Recession Probabilities

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Percent, Monthly, Not Seasonally AdjustedJun 1967 to Oct 2020 (3 days ago)

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Percentage Points, Monthly, Seasonally AdjustedDec 1959 to Nov 2020 (18 hours ago)

Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator

+1 or 0, Quarterly, Not Seasonally AdjustedQ4 1967 to Q2 2020 (Oct 29)

GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index

Percentage Points, Quarterly, Not Seasonally AdjustedQ4 1967 to Q2 2020 (Oct 29)

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Percentage Points, Monthly, Seasonally AdjustedMar 1949 to Nov 2020 (18 hours ago)

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for Russia

Index, Monthly, Not Seasonally AdjustedJan 1994 to Nov 2020 (2 days ago)

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for South Korea (DISCONTINUED)

Index, Monthly, Not Seasonally AdjustedJan 1990 to Dec 2014 (2016-02-11)