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    2024    

 

 

    2026

	Name	2024	Preceding Period	Year Ago from Period	Units
	MEDIAN
	Change in real GDP	2.1 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Unemployment rate	4.0 Percent	. Percent	. Percent	%
	PCE inflation	2.4 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Core PCE inflation	2.6 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
	Federal funds rate	4.6 Percent	. Percent	. Percent	%
	CENTRAL TENDENCY LOW
	Change in real GDP	2.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Unemployment rate	3.9 Fourth Quarter, Percent	. Fourth Quarter, Percent	. Fourth Quarter, Percent	Fourth Qtr., %
	PCE inflation	2.3 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Core PCE inflation	2.5 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
	Federal funds rate	4.6 Percent	. Percent	. Percent	%
	CENTRAL TENDENCY MIDPOINT
	Change in real GDP	2.20 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Unemployment rate	4.00 Fourth Quarter, Percent	. Fourth Quarter, Percent	. Fourth Quarter, Percent	Fourth Qtr., %
	PCE inflation	2.50 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Core PCE inflation	2.65 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
	Federal funds rate	4.85 Percent	. Percent	. Percent	%
	CENTRAL TENDENCY HIGH
	Change in real GDP	2.4 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Unemployment rate	4.1 Fourth Quarter, Percent	. Fourth Quarter, Percent	. Fourth Quarter, Percent	Fourth Qtr., %
	PCE inflation	2.7 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Core PCE inflation	2.8 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
	Federal funds rate	5.1 Percent	. Percent	. Percent	%
	RANGE LOW
	Change in real GDP	1.3 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Unemployment rate	3.8 Fourth Quarter, Percent	. Fourth Quarter, Percent	. Fourth Quarter, Percent	Fourth Qtr., %
	PCE inflation	2.2 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Core PCE inflation	2.4 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
	Federal funds rate	4.4 Percent	. Percent	. Percent	%
	RANGE MIDPOINT
	Change in real GDP	2.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Unemployment rate	4.15 Fourth Quarter, Percent	. Fourth Quarter, Percent	. Fourth Quarter, Percent	Fourth Qtr., %
	PCE inflation	2.55 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Core PCE inflation	2.70 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
	Federal funds rate	4.90 Percent	. Percent	. Percent	%
	RANGE HIGH
	Change in real GDP	2.7 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Unemployment rate	4.5 Fourth Quarter, Percent	. Fourth Quarter, Percent	. Fourth Quarter, Percent	Fourth Qtr., %
	PCE inflation	2.9 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Core PCE inflation	3.0 Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	. Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change	Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg.
	Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
	Federal funds rate	5.4 Percent	. Percent	. Percent	%

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