Table Data - Deflation Probability
| Title | Deflation Probability |
|---|---|
| Series ID | STLPPMDEF |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis |
| Release | St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures (Not a Press Release) |
| Seasonal Adjustment | Not Seasonally Adjusted |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Units | Probability |
| Date Range | 1990-01-01 to 2025-06-01 |
| Last Updated | 2025-06-27 10:28 AM CDT |
| Notes | This series measures the probability that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month changes) over the next 12 months will fall below zero. For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure. As of April 5, 2023, the MZM Money Stock measure, in SA billions of dollars, has been replaced with the series Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding (break-adjusted), in SA billions of dollars, from the Federal Reserve’s monthly G.19 release. This change was made because the MZM series was discontinued. As of February 3, 2020, the Emerging and Developing Asia and Western Hemisphere Consumer Prices Indexes have been replaced with Asia/Pacific Rim and Latin America Consumer Price Indexes respectively. These changes were made to facilitate a more timely updating of the PPM. Switching the Consumer Prices Indexes produced no meaningful change in the PPM series. As of January 29, 2021, the Adjusted Monetary Base (including Deposits to Satisfy Clearing Balance Contracts) Seasonally Adjusted, in billions of dollars has been replaced with the series, Monetary Base, NSA, in billions of dollars. |
| DATE | VALUE |
|---|---|
| 1990-01-01 | 0.11245963 |
| 1990-02-01 | 0.04094960 |
| 1990-03-01 | 0.08619351 |
| 1990-04-01 | 0.06604075 |
| 1990-05-01 | 0.11012265 |
| 1990-06-01 | 0.09573617 |
| 1990-07-01 | 0.11216640 |
| 1990-08-01 | 0.11049125 |
| 1990-09-01 | 0.14514846 |
| 1990-10-01 | 0.07323887 |
| 1990-11-01 | 0.10956445 |
| 1990-12-01 | 0.12586067 |
| 1991-01-01 | 0.07067359 |
| 1991-02-01 | 0.05198680 |
| 1991-03-01 | 0.05721207 |
| 1991-04-01 | 0.09555010 |
| 1991-05-01 | 0.09922651 |
| 1991-06-01 | 0.09243144 |
| 1991-07-01 | 0.07785965 |
| 1991-08-01 | 0.10033864 |
| 1991-09-01 | 0.12487176 |
| 1991-10-01 | 0.11268647 |
| 1991-11-01 | 0.12000490 |
| 1991-12-01 | 0.13071443 |
| 1992-01-01 | 0.16580120 |
| 1992-02-01 | 0.12188970 |
| 1992-03-01 | 0.12524319 |
| 1992-04-01 | 0.09083797 |
| 1992-05-01 | 0.09755139 |
| 1992-06-01 | 0.11019665 |
| 1992-07-01 | 0.10102845 |
| 1992-08-01 | 0.13910541 |
| 1992-09-01 | 0.13570164 |
| 1992-10-01 | 0.13109711 |
| 1992-11-01 | 0.10445858 |
| 1992-12-01 | 0.10051324 |
| 1993-01-01 | 0.08750698 |
| 1993-02-01 | 0.07023093 |
| 1993-03-01 | 0.10220153 |
| 1993-04-01 | 0.08484912 |
