0.24
2017-05-01 0.26
2017-06-01 0.26
2017-07-01 0.38
2017-08-01 0.30
2017-09-01 0.22
2017-10-01 0.18
2017-11-01 0.16
2017-12-01 0.20
2018-01-01 0.46
2018-02-01 0.16
2018-03-01 0.24
2018-04-01 0.28
2018-05-01 0.54
2018-06-01 0.24
2018-07-01 0.26
2018-08-01 0.30
2018-09-01 0.54
2018-10-01 0.52
2018-11-01 0.52
2018-12-01 0.66
2019-01-01 1.96
2019-02-01 2.06
2019-03-01 1.60
2019-04-01 1.68
2019-05-01 1.36
2019-06-01 1.22
2019-07-01 1.28
2019-08-01 0.92
2019-09-01 1.68
2019-10-01 2.24
2019-11-01 0.84
2019-12-01 0.90
2020-01-01 0.64
2020-02-01 0.40
2020-03-01 100.00
2020-04-01 100.00
2020-05-01 0.18
2020-06-01 0.22
2020-07-01 0.18
2020-08-01 0.14
2020-09-01 0.20
2020-10-01 0.20
2020-11-01 0.20
2020-12-01 0.16
2021-01-01 0.06
2021-02-01 0.10
2021-03-01 0.10
2021-04-01 0.46
2021-05-01 0.42
2021-06-01 0.36
2021-07-01 0.42
2021-08-01 2.18
2021-09-01 2.04
2021-10-01 0.28
2021-11-01 0.34
2021-12-01 1.14
2022-01-01 1.10
2022-02-01 0.42
2022-03-01 0.40
2022-04-01 0.62
2022-05-01 0.80
2022-06-01 0.62
2022-07-01 0.26
2022-08-01 0.62
2022-09-01 0.62
2022-10-01 1.04
2022-11-01 1.62
2022-12-01 1.74
2023-01-01 0.44
2023-02-01 0.58
2023-03-01 0.68
2023-04-01 0.54
2023-05-01 0.60
2023-06-01 0.76
2023-07-01 0.54
2023-08-01 0.68
2023-09-01 0.72
2023-10-01 1.00
2023-11-01 0.70
2023-12-01 1.34
2024-01-01 2.78
2024-02-01 0.84
2024-03-01 0.72
2024-04-01 0.78
2024-05-01 0.74
2024-06-01 0.88
2024-07-01 1.06
2024-08-01 0.90
2024-09-01 0.90
2024-10-01 0.82
2024-11-01 0.62
2024-12-01 0.44
2025-01-01 0.80
2025-02-01 0.48
2025-03-01 0.50
2025-04-01 0.68
2025-05-01 0.82
2025-06-01 0.68
2025-07-01 0.58
2025-08-01 1.12
2025-09-01 1.32
2025-10-01 1.58
2025-11-01 0.86
2025-12-01 0.56
2026-01-01 0.64
2026-02-01 0.52
2026-03-01 0.54
2026-04-01 0.46
2026-05-01 0.54
2026-06-01 0.56
2026-07-01 0.76

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