Table Data - Recession Probability for the United States, Median Estimate

Title Recession Probability for the United States, Median Estimate
Series ID RECRISKUSP50
Source Furno, Francesco, Giannone, Domenico
Release RecessionRisk.com (Not a Press Release)
Seasonal Adjustment Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Percent
Date Range 1980-01-01 to 2026-07-01
Last Updated 2026-08-10 3:17 PM CDT
Notes Monthly median (50th percentile) probability of recession for the United States. Values range from 0 to 100, where values closer to 100 indicate higher probability of recession. United States series begins January 1980. Produced by Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone. For methodology, see: https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/22222_7.html
DATE VALUE
1980-01-01 24.2838
1980-02-01 2.3226
1980-03-01 95.7070
1980-04-01 99.9909
1980-05-01 99.9990
1980-06-01 99.9647
1980-07-01 97.2470
1980-08-01 17.3101
1980-09-01 4.3535
1980-10-01 0.7422
1980-11-01 0.3068
1980-12-01 9.3179
1981-01-01 41.5810
1981-02-01 25.7018
1981-03-01 10.6774
1981-04-01 1.2881
1981-05-01 0.8454
1981-06-01 7.1247
1981-07-01 42.1774
1981-08-01 62.8614
1981-09-01 99.1396
1981-10-01 99.5705
1981-11-01 99.8719
1981-12-01 99.2730
1982-01-01 98.4035
1982-02-01 99.7373
1982-03-01 99.9375
1982-04-01 99.3725
1982-05-01 99.7480
1982-06-01 99.8347
1982-07-01 99.8553
1982-08-01 99.9837
1982-09-01 99.9408
1982-10-01 99.3620
1982-11-01 98.0716
1982-12-01 93.2262
1983-01-01 37.9674
1983-02-01 0.8336
1983-03-01 0.3619
1983-04-01 0.1434
1983-05-01 0.0472
1983-06-01 0.0216
1983-07-01 0.0019
1983-08-01 0.0030
1983-09-01 0.0024
1983-10-01 0.0008
1983-11-01 0.0003
1983-12-01 0.0001
1984-01-01 0.0054
1984-02-01 0.0046
1984-03-01 0.0357
1984-04-01 0.0079
1984-05-01 0.0556
1984-06-01 0.1932
1984-07-01 0.3302
1984-08-01 2.4008
1984-09-01 1.5418
1984-10-01 1.0049
1984-11-01 1.0630
1984-12-01 0.7915
1985-01-01 0.7639
1985-02-01 0.8662
1985-03-01 3.5843
1985-04-01 4.0550
1985-05-01 6.4834
1985-06-01 3.9921
1985-07-01 2.9340
1985-08-01 3.1806
1985-09-01 2.9316
1985-10-01 3.5268
1985-11-01 0.3104
1985-12-01 0.5253
1986-01-01 0.7748
1986-02-01 1.2316
1986-03-01 3.0895
1986-04-01 6.9910
1986-05-01 0.3244
1986-06-01 1.7613
1986-07-01 5.4724
1986-08-01 0.2595
1986-09-01 0.8242
1986-10-01 1.0102
1986-11-01 0.4478
1986-12-01 0.6231
1987-01-01 0.1315
1987-02-01 0.4114
1987-03-01 0.0803
1987-04-01 0.3102
1987-05-01 0.1799
1987-06-01 0.0881
1987-07-01 0.0226
1987-08-01 0.0088
1987-09-01 0.0110
1987-10-01 0.1266
1987-11-01 18.5180
1987-12-01 1.8725
1988-01-01 13.1407
1988-02-01 2.0727
1988-03-01 0.3162
1988-04-01 0.7043
1988-05-01 0.2400
1988-06-01 0.1346
1988-07-01 0.4796
1988-08-01 0.7129
1988-09-01 0.4880
1988-10-01 0.0998
