Table Data - Recession Probability for the Euro Area, Median Estimate
| Title | Recession Probability for the Euro Area, Median Estimate |
|---|---|
| Series ID | RECRISKEAP50 |
| Source | Furno, Francesco, Giannone, Domenico |
| Release | RecessionRisk.com (Not a Press Release) |
| Seasonal Adjustment | Not Seasonally Adjusted |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Units | Percent |
| Date Range | 1985-01-01 to 2026-07-01 |
| Last Updated | 2026-08-10 3:17 PM CDT |
| Notes | Monthly median (50th percentile) probability of recession for the Euro Area. Values range from 0 to 100, where values closer to 100 indicate higher probability of recession. Euro Area series begins January 1985. Produced by Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone. For methodology, see: https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/22222_7.html |
| DATE | VALUE |
|---|---|
| 1985-01-01 | 6.3263 |
| 1985-02-01 | 8.4975 |
| 1985-03-01 | 17.2158 |
| 1985-04-01 | 11.4484 |
| 1985-05-01 | 7.5451 |
| 1985-06-01 | 8.5941 |
| 1985-07-01 | 8.1330 |
| 1985-08-01 | 6.4771 |
| 1985-09-01 | 4.2222 |
| 1985-10-01 | 4.1364 |
| 1985-11-01 | 3.3273 |
| 1985-12-01 | 3.9606 |
| 1986-01-01 | 3.2817 |
| 1986-02-01 | 2.9558 |
| 1986-03-01 | 5.2709 |
| 1986-04-01 | 7.0665 |
| 1986-05-01 | 3.1092 |
| 1986-06-01 | 2.3612 |
| 1986-07-01 | 2.2248 |
| 1986-08-01 | 1.5246 |
| 1986-09-01 | 1.2117 |
| 1986-10-01 | 1.3808 |
| 1986-11-01 | 1.4367 |
| 1986-12-01 | 1.1210 |
| 1987-01-01 | 1.8989 |
| 1987-02-01 | 5.2246 |
| 1987-03-01 | 1.5759 |
| 1987-04-01 | 1.2934 |
| 1987-05-01 | 1.0914 |
| 1987-06-01 | 1.5411 |
| 1987-07-01 | 1.1766 |
| 1987-08-01 | 0.7771 |
| 1987-09-01 | 0.5020 |
| 1987-10-01 | 0.7620 |
| 1987-11-01 | 2.5630 |
| 1987-12-01 | 1.7453 |
| 1988-01-01 | 1.8569 |
| 1988-02-01 | 1.2048 |
| 1988-03-01 | 0.4758 |
| 1988-04-01 | 0.4372 |
| 1988-05-01 | 0.3624 |
| 1988-06-01 | 0.2302 |
| 1988-07-01 | 0.2488 |
| 1988-08-01 | 0.1584 |
| 1988-09-01 | 0.1020 |
| 1988-10-01 | 0.0508 |
| 1988-11-01 | 0.0649 |
| 1988-12-01 | 0.0742 |
| 1989-01-01 | 0.0707 |
| 1989-02-01 | 0.0685 |
| 1989-03-01 | 0.0837 |
| 1989-04-01 | 0.0823 |
| 1989-05-01 | 0.0769 |
