Table Data - Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED)
| Title | Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED) |
|---|---|
| Series ID | NROUST |
| Source | U.S. Congressional Budget Office |
| Release | Budget and Economic Outlook |
| Seasonal Adjustment | Not Seasonally Adjusted |
| Frequency | Quarterly |
| Units | Percent |
| Date Range | 1949-01-01 to 2031-10-01 |
| Last Updated | 2021-02-01 2:37 PM CST |
| Notes | This series last appeared in the February, 2021 report: An Overview of the Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031. The suggested substitute for this series is "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment" (NROU), formerly called "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)." The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation. |
| DATE | VALUE |
|---|---|
| 1949-01-01 | 5.2550525670000000 |
| 1949-04-01 | 5.2615156170000000 |
| 1949-07-01 | 5.2680130000000000 |
| 1949-10-01 | 5.2745640000000000 |
| 1950-01-01 | 5.2811820000000000 |
| 1950-04-01 | 5.2878660000000000 |
| 1950-07-01 | 5.2946040000000000 |
| 1950-10-01 | 5.3013670000000000 |
| 1951-01-01 | 5.3081130000000000 |
| 1951-04-01 | 5.3147890000000000 |
| 1951-07-01 | 5.3213334080000000 |
| 1951-10-01 | 5.3276824950000000 |
| 1952-01-01 | 5.3337740000000000 |
| 1952-04-01 | 5.3395550000000010 |
| 1952-07-01 | 5.3449854850000000 |
| 1952-10-01 | 5.3500404360000005 |
| 1953-01-01 | 5.3547129999999990 |
| 1953-04-01 | 5.3590116500000000 |
| 1953-07-01 | 5.3629580000000000 |
| 1953-10-01 | 5.3665823940000000 |
| 1954-01-01 | 5.3699220000000000 |
| 1954-04-01 | 5.3730144500000000 |
| 1954-07-01 | 5.3759020000000000 |
| 1954-10-01 | 5.3786239999999990 |
| 1955-01-01 | 5.3812200000000000 |
| 1955-04-01 | 5.3837250000000000 |
| 1955-07-01 | 5.3861710000000000 |
| 1955-10-01 | 5.3885860000000000 |
| 1956-01-01 | 5.3909964560000000 |
| 1956-04-01 | 5.3934300000000000 |
| 1956-07-01 | 5.3959170000000000 |
| 1956-10-01 | 5.3984930000000000 |
| 1957-01-01 | 5.4011983870000010 |
| 1957-04-01 | 5.4040803910000000 |
| 1957-07-01 | 5.4071846010000000 |
| 1957-10-01 | 5.4105580000000000 |
| 1958-01-01 | 5.4142403600000000 |
| 1958-04-01 | 5.4182660000000000 |
| 1958-07-01 | 5.4226584429999996 |
| 1958-10-01 | 5.4274290000000000 |
| 1959-01-01 | 5.4325766560000000 |
| 1959-04-01 | 5.4380855560000000 |
| 1959-07-01 | 5.4439269999999995 |
| 1959-10-01 | 5.4500640000000000 |
| 1960-01-01 | 5.4564523700000000 |
| 1960-04-01 | 5.4630510000000000 |
| 1960-07-01 | 5.4698295590000000 |
| 1960-10-01 | 5.4767700000000000 |
| 1961-01-01 | 5.4838750000000000 |
| 1961-04-01 | 5.4911650000000005 |
| 1961-07-01 | 5.4986753460000010 |
| 1961-10-01 | 5.5064554210000000 |
| 1962-01-01 | 5.5145589999999990 |
| 1962-04-01 | 5.5230420000000000 |
| 1962-07-01 | 5.5319504739999990 |
| 1962-10-01 | 5.5413239999999995 |
| 1963-01-01 | 5.5511880000000000 |
| 1963-04-01 | 5.5615520000000000 |
| 1963-07-01 | 5.5724110000000000 |
| 1963-10-01 | 5.5837473870000010 |
| 1964-01-01 | 5.5955276490000000 |
| 1964-04-01 | 5.6077059999999990 |
| 1964-07-01 | 5.6202225690000000 |
| 1964-10-01 | 5.6330070000000000 |
| 1965-01-01 | 5.6459769999999990 |
