Title: Deflation Probability Series ID: STLPPMDEF Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Release: St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures (Not a Press Release) Seasonal Adjustment: Not Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly Units: Probability Date Range: 1990-01-01 to 2023-08-01 Last Updated: 2023-08-31 4:43 PM CDT Notes: This series measures the probability that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month changes) over the next 12 months will fall below zero. For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2015/11/06/introducing-the-st-louis-fed-price-pressures-measure/). As of April 5, 2023, the MZM Money Stock measure, in SA billions of dollars, has been replaced with the series Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding (break-adjusted), in SA billions of dollars, from the Federal Reserve’s monthly G.19 release. This change was made because the MZM series was discontinued. As of February 3, 2020, the Emerging and Developing Asia and Western Hemisphere Consumer Prices Indexes have been replaced with Asia/Pacific Rim and Latin America Consumer Price Indexes respectively. These changes were made to facilitate a more timely updating of the PPM. Switching the Consumer Prices Indexes produced no meaningful change in the PPM series. As of January 29, 2021, the Adjusted Monetary Base (including Deposits to Satisfy Clearing Balance Contracts) Seasonally Adjusted, in billions of dollars has been replaced with the series, Monetary Base, NSA, in billions of dollars. DATE VALUE 1990-01-01 0.13041442 1990-02-01 0.04512703 1990-03-01 0.08660381 1990-04-01 0.07248703 1990-05-01 0.09573397 1990-06-01 0.10197756 1990-07-01 0.10002655 1990-08-01 0.11852372 1990-09-01 0.18576917 1990-10-01 0.05710641 1990-11-01 0.08980726 1990-12-01 0.11076539 1991-01-01 0.07138475 1991-02-01 0.05212435 1991-03-01 0.05894362 1991-04-01 0.09685548 1991-05-01 0.09791784 1991-06-01 0.09333923 1991-07-01 0.07690011 1991-08-01 0.10011418 1991-09-01 0.12510557 1991-10-01 0.11395731 1991-11-01 0.12067621 1991-12-01 0.13316245 1992-01-01 0.16454036 1992-02-01 0.11905891 1992-03-01 0.12285500 1992-04-01 0.08601058 1992-05-01 0.09387598 1992-06-01 0.10699952 1992-07-01 0.09745668 1992-08-01 0.13697989 1992-09-01 0.13378964 1992-10-01 0.12830172 1992-11-01 0.10039846 1992-12-01 0.09680655 1993-01-01 0.08611168 1993-02-01 0.06839182 1993-03-01 0.10121178 1993-04-01 0.08435291 1993-05-01 0.08318768 1993-06-01 0.05162835 1993-07-01 0.07590534 1993-08-01 0.07100641 1993-09-01 0.08945866 1993-10-01 0.08882777 1993-11-01 0.09284757 1993-12-01 0.04986589 1994-01-01 0.06104646 1994-02-01 0.05726060 1994-03-01 0.02317500 1994-04-01 0.02459456 1994-05-01 0.02638643 1994-06-01 0.03134346 1994-07-01 0.04234490 1994-08-01 0.03191673 1994-09-01 0.01970901 1994-10-01 0.02821845 1994-11-01 0.03163772 1994-12-01 0.01570663 1995-01-01 0.00158804 1995-02-01 0.00059363 1995-03-01 0.00400529 1995-04-01 0.00113064 1995-05-01 0.00114827 1995-06-01 0.00143425 1995-07-01 0.00173518 1995-08-01 0.00211877 1995-09-01 0.00230142 1995-10-01 0.00874454 1995-11-01 0.00220440 1995-12-01 0.00875147 1996-01-01 0.00131540 1996-02-01 0.00025146 1996-03-01 0.00043377 1996-04-01 0.00008221 1996-05-01 0.00004148 1996-06-01 0.00003333 1996-07-01 0.00013497 1996-08-01 0.00001666 1996-09-01 0.00015298 1996-10-01 0.00005339 1996-11-01 0.00012998 1996-12-01 0.00012556 1997-01-01 0.00000027 1997-02-01 0.00000003 1997-03-01 0.00000014 1997-04-01 0.00000290 1997-05-01 0.00000725 1997-06-01 0.00003785 1997-07-01 0.00000217 1997-08-01 0.00001003 1997-09-01 0.00003069 1997-10-01 0.00001463 1997-11-01 0.00003724 1997-12-01 0.00018713 1998-01-01 0.00127488 1998-02-01 0.00301034 1998-03-01 0.01502705 1998-04-01 0.00951062 1998-05-01 0.00217952 1998-06-01 0.00475476 1998-07-01 0.04387422 1998-08-01 0.00317640 1998-09-01 0.00283830 1998-10-01 0.05050848 1998-11-01 0.02163212 1998-12-01 0.00846114 1999-01-01 0.04526864 1999-02-01 0.00292224 1999-03-01 0.01695321 1999-04-01 0.00309407 1999-05-01 0.00000425 1999-06-01 0.00060560 1999-07-01 0.00064310 1999-08-01 0.00005567 1999-09-01 0.00002518 1999-10-01 0.00000165 1999-11-01 0.00003860 1999-12-01 0.00001726 2000-01-01 0.00000680 2000-02-01 0.00000020 2000-03-01 0.00000028 2000-04-01 0.00000000 2000-05-01 0.00000314 2000-06-01 0.00000001 2000-07-01 0.00000007 2000-08-01 0.00000015 2000-09-01 0.00000013 2000-10-01 0.00000001 2000-11-01 0.00000007 2000-12-01 0.00000002 2001-01-01 0.00000274 2001-02-01 0.00000014 2001-03-01 0.00000028 2001-04-01 0.00001048 2001-05-01 0.00000010 2001-06-01 0.00000001 2001-07-01 0.00000010 2001-08-01 0.00000438 2001-09-01 0.00000315 2001-10-01 0.00107315 2001-11-01 0.00228698 2001-12-01 0.00042932 2002-01-01 0.00295047 2002-02-01 0.00632554 2002-03-01 0.00346027 2002-04-01 0.00007160 2002-05-01 0.00010807 2002-06-01 0.00050818 2002-07-01 0.00085302 2002-08-01 0.00019919 2002-09-01 0.00069031 2002-10-01 0.00042814 2002-11-01 0.00006735 2002-12-01 0.00006791 2003-01-01 0.00064901 2003-02-01 0.00030816 2003-03-01 0.00062661 2003-04-01 0.00136072 2003-05-01 0.06787144 2003-06-01 0.02376175 2003-07-01 0.00528644 2003-08-01 0.00004221 2003-09-01 0.00003399 2003-10-01 0.00050430 2003-11-01 0.00043464 2003-12-01 0.00056326 2004-01-01 0.00009578 2004-02-01 0.00004044 2004-03-01 0.00007106 2004-04-01 0.00010206 2004-05-01 0.00000274 2004-06-01 0.00000400 2004-07-01 0.00000470 2004-08-01 0.00010535 2004-09-01 0.00018754 2004-10-01 0.00005877 2004-11-01 0.00000551 2004-12-01 0.00000341 2005-01-01 0.00000359 2005-02-01 0.00000710 2005-03-01 0.00000188 2005-04-01 0.00000001 2005-05-01 0.00000144 2005-06-01 0.00001177 2005-07-01 0.00004024 2005-08-01 0.00000031 2005-09-01 0.00000055 2005-10-01 0.00000000 2005-11-01 0.00000004 2005-12-01 0.00002269 2006-01-01 0.00000820 2006-02-01 0.00000002 2006-03-01 0.00000033 2006-04-01 0.00000277 2006-05-01 0.00000017 2006-06-01 0.00000003 2006-07-01 0.00000238 2006-08-01 0.00000223 2006-09-01 0.00000248 2006-10-01 0.00386092 2006-11-01 0.00236508 2006-12-01 0.00015566 2007-01-01 0.00014009 2007-02-01 0.00006391 2007-03-01 0.00000061 2007-04-01 0.00000275 2007-05-01 0.00010041 2007-06-01 0.00045787 2007-07-01 0.00041748 2007-08-01 0.00149088 2007-09-01 0.00928623 2007-10-01 0.00030310 2007-11-01 0.00009618 2007-12-01 0.00001995 2008-01-01 0.00020434 2008-02-01 0.00048129 2008-03-01 0.00016744 2008-04-01 0.00074598 2008-05-01 0.00023324 2008-06-01 0.00047046 2008-07-01 0.00005156 2008-08-01 0.00000718 2008-09-01 0.00026000 2008-10-01 0.00016861 2008-11-01 0.19265904 2008-12-01 0.48413748 2009-01-01 0.89305152 2009-02-01 0.25416369 2009-03-01 0.39525305 2009-04-01 0.76417972 2009-05-01 0.39472499 2009-06-01 0.43561638 2009-07-01 0.39751618 2009-08-01 0.74250002 2009-09-01 0.47154316 2009-10-01 0.57232816 2009-11-01 0.16300355 2009-12-01 0.00013069 2010-01-01 0.01483803 2010-02-01 0.01578727 2010-03-01 0.03504046 2010-04-01 0.00379598 2010-05-01 0.00233438 2010-06-01 