Recession Probabilities

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Percent, Monthly, Not Seasonally AdjustedJun 1967 to Jan 2023 (Mar 3)

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Percentage Points, Monthly, Seasonally AdjustedDec 1959 to Feb 2023 (Mar 10)

Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator

+1 or 0, Quarterly, Not Seasonally AdjustedQ4 1967 to Q3 2022 (Jan 27)

GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index

Percentage Points, Quarterly, Not Seasonally AdjustedQ4 1967 to Q3 2022 (Jan 27)

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Percentage Points, Monthly, Seasonally AdjustedMar 1949 to Feb 2023 (Mar 10)

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for Russia

Index, Monthly, Not Seasonally AdjustedJan 1994 to Feb 2023 (Mar 1)

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for South Korea (DISCONTINUED)

Index, Monthly, Not Seasonally AdjustedJan 1990 to Dec 2014 (2016-02-11)