| 1965-04-01 | 5.6590440000000010 |
| 1965-07-01 | 5.6721160000000000 |
| 1965-10-01 | 5.6851050000000000 |
| 1966-01-01 | 5.6979300000000000 |
| 1966-04-01 | 5.7105290000000000 |
| 1966-07-01 | 5.7228610000000000 |
| 1966-10-01 | 5.7349150000000000 |
| 1967-01-01 | 5.7467040000000000 |
| 1967-04-01 | 5.7582699999999996 |
| 1967-07-01 | 5.7696720000000000 |
| 1967-10-01 | 5.7809839999999990 |
| 1968-01-01 | 5.7922860000000000 |
| 1968-04-01 | 5.8036584850000000 |
| 1968-07-01 | 5.8151755330000000 |
| 1968-10-01 | 5.8269050000000000 |
| 1969-01-01 | 5.8389010000000000 |
| 1969-04-01 | 5.8512096410000005 |
| 1969-07-01 | 5.8638639999999995 |
| 1969-10-01 | 5.8768880000000000 |
| 1970-01-01 | 5.8902983670000010 |
| 1970-04-01 | 5.9041000000000000 |
| 1970-07-01 | 5.9182920000000000 |
| 1970-10-01 | 5.9328610000000000 |
| 1971-01-01 | 5.9477820000000000 |
| 1971-04-01 | 5.9630160000000005 |
| 1971-07-01 | 5.9785056110000000 |
| 1971-10-01 | 5.9941770000000000 |
| 1972-01-01 | 6.0099400000000000 |
| 1972-04-01 | 6.0256905560000000 |
| 1972-07-01 | 6.0413169999999990 |
| 1972-10-01 | 6.0567060000000000 |
| 1973-01-01 | 6.0717453960000000 |
| 1973-04-01 | 6.0863350000000000 |
| 1973-07-01 | 6.1003866200000000 |
| 1973-10-01 | 6.1138305660000000 |
| 1974-01-01 | 6.1266164780000000 |
| 1974-04-01 | 6.1387150000000000 |
| 1974-07-01 | 6.1501145360000000 |
| 1974-10-01 | 6.1608195300000000 |
| 1975-01-01 | 6.1708440000000010 |
| 1975-04-01 | 6.1802090000000000 |
| 1975-07-01 | 6.1889340000000000 |
| 1975-10-01 | 6.1970324520000000 |
| 1976-01-01 | 6.2045090000000000 |
| 1976-04-01 | 6.2113580000000010 |
| 1976-07-01 | 6.2175630000000000 |
| 1976-10-01 | 6.2230989999999995 |
| 1977-01-01 | 6.2279310000000000 |
| 1977-04-01 | 6.2320165629999990 |
| 1977-07-01 | 6.2353090000000000 |
| 1977-10-01 | 6.2377570000000000 |
| 1978-01-01 | 6.2393110000000000 |
| 1978-04-01 | 6.2399270000000000 |
| 1978-07-01 | 6.2395744320000000 |
| 1978-10-01 | 6.2382345200000000 |
| 1979-01-01 | 6.2359094620000000 |
| 1979-04-01 | 6.2326169999999990 |
| 1979-07-01 | 6.2283935550000000 |
| 1979-10-01 | 6.2232900000000000 |
| 1980-01-01 | 6.2173705100000000 |
| 1980-04-01 | 6.2107090000000000 |
| 1980-07-01 | 6.2033879999999995 |
| 1980-10-01 | 6.1954956050000000 |
| 1981-01-01 | 6.1871230000000010 |
| 1981-04-01 | 6.1783614160000000 |
| 1981-07-01 | 6.1693024639999990 |
| 1981-10-01 | 6.1600310000000000 |
| 1982-01-01 | 6.1506270000000000 |
| 1982-04-01 | 6.1411595340000000 |
| 1982-07-01 | 6.1316870000000000 |
| 1982-10-01 | 6.1222540000000000 |
| 1983-01-01 | 6.1128890000000000 |
| 1983-04-01 | 6.1036060000000000 |
| 1983-07-01 | 6.0944004060000000 |
| 1983-10-01 | 6.0852540000000000 |
| 1984-01-01 | 6.0761310000000000 |
| 1984-04-01 | 6.0669820000000000 |
| 1984-07-01 | 6.0577610000000000 |
| 1984-10-01 | 6.0484213829999990 |
| 1985-01-01 | 6.0389029999999995 |
| 1985-04-01 | 6.0291395190000000 |
| 1985-07-01 | 6.0190570000000000 |
| 1985-10-01 | 6.0085780000000000 |
| 1986-01-01 | 5.9976220000000000 |
| 1986-04-01 | 5.9861100000000000 |
| 1986-07-01 | 5.9739675520000000 |
| 1986-10-01 | 5.9611253740000000 |
| 1987-01-01 | 5.9475255010000000 |
| 1987-04-01 | 5.9331254960000010 |
