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Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED) (NROUST)


Q4 2031: 4.27247 (+ more)   Updated: Feb 1, 2021
Q4 2031:  4.27247  
Q3 2031:  4.27803  
Q2 2031:  4.28363  
Q1 2031:  4.28928  
Q4 2030:  4.29498  
View All


Not Seasonally Adjusted




Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office  

Release: Budget and Economic Outlook  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Quarterly


This series last appeared in the February, 2021 report: An Overview of the Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031. The suggested substitute for this series is "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment" (NROU), formerly called "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)."

The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Congressional Budget Office, Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED) [NROUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NROUST, September 30, 2023.


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