Explore resources provided by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Categories > Academic Data > Recession Probabilities
Observation:
Jul 2022: -0.03 (+ more)Jul 2022: | -0.03 | |
Jun 2022: | 0.00 | |
May 2022: | -0.07 | |
Apr 2022: | -0.13 | |
Mar 2022: | -0.10 | |
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Units:
Percentage Points,Frequency:
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Source: Sahm, Claudia
Release: Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Units: Percentage Points, Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency: Monthly
Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.
Sahm, Claudia, Sahm Rule Recession Indicator [SAHMCURRENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT, August 17, 2022.
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