View the average 10-year expectation for the inflation rate among market participants, based upon Treasury securities.
View data of the inflation-adjusted interest rates on 10-year Treasury securities with a constant maturity.
Inflation as measured by the consumer price index reflects the annual percentage change in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals, such as yearly. The Laspeyres formula is generally used. International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data files.
The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_5YEAR) and 5-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_5YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 5 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).
View the inflation-adjusted value of the 50th percentile of the U.S. income distribution, as estimated by the Census Bureau.
View a measure of the average expected inflation over the five-year period that begins five years from the date data are reported.
OECD Descriptor ID: CPALTT01 OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: USA All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission
View data of the CPI, or an inflation measure derived from tracking the changes in the weighted-average price of a basket of common goods and services.
For further information regarding treasury constant maturity data, please refer to the H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).
Median expected price change next 12 months, Surveys of Consumers. The most recent value is not shown due to an agreement with the source. This data should be cited as follows: "Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Inflation Expectation© [MICH], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MICH/, (Accessed on date)" Copyright, 2016, Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan. Reprinted with permission.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate. Their estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations. For more information, please visit the <a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland<a/>.
Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 (https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57218), this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment". The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate. Their estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations. For more information, please visit the <a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland<a/>.
For further information regarding treasury constant maturity data, please refer to the H.15 Statistical Release notes (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/default.htm) and the Treasury Yield Curve Methodology (https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics/treasury-yield-curve-methodology).
OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: USA MEASURE: CPI UNIT_MEASURE: IX METHODOLOGY: N EXPENDITURE: _T ADJUSTMENT: N TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).
OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: USA MEASURE: CPI UNIT_MEASURE: PD METHODOLOGY: N EXPENDITURE: _T ADJUSTMENT: N TRANSFORMATION: GOY FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).
The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 30-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_30YEAR) and 30-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_30YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 30 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate. Their estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations. For more information, please visit the <a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland<a/>.