Table Data - Recession Probability for the United States, Median Estimate

Title Recession Probability for the United States, Median Estimate
Series ID RECRISKUSP50
Source Furno, Francesco, Giannone, Domenico
Release RecessionRisk.com (Not a Press Release)
Seasonal Adjustment Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Percent
Date Range 1980-01-01 to 2026-10-01
Last Updated 2026-11-02 12:05 PM CST
Notes Monthly median (50th percentile) probability of recession for the United States. Values range from 0 to 100, where values closer to 100 indicate higher probability of recession. United States series begins January 1980. Produced by Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone. For methodology, see: https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/22222_7.html
DATE VALUE
1980-01-01 24.2837
1980-02-01 2.3199
1980-03-01 95.7640
1980-04-01 99.9910
1980-05-01 99.9990
1980-06-01 99.9621
1980-07-01 97.1931
1980-08-01 17.3217
1980-09-01 4.3832
1980-10-01 0.7524
1980-11-01 0.3126
1980-12-01 9.4944
1981-01-01 42.0199
1981-02-01 25.9996
1981-03-01 10.7794
1981-04-01 1.2871
1981-05-01 0.8491
1981-06-01 7.1865
1981-07-01 42.2169
1981-08-01 63.1699
1981-09-01 99.1518
1981-10-01 99.5756
1981-11-01 99.8710
1981-12-01 99.2680
1982-01-01 98.3826
1982-02-01 99.7386
1982-03-01 99.9382
1982-04-01 99.3666
1982-05-01 99.7421
1982-06-01 99.8367
1982-07-01 99.8568
1982-08-01 99.9838
1982-09-01 99.9414
1982-10-01 99.3658
1982-11-01 98.0478
1982-12-01 93.2120
1983-01-01 37.8787
1983-02-01 0.8375
1983-03-01 0.3630
1983-04-01 0.1434
1983-05-01 0.0473
1983-06-01 0.0215
1983-07-01 0.0020
1983-08-01 0.0030
1983-09-01 0.0024
1983-10-01 0.0008
1983-11-01 0.0003
1983-12-01 0.0001
1984-01-01 0.0054
1984-02-01 0.0047
1984-03-01 0.0362
1984-04-01 0.0080
1984-05-01 0.0562
1984-06-01 0.1966
1984-07-01 0.3336
1984-08-01 2.4227
1984-09-01 1.5454
1984-10-01 1.0100
1984-11-01 1.0649
1984-12-01 0.7918
1985-01-01 0.7631
1985-02-01 0.8614
1985-03-01 3.5558
1985-04-01 4.0462
1985-05-01 6.5241
1985-06-01 4.0341
1985-07-01 3.0184
1985-08-01 3.1962
1985-09-01 2.9359
1985-10-01 3.5990
1985-11-01 0.3110
1985-12-01 0.5229
1986-01-01 0.8075
1986-02-01 1.2500
1986-03-01 3.0781
1986-04-01 6.9482
1986-05-01 0.3233
1986-06-01 1.7523
1986-07-01 5.4294
1986-08-01 0.2578
1986-09-01 0.8336
1986-10-01 1.0090
1986-11-01 0.4456
1986-12-01 0.6213
1987-01-01 0.1317
1987-02-01 0.4120
1987-03-01 0.0803
1987-04-01 0.3165
1987-05-01 0.2036
1987-06-01 0.0934
1987-07-01 0.0226
1987-08-01 0.0089
1987-09-01 0.0111
1987-10-01 0.1281
1987-11-01 18.9084
1987-12-01 1.9262
1988-01-01 13.2751
1988-02-01 2.0803
1988-03-01 0.3135
1988-04-01 0.7026
1988-05-01 0.2385
1988-06-01 0.1360
1988-07-01 0.4909
1988-08-01 0.7167
1988-09-01 0.4828
1988-10-01 0.0980
