Table Data - Recession Probability for the Euro Area, Median Estimate
| Title | Recession Probability for the Euro Area, Median Estimate |
|---|---|
| Series ID | RECRISKEAP50 |
| Source | Furno, Francesco, Giannone, Domenico |
| Release | RecessionRisk.com (Not a Press Release) |
| Seasonal Adjustment | Not Seasonally Adjusted |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Units | Percent |
| Date Range | 1985-01-01 to 2026-09-01 |
| Last Updated | 2026-10-01 10:01 AM CDT |
| Notes | Monthly median (50th percentile) probability of recession for the Euro Area. Values range from 0 to 100, where values closer to 100 indicate higher probability of recession. Euro Area series begins January 1985. Produced by Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone. For methodology, see: https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/22222_7.html |
| DATE | VALUE |
|---|---|
| 1985-01-01 | 6.0093 |
| 1985-02-01 | 8.0961 |
| 1985-03-01 | 16.7780 |
| 1985-04-01 | 10.9910 |
| 1985-05-01 | 7.1733 |
| 1985-06-01 | 8.1651 |
| 1985-07-01 | 7.7392 |
| 1985-08-01 | 6.1286 |
| 1985-09-01 | 4.0158 |
| 1985-10-01 | 3.9363 |
| 1985-11-01 | 3.1578 |
| 1985-12-01 | 3.7713 |
| 1986-01-01 | 3.1409 |
| 1986-02-01 | 2.8199 |
| 1986-03-01 | 5.0518 |
| 1986-04-01 | 7.0099 |
| 1986-05-01 | 2.9661 |
| 1986-06-01 | 2.2745 |
| 1986-07-01 | 2.1451 |
| 1986-08-01 | 1.4621 |
| 1986-09-01 | 1.1560 |
| 1986-10-01 | 1.3164 |
| 1986-11-01 | 1.3690 |
| 1986-12-01 | 1.0662 |
| 1987-01-01 | 1.8157 |
| 1987-02-01 | 5.1300 |
| 1987-03-01 | 1.5074 |
| 1987-04-01 | 1.2327 |
| 1987-05-01 | 1.0422 |
| 1987-06-01 | 1.4708 |
| 1987-07-01 | 1.1227 |
| 1987-08-01 | 0.7364 |
| 1987-09-01 | 0.4747 |
| 1987-10-01 | 0.7309 |
| 1987-11-01 | 2.5275 |
| 1987-12-01 | 1.6935 |
| 1988-01-01 | 1.8138 |
| 1988-02-01 | 1.1557 |
| 1988-03-01 | 0.4553 |
| 1988-04-01 | 0.4211 |
| 1988-05-01 | 0.3482 |
| 1988-06-01 | 0.2218 |
| 1988-07-01 | 0.2406 |
| 1988-08-01 | 0.1538 |
| 1988-09-01 | 0.0988 |
| 1988-10-01 | 0.0488 |
| 1988-11-01 | 0.0624 |
| 1988-12-01 | 0.0715 |
| 1989-01-01 | 0.0680 |
| 1989-02-01 | 0.0660 |
| 1989-03-01 | 0.0805 |
| 1989-04-01 | 0.0793 |
| 1989-05-01 | 0.0739 |
