Table Data - Recession Probability for the Euro Area, Median Estimate
| Title | Recession Probability for the Euro Area, Median Estimate |
|---|---|
| Series ID | RECRISKEAP50 |
| Source | Furno, Francesco, Giannone, Domenico |
| Release | RecessionRisk.com (Not a Press Release) |
| Seasonal Adjustment | Not Seasonally Adjusted |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Units | Percent |
| Date Range | 1985-01-01 to 2026-08-01 |
| Last Updated | 2026-09-01 10:54 AM CDT |
| Notes | Monthly median (50th percentile) probability of recession for the Euro Area. Values range from 0 to 100, where values closer to 100 indicate higher probability of recession. Euro Area series begins January 1985. Produced by Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone. For methodology, see: https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/22222_7.html |
| DATE | VALUE |
|---|---|
| 1985-01-01 | 6.3906 |
| 1985-02-01 | 8.5547 |
| 1985-03-01 | 17.3016 |
| 1985-04-01 | 11.5361 |
| 1985-05-01 | 7.6134 |
| 1985-06-01 | 8.6308 |
| 1985-07-01 | 8.2078 |
| 1985-08-01 | 6.5128 |
| 1985-09-01 | 4.2854 |
| 1985-10-01 | 4.1591 |
| 1985-11-01 | 3.3445 |
| 1985-12-01 | 3.9946 |
| 1986-01-01 | 3.3067 |
| 1986-02-01 | 2.9806 |
| 1986-03-01 | 5.1621 |
| 1986-04-01 | 7.1218 |
| 1986-05-01 | 3.0525 |
| 1986-06-01 | 2.3775 |
| 1986-07-01 | 2.2442 |
| 1986-08-01 | 1.5376 |
| 1986-09-01 | 1.2252 |
| 1986-10-01 | 1.3956 |
| 1986-11-01 | 1.4517 |
| 1986-12-01 | 1.1292 |
| 1987-01-01 | 1.9181 |
| 1987-02-01 | 5.2486 |
| 1987-03-01 | 1.5949 |
| 1987-04-01 | 1.3047 |
| 1987-05-01 | 1.0983 |
| 1987-06-01 | 1.5551 |
| 1987-07-01 | 1.1821 |
| 1987-08-01 | 0.7812 |
| 1987-09-01 | 0.5031 |
| 1987-10-01 | 0.7732 |
| 1987-11-01 | 2.5681 |
| 1987-12-01 | 1.7537 |
| 1988-01-01 | 1.8618 |
| 1988-02-01 | 1.2100 |
| 1988-03-01 | 0.4790 |
| 1988-04-01 | 0.4412 |
| 1988-05-01 | 0.3660 |
| 1988-06-01 | 0.2334 |
| 1988-07-01 | 0.2532 |
| 1988-08-01 | 0.1614 |
| 1988-09-01 | 0.1036 |
| 1988-10-01 | 0.0518 |
| 1988-11-01 | 0.0662 |
| 1988-12-01 | 0.0756 |
| 1989-01-01 | 0.0722 |
| 1989-02-01 | 0.0699 |
| 1989-03-01 | 0.0850 |
| 1989-04-01 | 0.0839 |
| 1989-05-01 | 0.0782 |