| 1989-06-01 | 0.0474 |
| 1989-07-01 | 0.0453 |
| 1989-08-01 | 0.0516 |
| 1989-09-01 | 0.0568 |
| 1989-10-01 | 0.0679 |
| 1989-11-01 | 0.0725 |
| 1989-12-01 | 0.0463 |
| 1990-01-01 | 0.0619 |
| 1990-02-01 | 0.0970 |
| 1990-03-01 | 0.0732 |
| 1990-04-01 | 0.0725 |
| 1990-05-01 | 0.1009 |
| 1990-06-01 | 0.0990 |
| 1990-07-01 | 0.1112 |
| 1990-08-01 | 0.1797 |
| 1990-09-01 | 0.3010 |
| 1990-10-01 | 0.5808 |
| 1990-11-01 | 0.3590 |
| 1990-12-01 | 0.5999 |
| 1991-01-01 | 3.8847 |
| 1991-02-01 | 5.8811 |
| 1991-03-01 | 3.9537 |
| 1991-04-01 | 3.4900 |
| 1991-05-01 | 3.1943 |
| 1991-06-01 | 3.1174 |
| 1991-07-01 | 6.0246 |
| 1991-08-01 | 8.0016 |
| 1991-09-01 | 8.4253 |
| 1991-10-01 | 5.5203 |
| 1991-11-01 | 5.4423 |
| 1991-12-01 | 5.9164 |
| 1992-01-01 | 12.2693 |
| 1992-02-01 | 7.7489 |
| 1992-03-01 | 8.6117 |
| 1992-04-01 | 13.9839 |
| 1992-05-01 | 14.7728 |
| 1992-06-01 | 19.2110 |
| 1992-07-01 | 37.1641 |
| 1992-08-01 | 53.0501 |
| 1992-09-01 | 92.3726 |
| 1992-10-01 | 98.4930 |
| 1992-11-01 | 95.0849 |
| 1992-12-01 | 91.8092 |
| 1993-01-01 | 95.4620 |
| 1993-02-01 | 94.7671 |
| 1993-03-01 | 92.2439 |
| 1993-04-01 | 88.8253 |
| 1993-05-01 | 86.7781 |
| 1993-06-01 | 90.8998 |
| 1993-07-01 | 93.8195 |
| 1993-08-01 | 91.3020 |
| 1993-09-01 | 81.4791 |
| 1993-10-01 | 74.8627 |
| 1993-11-01 | 61.1462 |
| 1993-12-01 | 53.3994 |
| 1994-01-01 | 42.4581 |
| 1994-02-01 | 28.2093 |
| 1994-03-01 | 15.5343 |
| 1994-04-01 | 5.9657 |
| 1994-05-01 | 4.1696 |
| 1994-06-01 | 3.4760 |
| 1994-07-01 | 1.8267 |
| 1994-08-01 | 1.0962 |
| 1994-09-01 | 0.5484 |
| 1994-10-01 | 0.4244 |
| 1994-11-01 | 0.4516 |
| 1994-12-01 | 0.3530 |
| 1995-01-01 | 0.4329 |
| 1995-02-01 | 0.3651 |
| 1995-03-01 | 0.7286 |
| 1995-04-01 | 0.4263 |
| 1995-05-01 | 0.3935 |
| 1995-06-01 | 0.4247 |
| 1995-07-01 | 0.3569 |
| 1995-08-01 | 0.7207 |
| 1995-09-01 | 0.9478 |
| 1995-10-01 | 1.4202 |
| 1995-11-01 | 2.3991 |
| 1995-12-01 | 3.4785 |
| 1996-01-01 | 3.7747 |
| 1996-02-01 | 7.2234 |
| 1996-03-01 | 7.6777 |
| 1996-04-01 | 7.7126 |
| 1996-05-01 | 8.0351 |
| 1996-06-01 | 7.0011 |
| 1996-07-01 | 7.1431 |
| 1996-08-01 | 4.0313 |
| 1996-09-01 | 3.1057 |
| 1996-10-01 | 1.6311 |