| 1989-06-01 | 0.0454 |
| 1989-07-01 | 0.0434 |
| 1989-08-01 | 0.0507 |
| 1989-09-01 | 0.0542 |
| 1989-10-01 | 0.0653 |
| 1989-11-01 | 0.0702 |
| 1989-12-01 | 0.0445 |
| 1990-01-01 | 0.0594 |
| 1990-02-01 | 0.0937 |
| 1990-03-01 | 0.0705 |
| 1990-04-01 | 0.0697 |
| 1990-05-01 | 0.0977 |
| 1990-06-01 | 0.0957 |
| 1990-07-01 | 0.1077 |
| 1990-08-01 | 0.1743 |
| 1990-09-01 | 0.2910 |
| 1990-10-01 | 0.5594 |
| 1990-11-01 | 0.3422 |
| 1990-12-01 | 0.5754 |
| 1991-01-01 | 3.8291 |
| 1991-02-01 | 5.7305 |
| 1991-03-01 | 3.7822 |
| 1991-04-01 | 3.3063 |
| 1991-05-01 | 3.0349 |
| 1991-06-01 | 2.9607 |
| 1991-07-01 | 5.7691 |
| 1991-08-01 | 7.7202 |
| 1991-09-01 | 8.1298 |
| 1991-10-01 | 5.2615 |
| 1991-11-01 | 5.2050 |
| 1991-12-01 | 5.6470 |
| 1992-01-01 | 11.9097 |
| 1992-02-01 | 7.4725 |
| 1992-03-01 | 8.2259 |
| 1992-04-01 | 13.5257 |
| 1992-05-01 | 14.2916 |
| 1992-06-01 | 18.7707 |
| 1992-07-01 | 36.9546 |
| 1992-08-01 | 52.9858 |
| 1992-09-01 | 92.5486 |
| 1992-10-01 | 98.5513 |
| 1992-11-01 | 95.1312 |
| 1992-12-01 | 91.9138 |
| 1993-01-01 | 95.5676 |
| 1993-02-01 | 94.8587 |
| 1993-03-01 | 92.3260 |
| 1993-04-01 | 88.9120 |
| 1993-05-01 | 86.8873 |
| 1993-06-01 | 91.0296 |
| 1993-07-01 | 93.8790 |
| 1993-08-01 | 91.4590 |
| 1993-09-01 | 81.6337 |
| 1993-10-01 | 74.9372 |
| 1993-11-01 | 60.8867 |
| 1993-12-01 | 52.9564 |
| 1994-01-01 | 41.7018 |
| 1994-02-01 | 27.6605 |
| 1994-03-01 | 14.9362 |
| 1994-04-01 | 5.6576 |
| 1994-05-01 | 3.9626 |
| 1994-06-01 | 3.3039 |
| 1994-07-01 | 1.7398 |
| 1994-08-01 | 1.0439 |
| 1994-09-01 | 0.5180 |
| 1994-10-01 | 0.4054 |
| 1994-11-01 | 0.4316 |
| 1994-12-01 | 0.3353 |
| 1995-01-01 | 0.4106 |
| 1995-02-01 | 0.3459 |
| 1995-03-01 | 0.6928 |
| 1995-04-01 | 0.4077 |
| 1995-05-01 | 0.3737 |
| 1995-06-01 | 0.4045 |
| 1995-07-01 | 0.3379 |
| 1995-08-01 | 0.6818 |
| 1995-09-01 | 0.9023 |
| 1995-10-01 | 1.3500 |
| 1995-11-01 | 2.2813 |
| 1995-12-01 | 3.3009 |
| 1996-01-01 | 3.5696 |
| 1996-02-01 | 6.8377 |
| 1996-03-01 | 7.2873 |
| 1996-04-01 | 7.3184 |
| 1996-05-01 | 7.6282 |
| 1996-06-01 | 6.6269 |
| 1996-07-01 | 6.7806 |
| 1996-08-01 | 3.8321 |
| 1996-09-01 | 2.9526 |
| 1996-10-01 | 1.5551 |
| 1996-11-01 | 1.5280 |
| 1996-12-01 | 1.6799 |
| 1997-01-01 | 1.2023 |
| 1997-02-01 | 0.7748 |
| 1997-03-01 | 0.7175 |
| 1997-04-01 | 0.7715 |
| 1997-05-01 | 0.3849 |
| 1997-06-01 | 0.3400 |
| 1997-07-01 | 0.2847 |
| 1997-08-01 | 0.2367 |
| 1997-09-01 | 0.1629 |
| 1997-10-01 | 0.1299 |
| 1997-11-01 | 0.1164 |
| 1997-12-01 | 0.0770 |
| 1998-01-01 | 0.0866 |
| 1998-02-01 | 0.0690 |
| 1998-03-01 | 0.0460 |
| 1998-04-01 | 0.0859 |
| 1998-05-01 | 0.0823 |
| 1998-06-01 | 0.0576 |
| 1998-07-01 | 0.0582 |
| 1998-08-01 | 0.0806 |
| 1998-09-01 | 0.3728 |
| 1998-10-01 | 0.8111 |
| 1998-11-01 | 0.4779 |
| 1998-12-01 | 0.4626 |
| 1999-01-01 | 1.1327 |
| 1999-02-01 | 0.4697 |
| 1999-03-01 | 0.5573 |
| 1999-04-01 | 0.8164 |
| 1999-05-01 | 0.5314 |
| 1999-06-01 | 0.4190 |
| 1999-07-01 | 0.5150 |
| 1999-08-01 | 0.6245 |
| 1999-09-01 | 0.3836 |
| 1999-10-01 | 0.2179 |
| 1999-11-01 | 0.0747 |
| 1999-12-01 | 0.0601 |
| 2000-01-01 | 0.0561 |
| 2000-02-01 | 0.0575 |
| 2000-03-01 | 0.0279 |
| 2000-04-01 | 0.0625 |
| 2000-05-01 | 0.0827 |
| 2000-06-01 | 0.0981 |
| 2000-07-01 | 0.0427 |
| 2000-08-01 | 0.0341 |
| 2000-09-01 | 0.0755 |
| 2000-10-01 | 0.0800 |
| 2000-11-01 | 0.0896 |
| 2000-12-01 | 0.1101 |
| 2001-01-01 | 0.1591 |
| 2001-02-01 | 0.2163 |
| 2001-03-01 | 0.4791 |
| 2001-04-01 | 1.5331 |
| 2001-05-01 | 1.7157 |
| 2001-06-01 | 1.6166 |
| 2001-07-01 | 1.7894 |
| 2001-08-01 | 1.6015 |
| 2001-09-01 | 10.8516 |
| 2001-10-01 | 18.4055 |
| 2001-11-01 | 21.1123 |
| 2001-12-01 | 9.7172 |
| 2002-01-01 | 6.2410 |
| 2002-02-01 | 4.0291 |
| 2002-03-01 | 2.0118 |
| 2002-04-01 | 2.3451 |
| 2002-05-01 | 2.2453 |
| 2002-06-01 | 3.4235 |
| 2002-07-01 | 5.9212 |
| 2002-08-01 | 12.6432 |
| 2002-09-01 | 7.4731 |
| 2002-10-01 | 14.5445 |
| 2002-11-01 | 13.9101 |
| 2002-12-01 | 12.2521 |
| 2003-01-01 | 9.3591 |
| 2003-02-01 | 10.0421 |
| 2003-03-01 | 30.5090 |
| 2003-04-01 | 17.8546 |
| 2003-05-01 | 17.2172 |
| 2003-06-01 | 12.9239 |
| 2003-07-01 | 8.6029 |
| 2003-08-01 | 4.4456 |
| 2003-09-01 | 4.9397 |
| 2003-10-01 | 3.1730 |
| 2003-11-01 | 1.7086 |
| 2003-12-01 | 1.6689 |
| 2004-01-01 | 1.9239 |
| 2004-02-01 | 1.2875 |
| 2004-03-01 | 1.6300 |
| 2004-04-01 | 1.4780 |
| 2004-05-01 | 1.2551 |