1988-11-01 0.2193
1988-12-01 0.3352
1989-01-01 0.2395
1989-02-01 0.2571
1989-03-01 0.9219
1989-04-01 0.2945
1989-05-01 1.4026
1989-06-01 5.1172
1989-07-01 6.3824
1989-08-01 9.0705
1989-09-01 4.5251
1989-10-01 4.6661
1989-11-01 3.3148
1989-12-01 2.6652
1990-01-01 3.8695
1990-02-01 1.9119
1990-03-01 0.7546
1990-04-01 0.6959
1990-05-01 1.1254
1990-06-01 0.9773
1990-07-01 3.1394
1990-08-01 12.2195
1990-09-01 40.7235
1990-10-01 91.2030
1990-11-01 92.7924
1990-12-01 90.6463
1991-01-01 99.1759
1991-02-01 92.2274
1991-03-01 56.2357
1991-04-01 23.2666
1991-05-01 8.9273
1991-06-01 0.6036
1991-07-01 0.5057
1991-08-01 0.1786
1991-09-01 0.0647
1991-10-01 0.1816
1991-11-01 1.1352
1991-12-01 4.3512
1992-01-01 3.0285
1992-02-01 0.1814
1992-03-01 0.0735
1992-04-01 0.2267
1992-05-01 0.0520
1992-06-01 0.1713
1992-07-01 0.1260
1992-08-01 0.1376
1992-09-01 0.8154
1992-10-01 0.6102
1992-11-01 0.1210
1992-12-01 0.0850
1993-01-01 0.0385
1993-02-01 0.0564
1993-03-01 0.1377
1993-04-01 0.5915
1993-05-01 0.3631
1993-06-01 0.7550
1993-07-01 0.5585
1993-08-01 0.4539
1993-09-01 0.4366
1993-10-01 0.1231
1993-11-01 0.1137
1993-12-01 0.0430
1994-01-01 0.0365
1994-02-01 0.0383
1994-03-01 0.0244
1994-04-01 0.0355
1994-05-01 0.0163
1994-06-01 0.0120
1994-07-01 0.0136
1994-08-01 0.0147
1994-09-01 0.0104
1994-10-01 0.0074
1994-11-01 0.0083
1994-12-01 0.0373
1995-01-01 0.0180
1995-02-01 0.0548
1995-03-01 0.2557
1995-04-01 0.3240
1995-05-01 3.1157
1995-06-01 4.7011
1995-07-01 0.5165
1995-08-01 2.5450
1995-09-01 1.6338
1995-10-01 3.0223
1995-11-01 4.4321
1995-12-01 5.3023
1996-01-01 7.3571
1996-02-01 5.5563
1996-03-01 3.1143
1996-04-01 1.1067
1996-05-01 1.1755
1996-06-01 0.1710
1996-07-01 1.2418
1996-08-01 0.3574
1996-09-01 0.6244
1996-10-01 0.7330
1996-11-01 0.2196
1996-12-01 0.0854
1997-01-01 0.1158
1997-02-01 0.1420
1997-03-01 0.1059
1997-04-01 0.1255
1997-05-01 0.0366
1997-06-01 0.0644
1997-07-01 0.0158
1997-08-01 0.0365
1997-09-01 0.1020
1997-10-01 0.0351
1997-11-01 0.0522
1997-12-01 0.0745
1998-01-01 0.1109
1998-02-01 0.1693
1998-03-01 0.1604
1998-04-01 0.2280
1998-05-01 0.4483
1998-06-01 1.3267
1998-07-01 1.0067
1998-08-01 1.7699
1998-09-01 13.0304
1998-10-01 37.7989
1998-11-01 11.0941
1998-12-01 10.7488
1999-01-01 1.2033
1999-02-01 0.6894
1999-03-01 0.3625
1999-04-01 0.2608
1999-05-01 0.0933
1999-06-01 0.0622
1999-07-01 0.1603
1999-08-01 0.1716
1999-09-01 0.0865
1999-10-01 0.2163
1999-11-01 0.0381
1999-12-01 0.0331
2000-01-01 0.0574
2000-02-01 0.0713
2000-03-01 0.1228
2000-04-01 0.1734
2000-05-01 1.3882
2000-06-01 2.7141
2000-07-01 0.5284
2000-08-01 0.9955
2000-09-01 1.0200
2000-10-01 2.2392
2000-11-01 2.0116
2000-12-01 21.5495
2001-01-01 55.3842
2001-02-01 49.6627
2001-03-01 48.1269
2001-04-01 78.6831
2001-05-01 70.7087
2001-06-01 24.0201
