Source:
U.S. Congressional Budget Office
Release:
Budget and Economic Outlook
Units:
Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency:
Quarterly
Notes:
The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.
Suggested Citation:
U.S. Congressional Budget Office,
Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term) [NROU],
retrieved from FRED,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NROU,
January 23, 2021.