Federal Reserve Economic Data

Release Tables

Summary of Economic Projections

   

Please select a date range

    2025    
 
 
    2028
Name 2025 Preceding
Period 		Year Ago
from Period 		Units
Median
Change in real GDP 		1.6 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate 		4.5 Percent . Percent . Percent %
PCE inflation 		3.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation 		3.1 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate 		3.6 Percent . Percent . Percent %
Central Tendency Low
Change in real GDP 		1.4 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate 		4.4 Fourth Quarter, Percent . Fourth Quarter, Percent . Fourth Quarter, Percent Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation 		2.9 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation 		3.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate 		3.6 Percent . Percent . Percent %
Central Tendency Midpoint
Change in real GDP 		1.55 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate 		4.45 Fourth Quarter, Percent . Fourth Quarter, Percent . Fourth Quarter, Percent Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation 		2.95 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation 		3.1 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate 		3.85 Percent . Percent . Percent %
Central Tendency High
Change in real GDP 		1.7 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate 		4.5 Fourth Quarter, Percent . Fourth Quarter, Percent . Fourth Quarter, Percent Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation 		3.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation 		3.2 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate 		4.1 Percent . Percent . Percent %
Range Low
Change in real GDP 		1.3 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate 		4.2 Fourth Quarter, Percent . Fourth Quarter, Percent . Fourth Quarter, Percent Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation 		2.5 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation 		2.7 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate 		2.9 Percent . Percent . Percent %
Range Midpoint
Change in real GDP 		1.65 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate 		4.40 Fourth Quarter, Percent . Fourth Quarter, Percent . Fourth Quarter, Percent Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation 		2.85 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation 		3.05 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate 		3.65 Percent . Percent . Percent %
Range High
Change in real GDP 		2.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Unemployment rate 		4.6 Fourth Quarter, Percent . Fourth Quarter, Percent . Fourth Quarter, Percent Fourth Qtr., %
PCE inflation 		3.2 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Core PCE inflation 		3.4 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change . Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate 		4.4 Percent . Percent . Percent %
   

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