The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury (constant maturity) yields: Positive values may imply future growth, negative values may imply economic downturns.

View the spread between 10-Year and 3-month Treasury Constant Maturities, which is used to predict recession probabilities.

View the average 10-year expectation for the inflation rate among market participants, based upon Treasury securities.

Series is calculated as the spread between Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond© (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DBAA) and 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_10YEAR). ©2017, Moody's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, "Moody's"). All rights reserved. Moody's ratings and other information ("Moody's Information") are proprietary to Moody's and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws. Moody's Information is licensed to Client by Moody's. MOODY'S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

Series is calculated as the spread between 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_10YEAR) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR). Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: USA MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

Series is calculated as the spread between Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond© (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DAAA) and 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_10YEARM). ©2017, Moody's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, "Moody's"). All rights reserved. Moody's ratings and other information ("Moody's Information") are proprietary to Moody's and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws. Moody's Information is licensed to Client by Moody's. MOODY'S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

View data describing the spread between 10-Year and 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturities, which can indicate perceived economic outlook.

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: JPN MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: GBR MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: DEU MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: EA19 MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

View the spread between 10-Year and 3-month Treasury Constant Maturities, which is used to predict recession probabilities.

View the average 10-year expectation for the inflation rate among market participants, based upon Treasury securities.

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: IND MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: CAN MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: ITA MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: FRA MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: AUS MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

Series is calculated as the spread between Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond© (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAA) and 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_10YEARM). ©2017, Moody's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, "Moody's"). All rights reserved. Moody's ratings and other information ("Moody's Information") are proprietary to Moody's and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws. Moody's Information is licensed to Client by Moody's. MOODY'S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

Series is calculated as the spread between 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_10YEARM) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFRM). Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: CHE MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Descriptor ID: IRLTLT01 OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: ESP All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: MEX MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: GRC MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: USA MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: Q All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: SWE MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: ZAF MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

Copyright, 2016, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Inc. Reprinted with permission.

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: KOR MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: NLD MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: DNK MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: IRL MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

Series is calculated as the spread between Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond© (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AAA) and 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_10YEAR). ©2017, Moody's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, "Moody's"). All rights reserved. Moody's ratings and other information ("Moody's Information") are proprietary to Moody's and/or its licensors and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws. Moody's Information is licensed to Client by Moody's. MOODY'S INFORMATION MAY NOT BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: LUX MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Descriptor ID: IRLTLT01 OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: PRT All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission

OECD Descriptor ID: IRLTLT01 OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: POL All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: NOR MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Descriptor ID: IRLTLT01 OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: USA All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: DEU MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: Q All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: NZL MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: FIN MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: AUT MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: BEL MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: HUN MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: CHL MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

This series was constructed by the Bank of England as part of the Three Centuries of Macroeconomic Data project by combining data from a number of academic and official sources. For more information, please refer to the Three Centuries spreadsheet at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/research-datasets. Users are advised to check the underlying assumptions behind this series in the relevant worksheets of the spreadsheet. In many cases alternative assumptions might be appropriate. Users are permitted to reproduce this series in their own work as it represents Bank calculations and manipulations of underlying series that are the copyright of the Bank of England provided that underlying sources are cited appropriately. For appropriate citation please see the Three Centuries spreadsheet for guidance and a list of the underlying sources.

OECD Descriptor ID: IRLTLT01 OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: JPN All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission

OECD Descriptor ID: IRLTLT01 OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: EA19 All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: IND MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: Q All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: COL MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: DEU MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: A All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: ISR MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

OECD Descriptor ID: IRLTLT01 OECD unit ID: PC OECD country ID: GBR All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission