Table Data - Deflation Probability
| Title | Deflation Probability |
|---|---|
| Series ID | STLPPMDEF |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis |
| Release | St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures (Not a Press Release) |
| Seasonal Adjustment | Not Seasonally Adjusted |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Units | Probability |
| Date Range | 1990-01-01 to 2026-06-01 |
| Last Updated | 2026-06-26 12:07 PM CDT |
| Notes | This series measures the probability that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month changes) over the next 12 months will fall below zero. For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure. As of April 5, 2023, the MZM Money Stock measure, in SA billions of dollars, has been replaced with the series Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding (break-adjusted), in SA billions of dollars, from the Federal Reserve’s monthly G.19 release. This change was made because the MZM series was discontinued. As of February 3, 2020, the Emerging and Developing Asia and Western Hemisphere Consumer Prices Indexes have been replaced with Asia/Pacific Rim and Latin America Consumer Price Indexes respectively. These changes were made to facilitate a more timely updating of the PPM. Switching the Consumer Prices Indexes produced no meaningful change in the PPM series. As of January 29, 2021, the Adjusted Monetary Base (including Deposits to Satisfy Clearing Balance Contracts) Seasonally Adjusted, in billions of dollars has been replaced with the series, Monetary Base, NSA, in billions of dollars. As of June 26, 2026: - The KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index for All Commodities has been replaced with the S&P Goldman Sachs Spot Index. - The KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index for Metals has been replaced with the S&P Goldman Sachs Industrial Metals Index. - The KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index for Textiles and Fibers has been replaced with the FIBER Industrial Materials Index for Textiles. - The KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index for Raw Industrials has been replaced with the S&P Goldman Sachs Precious Metals Nearby Index. - The KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index for Foodstuffs has been replaced with the S&P Goldman Sachs Agricultural Commodities Nearby Index. - The KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index for Fats and Oils has been removed. - The KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index for Livestock and Products has been replaced with the S&P Goldman Sachs Livestock Nearby Index. These changes were made because the KR-CRB series was discontinued. |
| DATE | VALUE |
|---|---|
| 1990-01-01 | 0.08124343 |
| 1990-02-01 | 0.03507177 |
| 1990-03-01 | 0.08506680 |
| 1990-04-01 | 0.06374105 |
| 1990-05-01 | 0.13246265 |
| 1990-06-01 | 0.12128823 |
| 1990-07-01 | 0.08673759 |
| 1990-08-01 | 0.12744248 |
| 1990-09-01 | 0.22353467 |
| 1990-10-01 | 0.03875846 |