2001-07-01 20.7120
2001-08-01 6.1957
2001-09-01 17.8951
2001-10-01 72.3659
2001-11-01 31.2978
2001-12-01 17.0853
2002-01-01 6.1254
2002-02-01 1.9551
2002-03-01 0.7632
2002-04-01 0.3924
2002-05-01 0.4483
2002-06-01 0.4768
2002-07-01 9.2713
2002-08-01 12.7534
2002-09-01 7.1762
2002-10-01 6.2183
2002-11-01 7.7749
2002-12-01 1.2499
2003-01-01 1.5681
2003-02-01 2.8424
2003-03-01 12.3534
2003-04-01 19.7975
2003-05-01 3.4034
2003-06-01 5.3782
2003-07-01 1.1818
2003-08-01 0.2535
2003-09-01 0.3297
2003-10-01 0.1127
2003-11-01 0.0164
2003-12-01 0.0059
2004-01-01 0.0034
2004-02-01 0.0053
2004-03-01 0.0049
2004-04-01 0.0046
2004-05-01 0.0036
2004-06-01 0.0041
2004-07-01 0.0056
2004-08-01 0.0139
2004-09-01 0.0179
2004-10-01 0.0346
2004-11-01 0.0322
2004-12-01 0.0214
2005-01-01 0.0246
2005-02-01 0.0483
2005-03-01 0.0581
2005-04-01 0.2743
2005-05-01 0.5113
2005-06-01 0.2630
2005-07-01 0.1805
2005-08-01 0.2334
2005-09-01 0.0330
2005-10-01 0.0273
2005-11-01 0.0262
2005-12-01 0.0629
2006-01-01 0.0612
2006-02-01 0.0470
2006-03-01 0.1017
2006-04-01 0.0584
2006-05-01 0.1402
2006-06-01 0.2718
2006-07-01 0.1508
2006-08-01 0.1395
2006-09-01 0.2983
2006-10-01 0.3802
2006-11-01 0.6868
2006-12-01 0.4159
2007-01-01 0.5872
2007-02-01 0.1090
2007-03-01 0.2272
2007-04-01 0.1940
2007-05-01 0.1662
2007-06-01 0.1178
2007-07-01 0.3473
2007-08-01 0.9190
2007-09-01 0.4610
2007-10-01 0.3341
2007-11-01 3.0600
2007-12-01 16.3790
2008-01-01 16.7666
2008-02-01 32.9555
2008-03-01 67.4288
2008-04-01 68.8150
2008-05-01 10.9954
2008-06-01 8.9455
2008-07-01 16.5864
2008-08-01 19.3375
2008-09-01 82.0522
2008-10-01 99.9976
2008-11-01 99.9978
2008-12-01 99.9994
2009-01-01 99.9928
2009-02-01 99.9940
2009-03-01 99.9926
2009-04-01 99.9628
2009-05-01 97.9430
2009-06-01 94.1518
2009-07-01 61.0124
2009-08-01 8.3323
2009-09-01 1.0499
2009-10-01 0.3246
2009-11-01 1.0651
2009-12-01 0.6965
2010-01-01 0.2536
2010-02-01 0.5426
2010-03-01 0.0698
2010-04-01 0.0497
2010-05-01 1.1811
2010-06-01 1.8105
2010-07-01 0.8312
2010-08-01 1.1305
2010-09-01 1.2770
2010-10-01 0.1102
2010-11-01 0.0901
2010-12-01 0.1332
2011-01-01 0.0216
2011-02-01 0.0153
2011-03-01 0.0186
2011-04-01 0.0171
2011-05-01 0.0695
2011-06-01 0.1230
2011-07-01 0.6510
2011-08-01 5.0459
2011-09-01 5.7157
2011-10-01 14.1225
2011-11-01 10.6845
2011-12-01 2.7883
2012-01-01 0.4342
2012-02-01 0.3689
2012-03-01 0.2637
2012-04-01 0.1185
2012-05-01 0.3066
2012-06-01 6.5731
2012-07-01 3.4996
2012-08-01 2.8121
2012-09-01 0.5962
2012-10-01 0.5747
2012-11-01 2.3137
2012-12-01 0.6121
2013-01-01 0.1540
2013-02-01 0.1038
2013-03-01 0.3048
2013-04-01 0.4809
2013-05-01 0.4706
2013-06-01 0.5947
2013-07-01 0.1781
2013-08-01 0.1034
2013-09-01 0.0739
2013-10-01 0.0710
2013-11-01 0.0449
2013-12-01 0.0270
2014-01-01 0.2000