| 1996-11-01 | 1.6029 |
| 1996-12-01 | 1.7606 |
| 1997-01-01 | 1.2598 |
| 1997-02-01 | 0.8208 |
| 1997-03-01 | 0.7569 |
| 1997-04-01 | 0.8133 |
| 1997-05-01 | 0.4058 |
| 1997-06-01 | 0.3587 |
| 1997-07-01 | 0.3007 |
| 1997-08-01 | 0.2475 |
| 1997-09-01 | 0.1678 |
| 1997-10-01 | 0.1340 |
| 1997-11-01 | 0.1203 |
| 1997-12-01 | 0.0799 |
| 1998-01-01 | 0.0898 |
| 1998-02-01 | 0.0715 |
| 1998-03-01 | 0.0480 |
| 1998-04-01 | 0.0889 |
| 1998-05-01 | 0.0855 |
| 1998-06-01 | 0.0600 |
| 1998-07-01 | 0.0607 |
| 1998-08-01 | 0.0839 |
| 1998-09-01 | 0.3829 |
| 1998-10-01 | 0.8244 |
| 1998-11-01 | 0.4944 |
| 1998-12-01 | 0.4773 |
| 1999-01-01 | 1.1641 |
| 1999-02-01 | 0.4915 |
| 1999-03-01 | 0.5821 |
| 1999-04-01 | 0.8547 |
| 1999-05-01 | 0.5608 |
| 1999-06-01 | 0.4396 |
| 1999-07-01 | 0.5378 |
| 1999-08-01 | 0.6529 |
| 1999-09-01 | 0.4002 |
| 1999-10-01 | 0.2237 |
| 1999-11-01 | 0.0789 |
| 1999-12-01 | 0.0624 |
| 2000-01-01 | 0.0585 |
| 2000-02-01 | 0.0586 |
| 2000-03-01 | 0.0292 |
| 2000-04-01 | 0.0650 |
| 2000-05-01 | 0.0837 |
| 2000-06-01 | 0.1003 |
| 2000-07-01 | 0.0447 |
| 2000-08-01 | 0.0355 |
| 2000-09-01 | 0.0795 |
| 2000-10-01 | 0.0829 |
| 2000-11-01 | 0.0936 |
| 2000-12-01 | 0.1146 |
| 2001-01-01 | 0.1635 |
| 2001-02-01 | 0.2262 |
| 2001-03-01 | 0.4941 |
| 2001-04-01 | 1.5442 |
| 2001-05-01 | 1.7653 |
| 2001-06-01 | 1.6718 |
| 2001-07-01 | 1.8504 |
| 2001-08-01 | 1.6760 |
| 2001-09-01 | 10.8581 |
| 2001-10-01 | 18.5118 |
| 2001-11-01 | 21.4522 |
| 2001-12-01 | 10.0245 |
| 2002-01-01 | 6.4808 |
| 2002-02-01 | 4.1999 |
| 2002-03-01 | 2.1121 |
| 2002-04-01 | 2.4705 |
| 2002-05-01 | 2.3604 |
| 2002-06-01 | 3.6117 |
| 2002-07-01 | 6.1705 |
| 2002-08-01 | 13.0277 |
| 2002-09-01 | 7.7274 |
| 2002-10-01 | 14.8031 |
| 2002-11-01 | 14.3355 |
| 2002-12-01 | 12.5880 |
| 2003-01-01 | 9.5803 |
| 2003-02-01 | 10.3662 |
| 2003-03-01 | 30.5025 |
| 2003-04-01 | 18.2147 |
| 2003-05-01 | 17.4942 |
| 2003-06-01 | 13.2284 |
| 2003-07-01 | 8.9606 |
| 2003-08-01 | 4.6647 |
| 2003-09-01 | 5.1731 |
| 2003-10-01 | 3.3311 |
| 2003-11-01 | 1.7934 |
| 2003-12-01 | 1.7488 |
| 2004-01-01 | 2.0242 |
| 2004-02-01 | 1.3499 |
| 2004-03-01 | 1.7079 |
| 2004-04-01 | 1.5464 |