| 1990-11-01 | 0.07791625 |
| 1990-12-01 | 0.10098872 |
| 1991-01-01 | 0.06395469 |
| 1991-02-01 | 0.04570203 |
| 1991-03-01 | 0.04920625 |
| 1991-04-01 | 0.08924633 |
| 1991-05-01 | 0.09811686 |
| 1991-06-01 | 0.08822601 |
| 1991-07-01 | 0.07276715 |
| 1991-08-01 | 0.09460968 |
| 1991-09-01 | 0.12521161 |
| 1991-10-01 | 0.10037195 |
| 1991-11-01 | 0.10811708 |
| 1991-12-01 | 0.11499022 |
| 1992-01-01 | 0.15958935 |
| 1992-02-01 | 0.11827700 |
| 1992-03-01 | 0.12119608 |
| 1992-04-01 | 0.09100100 |
| 1992-05-01 | 0.09753656 |
| 1992-06-01 | 0.11065661 |
| 1992-07-01 | 0.10076663 |
| 1992-08-01 | 0.13448181 |
| 1992-09-01 | 0.13441719 |
| 1992-10-01 | 0.13110697 |
| 1992-11-01 | 0.10294385 |
| 1992-12-01 | 0.10178673 |
| 1993-01-01 | 0.08458469 |
| 1993-02-01 | 0.06717750 |
| 1993-03-01 | 0.09964839 |
| 1993-04-01 | 0.08457257 |
| 1993-05-01 | 0.08492165 |
| 1993-06-01 | 0.05242877 |
| 1993-07-01 | 0.07543981 |
| 1993-08-01 | 0.07090781 |
| 1993-09-01 | 0.08948498 |
| 1993-10-01 | 0.08833132 |
| 1993-11-01 | 0.09392757 |
| 1993-12-01 | 0.04887067 |
| 1994-01-01 | 0.05629295 |
| 1994-02-01 | 0.05618696 |
| 1994-03-01 | 0.02219164 |
| 1994-04-01 | 0.02366744 |
| 1994-05-01 | 0.02636888 |
| 1994-06-01 | 0.03151047 |
| 1994-07-01 | 0.04382681 |
| 1994-08-01 | 0.03072254 |
| 1994-09-01 | 0.01974430 |
| 1994-10-01 | 0.02786975 |
| 1994-11-01 | 0.03118501 |
| 1994-12-01 | 0.01491683 |
| 1995-01-01 | 0.00182823 |
| 1995-02-01 | 0.00062768 |
| 1995-03-01 | 0.00420335 |
| 1995-04-01 | 0.00116999 |
| 1995-05-01 | 0.00134058 |
| 1995-06-01 | 0.00258650 |
| 1995-07-01 | 0.00198053 |
| 1995-08-01 | 0.00274577 |
| 1995-09-01 | 0.00284465 |
| 1995-10-01 | 0.00930396 |
| 1995-11-01 | 0.00256326 |
| 1995-12-01 | 0.01013930 |
| 1996-01-01 | 0.00130975 |
| 1996-02-01 | 0.00023640 |
| 1996-03-01 | 0.00049093 |
| 1996-04-01 | 0.00009126 |
| 1996-05-01 | 0.00005558 |
| 1996-06-01 | 0.00003733 |
| 1996-07-01 | 0.00022991 |
| 1996-08-01 | 0.00002324 |
| 1996-09-01 | 0.00018766 |
| 1996-10-01 | 0.00005865 |
| 1996-11-01 | 0.00009776 |
| 1996-12-01 | 0.00007200 |
| 1997-01-01 | 0.00000055 |
| 1997-02-01 | 0.00000004 |
| 1997-03-01 | 0.00000020 |
| 1997-04-01 | 0.00000283 |
| 1997-05-01 | 0.00000644 |
| 1997-06-01 | 0.00004299 |
| 1997-07-01 | 0.00000231 |
| 1997-08-01 | 0.00001024 |
| 1997-09-01 | 0.00003474 |
| 1997-10-01 | 0.00001618 |
| 1997-11-01 | 0.00004308 |
| 1997-12-01 | 0.00017546 |
| 1998-01-01 | 0.00102244 |
| 1998-02-01 | 0.00220947 |
| 1998-03-01 | 0.01263157 |
| 1998-04-01 | 0.00800430 |
| 1998-05-01 | 0.00159835 |
| 1998-06-01 | 0.00366779 |
| 1998-07-01 | 0.03854167 |
| 1998-08-01 | 0.00246104 |
| 1998-09-01 | 0.00206597 |
| 1998-10-01 | 0.04413327 |
| 1998-11-01 | 0.01728333 |
| 1998-12-01 | 0.00710372 |
| 1999-01-01 | 0.04420696 |
| 1999-02-01 | 0.00304691 |
| 1999-03-01 | 0.01353341 |
| 1999-04-01 | 0.00242195 |
| 1999-05-01 | 0.00000483 |
| 1999-06-01 | 0.00066830 |
| 1999-07-01 | 0.00085106 |
| 1999-08-01 | 0.00005158 |
| 1999-09-01 | 0.00003285 |
| 1999-10-01 | 0.00000266 |