1988-11-01 0.2161
1988-12-01 0.3305
1989-01-01 0.2384
1989-02-01 0.2592
1989-03-01 0.9294
1989-04-01 0.2950
1989-05-01 1.3849
1989-06-01 5.0804
1989-07-01 6.3942
1989-08-01 9.0826
1989-09-01 4.5083
1989-10-01 4.6240
1989-11-01 3.2852
1989-12-01 2.6352
1990-01-01 3.8210
1990-02-01 1.8886
1990-03-01 0.7491
1990-04-01 0.6943
1990-05-01 1.1220
1990-06-01 0.9753
1990-07-01 3.1108
1990-08-01 12.2955
1990-09-01 40.9828
1990-10-01 91.3200
1990-11-01 92.8585
1990-12-01 90.7139
1991-01-01 99.1541
1991-02-01 91.9702
1991-03-01 55.7209
1991-04-01 22.8060
1991-05-01 8.8515
1991-06-01 0.6047
1991-07-01 0.5038
1991-08-01 0.1783
1991-09-01 0.0646
1991-10-01 0.1814
1991-11-01 1.1352
1991-12-01 4.3094
1992-01-01 2.8686
1992-02-01 0.1805
1992-03-01 0.0742
1992-04-01 0.2308
1992-05-01 0.0531
1992-06-01 0.1705
1992-07-01 0.1253
1992-08-01 0.1364
1992-09-01 0.8100
1992-10-01 0.6064
1992-11-01 0.1210
1992-12-01 0.0844
1993-01-01 0.0385
1993-02-01 0.0564
1993-03-01 0.1376
1993-04-01 0.5879
1993-05-01 0.3622
1993-06-01 0.7520
1993-07-01 0.5548
1993-08-01 0.4503
1993-09-01 0.4323
1993-10-01 0.1221
1993-11-01 0.1134
1993-12-01 0.0430
1994-01-01 0.0364
1994-02-01 0.0384
1994-03-01 0.0243
1994-04-01 0.0360
1994-05-01 0.0163
1994-06-01 0.0120
1994-07-01 0.0137
1994-08-01 0.0146
1994-09-01 0.0102
1994-10-01 0.0075
1994-11-01 0.0084
1994-12-01 0.0370
1995-01-01 0.0178
1995-02-01 0.0545
1995-03-01 0.2548
1995-04-01 0.3227
1995-05-01 3.0896
1995-06-01 4.6866
1995-07-01 0.5093
1995-08-01 2.5235
1995-09-01 1.6192
1995-10-01 2.9964
1995-11-01 4.4022
1995-12-01 5.2669
1996-01-01 7.3592
1996-02-01 5.5283
1996-03-01 3.0858
1996-04-01 1.0997
1996-05-01 1.1725
1996-06-01 0.1699
1996-07-01 1.2395
1996-08-01 0.3574
1996-09-01 0.6277
1996-10-01 0.7320
1996-11-01 0.2189
1996-12-01 0.0858
1997-01-01 0.1156
1997-02-01 0.1418
1997-03-01 0.1058
1997-04-01 0.1255
1997-05-01 0.0363
1997-06-01 0.0638
1997-07-01 0.0157
1997-08-01 0.0363
1997-09-01 0.1018
1997-10-01 0.0350
1997-11-01 0.0521
1997-12-01 0.0739
1998-01-01 0.1108
1998-02-01 0.1687
1998-03-01 0.1595
1998-04-01 0.2274
1998-05-01 0.4451
1998-06-01 1.3175
1998-07-01 1.0001
1998-08-01 1.7640
1998-09-01 13.0723
1998-10-01 37.9594
1998-11-01 11.0931
1998-12-01 10.7367
1999-01-01 1.2029
1999-02-01 0.6941
1999-03-01 0.3624
1999-04-01 0.2605
1999-05-01 0.0935
1999-06-01 0.0625
1999-07-01 0.1593
1999-08-01 0.1715
1999-09-01 0.0869
1999-10-01 0.2183
1999-11-01 0.0386
1999-12-01 0.0333
2000-01-01 0.0578
2000-02-01 0.0721
2000-03-01 0.1226
2000-04-01 0.1731
2000-05-01 1.4016
2000-06-01 2.7440
2000-07-01 0.5301
2000-08-01 0.9895
2000-09-01 1.0155
2000-10-01 2.2379
2000-11-01 2.0042
2000-12-01 21.4801
2001-01-01 55.2381
2001-02-01 49.5555
2001-03-01 48.0187
2001-04-01 78.5355
2001-05-01 70.5803
2001-06-01 23.8698