2014-02-01 0.0695
2014-03-01 0.0356
2014-04-01 0.0275
2014-05-01 0.0392
2014-06-01 0.0543
2014-07-01 0.0524
2014-08-01 0.0311
2014-09-01 0.0391
2014-10-01 0.0474
2014-11-01 0.0331
2014-12-01 0.0566
2015-01-01 0.2403
2015-02-01 0.3381
2015-03-01 0.2870
2015-04-01 0.2829
2015-05-01 0.1677
2015-06-01 0.2139
2015-07-01 0.3748
2015-08-01 1.1706
2015-09-01 4.3588
2015-10-01 2.9941
2015-11-01 1.3455
2015-12-01 3.9479
2016-01-01 7.2279
2016-02-01 12.1806
2016-03-01 2.3318
2016-04-01 0.5291
2016-05-01 0.4926
2016-06-01 0.4023
2016-07-01 0.4907
2016-08-01 0.7200
2016-09-01 0.3833
2016-10-01 0.2611
2016-11-01 0.1690
2016-12-01 0.0831
2017-01-01 0.0433
2017-02-01 0.0158
2017-03-01 0.0276
2017-04-01 0.0390
2017-05-01 0.0303
2017-06-01 0.0325
2017-07-01 0.0284
2017-08-01 0.0134
2017-09-01 0.0056
2017-10-01 0.0120
2017-11-01 0.0181
2017-12-01 0.0070
2018-01-01 0.0079
2018-02-01 0.0052
2018-03-01 0.0100
2018-04-01 0.0113
2018-05-01 0.0090
2018-06-01 0.0076
2018-07-01 0.0183
2018-08-01 0.0059
2018-09-01 0.0086
2018-10-01 0.0248
2018-11-01 0.0140
2018-12-01 0.1459
2019-01-01 0.1052
2019-02-01 0.1096
2019-03-01 0.0682
2019-04-01 0.1118
2019-05-01 0.2105
2019-06-01 0.3218
2019-07-01 0.3890
2019-08-01 2.5988
2019-09-01 1.7025
2019-10-01 1.8074
2019-11-01 1.6027
2019-12-01 2.0446
2020-01-01 0.4171
2020-02-01 0.9584
2020-03-01 81.4706
2020-04-01 99.6330
2020-05-01 74.8654
2020-06-01 2.1511
2020-07-01 0.3159
2020-08-01 0.0802
2020-09-01 0.1120
2020-10-01 0.0266
2020-11-01 0.0464
2020-12-01 0.0056
2021-01-01 0.0077
2021-02-01 0.0048
2021-03-01 0.0009
2021-04-01 0.0037
2021-05-01 0.0024
2021-06-01 0.0035
2021-07-01 0.0049
2021-08-01 0.0056
2021-09-01 0.0038
2021-10-01 0.0038
2021-11-01 0.0040
2021-12-01 0.0145
2022-01-01 0.0198
2022-02-01 0.0164
2022-03-01 0.0690
2022-04-01 0.0885
2022-05-01 0.2614
2022-06-01 1.2821
2022-07-01 2.0834
2022-08-01 1.9683
2022-09-01 3.4977
2022-10-01 8.2696
2022-11-01 17.5866
2022-12-01 9.5336
2023-01-01 9.5992
2023-02-01 4.0174
2023-03-01 26.1974
2023-04-01 12.3431
2023-05-01 17.5777
2023-06-01 5.9749
2023-07-01 3.3025
2023-08-01 1.7710
2023-09-01 1.2411
2023-10-01 3.7798
2023-11-01 5.5149
2023-12-01 2.9839
2024-01-01 1.5684
2024-02-01 2.7418
2024-03-01 0.9113
2024-04-01 1.6959
2024-05-01 1.4948
2024-06-01 1.8521
2024-07-01 2.9420
2024-08-01 2.7928
2024-09-01 2.3381
2024-10-01 2.6005
2024-11-01 1.7495
2024-12-01 1.0895
2025-01-01 0.5750
2025-02-01 0.6490
2025-03-01 1.4685
2025-04-01 5.2012
2025-05-01 2.5506
2025-06-01 1.2744
2025-07-01 1.5806
2025-08-01 1.5288
2025-09-01 1.2771
2025-10-01 1.2393
2025-11-01 1.8757
2025-12-01 2.0764
2026-01-01 0.2230
2026-02-01 0.2178
2026-03-01 0.2104
2026-04-01 0.1922
2026-05-01 0.0948
2026-06-01 0.1417
2026-07-01 0.0463

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