Federal Reserve Economic Data: Your trusted data source since 1991

Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED) (NROUST)


Q1 2018: 4.60929 (+ more)   Updated: Feb 1, 2021
Q1 2018:  4.60929  
Q4 2017:  4.61660  
Q3 2017:  4.62458  
Q2 2017:  4.63363  
Q1 2017:  4.64416  
View All


Not Seasonally Adjusted




Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office  

Release: Budget and Economic Outlook  

Units:  Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Quarterly


This series last appeared in the February, 2021 report: An Overview of the Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031. The suggested substitute for this series is "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment" (NROU), formerly called "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)."

The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

Suggested Citation:

U.S. Congressional Budget Office, Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED) [NROUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NROUST, September 28, 2023.


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