| 2004-06-01 | 1.1619 |
| 2004-07-01 | 1.3279 |
| 2004-08-01 | 1.5216 |
| 2004-09-01 | 1.2492 |
| 2004-10-01 | 1.1395 |
| 2004-11-01 | 1.3711 |
| 2004-12-01 | 1.3113 |
| 2005-01-01 | 1.0707 |
| 2005-02-01 | 1.5502 |
| 2005-03-01 | 1.9272 |
| 2005-04-01 | 2.0097 |
| 2005-05-01 | 2.8319 |
| 2005-06-01 | 2.5152 |
| 2005-07-01 | 1.6285 |
| 2005-08-01 | 1.3962 |
| 2005-09-01 | 1.2059 |
| 2005-10-01 | 0.7326 |
| 2005-11-01 | 0.6449 |
| 2005-12-01 | 0.4595 |
| 2006-01-01 | 0.3481 |
| 2006-02-01 | 0.3214 |
| 2006-03-01 | 0.2650 |
| 2006-04-01 | 0.1662 |
| 2006-05-01 | 0.1722 |
| 2006-06-01 | 0.1844 |
| 2006-07-01 | 0.1557 |
| 2006-08-01 | 0.1144 |
| 2006-09-01 | 0.0922 |
| 2006-10-01 | 0.0771 |
| 2006-11-01 | 0.0725 |
| 2006-12-01 | 0.0536 |
| 2007-01-01 | 0.0840 |
| 2007-02-01 | 0.0880 |
| 2007-03-01 | 0.0790 |
| 2007-04-01 | 0.0623 |
| 2007-05-01 | 0.0649 |
| 2007-06-01 | 0.0749 |
| 2007-07-01 | 0.0969 |
| 2007-08-01 | 0.3260 |
| 2007-09-01 | 0.4909 |
| 2007-10-01 | 0.3050 |
| 2007-11-01 | 0.5096 |
| 2007-12-01 | 1.0066 |
| 2008-01-01 | 3.1888 |
| 2008-02-01 | 5.6948 |
| 2008-03-01 | 8.7073 |
| 2008-04-01 | 11.1447 |
| 2008-05-01 | 5.1196 |
| 2008-06-01 | 24.7988 |
| 2008-07-01 | 33.9028 |
| 2008-08-01 | 47.6938 |
| 2008-09-01 | 75.1417 |
| 2008-10-01 | 98.9670 |
| 2008-11-01 | 99.7846 |
| 2008-12-01 | 99.9566 |
| 2009-01-01 | 99.9438 |
| 2009-02-01 | 99.9629 |
| 2009-03-01 | 99.9656 |
| 2009-04-01 | 99.9021 |
| 2009-05-01 | 99.4257 |
| 2009-06-01 | 98.5874 |
| 2009-07-01 | 97.1160 |
| 2009-08-01 | 82.2573 |
| 2009-09-01 | 48.3689 |
| 2009-10-01 | 44.5444 |
| 2009-11-01 | 49.7281 |
| 2009-12-01 | 30.4389 |
| 2010-01-01 | 14.1276 |
| 2010-02-01 | 20.0980 |
| 2010-03-01 | 10.1024 |
| 2010-04-01 | 3.8705 |
| 2010-05-01 | 25.4304 |
| 2010-06-01 | 32.2806 |
| 2010-07-01 | 11.7675 |
| 2010-08-01 | 7.4546 |
| 2010-09-01 | 7.2462 |
| 2010-10-01 | 3.4352 |
| 2010-11-01 | 2.7644 |
| 2010-12-01 | 3.3986 |
| 2011-01-01 | 1.9625 |
| 2011-02-01 | 1.1571 |
| 2011-03-01 | 1.6081 |
| 2011-04-01 | 2.6655 |
| 2011-05-01 | 2.9978 |
| 2011-06-01 | 3.8082 |
| 2011-07-01 | 9.3214 |
| 2011-08-01 | 36.5990 |
| 2011-09-01 | 52.8911 |
| 2011-10-01 | 66.5557 |
