Table Data - Recession Probability for the United States, Median Estimate

Title Recession Probability for the United States, Median Estimate
Series ID RECRISKUSP50
Source Furno, Francesco, Giannone, Domenico
Release RecessionRisk.com (Not a Press Release)
Seasonal Adjustment Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Percent
Date Range 1980-01-01 to 2026-09-01
Last Updated 2026-10-01 10:01 AM CDT
Notes Monthly median (50th percentile) probability of recession for the United States. Values range from 0 to 100, where values closer to 100 indicate higher probability of recession. United States series begins January 1980. Produced by Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone. For methodology, see: https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/22222_7.html
DATE VALUE
1980-01-01 24.2074
1980-02-01 2.3069
1980-03-01 95.8643
1980-04-01 99.9916
1980-05-01 99.9991
1980-06-01 99.9658
1980-07-01 97.2696
1980-08-01 17.2160
1980-09-01 4.3427
1980-10-01 0.7429
1980-11-01 0.3067
1980-12-01 9.4660
1981-01-01 42.0687
1981-02-01 25.5792
1981-03-01 10.6464
1981-04-01 1.2821
1981-05-01 0.8331
1981-06-01 7.0616
1981-07-01 42.2021
1981-08-01 63.4331
1981-09-01 99.1802
1981-10-01 99.5854
1981-11-01 99.8800
1981-12-01 99.3237
1982-01-01 98.4912
1982-02-01 99.7487
1982-03-01 99.9394
1982-04-01 99.4079
1982-05-01 99.7625
1982-06-01 99.8403
1982-07-01 99.8608
1982-08-01 99.9851
1982-09-01 99.9445
1982-10-01 99.3917
1982-11-01 98.1564
1982-12-01 93.3985
1983-01-01 37.9515
1983-02-01 0.8231
1983-03-01 0.3556
1983-04-01 0.1415
1983-05-01 0.0466
1983-06-01 0.0211
1983-07-01 0.0020
1983-08-01 0.0031
1983-09-01 0.0025
1983-10-01 0.0008
1983-11-01 0.0003
1983-12-01 0.0001
1984-01-01 0.0055
1984-02-01 0.0047
1984-03-01 0.0358
1984-04-01 0.0080
1984-05-01 0.0560
1984-06-01 0.1938
1984-07-01 0.3302
1984-08-01 2.3729
1984-09-01 1.5108
1984-10-01 0.9890
1984-11-01 1.0418
1984-12-01 0.7764
1985-01-01 0.7394
1985-02-01 0.8312
1985-03-01 3.4683
1985-04-01 3.9777
1985-05-01 6.4448
1985-06-01 3.9560
1985-07-01 2.9395
1985-08-01 3.1170
1985-09-01 2.9185
1985-10-01 3.5393
1985-11-01 0.3078
1985-12-01 0.5084
1986-01-01 0.7978
1986-02-01 1.2312
1986-03-01 3.0264
1986-04-01 6.8764
1986-05-01 0.3180
1986-06-01 1.7283
1986-07-01 5.3622
1986-08-01 0.2547
1986-09-01 0.8244
1986-10-01 0.9971
1986-11-01 0.4388
1986-12-01 0.6043
1987-01-01 0.1306
1987-02-01 0.4083
1987-03-01 0.0786
1987-04-01 0.3127
1987-05-01 0.2033
1987-06-01 0.0933
1987-07-01 0.0221
1987-08-01 0.0089
1987-09-01 0.0111
1987-10-01 0.1268
1987-11-01 18.3942
1987-12-01 1.9647
1988-01-01 13.1073
1988-02-01 2.0525
1988-03-01 0.3111
1988-04-01 0.6898
1988-05-01 0.2359
1988-06-01 0.1342
1988-07-01 0.4800
1988-08-01 0.7004
1988-09-01 0.4780
1988-10-01 0.0963
1988-11-01 0.2142