0.01795992 2010-07-01 0.08236287 2010-08-01 0.03901972 2010-09-01 0.03012658 2010-10-01 0.05345230 2010-11-01 0.02100498 2010-12-01 0.05310878 2011-01-01 0.02021576 2011-02-01 0.01587556 2011-03-01 0.01519091 2011-04-01 0.03018899 2011-05-01 0.00335526 2011-06-01 0.00938054 2011-07-01 0.00333675 2011-08-01 0.00384763 2011-09-01 0.00738023 2011-10-01 0.01580196 2011-11-01 0.02258305 2011-12-01 0.01921942 2012-01-01 0.01362989 2012-02-01 0.00485962 2012-03-01 0.00245462 2012-04-01 0.00182442 2012-05-01 0.00439659 2012-06-01 0.01106522 2012-07-01 0.01476384 2012-08-01 0.00400270 2012-09-01 0.00114182 2012-10-01 0.00338135 2012-11-01 0.00944980 2012-12-01 0.00923717 2013-01-01 0.00374306 2013-02-01 0.00444667 2013-03-01 0.00121387 2013-04-01 0.00413531 2013-05-01 0.00818917 2013-06-01 0.00297453 2013-07-01 0.00192470 2013-08-01 0.00223489 2013-09-01 0.00192400 2013-10-01 0.00314489 2013-11-01 0.01541251 2013-12-01 0.00623666 2014-01-01 0.00474200 2014-02-01 0.00833426 2014-03-01 0.00744383 2014-04-01 0.00187553 2014-05-01 0.00173989 2014-06-01 0.00321786 2014-07-01 0.00834469 2014-08-01 0.00538904 2014-09-01 0.01020567 2014-10-01 0.00851880 2014-11-01 0.02147220 2014-12-01 0.02534761 2015-01-01 0.04118360 2015-02-01 0.37407751 2015-03-01 0.05529639 2015-04-01 0.02768666 2015-05-01 0.05070245 2015-06-01 0.01995857 2015-07-01 0.01976157 2015-08-01 0.05641405 2015-09-01 0.08269925 2015-10-01 0.12664584 2015-11-01 0.13833616 2015-12-01 0.14544426 2016-01-01 0.08826178 2016-02-01 0.02360487 2016-03-01 0.01281920 2016-04-01 0.00609306 2016-05-01 0.00150351 2016-06-01 0.00039121 2016-07-01 0.00106986 2016-08-01 0.00242508 2016-09-01 0.00090240 2016-10-01 0.00153750 2016-11-01 0.00074952 2016-12-01 0.00028763 2017-01-01 0.00118373 2017-02-01 0.00303267 2017-03-01 0.00251436 2017-04-01 0.00467762 2017-05-01 0.00732811 2017-06-01 0.00290321 2017-07-01 0.00369715 2017-08-01 0.00372649 2017-09-01 0.00555265 2017-10-01 0.00392643 2017-11-01 0.00794557 2017-12-01 0.00405934 2018-01-01 0.00161517 2018-02-01 0.00118286 2018-03-01 0.00175828 2018-04-01 0.00202519 2018-05-01 0.00134814 2018-06-01 0.00111799 2018-07-01 0.00206614 2018-08-01 0.00366353 2018-09-01 0.00856736 2018-10-01 0.00337464 2018-11-01 0.00357519 2018-12-01 0.00308676 2019-01-01 0.00599857 2019-02-01 0.00359092 2019-03-01 0.00280797 2019-04-01 0.00155856 2019-05-01 0.00133905 2019-06-01 0.00362846 2019-07-01 0.00385522 2019-08-01 0.00650332 2019-09-01 0.00695964 2019-10-01 0.00562295 2019-11-01 0.00242586 2019-12-01 0.00374239 2020-01-01 0.00131232 2020-02-01 0.00052007 2020-03-01 0.00140330 2020-04-01 0.05511829 2020-05-01 0.83170834 2020-06-01 0.00602889 2020-07-01 0.00365277 2020-08-01 0.00083334 2020-09-01 0.00021964 2020-10-01 0.00038193 2020-11-01 0.00119929 2020-12-01 0.00098799 2021-01-01 0.00088498 2021-02-01 0.00138091 2021-03-01 0.00044019 2021-04-01 0.00003147 2021-05-01 0.00004485 2021-06-01 0.00002000 2021-07-01 0.00004132 2021-08-01 0.00007022 2021-09-01 0.00005863 2021-10-01 0.00011649 2021-11-01 0.00005410 2021-12-01 0.00000985 2022-01-01 0.00001373 2022-02-01 0.00006782 2022-03-01 0.00000295 2022-04-01 0.00000177 2022-05-01 0.00000281 2022-06-01 0.00000511 2022-07-01 0.00000931 2022-08-01 0.00000039 2022-09-01 0.00000894 2022-10-01 0.00026462 2022-11-01 0.00028856 2022-12-01 0.00000949 2023-01-01 0.00014022 2023-02-01 0.00015782 2023-03-01 0.00008291 2023-04-01 0.00004321 2023-05-01 0.00016170 2023-06-01 0.00007104 2023-07-01 0.00051761 2023-08-01 0.00001602