Table Data - Deflation Probability
| Title | Deflation Probability |
|---|---|
| Series ID | STLPPMDEF |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis |
| Release | St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures (Not a Press Release) |
| Seasonal Adjustment | Not Seasonally Adjusted |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Units | Probability |
| Date Range | 1990-01-01 to 2026-03-01 |
| Last Updated | 2026-04-09 12:39 PM CDT |
| Notes | This series measures the probability that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month changes) over the next 12 months will fall below zero. For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure. As of April 5, 2023, the MZM Money Stock measure, in SA billions of dollars, has been replaced with the series Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding (break-adjusted), in SA billions of dollars, from the Federal Reserve’s monthly G.19 release. This change was made because the MZM series was discontinued. As of February 3, 2020, the Emerging and Developing Asia and Western Hemisphere Consumer Prices Indexes have been replaced with Asia/Pacific Rim and Latin America Consumer Price Indexes respectively. These changes were made to facilitate a more timely updating of the PPM. Switching the Consumer Prices Indexes produced no meaningful change in the PPM series. As of January 29, 2021, the Adjusted Monetary Base (including Deposits to Satisfy Clearing Balance Contracts) Seasonally Adjusted, in billions of dollars has been replaced with the series, Monetary Base, NSA, in billions of dollars. |
| DATE | VALUE |
|---|---|
| 1990-01-01 | 0.07685043 |
| 1990-02-01 | 0.03366975 |
| 1990-03-01 | 0.07952298 |
| 1990-04-01 | 0.06015278 |
| 1990-05-01 | 0.12700201 |
| 1990-06-01 | 0.11676537 |
| 1990-07-01 | 0.08211811 |
| 1990-08-01 | 0.12431632 |
| 1990-09-01 | 0.21021722 |
| 1990-10-01 | 0.03330687 |
| 1990-11-01 | 0.06728708 |
| 1990-12-01 | 0.09397492 |
| 1991-01-01 | 0.06087128 |
| 1991-02-01 | 0.04410193 |
| 1991-03-01 | 0.04918776 |
| 1991-04-01 | 0.08405503 |
| 1991-05-01 | 0.09639769 |
| 1991-06-01 | 0.08794669 |
| 1991-07-01 | 0.07214621 |
| 1991-08-01 | 0.09409575 |
| 1991-09-01 | 0.12201722 |
| 1991-10-01 | 0.09932033 |
| 1991-11-01 | 0.10690924 |
| 1991-12-01 | 0.11613090 |
| 1992-01-01 | 0.16092500 |
| 1992-02-01 | 0.11851487 |
| 1992-03-01 | 0.12162029 |
| 1992-04-01 | 0.08915996 |
| 1992-05-01 | 0.09516260 |
| 1992-06-01 | 0.10858986 |
| 1992-07-01 | 0.09782781 |
| 1992-08-01 | 0.13439740 |
| 1992-09-01 | 0.13213875 |
| 1992-10-01 | 0.12745643 |
| 1992-11-01 | 0.10236654 |
| 1992-12-01 | 0.09902330 |
| 1993-01-01 | 0.09262840 |
| 1993-02-01 | 0.07449464 |
| 1993-03-01 | 0.10834718 |
| 1993-04-01 | 0.09074813 |
| 1993-05-01 | 0.08958825 |