| 1989-06-01 | 0.0484 |
| 1989-07-01 | 0.0462 |
| 1989-08-01 | 0.0528 |
| 1989-09-01 | 0.0578 |
| 1989-10-01 | 0.0692 |
| 1989-11-01 | 0.0740 |
| 1989-12-01 | 0.0472 |
| 1990-01-01 | 0.0629 |
| 1990-02-01 | 0.0979 |
| 1990-03-01 | 0.0745 |
| 1990-04-01 | 0.0739 |
| 1990-05-01 | 0.1031 |
| 1990-06-01 | 0.1012 |
| 1990-07-01 | 0.1137 |
| 1990-08-01 | 0.1826 |
| 1990-09-01 | 0.3051 |
| 1990-10-01 | 0.5873 |
| 1990-11-01 | 0.3616 |
| 1990-12-01 | 0.6047 |
| 1991-01-01 | 3.9067 |
| 1991-02-01 | 5.9003 |
| 1991-03-01 | 3.9855 |
| 1991-04-01 | 3.5014 |
| 1991-05-01 | 3.2168 |
| 1991-06-01 | 3.1648 |
| 1991-07-01 | 6.0949 |
| 1991-08-01 | 8.0719 |
| 1991-09-01 | 8.5071 |
| 1991-10-01 | 5.5583 |
| 1991-11-01 | 5.5009 |
| 1991-12-01 | 5.9765 |
| 1992-01-01 | 12.2791 |
| 1992-02-01 | 7.7956 |
| 1992-03-01 | 8.7155 |
| 1992-04-01 | 14.0923 |
| 1992-05-01 | 14.8391 |
| 1992-06-01 | 19.3304 |
| 1992-07-01 | 37.2562 |
| 1992-08-01 | 53.3412 |
| 1992-09-01 | 92.4272 |
| 1992-10-01 | 98.5120 |
| 1992-11-01 | 95.1228 |
| 1992-12-01 | 91.8720 |
| 1993-01-01 | 95.5120 |
| 1993-02-01 | 94.8370 |
| 1993-03-01 | 92.2915 |
| 1993-04-01 | 88.9106 |
| 1993-05-01 | 86.9095 |
| 1993-06-01 | 90.9783 |
| 1993-07-01 | 93.8415 |
| 1993-08-01 | 91.4039 |
| 1993-09-01 | 81.6391 |
| 1993-10-01 | 75.0707 |
| 1993-11-01 | 61.2320 |
| 1993-12-01 | 53.3656 |
| 1994-01-01 | 42.3648 |
| 1994-02-01 | 28.2416 |
| 1994-03-01 | 15.5897 |
| 1994-04-01 | 6.0128 |
| 1994-05-01 | 4.1296 |
| 1994-06-01 | 3.5114 |
| 1994-07-01 | 1.8511 |
| 1994-08-01 | 1.0984 |
| 1994-09-01 | 0.5499 |
| 1994-10-01 | 0.4255 |
| 1994-11-01 | 0.4549 |
| 1994-12-01 | 0.3543 |
| 1995-01-01 | 0.4330 |
| 1995-02-01 | 0.3664 |
| 1995-03-01 | 0.7306 |
| 1995-04-01 | 0.4316 |
| 1995-05-01 | 0.3948 |
| 1995-06-01 | 0.4272 |
| 1995-07-01 | 0.3576 |
| 1995-08-01 | 0.7244 |
| 1995-09-01 | 0.9573 |
| 1995-10-01 | 1.4254 |
| 1995-11-01 | 2.4282 |
| 1995-12-01 | 3.5278 |
| 1996-01-01 | 3.8163 |
| 1996-02-01 | 7.2849 |
| 1996-03-01 | 7.7414 |
| 1996-04-01 | 7.7735 |
| 1996-05-01 | 8.0918 |
| 1996-06-01 | 7.0596 |
| 1996-07-01 | 7.0334 |
| 1996-08-01 | 4.0876 |
| 1996-09-01 | 3.1575 |
| 1996-10-01 | 1.6571 |