| 2004-05-01 | 1.3135 |
| 2004-06-01 | 1.2162 |
| 2004-07-01 | 1.3942 |
| 2004-08-01 | 1.5861 |
| 2004-09-01 | 1.3112 |
| 2004-10-01 | 1.2228 |
| 2004-11-01 | 1.4415 |
| 2004-12-01 | 1.3709 |
| 2005-01-01 | 1.1278 |
| 2005-02-01 | 1.6443 |
| 2005-03-01 | 2.0246 |
| 2005-04-01 | 2.1130 |
| 2005-05-01 | 2.9863 |
| 2005-06-01 | 2.6492 |
| 2005-07-01 | 1.7065 |
| 2005-08-01 | 1.4590 |
| 2005-09-01 | 1.2653 |
| 2005-10-01 | 0.7708 |
| 2005-11-01 | 0.6802 |
| 2005-12-01 | 0.4868 |
| 2006-01-01 | 0.3649 |
| 2006-02-01 | 0.3386 |
| 2006-03-01 | 0.2788 |
| 2006-04-01 | 0.1728 |
| 2006-05-01 | 0.1774 |
| 2006-06-01 | 0.1910 |
| 2006-07-01 | 0.1613 |
| 2006-08-01 | 0.1184 |
| 2006-09-01 | 0.0977 |
| 2006-10-01 | 0.0800 |
| 2006-11-01 | 0.0750 |
| 2006-12-01 | 0.0560 |
| 2007-01-01 | 0.0872 |
| 2007-02-01 | 0.0910 |
| 2007-03-01 | 0.0819 |
| 2007-04-01 | 0.0647 |
| 2007-05-01 | 0.0672 |
| 2007-06-01 | 0.0779 |
| 2007-07-01 | 0.1004 |
| 2007-08-01 | 0.3386 |
| 2007-09-01 | 0.5116 |
| 2007-10-01 | 0.3159 |
| 2007-11-01 | 0.5332 |
| 2007-12-01 | 1.0344 |
| 2008-01-01 | 3.2085 |
| 2008-02-01 | 5.5418 |
| 2008-03-01 | 8.6126 |
| 2008-04-01 | 10.6286 |
| 2008-05-01 | 5.0862 |
| 2008-06-01 | 24.4961 |
| 2008-07-01 | 33.6353 |
| 2008-08-01 | 47.3407 |
| 2008-09-01 | 74.5150 |
| 2008-10-01 | 98.9077 |
| 2008-11-01 | 99.7683 |
| 2008-12-01 | 99.9533 |
| 2009-01-01 | 99.9398 |
| 2009-02-01 | 99.9605 |
| 2009-03-01 | 99.9631 |
| 2009-04-01 | 99.8965 |
| 2009-05-01 | 99.3953 |
| 2009-06-01 | 98.5344 |
| 2009-07-01 | 97.0075 |
| 2009-08-01 | 81.7361 |
| 2009-09-01 | 48.1189 |
| 2009-10-01 | 44.4576 |
| 2009-11-01 | 49.4359 |
| 2009-12-01 | 30.5134 |
| 2010-01-01 | 14.4200 |
| 2010-02-01 | 20.2576 |
| 2010-03-01 | 10.3685 |
| 2010-04-01 | 4.0076 |
| 2010-05-01 | 25.2523 |
| 2010-06-01 | 31.9498 |
| 2010-07-01 | 11.7335 |
| 2010-08-01 | 7.5133 |
| 2010-09-01 | 7.3128 |
| 2010-10-01 | 3.4899 |
| 2010-11-01 | 2.8082 |
| 2010-12-01 | 3.4402 |
| 2011-01-01 | 2.0534 |
| 2011-02-01 | 1.2266 |
| 2011-03-01 | 1.6623 |
| 2011-04-01 | 2.7054 |
| 2011-05-01 | 3.0370 |
| 2011-06-01 | 3.8643 |
| 2011-07-01 | 9.3118 |
| 2011-08-01 | 36.1365 |
| 2011-09-01 | 53.2779 |