| 1993-06-01 | 0.05817767 |
| 1993-07-01 | 0.08292318 |
| 1993-08-01 | 0.07773925 |
| 1993-09-01 | 0.09584886 |
| 1993-10-01 | 0.09554581 |
| 1993-11-01 | 0.09478660 |
| 1993-12-01 | 0.05487778 |
| 1994-01-01 | 0.06009352 |
| 1994-02-01 | 0.05941322 |
| 1994-03-01 | 0.02386880 |
| 1994-04-01 | 0.02457865 |
| 1994-05-01 | 0.02760380 |
| 1994-06-01 | 0.03247037 |
| 1994-07-01 | 0.04338222 |
| 1994-08-01 | 0.03187195 |
| 1994-09-01 | 0.01962389 |
| 1994-10-01 | 0.02813205 |
| 1994-11-01 | 0.03218338 |
| 1994-12-01 | 0.01570190 |
| 1995-01-01 | 0.00174095 |
| 1995-02-01 | 0.00062610 |
| 1995-03-01 | 0.00458368 |
| 1995-04-01 | 0.00127260 |
| 1995-05-01 | 0.00134947 |
| 1995-06-01 | 0.00153634 |
| 1995-07-01 | 0.00178843 |
| 1995-08-01 | 0.00226586 |
| 1995-09-01 | 0.00258148 |
| 1995-10-01 | 0.00894333 |
| 1995-11-01 | 0.00237819 |
| 1995-12-01 | 0.00901068 |
| 1996-01-01 | 0.00155721 |
| 1996-02-01 | 0.00026587 |
| 1996-03-01 | 0.00053137 |
| 1996-04-01 | 0.00008439 |
| 1996-05-01 | 0.00004526 |
| 1996-06-01 | 0.00003217 |
| 1996-07-01 | 0.00016631 |
| 1996-08-01 | 0.00001883 |
| 1996-09-01 | 0.00017262 |
| 1996-10-01 | 0.00005309 |
| 1996-11-01 | 0.00014540 |
| 1996-12-01 | 0.00012878 |
| 1997-01-01 | 0.00000039 |
| 1997-02-01 | 0.00000003 |
| 1997-03-01 | 0.00000017 |
| 1997-04-01 | 0.00000269 |
| 1997-05-01 | 0.00000941 |
| 1997-06-01 | 0.00003906 |
| 1997-07-01 | 0.00000169 |
| 1997-08-01 | 0.00001024 |
| 1997-09-01 | 0.00003130 |
| 1997-10-01 | 0.00001232 |
| 1997-11-01 | 0.00003249 |
| 1997-12-01 | 0.00013289 |
| 1998-01-01 | 0.00147887 |
| 1998-02-01 | 0.00310527 |
| 1998-03-01 | 0.01638614 |
| 1998-04-01 | 0.01044787 |
| 1998-05-01 | 0.00218407 |
| 1998-06-01 | 0.00489854 |
| 1998-07-01 | 0.04566567 |
| 1998-08-01 | 0.00342605 |
| 1998-09-01 | 0.00284242 |
| 1998-10-01 | 0.05142947 |
| 1998-11-01 | 0.02185139 |
| 1998-12-01 | 0.00981253 |
| 1999-01-01 | 0.04771950 |
| 1999-02-01 | 0.00304983 |
| 1999-03-01 | 0.01838903 |
| 1999-04-01 | 0.00357082 |
| 1999-05-01 | 0.00000498 |
| 1999-06-01 | 0.00068676 |
| 1999-07-01 | 0.00073325 |
| 1999-08-01 | 0.00006669 |
| 1999-09-01 | 0.00003055 |
| 1999-10-01 | 0.00000198 |
| 1999-11-01 | 0.00004433 |
| 1999-12-01 | 0.00002044 |
| 2000-01-01 | 0.00000656 |
| 2000-02-01 | 0.00000019 |
| 2000-03-01 | 0.00000032 |
| 2000-04-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2000-05-01 | 0.00000353 |
| 2000-06-01 | 0.00000001 |
| 2000-07-01 | 0.00000008 |
| 2000-08-01 | 0.00000014 |
| 2000-09-01 | 0.00000014 |
| 2000-10-01 | 0.00000001 |
| 2000-11-01 | 0.00000007 |
| 2000-12-01 | 0.00000002 |
| 2001-01-01 | 0.00000252 |
| 2001-02-01 | 0.00000013 |
| 2001-03-01 | 0.00000024 |
| 2001-04-01 | 0.00001117 |
| 2001-05-01 | 0.00000009 |
| 2001-06-01 | 0.00000001 |
| 2001-07-01 | 0.00000009 |
| 2001-08-01 | 0.00000404 |