2001-07-01 20.6080
2001-08-01 6.1790
2001-09-01 17.9277
2001-10-01 72.1383
2001-11-01 31.1990
2001-12-01 17.1050
2002-01-01 6.1240
2002-02-01 1.9531
2002-03-01 0.7699
2002-04-01 0.3903
2002-05-01 0.4524
2002-06-01 0.4809
2002-07-01 9.4193
2002-08-01 13.0009
2002-09-01 7.3083
2002-10-01 6.2928
2002-11-01 7.8582
2002-12-01 1.2586
2003-01-01 1.5752
2003-02-01 2.8375
2003-03-01 12.3584
2003-04-01 19.9507
2003-05-01 3.4030
2003-06-01 5.4028
2003-07-01 1.1869
2003-08-01 0.2532
2003-09-01 0.3282
2003-10-01 0.1134
2003-11-01 0.0165
2003-12-01 0.0060
2004-01-01 0.0035
2004-02-01 0.0053
2004-03-01 0.0049
2004-04-01 0.0046
2004-05-01 0.0037
2004-06-01 0.0041
2004-07-01 0.0057
2004-08-01 0.0140
2004-09-01 0.0178
2004-10-01 0.0344
2004-11-01 0.0322
2004-12-01 0.0213
2005-01-01 0.0245
2005-02-01 0.0483
2005-03-01 0.0580
2005-04-01 0.2737
2005-05-01 0.5094
2005-06-01 0.2626
2005-07-01 0.1797
2005-08-01 0.2340
2005-09-01 0.0330
2005-10-01 0.0272
2005-11-01 0.0262
2005-12-01 0.0629
2006-01-01 0.0608
2006-02-01 0.0470
2006-03-01 0.1016
2006-04-01 0.0583
2006-05-01 0.1397
2006-06-01 0.2713
2006-07-01 0.1501
2006-08-01 0.1390
2006-09-01 0.2980
2006-10-01 0.3792
2006-11-01 0.6719
2006-12-01 0.4091
2007-01-01 0.5836
2007-02-01 0.1088
2007-03-01 0.2263
2007-04-01 0.1927
2007-05-01 0.1651
2007-06-01 0.1172
2007-07-01 0.3461
2007-08-01 0.9203
2007-09-01 0.4624
2007-10-01 0.3358
2007-11-01 2.8463
2007-12-01 14.3409
2008-01-01 17.1033
2008-02-01 33.4870
2008-03-01 67.8902
2008-04-01 69.3025
2008-05-01 11.1247
2008-06-01 8.7951
2008-07-01 16.1638
2008-08-01 18.2758
2008-09-01 80.9653
2008-10-01 99.9975
2008-11-01 99.9979
2008-12-01 99.9994
2009-01-01 99.9927
2009-02-01 99.9940
2009-03-01 99.9926
2009-04-01 99.9630
2009-05-01 97.9616
2009-06-01 94.2007
2009-07-01 61.2301
2009-08-01 8.4249
2009-09-01 1.0556
2009-10-01 0.3272
2009-11-01 1.0734
2009-12-01 0.6971
2010-01-01 0.2537
2010-02-01 0.5444
2010-03-01 0.0707
2010-04-01 0.0499
2010-05-01 1.1976
2010-06-01 1.8347
2010-07-01 0.8387
2010-08-01 1.1497
2010-09-01 1.2974
2010-10-01 0.1103
2010-11-01 0.0901
2010-12-01 0.1327
2011-01-01 0.0218
2011-02-01 0.0156
2011-03-01 0.0189
2011-04-01 0.0170
2011-05-01 0.0688
2011-06-01 0.1245
2011-07-01 0.6525
2011-08-01 5.1056
2011-09-01 5.8136
2011-10-01 14.4071
2011-11-01 10.8112
2011-12-01 2.8170
2012-01-01 0.4359
2012-02-01 0.3660
2012-03-01 0.2410
2012-04-01 0.1115
2012-05-01 0.3045
2012-06-01 6.5864
2012-07-01 3.4693
2012-08-01 2.7808
2012-09-01 0.5781
2012-10-01 0.5642
2012-11-01 2.3040
2012-12-01 0.6110
2013-01-01 0.1536
2013-02-01 0.1037
2013-03-01 0.3023
2013-04-01 0.4656
2013-05-01 0.4660
2013-06-01 0.5957
2013-07-01 0.1783
2013-08-01 0.1031
2013-09-01 0.0737
2013-10-01 0.0706
2013-11-01 0.0448
2013-12-01 0.0269
2014-01-01 0.1987
2014-02-01 0.0693