| 1987-07-01 | 5.9179015160000010 |
| 1987-10-01 | 5.9018550000000000 |
| 1988-01-01 | 5.8850150000000000 |
| 1988-04-01 | 5.8674400000000000 |
| 1988-07-01 | 5.8492169999999994 |
| 1988-10-01 | 5.8304524420000000 |
| 1989-01-01 | 5.8112673760000000 |
| 1989-04-01 | 5.7917870000000000 |
| 1989-07-01 | 5.7721350000000000 |
| 1989-10-01 | 5.7524285320000010 |
| 1990-01-01 | 5.7327650000000006 |
| 1990-04-01 | 5.7132306100000000 |
| 1990-07-01 | 5.6939024929999995 |
| 1990-10-01 | 5.6748514179999990 |
| 1991-01-01 | 5.6561455730000000 |
| 1991-04-01 | 5.6378379999999995 |
| 1991-07-01 | 5.6199610000000000 |
| 1991-10-01 | 5.6025339999999995 |
| 1992-01-01 | 5.5855765339999990 |
| 1992-04-01 | 5.5690839999999990 |
| 1992-07-01 | 5.5530589999999990 |
| 1992-10-01 | 5.5375110000000000 |
| 1993-01-01 | 5.5224550000000000 |
| 1993-04-01 | 5.5079045300000000 |
| 1993-07-01 | 5.4938645360000000 |
| 1993-10-01 | 5.4803414340000000 |
| 1994-01-01 | 5.4673385620000000 |
| 1994-04-01 | 5.4548450000000000 |
| 1994-07-01 | 5.4428380000000000 |
| 1994-10-01 | 5.4312910000000010 |
| 1995-01-01 | 5.4201720000000000 |
| 1995-04-01 | 5.4094514850000000 |
| 1995-07-01 | 5.3990910000000000 |
| 1995-10-01 | 5.3890500000000000 |
| 1996-01-01 | 5.3792760000000000 |
| 1996-04-01 | 5.3697094920000000 |
| 1996-07-01 | 5.3602924350000000 |
| 1996-10-01 | 5.3509736060000000 |
| 1997-01-01 | 5.3416960000000000 |
| 1997-04-01 | 5.3324093820000000 |
| 1997-07-01 | 5.3230805400000000 |
| 1997-10-01 | 5.3136900000000000 |
| 1998-01-01 | 5.3042220000000000 |
| 1998-04-01 | 5.2946640000000000 |
| 1998-07-01 | 5.2850010000000000 |
| 1998-10-01 | 5.2752330000000000 |
| 1999-01-01 | 5.2653630000000000 |
| 1999-04-01 | 5.2553944590000000 |
| 1999-07-01 | 5.2453336720000000 |
| 1999-10-01 | 5.2351846690000000 |
| 2000-01-01 | 5.2249480000000000 |
| 2000-04-01 | 5.2146220000000000 |
| 2000-07-01 | 5.2042110000000000 |
| 2000-10-01 | 5.1937310000000000 |
| 2001-01-01 | 5.1831965450000000 |
| 2001-04-01 | 5.1726136210000000 |
| 2001-07-01 | 5.1619830000000000 |
| 2001-10-01 | 5.1513130000000000 |
| 2002-01-01 | 5.1406154630000005 |
| 2002-04-01 | 5.1299050000000000 |
| 2002-07-01 | 5.1192090000000000 |
| 2002-10-01 | 5.1085615160000000 |
| 2003-01-01 | 5.0979900000000000 |
| 2003-04-01 | 5.0875250000000000 |
| 2003-07-01 | 5.0772020000000000 |
| 2003-10-01 | 5.0670585630000000 |
| 2004-01-01 | 5.0571260000000000 |
| 2004-04-01 | 5.0474324230000000 |
| 2004-07-01 | 5.0380080000000005 |
| 2004-10-01 | 5.0288786890000000 |
| 2005-01-01 | 5.0200760000000000 |
| 2005-04-01 | 5.0116370000000000 |
| 2005-07-01 | 5.0036544800000000 |
| 2005-10-01 | 4.9967167760000000 |
| 2006-01-01 | 4.9870167370000000 |
| 2006-04-01 | 4.9767344760000000 |
| 2006-07-01 | 4.9660111580000000 |
| 2006-10-01 | 4.9550400800000000 |
| 2007-01-01 | 4.9440469800000000 |
| 2007-04-01 | 4.9332685790000000 |
| 2007-07-01 | 4.9229251390000000 |
| 2007-10-01 | 4.9131943250000000 |
| 2008-01-01 | 4.9120833789999990 |
| 2008-04-01 | 4.9601141090000000 |
| 2008-07-01 | 4.9904793360000000 |
| 2008-10-01 | 5.1046015420000000 |
| 2009-01-01 | 5.2122924180000005 |
| 2009-04-01 | 5.2831149380000000 |
| 2009-07-01 | 5.3952471220000010 |