| 1996-11-01 | 1.6282 |
| 1996-12-01 | 1.7813 |
| 1997-01-01 | 1.2716 |
| 1997-02-01 | 0.8252 |
| 1997-03-01 | 0.7607 |
| 1997-04-01 | 0.8191 |
| 1997-05-01 | 0.4069 |
| 1997-06-01 | 0.3594 |
| 1997-07-01 | 0.3020 |
| 1997-08-01 | 0.2513 |
| 1997-09-01 | 0.1711 |
| 1997-10-01 | 0.1365 |
| 1997-11-01 | 0.1220 |
| 1997-12-01 | 0.0813 |
| 1998-01-01 | 0.0914 |
| 1998-02-01 | 0.0729 |
| 1998-03-01 | 0.0489 |
| 1998-04-01 | 0.0887 |
| 1998-05-01 | 0.0875 |
| 1998-06-01 | 0.0611 |
| 1998-07-01 | 0.0619 |
| 1998-08-01 | 0.0856 |
| 1998-09-01 | 0.3841 |
| 1998-10-01 | 0.8241 |
| 1998-11-01 | 0.4945 |
| 1998-12-01 | 0.4817 |
| 1999-01-01 | 1.1710 |
| 1999-02-01 | 0.4953 |
| 1999-03-01 | 0.5886 |
| 1999-04-01 | 0.8627 |
| 1999-05-01 | 0.5621 |
| 1999-06-01 | 0.4402 |
| 1999-07-01 | 0.5425 |
| 1999-08-01 | 0.6559 |
| 1999-09-01 | 0.4009 |
| 1999-10-01 | 0.2241 |
| 1999-11-01 | 0.0792 |
| 1999-12-01 | 0.0634 |
| 2000-01-01 | 0.0594 |
| 2000-02-01 | 0.0590 |
| 2000-03-01 | 0.0293 |
| 2000-04-01 | 0.0653 |
| 2000-05-01 | 0.0834 |
| 2000-06-01 | 0.1006 |
| 2000-07-01 | 0.0453 |
| 2000-08-01 | 0.0360 |
| 2000-09-01 | 0.0800 |
| 2000-10-01 | 0.0833 |
| 2000-11-01 | 0.0937 |
| 2000-12-01 | 0.1155 |
| 2001-01-01 | 0.1641 |
| 2001-02-01 | 0.2270 |
| 2001-03-01 | 0.4983 |
| 2001-04-01 | 1.5537 |
| 2001-05-01 | 1.7362 |
| 2001-06-01 | 1.6849 |
| 2001-07-01 | 1.8651 |
| 2001-08-01 | 1.6903 |
| 2001-09-01 | 10.9578 |
| 2001-10-01 | 18.6049 |
| 2001-11-01 | 21.4483 |
| 2001-12-01 | 10.1354 |
| 2002-01-01 | 6.4930 |
| 2002-02-01 | 4.2364 |
| 2002-03-01 | 2.1351 |
| 2002-04-01 | 2.4897 |
| 2002-05-01 | 2.3845 |
| 2002-06-01 | 3.6308 |
| 2002-07-01 | 6.2112 |
| 2002-08-01 | 13.0079 |
| 2002-09-01 | 7.8219 |
| 2002-10-01 | 14.9380 |
| 2002-11-01 | 14.6370 |
| 2002-12-01 | 12.7339 |
| 2003-01-01 | 9.8506 |
| 2003-02-01 | 10.5037 |
| 2003-03-01 | 30.7276 |
| 2003-04-01 | 18.2474 |
| 2003-05-01 | 17.6868 |
| 2003-06-01 | 13.4090 |
| 2003-07-01 | 9.0767 |
| 2003-08-01 | 4.7314 |
| 2003-09-01 | 5.2220 |
| 2003-10-01 | 3.3586 |
| 2003-11-01 | 1.8135 |
| 2003-12-01 | 1.7753 |
| 2004-01-01 | 2.0477 |
| 2004-02-01 | 1.3629 |
| 2004-03-01 | 1.7201 |
| 2004-04-01 | 1.5614 |