| 1999-11-01 | 0.00004336 |
| 1999-12-01 | 0.00001317 |
| 2000-01-01 | 0.00000517 |
| 2000-02-01 | 0.00000012 |
| 2000-03-01 | 0.00000023 |
| 2000-04-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2000-05-01 | 0.00000532 |
| 2000-06-01 | 0.00000001 |
| 2000-07-01 | 0.00000002 |
| 2000-08-01 | 0.00000013 |
| 2000-09-01 | 0.00000017 |
| 2000-10-01 | 0.00000001 |
| 2000-11-01 | 0.00000008 |
| 2000-12-01 | 0.00000004 |
| 2001-01-01 | 0.00000324 |
| 2001-02-01 | 0.00000023 |
| 2001-03-01 | 0.00000026 |
| 2001-04-01 | 0.00001163 |
| 2001-05-01 | 0.00000010 |
| 2001-06-01 | 0.00000001 |
| 2001-07-01 | 0.00000012 |
| 2001-08-01 | 0.00001602 |
| 2001-09-01 | 0.00000481 |
| 2001-10-01 | 0.00077192 |
| 2001-11-01 | 0.00359624 |
| 2001-12-01 | 0.00047345 |
| 2002-01-01 | 0.00304962 |
| 2002-02-01 | 0.00676870 |
| 2002-03-01 | 0.00316161 |
| 2002-04-01 | 0.00006551 |
| 2002-05-01 | 0.00009440 |
| 2002-06-01 | 0.00052053 |
| 2002-07-01 | 0.00071768 |
| 2002-08-01 | 0.00016250 |
| 2002-09-01 | 0.00066118 |
| 2002-10-01 | 0.00025740 |
| 2002-11-01 | 0.00006862 |
| 2002-12-01 | 0.00008185 |
| 2003-01-01 | 0.00043434 |
| 2003-02-01 | 0.00012920 |
| 2003-03-01 | 0.00049606 |
| 2003-04-01 | 0.00177938 |
| 2003-05-01 | 0.06410803 |
| 2003-06-01 | 0.01945472 |
| 2003-07-01 | 0.00490792 |
| 2003-08-01 | 0.00005370 |
| 2003-09-01 | 0.00004019 |
| 2003-10-01 | 0.00030075 |
| 2003-11-01 | 0.00025973 |
| 2003-12-01 | 0.00060168 |
| 2004-01-01 | 0.00002383 |
| 2004-02-01 | 0.00001202 |
| 2004-03-01 | 0.00002608 |
| 2004-04-01 | 0.00002338 |
| 2004-05-01 | 0.00000183 |
| 2004-06-01 | 0.00000164 |
| 2004-07-01 | 0.00000213 |
| 2004-08-01 | 0.00002560 |
| 2004-09-01 | 0.00005682 |
| 2004-10-01 | 0.00000840 |
| 2004-11-01 | 0.00000023 |
| 2004-12-01 | 0.00000016 |
| 2005-01-01 | 0.00000184 |
| 2005-02-01 | 0.00000114 |
| 2005-03-01 | 0.00000016 |
| 2005-04-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2005-05-01 | 0.00000031 |
| 2005-06-01 | 0.00001692 |
| 2005-07-01 | 0.00001922 |
| 2005-08-01 | 0.00000004 |
| 2005-09-01 | 0.00000013 |
| 2005-10-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2005-11-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2005-12-01 | 0.00003397 |
| 2006-01-01 | 0.00000271 |
| 2006-02-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2006-03-01 | 0.00000014 |
| 2006-04-01 | 0.00000184 |
| 2006-05-01 | 0.00000006 |
| 2006-06-01 | 0.00000001 |
| 2006-07-01 | 0.00000180 |
| 2006-08-01 | 0.00000136 |
| 2006-09-01 | 0.00000205 |
| 2006-10-01 | 0.00270565 |
| 2006-11-01 | 0.00280935 |
| 2006-12-01 | 0.00008401 |
| 2007-01-01 | 0.00010461 |
| 2007-02-01 | 0.00009221 |
| 2007-03-01 | 0.00000024 |
| 2007-04-01 | 0.00000056 |
| 2007-05-01 | 0.00001211 |
| 2007-06-01 | 0.00013895 |
| 2007-07-01 | 0.00021940 |
| 2007-08-01 | 0.00054663 |
| 2007-09-01 | 0.01173788 |
| 2007-10-01 | 0.00017653 |
| 2007-11-01 | 0.00004365 |
| 2007-12-01 | 0.00000565 |
| 2008-01-01 | 0.00014504 |
| 2008-02-01 | 0.00026278 |
| 2008-03-01 | 0.00006800 |
| 2008-04-01 | 0.00043605 |
| 2008-05-01 | 0.00009230 |