1988-12-01 0.3286
1989-01-01 0.2344
1989-02-01 0.2549
1989-03-01 0.9219
1989-04-01 0.2907
1989-05-01 1.3458
1989-06-01 4.9952
1989-07-01 6.3319
1989-08-01 9.0634
1989-09-01 4.4315
1989-10-01 4.5443
1989-11-01 3.2050
1989-12-01 2.5817
1990-01-01 3.7467
1990-02-01 1.8513
1990-03-01 0.7245
1990-04-01 0.6710
1990-05-01 1.0918
1990-06-01 0.9401
1990-07-01 3.0420
1990-08-01 12.2543
1990-09-01 41.3948
1990-10-01 91.5538
1990-11-01 93.1173
1990-12-01 91.1002
1991-01-01 99.2064
1991-02-01 92.2647
1991-03-01 56.1286
1991-04-01 22.7106
1991-05-01 8.8347
1991-06-01 0.5873
1991-07-01 0.4897
1991-08-01 0.1766
1991-09-01 0.0637
1991-10-01 0.1804
1991-11-01 1.1064
1991-12-01 4.2316
1992-01-01 2.8017
1992-02-01 0.1781
1992-03-01 0.0730
1992-04-01 0.2287
1992-05-01 0.0523
1992-06-01 0.1682
1992-07-01 0.1236
1992-08-01 0.1345
1992-09-01 0.7842
1992-10-01 0.5889
1992-11-01 0.1188
1992-12-01 0.0828
1993-01-01 0.0378
1993-02-01 0.0552
1993-03-01 0.1348
1993-04-01 0.5686
1993-05-01 0.3542
1993-06-01 0.7229
1993-07-01 0.5359
1993-08-01 0.4382
1993-09-01 0.4205
1993-10-01 0.1211
1993-11-01 0.1114
1993-12-01 0.0423
1994-01-01 0.0358
1994-02-01 0.0377
1994-03-01 0.0238
1994-04-01 0.0353
1994-05-01 0.0161
1994-06-01 0.0119
1994-07-01 0.0135
1994-08-01 0.0143
1994-09-01 0.0102
1994-10-01 0.0074
1994-11-01 0.0083
1994-12-01 0.0363
1995-01-01 0.0175
1995-02-01 0.0537
1995-03-01 0.2525
1995-04-01 0.3177
1995-05-01 3.0175
1995-06-01 4.6056
1995-07-01 0.4955
1995-08-01 2.4642
1995-09-01 1.5652
1995-10-01 2.9292
1995-11-01 4.3371
1995-12-01 5.1782
1996-01-01 7.3131
1996-02-01 5.4559
1996-03-01 3.0176
1996-04-01 1.0660
1996-05-01 1.1366
1996-06-01 0.1675
1996-07-01 1.2134
1996-08-01 0.3516
1996-09-01 0.6152
1996-10-01 0.7146
1996-11-01 0.2167
1996-12-01 0.0843
1997-01-01 0.1138
1997-02-01 0.1400
1997-03-01 0.1038
1997-04-01 0.1231
1997-05-01 0.0356
1997-06-01 0.0630
1997-07-01 0.0154
1997-08-01 0.0357
1997-09-01 0.0999
1997-10-01 0.0344
1997-11-01 0.0512
1997-12-01 0.0729
1998-01-01 0.1087
1998-02-01 0.1671
1998-03-01 0.1580
1998-04-01 0.2248
1998-05-01 0.4322
1998-06-01 1.2785
1998-07-01 0.9639
1998-08-01 1.7342
1998-09-01 12.9400
1998-10-01 37.9286
1998-11-01 11.0820
1998-12-01 10.6804
1999-01-01 1.1836
1999-02-01 0.6835
1999-03-01 0.3579
1999-04-01 0.2577
1999-05-01 0.0921
1999-06-01 0.0615
1999-07-01 0.1569
1999-08-01 0.1694
1999-09-01 0.0854
1999-10-01 0.2177
1999-11-01 0.0380
1999-12-01 0.0330
2000-01-01 0.0567
2000-02-01 0.0711
2000-03-01 0.1215
2000-04-01 0.1716
2000-05-01 1.3714
2000-06-01 2.6939
2000-07-01 0.5249
2000-08-01 0.9612
2000-09-01 0.9845
2000-10-01 2.1866
2000-11-01 1.9534
2000-12-01 21.4612
2001-01-01 55.6885
2001-02-01 49.8256
2001-03-01 48.5719
2001-04-01 79.0449
2001-05-01 70.9211
2001-06-01 23.7548
2001-07-01 20.5873