| 1993-05-01 | 0.08524438 |
| 1993-06-01 | 0.05290033 |
| 1993-07-01 | 0.07807598 |
| 1993-08-01 | 0.07122528 |
| 1993-09-01 | 0.09066559 |
| 1993-10-01 | 0.08831004 |
| 1993-11-01 | 0.09406420 |
| 1993-12-01 | 0.05088162 |
| 1994-01-01 | 0.06123628 |
| 1994-02-01 | 0.05859773 |
| 1994-03-01 | 0.02463543 |
| 1994-04-01 | 0.02594882 |
| 1994-05-01 | 0.02831233 |
| 1994-06-01 | 0.03293009 |
| 1994-07-01 | 0.04461013 |
| 1994-08-01 | 0.03289329 |
| 1994-09-01 | 0.02006139 |
| 1994-10-01 | 0.02919343 |
| 1994-11-01 | 0.03316254 |
| 1994-12-01 | 0.01645419 |
| 1995-01-01 | 0.00178012 |
| 1995-02-01 | 0.00066533 |
| 1995-03-01 | 0.00443548 |
| 1995-04-01 | 0.00120253 |
| 1995-05-01 | 0.00131904 |
| 1995-06-01 | 0.00154123 |
| 1995-07-01 | 0.00183250 |
| 1995-08-01 | 0.00228862 |
| 1995-09-01 | 0.00249541 |
| 1995-10-01 | 0.00901337 |
| 1995-11-01 | 0.00232429 |
| 1995-12-01 | 0.00889904 |
| 1996-01-01 | 0.00158694 |
| 1996-02-01 | 0.00029179 |
| 1996-03-01 | 0.00059798 |
| 1996-04-01 | 0.00010779 |
| 1996-05-01 | 0.00005192 |
| 1996-06-01 | 0.00003460 |
| 1996-07-01 | 0.00018189 |
| 1996-08-01 | 0.00002185 |
| 1996-09-01 | 0.00017076 |
| 1996-10-01 | 0.00006265 |
| 1996-11-01 | 0.00014836 |
| 1996-12-01 | 0.00014535 |
| 1997-01-01 | 0.00000038 |
| 1997-02-01 | 0.00000003 |
| 1997-03-01 | 0.00000019 |
| 1997-04-01 | 0.00000299 |
| 1997-05-01 | 0.00000685 |
| 1997-06-01 | 0.00003650 |
| 1997-07-01 | 0.00000176 |
| 1997-08-01 | 0.00000999 |
| 1997-09-01 | 0.00003019 |
| 1997-10-01 | 0.00001430 |
| 1997-11-01 | 0.00003502 |
| 1997-12-01 | 0.00018811 |
| 1998-01-01 | 0.00088286 |
| 1998-02-01 | 0.00215584 |
| 1998-03-01 | 0.01215276 |
| 1998-04-01 | 0.00744401 |
| 1998-05-01 | 0.00169493 |
| 1998-06-01 | 0.00335763 |
| 1998-07-01 | 0.03747304 |
| 1998-08-01 | 0.00218426 |
| 1998-09-01 | 0.00190398 |
| 1998-10-01 | 0.04387833 |
| 1998-11-01 | 0.01754911 |
| 1998-12-01 | 0.00705245 |
| 1999-01-01 | 0.04823128 |
| 1999-02-01 | 0.00285258 |
| 1999-03-01 | 0.01885324 |
| 1999-04-01 | 0.00353257 |
| 1999-05-01 | 0.00000476 |
| 1999-06-01 | 0.00067660 |
| 1999-07-01 | 0.00074869 |
| 1999-08-01 | 0.00006397 |
| 1999-09-01 | 0.00002747 |
| 1999-10-01 | 0.00000180 |
| 1999-11-01 | 0.00004210 |
| 1999-12-01 | 0.00001934 |
| 2000-01-01 | 0.00000653 |
| 2000-02-01 | 0.00000017 |
| 2000-03-01 | 0.00000038 |
| 2000-04-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2000-05-01 | 0.00000349 |
| 2000-06-01 | 0.00000001 |
| 2000-07-01 | 0.00000002 |
| 2000-08-01 | 0.00000014 |
| 2000-09-01 | 0.00000014 |
| 2000-10-01 | 0.00000001 |
| 2000-11-01 | 0.00000006 |
| 2000-12-01 | 0.00000002 |
| 2001-01-01 | 0.00000290 |
| 2001-02-01 | 0.00000014 |
| 2001-03-01 | 0.00000031 |
| 2001-04-01 | 0.00001158 |
| 2001-05-01 | 0.00000011 |
| 2001-06-01 | 0.00000001 |