| 2011-11-01 | 68.5440 |
| 2011-12-01 | 53.2710 |
| 2012-01-01 | 48.0438 |
| 2012-02-01 | 36.7733 |
| 2012-03-01 | 29.4463 |
| 2012-04-01 | 31.6255 |
| 2012-05-01 | 35.9024 |
| 2012-06-01 | 50.7368 |
| 2012-07-01 | 66.5094 |
| 2012-08-01 | 55.3832 |
| 2012-09-01 | 45.0575 |
| 2012-10-01 | 45.0502 |
| 2012-11-01 | 39.0370 |
| 2012-12-01 | 27.8476 |
| 2013-01-01 | 18.5878 |
| 2013-02-01 | 23.6587 |
| 2013-03-01 | 25.4463 |
| 2013-04-01 | 28.6532 |
| 2013-05-01 | 17.7030 |
| 2013-06-01 | 15.2815 |
| 2013-07-01 | 15.0201 |
| 2013-08-01 | 5.8441 |
| 2013-09-01 | 3.2050 |
| 2013-10-01 | 3.1196 |
| 2013-11-01 | 2.4327 |
| 2013-12-01 | 2.2639 |
| 2014-01-01 | 1.7227 |
| 2014-02-01 | 1.5558 |
| 2014-03-01 | 1.1824 |
| 2014-04-01 | 1.2626 |
| 2014-05-01 | 1.2603 |
| 2014-06-01 | 1.4521 |
| 2014-07-01 | 1.5609 |
| 2014-08-01 | 2.0535 |
| 2014-09-01 | 2.4750 |
| 2014-10-01 | 2.5560 |
| 2014-11-01 | 1.9107 |
| 2014-12-01 | 1.8868 |
| 2015-01-01 | 1.7194 |
| 2015-02-01 | 1.3255 |
| 2015-03-01 | 0.9859 |
| 2015-04-01 | 0.8520 |
| 2015-05-01 | 1.0440 |
| 2015-06-01 | 1.1999 |
| 2015-07-01 | 1.7773 |
| 2015-08-01 | 1.3254 |
| 2015-09-01 | 2.2137 |
| 2015-10-01 | 1.3612 |
| 2015-11-01 | 0.9106 |
| 2015-12-01 | 1.2211 |
| 2016-01-01 | 1.2962 |
| 2016-02-01 | 2.2756 |
| 2016-03-01 | 2.1709 |
| 2016-04-01 | 1.0902 |
| 2016-05-01 | 1.2377 |
| 2016-06-01 | 1.7061 |
| 2016-07-01 | 3.3791 |
| 2016-08-01 | 1.6583 |
| 2016-09-01 | 0.8768 |
| 2016-10-01 | 0.6560 |
| 2016-11-01 | 0.6224 |
| 2016-12-01 | 0.4804 |
| 2017-01-01 | 0.2766 |
| 2017-02-01 | 0.2785 |
| 2017-03-01 | 0.2057 |
| 2017-04-01 | 0.1465 |
| 2017-05-01 | 0.1372 |
| 2017-06-01 | 0.0854 |
| 2017-07-01 | 0.0708 |
| 2017-08-01 | 0.0694 |
| 2017-09-01 | 0.0519 |
| 2017-10-01 | 0.0396 |
| 2017-11-01 | 0.0360 |
| 2017-12-01 | 0.0269 |
| 2018-01-01 | 0.0311 |
| 2018-02-01 | 0.0430 |
| 2018-03-01 | 0.0605 |
| 2018-04-01 | 0.0490 |
| 2018-05-01 | 0.0745 |
| 2018-06-01 | 0.0922 |
| 2018-07-01 | 0.0953 |
| 2018-08-01 | 0.0892 |
| 2018-09-01 | 0.0903 |
| 2018-10-01 | 0.1440 |
| 2018-11-01 | 0.1786 |
| 2018-12-01 | 0.3506 |
| 2019-01-01 | 0.4102 |
| 2019-02-01 | 0.3404 |
| 2019-03-01 | 0.3488 |
| 2019-04-01 | 0.4583 |
