Skip to main content

Explore Our Apps

Release Calendar
News
Blog
My Account
Explore Our Apps
STL Fed Home Page

Release Calendar
News
Blog

Home > Categories > Academic Data

Recession Probabilities

With Tag:

Academic Data

Filter by:

View All

Filter by ""

Filter 1

Close

Sort by: Popularity
- Back
- Popularity
- Updated
- Obs End
- Obs Start
- Title
- Frequency
- Units
- Seas Adj
Selected1
- Back
- Academic Data
Browse Filters
Group 1
- Back
- View All Group
  - Back
  - Loading Filters

Academic Data

Popularity
Updated
Obs End
Obs Start
Title
Frequency
Units
Seas Adj

Popularity
Updated
Obs End
Obs Start
Title
Frequency
Units
Seas Adj

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Percentage Points, Monthly, Seasonally AdjustedDec 1959 to Feb 2026 (Mar 6)

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Percent, Monthly, Not Seasonally AdjustedJun 1967 to Dec 2025 (Feb 2)

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Percentage Points, Monthly, Seasonally AdjustedMar 1949 to Feb 2026 (Mar 6)

Subscribe to the FRED newsletter

Follow us

Saint Louis Fed linkedin page Saint Louis Fed facebook page Saint Louis Fed X page Saint Louis Fed YouTube page

Need Help?

Questions or Comments

FRED Help

Legal

Privacy Notice & Policy