| 2001-07-01 | 0.00000011 |
| 2001-08-01 | 0.00000492 |
| 2001-09-01 | 0.00000366 |
| 2001-10-01 | 0.00109932 |
| 2001-11-01 | 0.00248812 |
| 2001-12-01 | 0.00043811 |
| 2002-01-01 | 0.00302910 |
| 2002-02-01 | 0.00636794 |
| 2002-03-01 | 0.00365791 |
| 2002-04-01 | 0.00007481 |
| 2002-05-01 | 0.00011953 |
| 2002-06-01 | 0.00055947 |
| 2002-07-01 | 0.00092184 |
| 2002-08-01 | 0.00022434 |
| 2002-09-01 | 0.00077664 |
| 2002-10-01 | 0.00044916 |
| 2002-11-01 | 0.00007700 |
| 2002-12-01 | 0.00006977 |
| 2003-01-01 | 0.00067497 |
| 2003-02-01 | 0.00033524 |
| 2003-03-01 | 0.00063272 |
| 2003-04-01 | 0.00138443 |
| 2003-05-01 | 0.07026167 |
| 2003-06-01 | 0.02425508 |
| 2003-07-01 | 0.00536641 |
| 2003-08-01 | 0.00005457 |
| 2003-09-01 | 0.00004546 |
| 2003-10-01 | 0.00054935 |
| 2003-11-01 | 0.00046815 |
| 2003-12-01 | 0.00059129 |
| 2004-01-01 | 0.00002561 |
| 2004-02-01 | 0.00001586 |
| 2004-03-01 | 0.00002975 |
| 2004-04-01 | 0.00004043 |
| 2004-05-01 | 0.00000123 |
| 2004-06-01 | 0.00000137 |
| 2004-07-01 | 0.00000140 |
| 2004-08-01 | 0.00002753 |
| 2004-09-01 | 0.00004990 |
| 2004-10-01 | 0.00001375 |
| 2004-11-01 | 0.00000060 |
| 2004-12-01 | 0.00000027 |
| 2005-01-01 | 0.00000127 |
| 2005-02-01 | 0.00000116 |
| 2005-03-01 | 0.00000030 |
| 2005-04-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2005-05-01 | 0.00000045 |
| 2005-06-01 | 0.00001179 |
| 2005-07-01 | 0.00002209 |
| 2005-08-01 | 0.00000007 |
| 2005-09-01 | 0.00000014 |
| 2005-10-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2005-11-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2005-12-01 | 0.00000962 |
| 2006-01-01 | 0.00000771 |
| 2006-02-01 | 0.00000002 |
| 2006-03-01 | 0.00000030 |
| 2006-04-01 | 0.00000258 |
| 2006-05-01 | 0.00000017 |
| 2006-06-01 | 0.00000003 |
| 2006-07-01 | 0.00000231 |
| 2006-08-01 | 0.00000201 |
| 2006-09-01 | 0.00000263 |
| 2006-10-01 | 0.00256050 |
| 2006-11-01 | 0.00234469 |
| 2006-12-01 | 0.00014741 |
| 2007-01-01 | 0.00013182 |
| 2007-02-01 | 0.00006738 |
| 2007-03-01 | 0.00000057 |
| 2007-04-01 | 0.00000262 |
| 2007-05-01 | 0.00003613 |
| 2007-06-01 | 0.00023668 |
| 2007-07-01 | 0.00032483 |
| 2007-08-01 | 0.00094123 |
| 2007-09-01 | 0.00949186 |
| 2007-10-01 | 0.00029048 |
| 2007-11-01 | 0.00009345 |
| 2007-12-01 | 0.00001672 |
| 2008-01-01 | 0.00020023 |
| 2008-02-01 | 0.00046931 |
| 2008-03-01 | 0.00015424 |
| 2008-04-01 | 0.00070807 |
| 2008-05-01 | 0.00015922 |
| 2008-06-01 | 0.00047406 |
| 2008-07-01 | 0.00004838 |
| 2008-08-01 | 0.00006693 |
| 2008-09-01 | 0.00052255 |
| 2008-10-01 | 0.00094973 |
| 2008-11-01 | 0.29798146 |
| 2008-12-01 | 0.55872408 |
| 2009-01-01 | 0.89194340 |
| 2009-02-01 | 0.25371326 |
| 2009-03-01 | 0.39588717 |
| 2009-04-01 | 0.76741834 |
| 2009-05-01 | 0.36964224 |