| 2001-09-01 | 0.00000301 |
| 2001-10-01 | 0.00100929 |
| 2001-11-01 | 0.00235560 |
| 2001-12-01 | 0.00041450 |
| 2002-01-01 | 0.00299419 |
| 2002-02-01 | 0.00681942 |
| 2002-03-01 | 0.00376238 |
| 2002-04-01 | 0.00007978 |
| 2002-05-01 | 0.00011776 |
| 2002-06-01 | 0.00054821 |
| 2002-07-01 | 0.00096197 |
| 2002-08-01 | 0.00021654 |
| 2002-09-01 | 0.00071384 |
| 2002-10-01 | 0.00044441 |
| 2002-11-01 | 0.00007159 |
| 2002-12-01 | 0.00006654 |
| 2003-01-01 | 0.00065080 |
| 2003-02-01 | 0.00032613 |
| 2003-03-01 | 0.00060791 |
| 2003-04-01 | 0.00138713 |
| 2003-05-01 | 0.07041713 |
| 2003-06-01 | 0.02400209 |
| 2003-07-01 | 0.00526277 |
| 2003-08-01 | 0.00005038 |
| 2003-09-01 | 0.00004130 |
| 2003-10-01 | 0.00053296 |
| 2003-11-01 | 0.00045783 |
| 2003-12-01 | 0.00057561 |
| 2004-01-01 | 0.00002761 |
| 2004-02-01 | 0.00001759 |
| 2004-03-01 | 0.00003079 |
| 2004-04-01 | 0.00004461 |
| 2004-05-01 | 0.00000135 |
| 2004-06-01 | 0.00000148 |
| 2004-07-01 | 0.00000162 |
| 2004-08-01 | 0.00003038 |
| 2004-09-01 | 0.00005566 |
| 2004-10-01 | 0.00002467 |
| 2004-11-01 | 0.00000066 |
| 2004-12-01 | 0.00000032 |
| 2005-01-01 | 0.00000134 |
| 2005-02-01 | 0.00000119 |
| 2005-03-01 | 0.00000031 |
| 2005-04-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2005-05-01 | 0.00000045 |
| 2005-06-01 | 0.00001163 |
| 2005-07-01 | 0.00000491 |
| 2005-08-01 | 0.00000007 |
| 2005-09-01 | 0.00000016 |
| 2005-10-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2005-11-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2005-12-01 | 0.00000979 |
| 2006-01-01 | 0.00000757 |
| 2006-02-01 | 0.00000001 |
| 2006-03-01 | 0.00000031 |
| 2006-04-01 | 0.00000263 |
| 2006-05-01 | 0.00000017 |
| 2006-06-01 | 0.00000003 |
| 2006-07-01 | 0.00000234 |
| 2006-08-01 | 0.00000194 |
| 2006-09-01 | 0.00000261 |
| 2006-10-01 | 0.00274208 |
| 2006-11-01 | 0.00228620 |
| 2006-12-01 | 0.00014468 |
| 2007-01-01 | 0.00013595 |
| 2007-02-01 | 0.00006881 |
| 2007-03-01 | 0.00000056 |
| 2007-04-01 | 0.00000264 |
| 2007-05-01 | 0.00003458 |
| 2007-06-01 | 0.00023319 |
| 2007-07-01 | 0.00031128 |
| 2007-08-01 | 0.00090745 |
| 2007-09-01 | 0.00952066 |
| 2007-10-01 | 0.00028260 |
| 2007-11-01 | 0.00008563 |
| 2007-12-01 | 0.00001574 |
| 2008-01-01 | 0.00017756 |
| 2008-02-01 | 0.00039402 |
| 2008-03-01 | 0.00014582 |
| 2008-04-01 | 0.00072701 |
| 2008-05-01 | 0.00014800 |
| 2008-06-01 | 0.00049914 |
| 2008-07-01 | 0.00004985 |
| 2008-08-01 | 0.00006291 |
| 2008-09-01 | 0.00053803 |
| 2008-10-01 | 0.00088691 |
| 2008-11-01 | 0.30505954 |
| 2008-12-01 | 0.49643667 |
| 2009-01-01 | 0.89005651 |
| 2009-02-01 | 0.25200196 |
| 2009-03-01 | 0.40195938 |
| 2009-04-01 | 0.76773019 |
| 2009-05-01 | 0.36659353 |
| 2009-06-01 | 0.44164433 |
| 2009-07-01 | 0.51913126 |
| 2009-08-01 | 0.74253895 |