2001-08-01 6.1153
2001-09-01 17.9043
2001-10-01 72.5583
2001-11-01 31.3217
2001-12-01 17.0338
2002-01-01 6.0459
2002-02-01 1.9459
2002-03-01 0.7624
2002-04-01 0.3868
2002-05-01 0.4450
2002-06-01 0.4696
2002-07-01 9.3235
2002-08-01 12.8477
2002-09-01 7.2310
2002-10-01 6.3028
2002-11-01 7.8554
2002-12-01 1.2537
2003-01-01 1.5632
2003-02-01 2.8071
2003-03-01 12.2784
2003-04-01 19.9730
2003-05-01 3.3863
2003-06-01 5.3939
2003-07-01 1.1710
2003-08-01 0.2494
2003-09-01 0.3247
2003-10-01 0.1119
2003-11-01 0.0164
2003-12-01 0.0059
2004-01-01 0.0034
2004-02-01 0.0053
2004-03-01 0.0050
2004-04-01 0.0046
2004-05-01 0.0037
2004-06-01 0.0041
2004-07-01 0.0056
2004-08-01 0.0138
2004-09-01 0.0174
2004-10-01 0.0338
2004-11-01 0.0316
2004-12-01 0.0209
2005-01-01 0.0242
2005-02-01 0.0474
2005-03-01 0.0570
2005-04-01 0.2707
2005-05-01 0.4956
2005-06-01 0.2586
2005-07-01 0.1778
2005-08-01 0.2309
2005-09-01 0.0324
2005-10-01 0.0267
2005-11-01 0.0258
2005-12-01 0.0617
2006-01-01 0.0599
2006-02-01 0.0460
2006-03-01 0.1000
2006-04-01 0.0572
2006-05-01 0.1373
2006-06-01 0.2681
2006-07-01 0.1485
2006-08-01 0.1366
2006-09-01 0.2937
2006-10-01 0.3732
2006-11-01 0.6524
2006-12-01 0.4016
2007-01-01 0.5664
2007-02-01 0.1072
2007-03-01 0.2237
2007-04-01 0.1908
2007-05-01 0.1643
2007-06-01 0.1154
2007-07-01 0.3432
2007-08-01 0.9147
2007-09-01 0.4533
2007-10-01 0.3309
2007-11-01 2.7997
2007-12-01 14.1573
2008-01-01 16.9844
2008-02-01 33.2704
2008-03-01 67.9382
2008-04-01 69.5055
2008-05-01 11.0404
2008-06-01 8.7331
2008-07-01 16.0480
2008-08-01 18.1412
2008-09-01 81.1723
2008-10-01 99.9977
2008-11-01 99.9980
2008-12-01 99.9995
2009-01-01 99.9932
2009-02-01 99.9945
2009-03-01 99.9931
2009-04-01 99.9654
2009-05-01 97.9880
2009-06-01 94.3141
2009-07-01 61.2827
2009-08-01 8.3973
2009-09-01 1.0366
2009-10-01 0.3239
2009-11-01 1.0540
2009-12-01 0.6850
2010-01-01 0.2517
2010-02-01 0.5343
2010-03-01 0.0707
2010-04-01 0.0491
2010-05-01 1.1799
2010-06-01 1.8167
2010-07-01 0.8261
2010-08-01 1.1318
2010-09-01 1.2733
2010-10-01 0.1089
2010-11-01 0.0890
2010-12-01 0.1315
2011-01-01 0.0217
2011-02-01 0.0155
2011-03-01 0.0188
2011-04-01 0.0166
2011-05-01 0.0681
2011-06-01 0.1222
2011-07-01 0.6404
2011-08-01 5.0743
2011-09-01 5.8427
2011-10-01 14.3055
2011-11-01 10.7910
2011-12-01 2.7670
2012-01-01 0.4307
2012-02-01 0.3602
2012-03-01 0.2376
2012-04-01 0.1102
2012-05-01 0.2988
2012-06-01 6.5374
2012-07-01 3.4524
2012-08-01 2.7452
2012-09-01 0.5662
2012-10-01 0.5474
2012-11-01 2.2340
2012-12-01 0.5898
2013-01-01 0.1509
2013-02-01 0.1022
2013-03-01 0.2987
2013-04-01 0.4550
2013-05-01 0.4534
2013-06-01 0.5846
2013-07-01 0.1759
2013-08-01 0.1015
2013-09-01 0.0727
2013-10-01 0.0697
2013-11-01 0.0440
2013-12-01 0.0266
2014-01-01 0.1961
2014-02-01 0.0679
2014-03-01 0.0351