| 2019-05-01 | 0.3679 |
| 2019-06-01 | 0.6250 |
| 2019-07-01 | 0.6444 |
| 2019-08-01 | 1.0432 |
| 2019-09-01 | 1.2647 |
| 2019-10-01 | 1.0647 |
| 2019-11-01 | 0.6762 |
| 2019-12-01 | 0.5644 |
| 2020-01-01 | 0.3600 |
| 2020-02-01 | 0.3720 |
| 2020-03-01 | 49.3116 |
| 2020-04-01 | 99.9812 |
| 2020-05-01 | 99.7953 |
| 2020-06-01 | 94.6374 |
| 2020-07-01 | 62.8482 |
| 2020-08-01 | 17.8183 |
| 2020-09-01 | 6.6259 |
| 2020-10-01 | 5.7209 |
| 2020-11-01 | 11.0817 |
| 2020-12-01 | 2.7923 |
| 2021-01-01 | 3.0126 |
| 2021-02-01 | 2.0308 |
| 2021-03-01 | 0.5509 |
| 2021-04-01 | 0.2832 |
| 2021-05-01 | 0.0864 |
| 2021-06-01 | 0.0211 |
| 2021-07-01 | 0.0130 |
| 2021-08-01 | 0.0145 |
| 2021-09-01 | 0.0129 |
| 2021-10-01 | 0.0106 |
| 2021-11-01 | 0.0211 |
| 2021-12-01 | 0.0459 |
| 2022-01-01 | 0.0537 |
| 2022-02-01 | 0.0615 |
| 2022-03-01 | 1.4529 |
| 2022-04-01 | 1.6951 |
| 2022-05-01 | 2.5061 |
| 2022-06-01 | 5.2652 |
| 2022-07-01 | 11.1124 |
| 2022-08-01 | 9.8839 |
| 2022-09-01 | 37.4774 |
| 2022-10-01 | 68.2551 |
| 2022-11-01 | 32.5031 |
| 2022-12-01 | 10.1711 |
| 2023-01-01 | 4.1711 |
| 2023-02-01 | 2.9200 |
| 2023-03-01 | 5.5636 |
| 2023-04-01 | 4.2031 |
| 2023-05-01 | 4.9944 |
| 2023-06-01 | 5.1328 |
| 2023-07-01 | 5.5539 |
| 2023-08-01 | 7.1647 |
| 2023-09-01 | 6.6484 |
| 2023-10-01 | 9.2372 |
| 2023-11-01 | 7.2767 |
| 2023-12-01 | 4.2278 |
| 2024-01-01 | 4.3231 |
| 2024-02-01 | 4.2549 |
| 2024-03-01 | 3.0549 |
| 2024-04-01 | 2.9762 |
| 2024-05-01 | 2.8001 |
| 2024-06-01 | 3.2952 |
| 2024-07-01 | 3.6141 |
| 2024-08-01 | 5.2056 |
| 2024-09-01 | 4.0606 |
| 2024-10-01 | 3.3869 |
| 2024-11-01 | 3.7368 |
| 2024-12-01 | 5.7742 |
| 2025-01-01 | 3.7474 |
| 2025-02-01 | 2.8147 |
| 2025-03-01 | 3.5975 |
| 2025-04-01 | 7.8862 |
| 2025-05-01 | 3.6803 |
| 2025-06-01 | 4.3480 |
| 2025-07-01 | 3.3382 |
| 2025-08-01 | 3.5047 |
| 2025-09-01 | 3.4578 |
| 2025-10-01 | 2.8952 |
| 2025-11-01 | 2.6106 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2.6834 |
| 2026-01-01 | 1.6651 |
| 2026-02-01 | 1.8170 |
| 2026-03-01 | 3.1858 |
| 2026-04-01 | 5.3416 |
| 2026-05-01 | 4.3175 |
| 2026-06-01 | 3.2130 |
| 2026-07-01 | 2.3648 |
| 2026-08-01 | 1.7405 |
| 2026-09-01 | 2.1106 |