| 2008-06-01 | 0.00045079 |
| 2008-07-01 | 0.00007296 |
| 2008-08-01 | 0.00007751 |
| 2008-09-01 | 0.00100600 |
| 2008-10-01 | 0.00143910 |
| 2008-11-01 | 0.33034418 |
| 2008-12-01 | 0.51440340 |
| 2009-01-01 | 0.88957355 |
| 2009-02-01 | 0.25577480 |
| 2009-03-01 | 0.41433570 |
| 2009-04-01 | 0.74651801 |
| 2009-05-01 | 0.33856283 |
| 2009-06-01 | 0.42774889 |
| 2009-07-01 | 0.48795694 |
| 2009-08-01 | 0.71946832 |
| 2009-09-01 | 0.46052713 |
| 2009-10-01 | 0.57060378 |
| 2009-11-01 | 0.14836449 |
| 2009-12-01 | 0.00006718 |
| 2010-01-01 | 0.01162395 |
| 2010-02-01 | 0.01441466 |
| 2010-03-01 | 0.04064498 |
| 2010-04-01 | 0.00306491 |
| 2010-05-01 | 0.00220650 |
| 2010-06-01 | 0.02050141 |
| 2010-07-01 | 0.08775397 |
| 2010-08-01 | 0.03607435 |
| 2010-09-01 | 0.02333520 |
| 2010-10-01 | 0.04578870 |
| 2010-11-01 | 0.01833601 |
| 2010-12-01 | 0.05317480 |
| 2011-01-01 | 0.01786932 |
| 2011-02-01 | 0.01365632 |
| 2011-03-01 | 0.01141326 |
| 2011-04-01 | 0.02679843 |
| 2011-05-01 | 0.00286491 |
| 2011-06-01 | 0.01149728 |
| 2011-07-01 | 0.00378418 |
| 2011-08-01 | 0.00376005 |
| 2011-09-01 | 0.00754814 |
| 2011-10-01 | 0.01773537 |
| 2011-11-01 | 0.02728695 |
| 2011-12-01 | 0.02042721 |
| 2012-01-01 | 0.01713906 |
| 2012-02-01 | 0.00425326 |
| 2012-03-01 | 0.00185339 |
| 2012-04-01 | 0.00211952 |
| 2012-05-01 | 0.00474464 |
| 2012-06-01 | 0.01176716 |
| 2012-07-01 | 0.01576151 |
| 2012-08-01 | 0.00371303 |
| 2012-09-01 | 0.00108501 |
| 2012-10-01 | 0.00361781 |
| 2012-11-01 | 0.00991900 |
| 2012-12-01 | 0.00990629 |
| 2013-01-01 | 0.00323417 |
| 2013-02-01 | 0.00227421 |
| 2013-03-01 | 0.00190889 |
| 2013-04-01 | 0.00175862 |
| 2013-05-01 | 0.00788951 |
| 2013-06-01 | 0.00332059 |
| 2013-07-01 | 0.00363989 |
| 2013-08-01 | 0.00324313 |
| 2013-09-01 | 0.00316052 |
| 2013-10-01 | 0.00676725 |
| 2013-11-01 | 0.01290138 |
| 2013-12-01 | 0.00679117 |
| 2014-01-01 | 0.00531255 |
| 2014-02-01 | 0.00873228 |
| 2014-03-01 | 0.00756104 |
| 2014-04-01 | 0.00230088 |
| 2014-05-01 | 0.00209458 |
| 2014-06-01 | 0.00387183 |
| 2014-07-01 | 0.01083553 |
| 2014-08-01 | 0.00727779 |
| 2014-09-01 | 0.01330806 |
| 2014-10-01 | 0.01212399 |
| 2014-11-01 | 0.02739405 |
| 2014-12-01 | 0.03347469 |
| 2015-01-01 | 0.06796147 |
| 2015-02-01 | 0.49527148 |
| 2015-03-01 | 0.10284228 |
| 2015-04-01 | 0.04399090 |
| 2015-05-01 | 0.06648239 |
| 2015-06-01 | 0.03526332 |
| 2015-07-01 | 0.03255572 |
| 2015-08-01 | 0.08719534 |
| 2015-09-01 | 0.12880022 |
| 2015-10-01 | 0.16455627 |
| 2015-11-01 | 0.15574060 |
| 2015-12-01 | 0.23122272 |
| 2016-01-01 | 0.10213586 |
| 2016-02-01 | 0.01982891 |
| 2016-03-01 | 0.01241864 |
| 2016-04-01 | 0.00273837 |
| 2016-05-01 | 0.00121104 |
| 2016-06-01 | 0.00033149 |
| 2016-07-01 | 0.00097140 |
| 2016-08-01 | 0.00259572 |
| 2016-09-01 | 0.00117820 |
| 2016-10-01 | 0.00201212 |
| 2016-11-01 | 0.00089734 |
| 2016-12-01 | 0.00038916 |
| 2017-01-01 | 0.00120116 |
| 2017-02-01 | 0.00255991 |
| 2017-03-01 | 0.00245905 |
| 2017-04-01 | 0.00482727 |
| 2017-05-01 | 0.01009093 |
