Recession Probabilities

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Percentage Points, Monthly, Seasonally AdjustedDec 1959 to Dec 2025 (Jan 9)

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Percent, Monthly, Not Seasonally AdjustedJun 1967 to Dec 2025 (6 days ago)

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Percentage Points, Monthly, Seasonally AdjustedMar 1949 to Dec 2025 (Jan 9)

Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator

+1 or 0, Quarterly, Not Seasonally AdjustedQ4 1967 to Q2 2025 (Dec 23)

GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index

Percentage Points, Quarterly, Not Seasonally AdjustedQ4 1967 to Q2 2025 (Dec 23)

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for Russia

Index, Monthly, Not Seasonally AdjustedJan 1994 to Jan 2026 (Jan 30)

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for South Korea (DISCONTINUED)

Index, Monthly, Not Seasonally AdjustedJan 1990 to Dec 2014 (2016-02-11)