| 2009-10-01 | 5.5038992020000000 |
| 2010-01-01 | 5.6480510590000000 |
| 2010-04-01 | 5.6902888160000000 |
| 2010-07-01 | 5.7269673420000010 |
| 2010-10-01 | 5.7709418810000010 |
| 2011-01-01 | 5.8043440379999990 |
| 2011-04-01 | 5.8225889230000000 |
| 2011-07-01 | 5.8306052610000005 |
| 2011-10-01 | 5.8472033480000000 |
| 2012-01-01 | 5.8150092260000000 |
| 2012-04-01 | 5.7812624439999990 |
| 2012-07-01 | 5.7124114060000000 |
| 2012-10-01 | 5.6560549510000010 |
| 2013-01-01 | 5.5168966620000010 |
| 2013-04-01 | 5.3705869439999990 |
| 2013-07-01 | 5.2659870020000000 |
| 2013-10-01 | 5.1509943540000000 |
| 2014-01-01 | 5.0451102530000000 |
| 2014-04-01 | 4.9566196870000000 |
| 2014-07-01 | 4.8877573830000000 |
| 2014-10-01 | 4.8388872310000000 |
| 2015-01-01 | 4.8103944190000000 |
| 2015-04-01 | 4.7826867520000000 |
| 2015-07-01 | 4.7561950610000010 |
| 2015-10-01 | 4.7313720000000000 |
| 2016-01-01 | 4.7086910000000000 |
| 2016-04-01 | 4.6886380000000000 |
| 2016-07-01 | 4.6713230000000000 |
| 2016-10-01 | 4.6565980000000010 |
| 2017-01-01 | 4.6441630000000000 |
| 2017-04-01 | 4.6336300000000000 |
| 2017-07-01 | 4.6245810000000000 |
| 2017-10-01 | 4.6165980000000010 |
| 2018-01-01 | 4.6092889999999995 |
| 2018-04-01 | 4.6023040000000000 |
| 2018-07-01 | 4.5953520000000000 |
| 2018-10-01 | 4.5882140000000000 |
| 2019-01-01 | 4.5591070000000000 |
| 2019-04-01 | 4.5480720000000000 |
| 2019-07-01 | 4.5365180000000000 |
| 2019-10-01 | 4.5246820000000000 |
| 2020-01-01 | 4.5128760000000000 |
| 2020-04-01 | 4.5014350000000000 |
| 2020-07-01 | 4.4906580000000000 |
| 2020-10-01 | 4.4807559999999995 |
| 2021-01-01 | 4.4718330000000000 |
| 2021-04-01 | 4.4638919999999995 |
| 2021-07-01 | 4.4568650000000005 |
| 2021-10-01 | 4.4506510000000010 |
| 2022-01-01 | 4.4451370000000000 |
| 2022-04-01 | 4.4402140000000000 |
| 2022-07-01 | 4.4357840000000000 |
| 2022-10-01 | 4.4317600000000000 |
| 2023-01-01 | 4.4280640000000000 |
| 2023-04-01 | 4.4246290000000000 |
| 2023-07-01 | 4.4213970000000000 |
| 2023-10-01 | 4.4183170000000000 |
| 2024-01-01 | 4.4153480000000010 |
| 2024-04-01 | 4.4124500000000000 |
| 2024-07-01 | 4.4095870000000000 |
| 2024-10-01 | 4.4067240000000000 |
| 2025-01-01 | 4.4038240000000000 |
| 2025-04-01 | 4.4008540000000000 |
| 2025-07-01 | 4.3977790000000000 |
| 2025-10-01 | 4.3945710000000000 |
| 2026-01-01 | 4.3912030000000000 |
| 2026-04-01 | 4.3876520000000000 |
| 2026-07-01 | 4.3839010000000000 |
| 2026-10-01 | 4.3799360000000000 |
| 2027-01-01 | 4.3757449999999990 |
| 2027-04-01 | 4.3713260000000000 |
| 2027-07-01 | 4.3666820000000000 |
| 2027-10-01 | 4.3618250000000000 |
| 2028-01-01 | 4.3567750000000000 |
| 2028-04-01 | 4.3515540000000000 |
| 2028-07-01 | 4.3461900000000000 |
| 2028-10-01 | 4.3407070000000000 |
| 2029-01-01 | 4.3351300000000000 |
| 2029-04-01 | 4.3294800000000000 |
| 2029-07-01 | 4.3237730000000000 |
| 2029-10-01 | 4.3180280000000000 |
| 2030-01-01 | 4.3122610000000000 |
| 2030-04-01 | 4.3064860000000005 |
| 2030-07-01 | 4.3007210000000000 |
| 2030-10-01 | 4.2949820000000000 |
| 2031-01-01 | 4.2892820000000000 |
| 2031-04-01 | 4.2836300000000005 |
| 2031-07-01 | 4.2780290000000000 |
| 2031-10-01 | 4.2724699999999990 |