2014-04-01 0.0269
2014-05-01 0.0387
2014-06-01 0.0531
2014-07-01 0.0512
2014-08-01 0.0304
2014-09-01 0.0386
2014-10-01 0.0466
2014-11-01 0.0323
2014-12-01 0.0560
2015-01-01 0.2376
2015-02-01 0.3351
2015-03-01 0.2832
2015-04-01 0.2804
2015-05-01 0.1655
2015-06-01 0.2111
2015-07-01 0.3718
2015-08-01 1.1475
2015-09-01 4.3430
2015-10-01 2.9748
2015-11-01 1.3026
2015-12-01 3.9282
2016-01-01 7.1856
2016-02-01 12.1714
2016-03-01 2.3017
2016-04-01 0.5219
2016-05-01 0.4857
2016-06-01 0.3992
2016-07-01 0.4879
2016-08-01 0.6915
2016-09-01 0.3729
2016-10-01 0.2561
2016-11-01 0.1666
2016-12-01 0.0818
2017-01-01 0.0424
2017-02-01 0.0153
2017-03-01 0.0270
2017-04-01 0.0382
2017-05-01 0.0296
2017-06-01 0.0319
2017-07-01 0.0279
2017-08-01 0.0133
2017-09-01 0.0057
2017-10-01 0.0119
2017-11-01 0.0177
2017-12-01 0.0069
2018-01-01 0.0080
2018-02-01 0.0053
2018-03-01 0.0098
2018-04-01 0.0110
2018-05-01 0.0089
2018-06-01 0.0077
2018-07-01 0.0184
2018-08-01 0.0060
2018-09-01 0.0086
2018-10-01 0.0248
2018-11-01 0.0137
2018-12-01 0.1433
2019-01-01 0.1012
2019-02-01 0.1064
2019-03-01 0.0664
2019-04-01 0.1101
2019-05-01 0.2093
2019-06-01 0.3145
2019-07-01 0.3770
2019-08-01 2.5872
2019-09-01 1.6416
2019-10-01 1.7734
2019-11-01 1.6483
2019-12-01 2.1446
2020-01-01 0.4277
2020-02-01 0.9323
2020-03-01 81.8815
2020-04-01 99.6520
2020-05-01 75.0404
2020-06-01 2.1129
2020-07-01 0.3100
2020-08-01 0.0789
2020-09-01 0.1100
2020-10-01 0.0266
2020-11-01 0.0464
2020-12-01 0.0056
2021-01-01 0.0076
2021-02-01 0.0048
2021-03-01 0.0009
2021-04-01 0.0037
2021-05-01 0.0024
2021-06-01 0.0035
2021-07-01 0.0049
2021-08-01 0.0056
2021-09-01 0.0038
2021-10-01 0.0038
2021-11-01 0.0040
2021-12-01 0.0142
2022-01-01 0.0194
2022-02-01 0.0162
2022-03-01 0.0689
2022-04-01 0.0878
2022-05-01 0.2599
2022-06-01 1.2474
2022-07-01 1.9783
2022-08-01 1.9320
2022-09-01 3.4374
2022-10-01 8.1258
2022-11-01 17.6710
2022-12-01 9.5133
2023-01-01 9.5130
2023-02-01 3.8687
2023-03-01 26.2831
2023-04-01 12.2923
2023-05-01 17.5009
2023-06-01 5.8677
2023-07-01 3.1868
2023-08-01 1.6992
2023-09-01 1.1830
2023-10-01 3.6519
2023-11-01 5.3787
2023-12-01 2.8965
2024-01-01 1.5088
2024-02-01 2.6505
2024-03-01 0.8761
2024-04-01 1.6490
2024-05-01 1.4281
2024-06-01 1.7783
2024-07-01 2.8477
2024-08-01 2.6987
2024-09-01 2.2602
2024-10-01 2.5237
2024-11-01 1.6738
2024-12-01 1.0508
2025-01-01 0.5564
2025-02-01 0.6226
2025-03-01 1.4250
2025-04-01 5.1856
2025-05-01 2.4966
2025-06-01 1.2275
2025-07-01 1.5143
2025-08-01 1.4839
2025-09-01 1.2289
2025-10-01 1.1867
2025-11-01 1.7997
2025-12-01 1.9868
2026-01-01 0.2190
2026-02-01 0.2144
2026-03-01 0.2074
2026-04-01 0.1891
2026-05-01 0.0928
2026-06-01 0.1391
2026-07-01 0.0477
2026-08-01 0.0802
2026-09-01 0.0850

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