| 2009-09-01 | 0.48274305 |
| 2009-10-01 | 0.57006620 |
| 2009-11-01 | 0.16408071 |
| 2009-12-01 | 0.00012954 |
| 2010-01-01 | 0.01461896 |
| 2010-02-01 | 0.01517004 |
| 2010-03-01 | 0.03637823 |
| 2010-04-01 | 0.00401037 |
| 2010-05-01 | 0.00231429 |
| 2010-06-01 | 0.01738653 |
| 2010-07-01 | 0.08412726 |
| 2010-08-01 | 0.03728611 |
| 2010-09-01 | 0.03114123 |
| 2010-10-01 | 0.05368137 |
| 2010-11-01 | 0.02065799 |
| 2010-12-01 | 0.05513364 |
| 2011-01-01 | 0.02050477 |
| 2011-02-01 | 0.01640086 |
| 2011-03-01 | 0.01501898 |
| 2011-04-01 | 0.03050179 |
| 2011-05-01 | 0.00342950 |
| 2011-06-01 | 0.00934181 |
| 2011-07-01 | 0.00337790 |
| 2011-08-01 | 0.00354778 |
| 2011-09-01 | 0.00747391 |
| 2011-10-01 | 0.01596486 |
| 2011-11-01 | 0.02148608 |
| 2011-12-01 | 0.02039148 |
| 2012-01-01 | 0.01431782 |
| 2012-02-01 | 0.00468668 |
| 2012-03-01 | 0.00230025 |
| 2012-04-01 | 0.00192859 |
| 2012-05-01 | 0.00442981 |
| 2012-06-01 | 0.01108736 |
| 2012-07-01 | 0.01444241 |
| 2012-08-01 | 0.00363738 |
| 2012-09-01 | 0.00121385 |
| 2012-10-01 | 0.00352683 |
| 2012-11-01 | 0.00970917 |
| 2012-12-01 | 0.00891072 |
| 2013-01-01 | 0.00375662 |
| 2013-02-01 | 0.00210777 |
| 2013-03-01 | 0.00217470 |
| 2013-04-01 | 0.00161436 |
| 2013-05-01 | 0.00700406 |
| 2013-06-01 | 0.00322943 |
| 2013-07-01 | 0.00300548 |
| 2013-08-01 | 0.00277536 |
| 2013-09-01 | 0.00350065 |
| 2013-10-01 | 0.00651134 |
| 2013-11-01 | 0.01312151 |
| 2013-12-01 | 0.00622406 |
| 2014-01-01 | 0.00581294 |
| 2014-02-01 | 0.00933296 |
| 2014-03-01 | 0.00883729 |
| 2014-04-01 | 0.00231563 |
| 2014-05-01 | 0.00207798 |
| 2014-06-01 | 0.00386689 |
| 2014-07-01 | 0.01052099 |
| 2014-08-01 | 0.00655762 |
| 2014-09-01 | 0.01237198 |
| 2014-10-01 | 0.01055919 |
| 2014-11-01 | 0.02554941 |
| 2014-12-01 | 0.03044042 |
| 2015-01-01 | 0.05611394 |
| 2015-02-01 | 0.45638423 |
| 2015-03-01 | 0.09386546 |
| 2015-04-01 | 0.04281423 |
| 2015-05-01 | 0.06798100 |
| 2015-06-01 | 0.03574943 |
| 2015-07-01 | 0.02646283 |
| 2015-08-01 | 0.07305711 |
| 2015-09-01 | 0.10318074 |
| 2015-10-01 | 0.14765832 |
| 2015-11-01 | 0.15314351 |
| 2015-12-01 | 0.16874779 |
| 2016-01-01 | 0.08681255 |
| 2016-02-01 | 0.02597486 |
| 2016-03-01 | 0.01448149 |
| 2016-04-01 | 0.00374187 |
| 2016-05-01 | 0.00175312 |
| 2016-06-01 | 0.00045658 |
| 2016-07-01 | 0.00122598 |
| 2016-08-01 | 0.00295786 |
| 2016-09-01 | 0.00112688 |
| 2016-10-01 | 0.00182528 |
| 2016-11-01 | 0.00095884 |
| 2016-12-01 | 0.00039137 |
| 2017-01-01 | 0.00150939 |
| 2017-02-01 | 0.00344509 |
| 2017-03-01 | 0.00299348 |
| 2017-04-01 | 0.00548267 |
| 2017-05-01 | 0.00960989 |
| 2017-06-01 | 0.00371041 |
| 2017-07-01 | 0.00486580 |
| 2017-08-01 | 0.00467926 |
| 2017-09-01 | 0.00694435 |
| 2017-10-01 | 0.00504874 |
| 2017-11-01 | 0.01016629 |