| 2009-06-01 | 0.43977501 |
| 2009-07-01 | 0.51929114 |
| 2009-08-01 | 0.74399077 |
| 2009-09-01 | 0.47551028 |
| 2009-10-01 | 0.57076764 |
| 2009-11-01 | 0.15943014 |
| 2009-12-01 | 0.00012627 |
| 2010-01-01 | 0.01494736 |
| 2010-02-01 | 0.01582572 |
| 2010-03-01 | 0.03516603 |
| 2010-04-01 | 0.00398014 |
| 2010-05-01 | 0.00236317 |
| 2010-06-01 | 0.01758880 |
| 2010-07-01 | 0.08216445 |
| 2010-08-01 | 0.04104604 |
| 2010-09-01 | 0.02915536 |
| 2010-10-01 | 0.05419399 |
| 2010-11-01 | 0.02081919 |
| 2010-12-01 | 0.05418569 |
| 2011-01-01 | 0.02111989 |
| 2011-02-01 | 0.01620701 |
| 2011-03-01 | 0.01531503 |
| 2011-04-01 | 0.02985945 |
| 2011-05-01 | 0.00328133 |
| 2011-06-01 | 0.00908276 |
| 2011-07-01 | 0.00324634 |
| 2011-08-01 | 0.00387379 |
| 2011-09-01 | 0.00667443 |
| 2011-10-01 | 0.01549548 |
| 2011-11-01 | 0.02205118 |
| 2011-12-01 | 0.01918784 |
| 2012-01-01 | 0.01440235 |
| 2012-02-01 | 0.00478421 |
| 2012-03-01 | 0.00243622 |
| 2012-04-01 | 0.00191479 |
| 2012-05-01 | 0.00440308 |
| 2012-06-01 | 0.01138212 |
| 2012-07-01 | 0.01419436 |
| 2012-08-01 | 0.00390655 |
| 2012-09-01 | 0.00115677 |
| 2012-10-01 | 0.00351247 |
| 2012-11-01 | 0.00986233 |
| 2012-12-01 | 0.00895564 |
| 2013-01-01 | 0.00376506 |
| 2013-02-01 | 0.00208377 |
| 2013-03-01 | 0.00209593 |
| 2013-04-01 | 0.00162163 |
| 2013-05-01 | 0.00688005 |
| 2013-06-01 | 0.00313160 |
| 2013-07-01 | 0.00294387 |
| 2013-08-01 | 0.00281476 |
| 2013-09-01 | 0.00330708 |
| 2013-10-01 | 0.00642622 |
| 2013-11-01 | 0.01303758 |
| 2013-12-01 | 0.00615757 |
| 2014-01-01 | 0.00576658 |
| 2014-02-01 | 0.00967341 |
| 2014-03-01 | 0.00870834 |
| 2014-04-01 | 0.00231108 |
| 2014-05-01 | 0.00207037 |
| 2014-06-01 | 0.00390079 |
| 2014-07-01 | 0.01065062 |
| 2014-08-01 | 0.00661324 |
| 2014-09-01 | 0.01242258 |
| 2014-10-01 | 0.01044325 |
| 2014-11-01 | 0.02555367 |
| 2014-12-01 | 0.03099529 |
| 2015-01-01 | 0.05551395 |
| 2015-02-01 | 0.46075787 |
| 2015-03-01 | 0.09282061 |
| 2015-04-01 | 0.04309906 |
| 2015-05-01 | 0.06922935 |
| 2015-06-01 | 0.03484182 |
| 2015-07-01 | 0.02644803 |
| 2015-08-01 | 0.07330854 |
| 2015-09-01 | 0.10460845 |
| 2015-10-01 | 0.14687333 |
| 2015-11-01 | 0.15321855 |
| 2015-12-01 | 0.16731898 |
| 2016-01-01 | 0.08584611 |
| 2016-02-01 | 0.02663437 |
| 2016-03-01 | 0.01385022 |
| 2016-04-01 | 0.00692307 |
| 2016-05-01 | 0.00173097 |
| 2016-06-01 | 0.00046309 |
| 2016-07-01 | 0.00119498 |
| 2016-08-01 | 0.00287272 |
| 2016-09-01 | 0.00115402 |
| 2016-10-01 | 0.00180949 |
| 2016-11-01 | 0.00094858 |
| 2016-12-01 | 0.00038449 |
| 2017-01-01 | 0.00152996 |
| 2017-02-01 | 0.00343174 |
| 2017-03-01 | 0.00293572 |
| 2017-04-01 | 0.00549731 |
| 2017-05-01 | 0.00945294 |
| 2017-06-01 | 0.00373193 |
| 2017-07-01 | 0.00483301 |
| 2017-08-01 | 0.00470225 |