| 2011-10-01 | 66.5718 |
| 2011-11-01 | 68.4637 |
| 2011-12-01 | 53.0318 |
| 2012-01-01 | 48.0159 |
| 2012-02-01 | 36.8406 |
| 2012-03-01 | 29.5291 |
| 2012-04-01 | 31.6335 |
| 2012-05-01 | 35.9478 |
| 2012-06-01 | 50.5986 |
| 2012-07-01 | 66.2121 |
| 2012-08-01 | 55.2824 |
| 2012-09-01 | 45.2147 |
| 2012-10-01 | 45.2583 |
| 2012-11-01 | 39.2561 |
| 2012-12-01 | 28.4050 |
| 2013-01-01 | 19.1582 |
| 2013-02-01 | 24.0962 |
| 2013-03-01 | 25.8306 |
| 2013-04-01 | 28.9482 |
| 2013-05-01 | 18.2488 |
| 2013-06-01 | 15.7769 |
| 2013-07-01 | 15.4146 |
| 2013-08-01 | 6.1583 |
| 2013-09-01 | 3.3586 |
| 2013-10-01 | 3.2795 |
| 2013-11-01 | 2.5674 |
| 2013-12-01 | 2.3829 |
| 2014-01-01 | 1.8050 |
| 2014-02-01 | 1.6297 |
| 2014-03-01 | 1.2396 |
| 2014-04-01 | 1.3221 |
| 2014-05-01 | 1.3203 |
| 2014-06-01 | 1.5233 |
| 2014-07-01 | 1.6362 |
| 2014-08-01 | 2.1638 |
| 2014-09-01 | 2.6091 |
| 2014-10-01 | 2.6906 |
| 2014-11-01 | 2.0187 |
| 2014-12-01 | 1.9889 |
| 2015-01-01 | 1.7992 |
| 2015-02-01 | 1.3948 |
| 2015-03-01 | 1.0328 |
| 2015-04-01 | 0.8892 |
| 2015-05-01 | 1.0901 |
| 2015-06-01 | 1.2502 |
| 2015-07-01 | 1.8263 |
| 2015-08-01 | 1.3711 |
| 2015-09-01 | 2.2308 |
| 2015-10-01 | 1.4026 |
| 2015-11-01 | 0.9474 |
| 2015-12-01 | 1.2600 |
| 2016-01-01 | 1.3389 |
| 2016-02-01 | 2.2954 |
| 2016-03-01 | 2.1966 |
| 2016-04-01 | 1.1329 |
| 2016-05-01 | 1.2814 |
| 2016-06-01 | 1.7425 |
| 2016-07-01 | 3.5095 |
| 2016-08-01 | 1.6980 |
| 2016-09-01 | 0.9107 |
| 2016-10-01 | 0.6845 |
| 2016-11-01 | 0.6502 |
| 2016-12-01 | 0.5012 |
| 2017-01-01 | 0.2856 |
| 2017-02-01 | 0.2878 |
| 2017-03-01 | 0.2121 |
| 2017-04-01 | 0.1510 |
| 2017-05-01 | 0.1415 |
| 2017-06-01 | 0.0887 |
| 2017-07-01 | 0.0736 |
| 2017-08-01 | 0.0720 |
| 2017-09-01 | 0.0542 |
| 2017-10-01 | 0.0414 |
| 2017-11-01 | 0.0374 |
| 2017-12-01 | 0.0280 |
| 2018-01-01 | 0.0323 |
| 2018-02-01 | 0.0446 |
| 2018-03-01 | 0.0630 |
| 2018-04-01 | 0.0511 |
| 2018-05-01 | 0.0774 |
| 2018-06-01 | 0.0958 |
| 2018-07-01 | 0.0986 |
| 2018-08-01 | 0.0926 |
| 2018-09-01 | 0.0937 |
| 2018-10-01 | 0.1484 |
| 2018-11-01 | 0.1851 |
| 2018-12-01 | 0.3668 |
| 2019-01-01 | 0.4317 |
| 2019-02-01 | 0.3526 |
| 2019-03-01 | 0.3631 |