| 2017-12-01 | 0.00578143 |
| 2018-01-01 | 0.00243958 |
| 2018-02-01 | 0.00156811 |
| 2018-03-01 | 0.00264753 |
| 2018-04-01 | 0.00318428 |
| 2018-05-01 | 0.00212615 |
| 2018-06-01 | 0.00164101 |
| 2018-07-01 | 0.00306119 |
| 2018-08-01 | 0.00482681 |
| 2018-09-01 | 0.01100068 |
| 2018-10-01 | 0.00429111 |
| 2018-11-01 | 0.00435380 |
| 2018-12-01 | 0.00367949 |
| 2019-01-01 | 0.00630825 |
| 2019-02-01 | 0.00416072 |
| 2019-03-01 | 0.00357872 |
| 2019-04-01 | 0.00216722 |
| 2019-05-01 | 0.00262255 |
| 2019-06-01 | 0.00536752 |
| 2019-07-01 | 0.00552732 |
| 2019-08-01 | 0.00881933 |
| 2019-09-01 | 0.00784801 |
| 2019-10-01 | 0.00828575 |
| 2019-11-01 | 0.00316530 |
| 2019-12-01 | 0.00401904 |
| 2020-01-01 | 0.00179905 |
| 2020-02-01 | 0.00072371 |
| 2020-03-01 | 0.00208939 |
| 2020-04-01 | 0.10457413 |
| 2020-05-01 | 0.85242860 |
| 2020-06-01 | 0.01087495 |
| 2020-07-01 | 0.00534331 |
| 2020-08-01 | 0.00167376 |
| 2020-09-01 | 0.00030426 |
| 2020-10-01 | 0.00055471 |
| 2020-11-01 | 0.00216675 |
| 2020-12-01 | 0.00100673 |
| 2021-01-01 | 0.00121036 |
| 2021-02-01 | 0.00125405 |
| 2021-03-01 | 0.00059658 |
| 2021-04-01 | 0.00005173 |
| 2021-05-01 | 0.00013996 |
| 2021-06-01 | 0.00005911 |
| 2021-07-01 | 0.00002832 |
| 2021-08-01 | 0.00008865 |
| 2021-09-01 | 0.00003687 |
| 2021-10-01 | 0.00010781 |
| 2021-11-01 | 0.00003163 |
| 2021-12-01 | 0.00001099 |
| 2022-01-01 | 0.00001145 |
| 2022-02-01 | 0.00003317 |
| 2022-03-01 | 0.00000235 |
| 2022-04-01 | 0.00000097 |
| 2022-05-01 | 0.00000875 |
| 2022-06-01 | 0.00001439 |
| 2022-07-01 | 0.00004995 |
| 2022-08-01 | 0.00005457 |
| 2022-09-01 | 0.00004539 |
| 2022-10-01 | 0.00031244 |
| 2022-11-01 | 0.00045980 |
| 2022-12-01 | 0.00004844 |
| 2023-01-01 | 0.00009724 |
| 2023-02-01 | 0.00012124 |
| 2023-03-01 | 0.00003787 |
| 2023-04-01 | 0.00004013 |
| 2023-05-01 | 0.00001298 |
| 2023-06-01 | 0.00006192 |
| 2023-07-01 | 0.00017657 |
| 2023-08-01 | 0.00001696 |
| 2023-09-01 | 0.00016314 |
| 2023-10-01 | 0.00002731 |
| 2023-11-01 | 0.00024162 |
| 2023-12-01 | 0.00206267 |
| 2024-01-01 | 0.00302540 |
| 2024-02-01 | 0.00101657 |
| 2024-03-01 | 0.00064386 |
| 2024-04-01 | 0.00010279 |
| 2024-05-01 | 0.00028065 |
| 2024-06-01 | 0.00043886 |
| 2024-07-01 | 0.00139104 |
| 2024-08-01 | 0.00124045 |
| 2024-09-01 | 0.00158531 |
| 2024-10-01 | 0.00145807 |
| 2024-11-01 | 0.00116635 |
| 2024-12-01 | 0.00112651 |
| 2025-01-01 | 0.00075705 |
| 2025-02-01 | 0.00084579 |
| 2025-03-01 | 0.00015632 |
| 2025-04-01 | 0.00165745 |
| 2025-05-01 | 0.00191675 |
| 2025-06-01 | 0.00111600 |
| 2025-07-01 | 0.00047846 |
| 2025-08-01 | 0.00247323 |
| 2025-09-01 | 0.00092777 |
| 2025-10-01 | 0.00262756 |
| 2025-11-01 | 0.00326299 |
| 2025-12-01 | 0.00195570 |
| 2026-01-01 | 0.00106488 |
| 2026-02-01 | 0.00023957 |
| 2026-03-01 | 0.00000000 |