| 2004-05-01 | 1.3262 |
| 2004-06-01 | 1.1960 |
| 2004-07-01 | 1.4074 |
| 2004-08-01 | 1.6084 |
| 2004-09-01 | 1.3215 |
| 2004-10-01 | 1.2325 |
| 2004-11-01 | 1.4502 |
| 2004-12-01 | 1.3823 |
| 2005-01-01 | 1.1276 |
| 2005-02-01 | 1.6427 |
| 2005-03-01 | 2.0466 |
| 2005-04-01 | 2.1328 |
| 2005-05-01 | 2.9956 |
| 2005-06-01 | 2.6702 |
| 2005-07-01 | 1.7316 |
| 2005-08-01 | 1.4718 |
| 2005-09-01 | 1.2753 |
| 2005-10-01 | 0.7778 |
| 2005-11-01 | 0.7005 |
| 2005-12-01 | 0.4873 |
| 2006-01-01 | 0.3678 |
| 2006-02-01 | 0.3405 |
| 2006-03-01 | 0.2827 |
| 2006-04-01 | 0.1757 |
| 2006-05-01 | 0.1810 |
| 2006-06-01 | 0.1937 |
| 2006-07-01 | 0.1640 |
| 2006-08-01 | 0.1208 |
| 2006-09-01 | 0.0998 |
| 2006-10-01 | 0.0819 |
| 2006-11-01 | 0.0768 |
| 2006-12-01 | 0.0571 |
| 2007-01-01 | 0.0895 |
| 2007-02-01 | 0.0926 |
| 2007-03-01 | 0.0831 |
| 2007-04-01 | 0.0662 |
| 2007-05-01 | 0.0688 |
| 2007-06-01 | 0.0792 |
| 2007-07-01 | 0.1018 |
| 2007-08-01 | 0.3387 |
| 2007-09-01 | 0.5115 |
| 2007-10-01 | 0.3195 |
| 2007-11-01 | 0.5367 |
| 2007-12-01 | 1.0398 |
| 2008-01-01 | 3.2461 |
| 2008-02-01 | 5.7360 |
| 2008-03-01 | 8.7665 |
| 2008-04-01 | 11.1843 |
| 2008-05-01 | 5.2519 |
| 2008-06-01 | 24.8863 |
| 2008-07-01 | 33.4893 |
| 2008-08-01 | 47.8475 |
| 2008-09-01 | 75.1472 |
| 2008-10-01 | 98.9453 |
| 2008-11-01 | 99.7771 |
| 2008-12-01 | 99.9536 |
| 2009-01-01 | 99.9399 |
| 2009-02-01 | 99.9609 |
| 2009-03-01 | 99.9636 |
| 2009-04-01 | 99.8978 |
| 2009-05-01 | 99.4001 |
| 2009-06-01 | 98.5423 |
| 2009-07-01 | 97.0242 |
| 2009-08-01 | 81.9770 |
| 2009-09-01 | 48.3831 |
| 2009-10-01 | 44.7526 |
| 2009-11-01 | 49.7183 |
| 2009-12-01 | 30.5896 |
| 2010-01-01 | 14.4405 |
| 2010-02-01 | 20.2916 |
| 2010-03-01 | 10.3986 |
| 2010-04-01 | 4.0260 |
| 2010-05-01 | 25.4038 |
| 2010-06-01 | 31.7383 |
| 2010-07-01 | 11.8265 |
| 2010-08-01 | 7.5345 |
| 2010-09-01 | 7.3496 |
| 2010-10-01 | 3.4977 |
| 2010-11-01 | 2.8126 |
| 2010-12-01 | 3.4521 |
| 2011-01-01 | 2.0582 |
| 2011-02-01 | 1.2335 |
| 2011-03-01 | 1.6651 |
| 2011-04-01 | 2.7118 |
| 2011-05-01 | 3.0541 |
| 2011-06-01 | 3.8829 |
| 2011-07-01 | 9.4049 |
| 2011-08-01 | 36.4849 |
| 2011-09-01 | 53.6634 |
| 2011-10-01 | 66.6441 |