| 2017-06-01 | 0.00356275 |
| 2017-07-01 | 0.00510834 |
| 2017-08-01 | 0.00472519 |
| 2017-09-01 | 0.00608153 |
| 2017-10-01 | 0.00451436 |
| 2017-11-01 | 0.01064027 |
| 2017-12-01 | 0.00469033 |
| 2018-01-01 | 0.00234891 |
| 2018-02-01 | 0.00110557 |
| 2018-03-01 | 0.00268355 |
| 2018-04-01 | 0.00316639 |
| 2018-05-01 | 0.00183985 |
| 2018-06-01 | 0.00139118 |
| 2018-07-01 | 0.00285305 |
| 2018-08-01 | 0.00602820 |
| 2018-09-01 | 0.01454217 |
| 2018-10-01 | 0.00445780 |
| 2018-11-01 | 0.00403632 |
| 2018-12-01 | 0.00418153 |
| 2019-01-01 | 0.00638944 |
| 2019-02-01 | 0.00392411 |
| 2019-03-01 | 0.00313191 |
| 2019-04-01 | 0.00155918 |
| 2019-05-01 | 0.00214367 |
| 2019-06-01 | 0.00632849 |
| 2019-07-01 | 0.00621803 |
| 2019-08-01 | 0.00988937 |
| 2019-09-01 | 0.00870752 |
| 2019-10-01 | 0.00822112 |
| 2019-11-01 | 0.00279627 |
| 2019-12-01 | 0.00352129 |
| 2020-01-01 | 0.00166364 |
| 2020-02-01 | 0.00058860 |
| 2020-03-01 | 0.00220056 |
| 2020-04-01 | 0.10668638 |
| 2020-05-01 | 0.85020305 |
| 2020-06-01 | 0.00892741 |
| 2020-07-01 | 0.00415717 |
| 2020-08-01 | 0.00138669 |
| 2020-09-01 | 0.00022754 |
| 2020-10-01 | 0.00041920 |
| 2020-11-01 | 0.00199377 |
| 2020-12-01 | 0.00076999 |
| 2021-01-01 | 0.00083447 |
| 2021-02-01 | 0.00090311 |
| 2021-03-01 | 0.00033070 |
| 2021-04-01 | 0.00005715 |
| 2021-05-01 | 0.00016099 |
| 2021-06-01 | 0.00004132 |
| 2021-07-01 | 0.00002005 |
| 2021-08-01 | 0.00006911 |
| 2021-09-01 | 0.00003858 |
| 2021-10-01 | 0.00009687 |
| 2021-11-01 | 0.00002318 |
| 2021-12-01 | 0.00001021 |
| 2022-01-01 | 0.00001177 |
| 2022-02-01 | 0.00004565 |
| 2022-03-01 | 0.00000186 |
| 2022-04-01 | 0.00000055 |
| 2022-05-01 | 0.00001003 |
| 2022-06-01 | 0.00001955 |
| 2022-07-01 | 0.00006328 |
| 2022-08-01 | 0.00010670 |
| 2022-09-01 | 0.00005543 |
| 2022-10-01 | 0.00061948 |
| 2022-11-01 | 0.00059713 |
| 2022-12-01 | 0.00004668 |
| 2023-01-01 | 0.00006299 |
| 2023-02-01 | 0.00010297 |
| 2023-03-01 | 0.00003400 |
| 2023-04-01 | 0.00003271 |
| 2023-05-01 | 0.00000899 |
| 2023-06-01 | 0.00006250 |
| 2023-07-01 | 0.00016045 |
| 2023-08-01 | 0.00001619 |
| 2023-09-01 | 0.00015429 |
| 2023-10-01 | 0.00002792 |
| 2023-11-01 | 0.00023273 |
| 2023-12-01 | 0.00194869 |
| 2024-01-01 | 0.00247482 |
| 2024-02-01 | 0.00091999 |
| 2024-03-01 | 0.00044912 |
| 2024-04-01 | 0.00007002 |
| 2024-05-01 | 0.00022592 |
| 2024-06-01 | 0.00037357 |
| 2024-07-01 | 0.00156131 |
| 2024-08-01 | 0.00127785 |
| 2024-09-01 | 0.00163716 |
| 2024-10-01 | 0.00141920 |
| 2024-11-01 | 0.00106685 |
| 2024-12-01 | 0.00114610 |
| 2025-01-01 | 0.00069323 |
| 2025-02-01 | 0.00072309 |
| 2025-03-01 | 0.00011653 |
| 2025-04-01 | 0.00127252 |
| 2025-05-01 | 0.00202702 |
| 2025-06-01 | 0.00119749 |
| 2025-07-01 | 0.00037995 |
| 2025-08-01 | 0.00221640 |
| 2025-09-01 | 0.00083559 |
| 2025-10-01 | 0.00206582 |
| 2025-11-01 | 0.00289276 |
| 2025-12-01 | 0.00214088 |
| 2026-01-01 | 0.00144934 |
| 2026-02-01 | 0.00020089 |
| 2026-03-01 | 0.00020099 |
| 2026-04-01 | 0.00006647 |
| 2026-05-01 | 0.00004380 |
| 2026-06-01 | 0.00000000 |