| 2019-04-01 | 0.4793 |
| 2019-05-01 | 0.3856 |
| 2019-06-01 | 0.6720 |
| 2019-07-01 | 0.6959 |
| 2019-08-01 | 1.0917 |
| 2019-09-01 | 1.3180 |
| 2019-10-01 | 1.1213 |
| 2019-11-01 | 0.7129 |
| 2019-12-01 | 0.5948 |
| 2020-01-01 | 0.3791 |
| 2020-02-01 | 0.3896 |
| 2020-03-01 | 49.1792 |
| 2020-04-01 | 99.9798 |
| 2020-05-01 | 99.7881 |
| 2020-06-01 | 94.4775 |
| 2020-07-01 | 63.3632 |
| 2020-08-01 | 18.2788 |
| 2020-09-01 | 6.8768 |
| 2020-10-01 | 5.9679 |
| 2020-11-01 | 11.4474 |
| 2020-12-01 | 2.8649 |
| 2021-01-01 | 3.1719 |
| 2021-02-01 | 2.1471 |
| 2021-03-01 | 0.5828 |
| 2021-04-01 | 0.2994 |
| 2021-05-01 | 0.0896 |
| 2021-06-01 | 0.0219 |
| 2021-07-01 | 0.0135 |
| 2021-08-01 | 0.0152 |
| 2021-09-01 | 0.0131 |
| 2021-10-01 | 0.0110 |
| 2021-11-01 | 0.0213 |
| 2021-12-01 | 0.0465 |
| 2022-01-01 | 0.0557 |
| 2022-02-01 | 0.0639 |
| 2022-03-01 | 1.4680 |
| 2022-04-01 | 1.7051 |
| 2022-05-01 | 2.5448 |
| 2022-06-01 | 5.2514 |
| 2022-07-01 | 11.3671 |
| 2022-08-01 | 9.6587 |
| 2022-09-01 | 37.3161 |
| 2022-10-01 | 67.6347 |
| 2022-11-01 | 32.3191 |
| 2022-12-01 | 10.1329 |
| 2023-01-01 | 4.2350 |
| 2023-02-01 | 3.0358 |
| 2023-03-01 | 5.6672 |
| 2023-04-01 | 4.2622 |
| 2023-05-01 | 5.1895 |
| 2023-06-01 | 5.4717 |
| 2023-07-01 | 5.9235 |
| 2023-08-01 | 7.4279 |
| 2023-09-01 | 6.9137 |
| 2023-10-01 | 9.3610 |
| 2023-11-01 | 7.5379 |
| 2023-12-01 | 4.2870 |
| 2024-01-01 | 4.5309 |
| 2024-02-01 | 4.4698 |
| 2024-03-01 | 3.2116 |
| 2024-04-01 | 3.1268 |
| 2024-05-01 | 3.0172 |
| 2024-06-01 | 3.4719 |
| 2024-07-01 | 3.9030 |
| 2024-08-01 | 5.4157 |
| 2024-09-01 | 4.1791 |
| 2024-10-01 | 3.4868 |
| 2024-11-01 | 3.9332 |
| 2024-12-01 | 5.9083 |
| 2025-01-01 | 3.9450 |
| 2025-02-01 | 2.9656 |
| 2025-03-01 | 3.7617 |
| 2025-04-01 | 8.3443 |
| 2025-05-01 | 3.8536 |
| 2025-06-01 | 4.6674 |
| 2025-07-01 | 3.5924 |
| 2025-08-01 | 3.6850 |
| 2025-09-01 | 3.5525 |
| 2025-10-01 | 2.9712 |
| 2025-11-01 | 2.6833 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2.7553 |
| 2026-01-01 | 1.7481 |
| 2026-02-01 | 1.9082 |
| 2026-03-01 | 3.4339 |
| 2026-04-01 | 5.6299 |
| 2026-05-01 | 4.7692 |
| 2026-06-01 | 3.5498 |
| 2026-07-01 | 2.6157 |