This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins on the 15th day of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th day of the month of the trough. This time series is a disaggregation of the monthly series. For more options on recession shading, see the note and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. The midpoint method is used for this series. The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEXRECD The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEXRECDP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data provided by the OECD at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/4BIGEURORECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/4BIGEURORECP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. The Four Big European Countries are: France, Germany, Italy, and United Kingdom. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ISRRECDM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ISRRECD The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SVKRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SVKREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/KORRECDM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/KORRECD The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GRCRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GRCREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data provided by the OECD at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BELRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BELRECP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data provided by the OECD at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GRCRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GRCRECP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FRARECDM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FRARECD The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data provided by the OECD at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSCRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSCRECP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. The Major Seven countries are: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins on the 15th day of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th day of the month of the trough. This time series is a disaggregation of the monthly series. For more options on recession shading, see the note and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. The midpoint method is used for this series. The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CZERECD The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CZERECDP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EURORECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EUROREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. The Euro area covers the Europe 16 area excluding Denmark, Sweden, and United Kingdom. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins midpoint of the period of the peak and ends midpoint of the period of the trough. Therefore, the recession period includes the entire period of both peak and trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. The midpoint method is used for this series. The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FINREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FINRECP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NDLRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NDLREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AUTRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AUTREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEXRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEXREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHNRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHNREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data provided by the OECD at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDRECP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BRARECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BRAREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins midpoint of the period of the peak and ends midpoint of the period of the trough. Therefore, the recession period includes the entire period of both peak and trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. The midpoint method is used for this series. The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LUXREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LUXRECP

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHLRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHLREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LUXRECDM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LUXRECDP

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data provided by the OECD at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SWERECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SWERECP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins on the 15th day of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th day of the month of the trough. This time series is a disaggregation of the monthly series. For more options on recession shading, see the note and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. The midpoint method is used for this series. The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OECDEUROPERECD The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OECDEUROPERECDP

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins on the 15th day of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th day of the month of the trough. This time series is a disaggregation of the monthly series. For more options on recession shading, see the note and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. The midpoint method is used for this series. The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/4BIGEURORECD The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/4BIGEURORECDP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. The Four Big European Countries are: France, Germany, Italy, and United Kingdom. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data provided by the OECD at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAFTARECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAFTARECP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. The NAFTA area covers the following 3 countries: Canada, Mexico, and United States. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data provided by the OECD at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/KORRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/KORRECP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IRLRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IRLREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AUSRECDM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AUSRECD The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data provided by the OECD at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HUNRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HUNRECP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data provided by the OECD at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AUSRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AUSRECP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAFTARECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAFTAREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. The NAFTA area covers the following 3 countries: Canada, Mexico, and United States. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RUSRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RUSREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LUXRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LUXRECP

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SVNRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SVNREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins midpoint of the period of the peak and ends midpoint of the period of the trough. Therefore, the recession period includes the entire period of both peak and trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. The midpoint method is used for this series. The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ISRREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ISRRECP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data provided by the OECD at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEXRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEXRECP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GBRRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GBRREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IDNRECDM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IDNRECD The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GRCRECDM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GRCRECDP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins on the 15th day of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th day of the month of the trough. This time series is a disaggregation of the monthly series. For more options on recession shading, see the note and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. The midpoint method is used for this series. The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDRECD The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDRECDP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins on the 15th day of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th day of the month of the trough. This time series is a disaggregation of the monthly series. For more options on recession shading, see the note and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. The midpoint method is used for this series. The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FINRECD The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FINRECDP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MAJOR5ASIARECDM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MAJOR5ASIARECD The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. The Major 5 Asia countries are: China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins on the 15th day of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th day of the month of the trough. This time series is a disaggregation of the monthly series. For more options on recession shading, see the note and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. The midpoint method is used for this series. The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OECDRECD The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OECDRECDP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. The OECD-Total covers the following 29 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CZERECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CZEREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ZAFRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ZAFREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OECDNMERECDM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OECDNMERECDP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. The OECD and Non-member economies covers the following 35 countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russian Federation, Slovak Republic, Spain, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/KORRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/KORREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins on the 15th day of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th day of the month of the trough. This time series is a disaggregation of the monthly series. For more options on recession shading, see the note and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. The midpoint method is used for this series. The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NDLRECD The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NDLRECDP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RUSRECDM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RUSRECDP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data provided by the OECD at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GBRRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GBRRECP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USARECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data provided by the OECD at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEURECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEURECP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data provided by the OECD at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RUSRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RUSRECP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NORRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NORREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins midpoint of the period of the peak and ends midpoint of the period of the trough. Therefore, the recession period includes the entire period of both peak and trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. The midpoint method is used for this series. The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HUNREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HUNRECP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data provided by the OECD at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SVKRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SVKRECP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FRARECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FRAREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period of the peak and ends on the last day of the period before the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. A version of this time series represented using the midpoint method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DNKRECM The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DNKREC The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The peak method is used for this series. The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins on the 15th day of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th day of the month of the trough. This time series is a disaggregation of the monthly series. For more options on recession shading, see the note and links below. The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period. The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. The midpoint method is used for this series. The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSCRECD The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSCRECDP The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle. Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs). Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.) The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability. The Major Seven countries are: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States. OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)