Federal Reserve Economic Data

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT)

Observations

Dec 2025: 0.35
Updated: Jan 9, 2026 8:23 AM CST
Next Release Date: Feb 6, 2026
Dec 2025:  0.35  
Nov 2025:  0.35  
Oct 2025:  0.25  
Sep 2025:  0.23  
Aug 2025:  0.13  
View All

Units:

Percentage Points,
Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Monthly

Fullscreen

Notes

Source: Sahm, Claudia  

Release: Sahm Rule Recession Indicator  

Units:  Percentage Points, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Monthly

Notes:

Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.

Suggested Citation:

Sahm, Claudia, Sahm Rule Recession Indicator [SAHMCURRENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT, .

Release Tables

Related Data and Content

Data Suggestions Based On Your Search

Content Suggestions

Related Categories

Recession Probabilities Academic Data

Releases

More Series from Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Tags

Claudia Sahm Recession Indicators Academic Data Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Nation Public Domain: Citation Requested United States of America

Back to Top

Subscribe to the FRED newsletter

Follow us

 

Need Help?

Questions or Comments
FRED Help
Legal
Privacy Notice & Policy