| 2017-09-01 | 0.00691131 |
| 2017-10-01 | 0.00501340 |
| 2017-11-01 | 0.01018049 |
| 2017-12-01 | 0.00564535 |
| 2018-01-01 | 0.00247746 |
| 2018-02-01 | 0.00156330 |
| 2018-03-01 | 0.00265854 |
| 2018-04-01 | 0.00329716 |
| 2018-05-01 | 0.00212847 |
| 2018-06-01 | 0.00162137 |
| 2018-07-01 | 0.00307966 |
| 2018-08-01 | 0.00484973 |
| 2018-09-01 | 0.01101160 |
| 2018-10-01 | 0.00441063 |
| 2018-11-01 | 0.00432336 |
| 2018-12-01 | 0.00372356 |
| 2019-01-01 | 0.00622057 |
| 2019-02-01 | 0.00416930 |
| 2019-03-01 | 0.00356865 |
| 2019-04-01 | 0.00224711 |
| 2019-05-01 | 0.00256811 |
| 2019-06-01 | 0.00540070 |
| 2019-07-01 | 0.00537796 |
| 2019-08-01 | 0.00901588 |
| 2019-09-01 | 0.00779216 |
| 2019-10-01 | 0.00839682 |
| 2019-11-01 | 0.00318192 |
| 2019-12-01 | 0.00399415 |
| 2020-01-01 | 0.00183977 |
| 2020-02-01 | 0.00079975 |
| 2020-03-01 | 0.00212896 |
| 2020-04-01 | 0.11021352 |
| 2020-05-01 | 0.85239184 |
| 2020-06-01 | 0.01120840 |
| 2020-07-01 | 0.00574664 |
| 2020-08-01 | 0.00166753 |
| 2020-09-01 | 0.00031755 |
| 2020-10-01 | 0.00051383 |
| 2020-11-01 | 0.00237581 |
| 2020-12-01 | 0.00103699 |
| 2021-01-01 | 0.00114920 |
| 2021-02-01 | 0.00129592 |
| 2021-03-01 | 0.00048742 |
| 2021-04-01 | 0.00005227 |
| 2021-05-01 | 0.00011818 |
| 2021-06-01 | 0.00004835 |
| 2021-07-01 | 0.00003252 |
| 2021-08-01 | 0.00007305 |
| 2021-09-01 | 0.00003057 |
| 2021-10-01 | 0.00009406 |
| 2021-11-01 | 0.00003114 |
| 2021-12-01 | 0.00000938 |
| 2022-01-01 | 0.00001042 |
| 2022-02-01 | 0.00003534 |
| 2022-03-01 | 0.00000209 |
| 2022-04-01 | 0.00000084 |
| 2022-05-01 | 0.00000930 |
| 2022-06-01 | 0.00001330 |
| 2022-07-01 | 0.00004869 |
| 2022-08-01 | 0.00006225 |
| 2022-09-01 | 0.00004172 |
| 2022-10-01 | 0.00032915 |
| 2022-11-01 | 0.00044554 |
| 2022-12-01 | 0.00004228 |
| 2023-01-01 | 0.00008784 |
| 2023-02-01 | 0.00014423 |
| 2023-03-01 | 0.00003515 |
| 2023-04-01 | 0.00003815 |
| 2023-05-01 | 0.00001722 |
| 2023-06-01 | 0.00006818 |
| 2023-07-01 | 0.00017558 |
| 2023-08-01 | 0.00002131 |
| 2023-09-01 | 0.00014202 |
| 2023-10-01 | 0.00002755 |
| 2023-11-01 | 0.00027081 |
| 2023-12-01 | 0.00167941 |
| 2024-01-01 | 0.00369579 |
| 2024-02-01 | 0.00243976 |
| 2024-03-01 | 0.00020815 |
| 2024-04-01 | 0.00015458 |
| 2024-05-01 | 0.00039420 |
| 2024-06-01 | 0.00053807 |
| 2024-07-01 | 0.00185181 |
| 2024-08-01 | 0.00102264 |
| 2024-09-01 | 0.00186213 |
| 2024-10-01 | 0.00201258 |
| 2024-11-01 | 0.00169400 |
| 2024-12-01 | 0.00210272 |
| 2025-01-01 | 0.00103313 |
| 2025-02-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2025-03-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2025-04-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2025-05-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2025-06-01 | 0.00000000 |