| 2011-11-01 | 68.5930 |
| 2011-12-01 | 53.3302 |
| 2012-01-01 | 48.2885 |
| 2012-02-01 | 37.0557 |
| 2012-03-01 | 29.6086 |
| 2012-04-01 | 31.7011 |
| 2012-05-01 | 36.0132 |
| 2012-06-01 | 50.9630 |
| 2012-07-01 | 65.9324 |
| 2012-08-01 | 55.4424 |
| 2012-09-01 | 45.4359 |
| 2012-10-01 | 45.3678 |
| 2012-11-01 | 39.4451 |
| 2012-12-01 | 28.4547 |
| 2013-01-01 | 19.2215 |
| 2013-02-01 | 24.1165 |
| 2013-03-01 | 25.8365 |
| 2013-04-01 | 29.0377 |
| 2013-05-01 | 18.3128 |
| 2013-06-01 | 15.8492 |
| 2013-07-01 | 15.4749 |
| 2013-08-01 | 6.2197 |
| 2013-09-01 | 3.5056 |
| 2013-10-01 | 3.3300 |
| 2013-11-01 | 2.5975 |
| 2013-12-01 | 2.4043 |
| 2014-01-01 | 1.8318 |
| 2014-02-01 | 1.6484 |
| 2014-03-01 | 1.2483 |
| 2014-04-01 | 1.3387 |
| 2014-05-01 | 1.3364 |
| 2014-06-01 | 1.5493 |
| 2014-07-01 | 1.6237 |
| 2014-08-01 | 2.1821 |
| 2014-09-01 | 2.6370 |
| 2014-10-01 | 2.7117 |
| 2014-11-01 | 2.0365 |
| 2014-12-01 | 2.0104 |
| 2015-01-01 | 1.8220 |
| 2015-02-01 | 1.4063 |
| 2015-03-01 | 1.0423 |
| 2015-04-01 | 0.9006 |
| 2015-05-01 | 1.0783 |
| 2015-06-01 | 1.2557 |
| 2015-07-01 | 1.8398 |
| 2015-08-01 | 1.3788 |
| 2015-09-01 | 2.2488 |
| 2015-10-01 | 1.4107 |
| 2015-11-01 | 0.9525 |
| 2015-12-01 | 1.2617 |
| 2016-01-01 | 1.3444 |
| 2016-02-01 | 2.3063 |
| 2016-03-01 | 2.2085 |
| 2016-04-01 | 1.1369 |
| 2016-05-01 | 1.2866 |
| 2016-06-01 | 1.7441 |
| 2016-07-01 | 3.4312 |
| 2016-08-01 | 1.7139 |
| 2016-09-01 | 0.9412 |
| 2016-10-01 | 0.6888 |
| 2016-11-01 | 0.6536 |
| 2016-12-01 | 0.5040 |
| 2017-01-01 | 0.2895 |
| 2017-02-01 | 0.2919 |
| 2017-03-01 | 0.2161 |
| 2017-04-01 | 0.1534 |
| 2017-05-01 | 0.1446 |
| 2017-06-01 | 0.0907 |
| 2017-07-01 | 0.0752 |
| 2017-08-01 | 0.0737 |
| 2017-09-01 | 0.0567 |
| 2017-10-01 | 0.0422 |
| 2017-11-01 | 0.0384 |
| 2017-12-01 | 0.0287 |
| 2018-01-01 | 0.0331 |
| 2018-02-01 | 0.0456 |
| 2018-03-01 | 0.0643 |
| 2018-04-01 | 0.0520 |
| 2018-05-01 | 0.0788 |
| 2018-06-01 | 0.0976 |
| 2018-07-01 | 0.1005 |
| 2018-08-01 | 0.0949 |
| 2018-09-01 | 0.0959 |
| 2018-10-01 | 0.1521 |
| 2018-11-01 | 0.1877 |
| 2018-12-01 | 0.3672 |
| 2019-01-01 | 0.4304 |
| 2019-02-01 | 0.3570 |
| 2019-03-01 | 0.3668 |