2014-03-01 0.0357
2014-04-01 0.0273
2014-05-01 0.0393
2014-06-01 0.0537
2014-07-01 0.0520
2014-08-01 0.0310
2014-09-01 0.0391
2014-10-01 0.0474
2014-11-01 0.0329
2014-12-01 0.0567
2015-01-01 0.2413
2015-02-01 0.3385
2015-03-01 0.2867
2015-04-01 0.2839
2015-05-01 0.1673
2015-06-01 0.2138
2015-07-01 0.3762
2015-08-01 1.1752
2015-09-01 4.3837
2015-10-01 2.9964
2015-11-01 1.3430
2015-12-01 3.9563
2016-01-01 7.2266
2016-02-01 12.3079
2016-03-01 2.3370
2016-04-01 0.5317
2016-05-01 0.4953
2016-06-01 0.4026
2016-07-01 0.4924
2016-08-01 0.7173
2016-09-01 0.3819
2016-10-01 0.2602
2016-11-01 0.1687
2016-12-01 0.0831
2017-01-01 0.0431
2017-02-01 0.0156
2017-03-01 0.0273
2017-04-01 0.0389
2017-05-01 0.0300
2017-06-01 0.0326
2017-07-01 0.0283
2017-08-01 0.0135
2017-09-01 0.0057
2017-10-01 0.0121
2017-11-01 0.0181
2017-12-01 0.0070
2018-01-01 0.0080
2018-02-01 0.0052
2018-03-01 0.0100
2018-04-01 0.0113
2018-05-01 0.0091
2018-06-01 0.0077
2018-07-01 0.0185
2018-08-01 0.0060
2018-09-01 0.0087
2018-10-01 0.0250
2018-11-01 0.0139
2018-12-01 0.1449
2019-01-01 0.1034
2019-02-01 0.1083
2019-03-01 0.0676
2019-04-01 0.1115
2019-05-01 0.2118
2019-06-01 0.3196
2019-07-01 0.3876
2019-08-01 2.6369
2019-09-01 1.6927
2019-10-01 1.8277
2019-11-01 1.6998
2019-12-01 2.2144
2020-01-01 0.4350
2020-02-01 0.9561
2020-03-01 81.6747
2020-04-01 99.6376
2020-05-01 74.6521
2020-06-01 2.1727
2020-07-01 0.3157
2020-08-01 0.0802
2020-09-01 0.1123
2020-10-01 0.0269
2020-11-01 0.0469
2020-12-01 0.0056
2021-01-01 0.0078
2021-02-01 0.0049
2021-03-01 0.0009
2021-04-01 0.0038
2021-05-01 0.0024
2021-06-01 0.0035
2021-07-01 0.0049
2021-08-01 0.0056
2021-09-01 0.0038
2021-10-01 0.0038
2021-11-01 0.0041
2021-12-01 0.0144
2022-01-01 0.0198
2022-02-01 0.0164
2022-03-01 0.0697
2022-04-01 0.0894
2022-05-01 0.2627
2022-06-01 1.2729
2022-07-01 2.0349
2022-08-01 1.9838
2022-09-01 3.5197
2022-10-01 8.1931
2022-11-01 17.8027
2022-12-01 9.5738
2023-01-01 9.5764
2023-02-01 3.9671
2023-03-01 26.2427
2023-04-01 12.3765
2023-05-01 17.5582
2023-06-01 5.9416
2023-07-01 3.2654
2023-08-01 1.7532
2023-09-01 1.2316
2023-10-01 3.7509
2023-11-01 5.4641
2023-12-01 2.9609
2024-01-01 1.5603
2024-02-01 2.7115
2024-03-01 0.9068
2024-04-01 1.6881
2024-05-01 1.4823
2024-06-01 1.8363
2024-07-01 2.9059
2024-08-01 2.7716
2024-09-01 2.3134
2024-10-01 2.5738
2024-11-01 1.7353
2024-12-01 1.0853
2025-01-01 0.5735
2025-02-01 0.6442
2025-03-01 1.4613
2025-04-01 5.2050
2025-05-01 2.5466
2025-06-01 1.2637
2025-07-01 1.5675
2025-08-01 1.5211
2025-09-01 1.2657
2025-10-01 1.2301
2025-11-01 1.8551
2025-12-01 2.0542
2026-01-01 0.2214
2026-02-01 0.2170
2026-03-01 0.2092
2026-04-01 0.1911
2026-05-01 0.0943
2026-06-01 0.1405
2026-07-01 0.0485
2026-08-01 0.0810
2026-09-01 0.0859
2026-10-01 0.0512

Back to Top