This index measures the probability that the U.S. economy was in a recession during the indicated quarter. It is based on a mathematical description of the way that recessions differ from expansions. The index corresponds to the probability (measured in percent) that the underlying true economic regime is one of recession based on the available data. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators that may not be released until several years after the event, this index is entirely mechanical, is based solely on currently available GDP data and is reported every quarter. Due to the possibility of data revisions and the challenges in accurately identifying the business cycle phase, the index is calculated for the quarter just preceding the most recently available GDP numbers. Once the index is calculated for that quarter, it is never subsequently revised. The value at every date was inferred using only data that were available one quarter after that date and as those data were reported at the time. If the value of the index rises above 67% that is a historically reliable indicator that the economy has entered a recession. Once this threshold has been passed, if it falls below 33% that is a reliable indicator that the recession is over. For more information about this series visit http://econbrowser.com/recession-index.
The World Uncertainty Index determines uncertainty using the frequency of the selfsame word in the quarterly Economist Intelligence Unit country reports. Please see Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom and Davide Furceri (2018), 'The World Uncertainty Index' (https://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/WUI_mimeo_10_29.pdf) for additional explanation.
Source ID: FL010000336.Q For more information about the Flow of Funds tables, see the Financial Accounts Guide (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Default.aspx). With each quarterly release, the source may make major data and structural revisions to the series and tables. These changes are available in the Release Highlights (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/FOFHighlight.aspx). In the Financial Accounts, the source identifies each series by a string of patterned letters and numbers. For a detailed description, including how this series is constructed, see the series analyzer (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/SeriesAnalyzer.aspx?s=FL010000336&t=) provided by the source.
Source ID: FL010000276.Q For more information about the Flow of Funds tables, see the Financial Accounts Guide (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Default.aspx). With each quarterly release, the source may make major data and structural revisions to the series and tables. These changes are available in the Release Highlights (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/FOFHighlight.aspx). In the Financial Accounts, the source identifies each series by a string of patterned letters and numbers. For a detailed description, including how this series is constructed, see the series analyzer (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/SeriesAnalyzer.aspx?s=FL010000276&t=) provided by the source.
BEA Account Code: A138RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A679RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: C307RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
This series has been discontinued and will no longer be updated. It was a duplicate of the following series, which will continue to be updated: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPCTPI BEA Account Code: A191RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B872RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B878RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B489RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B010RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B769RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B957RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B863RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B937RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B725RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B880RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A327RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B770RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B991RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B493RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B680RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: A871RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B997RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B881RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B542RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B977RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B873RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B533RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B752RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B909RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B267RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B768RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B683RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B720RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B681RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B862RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B998RG3 For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: BPCXRO For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DGDSRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DFSARG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DPCMRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DODGRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: BB03RO For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B983RO For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B712RO For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DPCXRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: AB70RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: BPCMRO For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B875RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B707RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B1065G For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: B143RG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DHUTRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: YC001177 For more information about this series, please see please visit the GDP release page (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product).
BEA Account Code: YC001176 For more information about this series, please see please visit the GDP release page (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product).
BEA Account Code: DMOTRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DFXARG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.
BEA Account Code: DRCARG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.