| 2019-04-01 | 0.4826 |
| 2019-05-01 | 0.3876 |
| 2019-06-01 | 0.6575 |
| 2019-07-01 | 0.6827 |
| 2019-08-01 | 1.1027 |
| 2019-09-01 | 1.3330 |
| 2019-10-01 | 1.1279 |
| 2019-11-01 | 0.7160 |
| 2019-12-01 | 0.5969 |
| 2020-01-01 | 0.3801 |
| 2020-02-01 | 0.3915 |
| 2020-03-01 | 49.3060 |
| 2020-04-01 | 99.9798 |
| 2020-05-01 | 99.7853 |
| 2020-06-01 | 94.5127 |
| 2020-07-01 | 62.9249 |
| 2020-08-01 | 18.3232 |
| 2020-09-01 | 6.9276 |
| 2020-10-01 | 6.0067 |
| 2020-11-01 | 11.5308 |
| 2020-12-01 | 2.9651 |
| 2021-01-01 | 3.2162 |
| 2021-02-01 | 2.1659 |
| 2021-03-01 | 0.5844 |
| 2021-04-01 | 0.2984 |
| 2021-05-01 | 0.0915 |
| 2021-06-01 | 0.0225 |
| 2021-07-01 | 0.0138 |
| 2021-08-01 | 0.0156 |
| 2021-09-01 | 0.0137 |
| 2021-10-01 | 0.0112 |
| 2021-11-01 | 0.0224 |
| 2021-12-01 | 0.0484 |
| 2022-01-01 | 0.0570 |
| 2022-02-01 | 0.0649 |
| 2022-03-01 | 1.4659 |
| 2022-04-01 | 1.7118 |
| 2022-05-01 | 2.5467 |
| 2022-06-01 | 5.2844 |
| 2022-07-01 | 11.1568 |
| 2022-08-01 | 9.9375 |
| 2022-09-01 | 37.3997 |
| 2022-10-01 | 68.3614 |
| 2022-11-01 | 32.5306 |
| 2022-12-01 | 10.2310 |
| 2023-01-01 | 4.2612 |
| 2023-02-01 | 3.0582 |
| 2023-03-01 | 5.7155 |
| 2023-04-01 | 4.2967 |
| 2023-05-01 | 5.2057 |
| 2023-06-01 | 5.3829 |
| 2023-07-01 | 5.8427 |
| 2023-08-01 | 7.4821 |
| 2023-09-01 | 6.9934 |
| 2023-10-01 | 9.4517 |
| 2023-11-01 | 7.5845 |
| 2023-12-01 | 4.3264 |
| 2024-01-01 | 4.5627 |
| 2024-02-01 | 4.5208 |
| 2024-03-01 | 3.2645 |
| 2024-04-01 | 3.1775 |
| 2024-05-01 | 3.0581 |
| 2024-06-01 | 3.5008 |
| 2024-07-01 | 3.8264 |
| 2024-08-01 | 5.4275 |
| 2024-09-01 | 4.1907 |
| 2024-10-01 | 3.5926 |
| 2024-11-01 | 3.9459 |
| 2024-12-01 | 5.9697 |
| 2025-01-01 | 4.0042 |
| 2025-02-01 | 2.9422 |
| 2025-03-01 | 3.8377 |
| 2025-04-01 | 8.1995 |
| 2025-05-01 | 3.8992 |
| 2025-06-01 | 4.6298 |
| 2025-07-01 | 3.5574 |
| 2025-08-01 | 3.8416 |
| 2025-09-01 | 3.6792 |
| 2025-10-01 | 2.9954 |
| 2025-11-01 | 2.7024 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2.8544 |
| 2026-01-01 | 1.7638 |
| 2026-02-01 | 1.9296 |
| 2026-03-01 | 3.3732 |
| 2026-04-01 | 5.6917 |
| 2026-05-01 | 4.7349 |
| 2026-06-01 | 3.4324 |
| 2026-07-01 | 2.5169 |
| 2026-08-01 | 1.8490 |