Real potential GDP is the CBO’s estimate of the output the economy would produce with a high rate of use of its capital and labor resources. The data is adjusted to remove the effects of inflation.

Projections of real gross domestic product growth are fourth-quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the midpoint of the central tendency forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

Projections of real gross domestic product growth are fourth-quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the median value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

Projections of real gross domestic product growth are fourth-quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the high value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

Projections of real gross domestic product growth are fourth- quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the low value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

Projections of real gross domestic product growth are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the low value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

Projections of real gross domestic product growth are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the midpoint of the range forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

Projections of real gross domestic product growth are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the value of the range high forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Gross Government Investment represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Gross Government Investment provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

St. Louis Fed’s Economic News Index (ENI) uses economic content from key monthly economic data releases to forecast the growth of real GDP during that quarter. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA’s release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter. For more information, see Grover, Sean P.; Kliesen, Kevin L.; and McCracken, Michael W. “A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth" (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2016/12/05/a-macroeconomic-news-index-for-constructing-nowcasts-of-u-s-real-gross-domestic-product-growth/ )

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Structures represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Structures provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Change of Inventory Investment represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Change of Inventory Investment provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Equipment represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Equipment provides to real GDP growth. For any forecasts occurring on or before the second quarter of 2013, the Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Equipment was actually Equipment and Software. Currently, Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Equipment excludes Software. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Goods represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Goods provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Change of Net Exports of Goods and Services represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Change of Net Exports of Goods and Services provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Imports of Goods and Services represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Imports of Goods and Services provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Nowcast for Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Intellectual Property Products uses a nowcasting model to synthesize the bridge equation approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with factor model and Bayesian vector autoregression approaches. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow release complements the quarterly GDP release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The Atlanta Fed recalculates and updates their GDPNow forecasts (called “nowcasts”) throughout the quarter as new data are released, up until the BEA releases its “advance estimate” of GDP for that quarter. The St. Louis Fed constructs a quarterly time series for this dataset, in which both historical and current observations values are combined. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA’s release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter. For futher information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Exports of Goods and Services represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Exports of Goods and Services provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Final Sales of Domestic Product represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Final Sales of Domestic Product provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Intellectual Property Products represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: Intellectual Property Products provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Personal Consumption Expenditures provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Services represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Services provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Residential represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Residential provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Exports of Goods represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Exports of Goods provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Exports of Services represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Exports of Services provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Gross Government Investment: Federal Government represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Gross Government Investment: Federal Government provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Gross Private Domestic Investment represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Gross Private Domestic Investment provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Imports of Services represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Imports of Services provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Imports of Goods represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Imports of Goods provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Gross Government Investment: State and Local Government represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Gross Government Investment: State and Local Government provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of real gross domestic product growth are fourth-quarter growth rates - that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the midpoint of the central tendency forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, unemployment, and federal funds rate to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of real gross domestic product growth are fourth-quarter growth rates - that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the median value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of real gross domestic product growth are fourth-quarter growth rates - that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the high value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of real gross domestic product growth are fourth-quarter growth rates - that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the low value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of real gross domestic product growth are fourth-quarter growth rates - that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the midpoint of the range forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of real gross domestic product growth are fourth-quarter growth rates - that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the high value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of real gross domestic product growth are fourth-quarter growth rates - that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the low value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The BBK Monthly GDP Growth is indexed to the quarterly estimates of real GDP growth from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and consists of three components: cycle, trend, and irregular components. For more details, see also: Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422 Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1

The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The BBK Monthly GDP Growth is indexed to the quarterly estimates of real GDP growth from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and consists of three components: cycle, trend, and irregular components. This quarterly series is aggregated from the monthly version of the series (BBKMGDP (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BBKMGDP)), using the triangle average described in Brave, Butters, and Kelley (2019) (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1) to approximate quarterly annualized (log) percent changes from the monthly series. For more details, see also: Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422 Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1

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